cnotes Posts:27328 Followers:33
On 04/12/2012 12:19 AM in MLB

Cnotes Thursday's Best Bets MLB - NBA !

Haren & Halos End Series At Minnesota Twins

Midway through the first full week of the 2012 Major League Baseball schedule, totals bettors might be getting a bit queasy from the rollercoaster ride they've been experiencing.

With 71 games in the books through Tuesday, April 10, the bottom line finds the 'under' with a slight 36-33 edge, along with a pair of 'pushes.' The 'under' screamed out of the gate with an 8-2 start before 'over' bettors enjoyed a 24-13-1 run this past weekend.

Since then, however, the 'under' has regained control with a 15-7-1 start to this week. We'll have to wait and see what, if anything, this all means in the long run. Schedules will begin to level out, and we should begin to see fewer ace-on-ace matchups within the next couple of weeks.

Here's a quick look at a couple of Thursday games, each the series finale.

Halos & Twinkies In Get-Out Affair

A couple of big-name pitchers coming off bad first cracks will oppose one another when the Minnesota Twins host the Los Angeles Angels. The contest at Target Field will begin at 1:10 p.m. (ET) with Dan Haren pitching for LA and Francisco Liriano going for Minnesota who remained winless through its first four games.

Los Angeles opened the series with a 5-1 victory Monday in CJ Wilson's Angels debut as -150 chalk. The clubs took Tuesday off and headed into Wednesday's contest that was still pending at press. The Halos were -175 with Jered Weaver on the hill opposing Minnesota's Carl Pavano.

Haren had a great spring, but that didn't translate in his first go out of the chute last Saturday at home vs. the Kansas City Royals. The right-hander made it just an out into the fifth while surrendering five runs on 11 hits (2 HR) in KC's 6-3 upset on a +170 money line. Since joining the Halos, Haren is 2-1 in three starts vs. Minnesota, the 4.71 ERA due mostly to one ugly outing at Target Field in 2010 (7 IP, 7 ER).

Liriano had an even rougher first assignment in Minnesota's 8-2 setback at Baltimore (+115) last Saturday. The southpaw lasted just four frames while allowing six runs (5 earned), a couple of Robert Andino singles driving home three of the runs.

Two starts vs. the Angels the last few years have also been ugly – 10-1/3 innings, 11.32 ERA – with both played at the Big A in Anaheim and resulting in red marks on the Minnesota ledger.

Tom Hallion is slated to call the plate on Thursday and the weatherman is calling for mostly sunny skies and a first-pitch temp in the mid-50s.

Cora At Helm Following Ozzie's Suspension

Personally, I think they should've made Miami Marlins manager Ozzie Guillen run laps and wash towels. Sell hot dogs, anything. If I'm paying a guy $2.5 million per year, he's gonna' work. But then, I'm neither Jeffrey Loria nor Bud Selig, and I'm very thankful for not being either one.

Guillen will be serving the second of a 5-game suspension for his remarks about Fidel Castro when the Marlins and Phillies conclude their first of six series Thursday night (7:05 ET). Mark Buehrle starts for interim manager Joey Cora and Miami; Philadelphia counters with Joe Blanton.

Those two arms will be following their staff aces in a prime-time Wednesday contest. Roy Halladay and the Phils were -140 for the tilt against Josh Johnson and the Fish. Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez were the heroes for Miami in Tuesday's opener, a 6-2 Marlins victory as +130 underdogs.

Buehrle pitched well enough to win last Thursday in Cincinnati, allowing just two runs in six innings. The problem was Johnny Cueto pitched even better in the Reds' 4-0 blanking of the Marlins who were +120 'dogs.

The veteran lefty hasn't seen a Phillies lineup in nearly eight years, and this will be Buehrle's first trip to the bump at Citizens Bank Park. The White Sox were 2-0 in his two assignments back in 2002 and 2004, the first one a fine performance by the lefty at old Veterans Stadium and the latter a 14-11 slugfest at US Cellular.

Blanton, beginning the year in the 5-slot of the Phils' rotation, is making his first start of the season after a brief (and losing) relief appearance last Saturday in Pittsburgh. The beefy Nashville native has spent most of the past four seasons as a part-timer in Philadelphia's starting mix, and has performed much better at home (4.08 ERA, 251+ IP) the past three seasons than away from home (5.09 ERA, 261+ IP).

Philadelphia is 5-2 in Blanton's seven starts against Miami, a 2.86 ERA in those outings highlighted by 42 strikeouts in 44 innings.

A cool but otherwise nice evening is in the forecast for Philly on Thursday. The game should begin in the mid-50s before dropping into the upper-40s by the seventh inning stretch.

Veteran arbiter Jeff Nelson is in rotation to make his third appearance under the mask this season. He called the second game played in Japan about two weeks ago, and worked the plate last Saturday in Baltimore. So far, his games have split the totals, 1-1.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27328 Followers:33
04/12/2012 12:21 AM

Phillies And Indians Make Early Fade List

We’re a week into an already-eventful 2012 MLB campaign. And while we don’t want to overreact to early-season results, we think the first week has provided some hints regarding sides we ought to consider “fading’ and “shading” until further notice.

Following is a quick list of teams we’ll be keeping our eyes upon in the next few weeks.

FADE: Philadelphia Phillies
As many insiders suggested prior to the season, the Phils could be ready for a steep drop as age suddenly becomes an issue in the everyday lineup. And that was with the team at full strength. With several key hands not on deck, the situation becomes more concerning, which is exactly what has happened in the early going, with the Phils stumbling to a 1-3 break from the gate. Only a 1-0 win at Pittsburgh on opening day, with Roy Halladay in fine form, prevented an even worse kickoff to the campaign.

The problems for the Phillies are mostly on offense, where 1B Ryan Howard and 2B Chase Utley both opened the season on the DL, and their return dates still up in the air. Replacements Ty Wigginton and Freddy Galvis (just 2-for-22 between them in the first four games) are struggling. Moreover, the numbers on the attack side for the Phils have been declining since the 2009 campaign. And, defensively, this year’s team was already looking at taking a step back with manager Charlie Manuel forced into a few platoon necessities.

Also don’t forget that the notoriously-fickle fan base which hasn’t had much to boo about in recent years can become its old, nasty self in short order, something the Phils haven’t had to worry about lately. Mostly, however, we look to “fade” the Phils because it might take the oddsmakers and wagering public a while before adjusting their perception of the team. Expect good value spots against Philadelphia in the coming weeks.

SHADE: Arizona Diamondbacks
We’re still a bit flummoxed at the low season-win numbers on the D-Backs, which we suspected were more of a reaction to past failures not only by the Snakes but also teams that emerged from nowhere in the previous season. But Arizona is a much different side than the one which collapsed after the last playoff appearance in 2007, more disciplined at the plate, aggressive on the basepaths, and conscientious on defense.

Maybe Arizona cools off, but it has started a franchise-best 4-0, including that impressive weekend sweep over the visiting Giants. Even when falling behind 6-0 on Sunday, Arizona scratched and clawed its way back into the game, with its collection of contact hitters forcing the Giants to make plays in the field (many of which they couldn’t convert). Chris Young’s early production suggests a monster year, C Miguel Montero is swinging a hot bat, and Willie Bloomquist’s ongoing production from the SS position is lessening the absence of Stephen Drew, who continues to mend his ankle injury from last year.

On the mound, J,J. Putz is one of the few top-notch closers to not yet blow a save (he’s 3-for-3). The only concern at the moment for the staff was a shaky opening start by Josh Collmenter. Mostly, however, the D-Backs seem to continue to be undervalued by the oddsmakers, and should provide good value until further notice.

FADE: Cleveland Indians
It is hard to make much progress when not scoring many runs. And even though it’s early in the season, Cleveland’s .153 BA through four games is cause for concern on the shores of Lake Erie.

What is worrisome to Tribe backers is that the pitching staff is neither strong nor deep enough to overcome the inconsistencies at the plate. Already, CF Grady Sizemore has been shelved with a back injury that might sideline him until the All-Star break, or longer. Travis Hafner’s most-productive days as a DH appear in the rear-view mirror. Only C Carlos Santana, who hit a pair of homers in Sunday’s 4-3 win over Toronto (the Tribe’s only win in its first four games), has been swinging a hot bat. Hafner, OF Shin-Soo Choo and SS Asdrubal Cabrera have all started slowly (none hitting better than .200), putting extra strain on the pitching staff which has wasted some quality starts from Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez.

Closer Chris Perez has also not looked sharp, blowing a save in the opener vs.the Blue Jays and wobbling in his other appearances. The Tribe looks like a tough sell at the moment, at least until the offense begins to perk up.

SHADE: Baltimore Orioles
The Yankees have brought the Birds – resplendent with the “cartoon Oriole” adorning their hats once again – back to Earth, as they usually do; New York had won 41 of the last 56 game vs. the O’s, including the first two of their midweek set going into Wednesday night’s encounter. But we suspect Buck Showalter’s team, which dominated the Twins in a weekend sweep, might provide decent value through April.

AL East sources indicate as much, suggesting that Baltimore can probably play over its head in the early going (as it did a year ago) before the lack of depth and the pitching become exposed. For the time being, however, the Orioles are getting some clutch hitting, with C Matt Wieters, CF Adam Jones and 2B Robert Andino all batting above .300 through five games, Wieters and RF Nick Markakis both going deep twice in the first five games. The versatile Andino, in particular, looks to be a capable replacement for injured 2B Brian Roberts.

The O’s have also impressed observers with some of the young arms on display, with starters Jake Arrieta, Tommy Hunter and Taiwanese import Yai-Win Chen looking extremely good in early work, while another new face, Pedro Strop, has opened eyes with his electric stuff out of the bullpen. Even if the Orioles eventually sag, they look like they might provide decent value until further notice.

Other potential “faders” to watch: Chicago Cubs & Minnesota Twins. Other potential “shaders” to watch: Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27328 Followers:33
04/12/2012 12:25 AM

Thursday Tips

April 11, 2012


The Thursday baseball card is day-heavy with six of the nine games taking place under the sun. Only one series is a brand-new one, while the other eight are getaway games, including the Rays/Tigers, Brewers/Cubs, and Angels/Twins. We'll begin in Washington as the Nationals play their home opener against Cincinnati.

Reds at Nationals - 1:05 PM EST

A pair of pitchers in new uniforms makes their second start each as Gio Gonzalez faces off against Mat Latos. The Nats return home after playing their first six games at Chicago and New York, while Cincinnati hits the highway for the first time this season. Gonzalez was shaky in his Washington debut by allowing four earned runs and seven hits in 3.2 innings, but the Nats rallied with five runs in the eighth for a 7-4 victory.

Things didn't turn out well for Latos in his Reds' debut, giving up four earned runs in 4.2 innings of an 8-3 home defeat to the Marlins as a $1.45 favorite. Latos lost his only start against the Nationals last season as a member of the Padres, scattering four hits and two earned runs in a 2-1 loss last June. The Reds won four of six meetings last season with the Nationals, but Washington took two of three matchups in D.C.

Rays at Tigers - 1:05 PM EST<

Detroit looks to bounce back in the rubber match of its three-game set with a victory on Thursday over Tampa Bay. Rick Porcello and Justin Verlander each delivered solid performances in the first two contests of the series, as the Tigers' bullpen squandered a late 2-0 lead in Wednesday's 4-2 setback to the Rays. Drew Smyly makes his Major League debut for the Tigers as the southpaw has pitched just one game above the Double-A level, while allowing four runs in 5.1 innings in his previous start in spring training on April 2.

The Rays counter with Jeff Niemann, who struggled towards the end of last season. Niemann won at least 11 games for the third consecutive campaign in 2011, as Tampa Bay finished 9-2 in his 11 road starts last season. The former Rice product lost his only career start at Comerica Park in 2009, a 4-3 setback in spite of scattering five hits and two earned runs in seven innings.

Angels at Twins - 1:10 PM EST

Minnesota stumbled out of the gate with an 0-4 start, but the Twins finally broke through the win column with last night's 6-5 triumph over the Halos. The Angels have had things relatively easy from a schedule standpoint with their first five games against Kansas City and Minnesota, but Los Angeles is just 2-3 so far. The Twins send out Francisco Liriano to the hill, as the lefty was lit up in his first outing at Baltimore. Liriano allowed six runs and eight hits in four innings of work as the Orioles dominated the Twins, 8-2.

Dan Haren didn't fare much better in his season debut, a 6-3 loss to the Royals as a $1.80 home favorite. The veteran right-hander yielded 11 hits and two homers in 5.1 innings, but the Angels picked up a pair of victories in Haren's two starts against the Twins last season.

Mariners at Rangers - 2:05 PM EST

Seattle registered a solid road win as $1.90 underdogs in last night's 4-3 win at Texas, as the Mariners go for the series split. The M's rallied for four runs in the final two innings to rack up their fourth win of the season and the first victory in the last eight tries against the Rangers. Jason Vargas takes the mound for the third time this season after facing the Athletics twice so far. The Seattle southpaw grabbed a road 'dog victory his last time out, even though he went just 5.1 innings in a 7-3 triumph.

The Rangers counter with Derek Holland, who lost his first start of the season against the White Sox as a $1.65 favorite. That setback snapped a seven-game winning streak by Texas dating back to last season with the lefty on the mound. Holland won three of four starts against the Mariners in 2011, but the lone loss came to Vargas in August as 'chalk' of $2.15 in a 4-3 defeat.

Brewers at Cubs - 2:20 PM EST

Chicago has floundered through the first week by posting a 1-5 record. The Cubs look to avoid the sweep against the rival Brewers this afternoon following Milwaukee's 2-1 close-shave win on Wednesday. Two of the stronger right-handed arms in the game square off at Wrigley Field as Zack Greinke and Matt Garza toe the rubber. Greinke dominated the Cardinals last Saturday, tossing seven scoreless innings in a 6-0 shutout as a $1.20 home favorite. Last season, the Brewers won two of Greinke's three starts against the Cubs, but the lone loss came on the North Side in a 12-7 defeat.

Garza was in line for a win in his season debut, but the Chicago bullpen blew a 4-2 lead in a 7-4 setback to Washington. The former Rays' pitcher scattered five hits and two earned runs in six innings, the first loss by the Cubs in a start made by Garza since August 25, 2011. Garza won two of three starts against the Brewers in 2011, including a complete-game six-hitter as a short favorite last September.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27328 Followers:33
04/12/2012 11:40 AM

MLB
Dunkel

Thursday, April 12

Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
The Cubs look to salvage a game in the series and build on their 6-1 record in Matt Garza's last 7 starts. Chicago is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+110). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, APRIL 12

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 15.414; Washington (Gonzalez) 15.232
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-105); Under

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Greinke) 14.747; Cubs (Garza) 15.671
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+110); N/A

Game 955-956: San Francisco at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.618; Colorado (Moyer) 13.986
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-130); Over

Game 957-958: Miami at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Buehrle) 15.424; Philadelphia (Blanton) 13.757
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Miami (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-115); Under

Game 959-960: Arizona at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 16.868; San Diego (Bass) 15.535
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-135); Over

Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Karstens) 14.754; LA Dodgers (Capuano) 17.078
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 2 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-145); Under

Game 963-964: Tampa Bay at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 17.778; Detroit (Smyly) 16.551
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-115); Over

Game 965-966: LA Angels at Minnesota (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Haren) 15.556; Minnesota (Liriano) 13.829
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-150); Under

Game 967-968: Seattle at Texas (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 15.972; Texas (Holland) 16.931
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-230); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-230); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27328 Followers:33
04/12/2012 11:43 AM

MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, April 12

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CINCINNATI (3 - 3) at WASHINGTON (4 - 2) - 1:05 PM
MAT LATOS (R) vs. GIO GONZALEZ (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 10-19 (-11.2 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 34-49 (-22.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 84-84 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 84-84 (+11.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 566-651 (+47.8 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 503-595 (+31.8 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MAT LATOS vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
LATOS is 3-1 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 1.094.
His team's record is 3-1 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.1 units)

GIO GONZALEZ vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
GONZALEZ is 0-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

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MILWAUKEE (4 - 2) at CHICAGO CUBS (1 - 5) - 2:20 PM
ZACK GREINKE (R) vs. MATT GARZA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
GREINKE is 9-21 (-14.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 4-12 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in road games after a win over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
MILWAUKEE is 106-74 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 106-74 (+22.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 86-53 (+25.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 64-26 (+30.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
GREINKE is 24-8 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
GREINKE is 24-8 (+14.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 1188-1271 (-238.7 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 76-118 (-33.9 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 76-93 (-31.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 69-95 (-34.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 646-652 (-124.9 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 76-93 (-31.9 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 50-66 (-23.9 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 3-0 (+3.0 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

ZACK GREINKE vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
GREINKE is 2-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.20 and a WHIP of 1.118.
His team's record is 2-1 (+0.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+0.9 units)

MATT GARZA vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
GARZA is 2-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 4.35 and a WHIP of 1.306.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 4) at COLORADO (2 - 3) - 3:10 PM
MADISON BUMGARNER (L) vs. JAMIE MOYER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
COLORADO is 118-98 (+30.6 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997.
MOYER is 76-28 (+29.8 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 185-169 (+30.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.
COLORADO is 73-80 (-31.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
COLORADO is 75-94 (-33.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 39-44 (-20.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 29-46 (-24.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 20-34 (-22.7 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 75-94 (-33.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO is 31-42 (-19.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-1 (+0.3 Units) against COLORADO this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

MADISON BUMGARNER vs. COLORADO since 1997
BUMGARNER is 2-3 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 2.25 and a WHIP of 1.182.
His team's record is 4-3 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.3 units)

JAMIE MOYER vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
MOYER is 3-4 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP of 1.366.
His team's record is 3-4 (-1.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-2. (+2.9 units)

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MIAMI (2 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 3) - 7:05 PM
MARK BUEHRLE (L) vs. JOE BLANTON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 50-71 (-18.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 485-453 (+46.7 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997.
MIAMI is 33-27 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-1 (+0.3 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.0 Units)

MARK BUEHRLE vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
BUEHRLE is 3-0 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 5.06 and a WHIP of 1.360.
His team's record is 3-0 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

JOE BLANTON vs. MIAMI since 1997
BLANTON is 6-2 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.296.
His team's record is 7-2 (+4.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-3. (+1.8 units)

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ARIZONA (4 - 1) at SAN DIEGO (2 - 4) - 10:05 PM
IAN KENNEDY (R) vs. ANTHONY BASS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 56-34 (+17.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 101-73 (+29.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 48-30 (+19.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 101-73 (+29.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 75-50 (+25.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 75-48 (+30.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
KENNEDY is 26-10 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 12-5 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 15-1 (+15.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 26-10 (+16.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KENNEDY is 21-6 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN DIEGO is 49-69 (-19.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 9-21 (-11.5 Units) against the money line as a home underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 37-50 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 37-48 (-14.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 29-50 (-17.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 37-50 (-16.4 Units) against the money line in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 39-71 (-31.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 25-36 (-13.8 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 10-24 (-16.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a win over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against ARIZONA this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

IAN KENNEDY vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
KENNEDY is 5-0 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.01 and a WHIP of 0.918.
His team's record is 6-1 (+5.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.3 units)

ANTHONY BASS vs. ARIZONA since 1997
No recent starts.

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PITTSBURGH (2 - 3) at LA DODGERS (5 - 1) - 10:10 PM
JEFF KARSTENS (R) vs. CHRIS CAPUANO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 199-413 (-98.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 132-234 (-50.3 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 31-78 (-28.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 55-36 (+16.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 2-0 (+2.0 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

JEFF KARSTENS vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
KARSTENS is 0-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.82 and a WHIP of 1.875.
His team's record is 2-2 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)

CHRIS CAPUANO vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
CAPUANO is 4-7 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 6.09 and a WHIP of 1.574.
His team's record is 7-8 (-3.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-6. (+1.9 units)

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27328 Followers:33
04/12/2012 11:45 AM

TAMPA BAY (4 - 1) at DETROIT (4 - 1) - 1:05 PM
JEFF NIEMANN (R) vs. DREW SMYLY (L)
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 105-75 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 45-26 (+16.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 95-73 (+18.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 18-6 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in road games in April games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 33-21 (+13.5 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NIEMANN is 10-3 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
NIEMANN is 17-6 (+12.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-1 (+0.5 Units) against DETROIT this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

JEFF NIEMANN vs. DETROIT since 1997
NIEMANN is 1-1 when starting against DETROIT with an ERA of 3.54 and a WHIP of 1.143.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.1 units)

DREW SMYLY vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

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LA ANGELS (2 - 3) at MINNESOTA (1 - 4) - 1:10 PM
DAN HAREN (R) vs. FRANCISCO LIRIANO (L)
Top Trends for this game.
HAREN is 30-37 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
HAREN is 11-17 (-12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA ANGELS are 623-613 (+64.9 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 370-304 (+55.9 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 514-505 (+63.4 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field since 1997.
LA ANGELS are 617-530 (+69.7 Units) against the money line after a loss since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 64-104 (-28.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 34-50 (-17.2 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 6-15 (-13.7 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 62-99 (-25.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 43-78 (-27.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
LIRIANO is 14-23 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 (+0.6 Units) against LA ANGELS this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.2 Units)

DAN HAREN vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
HAREN is 5-3 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 3.26 and a WHIP of 1.159.
His team's record is 6-4 (+2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-5. (-0.4 units)

FRANCISCO LIRIANO vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
LIRIANO is 1-2 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 7.16 and a WHIP of 1.653.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-2. (-2.3 units)

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SEATTLE (4 - 3) at TEXAS (4 - 2) - 2:05 PM
JASON VARGAS (L) vs. DEREK HOLLAND (L)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 133-199 (-57.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-24 (-17.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 42-79 (-31.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 34-64 (-31.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 130-187 (-49.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-29 (-16.3 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 25-64 (-30.8 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
TEXAS is 43-17 (+20.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOLLAND is 16-5 (+11.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SEATTLE is 102-84 (+29.9 Units) against the money line in road games in April games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 2-1 (-0.1 Units) against SEATTLE this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

JASON VARGAS vs. TEXAS since 1997
VARGAS is 3-4 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.426.
His team's record is 3-6 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-7. (-5.6 units)

DEREK HOLLAND vs. SEATTLE since 1997
HOLLAND is 4-1 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 3.10 and a WHIP of 1.106.
His team's record is 4-2 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.2 units)

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27328 Followers:33
04/12/2012 11:46 AM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, April 12

Not a lot of relevant info to give out this early in the season, but we'll do what we can for the first week or so, until some trends develop.

Hot pitchers
-- Latos is 2-1, 2.21 in his last three starts. Gonzalez is 4-1, 2.20 in his last five starts.
-- Garza is 2-0, 2.32 in his last four starts.
-- Buehrle is 2-1, 1.89 in his last three starts.
-- Bass was 2-0, 1.20 in three starts LY, going five innings in all three.
-- Karstens has a 1.50 RA in his last starts, but no wins in his last six.

-- Texas won seven of Holland's last eight starts. Vargas is 4-0, 2.35 in his last six starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Greinke has a 5.16 RA in his last five starts.
-- Bumgarner is 1-2, 4.80 in his last three starts. Moyer is 0-4, 8.41 in his last five starts.
-- Blanton is 1-2, 3.97 in his last seven starts.
-- Kennedy is 1-1, 4.19 in his last three starts.
-- Capuano has a 6.46 RA in his last three starts.

-- Niemann is 3-3, 6.08 in his last seven starts. Smyly is making his first major league start for Detroit; he was 4-3, 1.18 in seven AA starts LY, and allowed three runs in 1.2 IP in his only AAA appearance this year. .
-- Haren is 1-3, 5.81 in his last four starts. Erratic Liriano is 2-2, 6.60 in his last six starts.
-- Seattle is 4-3 and hasn't played a home game yet.

Pitcher vs Opponent
-- Latos lost 2-1 in his only start vs Washington LY (2 runs/6 IP). Gio Gonzalez didn't pitch against the Reds LY.
-- Greinke allowed one run in 14 IP in his last two starts vs Cubs. Garza was 2-1, 4.79 in three starts vs Milwaukee LY.
-- Bumgarner was 2-1, 1.67 in four starts vs Colorado LY. Moyer gave up four runs in six IP in his last start vs SF, in April of 2010.
-- Blanton beat Florida 6-4 in his only '11 start against them, allowing three runs in five IP.
-- Kennedy was 3-0, 1.74 against the Padres last season.
-- Karstens allowed one run in 5.2 IP in his only start vs LA LY, game Pirates later won 4-1. Capuano was 1-1, 3.46 in two starts against the Pirates last season.

-- Niemann lost 5-2 in his only start vs Detroit LY (four runs/7.1 IP)
-- Haren was 2-0, 2.57 against the Twins LY. Liriano lost 7-1 in his only start vs Angels LY, giving up seven runs in five IP.
-- Vargas was 2-1, 3.92 against the Rangers LY. Holland was 3-0, 3.12 in his four starts vs Seattle LY.

Hot teams
-- Los Angeles won five of its first six games.
-- Milwaukee won four of its last five games.
-- Arizona won four of its first five games.

-- Tampa Bay/Detroit both won four of their first five games.
-- Texas won four of its first six games.

Cold teams
-- Philly lost three of its last four games. Marlins lost four of their first six games.
-- Pirates lost three of their last four games.
-- Reds lost three of their last five games.
-- Braves lost four of their first six games.
-- Cubs lost five of their last six games.
-- Colorado lost three of its last four games. Giants lost four of their first five games.
-- Padres lost four of their first six games.

-- Angels lost three of their last four games. Minnesota lost four of its first five games.

We're going to get into totals and umpires and that good stuff, once we get enough to lnowledge this season to make it all relevant.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27328 Followers:33
04/12/2012 11:48 AM

MLB

Thursday, April 12

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Trend Report
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1:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. WASHINGTON
Cincinnati is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games
Washington is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati

1:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. DETROIT
Tampa Bay is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

1:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. MINNESOTA
LA Angels are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Angels's last 11 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Minnesota's last 25 games when playing LA Angels
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

2:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. TEXAS
Seattle is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Texas
Seattle is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 7 games at home

2:20 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 12 games when playing Chi Cubs
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games
Chi Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee

3:10 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. COLORADO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing on the road against Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 9 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Francisco

7:05 PM
MIAMI vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Philadelphia is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Miami

10:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN DIEGO
Arizona is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing on the road against San Diego
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

10:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. LA DODGERS
Pittsburgh is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
LA Dodgers are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27328 Followers:33
04/12/2012 11:49 AM

MLB

Thursday, April 12

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Three up, three down: Best and worst MLB bullpens
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When you sit down to handicap a game, you often don't find yourself drifting over to the bullpen statistics. You want to know about the starters. You want to know about the lineup.

But many games are won and lost long after the aces have hit the showers. Let's take a look at some of the best and worst bullpens in the majors, as the season's first month rolls on.

The Best

Atlanta Braves

It’s tough to find weaknesses in the Braves' bullpen, if you look at it as a long-term strength and not the fact that Atlanta is just 1-4 so far this season. The numbers were simply startling last season, and it should take more than a rough start to sway bettors off Atlanta's relievers.

The bullpen finished first in ERA (3.03) and batting average against (.221) last year and took third in saves (52). The crew is struggling so far, despite already posting three holds, but the horses are there to think a turnaround is coming.

Craig Kimbrel had 46 saves and a 2.10 ERA last year, Jonny Venters had five saves and a 1.84 ERA, and Eric O'Flaherty posted a 0.98 ERA in 73 2-3 innings. Hang in there with Atlanta.

Arizona Diamondbacks

J.J. Putz is a shining example of how closers can reinvent themselves in this game, perhaps more than any other position. Putz was a disaster with the Mets in 2009, but after a stop with the White Sox, has found a home in Arizona. He already has three saves and four strikeouts in three innings, and heads a bullpen that is better than people think.

Arizona, with David Hernandez and Brad Ziegler behind Putz on the depth chart, already has four saves, five holds and a 1.15 ERA this season. A lot of people just remember Putz and his 45 saves last season as the Diamondbacks won the NL West. The truth is, the Diamondbacks' bullpen allowed just a .247 batting average against last year and led the majors with 58 team saves.

Texas Rangers

The bullpen wasn't tremendous last season, but the Rangers have been to consecutive World Series - not an easy feat in the American League. So, the relievers must be doing something right. And this year, they have more depth, more experience and - unlike Atlanta - they are off to a good start.

Texas has a 0.63 bullpen ERA to go along with two saves, five holds and a .157 batting-average against mark.

Joe Nathan, with 261 career saves entering the season, adds an edge from Minnesota and former starter Alexi Ogando already has two holds in three appearances. Keep in mind, he went 13-8 as a starter last season with 126 strikeouts.



The Worst

Houston Astros

With all due respect to Brett Myers - we realize closers can come back to life like Putz - the Astros may not give Myers enough opportunities to complete a comeback. This is a bullpen that was second to last in ERA last season (4.49) and dead last in saves (25).

The names behind Myers leave a lot to be desired, though up-and-down Brandon Lyon did have 20 saves back in 2010. After Lyon, you're looking at Wilton Lopez, David Carpenter, Wesley Wright, and Rhiner Cruz. There could be some tough sledding ahead.

Give the squad credit though. In a small sampling, the league is hitting just .208 off it so far.

Baltimore Orioles

Jim Johnson is trying to save the day for a club that was brutal on the back end last year. The Orioles finished 27th in bullpen ERA (4.18), amassed just 32 saves and Kevin Gregg lost his closer role along the way.

But Johnson gives the team some hope. He already has two saves, three strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA, and the bullpen has compiled 16 1-3 innings of work. There's not much after Gregg, now the setup man, unless Troy Patton, Luis Ayala, Matt Lindstrom, and Pedro Strop do it for you.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins, with injuries all over the place last season, managed 32 saves. But a closer look at the numbers shows the true problem: Minnesota just didn't have the depth and the talent to mix and match. As a result, it compiled a 4.51 bullpen ERA - worst in the majors - and relievers stomached 28 losses.

Matt Capps, with 31 saves the last two seasons, is the best of the bunch, and Glen Perkins, behind him, had 17 holds last year. But there's not much there after them. And though Nathan was hurt often and the club had to find ways to move on without him, it still might be a difficult thing not to have him around ... if nothing else as a mentor.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27328 Followers:33
04/12/2012 11:52 AM

MLB

Thursday, April 12

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Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets
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Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers (-115, 9)

Heading into the ninth inning in Game 2 of this series on Wednesday, Detroit Tigers supporters were likely congratulating each other on a 5-0 start to the season.

After all, Justin Verlander was still cruising along having thrown just 81 pitches and the Tigers owned a 2-0 lead.

Then everything fell apart. Verlander gave up a couple of singles, fired a wild pitch, and before you know it, he was out of the game. Tampa Bay ended up scoring four times in the ninth to earn a 4-2 victory.

Now the Tigers turn to Drew Smyly, who makes his MLB debut after winning the No. 5 spot in the rotation this spring. The 22-year-old lefty impressed the club early on, but he gave up three runs on three hits in a Triple-A start for Toledo last weekend, recording only five outs before getting the hook.

This is just Smyly’s second year of pro ball, so we might see some nerves early on.

Pick: Rays


Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals (-115, 8)

Dating back to last season, the Washington Nationals are 13-3 in their last 16 games as an underdog. It doesn’t look like you’ll be able to get the Nats with a dog tag Thursday, but it stands to show how much they’ve improved since the beginning of last season.

Gio Gonzalez is just one of the new faces in Washington’s rotation and he gets the honor of starting Thursday’s home opener.

"I think any one of these guys deserves the shot to [pitch] the home-game opener," Gonzalez said. "I don't really care how the rotation goes as long as I'm out there. Give me the ball and I'm going to go out there and try to do my best to win a game for the Nationals."

Gonzalez will be looking to bounce back from a rough debut with Washington. He gave up seven hits and four earned runs in 3 2/3 innings at Wrigley Field.

Pick: Nationals

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: