cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
05/05/2012 11:32 AM

Kentucky Derby betting: Horse-by-horse preview and picks

While the Kentucky Derby is always a bit of a crapshoot, this year’s race is a mess. With 20 horses entered and a slew of closers, all of which seem to be heading into the race in top form, it should set up for a wild finish.

Only five favorites have won the Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979, but lately the chalk has done much better. Bodemeister is the early favorite but can he go 1¼ miles?

Here are the horses in post position order:

1. Daddy Long Legs (+3000); Jockey: Colm O’Donghue

Ran a forgettable 12th in a field of 13 in his last outing, also at Churchill Downs. Hard to recommend off that one but this colt has solid connections and could get up for a piece of the purse. Father Scat Daddy ran in the 2007 Derby but the rail is an issue.

2. Optimizer (+5000); Jockey: Jon Court

Appears much more suited for the turf but trainer D. Wayne Lukas wants a reason to go to the Derby and this is the best he has. This horse will make some noise in the summer but not here.

3. Take Charge Indy (+1500); Jockey: Calvin Borel

Went wire-to-wire in the Florida Derby and should be in the thick of things here. Out of A.P. Indy, this colt is extremely sharp and Borel is the master of knowing when to make his move. He’ll get a call in this one.

4. Union Rags (+550): Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Flew home in the Florida Derby, finishing third to Take Charge Indy. Works have been solid but unspectacular, but he appears to be able to get the distance which is a mystery for many of the top contenders. He could go from Rags to riches and be a serious Triple Crown threat if he can avoid traffic problems. Leparoux is having a strong Churchill Downs meet.

5. Dullahan (+800); Jockey Kent Desormeaux

Ran a monstrous stretch to win the Bluegrass last time out. Has fantastic closing speed but could get buried behind a wall of horses in the field of 20. That, and the fact that he seems to like synthetic surfaces better, scares me off of this one.

6. Bodemeister (+400): Jockey: Mike Smith

Seems destined to go off the favorite but no horse has won the Derby that has not run as a 2-year-old since 1888. Still, Smith’s mount has won two of his four races by blowouts and he’s trained well. Certainly a top contender but I don’t want him in a tight race while only getting 4-1.

7. Rousing Sermon (+5000); Jockey: Jose Lezcano

Another horse with great closing kick but he’s 0 for 3 this season on Grade II races. Would like to have seen a better effort at Santa Anita where he was well back in consecutive starts. Nevertheless, this is the type of horse to put a couple of bucks on and pray for boxcar payoffs.

8. Creative Cause (+1200); Jockey: Joel Rosario

Has hit the board in eight starts and beat the favorite, Bodemeister, in the San Felipe. Always seem to be battling traffic problems, some of which was his doing. This one tries hard but if he’s bumped around it will hinder his chances. Trainer Mike Harrington is making first Derby start at age 71.

9. Trinniberg (+5000); Jockey: Willie Martinez

Has won two straight but the distance should be his downfall. This one has never gone past seven furlongs. Appears to be the rabbit and nothing else.

10. Daddy Nose Best (+1500); Jockey: Garrett Gomez

The seasoned vet of the field with 10 races (four wins) has a good closing kick. My biggest knock is that Leparoux wanted to ride Union Rags and Mike Smith went for Bodemeister. Gomez is a solid jock but this is going to take one heck of an effort weaving through traffic to get there.

11. Alpha (+1500); Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

Has won three of six starts but Alpha never looked like he could catch Gemologist in the Wood and has had health issues. His recent work at Belmont was impressive but he’s 0 for 3 in Grade I events and I don’t think he gets there. Bernardini’s horse is a must-use in the exotics.

12. Prospective (+3000); Jockey: Luis Contreras

Was last in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile run at Churchill Downs last year and it is hard to see him outkicking some of these foes. Pass.

13. Went the Day Well (+3000); Jockey: John Velazquez

Another closer that improved greatly since his maiden win two starts ago. Will add blinkers but I question his speed and he’s never seen the likes of these horses.

14. Hansen (+1000); Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

Sure to be the star of NBC’s coverage, the Great White Hope is a beauty but has plenty of questions. The distance could be the biggest problem but he should stay clear of the traffic. My guess is he fades to second place.

15. Gemologist (+800); Jockey: Javier Castellano

The only undefeated horse in the race, he’s won all five starts including a dominant performance in the Wood. He’s worked well and is fresh. The only knock is who he’s beaten and that’s the one I’m hanging my hat on.

16. El Padrino (+2000): Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Todd Pletcher trainee is sure to take some money but didn’t fire in the Florida Derby. He’s 2 for 2 on an off track but I don’t like the works and he seems to be off his game.

17. Done Talking (+5000): Jockey: Sheldon Russell

Crushed by Hansen two starts ago, he came back to win the Illinois Derby. Yet another closer without the monstrous kick, seems better suited for regular allowance events.

18. Sabercat (+3000): Jockey: Corey Nakatani

Asmussen trainee seems to be able to get the distance but also looks like he’d need a big-time speed duel up front to help his cause. And if that happens, I think others would be closing much better. Pass.

19. I'll Have Another (+1200); Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

Just missed in the Santa Anita Derby but the post could hurt this speedster from making the front. Has won 3 of 5 and has a Beyer figure of over 100. I’m guessing he burns himself out getting to the front and fades in the stretch.

20. Liaison (+5000); Jockey: Martin Garcia

Baffert trainee has not been sharp. Puts the blinkers back on but seems to be overmatched here.

Kentucky Derby picks:

1. Union Rags. 2. Hansen. 3. Daddy Knows Best. 4. Went The Day Well

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
05/05/2012 11:33 AM

Kentucky Derby handicapping: Good and bad trends

Over the years we’ve seen some trends hold up very well in the Kentucky Derby, while others haven’t been nearly as strong in recent years. Here’s a look at some of both kinds of Kentucky Derby handicapping trends to help you in your handicapping for Saturday’s big race:

Fewer than six career races

This was once a rock-solid trend. Between 1933 and 2007 only three horses had won with less than six career races, and all of those horses had run five times.

It was widely believed that experience was required to develop the base of familiarity and endurance needed to win the toughest race a three year old will ever run.

That trend has come under attack recently, though.

In 2008 Big Brown won after just three previous career starts. Last year Animal Kingdom had run only four times before his big win. Those two wins in the last four years have challenged the potency of this trend, and made it much harder to trust.

This year will also provide plenty of opportunities for the trend to be roughed up — or destroyed entirely. Potential favorite Bodemeister has run only four times. Five other likely runners — Gemologist, I’ll Have Another, Daddy Long Legs, Went the Day Well, and Mark Valeski — have each run only five times.

Given the way that training horses is changing this trend will likely be nothing but a memory in the future — even if it holds up this year.

No races as a 2-year-old

This is going to be the most publicized trend heading into this race — no horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced at least once as a 2-year-old. There have been 56 runners since 1944 that have challenged history in this way. Just twice — in 1948 and 1994 — have they come as close as second place.

A horse that hasn’t run at 2 typically hasn’t seen enough and faced enough adversity to be ready for the Derby. They also likely lack maturity — the typical cause for the delayed start to their career.

Horses can develop very well later in the year — the great Curlin was unraced at 2 and took off after his third-place Derby finish. It has effectively not yet been shown that a horse can be ready for the challenge of the first Saturday in May.

Looking to fly in the face of that convention will be Bodemeister. The stunning winner of the Arkansas Derby has a good shot at being the Kentucky Derby favorite. He’s an explosive frontrunner, and unquestionably the fastest member of this class. Can he do what so many before him have been unable to?

Fewer than three races as a 3-year-old

This is another trend that is already on shaky ground thanks to recent history. Between 1937 and 2007 we had seen just six horses with fewer than three races at 3 years old win the Derby. Again, it seemed like fewer races just didn’t give the depth of experience and fitness required to win.

The trend has dramatically reversed recently, though. Each of the last four winners — Big Brown, Mine That Bird, Super Saver, and Animal Kingdom — had only run twice at two.

This year there are a whopping nine horses that have only run twice. Those are Union Rags, Gemologist, Dullahan, I’ll Have Another, Take Charge Indy, Daddy Nose Best, Done Talking, Sabercat, and Trinniberg. Taking it a step further, Daddy Long Legs has run only once this calendar year.

Unbeaten runners

Wood Memorial winner Gemologist, trained by Todd Pletcher, has run five times and won five times. If and when he enters the gate he will become the 23rd undefeated entrant in the Derby.

The success rate of those horses has run well above the success rate for typical entries — seven of the 22 runners have won. In the last decade the results have been even more impressive — five undefeated runners have turned into three Derby champions, including Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown.

Layoff

Barbaro had a huge impact on how the sport was viewed by the general public and also those who cared about horse racing. He also changed the way people thought about layoffs heading into the race.

Entering his Derby in 2006, no horse since Needles in 1956 had won off a layoff of four or more weeks heading into the Kentucky Derby. It was widely believed that if a horse was off for more than three weeks he wouldn’t be ready to run on the big day.

After Barbaro proved it could be done trainers really embraced the extended rest approach. In subsequent years Big Brown, Super Saver and Animal Kingdom won off of a long rest.

This year it’s more remarkable if a horse isn’t coming off long rest than if he is — 15 of the 20 likely entrants are on at least four weeks rest, and six of the 20 haven’t run since March.

No prep race win

You’d think that it would be a bad thing if a horse hasn’t won a stakes race as a 3-year-old before the Derby. If he can’t win a lesser race then why would you trust him in the biggest race in the world?

That logic hasn’t consistently held up, though.

Since 1980 we have seen 11 horses earn their first stakes win of the year at Churchill Downs. That means you don’t have to be scared of a horse that hasn’t won yet.

Interestingly, though, that’s not much of a factor this year. Only four likely runners — Liaison, Mark Valeski, Rousing Sermon, and Sabercat — have yet to record a victory. Optimizer and My Adonis are the two horses currently outside of the Kentucky Derby field hoping to get in, and neither has won yet this year, either.

The fact that every other horse is a winner of a graded stakes is a sign of just how deep and competitive this field is. Last year was a much weaker class of horses, and eight of those horses hadn’t crossed the line first.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
05/05/2012 11:40 AM

Kentucky Derby odds: Top 3 long-shot bets

There's no clear favorite for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, which means you can expect big payouts no matter which horse wins the race.

Bodemeister is the slight early choice in the race with odds of around 4-1. Which horse will go to the post as the favorite is still a mystery.

And, with a field of 20 horses nearly guaranteed to run this year, thanks to a pool of also eligible horses, the exotic wagers for Saturday’s race could pay astronomical prices.

Here are three live, long shots for the 138th Run for the Roses:

Alpha (+1500):

Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, this one was banged at the start of his last race but still rebounded to finish second to Gemologist in the Wood Memorial. Gemologist figures to be one of the top contenders in the Derby.

Alpha has solid bloodlines, he’s out of Bernardini, and has three wins and two seconds in six lifetime starts. His best Beyer speed figure is 98, which is actually pretty strong for this field. His worst start was an 11th place finish in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, which featured a bunch of Derby entrants. That result will certainly keep Alpha’s odds pretty long.

McLaughlin hasn’t picked a jockey yet but Rajiv Maragh worked him Saturday and he was the fastest colt over 5 furlongs on the day.

Take Charge Indy (+1500):

The AP Indy colt will be ridden by Calvin Borel. That’s good enough reason for a couple of shekels right there. Add in the fact that he won the Florida Derby at 7-1 beating Union Rags by more than a length and it’s clear this horse has some speed.

Borel won the 2009 Derby on Mine That Bird at 50-1. Take Charge Indy’s won’t be that high but with 20 horses in the field he’ll probably try to set the pace and avoiding traffic problems is half the challenge of the Kentucky Derby.

Daddy Long Legs (+3000):

If all the true contenders come out of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile then Daddy Long Legs certainly fits the bill. Although he was 12th in the race he went off at a respectable 11-1. Trained by Aidan O’Brien, this colt went on to win the Grade II UAE Derby at 1 3/16 miles in Dubai.

He’s won three of five races lifetime and his relative obscurity to the American racing fans is sure to keep his odds quite long. The son of Scat Daddy would make quite a story if he won this race. Scat Daddy was injured in the 2007 Kentucky Derby and forced to retire from racing.

He’ll try to win this one for dad.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
05/05/2012 11:42 AM

Odds to win the Kentucky Derby: Top 5 favorites

Let’s face it, the sport of thoroughbred racing is in great trouble. Racetracks are closing and handles are down.

It seems that most facilities are begging for slot machines to boost their income before they become extinct.

Enter the “Great White Hope.”

Hansen, the most spectacular-looking horse since Secretariat, could carry the entire sport if he can make a serious run at the Triple Crown. While Hansen is a far cry from the runner that Big Red was, there will never be another more beautiful horse.

Pure white and certain to catch the casual racing fan’s fancy, Hansen will be the hope of NBC and the industry itself as he goes to the post on May 5 in the 138th Run for the Roses.

While he won’t be the top choice, Hansen does have a chance in the Kentucky Derby. He’s won four of six races lifetime.

Here is a look at the early favorites of the field of 20:

Bodemeister (+450):

The early Derby favorite will try to become the first horse in over a century to win the race without having a start as a 2-year-old. He’s topped 100 in the Beyer speed ratings three times, only three other horses in the race have even done it once. Bob Baffert trainee rolled to a dominant win in the Arkansas Derby last time out.

Union Rags (+500):

Lots of potential in this one and his connections believe he can get any distance. He’s won four of six lifetime starts but was a disappointing third in the Florida Derby as the prohibitive favorite. Certainly merits consideration and could be the most fit horse to win all legs of the Triple Crown.

Creative Cause (+600):

Just missed as the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby last time out but beat Bodemeister the race before by ¾ of a length at the San Felipe. Has had some troubles drifting in the lane but has hit the board in all eight starts.

Gemologist (+800):

Todd Pletcher trainee will go to the post undefeated in five starts. Gemologist seemed to toy with the field in the Wood, taking the lead and then when it looked like he was about to be passed in the stretch, he dug in again and pulled it out. Will take plenty of money at the windows and perhaps grab the early lead on Saturday.

Hansen (+1000):

Some say Hansen will be merely a sideshow because of his beauty but this colt beat many of these in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile on this surface going off at 7-1. The distance could be the problem as Hansen faded to second in his last start, the longest of his career (9 furlongs).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
05/05/2012 11:42 AM

Odds to win the Kentucky Derby: Top 5 favorites

Let’s face it, the sport of thoroughbred racing is in great trouble. Racetracks are closing and handles are down.

It seems that most facilities are begging for slot machines to boost their income before they become extinct.

Enter the “Great White Hope.”

Hansen, the most spectacular-looking horse since Secretariat, could carry the entire sport if he can make a serious run at the Triple Crown. While Hansen is a far cry from the runner that Big Red was, there will never be another more beautiful horse.

Pure white and certain to catch the casual racing fan’s fancy, Hansen will be the hope of NBC and the industry itself as he goes to the post on May 5 in the 138th Run for the Roses.

While he won’t be the top choice, Hansen does have a chance in the Kentucky Derby. He’s won four of six races lifetime.

Here is a look at the early favorites of the field of 20:

Bodemeister (+450):

The early Derby favorite will try to become the first horse in over a century to win the race without having a start as a 2-year-old. He’s topped 100 in the Beyer speed ratings three times, only three other horses in the race have even done it once. Bob Baffert trainee rolled to a dominant win in the Arkansas Derby last time out.

Union Rags (+500):

Lots of potential in this one and his connections believe he can get any distance. He’s won four of six lifetime starts but was a disappointing third in the Florida Derby as the prohibitive favorite. Certainly merits consideration and could be the most fit horse to win all legs of the Triple Crown.

Creative Cause (+600):

Just missed as the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby last time out but beat Bodemeister the race before by ¾ of a length at the San Felipe. Has had some troubles drifting in the lane but has hit the board in all eight starts.

Gemologist (+800):

Todd Pletcher trainee will go to the post undefeated in five starts. Gemologist seemed to toy with the field in the Wood, taking the lead and then when it looked like he was about to be passed in the stretch, he dug in again and pulled it out. Will take plenty of money at the windows and perhaps grab the early lead on Saturday.

Hansen (+1000):

Some say Hansen will be merely a sideshow because of his beauty but this colt beat many of these in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile on this surface going off at 7-1. The distance could be the problem as Hansen faded to second in his last start, the longest of his career (9 furlongs).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
05/05/2012 01:30 PM

Number Name Trainer Jockey Morning Line Current Odds

1 Daddy Long Legs Aidan O'Brien Colm O'Donoghue 30 23

2 Optimizer D. Lukas Jon Court 50 36

3 Take Charge Indy Patrick Byrne Calvin Borel 15 10

4 Union Rags Michael Matz Julien Leparoux 9/2 9/2

5 Dullahan Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux 8 10

6 Bodemeister Bob Baffert Mike Smith 4 7

7 Rousing Sermon Jerry Hollendorfer Jose Lezcano 50 36

8 Creative Cause Mike Harrington Joel Rosario 12 11


9 Trinniberg Bisnath Parboo Willie Martinez 50 39

10 Daddy Nose Best Steven Asmussen Garrett Gomez 15 13

11 Alpha Kiaran McLaughlin Rajiv Maragh 15 21

12 Prospective Mark Casse Luis Contreras 30 61

13 Went the Day Well H. Motion John Velazquez 20 26

14 Hansen Michael Maker Ramon Dominguez 10 13

15 Gemologist Todd Pletcher Javier Castellano 6 9

16 El Padrino Todd Pletcher Rafael Bejarano 20 26

17 Done Talking Hamilton Smith Sheldon Russell 50 31

18 Sabercat Steven Asmussen Corey Nakatani 30 33

19 I'll Have Another Doug O'Neill Mario Gutierrez 12 12

20 Liaison Bob Baffert Martin Garcia 50 54

21 My Adonis Kelly Breen Elvis Trujillo SCR

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
05/05/2012 01:49 PM

Trifecta:

Description Amount

May-05 CHU R11 1.00 USD TRI

(7,8,14,19/3,7,8,14,19/3,7,8,14,19) 48.00

Total Wager 48.00

----------------------------------------------------------
Eacta

05/05/2012 @ 10:36 AM RAC May-05 CHU R11 1.00 USD

EXA 8,14,19/4,7,8,14,19

---------------------------------------------------------
TO WIN:


05/05/2012 @ 10:34 AM RAC May-05 CHU R11 2.00 USD

WIN 8,14,19

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27427 Followers:33
05/05/2012 01:49 PM

Trifecta:

Description Amount

May-05 CHU R11 1.00 USD TRI

(7,8,14,19/3,7,8,14,19/3,7,8,14,19) 48.00

Total Wager 48.00

----------------------------------------------------------
Eacta

05/05/2012 @ 10:36 AM RAC May-05 CHU R11 1.00 USD

EXA 8,14,19/4,7,8,14,19

---------------------------------------------------------
TO WIN:


05/05/2012 @ 10:34 AM RAC May-05 CHU R11 2.00 USD

WIN 8,14,19

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: