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Oklahoma City vs. LA Lakers, 05/18/2012 22:30
Total: -110/+191 Under
NBA FREE PICK: Thunder/Lakers UNDER 191
The Lakers and Thunder combined for just 152 points in Game 2. Los Angeles was able to completely change the tempo of the game from Game 1. While I fully expect both teams to shoot better in Game 3, I can't see this game going over 191 points.
Whether or not the game goes over the total is going to come down to which team can implement the tempo of the game. More times than not, it comes down to which team is more motivated. I don't think there is any question the answer to that is Los Angeles. This is do or die for the Lakers. If they lose this game, there season is all but over.
Los Angeles knows they can't win this game if it turns into a track meet. They are too old and slow. I expect them to do everything in their power to slow this game down as much as possible. While the Lakers take their time on the offensive end, you have to expect maximum effort from Los Angeles on defense, rebounding, and loose balls.
The other thing you have to consider is the fact that Oklahoma City has now won 6-0 in the playoffs and have a comfortable 2-0 lead in the series. If there is a game they are going to come out flat, it will be tonight.
The UNDER is 12-5 in Thunder last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 4-1 in Thunder last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. It's also 16-5 in Lakers last 21 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. BET THE UNDER!