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-- Buehrle has 2.63 RA in four starts, but lost three of them, as Marlins scored two runs in the three losses.
-- Worley is 2-1, 2.16 in four starts this season.
-- Minor is 2-0, 2.53 in his last three starts. McDonald has a 2.78 RA in four starts this season.
-- Dickey is 3-1, 4.44 in four starts this season.
-- Wieland has a 2.25 RA in his last two starts, but San Diego lost all three of his starts, scoring three runs.
-- Hammel is 3-0, 1.73 in four starts this season.
-- Darvish is 2-0,1.33 in his last three starts. Drabek is 2-1, 2.63 in his four starts this season.
-- Hochevar is 2-0, 2.84 in his two road starts.
-- Milone is 3-1, 2.00 in four starts this season.
-- FHernandez has a 1.23 RA in his last three starts. Hellickson gave up one run in 14.1 IP in two home starts.
-- Wilson has a 2.77 RA in four starts for the Angels.
-- Corbin is making MLB debut; he was 2-0, 1.67 in four starts at AA Mobile this season.
-- Volstad is 0-3, 6.95 in four starts this season.
-- Norris is 1-1, 7.64 in his last three starts, all on road.
-- Harang is 1-1, 5.56 in four starts this season. Nicasio has a 10.00 RA in two home starts, but Colorado won both games.
-- Wolf is 1-2, 7.17 in four starts this season.
-- Kuroda is 1-3, 5.11 in four starts this season.
-- Below has thrown 12 IP in five relief stints this year; he made couple starts LY and was 0-2, 4.34 in 29 big league innings.
-- Buchholz has a 9.27 RA in four starts this season.
-- Blackburn is 0-2, 7.54 in three starts this season.
-- Braves won 14 of their last 19 games. Pirates are 6-0 in games after their last six losses.
-- Mets won five of their last six games.
-- Dodgers won seven of their last ten games.
-- Orioles won six of their last seven games; Bronx won three of their last four home games.
-- Texas won 12 of its last 16 games.
-- Royals won three of their last four games.
-- Tampa Bay won seven of its last eight games. Mariners won four of their last six.
-- Red Sox won six of their last seven games.
-- Marlins lost seven of their last eight games. Arizona lost eight of its last twelve.
-- Cubs lost six of their last eight road games. Phillies lost four of last six at home.
-- Astros lost 10 of their last 14 games.
-- Rockies lost three of their last four games.
-- San Diego is 4-8 in its last dozen games. Brewers lost six of their last seven road games.
-- Toronto lost four of its last six games.
-- Detroit lost eight of its last ten games.
-- Oakland lost its last two games, scoring three runs.
-- Angels/Twins both lost six of their last seven games.
-- Seven of last ten Arizona games went over the total.
-- Four of Phillies' last five home games stayed under.
-- Under is 17-3-1 in Pirate games this season.
-- Mets' last five road games went over the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Milwaukee games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in Bronx Bombers' last ten games.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Texas games.
-- Five of last six Detroit games went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Boston games went over the total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Seattle's last seven games.
-- Nine of last eleven Minnesota games went over total.
The Mets look to take advantage of a Houston team that is coming off a 6-5 loss to Cincinnati and is 2-9 in Bud Norris' last 11 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. New York is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the Mets favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110). Here are all of today's picks.
Game 951-952: Arizona at Miami (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Corbin) 14.502; Miami (Buehrle) 12.988
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Miami (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+140); Under
Game 953-954: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Volstad) 14.454; Philadelphia (Worley) 15.265
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-165); Under
Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (McDonald) 16.562; Atlanta (Minor) 14.941
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+150); Under
Game 957-958: NY Mets at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Dickey) 15.702; Houston (Norris) 14.805
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Over
Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Harang) 15.966; Colorado (Nicasio) 14.449
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+115); Over
Game 961-962: Milwaukee at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 13.831; San Diego (Wieland) 15.518
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Diego (-115); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-115); Under
Game 963-964: Baltimore at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 16.970; NY Yankees (Kuroda) 15.992
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+150); Under
Game 965-966: Texas at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 16.619; Toronto (Drabek) 15.766
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-155); Over
Game 967-968: Kansas City at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.341; Detroit (Below) 14.882
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-145); Over
Game 969-970: Oakland at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 16.067; Boston (Buchholz) 14.573
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+140); Under
Game 971-972: Seattle at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.655; Tampa Bay (Hellickson) 17.076
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-120); Under
Game 973-974: Minnesota at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.306; LA Angels (Wilson) 14.131
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-230); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+190); Under
Diamond Trends - Monday
April 30, 2012
By Vince Akins
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Rangers are 15-0 since May 18, 2011 as a favorite after a loss and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1500.
OU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Athletics are 0-7-1 OU since May 08, 2011 when they are off a walk off loss for a net profit of $700 when playing the under.
STARTER TREND OF THE DAY:
The Phillies are 12-0 since June 24, 2011 when Vance Worley starts as a favorite after his team won the last time he started for a net profit of $1200.
MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:
The Yankees are 0-10 (-4.0 rpg) since 2004 when they scored 3+ runs but left 15-17 men on base as a team last game.
The Brewers are 0-11 since April 30, 2011 when playing a night game within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has lost at least their last two games for a net profit of $1130 when playing against.
The Yankees are 13-0 since April 14, 2011 as a home favorite when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1300
Hot and Not
April 30, 2012
By Mike Rose
The first month of the 2012 MLB regular season is just about in the books with some surprising teams on the uptick. We’re going to be taking a look at the three most lucrative and costly teams with every passing week, but remember, the regular season is an arduous one with every team going through numerous cycles; play accordingly.
Tampa Bay Rays (5-1, $457): The biggest money earners this past week reside in St. Petersburg, FL where Joe Maddon’s Rays have gotten out to a tremendous start to their 2012 campaign. The final week of April started off with a home sweep of the struggling Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. David Price set the tone of the series with a complete game 5-0 shut-out win in Game 1 and it was followed up by Jeremy Hellickson’s third win of the season in Game 2. The Rays pulled the sweep in Game 3 after Brandon Allen came off the bench and hit a walk-off two-run shot in the bottom of the ninth. Tampa Bay then went into Arlington and took two of three from the two-time defending AL champion Texas Rangers.
On The Docket: Tampa Bay returns home to play its next six against the AL West representative Seattle Mariners and Oakland A’s; Tampa’s 5-1 its L/6 versus division, but it was the only one the Rays owned a losing record against last season (16-18).
Baltimore Orioles (5-1, $419): Raise your hand if you saw this coming! If your hand is up, you’re either a bold faced liar or you somehow managed to grab ahold of Biff’s Sports Almanac from “Back to the Future.” Regardless, you can’t help but be impressed with what manager Buck Showalter and his staff has done to revitalize this defunct baseball franchise since taking over last season - and the club hasn’t been doing it with smoke and mirrors either! Baltimore’s pitching staff ranks 7th in the league with a 3.06 ERA, and the offense has flexed its power stroke launching the third most HRs overall (30). Last week, they swept the Blue Jays at home before taking two of three from the A’s; the last coming in an exhilarating walk-off fashion.
On The Docket: It’s litmus test week for the O’s who must travel to Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park over the course of the next seven days; venues they check in a combined 12-28 in their L/40 combined visits.
Los Angeles Dodgers (4-2, $216): Could the Dodgers be this year’s version of the Arizona Diamondbacks? Sure, LA didn’t bring up the rear of the NL West last season in winning 82 games, but they have that “can’t do anything wrong” mentality about them right now – the same mantra the D-Backs played with in cruising to the NL West pennant a short year ago. Though Matt Kemp has gotten out to an unreal start, the key to the Dodgers early season success has been on the heels of its starting pitching staff and bullpen. LA’s 15 quality starts through 22 games ranks fifth, while the pen has already combined for nine saves between Javy Guerra and Kenley Jansen.
On The Docket: The Dodgers moved to 10-2 at home last week with the sweep of the Nats, but now it’s back to the road to face the division rival Rockies and recently surging Chicago Cubs.
Detroit Tigers (1-5, -$598): It was a sobering week for Tigers fans to say the least! Manager Jimmy Leyland’s squad started off the week with a shocking sweep at home against a Mariners squad that had a perfect game thrown at them heading into the series opener and proceeded to give up a combined 21 runs throughout the series. That was followed up by dropping two of three at Yankee Stadium – Verlander looked mortal giving up seven hits (2 HR) and four ER in the 7-6 Game 1 loss. The Tigers have been erratic offensively (#19 with a .243 batting average), and that paired with a pitching staff that possesses a 4.27 ERA (#24) finds them a .500 ball club heading into May.
On The Docket: Detroit will get to reassert itself within the division this week with games scheduled to go versus Kansas City and Chicago, which is a good thing considering they went 50-22 in 2011 and stands 4-2 this season vs. division rivals.
Miami Marlins (1-5, -$555): Manager Ozzie Guillen’s stay in Miami has gotten out to a rocky start with the Fish struggling and him already serving a five-game suspension due to his Fidel Castro remarks. The Marlins once again bring up the rear of the NL East and are the only member of that division yet to tally double-digit wins to date. The squad possesses just one win against divisional opposition in eight tries, and after closing out its four-game series with the Diamondbacks Monday afternoon, will have to hit the road for nine straight games – Miami has won just two of its 11 games as a visitor so far (-$690).
On The Docket: Miami’s 3.24 runs per game average (#26) and .225 batting average (#27) don’t look to be getting much better with them invading AT&T and Petco Park this week – two of the toughest run producing ballparks in the Bigs!
Minnesota Twins (1-4, -$310): The Twinkies might be hitting for a better average this season (#6 at .266) with Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau fully healthy, but the results have largely been the same with the squad once again bringing up the rear of the AL Central. When you average just 4.00 runs per game yourself (#17), it’s extremely hard to win games when your pitching staff owns a collective 5.69 ERA – the absolute worst mark in the league. Manager Ron Gardenhire has gotten just four quality starts from his starting pitching staff, and though the bullpen is playing better than the league averages in OBP, SLG, and OPS allowed, it’s barley been called upon to win a game with Matt Capps coming through in all four of his save opportunities.
On The Docket: Minnesota will travel to the left coast to match wits with the Angels and Mariners over the course of the next week. It’s just 16-35 its L/51 on the road having gone 5-5 its L/10 in Angel Stadium (averaged 5.5 RPG) and 4-6 its L/10 in Safeco (averaged 2.2 RPG).
Pitchers Report - May
April 30, 2012
By Marc Lawrence
Editor's Note: Don't miss out on Marc Lawrence's pro baseball selections this season on VegasInsider.com. Click here!
The running of the Kentucky Derby each year signals MLB enters its 2nd month of play. And with it a handful of surprise teams take center stage. The key to sustaining will be success, or lack of it, from the pitching staffs. With that thought in mind, let's zero in on pitchers that will look to keep their team in the race and those that may pull up before they hit the wire.
Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of May. On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in May team starts, winning 33% percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each May over the last three years.
I'll be back next month with June's Good Month Pitchers. Until then, enjoy…
GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:
Cueto, Johnny - 12-4
Notes - The Cincinnati right-hander was very sharp in April, with right hand hitters batting a plaintive .127 against him. Cueto uses a low to mid-90's fastball and tilted slider that he expertly changes speeds with.
Gallardo, Yovanni - 12-5
Notes - Gallardo is the ace of the Milwaukee staff and challenges hitters with a 90-95 MPH fastball and has a late-breaking slider. His curveball spins tightly and has excellent downward movement and he'll mix in the occasional change to give hitters something different to look at. Gallardo has not been up to his usual standards just yet, having troubles with left-hand batters. Possibly in May, his rhythm will return.
Hamels, Cole - 13-3
Notes - Hamels is an underappreciated hurler who great command. The Phillies lefty mixes two and four-seam fastballs in the low 90's and thanks to Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, has developed a nasty cutter he can work both sides of the plate with. When he throws his two-strike changeup, batters swear it seems to back up, like Hamels has it on a string.
Johnson, Josh - 10-5
Notes - After a rocky start, Johnson has begun to find a groove utilizing his hard slider and fastball combination. If the Marlins top pitcher can regain his command, he will start missing more bats (opponents hit .337 against him in April) and be the top thrower Miami needs to compete in the NL East.
Kershaw, Clayton - 12-6
Notes - One of the best lefty's in baseball has developed the skill to command his four-pitch repertoire. Still only 24 years old, Kershaw can throw strikes when he needs to spot any pitch where he wants. His continued growth has seen his ground ball-to-fly ball outs skyrocket this season.
Lester, Jon - 12-6
Notes - Normally, Lester is one of the finest early season pitchers in the American League, but his walks were up significantly for April (until his final start of the month vs. Chicago) and that number will have to come down in May to match previous win totals. Reports have his delivery a little sped up causing more pitches up and away.
Lowe, Derrick - 13-5
Notes - Lowe might not be as old as Jamie Moyer, but he seems to have been around as long. Lowe will be 39 years old on June 1 and no longer has the velocity with his sinker/slider combo package from his younger days and has more balls hit with pace even low in the zone. Strictly fifth starter material and at his age, will be more effective early in the season than late, when the innings take their toll.
Peavy, Jake - 11-5
Notes - Is Jake Peavy finally healthy? It sure seems that way as early returns have a 6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and opposing batters are hitting just .162 versus the White Sox right-hander. The fastball is not the same as younger days, but the snap on breaking pitches has made for lunging swings with little or no contact.
Porcello, Rick - 10-4
Notes - Though just 23, Porcello has not accelerated at the same pace as Kershaw, leaving Detroit fans yearning for more. For a guy 6'6 with a rangy body, his career 4.8 strikeouts per nine innings is unremarkable. The Tigers hurler needs to trust his mid-90's fastball more to become the pitcher he should be.
Price, David - 9-4
Notes - Have you noticed that four of May's top performers are left-handed? The last in alphabetical order is Tampa Bay's prized possession, David Price. The Nashville native has a nice loose delivery from the three-quarters arm slot and has lively late-moving fastball that occasionally touches 96-97 MPH.
Verlander, Justin - 13-5
Notes - Arguably the best pitcher in baseball who is at the peak of his skills, Verlander has old-school power pitchers durability and often will have greater velocity late in games with his electric fastball. The Detroit ace also is intelligent and keeps hitters off-balance by varying his pitch patterns.
BAD MONTH PITCHERS:
Floyd, Gavin - 4-11
Notes - The White Sox right-hander is very close to a .500 record-wise for his big league career, despite always giving the appearance of having better stuff. Floyd, actually has three dependable pitches, but has a tendency to run hot or cold for a series of starts. May has traditionally been a "cold" month for him.
Hernandez, Felix - 5-13
Notes - King Felix deserves his fair share of the blame for his rumpled record this month; however, this is not all on him. Except for a couple of surprise seasons in 2009 and 2007, Seattle has not been a good team and their schedule over the past several years in May has featured many of the heavyweights in baseball, contributing to his second-rate record.
Masterson, Justin - 4-12
Notes - The Jamaican born right-hander has been on shabby Cleveland teams for the most part. Masterson is a rare side-armed starter and tosses a heavy sinker along with a low 90's fastball. Where he gets into trouble is when he cannot control the movement of his pitches, leading to walks and lineups that are lefty-laden. To start the month, lefties are hitting .281 against Masterson.
Weaver, Jered - 6-12
Notes - It is almost inconceivable the Angels top pitcher would ever have a bad month based on his history. Similar to Hernandez, the Halos of Anaheim and Weaver end up playing Boston and the Yankees frequently during this time period, along with division games, which has contributed to a faulty record.
Wells, Randy - 3-8
Notes - From the Ripley's Believe It or Not, the 6'6 Cubs pitcher is actually a converted catcher. Wells depends on placement because of his well-below average fastball and will use a change-up more than once to hitters in their time at bat. When Wells cannot spot his pitches, he's throwing room service pitches.