cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
On 04/11/2012 11:32 AM in MLB

Cnotes Wednesday's Best Bets MLB - NBA !

Reds & Cardinals Close Series In Cincinnati

So far, so good for last year’s improbable World Series Champions.

The NL Central-leading Redbirds have looked very good without perennial all-star Albert Pujols anchoring their lineup. New skipper Mike Matheny’s job will be much easier if his team can score anywhere close to their current average of 6.2 runs per game and their starters continue to post a sub-2.00 ERA.

This veteran Cardinals lineup looks pretty much the same as the one we saw close out Texas last year in Arlington, except for the departure of Pujols and the offseason addition of veteran outfielder Carlos Beltran (.318 BA, .966 OPS) which allows Lance Berkman (.308 BA, .988 OPS) to play his more natural position at first base.

In a Wednesday getaway game, the Cards will wrap their 3-game series vs. the Reds at Great America Ballpark in Cincinnati with the first pitch set for 12:35 p.m. (ET). Cincy was a popular preseason pick by most talking heads to win the NL Central. St. Louis has not only emerged early on as a team to be reckoned with, the Cardinals also have made bettors happy at the betting window by cashing four of five as the underdogs heading into Tuesday’s action.

Lefty Jaime Garcia (1-0, 3.00 ERA) will take the ball for St. Louis coming off his solid 6-inning, 5-hit, 2-earned run performance in Milwaukee. Garcia settled down nicely after allowing two first inning runs.

Garcia relies on coaxing ground balls and should record his share of strikeouts (8.7 K/9 in 2011) vs. the free-swinging Reds. The southpaw will utilize the changeup 27 percent of the time vs. righties, which has dramatically increased his effectiveness against batters from that side of the dish.

St. Louis is 6-1 in Garcia’s seven career starts vs. the Reds.

Right-hander Johnny Cueto will look to close out Cincinnati’s brief homestand with a “W” before the Reds jet off to Washington to face the Nats. Cueto was spectacular for the Reds on opening day. picking up right where he left off last season in holding Miami to just three hits over seven scoreless innings.

Cueto is clearly the ace on this young starting staff but has struggled in his last two starts against the Cardinals allowing 13 hits and seven earned runs over 12 innings. However, the Reds won both of those games and finished 3-1 in Cueto’s four 2011 assignments vs St. Louis. The Reds are 8-2 in Cueto’s last 10 starts, including four scoreless appearances by the Dominican, one a complete game shutout.

Cincinnati’s offense has sputtered out of the gate with the exception of SS Zack Cozart (.500 BA), and all of the Reds starters other than Cueto have struggled in their initial outings posting a combined ERA of 6.58.

While St. Louis has been money on the road cashing 20 of its last 28 (4-1 this season), Cincinnati has won five straight starts by Cueto at Great American Ball Park. Garcia is just not the same pitcher away from Busch Stadium sporting a 4.61 road ERA, more than two runs higher than his 2.55 ERA at home.

The projected line on this contest is Cincinnati -155 with an 8½-run total.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
04/11/2012 11:53 AM

MLB Early Games:

04/11/2012 @ 09:35 AM MLB [902] CIN REDS 1.75
( ACTION )

04/11/2012 @ 10:10 AM MLB [904] NY METS 2.01
( ACTION )

04/11/2012 @ 11:20 AM MLB [905] MIL BREWERS -1½ 2.35
( Y GALLARDO-R / R DEMPSTER-R )

04/11/2012 @ 03:35 PM MLB [907] ARI D'BACKS 2.06
( ACTION )

04/11/2012 @ 09:05 AM MLB [917] TOTAL o7 1.95 (CHI W SOX vrs CLE INDIANS)

( J DANKS -L / J MASTERSON-R )

04/11/2012 @ 09:35 AM MLB [919] TOTAL o8 2.00 (BOS RED SOX vrs TOR B-JAYS)
( J LESTER -L / R ROMERO -L )

04/11/2012 @ 10:05 AM MLB [922] DET TIGERS 1.54
( ACTION )

04/11/2012 @ 12:35 PM MLB [924] TOTAL u7 2.05 (KC ROYALS vrs OAK ATHLETICS)
( B CHEN -L / B MCCARTHY-R )

04/11/2012 @ 04:05 PM MLB [925] NY YANKEES -1½ 1.87
( C SABATHIA-L / J ARRIETA -R )

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
04/11/2012 11:55 AM

Wednesday Matinees

April 10, 2012

For the first time this baseball season, bettors have an opportunity to wager on plenty of games during the day and at night. We'll take a look at the six early afternoon matchups, including several teams throwing out their aces for a second turn in the rotation. Things get going in the state of Ohio with a pair of early contests, starting in Cleveland with two division rivals hooking up.

White Sox at Indians - 12:05 PM EST

Chicago and Cleveland aren't expected to be threats in the AL Central this season, as the two clubs finish a two-game set at Progressive Field. The Sox grabbed the opener of this series, 4-2, thanks to a three-run first inning, but Tuesday's game was rained out. John Danks looks to bounce back from a loss in his first start of the season against the Rangers, in spite of striking out six and allowing three earned runs in six innings of work. The last time Danks faced the Tribe was a little over a year ago, dropping a 7-1 decision as a short road favorite, the fifth loss in his last seven starts against Cleveland.

Justin Masterson turned in an exceptional performance in the opener against the Blue Jays, tossing eight innings of two-hit ball while striking out 10. However, Cleveland's bullpen squandered a 4-1 lead in the ninth inning before losing in a 16-inning marathon, 7-4. Masterson has mastered the White Sox recently by allowing just five earned runs in four outings last season, but Cleveland split the four meetings.

Cardinals at Reds - 12:35 PM EST

St. Louis has barely skipped a beat without Tony LaRussa and Albert Pujols, winning four of its first five games after taking home the World Series trophy last October. The Cards look to close out the Reds at the Great American Ballpark, as the St. Louis offense has plated seven or more runs three times this season. Jaime Garcia overcame an early deficit in his last start, as the St. Louis southpaw scattered five hits and two earned runs in six innings of an 11-5 victory at Milwaukee. The Cardinals are 6-1 in Garcia's seven career starts against the Reds, including a 2-1 mark last season.

The Reds counter with ace Johnny Cueto, who blanked the Marlins in a dynamic opening day performance. Cueto gave up just three hits in seven scoreless innings, as Cincinnati cruised past Miami, 4-0 as $1.30 home favorites. Cincinnati won three of four starts made by Cueto against St. Louis in 2011, including a pair of high-scoring victories at home.

Red Sox at Blue Jays - 12:35 PM EST

Boston avoided an 0-4 start by rallying past Toronto on Monday night, 4-2. The Sox began last season slow out of the gate before going on a tremendous run, as Bobby Valentine's team looks to do the same this time around with Jon Lester on the mound. The Boston southpaw picked up a no-decision in his first start at Detroit, a 3-2 walk-off loss. Despite not receiving a win, Lester pitched much better than he did to wrap up last season with a seven-inning performance, allowing six hits and one earned run.

Ricky Romero didn't put together a solid outing at Cleveland on opening day, but the Toronto lineup bailed him out with a late rally to triumph in extra innings, 7-4. The Blue Jays' southpaw beat the Red Sox in his final two starts last season following a 1-6 run against Boston dating back to 2009. Toronto won his previous seven outings at Rogers Centre since last July, while six of those starts were quality ones.

Rays at Tigers - 1:05 PM EST

A pair of playoff teams from last season plays the middle contest of a three-game series at chilly Comerica Park. Both Tampa Bay and Detroit started the season at 3-0 prior to a Tigers' victory on Tuesday, as Justin Verlander takes the mound on Wednesday. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner and MVP dominated the Red Sox in his opening start, scattering two hits in eight scoreless innings, but picked up a no-decision as the bullpen blew a 2-0 lead. The Tigers own a 6-0 record in Verlander's last six home starts against the Rays, while Detroit is 13-2 in his previous 15 outings at Comerica Park.

James Shields didn't look sharp in his season debut against the Yankees, giving up six earned runs in five innings of work. However, the Rays rallied for a 7-6 victory to get Shields off the hook, the eighth straight home start by the righty that Tampa Bay has won. Shields hasn't faced the Tigers since July 2010, holding Detroit to two earned runs in a 3-2 home victory.

Nationals at Mets - 1:10 PM EST

One of the best pitchers of last decade faces off against potentially one of the best pitchers this decade as Washington and New York conclude its series at Citi Field. The Mets grabbed another victory in Monday's walk-off triumph over the Nationals, 4-3, as New York erased an early 3-0 deficit. The season began with a fantastic effort from former Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana, who tossed five scoreless innings in a 1-0 victory over the Braves on opening day.

The Nationals send out Stephen Strasburg, who received no run support in his seven innings of work against the Cubs, but Washington rallied for a 2-1 win as $1.40 road favorites. Strasburg has been a great play on the highway in his short career, as the Nats are 6-1 in his seven road starts, while the right-hander is making his first appearance at Citi Field.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
04/11/2012 11:57 AM

Diamond Trends - Wednesday

April 11, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Twins are 0-14 since May 15, 2011 when they are off a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs in a day game for a net profit of $1405 when playing against.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Royals are 0-11-1 OU since July 06, 2011 when playing a day game as a dog and it is the last game of the series after playing in a night game for a net profit of $1100 when playing the under.

The Phillies are 11-0 since April 16, 2010 when Roy Halladay starts as a favorite after giving up no walks on the road for a net profit of $1100.

MLB BIBLE TREND OF THE DAY:


James Shields has produced a team record of 0-17 (-3.8 rpg) since 2006 as a dog of at least +145 when the total is 10 or less.

TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Tigers are 12-0 since June 28, 2006 when Justin Verlander starts at home after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs at home for a net profit of $1200.

The Cubs are 0-10 OU since May 29, 2011 when Ryan Dempster starts when the start time is earlier than 4:00 PM local time for a net profit of $1000 when playing the under.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
04/11/2012 11:59 AM

Hoop Trends - Wednesday

April 11, 2012


SU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Grizzlies are 10-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since March 17, 2006 as a favorite with at least one day of rest off a win in which their leading scorer for that game had fewer than 20 points.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:


The Bucks are 11-0 OU (23.7 ppg) since February 17, 2004 at home after a home loss in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:


The Hawks are 0-11 OU (-13.7 ppg) since February 28, 2011 after a win on the road in which Josh Smith was not the Hawks’ high scorer.

CHOICE TREND:


The Hornets are 0-10 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since November 23, 2007 after a home loss in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.

TODAY’S TRENDS:


The Cavaliers are 10-0-1 OU (8.8 ppg) since March 08, 1996 as a dog with no rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line.

The Suns are 0-14 OU (-15.9 ppg) since March 01, 2010 when they shot at least 50% from the field in each of their last two games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
04/11/2012 12:02 PM

Cardinals try to complete sweep of Reds Wednesday


ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (5-1)

at CINCINNATI REDS (2-3)


First pitch: Wednesday, 12:35 p.m. EDT
Line: Cincinnati -130, St. Louis +120, Total: 7.5

The Cardinals will look to stay hot and sweep the Reds in this NL Central showdown on Wednesday afternoon.

The Reds have not been able to touch the St. Louis pitching thus far, notching just one run in each of the first two games of the series. Although Jaime Garcia, toeing the rubber for the Cardinals, has a 6-1 career record against the Reds, he also struggles mightily on the road where his ERA (4.27) is nearly a full two points worse than it is at home. Although Johnny Cueto has middling numbers in his career against the Cardinals, he pitched to a 2.60 ERA last season against the Redbirds, allowing just 22 hits in 27.2 innings as a part of his career year. He looked as if he were building off last year’s success in his season-opening gem, a seven-inning, three-hit performance against the Marlins and is in a good position for another strong outing here. Play on CINCINNATI to break out of its hitting slump and coast to victory on the arm of Cueto.

This strong FoxSheets managerial trend also favors the Reds:

DUSTY BAKER is 62-31 (66.7%, +24.7 Units) against the money line in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage of .350 or better in all games he has managed since 1997. The average score was BAKER 4.7, OPPONENT 4.1 - (Rating = 1*).

The St. Louis bats remained hot and strong in the second game of the series Tuesday as Carlos Beltran and David Freese each hit home run No. 3 of the season. Beltran has been potent in the two-hole, now sporting a 1.070 OPS and setting fear in to pitchers. With his 2-for-3 performance Tuesday, Freese moved his batting average to .444 and his OPS to a staggering 1.242. As impressive as this duo has been, the Cardinals lineup is bound for an off night—they will not continue to average 5.7 runs per game. Play against the sweep here for this road squad.

While the St. Louis bats are scorching, the Cincinnati ones are asleep at the wheel. Kyle Lohse toyed with the Reds lineup Tuesday, while the team registered just four hits in the contest. Joey Votto picked up an RBI but still has a .188 BA. It doesn’t help him that he lacks proper support in the lineup, with cleanup hitter 3B Scott Rolen batting .125. Jay Bruce went 2-for-4 and now stands at .316 as the beacon of hope in the Cincinnati lineup, but look for his compatriots to break out of their funk to avoid the sweep at home. Take the Reds here.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
04/11/2012 12:03 PM

MLB
Dunkel

Tampa Bay at Detroit
The Rays look to bounce back from yesterday's 5-2 loss to Detroit and build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Tampa Bay is the pick (+160) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+160). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, APRIL 11

Game 901-902: St. Louis at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 16.800; Cincinnati (Cueto) 13.893
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 3; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+110); Under

Game 903-904: Washington at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 14.923; NY Mets (Santana) 15.706
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 5
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Under

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.757; Cubs (Dempster) 15.661
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+110); Over

Game 907-908: Arizona at San Diego (6:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Saunders) 15.110; San Diego (Luebke) 16.292
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-125); Over

Game 909-910: Miami at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Johnson) 14.091; Philadelphia (Halladay) 15.090
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-140); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140); Over

Game 911-912: Atlanta at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Delgado) 13.709; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.794
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+110); Under

Game 913-914: San Francisco at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.297; Colorado (Guthrie) 13.308
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-125); Under

Game 915-916: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Bedard) 15.839; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.994
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-145); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Over

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (12:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 14.419; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.309
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-140); Under

Game 919-920: Boston at Toronto (12:37 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.415; Toronto (Romero) 14.003
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); Over

Game 921-922: Tampa Bay at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 17.335; Detroit (Verlander) 15.995
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+160); Under

Game 923-924: Kansas City at Oakland (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 14.649; Oakland (McCarthy) 15.737
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-120); Under

Game 925-926: NY Yankees at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.813; Baltimore (Arrieta) 15.040
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 9
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Over

Game 927-928: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Millwood) 15.483; Texas (Lewis) 17.421
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-230); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-230); Under

Game 929-930: LA Angels at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 14.870; Minnesota (Pavano) 13.514
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-170); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
04/11/2012 12:05 PM

MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, April 11

Not a lot of relevant info to give out this early in the season, but we'll do what we can for the first week or so, until some trends develop.

Hot pitchers
-- Cueto is 3-0, 2.44 in his last seven starts. JGarcia is 1-0, 2.17 in his last four starts.
-- Strasburg is 1-1, 1.74 in six starts since his operation.. JSantana is 2-0, 0.90 in his last couple starts.
-- Halladay is 3-1, 1.20 in his last four starts.
-- Delgado was 1-1, 3.09 in seven starts LY, but lasted only 35 innings in those seven starts.
-- Guthrie is 4-0, 3.55 in his last five starts.
-- Billingsley is 2-1, 1.96 in his last three starts.

-- Gomez was 4-1, 4.71 in his last five starts LY.
-- Tigers are 15-3 in Verlander's last 18 starts.
-- BChen is 2-1, 1.27 in his last five starts.
-- Lewis is 3-1, 3.53 in his last six starts.
-- Weaver is 3-1, 1.69 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Dempster is 0-6, 4.60 in his last nine starts. Gallardo is 1-2, 4.76 in his last four starts.
-- Saunders is 0-1, 5.06 in his last three starts. Luebke is 1-5, 5.00 in his last seven starts.
-- JJohnson is 0-2, 3.33 in his last four starts.
-- WRodriguez is 0-1, 3.55 in his last four starts.
-- Lincecum is 1-4, 4.58 in his last six starts.
-- Bedard is 1-3, 4.60 in his last nine starts.

-- Lester is 0-3, 6.41 in his last five starts. Romero is 0-1, 4.98 in his last three outings.
-- Humber was 0-1, 5.84 in his last four starts LY.
-- Shields is 1-3, 6.27 in his last five starts.
-- McCarthy is 0-2, 3.67 in his last four starts.
-- Sabathia is 0-1, 4.91 in his last seven starts. Arrieta is 2-4, 6.10 in his last seven outings.
-- Millwood was 4-3, 4.31 in nine starts LY, all in the NL.
-- Pavano is 1-3, 4.25 in his last five starts.

Hot teams
-- Los Angeles won four of its first five games.
-- Cardinals won five of their first six games.
-- Mets won four of their first five games. Nationals won three of five.
-- Astros won three of their last four games.
-- Milwaukee won three of its last four games.
-- Arizona won its first four games, scoring 21 runs.

-- Tampa Bay won three of its first four games. Detroit won its first four games, scoring 31 runs.
-- Blue Jays won three of their first five games.
-- Orioles won three of their first five games.
-- Texas won four of its first five games.
-- Royals won three of their first five games.

Cold teams
-- Philly lost its last three games, scoring six runs. Marlins lost three of their first five games.
-- Pirates are 2-2 this season, despite scoring 8 runs in four games.
-- Reds lost three of their last four games.
-- Braves lost four of their first five games.
-- Cubs lost four of their last five games.
-- Colorado lost its last three games, scoring five runs. Giants lost three of their first four games.
-- Padres lost four of their first five games.

-- Red Sox lost four of their first five games.
-- Bronx Bombers are 2-3, but did win last two games.
-- White Sox are 2-2, despite scoring total of only ten runs. Indians lost three of their first four games.
-- Minnesota lost its first four games, scoring six runs.
-- Mariners lost their last two games, scoring five runs.
-- A's lost four of their first six games.

We're going to get into totals and umpires and that good stuff, once we get enough to lnowledge this season to make it all relevant.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
04/11/2012 12:06 PM

MLB

Wednesday, April 11

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Trend Report
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12:05 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. CLEVELAND
Chi White Sox are 17-8 SU in their last 25 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi White Sox's last 9 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cleveland's last 10 games at home
Cleveland is 3-11 SU in their last 14 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

12:35 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CINCINNATI
St. Louis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games

12:37 PM
BOSTON vs. TORONTO
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Boston's last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Toronto is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boston

1:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Detroit's last 14 games at home

1:10 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY METS
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 8 games when playing at home against Washington
NY Mets are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington

2:20 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. CHI CUBS
Milwaukee is 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Milwaukee's last 11 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Chi Cubs's last 18 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Chi Cubs are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing Milwaukee

3:35 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games
Oakland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games at home

6:35 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Arizona's last 11 games when playing San Diego
Arizona is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:05 PM
MIAMI vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Miami's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 15 games at home

7:05 PM
NY YANKEES vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
NY Yankees are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing NY Yankees

8:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. HOUSTON
Atlanta is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Houston is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Houston is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta

8:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. TEXAS
Seattle is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games
Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 6 games at home

8:10 PM
LA ANGELS vs. MINNESOTA
LA Angels are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 16 of LA Angels's last 24 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games

8:40 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. COLORADO
San Francisco is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing on the road against Colorado
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Colorado's last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco
Colorado is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Francisco

10:10 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. LA DODGERS
Pittsburgh is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Dodgers's last 7 games


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25009 Followers:33
04/11/2012 12:08 PM

MLB

Wednesday, April 11

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Betting MLB totals in the pitcher-friendly era
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Run production has dropped five straight years, from 4.86 per team in 2006 to 4.28 last year.

If the season’s first week is any indication, we won’t be seeing steroid-era scoring bonanzas any time soon. Teams combined for 8.3 runs per game, or 4.15 per team, in 60 games through Monday.

Remember when totals of 6.5 and 6 used to be rare? The LVH SuperBook opened the season with a 5.5 for the Dodgers-Padres matchup featuring Clayton Kershaw and Edinson Volquez. (Incidentally, the game went over with a 5-3 final).

“The biggest thing is the lack of home runs now,” handicapper Steve Merril said. “The steroid era is over, and there are fewer power hitters in the league.”

We talked to Merril and fellow handicapper Bryan Power to get their tips on betting totals in this low-scoring era.

Power said there can be value in going under totals as low as 6.

“When you have a total that low, the oddsmakers are basically tipping their hand,” said Power, a Covers Expert. “They’re strongly hoping that the public, which naturally prefers to bet overs, will see a small number and bet over.”

That value often disappears when ace pitchers like Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum square off, because oddsmakers know the public is more inclined than normal to bet under.

Merril has noticed a trend the past couple years with totals below 7.

“You’ll see 66 percent or more of the public on the over, yet the line drops even lower,”Merril said. “The public is on the over and the sharps are on the under, which is something you want to look for.”

Merril said he rarely plays over on totals below 7.

“There’s a good reason it’s so low,” he said. “Usually you have two very good pitchers, pitcher-friendly ballparks and bad offenses.”

Merril compared it to an NBA total in the 210 range.

“Usually you have two up-tempo teams that play no defense, and more often than not I find myself playing over,” he said.

Oddsmakers have adjusted to this pitcher-friendly era: the first 60 games yielded 30 overs and 30 unders.

Todd Fuhrman, senior sports analyst for Caesars Entertainment, said the increased number of totals under 7 is just one marked difference.

“The real adjustment is you see a lot more totals in the 7-8 range where historically you might have seen 8 or 9,” he said.

Seven and nine are key numbers. Because there are no ties in baseball - except in Bud Selig’s All-Star Game - games are less likely to land on 6 and 8. With bullpens taking on more importance and innings than ever, you should evaluate starters and relievers before playing a total.

Power also suggests you consider each team’s recent results and where the ballpark lies on the spectrum between AT&T Park (worst hitter’s park) and Rangers Ballpark in Arlington (best).

Some bettors retain a natural inclination to go over totals like 6.5 or 6, regardless of the teams, pitchers and parks involved.

Oddsmakers capitalize on that instinctive reaction.

“It takes a lot more guts for some of the novice bettors to go under 6.5,” Fuhrman said.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: