cnotes Posts:24271 Followers:32
09/13/2011 07:29 PM

News & Notes - Week 3
September 13, 2011
By Phil Steele
Northcoast Sports Share
Week 3
Arizona had a young O-line making its first road trip and was also without top WR Jevon Criner. Oklahoma State dominated going 88/9pl, 80/12pl and 70/10pl on their first 3 poss for a 21-0 lead while UA had 2 FD's on their first 3 poss. OSU led 21-0 at the half and was never threatened. QB Brandon Weeden hit 22 of his first 23 passes and finished 42-53-397...

Florida International got their first ever win against a BCS foe and did it with 3 big plays. For the game Louisville had a 24-9 FD edge but UL's first drive was 10pl but not only ended on an int, Winston Fraser ret'd it 71 yds for a TD. FIU got a short pass to TY Hilton who took it 74 yds for a TD then Hilton split the DB's and got behind them for an 83 yd TD pass and FIU stunningly led 21-3. UL did blow a couple of opportunities in the game. Trailing 24-10 they were SOD on 4&1 at the FIU12, SOD on 4&13 at the FIU36 and then scored a TD with 1:49 left to pull within 24-17 but FIU rec'd the onside kick. Hilton set a school record with 201 yds receiving...

It was an interesting Friday nighter for Missouri and Arizona State. Each team settled for a some FG's after long drives and MO led 16-10 at the half thanks to a blk'd xp. ASU scored TD's on 89/10pl and 60/7pl drives and led 30-16 with 14:23 left in the game. The Devils then forced a punt on 4&18 but fmbl'd the punt then pass interference on 3&15 gave MO a FD and MO got a 25 yd TD pass on the next play. On MO's next drive they converted on 3&14 and later on 4&gl from the 3 to tie it with 2:50 left. MO did miss a 48 yd FG with :12 left and ASU won it on a TD in OT...

Oregon State came in as a banged up team vs Wisconsin and was only outgained 397-284 but didn't do themselves any favors. They had a -4 yd punt in the 1Q setting up the Badgers first TD, a 3&13, 17 yd pass 3pl later. An OSU PF pen on the punt gave UW the ball at their own 49 and Wilson hit a 10 yd TD pass on 3&5.The Badgers added a TD with :27 left in the half to lead 21-0. Once again OSU benched QB Katz early and Mannion took almost all of the snaps. OSU fmbl'd at the UW13 and was SOD at the UW17 on 2 of their last 3 drives...

It's not very often that a team has 1 FD for an entire game. In fact the last time Michigan State held an opponent to just 1 FD was back in 1944 vs Maryland. MSU scored a TD or a FG or missed a FG on their first 8 drives then got a 39 yd FR TD to lead FAU 44-0 with 8:22 left and finally punted for the first time with 3:36 left in the game. They had a 434-48 yd edge...

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Army did have a 446-292 yd edge vs San Diego State but were -3 in TO's. Army fmbl'd at the SDSt42, fmbl'd at their own 26 and trailed 14-0 but it was 14-14 at the half with Army having a 245-130 yd edge. Army was SOD at the SDSt48 and on their final drive, down by 3, were on the fringe of FG range on 3&19 from the 34 when they took a 6 yd sack and had to go for it on 4&25 and fired incomplete...

Toledo scored their first points ever vs Ohio State having lost their previous 2 vs the Buckeyes by a combined score of 87-0 in '98 and '09 as they nearly upset OSU. In fact, OSU needed a 69 yd PR with :46 left in the half to lead 21-15. In the 2H TOL had a bad snap on a 51 yd FG and on their final drive they took over with 3:08 left and got to the Buckeye15 but on 4&5 fired incomplete and came up 5 pts short. TOL had a 338-301 yd edge...

Illinois had their biggest win since 1944 as they scored on 7 consec drives and rolled to a 56-3 win. They had 27-6 FD and 519-96 yd edges. South Dakota State did not get their first FD until the 2Q and had just 54 yds offense at the half. Illinois FB Becker left the game in the 1H and may be out for the season. It was 42-3 when bkp QB O'Toole came in with 8:58 left in the 3Q guiding the team to a 30/4pl TD drive...

Tough loss for Central Michigan vs Kentucky and the key play came on a 4th down gamble. In the 1H CM went on an 81/16pl drive and settled for a 19 yd FG. Later they went 67/12pl settling for a 31 yd FG. They had a 227-93 yd edge but only led 13-6 at the half. On their 3rd 3Q poss, they went for it on 4&inches at their own 34 and were SOD. On the next play, UK got a 34 yd TD pass UK was then pinned at its own 13 when they got an 87 yd TD run to take their first lead, 20-13 and finally drove 85/13pl for a TD with 5:35 left to clinch it. CM finished with a 383-344 yd edge but lost by double digits...

Alabama's D gave up 54/16pl on the opening drive of the game for a 43 yd FG and pretty much controlled the 1H with a 171-92 yd edge settling for a 22 yd FG after one 10pl drive and led 17-3. Bama got a TD by Richardson with 6:14 left as he rushed for 111 yds and 2 TD's. Penn State then went 71/14pl incl 3&10 and 3&20 conversions and got a garbage TD with 1:53 left for a big part of their 251 yds...

North Carolina had a 5-0 TO deficit vs Rutgers and were actually outFD'd 19-17 but that is not indicative of the game. NC had a 286-91 yd edge in the 1H but due to the TO's, only led 17-12. They led 24-15 with 1:12 left in the 3Q when RU went on a 62/13pl drive including a 4&12 conversion getting a TD with 10:40 left. RU's last drive went 33/9pl but on 4&7 they were SOD at their own 42 and NC ended the game at the RU7...

Nobody gave Auburn a chance vs Mississippi State after their poor performance vs Utah St but they managed to extend the NCAA's longest win streak to 17 and were highly motivated by being nearly a TD dog at home. AU led 14-0 but after MSU tied it at 14, AU gave up a 27 yd IR TD. AU still rallied and led 34-24 at the half and then got a TD with 14:03 left in the game for a commanding 41-27 lead and even forced a MSU punt with 9:43 left. MSU went 83/12pl getting a TD with 4:51 left then forced a punt with 2:52 left. MSU drove 67/11pl. On 2nd & gl from the 2 with no time-outs, they swept QB Relf and he was tkl'd at the half yd line...

Iowa had a 10-0 lead early vs Iowa State but it was 10-10 at the half. ISU led 17-16 but UI drove 80/11pl and got a TD with 5:50 left and the 2 pt conv put them up 24-17. ISU's last drive in regulation featured a 3&16, 20 yd pass, a 3&20, 40 yd pass, a 4&1 conv and then on 3&gl got a 4 yd TD run. UI scored in the first of 3OT's with a TD and ISU faced a 4&gl at the 4 and got a TD to keep the game going. In the 3rd OT UI got a FG and ISU a TD for the win. ISU had not scored a meaningful TD vs UI since 2006...

East Carolina QB Davis had 260 yds and 4 TD's vs South Carolina but finished with just 127 yards passing, an int and was sk'd 5 times. Virginia Tech did have 20-11 FD and 332-112 yd edges but blew a couple of opportunities and actually needed a TD with 7:30 left to take their first lead of the game in their 17-10 win. VT got a 38 yd drive for a TD after a 30 yd punt, on 1st & gl from the 6 were int'd in the EZ and after having a FD at the EC14 settled for a 39 yd FG at the end of the half. VT's winning drive was 89/13pl for the TD with 7:30 left and EC's last 2 poss ended on a punt with 5:33 left from their own 26 and on 4&18 they fired incomplete from their own 43 and VT took a knee...

Idaho QB Reader threw for 299 yards and 4 TD's and UI's D had 2 IR TD's. UI finished with 424-197 yd and 23-11 FD edges. They missed a FG and settled for a FG and only led 3-0 when North Dakota got a 79 yd PR TD to stunningly lead 7-3 (9:37 2Q). ND then got a 54/1pl TD pass 14-3 (7:33 2Q). UI went 80/15pl for a TD with 1:01 left in the half then went 71/6, 58/9, 91/11, their first 3 3Q poss to lead 31-14. They blew it open late when a 19 yd IR to the ND18 set up a 1pl 1 yd TD run by Bass then 2pl later with bkp QB Goska in for ND, the Vandals got a 37 yd IR TD with 4:41 left for the 44-14 final...

Tulsa/Tulane was a 3-3 game with 4:08 left in the half. TLN was at the TLS35 but on 3&15 they were int'd and TLS went 73/6pl for a TD and a 10-3 lead. TLN's first two 3Q drives ended in a missed 44 yd FG and a fmbl at the TLS23 and TLS had TD drives of 82, 77 and 67 yds to go ahead 31-3. TLN fmbl'd at the TLS39, was SOD at the TLS42 and punted on their final 3 drives...

The key play o the Arkansas St/Memphis game happened early 2Q when Memphis, down 10-0, was SOD on 4&1 at the ASU29. ASU got a 71 yd TD pass on the next play to make it 16-0 and would go 82/13pl and 90/11pl for TD's on their next 2 poss to blow it open at the half. ASU scored 2 TDs and a FG on their first three 3Q poss, the 2nd 2 led by bkp QB Smith and they had a 611-169 yd edge...

Ohio U had a dominant 22-9 FD and 392-124 yd edges vs Gardner-Webb. OU got scoring drives of 40 and 28 yards and also got an IR TD but also blew some scoring drives. They had a 1st & gl at the 5 but fmbl'd, missed a 53 yd FG, fmbl'd at the GW47, were int'd at the GW35, SOD at the GW15 and settled for a 24 yd FG with 4:51 left...

Dan Persa sat out a 2nd straight game and Kolter hit 10-14-104 yd and rushed for 109 for Northwestern. Kolter inj'd his shoulder and only returned for a few plays later with 3rd string QB Trevor Siemian guiding 2 drives incl a 1 yd TD pass with 11:01 left and then Watkins was in for the final NW 2 drives. NW on 4&8 at the Eastern Illinois 22 just ran the ball in the line for 3 yds with 1:27 left and EI got a 76 yd run and a 3 yd garbage TD with :07 left to make the stats closer than they really were at NW 437-341...

Nothing misleading about the Washington State/UNLV final. WSU scored on their first 5 drives of the game as Marshall Lobbestael hit 24-32-361 and they then scored on their first 3 drives of the 2H with the 3rd drive being led by bkp Halliday. WSU made it 59-0 with 5:29 left and LV's only score came on a 95 yd KR TD. WSU's final drive was SOD at the LV20 and they also had a 35 yd FG blk'd...

Southern Miss appeared in control vs Marshall as they were up 17-3 and had the ball with 2:00 left 1H. They only got off a 27 yd punt and MU went 41/7pl for a TD, 17-10. In the game SM turned it over SIX times and had a punt blk'd. SM fmbl'd at their own 35 early 3Q setting up a MU TD. MU took the lead with a TD with 1:19 left 3Q. SM was pinned at its 1 and RB Hardy was tkl'd for a safety and MU led 26-17. SM fmbl'd at the MU27, settled for a 28 yd FG then rec'd the onside kick but as you would expect, with 1:00 left on 3&10 ended the game on their 6th TO, an int at the 43...

New Mexico St/Minnesota looked to be a high scoring game as at the half, NMSt had a 21-14 lead and a 271-199 yd edge. They even blew a couple of scoring opportunities in the 1H as UM had a 1st & gl at the 4 but was int'd in the EZ and NMSt missed a 45 yd FG. UM missed a 38 yd FG in the 3Q but down 28-21, the Gophers had a 1st & gl at the 7 and got the game tying TD with 7:54 left to make it 28-28 but replays respotted the ball at the footline and on 4&gl at the footline UM was stopped. NMSt got 4 FD's' and punted and UM got to the NMSt25. Coach Kill had a seizure on the sideline and the game was halted for a half hr and when they ret'd UM's 4th&10 pass fell incomplete and NMSt held on for the upset...

Texas/BYU was played in 98 degrees heat and BYU wilted in the 2H with UT having a 201?67 yd edge. UT QB Gilbert was benched and QB's Ash and McCoy alternated on every poss the rest of the game. Gilbert had a couple of costly int's and BYU jumped to a 13-0 lead. UT settled for a 23 yd FG late 1Q. In the 2H UT was SOD on 4&1 at the BYU13 and then up 17-16, had the ball at the BYU30. RB Brown broke off a run and had a shot but was tkl'd at the 14 of BYU and the Longhorns took a knee 2x...

Not many teams survive a defensive TO for a TD. It's extremely rare when a team wins a game having 2 def TD's go against them. Georgia pretty much controlled the South Carolina game from start to finish. In fact 3 of their first 4 drives got to the RZ but they settled for 3 FG's and actually missed a chipshot 33 yd FG and led 6-3. SC ran a fake punt on 4&7 at their own 32 and DT Ingram got a FD and the 276 lb'r raced 68 yds for a TD. In the 3Q UGA appeared in control again leading 20-14 and had the ball at the SC39. RB Crowell, who hurt his ribs in the 1H was not 100% and fmbl'd when SC ret'd it 57 yds to the 5 basically a TO for a TD as SC got a 5 yd "drive" for a TD. SC then got a 25 yd IR TD to lead 28-20. UGA tied it and then retook the lead 35-31 but again was sk'd & fmbl'd and SC ret'd it for a TD. At the end, SC rec'd an onside kick and got a FD and took a knee. Basically 4 def and ST TD's vs UGA and they only lost by 3...

Connecticut/Vanderbilt was a pure defensive struggle. The two teams combined for 12 sks for -72 yds, there was 2 def TD's and a blk'd punt for a TD. CT fmbl'd at their 42 setting up a 42/1pl TD pass for VU and VU went 80/6pl for a TD to lead 14-3 after 1Q with the 2Q producing 5 FD's combined and 7 punts and 2 TO's. After an int CT drove 6 yd for a 28 yd FG then blk'd a punt for a TD, 14-13 and got a 64 yd FR TD in the 4Q to lead 21-14. VU got a 50 yd IR TD with 6:45 left to tie then after a 48 yd run by Stacy got a 31 yd FG with 2:56 left for the lead. UConn on 4&16 fired incomplete from their own 25 with 2:09 left.

GAME UNDER THEIR BELT ADVANTAGE

Florida was impressive for a 2nd straight week. They settled for FG's on their first 2 drives. UAB had 2 of their first 3 drives getting 2 FD's and had another FD wiped out by a hold on the first drive and punted. On their 3rd drive UAB got a 38 yd TD pass after 2 FD's but it was wiped out by illegal shift and on 4&2 they were SOD. UAB had a snap go over the P's head for a safety with 2:32 left and after the extremely poor free kick UF drove 52/5pl for a TD with 1:09 left to score 9 pts in the final 2:32 and open it up 25-0. UF had a 308-95 yd edge at the half. In the 2H UAB had a FD at the UF30 and fmbl'd then ran a fake punt from its own 36 and was SOD setting up a UF 36/3pl TD drive. The Gators finished with 512-212 yd and 28-11 FD edges and led 39-0 after 3Q before putting the offense away in the 4Q. UF had the advantage of a game under their belts as both teams who didn't play the opening weekend were blown out...

Darron Thomas matched a school record with 6 TD passes as Oregon rebounded from their LSU loss with a 69-20 win. The loss snapped Nevada's 7 gm win streak as they came out of last season 13-1 and ranked #11. Tyler Lantrip took over at QB for Kaepernick (NFL) and hit 21-35-219 yds and rushed 10x for 51 yds. UO led 55-13 after 3Q and the Ducks scored 2 TD's in the last 2:24, one after UN was SOD at their own 27 and the 2nd on a 68 yd IR TD with :20 left.

REPLACEMENTS

Mike Glennon, the man who replaced Russell Wilson at North Carolina State hit 24-41-315 yds but a lot of it came in the 2H with NCSt down 34-13. At the half Wake Forest had a 278-127 yd edge. With Tanner Price at QB, WF led SU by 15 when he was inj'd in Wk1. He ret'd to the lineup and hit 22-35-297 yds completing his first 8 passes. NCSt did pull within 34-27 on a 4&10, 63 yd TD pass with 5:34 left. NCSt's final drive got to the WF38 and on 4&10 they dropped what would have been a sure a FD pass.

POINTSPREAD PLAYS OF THE GAME

Keith Price is replacing Jake Locker at Washington and he hit his first 8 passes hitting 18-25-315 yds. UW survived the dreaded 14 pt swing in the 2Q threatening to take a 28-7 lead on 3&8 from the 10 Price was int'd and ret'd 99 yds for a TD. In the 1H UW had a 370-192 yd edge and led 28-14. Hawaii did fmbl at the UW5 and were SOD at the UW9 in the 1H. The pointspread play of the game came after UH took over at the UW27 following a -5 yd punt and they trailed 38-26. They got a TD with 1:39 left for the apparent backdoor cover. The xp would have put them under the spread but UW blk'd the xp and ret'd it for 2 and instead of only trailing 38-33 it was an 8 pt game at 40-32. UW rec'd the onside kick...

USC had a 416-319 yd edge vs Utah but a 3-1 TO deficit. The Trojans were SOD at the Utah32, int'd at the Utah15, had a FD at the Utah12 and fmbl'd and Utah which had been outgained 239-68 drove 84/12pl for a TD with :34 left in the half to get back in it at 10-7. USC led 17-7 when a fmbl set up Utah for a 51/1pl reverse to the 1 and a TD on the next play to make it 17-14. USC had a 47 yd FG wiped out by a false start pen and punted and the next 8 poss were punts. Utah took over at their own 33 and on the controversial final drive they had an int dropped by a LB and on 4&10 were spotted short but they reversed the spot via replay it and gave them the FD at the 38. A pass interfere pen gave Utah a FD to the 23 with :11 left and the Utes lined up for the game tying 41 yd FG. It was blk and ret'd for a TD. The officials originally wiped it off the board as the USC players came on the field while the ret was in progress and the final was announced 17-14. The P12 stepped in and said the P12 rule is that unsportsmanlike conduct penalties by substitutes are enforced as dead ball fouls. Therefore the TD was allowed making it 23-14 and giving USC the frontdoor cover.

FRONTDOOR AND BACKDOOR COVERS

AF came in expecting an upset and while they actually had a 416-410 yd edge, AF gained 128 of their yards in the 4Q when trailing 35-9. TCU had the game locked up 35-9 and AF surprisingly went for a 22 yd FG on 4&4 with 8:18 left. Still their next 3 poss were punts and AF took over at their 22 with the score 35-12 and still Under the Total. AF would get 2 FD's and then a 33 yd pass to the 4 with :28 left and with :04 left in the game, a 1 yd TD run put the game Over the total, 35-19. Once again, AF had 128 of their yds in the 4Q...

Colorado St has won the last 16 meetings in this series and are 17-0-1 vs N Colorado. This time they had 28-9 FD and 501-216 yd edges but NC got a garbage TD with 6:43 left to only lose by 19. CSU got a safety with 10:23 left for a 33-7 lead and had the game in hand. After the free kick they got 2 FD's to the NC28 and were running out the clock when they fired incomplete on 4th down. On the next play, NC got a 66 yd TD run to get the backdoor with 6:27 left. CSU went 47/10pl and they ran out the clock.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24271 Followers:32
09/13/2011 07:32 PM

Games to Watch - Week 3

September 13, 2011

Thursday - LSU at Mississippi State (ESPN, 8:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

As of Tuesday, most books had LSU favored by three or 3 ½ with a total of 48 1/2. The Tigers have to go on the road on a short week of preparation for Thursday's game in Starkville, but they are coming off an easy 49-7 home win over Northwestern St. On the other hand, Mississippi St. is off a 60-minute battle at Auburn that went down to the final play. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, Dan Mullen didn't call for a pass - that would've resulted in a subsequent snap - and the final play was stuffed inches short of the end zone. The 41-34 loss at AU leaves MSU in desperation mode, but a win over LSU will have the Bulldogs right back in the SEC West mix. However, LSU has won 11 in a row against MSU and has an 11-3 spread record in the last 14 head-to-head meetings. The 'over' had cashed in six straight MSU-LSU games before last year's encounter saw the 'under' prevail. LSU needed a goal-line stand at crunch time to beat MSU by a 30-26 count two years ago. Russell Shepard, LSU's starting WR, will not play (suspension) but can return next week at WVU.




Saturday - Auburn at Clemson (ABC, 12:00 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

As of Tuesday, most spots were listing Clemson as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 59. Dabo Swinney's squad trailed Troy at halftime in Week 1, only to outscore the Trojans 30-3 in the second half en route to a 43-19 victory. Clemson struggled for four full quarters last week, eventually beating Wofford by a 35-27 score. Auburn wasn't impressive in its opener, needing 10 points in the last 2:07 to rally past Utah St. for a 42-38 triumph. Gene Chizik's team played much better in Week 2, knocking off Mississippi St. 41-34 as a six-point home underdog. Barrett Trotter has played well at QB, throwing five TD passes compared to only one interception so far. When these teams met last year, Clemson raced out to a 17-3 halftime lead but Cam Newton rallied Auburn to a 27-24 win in overtime. During Chizik's tenure to date, AU has compiled a 2-2 spread record in four road underdog situations. As for Clemson, it is 7-6 ATS as a home 'chalk' under Swinney.




Saturday - Tennessee at Florida (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
Matchup Skinny

The early action Sunday night came in on Tennessee, prompting the line to move from nine to 8 ½. But the Monday money was all Gators, who were 9 ½-point home ‘chalk’ late Tuesday afternoon. The total opened at 50 ½. Florida has covered the number in back-to-back home wins over FAU (41-3) and UAB (39-0). Meanwhile, UT quarterback Tyler Bray has played lights out in wins over Montana (42-16) and Cincy (45-23). Bray threw for a career-high 405 yards and had five TDs (4 passing, 1 rushing) against the Bearcats. UF is 18-9 ATS as a home favorite dating back to 2007. The Gators have won six in a row over the Vols, beating them by double-digit margins in each of the last four meetings. UT has seen the ‘over’ cash at a lucrative 11-3 clip on Derek Dooley’s watch.




Other Games to Watch
Matchup Skinny

Michigan State at Notre Dame - As of Tuesday, most books had Notre Dame installed as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 51. The Irish have lost a pair of nail-biters to start the year, falling 23-20 at home to USF before losing 35-31 at Michigan. Brian Kelly's team gave up a 16-yard TD pass with two ticks remaining at The Big House. Turnovers were the Irish's undoing, as they committed five of them. Michigan St. has won a pair of home games against soft competition, beating Youngstown St. 28-6 before dealing out cream-cheese treatment in a 44-0 win over FAU. Kirk Cousins is one of the Big Ten's top QBs, throwing for three TDs without an interception in the Spartans' first two games. B.J. Cunningham (14 catches for 203 yards) is his favorite target.

Stanford at Arizona - As of Tuesday, most spots had Stanford tabbed as a 10-point favorite with a total of 54. Andrew Luck has led the Cardinal to a pair of easy wins and covers vs. San Jose St. and at Duke. He has six TD passes and only one interception to date. Arizona is coming off a 37-14 loss at Oklahoma St. last Thursday. The Wildcats will once again be without their star WR Julian Criner, who recently underwent an appendectomy. Gamblers have feasted on Arizona as a home underdog during Mike Stoops' eight-year tenure, cashing tickets at a 12-4-1 clip in 17 such spots. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS when catching double digits at home under Stoops.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24271 Followers:32
09/14/2011 01:32 AM

Wiz of Odds: Parlay cards fun play or sucker bet?

My father Ed has never been much of a gambler. Years ago, he was traveling through Minnesota and decided to stop at a local casino. OK, the sign that advertised the $2.99 all-you-can-eat breakfast got him in the door.

Once inside, he surveyed the crowd of septuagenarians who seemed under a spell watching lemons, oranges, apples, lemons, oranges, apples, continuously spinning. He made a note to himself that he would not risk his retirement fund on the whim of some slot machine.

“It’s amazing how fast people want to give away their money,” Ed said, shaking his head.

He saddled into a seat at the counter and ordered the pancakes. My dad is no fool. Slot machines are by far the biggest moneymaker in the casino industry.

Although they seldom offer a decent payout to a customer, the machines never ask for a day off, they don’t require benefits such as health insurance or a 401k plan. It’s easy to see why gambling houses love slots.

For some of the same reasons, gambling houses embrace parlay cards.

Parlays offer a gambler a big payoff with minimal investment. Odds on a two-team parlay are generally 13/5. A three-teamer is 6/1. Pick four winners and it’s 10/1. It all seems so easy.

Yes, a parlay is a sucker bet and the chances of winning are about the same as playing slots. But we’re trying to beat the system, right?

So if you can’t resist the urge to parlay up, perhaps this method of madness used by one of my trusted buddies in Las Vegas will do the trick.

Each week during the college football season, he puts 100 simoleons on a two-team parlay. If it hits, he gets back 360 simoleons (the 260 payout plus his original 100 investment).

He’ll then reinvest 330 simoleons on one game. Lose and he’s out 70 simoleons. Win and he gets back 630, a profits of 560.

Even if he loses the 100 on the front end, he has to hit the back-to-back wager only once in every five tries to stay ahead of the game.

Patience is the key.

“I don’t necessarily roll it back in the same day,” he says. “I like to savior the victory for a while and then fire up on one game to bring the money home. The two-teamer is just a feeler.”

Three-team parlays are strictly forbidden.

“A two-team parlay saves you vigorish in the long run where a consistent three-team parlay bettor will eventually have to get a second job,” he says.
He sometimes tweaks the bet on the back end by not taking the 30 simoleon profit and putting in an additional 25 simoleons in play to make the all-or-nothing wager 385 to win 350.

If it hits, he gets back 735 from the investment of 125.

“That means I have to hit only once in six times to essentially break even,” he says.

His reason for wagering this way is simple.

“I have trouble laying points,” he says. “I don’t mind taking points, but often I’d rather just play odds.

“The sad thing is, in all 7-point favorites — if you bet them straight up to win — you have to lay odds usually around 3/1. That means you have to win 75 percent of the time to break even.”

He pointed to games last Saturday involving Iowa and Mississippi State. Iowa, on the road at Iowa State, was a 6.5-point favorite and -250 to win outright. Mississippi State was a 5.5-point favorite at Auburn and -225 on the moneyline. Both teams lost.

Nonetheless, moneyline bets remain popular, even with the long odds. And much like parlay bets, they target the low-risk bettor looking for high reward.
But again, we’re all just trying to beat the system, right?

WEEK 2 IMPRESSIONS

Is Steele Jantz the real deal? The Iowa State quarterback struggled mightily in his first three quarters against Division I-AA Northern Iowa, but he has been nothing short of electrifying since, leading the Cyclones to consecutive come-from-behind victories.

Iowa State hasn’t started a season 3-0 since 2005. On Friday night, the Cyclones are slight underdogs at Connecticut. Hmmm.

I suspect Ohio State has been practicing for the Miami game since the beginning of fall drills, perhaps earlier.

If Brian Kelly can’t win at Notre Dame, nobody can.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24271 Followers:32
09/14/2011 01:36 AM

Exposing the Top 25: Where the NCAAF polls went wrong

Each week throughout the college football season, we dissect the new Top 25 rankings and post what we feel is our most overrated team, most underrated team, and an unranked team that should be in the Top 25.

MOST OVERRATED TOP-25 TEAM: Nebraska Cornhuskers

While the Cornhuskers do belong in the Top 25, I'm not so sure their early-season performances warrant a Top-10 ranking.

The Huskers may resolve a few of their issues in practice this week, but they have slipped into an alarming trend of starting games with little energy and direction. Bo Pelini is 32-12 SU so far in Lincoln and win or lose, his team always came to play. But that hasn't been the case in their previous three games going back to last season's bowl game - an ugly loss to Washington, which happens to be this week's opponent.

Nebraska has looked flat at the start of the game and at the start of the second half for three straight outings. And the passing game has been little more than "throw deep and pray." The offensive line is young and having trouble opening running lanes. And the defensive line, which is supposed to be the strength of the team, was MIA against Fresno State, who started a brand new offensive line, Saturday.

Maybe the Big Red rights the ship this week, but for now they're laying sizeable points and they are my most overrated Top-25 team.

MOST UNDERRATED TOP-25 TEAM: None

I could easily put Virginia Tech in this slot because the Hokies did drop a couple of rungs in the latest rankings. And I did believe they were underrated in the polls in last week's article.

I still believe this team is better than where they're ranked, but I can't argue with the fact that they lost a few votes after a shaky performance against an East Carolina defense that leaves a lot to be desired. Unfortunately, with their schedule, we won’t find out the true strength of the Hokies for a couple more weeks.

It's a rare week when I feel that the polls, other than Nebraska, are on target.

UNRANKED TEAM THAT SHOULD BE RANKED: Central Florida Golden Knights

The Golden Knights quietly slammed Boston College 30-3, just one week after a 62-0 win over FCS Charleston Southern. T

Central Florida is fresh off of an 11-3 conference-winning season and a win over the Georgia Bulldogs in the Liberty Bowl. The defense was outstanding, despite returning just four starters. Jeff Godfrey is arguably the best QB in C-USA and the team owns the top running back tandem, as well. They outgained Boston College by a 422-141 margin, including a 235-57 yardage advantage on the ground.

This weekend's visit to Florida International promises to be a fantastic matchup that most college football fans won't even know about. If UCF gets by FIU, they had better be ranked next Monday.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24271 Followers:32
09/14/2011 01:38 AM

NCAAF betting: Targeting midweek line moves

Here's a quick look at a number of games that are seeing some early line movement ahead of this weekend's contests.

NCAAF Week 3 Live Odds

No. 4 Boise State at Toledo (20.5, 58.5)

Most books opened with Toledo set as a 17.5-point home underdog this week but that line has quickly moved to +20.5.

Toledo took Ohio State down to the wire in a 27-22 loss as a 17.5-point underdog last weekend, while Boise State is coming off a bye.

“We almost pulled off a huge upset,” Toledo running back Adonis Thomas told reporters. “To be in the same situation again with a fourth-ranked opponent, we know what we have to do to get the win.”

Central Michigan at Western Michigan (-8.5, 56)

Western Michigan was a 6.5-point favorite at the open until bettors got their hands on it. Now you’ll see the Broncos set at -8.5 across the board.

Central Michigan, which held a lead at Kentucky before dropping a 27-13 decision as a 10-point underdog, is actually 4-0-1 against the spread in its last five games against Western Michigan.

Akron at Cincinnati (-34.5, 56)

Oddsmakers can’t set this line high enough right now. They opened with the Bearcats set at -30 and it’s already up to -34.5. Cincinnati is looking to bounce back after a blowout loss to the Volunteers.

Meanwhile, the terrible Akron Zips are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games in September and 3-7 against the number in their last 10 road games. They have been outscored 83-3 in two games this season.

Kent State at Kansas State (-17.5, N/A)

The books sent out Kansas State as around a two-touchdown favorite, but that line has moved to -17.5 in just over the last two days. K-State pulled off a 10-7 comeback win over Eastern Kentucky but couldn’t come close to covering as a 26-point favorite. They had a bye last week so maybe that will help the club work the kinks out.

No. 18 Arizona State at Illinois (-1.5, N/A)

Illinois was originally pegged as a 1.5-point underdog. The spread has flipped since then, now favoring the Fighting Illini by 1.5 points.

Arizona State escaped with an overtime victory at home to Mizzou last weekend after MU missed a field goal late in regulation, but couldn’t cover as a 10-point favorite. The Sun Devils are now 0-2 against the number to start the season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24271 Followers:32
09/14/2011 01:41 AM

Ear to the gridiron: Big Ten betting news and notes


Michigan madness

The Wolverines are 2-0 and they just won the most exciting game of the season. Fans are giddy. There’s a problem, though. The team is pretty terrible. The offense is wildly inconsistent and only Denard Robinson’s magic and some horrible secondary play by Notre Dame got them the win.

The defense is better than last year, but that’s not saying much and they are still far from good. Michigan has an incredible amount of work to do before conference play starts. It plays a hopelessly-outclassed Eastern Michigan squad next time out, so it’s a perfect opportunity to work on those weaknesses.

If the Wolverines don’t look like a more polished, disciplined team on Saturday, then there are serious issues. Michigan is favored by 29 points.

Kirk Cousins seeks revenge

Two years ago, Cousins had a chance to lead his Michigan State Spartans to a win in South Bend, but he threw a lousy interception late in the game to seal the Notre Dame victory. Now he has revenge on his mind, and he has a better team around him than he did then.

Notre Dame has all sorts of vulnerabilities to exploit. If the Spartans can expose them, then it’s really time to start believing in MSU. The Irish are favored by 5.5.

Jerry Kill falls ill

The new Minnesota coach has a history of seizures, and the problem struck again late in his home debut against New Mexico State Saturday. He’s reportedly fine, but he likely won’t return to practice until at least Wednesday.

Kill has the Gophers working well together despite two losses, and against USC in the opener, they showed some periodic flashes of brilliance. This is a team that can’t afford any distractions, though, so it will be very important to watch how Kill recovers and whether his issues limit him in coming weeks.

Minnesota is a 3.5-point favorite at home against Miami-Ohio.

Dave Doeren goes home

Doeren, the former popular Wisconsin defensive coordinator, became the first assistant who served under Bret Bielema to get a head coaching gig when he took over at Northern Illinois in the offseason. Now Doeren brings his squad to Madison for the biggest game of his career.

Doeren and the Huskies are obviously badly outmatched by the Badgers, but they will have more insight to their opponents than most teams could ever dream of. Can Doeren and company make this one at least interesting? The Badgers are favored by 16 points.

Penn State QB issues

Having two starting quarterbacks is only slightly better than having none. The Nittany Lions were one of many teams that came into the season with unresolved QB questions. Unfortunately, while others have figured things out, Penn State doesn’t seem any closer to a resolution.

The lack of a chosen starter has unquestionably been a distraction that is hurting the team. If Joe Paterno still wants to prove he can coach, he needs to make a statement, pick a horse to run with, and let things turn out as they will.

This week the Lions visit Temple where they’re favored by 9.5 points. This would be the perfect chance to pick a starter and let him build confidence.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24271 Followers:32
09/14/2011 06:16 PM

Spartans Next Up For Winless Notre Dame

Michigan State is No. 14 in the latest Don Best Linemakers Poll.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have been anything but lucky in their first two games of the season. They may need some luck to notch their first victory of the season on Saturday against the 14th-ranked Michigan State Spartans and reverse a strong trend favoring the road team in this annual matchup.

Game time is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. (ET) with national television coverage provided by NBC.

Notre Dame opened as a 5-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen with early betting action on Michigan State pushing the line down to 4 ½ in some places. The total opened at 49 ½ and has risen as high as 51 so far.

The Irish (0-2) have lost their first two games by a combined seven points, failing to cover the spread in both of them as favorites. They took a 24-7 lead into the fourth quarter at Michigan Stadium last Saturday in the first-ever night game there before an NCAA-record 114,804 fans.

But Heisman Trophy candidate Denard Robinson threw three touchdown passes for the Wolverines in the fourth quarter as the home team outscored the visitors 28-7 the rest of the way in a 35-31 victory.

Meanwhile, the Spartans (2-0) are coming off a pair of very easy wins against weak opponents, beating Youngstown State and Florida Atlanta by a combined score of 72-6. They split two games against the spread with the total going ‘under’ in both.

Michigan State should be prepared for a much higher-scoring game here though since the ‘over’ is 6-1 in the past seven meetings.

Notre Dame would seem to have an edge as the host this week against the Spartans, but the road team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games between them. The home team has won the last three meetings straight up after the road team had won each of the previous seven.

Last year’s game between the two midwestern schools ended in dramatic fashion, with Michigan State’s Aaron Bates throwing a game-winning 29-yard touchdown pass to Charlie Gantt on a fake field-goal in overtime. The Irish had kicked a 33-yard field goal on their first possession but lost to the Spartans for the third time in four years, 34-31.

Notre Dame quarterback Dayne Crist threw for 367 yards and four touchdowns in that game and will be watching this year’s meeting from the bench. Crist was benched at halftime of the team’s 23-20 home loss to South Florida in the season opener and replaced by Tommy Rees, who started at Michigan and threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns with two interceptions.

The Irish will be without starting tight end Mike Ragone after he underwent surgery to repair a torn ACL suffered against the Wolverines. Ragone is not much of a receiving threat and known more for his blocking, as he has made only 11 catches in his entire career, including one last week.

South Bend's forecast for Saturday's tilt could not be any better with clear skies and the afternoon high hitting 72.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24271 Followers:32
09/14/2011 06:20 PM

Texas A&M Expected To Roll Idaho Vandals

The Aggies are 5-TD favorites at home Saturday vs. the Idaho Vandals.
Mike Sherman insists that his team is not bothered by any conference realignment talk. The Texas Aggies certainly looked focused on football in their season opener, and now seek another dubya when the Idaho Vandals come to College Station this Saturday night.

Opening odds at Don Best had Texas A&M giving 36, and that's down to 35½ at most windows. The total opened at 54½, but has since risen a full two points.

A lot of silliness and petty grudges are currently blocking the Aggies and their desire to move to the Southeastern Conference. But mostly it's the lawyers and money that could keep A&M in the Big 12, or whatever it becomes. One thing you know won't prevail is any common sense. Back to the football game.

The No. 11 Aggies looked pretty darn good in a 46-14 win two weeks ago over Southern Methodist. Defense set up an early 14-0 lead and the offense put the last 26 points of the game on the board. Texas A&M had the 14½-point cover heading into the locker room ahead 33-14.

This performance came about a week after I told Don Best's Kenny White that my, er, the Aggies were overrated. It's a prediction that could still pan out, especially once A&M gets into what could be their final Big 12 schedule. This will be the last game that's anything close to a cakewalk until the Aggies take on Kansas State and Kansas back-to-back in November; a home tilt with Oklahoma State and a trip to Cowboys Stadium to collide with Arkansas await A&M the next two weeks.

As exciting as Ryan Tannehill, Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael were on the offensive side in the SMU game, the defense answered the bell very well in the win over the Mustangs. The unit entered the season with the most question marks, a very big one being the loss of Von Miller, now of the Denver Broncos.

Tony Jerod-Eddie led a very good day for the defensive line while Sean Porter topped the linebacker play. The LB corps will have some extra depth for this contest with sophomore Damontre Moore back from his suspension.

Senior Trent Hunter and junior Steven Campbell were the DB's who picked off the two early Kyle Padron passes in the game against the Mustangs. That led to a QB change that immediately brought dividends for June Junes and the SMU offense before the Aggies defense went into bend, no-break scheme.

It's the first road contest of the year for head coach Robb Akey and the Vandals. Idaho (1-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) dropped its season opener to Bowling Green, 32-15, as a 6-point favorite before taking those frustrations out on the Fighting Sioux of North Dakota this past Saturday, 44-14, in a game that didn't make the college football betting board.

The Vandals fell behind Bowling Green early due to breakdowns in pass coverage before the Falcons let the running game take things over. Three turnovers also didn't help the Idaho cause, and from the Don Best Obvious Statement Department, playing mistake-free ball is imperative in this contest.

Taking the crowd out of the game will be impossible. The Aggies will show up wanting this to become a kissing contest; if you know anything about Texas A&M traditions, then you know what I mean by that.

It could easily become one of those 56-7 games. An Idaho cover will depend on when Sherman pulls the bulk of his starters in the second half.

Kickoff from Kyle Field is set for 7:00 p.m. (ET), with FOX Sports Southwest providing the broadcast via pay-per-view. The Lone Star State recently enjoyed a brief respite from the heat wave, but Saturday's forecast remains a hot one with the thermometer likely still in low-90s for the start.

I don't believe any rain is in the forecast for this part of the world until sometime after the end of the Mayan calendar

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24271 Followers:32
09/14/2011 06:23 PM

News & Notes - Week 3

September 14, 2011

Week 3

Arizona had a young O-line making its first road trip and was also without top WR Jevon Criner. Oklahoma State dominated going 88/9pl, 80/12pl and 70/10pl on their first 3 poss for a 21-0 lead while UA had 2 FD's on their first 3 poss. OSU led 21-0 at the half and was never threatened. QB Brandon Weeden hit 22 of his first 23 passes and finished 42-53-397...

Florida International got their first ever win against a BCS foe and did it with 3 big plays. For the game Louisville had a 24-9 FD edge but UL's first drive was 10pl but not only ended on an int, Winston Fraser ret'd it 71 yds for a TD. FIU got a short pass to TY Hilton who took it 74 yds for a TD then Hilton split the DB's and got behind them for an 83 yd TD pass and FIU stunningly led 21-3. UL did blow a couple of opportunities in the game. Trailing 24-10 they were SOD on 4&1 at the FIU12, SOD on 4&13 at the FIU36 and then scored a TD with 1:49 left to pull within 24-17 but FIU rec'd the onside kick. Hilton set a school record with 201 yds receiving...

It was an interesting Friday nighter for Missouri and Arizona State. Each team settled for a some FG's after long drives and MO led 16-10 at the half thanks to a blk'd xp. ASU scored TD's on 89/10pl and 60/7pl drives and led 30-16 with 14:23 left in the game. The Devils then forced a punt on 4&18 but fmbl'd the punt then pass interference on 3&15 gave MO a FD and MO got a 25 yd TD pass on the next play. On MO's next drive they converted on 3&14 and later on 4&gl from the 3 to tie it with 2:50 left. MO did miss a 48 yd FG with :12 left and ASU won it on a TD in OT...

Oregon State came in as a banged up team vs Wisconsin and was only outgained 397-284 but didn't do themselves any favors. They had a -4 yd punt in the 1Q setting up the Badgers first TD, a 3&13, 17 yd pass 3pl later. An OSU PF pen on the punt gave UW the ball at their own 49 and Wilson hit a 10 yd TD pass on 3&5.The Badgers added a TD with :27 left in the half to lead 21-0. Once again OSU benched QB Katz early and Mannion took almost all of the snaps. OSU fmbl'd at the UW13 and was SOD at the UW17 on 2 of their last 3 drives...

It's not very often that a team has 1 FD for an entire game. In fact the last time Michigan State held an opponent to just 1 FD was back in 1944 vs Maryland. MSU scored a TD or a FG or missed a FG on their first 8 drives then got a 39 yd FR TD to lead FAU 44-0 with 8:22 left and finally punted for the first time with 3:36 left in the game. They had a 434-48 yd edge...

Army did have a 446-292 yd edge vs San Diego State but were -3 in TO's. Army fmbl'd at the SDSt42, fmbl'd at their own 26 and trailed 14-0 but it was 14-14 at the half with Army having a 245-130 yd edge. Army was SOD at the SDSt48 and on their final drive, down by 3, were on the fringe of FG range on 3&19 from the 34 when they took a 6 yd sack and had to go for it on 4&25 and fired incomplete...

Toledo scored their first points ever vs Ohio State having lost their previous 2 vs the Buckeyes by a combined score of 87-0 in '98 and '09 as they nearly upset OSU. In fact, OSU needed a 69 yd PR with :46 left in the half to lead 21-15. In the 2H TOL had a bad snap on a 51 yd FG and on their final drive they took over with 3:08 left and got to the Buckeye15 but on 4&5 fired incomplete and came up 5 pts short. TOL had a 338-301 yd edge...

Illinois had their biggest win since 1944 as they scored on 7 consec drives and rolled to a 56-3 win. They had 27-6 FD and 519-96 yd edges. South Dakota State did not get their first FD until the 2Q and had just 54 yds offense at the half. Illinois FB Becker left the game in the 1H and may be out for the season. It was 42-3 when bkp QB O'Toole came in with 8:58 left in the 3Q guiding the team to a 30/4pl TD drive...

Tough loss for Central Michigan vs Kentucky and the key play came on a 4th down gamble. In the 1H CM went on an 81/16pl drive and settled for a 19 yd FG. Later they went 67/12pl settling for a 31 yd FG. They had a 227-93 yd edge but only led 13-6 at the half. On their 3rd 3Q poss, they went for it on 4&inches at their own 34 and were SOD. On the next play, UK got a 34 yd TD pass UK was then pinned at its own 13 when they got an 87 yd TD run to take their first lead, 20-13 and finally drove 85/13pl for a TD with 5:35 left to clinch it. CM finished with a 383-344 yd edge but lost by double digits...

Alabama's D gave up 54/16pl on the opening drive of the game for a 43 yd FG and pretty much controlled the 1H with a 171-92 yd edge settling for a 22 yd FG after one 10pl drive and led 17-3. Bama got a TD by Richardson with 6:14 left as he rushed for 111 yds and 2 TD's. Penn State then went 71/14pl incl 3&10 and 3&20 conversions and got a garbage TD with 1:53 left for a big part of their 251 yds...

North Carolina had a 5-0 TO deficit vs Rutgers and were actually outFD'd 19-17 but that is not indicative of the game. NC had a 286-91 yd edge in the 1H but due to the TO's, only led 17-12. They led 24-15 with 1:12 left in the 3Q when RU went on a 62/13pl drive including a 4&12 conversion getting a TD with 10:40 left. RU's last drive went 33/9pl but on 4&7 they were SOD at their own 42 and NC ended the game at the RU7...

Nobody gave Auburn a chance vs Mississippi State after their poor performance vs Utah St but they managed to extend the NCAA's longest win streak to 17 and were highly motivated by being nearly a TD dog at home. AU led 14-0 but after MSU tied it at 14, AU gave up a 27 yd IR TD. AU still rallied and led 34-24 at the half and then got a TD with 14:03 left in the game for a commanding 41-27 lead and even forced a MSU punt with 9:43 left. MSU went 83/12pl getting a TD with 4:51 left then forced a punt with 2:52 left. MSU drove 67/11pl. On 2nd & gl from the 2 with no time-outs, they swept QB Relf and he was tkl'd at the half yd line...

Iowa had a 10-0 lead early vs Iowa State but it was 10-10 at the half. ISU led 17-16 but UI drove 80/11pl and got a TD with 5:50 left and the 2 pt conv put them up 24-17. ISU's last drive in regulation featured a 3&16, 20 yd pass, a 3&20, 40 yd pass, a 4&1 conv and then on 3&gl got a 4 yd TD run. UI scored in the first of 3OT's with a TD and ISU faced a 4&gl at the 4 and got a TD to keep the game going. In the 3rd OT UI got a FG and ISU a TD for the win. ISU had not scored a meaningful TD vs UI since 2006...

East Carolina QB Davis had 260 yds and 4 TD's vs South Carolina but finished with just 127 yards passing, an int and was sk'd 5 times. Virginia Tech did have 20-11 FD and 332-112 yd edges but blew a couple of opportunities and actually needed a TD with 7:30 left to take their first lead of the game in their 17-10 win. VT got a 38 yd drive for a TD after a 30 yd punt, on 1st & gl from the 6 were int'd in the EZ and after having a FD at the EC14 settled for a 39 yd FG at the end of the half. VT's winning drive was 89/13pl for the TD with 7:30 left and EC's last 2 poss ended on a punt with 5:33 left from their own 26 and on 4&18 they fired incomplete from their own 43 and VT took a knee...

Idaho QB Reader threw for 299 yards and 4 TD's and UI's D had 2 IR TD's. UI finished with 424-197 yd and 23-11 FD edges. They missed a FG and settled for a FG and only led 3-0 when North Dakota got a 79 yd PR TD to stunningly lead 7-3 (9:37 2Q). ND then got a 54/1pl TD pass 14-3 (7:33 2Q). UI went 80/15pl for a TD with 1:01 left in the half then went 71/6, 58/9, 91/11, their first 3 3Q poss to lead 31-14. They blew it open late when a 19 yd IR to the ND18 set up a 1pl 1 yd TD run by Bass then 2pl later with bkp QB Goska in for ND, the Vandals got a 37 yd IR TD with 4:41 left for the 44-14 final...

Tulsa/Tulane was a 3-3 game with 4:08 left in the half. TLN was at the TLS35 but on 3&15 they were int'd and TLS went 73/6pl for a TD and a 10-3 lead. TLN's first two 3Q drives ended in a missed 44 yd FG and a fmbl at the TLS23 and TLS had TD drives of 82, 77 and 67 yds to go ahead 31-3. TLN fmbl'd at the TLS39, was SOD at the TLS42 and punted on their final 3 drives...

The key play o the Arkansas St/Memphis game happened early 2Q when Memphis, down 10-0, was SOD on 4&1 at the ASU29. ASU got a 71 yd TD pass on the next play to make it 16-0 and would go 82/13pl and 90/11pl for TD's on their next 2 poss to blow it open at the half. ASU scored 2 TDs and a FG on their first three 3Q poss, the 2nd 2 led by bkp QB Smith and they had a 611-169 yd edge...

Ohio U had a dominant 22-9 FD and 392-124 yd edges vs Gardner-Webb. OU got scoring drives of 40 and 28 yards and also got an IR TD but also blew some scoring drives. They had a 1st & gl at the 5 but fmbl'd, missed a 53 yd FG, fmbl'd at the GW47, were int'd at the GW35, SOD at the GW15 and settled for a 24 yd FG with 4:51 left...

Dan Persa sat out a 2nd straight game and Kolter hit 10-14-104 yd and rushed for 109 for Northwestern. Kolter inj'd his shoulder and only returned for a few plays later with 3rd string QB Trevor Siemian guiding 2 drives incl a 1 yd TD pass with 11:01 left and then Watkins was in for the final NW 2 drives. NW on 4&8 at the Eastern Illinois 22 just ran the ball in the line for 3 yds with 1:27 left and EI got a 76 yd run and a 3 yd garbage TD with :07 left to make the stats closer than they really were at NW 437-341...

Nothing misleading about the Washington State/UNLV final. WSU scored on their first 5 drives of the game as Marshall Lobbestael hit 24-32-361 and they then scored on their first 3 drives of the 2H with the 3rd drive being led by bkp Halliday. WSU made it 59-0 with 5:29 left and LV's only score came on a 95 yd KR TD. WSU's final drive was SOD at the LV20 and they also had a 35 yd FG blk'd...

Southern Miss appeared in control vs Marshall as they were up 17-3 and had the ball with 2:00 left 1H. They only got off a 27 yd punt and MU went 41/7pl for a TD, 17-10. In the game SM turned it over SIX times and had a punt blk'd. SM fmbl'd at their own 35 early 3Q setting up a MU TD. MU took the lead with a TD with 1:19 left 3Q. SM was pinned at its 1 and RB Hardy was tkl'd for a safety and MU led 26-17. SM fmbl'd at the MU27, settled for a 28 yd FG then rec'd the onside kick but as you would expect, with 1:00 left on 3&10 ended the game on their 6th TO, an int at the 43...

New Mexico St/Minnesota looked to be a high scoring game as at the half, NMSt had a 21-14 lead and a 271-199 yd edge. They even blew a couple of scoring opportunities in the 1H as UM had a 1st & gl at the 4 but was int'd in the EZ and NMSt missed a 45 yd FG. UM missed a 38 yd FG in the 3Q but down 28-21, the Gophers had a 1st & gl at the 7 and got the game tying TD with 7:54 left to make it 28-28 but replays respotted the ball at the footline and on 4&gl at the footline UM was stopped. NMSt got 4 FD's' and punted and UM got to the NMSt25. Coach Kill had a seizure on the sideline and the game was halted for a half hr and when they ret'd UM's 4th&10 pass fell incomplete and NMSt held on for the upset...

Texas/BYU was played in 98 degrees heat and BYU wilted in the 2H with UT having a 201?67 yd edge. UT QB Gilbert was benched and QB's Ash and McCoy alternated on every poss the rest of the game. Gilbert had a couple of costly int's and BYU jumped to a 13-0 lead. UT settled for a 23 yd FG late 1Q. In the 2H UT was SOD on 4&1 at the BYU13 and then up 17-16, had the ball at the BYU30. RB Brown broke off a run and had a shot but was tkl'd at the 14 of BYU and the Longhorns took a knee 2x...

Not many teams survive a defensive TO for a TD. It's extremely rare when a team wins a game having 2 def TD's go against them. Georgia pretty much controlled the South Carolina game from start to finish. In fact 3 of their first 4 drives got to the RZ but they settled for 3 FG's and actually missed a chipshot 33 yd FG and led 6-3. SC ran a fake punt on 4&7 at their own 32 and DT Ingram got a FD and the 276 lb'r raced 68 yds for a TD. In the 3Q UGA appeared in control again leading 20-14 and had the ball at the SC39. RB Crowell, who hurt his ribs in the 1H was not 100% and fmbl'd when SC ret'd it 57 yds to the 5 basically a TO for a TD as SC got a 5 yd "drive" for a TD. SC then got a 25 yd IR TD to lead 28-20. UGA tied it and then retook the lead 35-31 but again was sk'd & fmbl'd and SC ret'd it for a TD. At the end, SC rec'd an onside kick and got a FD and took a knee. Basically 4 def and ST TD's vs UGA and they only lost by 3...

Connecticut/Vanderbilt was a pure defensive struggle. The two teams combined for 12 sks for -72 yds, there was 2 def TD's and a blk'd punt for a TD. CT fmbl'd at their 42 setting up a 42/1pl TD pass for VU and VU went 80/6pl for a TD to lead 14-3 after 1Q with the 2Q producing 5 FD's combined and 7 punts and 2 TO's. After an int CT drove 6 yd for a 28 yd FG then blk'd a punt for a TD, 14-13 and got a 64 yd FR TD in the 4Q to lead 21-14. VU got a 50 yd IR TD with 6:45 left to tie then after a 48 yd run by Stacy got a 31 yd FG with 2:56 left for the lead. UConn on 4&16 fired incomplete from their own 25 with 2:09 left.

GAME UNDER THEIR BELT ADVANTAGE

Florida was impressive for a 2nd straight week. They settled for FG's on their first 2 drives. UAB had 2 of their first 3 drives getting 2 FD's and had another FD wiped out by a hold on the first drive and punted. On their 3rd drive UAB got a 38 yd TD pass after 2 FD's but it was wiped out by illegal shift and on 4&2 they were SOD. UAB had a snap go over the P's head for a safety with 2:32 left and after the extremely poor free kick UF drove 52/5pl for a TD with 1:09 left to score 9 pts in the final 2:32 and open it up 25-0. UF had a 308-95 yd edge at the half. In the 2H UAB had a FD at the UF30 and fmbl'd then ran a fake punt from its own 36 and was SOD setting up a UF 36/3pl TD drive. The Gators finished with 512-212 yd and 28-11 FD edges and led 39-0 after 3Q before putting the offense away in the 4Q. UF had the advantage of a game under their belts as both teams who didn't play the opening weekend were blown out...

Darron Thomas matched a school record with 6 TD passes as Oregon rebounded from their LSU loss with a 69-20 win. The loss snapped Nevada's 7 gm win streak as they came out of last season 13-1 and ranked #11. Tyler Lantrip took over at QB for Kaepernick (NFL) and hit 21-35-219 yds and rushed 10x for 51 yds. UO led 55-13 after 3Q and the Ducks scored 2 TD's in the last 2:24, one after UN was SOD at their own 27 and the 2nd on a 68 yd IR TD with :20 left.

REPLACEMENTS

Mike Glennon, the man who replaced Russell Wilson at North Carolina State hit 24-41-315 yds but a lot of it came in the 2H with NCSt down 34-13. At the half Wake Forest had a 278-127 yd edge. With Tanner Price at QB, WF led SU by 15 when he was inj'd in Wk1. He ret'd to the lineup and hit 22-35-297 yds completing his first 8 passes. NCSt did pull within 34-27 on a 4&10, 63 yd TD pass with 5:34 left. NCSt's final drive got to the WF38 and on 4&10 they dropped what would have been a sure a FD pass.

POINTSPREAD PLAYS OF THE GAME

Keith Price is replacing Jake Locker at Washington and he hit his first 8 passes hitting 18-25-315 yds. UW survived the dreaded 14 pt swing in the 2Q threatening to take a 28-7 lead on 3&8 from the 10 Price was int'd and ret'd 99 yds for a TD. In the 1H UW had a 370-192 yd edge and led 28-14. Hawaii did fmbl at the UW5 and were SOD at the UW9 in the 1H. The pointspread play of the game came after UH took over at the UW27 following a -5 yd punt and they trailed 38-26. They got a TD with 1:39 left for the apparent backdoor cover. The xp would have put them under the spread but UW blk'd the xp and ret'd it for 2 and instead of only trailing 38-33 it was an 8 pt game at 40-32. UW rec'd the onside kick...

USC had a 416-319 yd edge vs Utah but a 3-1 TO deficit. The Trojans were SOD at the Utah32, int'd at the Utah15, had a FD at the Utah12 and fmbl'd and Utah which had been outgained 239-68 drove 84/12pl for a TD with :34 left in the half to get back in it at 10-7. USC led 17-7 when a fmbl set up Utah for a 51/1pl reverse to the 1 and a TD on the next play to make it 17-14. USC had a 47 yd FG wiped out by a false start pen and punted and the next 8 poss were punts. Utah took over at their own 33 and on the controversial final drive they had an int dropped by a LB and on 4&10 were spotted short but they reversed the spot via replay it and gave them the FD at the 38. A pass interfere pen gave Utah a FD to the 23 with :11 left and the Utes lined up for the game tying 41 yd FG. It was blk and ret'd for a TD. The officials originally wiped it off the board as the USC players came on the field while the ret was in progress and the final was announced 17-14. The P12 stepped in and said the P12 rule is that unsportsmanlike conduct penalties by substitutes are enforced as dead ball fouls. Therefore the TD was allowed making it 23-14 and giving USC the frontdoor cover.

FRONTDOOR AND BACKDOOR COVERS

AF came in expecting an upset and while they actually had a 416-410 yd edge, AF gained 128 of their yards in the 4Q when trailing 35-9. TCU had the game locked up 35-9 and AF surprisingly went for a 22 yd FG on 4&4 with 8:18 left. Still their next 3 poss were punts and AF took over at their 22 with the score 35-12 and still Under the Total. AF would get 2 FD's and then a 33 yd pass to the 4 with :28 left and with :04 left in the game, a 1 yd TD run put the game Over the total, 35-19. Once again, AF had 128 of their yds in the 4Q...

Colorado St has won the last 16 meetings in this series and are 17-0-1 vs N Colorado. This time they had 28-9 FD and 501-216 yd edges but NC got a garbage TD with 6:43 left to only lose by 19. CSU got a safety with 10:23 left for a 33-7 lead and had the game in hand. After the free kick they got 2 FD's to the NC28 and were running out the clock when they fired incomplete on 4th down. On the next play, NC got a 66 yd TD run to get the backdoor with 6:27 left. CSU went 47/10pl and they ran out the clock.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24271 Followers:32
09/14/2011 06:35 PM

Tech Trends - Week 3

September 14, 2011



Thursday, Sept. 15

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

LSU at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Tigers have won five straight at Starkville and covered the first four of those prior to narrow 30-26 escape in 2009. Les only 2-5 last 7 as road chalk, but Tigers 8-3 vs. line last 11 meetings. Slight to LSU, based on extended series trends.




Friday, Sept. 16
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

BOISE STATE at TOLEDO...Boise a sparkling 20-4 vs. spread its last 24 away from Bronco Stadium (green turf works just fine for Boise). Boise also 11-2 vs. line last 13 outside of conference play. Boise, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at UCONN...Under Edsall, UConn covered 22 of its last 32 as chalk, and was 4-0 as Rentsch chalk LY. Paul Rhoads just 1-4 vs. line away from Ames LY after 5-1 mark in role in ‘09. Slight to UConn, based on team trends.




Saturday, Sept. 17
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

at WEST VIRGINIA at MARYLAND...WVU’s 31-17 win and cover LY was its fourth straight in series, though LY was first meeting since 2007. If Terps getting points, note that while at UConn, Edsall was 18-10 as dog from 2007-10. Edsall’s UConn was also 6-0 vs. points at home LY and 19-6 last 25 as host; he’s now 20-6 last 26 as host included Miami opening win. Terps also 12-4 vs. spread last 16 on board dating to late ‘09. Maryland, based on extended team and Edsall marks.

AUBURN at CLEMSON...Chizik is 4-2 vs. line as dog at Auburn (1-0 LY) and covered 5 of 6 away from Jordan-Hare LY. Dabo just 3-6-1 last 10 at Death Valley. Auburn, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH at IOWA...Ferentz has had some hot streaks vs. number throughout his career but is only 10-12-1 last 23 on board with Hawkeyes. Ferentz also just 6-11 his last 17 as chalk. ’Stache was 15-7-2 the past four years on the road with Pitt. Pitt, based on team trends.

AKRON at CINCINNATI...Ianello now 5-9 vs. line at Akron, and Zips just 8-20 vs. spread last 28 on board dating to late ‘08. Ianello 1-4 vs. line outside of MAC. Butch Jones now 3-1 laying DD with Cincy after AP rout. Cincy, based on team trends.

WYOMING at BOWLING GREEN...Clawson dropped last four vs. spread at home LY and 7 of last 9 overall vs. number in 2010, but opened 2011 in fine fashion at Idaho. Falcs historically shallow as home chalk, however, only 7-14 in role at Doyt Perry since '05. Christensen 9-4 vs. line away since arriving at Wyo in 2009. Slight to Wyo, based on extended team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN...Michigan was cursed under Rodriguez (10-27 vs. line) but looks to be on the rebound with Brady Hoke. EMU one of the handful of teams Rich-Rod covered against, in 2009 (45-17 Wolverines), and Mich. 2-1 vs. line in three vs. Eagles since '05. Ron English and EMU have dropped 6 of last 7 vs. points getting 21 or more. Slight to Michigan, based on EMU negatives.

PENN STATE at TEMPLE...Temple has covered each of the past two years vs. Shades, and Owls 37-21 vs. spread (all but two wins on Al Golden's watch) last 58 spread decisions. Owls 6-1 as home dog since '07. Shades 2-4 vs. line away from home LY. Temple, based on team trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at WESTERN MICHIGAN...CMU has won last five meetings, 4-0-1 vs. line in those, and covered last three vs. WMU. Chips only 2-7 vs. line last 9 since mid 2010, however. The Waldos were 6-5-1 vs. line LY after 11-22 spread mark for Cubit 2007-09. Slight to CMU, based on extended series trends.

OLE MISS at VANDERBILT...Dores have won 3 of the last 4 SU in series and have covered 8 of last 10 vs. Rebs. But Vandy is 0-10 its last 10 against spread hosting SEC foes Slight to Ole Miss, based on recent Vandy home marks.

DUKE at BOSTON COLLEGE...Spaziani continues to have problems as home chalk, now no covers last 6 in role. Eagles also only 1-8 last nine against line at home. Cutcliffe 8-3-1 vs. line his last 12 on road, and Duke 14-7 as road dog since '07. Duke, based on team trends.

KANSAS at GEORGIA TECH...Revenge for GT after 28-25 shock loss at KU LY. Paul Johnson 4-1 vs. line in revenge role at GT. Jayhawks just 6-10 as dog the past two seasons. Slight to GT, based on team trends.

COLORADO STATE vs. COLORADO (at Denver)...Buffs have now won and covered 3 of last 4 in series after Rams has covered previous three. CSU on a 4-16 spread skid since early in the '09 season, 4-8 last 12 as dog. Slight to CU, based on CSU negatives.

WISCONSIN vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS (at Soldier Field, Chicago)...Dave Doeren vs. former employer Wisconsin. NIU has covered last five vs. Big Ten reps. Bielema only 5-7 as road chalk since '07 and just 3-7 vs. spread last 10 in reg.-season vs. non-conference foes. NIU, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at MINNESOTA...Miami 6-1 last 7 vs. line. Minn 0-4 vs. line against MAC since '07, both numbers post-Glen Mason. Note Miami has covered its last four visiting Big Ten sites. Miami-O, based on extended trends.

TENNESSEE at FLORIDA...Vols have lost last 6 SU vs. Gators and are just 2-5 vs. spread last 7 in series. Derek Dooley, however, was 4-1 vs. line as visitor LY. Florida 34-18 vs. line since '07. Slight to Florida, based on series trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at NOTRE DAME...Spartans a real bogey team lately for ND, won and covered last 4 meetings, 5-0-1 vs. line last 6, and 11-2-1 vs. spread. Irish just 8-20-3 vs. line last 31 on board at home, and Brian Kelly only 1-4-3 vs. number at South Bend. MSU, based on series trends.

VIRGINIA at NORTH CAROLINA...UNC just 3-7 its last 10 as an ACC favorite. Slight to Virginia, based on extended trends.

TEXAS at UCLA...Bruins have won and covered big in last three series meetings since '97 (no result closer than 18). Last year 34-12 UCLA at Austin. Mack Brown's first game as Texas HC was at UCLA in 1998, a 49-31 defeat. Slick Rick just 6-13 his last 19 as dog at UCLA, but Mack just 2-9 vs. points last 11 vs. non-conference foes UCLA, based on extended trends.

WASHINGTON at NEBRASKA...U-Dub avenged blowout reg.-season loss in Seattle with 19-7 win at Holiday Bowl. Bo Pelini 4-9 vs. line last 13 at Lincoln. UW, based on team trends.

TEXAS TECH at NEW MEXICO...Lobos earned first September cover in 9 tries for Locksley in opener vs. CSU, but UNM still only 2-7 vs. spread against non-MWC fos for Locksley. After a slowish start, Tuberville is 3-0 with TT laying 20 or more. TT, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN at ARMY...NU 4-1 vs. line last 5 vs. non-conf. foes away from Evanston. NU, based on team trends.

NEVADA at SAN JOSE STATE...San Jose 8-24 vs. number last 32 on board, 3-11 vs. spread last 14 at Spartan Stadium. Pack has won and covered 3 of last 4 at San Jose (I was there for '03 game!) and is 7-2 against spread last 9 in series. Ault 5-2 as DD road chalk since '05. Nevada, based on team and series trends.

TULANE at UAB...Wave now 7-21-1 against number last 29 on board. Blazers 1-5 as chalk last season, however, and just 2-5 vs. number last 7 as host Slight to Tulane, based on UAB woes.

NAVY at SOUTH CAROLINA...Spurrier is 9-4-1 vs. line last 15 at Williams-Brice, although Cocks have often struggled immediately after Georgia game. Niumatalolo 7-2 last 9 as dog, and Mids have long offered value as dog away from Annapolis (26-13 since 2001). Navy, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Cougs actually 9-5 vs. points last 14 on road for Paul Wulff, and covered 6 of last 8 as DD dog in '10. WSU, based on team trends.

LOUISVILLE at KENTUCKY...UK 7-2 vs. line last 9 vs. FBS non-SEC foes at Lexington. Joker 6-2 vs. line at home LY. UK, based on team trends.

HOUSTON at LA TECH...Historically, LT has been a good home dog, 9-2 last 11 in role (2-2 LY for Sonny Dykes). Cougs 3-11 as road chalk since '08 for Sumlin. LT, based on team trends.

MARSHALL at OHIO...Solich 8-4 vs. line last 12 at Peden Stadium, and if favored here note 11-6 mark as home chalk since arriving in 2005. Herd 1-5 vs. line away since LY. Ohio, based on team trends.

IDAHO at TEXAS A&M... Ags 12-3 vs. line at Kyle Field since '09, 5-2 laying 14 or more. A&M on a 7-game reg.-season SU and spread win streak. Idaho stumbled in BG opener but has been 8-3 as road dog the past two seasons. A&M, based on recent trends.

BUFFALO at BALL STATE...Bulls enter 2011 on a 7-game MAC SU and spread skid. But Ball State struggled badly in Muncie the past two years (1-11 since '09). Slight to Buffalo, based on Ball State home woes.

ARIZONA STATE at ILLINOIS...ASU 10-1 vs. spread since LY against FBS foes and has covered last four chances as rare non-conference visitor since 2004. ASU, based on team trends.

KENT STATE at KANSAS STATE...Flashes just 3-9 vs. spread last 12 on board and have dropped 5 of last 6 vs. spread away from Dix Stadium. Bill Snyder just 2-5 vs. line at home since LY, however, and struggled vs. the EKU Colonels in opener. Snyder 0-3 laying DD since returning to Cats in '09. Slight to Kansas State, based on Kent State negatives.

SYRACUSE at SOUTHERN CAL...First trip for Cuse to Coliseum since Nov. 25, 1967, when Orangemen battered UCLA the week after epic USC-UCLA 21-20 classic. Physical Syracuse was the worst possible Bruin foe in the ultimate example of a letdown for UCLA. Orange brutalized Bruins, KO'd Gary Beban in his final college game and physically manhandled smaller Bruins, with Larry Csonka powering up the middle and Art Thoms and the Cuse "D" throwing around the Bruins like rag dolls. None other than Tom Coughlin caught a TD pass for Syracuse in 32-14 romp, the low moment of the Beban years at UCLA. Cuse was 5-1 vs. line away from home LY, covering last 5 in a row. Syracuse, based on team trends.

OKLAHOMA at FLORIDA STATE...OU only 3-4 vs. line away from Owen Field LY and 4-9 last 13 away from home. Also 1-4 vs. points last 5 away from Norman vs. non-conference foes. Slight to FSU, based on team trends.

UTEP at NEW MEXICO STATE...NMSU's DeWayne Walker 2-11 vs. points in Las Cruces. UTEP, based on NMSU negatives.

OHIO STATE at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Buckeyes 16-6-1 vs. line away from Big Horseshoe since '07. Canes only 8-16 vs. spread at home since '07 (the Shannon years). OSU, based on team trends.

UTAH at BYU...Dog team 15-4 last 19 in Holy War. Utah 22-8 as dog since 2000. Utah, based on team and series trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at TULSA...Mike Gundy now 11-4 vs. line last 15 on board. Cowboys also covered all 6 away from Stillwater LY. Tulsa covered last 4 as dog in 2010 but dropped first chance in role TY. OSU, based on team trends.

HAWAII at UNLV...Hawaii has covered last 4 meetings since '06 including wipeout 59-21 win LY in Honolulu. Warriors also 11-5 vs. spread last 16 on mainland. Rebs were 5-1 vs. line at Sam Boyd LY when home team covered in 11 of the 12 UNLV games. Hawaii, based on series trends.

STANFORD at ARIZONA...Tree has covered 6 of last 8 in series and covered 5 of 7 on road LY. Stanford 7-2 vs. spread last 9 away from Farm and was 5-1 as road chalk LY. Cats 2-9 vs. mark last 11 vs. FBS foes, although mike Stoops 9-2 last 11 as Tucson dog. Stanford, based on recent trends.




Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

UL-MONROE at TCU...ULM 1-5 vs. line last six non-conf. games on road. Warhawks 2-4 as DD dog under odd Berry and 3-8 last 11 in role. Gary Patterson 16-6 laying DD at Fort Worth since '05, 10-4 last 14 laying 20 or more. TCU, based on team trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at VIRGINIA TECH...Beamer 6-1 vs. spread last 7 at Blacksburg and 11-4 last 15 laying DD. VT, based on Beamer trends

UCF at FIU...FIU has now win and covered 6 of last 7 since late LY and is 5-1 last 6 as dog. O'Leary on 22-6 spread run since '09, however, and has covered 9 of last 11 in Orlando. Slight to UCF, based on extended trends

NORTH TEXAS at ALABAMA...Nick 29-14 last 43 on board and has covered last 4 laying 30 or more, including 53-7 over UNT in '09. Mean Green 18-32 last 50 spread decisions. Bama, based on team trends.

TROY at ARKANSAS...Petrino has covered last 8 and 11 of last 12 reg.-season games. Razorbacks have also covered 6 straight at home and last 4 as DD chalk. Blakeney only 4-9 vs. line since 2010, 3-5 last 8 away, and only 7-8 as DD road dog since '05. Arkansas, based on team trends.




Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: