monday's helpful mlb info
4 Replies | 232 ViewsOn 05/07/2012 07:50 AM in MLB
MLB Top 4: Best runline bets in baseball
When a team like the Baltimore Orioles jumps out to a 17-9 record to begin the season, baseball bettors are anxiously waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Maybe the O’s are this year’s miracle team and the 11.94 units they’ve earned for moneyline bettors so far is just a taste of the vast riches to come in 2012.
Or maybe, the rest of the American League gets smart to their staff – which boasts the second-lowest team ERA (2.79) - the second and third time through. And maybe, the big bats, which have hit 35 home runs (third most in the bigs), suddenly shrink as the season wears on.
The nearly 12 moneyline units won by Baltimore are impressive, but the 14.37 units it’s earned on the runline are even sweeter (19-7 vs. the runline). And while the Orioles may start coming up on the short end of the scoreboard, they could maintain their value with baseball’s version of the spread.
Here are three other clubs that are paying out on the runline while leaving moneyline bettors a bit shortchanged:
St. Louis Cardinals (10.46 runline units/3.89 moneyline units)
The Cardinals' offense wasn’t supposed to be better with Albert Pujols soaking up the sun in California. But the defending World Series champs are tops in the majors in offense, averaging 5.46 runs per game and hitting a collective .286. Carlos Beltran, who was brought in to soften the loss to Pujols, has seven home runs. Pujols has none. Oddsmakers undervalued St. Louis’ remaining parts, giving it terrific value on the runline.
There have been some weirdo facts and figures during this red-hot runline rip. The Cardinals, who have played only six one-run games – fewest in the National League Central – are just 1-5 in those nailbiters. And, outside of a single-game opener with Miami, St. Louis hasn’t ventured outside its division through the first month of the season. It takes its first steps beyond the NL Central in Arizona Monday.
Houston Astros (8.03 runline units/1.76 moneyline units)
The Astros and Cardinals are facing each other this weekend, posing a tough task for runline bettors. Houston’s 12-14 record is much better than most expected, and its 18-8 runline record is simply shocking.
The Astros are leaning heavily on their offense right now, scoring 4.73 runs a night while watching their team ERA slowly swell, sitting at 3.89 heading into Saturday. The biggest difference maker for Houston’s runline backers has been the bullpen, which has kept the team close in the late innings. The Astros' relievers ranked eighth in baseball as a group, boasting a 2.97 collective ERA.
Chicago White Sox (7.55 runline units/-2.46 moneyline units)
The White Sox were locked atop the American League Central before losing back-to-back games to Cleveland and dropping the series opener with Detroit Friday. Chicago’s 12-14 record isn’t too far off its 15-11 runline record, but the difference in profits speak for itself.
Friday night’s ninth-inning collapse to the Tigers stung moneyline backers like a swarm of killer bees, while the runline fans suffered only minor swelling – in their wallets – after Detroit won 5-4 but failed to cover the 1.5-run spread. Chicago has just two wins in the last eight games but has managed to salvage a 5-5 mark versus the runline.
Other notable runline winners:
Arizona Diamondback (7.55 runline units/1.49 moneyline units)
Toronto Blue Jays (7.49 runline units/2.81 moneyline units)
Seattle Mariners (1.99 runline units/-3.50 moneyline units)