08/31/2011 07:58 PM
Saturday, Sept. 3
NORTHWESTERN at BOSTON COLLEGE...Spaziani 1-6 vs. line at home LY (now 1-7 last 8 at Alumni Stadium) and 0-4 as Chestnut Hill chalk. Cats only 4-9 vs. line overall themselves LY but Fitzgerald was 10-3 vs. number as dog away from Evanston the previous three seasons. Tech edge-Northwestern, based on team trends.
UTAH STATE at AUBURN...Note that Chizik just 2-6 vs. spread his last 8 vs. non-SEC foes and only 1-5 last six chances laying DD points. Interestingly, Utags are 6-1 getting 20 points or more the past two seasons for HC Gary Andersen, and they're 9-4 since '09 against spread as visitor. Walking it back a bit further, USU now 17-7 vs. number last 24 as visitor. Tech edge-USU, based on team trends.
AKRON at OHIO STATE...First game of the post-Tressel era in Columbus. Will the jaded Ohio State fans still be happy at beating this undermanned MAC opponent? Tressel was awfully good vs. number (9-2-1 LY, 55-24 last 79 on board) so let's see what Luke Fickell can do. Bucks had also covered their last 9 vs. non-conference foes under Tressel. Zips only 1-3 vs. spread getting 20 or more under Ianello LY. Tech edge-Ohio State, based on team trends.
MIAMI-OHIO at MISSOURI...Miami-O returns to Mizzou where it was buried 51-13 LY. RedHawks rallied late for Haywood LY by winning last 6 SU (5-1 vs. line), but now it's Treadwell debut. Tend to dismiss most of the pre-2010 Miami numbers because so wretched especially 2008-09. Pinkel was 5-2 laying DD in 2010 after only 6-11 mark in role the previous three years. Tigers covered 4 of 6 at home LY after dropping 10 of 16 vs. line the prior three seasons in Columbia. Tech edge-slight to Miami-O, based on extended subpar Mizzou home trends.
KENT STATE at ALABAMA...Nick Saban against his alma mater, will he take it easy? Tide was 4-0 vs. line as non-conference host LY, laying heavy numbers each time, and Bama 8-1 vs. spread last 9 vs. non-SEC. Bama 27-14 last 41 on board as well. Hazell debut for Flashes, who are 1-6 vs. line last 7 away from Dix Stadium vs. non-MAC foes. Tech edge-Bama (unless Saban in a merciful mood), based on team trends.
UCLA at HOUSTON...Cougs in revenge mode after Bruins KO'd both of their QBs in LY's 31-13 UCLA win at Rose Bowl. Which might have been turnaround for several cheap shots taken by Kim Helton's UH against UCLA back in 1998, a game in which Freddie Mitchell suffered a severe broken leg. (Helton was mad because he thought Bob Toledo ran up the score in 1997's 66-10 win.) Neuheisel only 1-5 vs. line away LY and 6-10 in role since arriving at UCLA in 2008. Neuheisel also 7-16 last 23 as dog, although he is 8-2 vs. number against non-conference opposition since 2008. Tend to throw out most UH spread numbers LY when Cougs just 1-4-1 vs. line at home and 3-8-1 overall. But Sumlin still just 7-13-1 his last 21 as chalk (1-4-1 LY). Tech edge-slight to UCLA, based on extended team trends.
WESTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN...Do we dismiss the wretchedness of the Rodriguez spread numbers at Michigan now that he is gone? His regime was cursed at Ann Arbor so we tend to dismiss it, but for the record the Wolverines dropped their last 9 vs. the number last year and were 10-27 vs. the line for Rodriguez the past three years, and 5-15 as chalk for Rich. Meanwhile, Brady Hoke was 6-2 as chalk LY for SDSU (although he dropped all four laying points in '09). Hoke is 21-14 vs. line the last three years with Ball State and Aztecs. Broncs no covers last 4 (0-3-1) vs. non-MAC foes away from Waldo Stadium, and just 10-16-1 vs. spread away since '08. Tech edge-slight to Michigan, based on Hoke factor.
MINNESOTA at SOUTHERN CAL...Trojans just 9-17 vs. line since '09 and have been just 3-9 laying DD the past two years (1-4 for Lane Kiffin LY). Kiffin 3-7 as DD chalk since '09 (UT & SC), and Troy 0-4 vs. points outside of Pac LY (Kiffin 2-7 non-league since '09). Jerry Kill debut at Minnesota, note he was 9-4 vs. line LY for NIU Huskies before leaving prior to bowl game. Tech edge-Minnesota, based on extended SC/Kiffin negatives.
SOUTH FLORIDA at NOTRE DAME...Skip Holtz carries Lou's torch back to South Bend, where dad was gently moved aside after '96. Big stuff for Skip and Lou, and Skip was 4-1 as dog LY with Bulls, now 27-10 as short at ECU and USF since 2005. Brian Kelly covered just 1 of 7 at home in ND debut LY (an odd 1-3-3 vs. line) and Irish have covered just 9 of last 34 at home since early in the 2006 campaign (dating to the early Weis years). Tech edge-South Florida, based on team trends.
BYU at OLE MISS...Cougs closed with a rush last season with covers in last five and seven of last eight games, although most of those (save 1-point loss at Utah) were vs. less-than-stellar opposition. Bronco Mendenhall still 9-5 vs. spread last 14 away from Provo. Houston Nutt 4-10 vs. line last 14 reg.-season games and only 2-6 vs. mark last 8 at Oxford. Nutt only 2-5 as dog since '09. Tech edge-BYU, based on recent trends.
SAN JOSE STATE at STANFORD...Shaw debut on Farm. Peninsula series resumes after a one-year hiatus in 2010, Tree had won and covered previous three and is 7-1 SU and vs. line last 8 in series. SJSU just 7-23 vs. number last 30 on board and 3-11 vs. line last 14 away from home. Tech edge-Stanford, based on series trends.
COLORADO STATE at NEW MEXICO...Mike Locksley is 0-8 SU and vs. number in September the past two years. Lobos only 4-8 vs. line in Albuquerque since '09 as well. Rams just 4-9 vs. number on road the past two years and just 1-5 as road chalk since '05, but have covered 3 of last 4 meetings. Tech edge-CSU, based on Lobo/Locksley negatives.
BUFFALO at PITTSBURGH...Buffalo a wretched 2-10 vs. points LY (1-10 vs. FBS foes) and dropped its last 7 SU and vs. line in Quinn debut campaign. Bulls now 6-17 vs. spread last 23 on board dating to late '08. Todd Graham Pitt debut, he covered 9 of last 10 at Tulsa LY and was 3-2 vs. mark as DD chalk host, note however he was just 19-19 overall as chalk at Tulsa. Stache was only 8-10 as home chalk from 2007-10 at Pitt. Tech edge-slight to Pitt, based on Buffalo negatives.
SOUTH CAROLINA vs. EAST CAROLINA (at Charlotte)...Now we just need North Carolina vs. Western Carolina to complete a Carolina parlay this weekend! ECU was defenseless LY and dropped 5 of its last 6 vs. the number, and only 2-5 last 7 as dog for Ruffin M. after Skip had posted solid dog marks prior. Spurrier has won and covered openers in each of the last three years but he's only 3-5 last 8 as chalk away from home. Spurrier just 6-6 last 12 as DD chalk. Tech edge-slight to SC, based on Spurrier opener mark.
FRESNO STATE vs. CAL (at Candlestick Park, San Francisco)...Bears begin their season away from Strawberry Canyon, all home games either at Candlestick or AT&T Park across the Bay in 2011. Since mid 2004, Jeff Tedford is a subpar 34-44 vs. number. Meanwhile, Bulldogs' Pat Hill 8-4 vs. spread on reg. season road since '09 and 5-1 vs. spread the last two regular seasons against non-WAC foes. Tech edge-Fresno, based on team trends.
ARMY at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...Dave Doeren debut at NIU. Physical West Point was 4-0 as visiting dog last year and has covered opener the past two years for Rich Ellerson, both at EMU. Black Knights also 5-0 as visiting dog LY. NIU no covers last 4 as chalk vs. non-conference foes and was 2-12 laying DDs from 2005-09 before 6-2 mark in role LY. Tech edge-Army, based on team trends.
RICE at TEXAS...Rice had failed to cover 4 in a row vs. Texas (from '05-'08) before getting the cover at Reliant Stadium LY. Owls haven't beaten Horns SU since '94 (Kenny Hatfield) when both still played in the old SWC. Mack just 3-12 vs. line last 15 on board since late '09, 3-10 vs. spread last 13 at Austin, 3-8 laying 19 or more same span. Owls just 6-14 as DD visiting dog since '05, however (0-2 LY). Tech edge-Rice, based on recent Texas negatives.
INDIANA vs. BALL STATE (at Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis)...New coaches both ways (Wilson IU, Lembo Ball State)! Since 2002, IU is 7-4 vs. line against MAC opposition, and Hoosiers 4-2 vs. number against non-conference foes since '09. Cards, however, are 19-9 vs. line away from Muncie since '07 (4-2 LY), and are 5-2 vs. points against Big Ten since '06. Tech edge-slight to Ball State, based on team trends.
TULSA at OKLAHOMA...Blankenship Tulsa debut. Tulsa closed in a hurry LY when covering 9 of its last 10, including its last 5 away from home. Tulsa 6-3 vs. spot last 9 against non-CUSA foes on road and 7-3 as DD dog since 2003. Stoops just 5-5 laying DD at Norman since '99, though 19-11 overall in role since '07 (14-8 laying DD at Norman that span). Sooners also 9-3 last 12 vs. line vs. non-conference foes at Norman. Tech edge-slight to OU, based on team trends.
OHIO at NEW MEXICO STATE...Eighteen of DeWayne Walker's 20 SU losses since '09 have been by 10 points or more. Ags 0-5 vs. line since '08 vs. non-WAC foes at Las Cruces. Walker just 3-10 vs. line at Cruces since '09. Solich 13-8 vs. line away from Athens since '08, but only 4-6 as road chalk since '07. Tech edge-Solich, based on NMSU negatives.
BOISE STATE vs. GEORGIA (at Georia Dome, Atlanta)...Boise was 6-1 vs. line away from blue carpet LY and is now 21-8 vs. spread its last 29 away from Boise. Rematch of '05 opener at Athens won by Ga 48-13. Broncos have also last 7 away from home vs. non-WAC foes. Richt was 0-4 as dog LY after 9-4 mark in role the previous five years. Dawgs also 1-6 vs. spread away from Athens LY. Tech edge-Boise, based on recent trends.
OREGON vs. LSU (at Jerry Jones Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX)...Les Miles only 2-5 vs. line last 7 outside of SEC. Les also just 16-30 vs. number last 46 on board since early '07. Ducks 2-4 vs. spread last 6 vs. non-conference foes away from Eugene, but 31-21 overall vs. line since '07. Tech edge-slight to Oregon, based on Les Miles' extended spread marks.
LA TECH at SOUTHERN MISS...LT nothing special vs. line in Dykes' debut LY (5-7 vs. spread), 1-1 as DD road dog. Bulldogs also 0-6 vs. number last 6 as non-WAC visitor. Fedora 13-6-1 vs. line last 20 on board for USM. Tech edge-USM, based on team trends.
COLORADO at HAWAII...Jon Embree debut for Buffs, we remember his dad as a long-striding Denver Broncos receiver in 1969. CU was 0-5 vs. spread as true visitor LY and 1-4 vs. line as non-conf. visitor since '07. Leahey covered all 7 reg. season home games LY and is 22-12 vs. spread last 34 on board for Greg McMackin since mid '08. Tech edge-Hawaii, based on team trends.
MIDDLE TENNESSEE at PURDUE...Last year was a mess for MTSU, just 4-9 vs. line and 2-5 away from Murfreesboro, also 0-5 vs. non-Belt. Many distractions in 2010, however, and note Rick Stockstill was 21-14 vs. line in the three previous seasons. Purdue just 2-7 as Ross-Ade chalk since Danny Hope took over in 2009, and 1-4-1 vs. spread last 6 vs. non-Big Ten foes. Riveters 4-11 as Ross-Ade DD chalk since '05. Tech edge-MTSU, based on Purdue negatives.
ARKANSAS STATE at ILLINOIS...Ron Zook was 5-3 as chalk LY but was highly unreliable in role previously (just 7-12 between '07-09). Zook 1-6 vs. line last 7 on board hosting non-Big Ten foes. Hugh â€œDeep" Freeze HC debut for Ark State which was 3-1 as DD road dog for Roberts LY. Red Wolves had covered 7 of first 9 LY before dropping last 3 vs. number in 2010. Tech edge-slight to Ark State, based on extended Zook negatives.
UL-MONROE at FLORIDA STATE...Jimbo fared okay laying DD numbers last season, covering 3 of 5 (2-1 laying 20 or more) after Bowden had failed repeatedly to cover heavy lumber in his later years with Noles (just 1-7 laying DD from '07-09). Jimbo also 4-1 vs. line against non-ACC last year. ULM was 1-2 vs. line on road vs. non-Belt in Todd Berry debut LY (all of those vs. SEC bowl teams) and 2-3 as DD dog. Tech edge-slight to FSU, based on recent Jimbo numbers.
TROY at CLEMSON...Troy finally got rolling late LY with wins and covers in its last 3 games after a somewhat disappointing earlier portion of 2010. Blakeney still 10-5 vs. line last 15 as dog. Dabo struggling lately at home, just 2-5-1 last 8 vs. spread at Death Valley. Tech edge-Troy, based on team trends.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at FLORIDA...Howard really labored late LY, dropping last 5 and 9 of last 10 vs. number. FAU just 4-19 vs. points last 23 vs. non-Belt foes in reg.-season play, and Owls also just 5-12 against spread last 17 as visitor. Muschamp Gator debut, note that Fla. still 3-1 as DD Swamp chalk LY despite post-Tebow downturn (1-1 laying 20 or more). Tech edge-Florida, based on recent Schnellenberger negatives.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: