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Miami vs. Indiana, 05/17/2012 19:00
Point Spread: +2/-108 Indiana
NBA FREE PICK: Indiana Pacers +2
The public perception is that the Heat are going to roll into Indiana and take Game 3, I don't think that will be the case at all. This is not the same Miami team without Chris Bosh in the lineup, which is why Indiana was able to steal Game 2 on the road.
A lot of people are pointing to the Heat role players all of the sudden becoming a factor in this game. They haven't done anything the entire playoffs. LeBron James and Dwayne Wade are averaging a combined 56.5 ppg in the series and the Heat could easily be down 0-2.
There's a good chance the Heat role players will have a better showing than they did in Game 2, but you also have to take into consideration how much better Indiana's role players will play at home. Indiana shot just 38% from the field and was only 3 of 15 from long distance in Game 2. Those numbers are going to go up on their home floor.
Not only do I think the Pacers have a great shot at winning this game, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they embarrassed the Heat tonight. The only concern I have with this game is the possibility that James and Wade combine for 75 points. Very unlikely. Indiana is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog. BET THE PACERS!