cnotes Posts:32172 Followers:37
03/31/2012 05:23 PM

Saturday's Best Bets:

03/31/2012 @ 04:35 PM


[803] TOTAL o193 1.91

03/31/2012 @ 04:35 PM


[805] TOTAL o177½ 1.91

03/31/2012 @ 04:35 PM


[806] PHILADELPHIA -6 1.91

03/31/2012 @ 04:35 PM


[808] DETROIT -7 1.91

03/31/2012 @ 05:35 PM


[809] MEMPHIS +3 1.91

03/31/2012 @ 05:35 PM


[812] SAN ANTONIO -8 1.91

03/31/2012 @ 07:05 PM


[813] TOTAL o210 1.91

03/31/2012 @ 07:35 PM


[816] LA CLIPPERS -5 1.91

03/31/2012 @ 03:05 PM


[817] TOTAL o137 1.91

03/31/2012 @ 05:45 PM


[820] KANSAS +3 1.91

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32172 Followers:37
03/31/2012 05:25 PM

Louisville, Kentucky In All-Bluegrass Battle

It might appall some and leave others shaking their heads that a silly college basketball game could lead to fisticuffs. But then, this is no ordinary college hoops contest, and you've got to love a rivalry that sends two senior citizens into a brawl. Adding to the fun was the scuffle came while both men were getting treatment at a dialysis clinic.

Welcome to the 2012 NCAA Final Four and the all-Bluegrass State matchup between the Kentucky Wildcats and Louisville Cardinals. If a couple of guys in their late-60s, early-70s were this worked up three days before the game, imagine the atmosphere inside Mercedes-Benz Superdome by the time the game tips on CBS at 6:09 p.m. (ET).

A quick check of the Don Best odds screen shows the game opened at Kentucky -8 with 138½ for the total. That spread has since been bumped up to 8½-9 in Las Vegas while the total ranges from 136½ to 138 at a majority of college basketball betting outlets.

Both Final Four contests are rematches from earlier in the schedule. Saturday's second contest between Ohio State and Kansas (8:49 p.m. ET) went the way of the Jayhawks last Dec. 10, and the annual Louisville-Kentucky meeting took place on New Year's Eve.

That Dec. 31 contest at Rupp Arena in Lexington was controlled by Kentucky despite the Wildcats failing to cover the 10-point spread in the 69-62 decision. Louisville's only lead came on a bucket about 10 seconds into the contest, though the Cardinals did manage to rally from a 15-point deficit to tie things at 40-40 five minutes into the second half. But UK still dominated the proceedings behind double-doubles from their two big men, Anthony Davis (18 points, 10 rebounds) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (24 and 19).

Two phases of the game that Kentucky particularly dominated Louisville were rebounding and foul shooting. With neither team shooting well that Saturday afternoon (UK 29.8% from the field, UL 32.3%), the Wildcats' 49-28 advantage on the glass was huge. Kentucky also outscored the Cards 32-18 from the charity stripe.

The free throw edge has followed the Wildcats during the NCAA Tournament with a 98-57 scoring margin in wins over Western Kentucky, Iowa State, Indiana and Baylor. The only team Kentucky didn't outscore in the free throw column was Iowa State who posted a slight 18-15 advantage over the 'Cats.

Kentucky also shot just 3-of-16 from long-range in the win over Louisville, but has managed to improve that facet of its game during March Madness. The Wildcats, seeded No. 1 in the South Regional, shot nearly 45 percent from beyond the arc (22-of-49) in the four wins to claim a Final Four berth compared to 26.1 percent (17-of-65) in the four games prior.

Louisville's run to the West Regional crown as a No. 4 seed didn't include the same eye-popping stats as Kentucky's 3-point or free throw shooting. The Cardinals did shoot a respectable 38.9 percent from 3-point land (23-of-59) in victories over Davidson, New Mexico, Michigan State and Florida, but only held a 52-44 scoring edge in those games from the charity stripe.

Defense and a solid effort protecting the basketball have been on display, however, during Louisville's impressive 8-game run that started with four victories in the Big East Tournament and has continued through the NCAA's. The Cardinals have limited their dance partners to just over 38 percent shooting from the field while committing only 36 turnovers and forcing 51.

Accompanying the 8-game win streak in the two tournaments is a perfect 8-0 record against the spread for Cardinals backers. The Wildcats missed the cover in their opening win over Western Kentucky, but have since posted three consecutive cash-outs in the triumphs against Iowa State, Indiana and Baylor.

While the two teams have been covering spreads the past couple of weeks, they are at odds when it comes to wagering on totals. Six of Louisville's last eight contests have remained 'under' the total, leaving the Cards 20-15 to the low side for the season. All four of Kentucky's tournament games have jumped the number after the Wildcats started March Madness with a 22-10 'under' mark.

The recent series between the two schools has heavily favored the 'under.' The last three meetings have finished short of the scoreboard hurdle by a combined 30½ points, with nine of the last 11 falling short of the total.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32172 Followers:37
03/31/2012 05:28 PM

Ohio State, Kansas Clash In Final Four Nightcap

The Final Four matchup between the Ohio State Buckeyes and Kansas Jayhawks has plenty of star power, but could ultimately be decided by the supporting casts.

Ohio State is a 2½-point favorite with a total of 136½-137. The spread is exactly where it opened for these No. 2 seeds. The Saturday coverage on CBS should start around 8:49 p.m. (ET) after the in-state, mega-clash between Kentucky and Louisville.

The Buckeyes (31-7 straight up, 20-13 against the spread) won the East Region in Boston thanks to a 77-70 decision over top-seed Syracuse. They were 2½-point favorites despite being the lower seed as the Orange were missing center Fab Melo, suspended the whole tourney due to academics. Ohio State is 3-1 ATS during March Madness and 6-2 ATS in its last eight.

The 147 combined points scored last game went well ‘over’ the 135½-point total. The ‘over’ is 4-0 for the Buckeyes this tourney (scoring 77.3 PPG and allowing 65.3 PPG) and 10-1 in their last 11 overall. The ‘over’ is also 13-4-1 in their road plus neutral site games this season.

Big man Jared Sullinger took advantage of Melo’s absence, scoring 19 points, including 9-of-12 from the line. He’s listed as third in the NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player odds, with three of the top-5 in this game (see table).

Sullinger (17.6 PPG) is one of the nation’s best low-post scorers and a legitimate wide-body. However, he’s generously listed at 6-foot-9 and could struggle while being defended by seven-foot Kansas center Jeff Withey.

Forward Deshaun Thomas (16.1 PPG) has led Ohio State in scoring the last four games at 21.8 PPG, and will have to step up big if Sullinger is neutralized. Shooting guard William Buford (14.4 PPG) is the third big scorer numbers-wise, but he’s shot just 38.6 percent from the field since January 7, including 29.5 percent (13-of-44) during this tournament.

Point guard Aaron Craft is a gritty player on both ends of the court, but not a huge scorer (8.8 PPG). Sophomore Lenzelle Smith Jr. (6.7 PPG), has exploded for 35 combined points the last two games, but can’t be counted on that again. There is almost no bench production, although Kansas isn’t much better.



Anthony Davis (Kentucky)


Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Kentucky)


Jared Sullinger (Ohio State)


Thomas Robinson (Kansas)


Deshaun Thomas (Ohio State)


The Jayhawks (31-6 SU, 18-17-1 ATS) won the Midwest Region in St. Louis with an 80-67 decision over top-seed North Carolina. They were two-point closing favorites, buoyed by the Tar Heels being without injured point guard Kendall Marshall. Kansas is 2-2 ATS during March Madness, failing to cover the prior two in close wins over NC State (60-57) and Purdue (63-60).

The 147 combined points scored last game went ‘over’ the 141½-point total. The ‘under’ was 3-0 in Kansas’ first three tourney games, scoring 62.7 PPG and allowing 55.7.

The Jayhawks have the height advantage down low in this contest with Withey and Thomas Robinson who is listed at 6-foot-10. Robinson (17.7 PPG) is the leading scorer for the year, but his points (15.8 PPG) and shooting percentage (37.9) are down this tourney. He’ll be able to take OSU’s Thomas down low, although there will be a mismatch on the other end when Robinson guards him on the perimeter.

Guard Tyshawn Taylor (16.7 PPG) is the other big scorer and had a great game against North Carolina with 22 points. He was really helped by Marshall being out and replaced by the defensively-challenged Stilman White. Taylor will have a much tougher time against Craft and Kansas can’t afford another 2-of-14 effort (six points) like against NC State.

Look for the Jayhawks to get the ball into Withey (9.2 PPG) early, as he’s a better scorer than given credit for (15 points vs. North Carolina) and they would love to get Sullinger into foul trouble. The rest of the starting lineup is guards Elijah Johnson (10.0 PPG) and Travis Relford (8.5 PPG). Both are juniors, but it’s Johnson who has been more aggressive lately (15.8 PPG last six).

Kansas beat Ohio State back on December 10 in Lawrence, 78-67 as 1½-point home favorites. Ohio State was undefeated and ranked second in the country heading in, but Sullinger was a late scratch with a back issue, shifting the spread. Robinson had 21 points, while Taylor had nine points and 13 assists despite playing with a knee injury. Buford and Thomas scored 21 and 19 respectively for OSU.

Kansas coach Bill Self is under less pressure than Ohio’s State’s Thad Matta. After all, Self and the Jayhawks won the 2008 national title over a Memphis Tigers team coached by John Calipari. There’s a good chance Calipari and Kentucky will win the Final Four opener on Saturday and be awaiting its opponent for Monday night’s final.

Matta made the national title game in 2007 with Greg Oden and company, but lost (84-75) to a juggernaut Florida squad that won its second championship in as many years. The Buckeyes still haven’t won the whole thing since 1960 when Jerry Lucas starred.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32172 Followers:37
03/31/2012 05:31 PM

Final Four Angles

March 29, 2012

It's onward to New Orleans for the Final Four games. To put the wraps on the 2012 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to as our Fab Four heads off to Bourbon Street this weekend.

All results listed below are ATS (Against the Spread) and most recent since 1991 unless noted otherwise. Enjoy…


#1 Seed favs 5 > pts are 4-0 ATS
#2 Seeds are 2-8 ATS off a DD ATS win
#4 Seeds are 0-4 ATS
Favs 4 > pts who scored 80 > pts in Elite 8 round are 1-6 ATS
Teams off BB SU dog wins are 2-8 ATS
Teams who are 3-0 SU & ATS last 3 games are 5-17 ATS
Teams with Revenge are 2-8 ATS
Dogs off BB DD SU wins are 1-5 ATS
ACC teams are 6-1 ATS
Big 12 teams are 1-4 ATS
Big 10 teams are 2-5 SU & ATS

#1 Seed favs are 6-2 ATS
#2 Seeds are 1-5 ATS off a SUATS win
#4 Seeds are 2-0 ATS
Favorites of 5 < pts are 11-1 ATS
Favorites who scored 80 > pts in the Final 4 round are 4-1 ATS
Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 1-5 ATS
Dogs > 2 pts who allowed 60 > pts in the Final 4 round are 1-6 ATS
Dogs of 3 > pts off a SU dog win are 1-5 ATS
Big East teams are 4-0 ATS
SEC teams are 3-1 ATS
ACC teams are 9-3 ATS
Big 10 teams are 1-6 ATS

Kansas' Bill Self is:

206-179-12 as a favorite and 31-25-1 ATS as a dog
32-12 SU and 26-18-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
9-4 SU and 5-8 ATS vs Big East
46-18 SU and 32-30-2 ATS vs Big 10
10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS vs SEC
1-1 SU and ATS vs Calipari
0-1 SU and ATS vs Matta
0-1 SU and ATS vs Pitino

Kentucky's John Calipari is:

252-225-14 ATS as a favorite and 54-26-1 ATS as a dog
36-13 SU and 26-22-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
25-9 SU and 17-16-1 ATS vs Big East
9-5 SU and 8-6 ATS vs Big 10
9-6 SU and ATS vs Big 12
0-1 SU and ATS vs Matta
8-8 SU and 12-4 ATS vs Pitino
1-1 SU and ATS vs Self
Louisville's Rick Pitino is:

259-234-13 ATS as a favorite and 46-33-1 ATS as a dog
44-13 SU and 33-21-3 ATS in NCAA tournament
16-11 SU and 11-16 ATS vs Big 10
2-1 SU and 1-0-1 ATS vs Big 12
144-31 SU and 96-84-4 ATS vs SEC
8-8 SU and 4-12 ATS vs Calipari
0-1 SU and ATS vs Matta
0-1 SU and ATS vs Self
Ohio State's Thad Matta is:

115-112-9 ATS as a favorite and 44-44-1 ATS as a dog
20-9 SU and 15-13-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
6-3 SU and ATS vs Big East
4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS vs Big 12
11-9 SU and 7-13 ATS vs SEC
1-1 SU and ATS vs Calipari
1-0 SU and ATS vs Pitino
0-1 SU and ATS vs Self
There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played the last 21 years.

I hope you've enjoyed the tournament as much as I have. I'll return during the NBA playoffs with an overview of some Good, Bad, and downright Ugly stats and trends. Until then, enjoy the rest of the 'Dance'.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32172 Followers:37
03/31/2012 05:35 PM

Final Four Tips

March 30, 2012

**Louisville vs. Kentucky**

--As of Friday afternoon, most books had Kentucky (36-2 straight up, 15-21-1 against the spread) favored by 8 ½ or nine. As for the total, it was at 137 1/2 at most spots. U of L is plus-400 on the money line (risk $100 to win $400).

--Louisville (30-9 SU, 22-13-1 ATS) has won eight straight games both SU and ATS, including this past Saturday’s 72-68 come-from-behind win over Florida. Russ Smith scored 19 points in just 22 minutes off the bench to spark a 12-1 run that helped the Cardinals overcome an 11-point deficit with 8:14 remaining. Chane Behanan added 17 points, including several key buckets in the lane at crunch time.

--Rick Pitino has U of L in its ninth Final Four and its first since 2005. The Cards won the Big East Tournament at MSG in NYC and then rolled off wins over Davidson (69-62), New Mexico (59-56) and Michigan St. (57-44) before beating the Gators.

--Kentucky has taken the cash in three consecutive games since failing to cover the number in an 81-66 win over Western Kentucky in its NCAA opener. The Wildcats blasted Iowa St. by an 87-71 count as 12-point favorites and they followed that up by avenging a regular-season loss at Indiana with 102-90 win. John Calipari’s team covered the number as a 10-point favorite against the Hoosiers in their Sweet 16 showdown at the Ga. Dome in Atlanta.

--In the South Region finals against third-seeded Baylor, Kentucky fell behind 10-5 in the early going. However, it was all ‘Cats after that as they cruised to an 82-70 win in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score indicated. Davis enjoyed another day at the office against the Bears, producing 18 points, 11 rebounds and six blocked shots. Kidd-Gilchrist paced UK with 19 points, while Terrence Jones had 12 points, nine boards, six assists and three blocked shots.

--These teams met on New Year’s Eve in Lexington at Rupp Arena with UK capturing a 69-62 victory as a 10-point ‘chalk.’ The 131 points stayed ‘under’ the 136-point total. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist exploded for 24 points and 19 rebounds. Anthony Davis added 18 points, 10 boards, six blocked shots and three steals, while Doron Lamb was also in double figures with 10 points. Russ Smith was the only U of L player in double figures, scoring a game-high 30 points.

--Louisville owns an 8-3 spread record with six outright wins in 11 games as an underdog this season.

--UK has compiled a 5-6 ATS record in 11 games as a single-digit favorite.

--The ‘under’ is 21-15 overall for Louisville, 10-2 in its last 12 games.

--The ‘under’ is 19-16-2 overall for the ‘Cats, who have seen the ‘over’ hit in four consecutive games.

--The ‘under’ is on an 11-2 roll in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these bitter rivals.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 6:09 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**Kansas vs. Ohio State**

--As of Friday, most spots had Ohio St. (31-7 SU, 20-13 ATS) installed as a 2 ½-point favorite with a total of 136 ½. Bettors can take KU to win outright for a plus-130 return (risk 100 to win $130).

--Thad Matta’s team is back in the Final Four for the first time since 2007, when it lost to Florida in the national-title game. The Buckeyes earned their 10th Final Four berth in school history with last Saturday’s night’s 77-70 win over Syracuse as 2 ½-point favorites. Jared Sullinger was the catalyst with 19 points and seven rebounds. Lenzelle Smith Jr. added 18 points and Deshaun Thomas finished with 14 points and nine boards.

--Kansas (31-6 SU, 18-17-1 ATS) advanced to the national semifinals thanks to an 80-67 win over banged-up North Carolina in the Elite Eight. The Jayhawks hooked up their backers as two-point favorites, utilizing a triangle-and-two defense for a good chunk of the second half to stymie the Tar Heels. Tyshawn Taylor snapped out of a scoring slump to drop 22 points on UNC. Taylor also had six rebounds, five assists and five steals. Thomas Robinson finished with 18 points and nine rebounds.

--Ohio St. senior William Buford knocked down 6-of-8 free throws against the ‘Cuse to get into double figures with 13 points. However, we should note his prolonged shooting slump going into this weekend. Buford, who averages 14.4 points per game, has scored below his average in six of the Bucks’ last seven games. He went 3-for-12 from the field against the ‘Cuse, 1-for-8 against Cincy and 4-of-13 against Gonzaga.

--These schools met in the regular season in Lawrence with KU winning by a 78-67 count as a 1 ½-point home favorite. But Sullinger was injured and did not dress out against the Jayhawks, who got 21 points and seven rebounds out of Robinson. Taylor dished out 13 assists, while Elijah Johnson chipped in with 15 points. Buford scored a team-high 21 points for the Buckeyes, who got 19 points from Deshaun Thomas.

--KU has been an underdog four times this year, posting a 1-2-1 ATS record with one outright win at Baylor (68-54).

--Ohio St. has compiled a 7-9 spread record in 16 games as a single-digit favorite.

--The ‘over’ has been a huge money maker in Ohio St. games recently, cashing at a 10-1 clip in its last 11 outings. For the season, the ‘over’ is 20-11-2 overall.

--The ‘under’ is 21-13-2 overall for KU.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--South Carolina made a brilliant hire when it plucked Frank Martin away from Kansas St. According to multiple reports, K-St. AD John Currie didn’t make much effort to keep Martin, who took the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament four times in five seasons. That’s a good thing for the Gamecocks, who won just two SEC games this year. Martin will change the hoops culture in Columbia fast.

--Even if Bradley Beal bolts for the NBA after his freshman season, Billy Donovan and UF will return the entire roster with the exception of Erving Walker and Beal, who is expected to be a lottery pick. Beal is returning home to St. Louis this weekend to discuss his future with his family.’s Chad Ford has Beal as the No. 4 pick in the first round in his latest mock draft. However, Beal’s father Bobby told the Gainesville Sun, “I know it’s going to be a hard decision for him. Some people say (leaving) is a no-brainer, but I know that he loves college, loves the atmosphere down there. He’s the kind of kid that when he starts something, he likes to finish it.”

--Kansas assistant Danny Manning has been named the new head coach at Tulsa. Manning, a superstar player who led the Jayhawks to the 1988 national title, paid his dues and went about becoming a head coach the right way. Congrats and best of luck to him.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32172 Followers:37
03/31/2012 05:37 PM

Louisville looks to stun Kentucky on Saturday



NCAA Tournament - Final Four
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:05 p.m. EDT – New Orleans, LA
Line: Kentucky -8½, Total: 137

The Final Four tips off Saturday with two familiar foes, as Louisville tries to upset in-state rival Kentucky.

When these teams met on New Year’s Eve, the Wildcats shot 29.8% FG (3-of-16 threes) and still won by seven points, 69-62. They dominated the paint, getting to the foul line 43 times and outrebounding Louisville 57-31. Can the Cardinals, riding an eight-game win streak (SU and ATS), hang in with their in-state rival? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

Louisville is now 8-0 (SU and ATS) on a neutral court this season (4 Big East Tournament wins, 4 NCAA Tournament wins) thanks to a stifling defense, allowing just 56.3 PPG on 38.3% FG in these eight contests. Even though Florida shot 50% in the Elite Eight, the Cardinals held the Gators to 68 points. The Cardinals are now third in the nation in FG Pct. defense (38.0% FG), seventh in steals (8.9 SPG) and 22nd in defending the three (31.7% 3-pt FG).

When these teams met on Dec. 31, the Cardinals had no starter score more than eight points as the five players combined for a mere 26 points on 8-of-35 shooting (22.9%). It was sophomore G Russ Smith (11.6 PPG) who kept them in the game with 30 points on 10-of-20 shooting (3-of-8 threes) off the bench. Smith was also the leading scorer in the Elite Eight win over Florida, tallying 19 points on 6-of-13 FG. Smith now has 15.7 PPG in his past three games, making 6-of-9 threes. But the team’s best player in the NCAA Tournament has been freshman F Chane Behanan (9.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG) who is averaging 14.0 PPG (64% FG) and 7.8 RPG. He had 17 points and seven boards in the win over Florida and will be a key to helping diffuse Kentucky’s great size down low. C Gorgui Dieng (9.2 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 3.2 BPG) will also need to have a huge night to upset the Wildcats. Dieng had a pedestrian eight points and six boards against the Gators, but he really made his presence felt in the Sweet 16 against Michigan State on the defensive end with seven blocked shots.

Louisville is at its best when junior PG Peyton Siva (9.1 PPG, 5.6 APG) is on the court and not committing silly fouls. After a brilliant four-game Big East Tournament (13.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.8 APG) and a strong NCAA opener against Davidson (17 points, six assists), Siva has just 6.3 PPG (32% FG) in his past three contests. He has 15 fouls in the four tourney games, fouling out of two of those contests. But he is distributing the ball very well with 8.5 APG in his past two games, and Siva had only one turnover in the win over Florida. Senior swingman Kyle Kuric (12.7 PPG, 4.2 RPG) continues to underwhelm in the NCAA Tournament. He’s scoring 9.5 PPG, but has totaled just nine rebounds and two assists in 142 total minutes of playing time. This four-star FoxSheets trend sides with the Cardinals on Saturday:

LOUISVILLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season. The average score was LOUISVILLE 69.9, OPPONENT 61.0 - (Rating = 4*).

Kentucky can beat you in so many ways. They score 77.9 PPG (15th in nation) on 48.8% FG (eighth in D-I), while allowing a mere 60.6 PPG on 37.5% FG, easily the best mark in the country. A good part of this suffocating defense is an interior that blocks a nation’s-most 8.6 shots per game and rebounds the basketball at a healthy +7.1 RPG margin (10th in nation). The Wildcats have strong depth, but they don’t have to dip into their bench all that often, as they only commit 14.8 fouls per game, which is the ninth-least amount in the country.

The Wildcats had six players score 8+ points in the 82-70 win over Baylor in the Elite Eight. Freshman C Anthony Davis (14.3 PPG, 10.1 RPG, 4.6 BPG) had the biggest impact with 18 points (6-of-9 FG), 11 boards and six blocks. Davis is now averaging 14.5 PPG, 11.0 RPG and 4.5 BPG in the NCAA Tournament, and he posted 18 points, 10 boards and six blocks against Louisville on New Year’s Eve. Fellow freshman F Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (12.0 PPG, 7.6 RPG) scored just 11 points in the first two NCAA games, but he has been tremendous in the past two contests with 21.5 PPG (56% FG, 14-of-14 FT) and 7.5 RPG. He completely dominated the Cardinals in their earlier meeting, throwing down 24 points with 19 rebounds (six offensive). The Wildcats’ other key frontcourt player is 6-foot-9 sophomore Terrence Jones (12.6 PPG, 7.2 RPG) who had a huge all-around game Sunday with 12 points, nine rebounds, six assists, three blocks and two steals.

Kentucky’s backcourt tends to get overshadowed by its amazing frontcourt, but these guards sure can play. The team has surpassed 13 turnovers in a game just once in its past 22 contests, tallying 12 games of single-digit turnovers. Freshman PG Marquis Teague (10.0 PPG, 4.8 APG) has 14.5 PPG and 5.3 APG in the tourney and has come a long way since his subpar performance against Louisville (four points, 1-of-8 FG, four turnovers, five fouls). Sophomore SG Doron Lamb (13.6 PPG, 47% 3-pt FG), is the long-range threat who has seven straight double-figure scoring games. He’s averaging 16.8 PPG (9-of-15 threes) in the NCAA tourney. SG Darius Miller comes off the bench, but he is still one of the better guards in the nation. He’s scoring 13.0 PPG on 59% FG and 13-of-14 FT in the NCAA Tournament so far. This strong FoxSheets trend also likes the Wildcats to win by a large margin:

Play Against - An underdog (LOUISVILLE) - after successfully covering the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, playing with 5 or 6 days rest. (32-12 since 1997.) (72.7%, +18.8 units. Rating = 2*).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32172 Followers:37
03/31/2012 05:41 PM

Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total very good team - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game, after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games
310-211 since 1997. ( 59.5% | 77.9 units )
19-21 this year. ( 47.5% | -4.1 units )

Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (LOUISVILLE) after 7 or more consecutive wins, playing with 5 or 6 days rest
52-6 since 1997. ( 89.7% | 36.1 units )
5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 0.1 units )

Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total after scoring 80 points or more 3 straight games
104-60 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.4% | 38.0 units )
8-13 this year. ( 38.1% | -6.3 units )

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32172 Followers:37
03/31/2012 05:42 PM

Saturday’s betting tips: Kansas OK with underdog tag

Who’s hot

NCAAB: Ohio State is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 neutral-site games.

NCAAB: Louisville is riding an 8-0 run against the spread.

NBA: New Orleans has covered in four of its last five.

NBA: San Antonio has covered in five straight home games.

NHL: New Jersey has won five of its last six against Carolina.

NHL: Los Angeles has won seven of its last nine.

Who’s not

NCAAB: Kansas is 2-11 against the spread in its last 13 vs. Big Ten opponents.

NCAAB: The under is 0-4 in Kentucky’s last four.

NBA: Los Angeles Lakers are 0-6 against the spread in their last six home games.

NBA: Indiana is 1-4 against the number in its last five in its last five road games.

NHL: Minnesota has won five of its last 16 home games.

NHL: Anaheim has won one of its last six road games.

Key stat

20 – The New Orleans Hornets have been forced to use 20 different starting lineups this season and played with a season-low eight healthy bodies in Thursday’s loss to Portland. It doesn’t get any easier for the Hornets Saturday as they visit the Lakers.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers – Irving suffered a sprained right shoulder Friday night but said after that he hoped to play Saturday against the Knicks. He’s currently listed as questionable. Irving averages 18.7 points and 5.7 assists per game.

Games of the day

Louisville Cardinals vs. Kentucky Wildcats (-8.5, 137)
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Kansas Jayhawks (2.5, 136.5)

Notable quotable

"We have a nice team. I don't know if you're a serious underdog when you won 31 games, you win your league by two games in a good league. But I do grow with what you're saying, from the start to now, I don't think that many people would have envisioned us being in this position. We have kind of flown under the radar, by Kansas standards of late, which I think has been very healthy for a team that's just trying to find themselves." Kansas Jayhawks coach Bill Self on being an underdog against Ohio State on Saturday.

Notes and tips

LeBron James remains the favorite to win the NBA MVP award, but if you ask the reigning winner, Derrick Rose, he says Kevin Durant has the inside track. When asked who he liked to win the award, Rose told “K-Love (Kevin Love) been putting in work too, but I think KD (Kevin Durant).” Oddsmakers currently have Durant around +600 to win the award, behind LeBron James and Kobe Bryant.

New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton is expected to appeal his one-year suspension in connection with the team's bounty program., citing a league source, reported that Payton will attempt to obtain the full investigative report from the NFL on the evidence against him and seek clarification on how much time he has to prepare his appeal. The suspension was scheduled to begin on April 1. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has promised a swift appeals process if Payton decides to go that route. Goodell has yet to announce punishments against New Orleans players. An NFL probe revealed that 22 to 27 players were involved in the bounty program.

St. Louis Blues left wing Andy McDonald will return to the lineup for Saturday night's game against the Columbus Blue Jackets. McDonald has been sidelined for six games with a shoulder injury suffered in a game against the Carolina Hurricanes on March 15. St. Louis, which has clinched a playoff berth and is closing in on the Central Division title, leads the New York Rangers by one point for the league's best record. McDonald, who missed four months with a concussion, has nine goals and 10 assists in 21 games this season. He had a six-game points streak prior to suffering the shoulder injury.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32172 Followers:37
03/31/2012 05:48 PM



Game 817-818: Louisville vs. Kentucky (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 70.205; Kentucky 80.321
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 10; 142
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 8 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-8 1/2); Over

Game 819-820: Ohio State vs. Kansas (8:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 76.398; Kansas 75.399
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 1; 133
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 2 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+2 1/2); Under

Long Sheet

Saturday, March 31


LOUISVILLE (30 - 9) vs. KENTUCKY (36 - 2) - 3/31/2012, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 65-43 ATS (+17.7 Units) in March games since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in March games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) on Saturday games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
LOUISVILLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent since 1997.
LOUISVILLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all tournament games this season.
LOUISVILLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOUISVILLE is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
KENTUCKY is 6-13 ATS (-8.3 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 2-1 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 3-0 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


OHIO ST (31 - 7) vs. KANSAS (31 - 6) - 3/31/2012, 8:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 165-129 ATS (+23.1 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
OHIO ST is 189-147 ATS (+27.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
OHIO ST is 122-89 ATS (+24.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS is 1-0 against the spread versus OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS is 1-0 straight up against OHIO ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


Short Sheet

Saturday, March 31

LOUISVILLE vs. KENTUCKY, 6:05 PM - NCAA Tournament - Final Four - Superdome - New Orleans, LA
LOUISVILLE: 8-0 ATS on neutral court
KENTUCKY: 9-1 Under on neutral floor if total is 130 to 139.5

OHIO STATE vs. KANSAS, 8:45 PM - NCAA Tournament - Final Four - Superdome - New Orleans, LA
OHIO STATE: 18-7 ATS Away w/ same season revenge
KANSAS: 6-13 ATS off double digit win

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 31

Final Four

Kentucky (-10) beat Louisville 69-62 on New Year's Eve; if I remember right, Cardinals hit two treys in last 0:10 to cover spread in game they trailed 31-16 early. Russ Smith had 30 off bench for Louisville, but two starting guards combined to shoot 4-23. Favorites covered three of four regional finals last week; going back 18 years, last four times favorites did that well in regional finals, underdogs covered two of three in Final Four all four times. Over last 25 years, #1 seed won/covered four of five against #4 seed in national semifinals. Kentucky shot 35.9% when it lost to Vanderbilt in this building 20 days ago; in its only other loss, Indiana made 9-15 from arc back on December 10, in 72-71 win. Since 1999, #1 seed is 7-1 vs spread in national semis against a #3 or lower seed.

Kansas (-1) beat Ohio State 78-67 in Lawrence Dec 10, shooting 58% in game Sullinger missed (back); Thomas had 13 assists despite a sore knee. This is first time since 1995 pair of #2 seeds meet in national semifinals; underdog won that game, which was only meeting of 2's in national semi since tournament went to 64 teams. Over last seven years, favorites are 9-5 vs spread in national semis, but dogs are 5-3 in semifinals if spread was less than 3 points. Kansas holds opponents to 40% inside the arc, (#1 in nation); they're 13-1 in last 14 games, losing only to Baylor in Big X tourney. Ohio State won eight of its last nine games, losing in final of Big Dozen tournament to Michigan State.


Saturday, March 31

Trend Report

6:09 PM
No trends available
Kentucky is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Louisville
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kentucky's last 11 games when playing Louisville

8:49 PM
No trends available
Kansas is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32172 Followers:37
03/31/2012 05:50 PM


Saturday, March 31

NCAA Final Four preview & pick: Louisville vs. Kentucky

No. 4 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (-8.5, 136)

THE STORY: One of college basketball’s fiercest rivalries figures to rise to an unprecedented level of intensity when the Cardinals and Wildcats meet in New Orleans for a berth in the national championship game. Kentucky’s appearance in the Final Four is no surprise. The Wildcats lost just one game in the regular season and have faced little opposition in rolling to 36 victories in 38 games. The Cardinals, meanwhile, saved their best work for late in the season. Louisville, which won the Big East tournament championship, rides an eight-game winning streak into New Orleans. Kentucky beat the Cardinals 69-62 on New Year’s Eve in Lexington and owns a 29-14 lead in the series.

TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Kentucky -8.5

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (30-9): The Cardinals lost four of their final six games entering the Big East tournament and battled injuries all season long. So how did Louisville win the conference title and then slay top-seed Michigan State and Florida on its way to New Orleans? Start with defense. The Cardinals have allowed just 56.3 points during their winning streak, and smothered Florida with a 23-8 surge in the final 10 minutes of the West Regional final on Saturday. The Cardinals rank third nationally in 3-point field-goal percentage defense (38.0 percent) and seventh in steals (8.9). But can Louisville play well enough on offense to stay close to Kentucky? The Cardinals shoot just 42.5 percent from the field (220th in the nation). Sophomore Russ Smith led the Cardinals with 19 points in the regional final, and Louisville got 17 points from freshman Chane Behanan, the West Regional’s most outstanding player.

ABOUT KENTUCKY (36-2): In their first four NCAA games, the Wildcats showed both the ability to completely take control with dominant stretches against Western Kentucky, Iowa State and Baylor, and the toughness to hold a stubborn Indiana just out of striking distance. The Wildcats’ balanced attack has shined in the tournament. Freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist earned most outstanding player honors of the South Regional after scoring 43 points in his past two games. Kentucky shot 80.2 percent from the free-throw line in its past two games (65-for-81), and continues to make life tough on opposing offenses with its strong interior defense (six blocks by freshman Anthony Davis against Baylor). Kentucky leads the nation in blocked shots (8.6) and field-goal percentage defense (37.5 percent).


* Under is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings.
* Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Wildcats are 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games.
* Cardinals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs.


1. The Cardinals and Wildcats did not play for 24 years, until the 1983 Mideast Regional final, won by Louisville 80-68 in overtime. That game led to the renewal of a series that dates back to 1913.

2. The Wildcats are two wins away from their first national title since 1998. Their coach in that championship season? Current Louisville coach Rick Pitino.

3. Louisville scored 15 points off turnovers against Florida, illustrating the Cardinals’ pressure-driven defense that’s helped fueled their late-season surge.

Pick: Kentucky



Saturday, March 31

NCAA Final Four preview & pick: Ohio State vs. Kansas

No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks (+2.5, 136.5)

THE STORY: Something was missing when Kansas beat then-No. 2 Ohio State on Dec. 10 at Allen Fieldhouse -- namely Buckeyes star Jared Sullinger -- but both teams will be at full strength for the rematch Saturday in New Orleans. Sullinger and teammate Deshaun Thomas will clash with Kansas star Thomas Robinson and 7-footer Jeff Withey in a matchup of two of the nation's top frontcourt duos.

TV: Approx. 8:50 p.m. ET, CBS

ABOUT OHIO STATE (31-7): The Buckeyes are in their 10th Final Four and are seeking their second title -- and their first since 1960 -- after a 77-70 win over No. 1 seed Syracuse on Saturday. They're certainly peaking at the right time to win it. After losing three of five during a rough stretch in February, the Buckeyes have won eight of nine, with the loss coming in the Big Ten tournament final against Michigan State. Five Buckeyes have averaged double-digits in the tournament, led by Thomas' 21.8 points to go with 8.5 rebounds per game.

ABOUT KANSAS (31-6): The Jayhawks advanced to their 14th Final Four with an 80-67 win over No. 1 seed North Carolina on Sunday. It's the Jayhawks' second trip to the Final Four under coach Bill Self, who led them to the 2008 national title. Robinson led the Jayhawks with 21 points and seven rebounds in the first meeting, but he almost certainly will see a different defensive look from the Buckeyes with Sullinger in the lineup. Perhaps more important to the Jayhawks, though, is whether senior point guard Tyshawn Taylor can give a more consistent performance than in the first meeting -- he had nine points and 13 assists, but also seven turnovers, in the victory in December.


* Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven NCAA tournament games.
* Jayhawks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big Ten.
* Over is 10-1 in Buckeyes' last 11 overall.
* Under is 17-4 in Jayhawks' last 21 NCAA tournament games.


1. The Jayhawks have won six of nine all-time meetings, including four straight.

2. Both teams have come to expect double-doubles from their star forwards. Robinson has set a Kansas record with 26 this season, and Sullinger is 10th all-time at Ohio State with 34 in his career.

3. Kansas has won 13 of 14 to reach the 30-win plateau for the third straight year and the fifth time in six seasons.

Pick: Ohio State



Saturday, March 31

Take it or leave it: Breaking down the Final Four rematches

Rarely does the Final Four lend itself to recent trends and matchups. College basketball teams change each season, and stats and figures from years ago hold about as much weight as the runway in a fashion show.

However, basketball bettors get a gift from the Gambling Gods this March with both Final Four games pegged as rematches of non-conference regular season meetings.

Ohio State tangled with Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse on Dec. 10, with the host Jayhawks winning 78-67 as 1.5-point home favorites. State rivals Kentucky and Louisville rang in the New Year with a 69-62 Wildcats win in Rupp Arena, with UK failing to cover the 10-point spread on Dec. 31.

All four programs have improved by leaps and bounds since those meetings. And while much of what happened during those December dates can get tossed in the trash, there are some important notes bettors should keep in mind when sizing up the odds for this Saturday’s national semifinal games.

Here’s what to take and what to leave from the first matchups between the Final Four contenders:

Kansas Jayhawks 78, Ohio State Buckeyes 67 – Dec. 10, 2011

Take it: Sans Sullinger

The Buckeyes were without All-American center Jared Sullinger due to back spasms in their first meeting with the Jayhawks. Ohio State’s offense flows through the post and without the stud sophomore sucking in the defense, their sets looked lost.

The Buckeyes shot just under 39 percent and went to the foul line only 18 times. Ohio State has been to the stripe 69 times in the last two games with Sullinger going 18 for 22 from the foul line in that span.

Leave it: Kansas shooting

The Jayhawks were on fire versus OSU, shooting 58 percent from the field and 9 for 17 from beyond the arc. Kansas took advantage of Sullinger’s absence, getting 21 points from Thomas Robinson, and finding lots of room for shooters and passing lanes because the Buckeyes couldn’t cheat up without their big man in the middle.

Kansas isn’t shooting well in the tournament, hitting only 40.6 percent of its buckets. It's been especially dismal from beyond the arc, going 16 for 68 (23.5 percent) from distance. The Jayhawks shot 46 percent versus North Carolina, but a lot of those came on layups in transition.

Take it: Tyshawn toughs it out

Tyshawn Taylor took on the top perimeter defender in college basketball with just one leg back in December. It will be interesting to see what happens when the healthy KU guard tangles with OSU’s Aaron Kraft this weekend.

Taylor scored nine points on 3-of-9 shooting and committed seven turnovers, playing on a torn meniscus and sprained right MCL on Dec. 10. But he also dished out 13 assists and got to the foul line six times. Taylor, who struggled in the first three games of the NCAA (and is 0 for 17 from 3-point land), showed up when KU needed him most, scoring 22 points in the Elite Eight win over UNC.

Kentucky Wildcats 69, Louisville Cardinals 62 – Dec. 31, 2011

Leave it: Old acquaintance be forgot

Covers Expert Ted Sevransky drew attention to the fact that this game was played at noon on New Year’s Eve, in his Final Four writeup this week. Not only did a distracted Wildcats squad shoot just 29.8 percent from the field and commit a season-high 20 turnovers, but also burned backers bad.

Kentucky, ahead by 13 points with 10 seconds left, started daydreaming about ringing in 2012 with the co-eds instead of closing out the Cardinals. The lack of focus led to one of the worst beats of the season.

Kentucky, a 10-point favorite, watched as Russ Smith buried a 3-pointer then got the ball back on a steal and drained another trey at the buzzer to trim the lead to seven, forcing UK backers to change their New Year’s resolutions from “stop smoking” to “stop betting on Kentucky.” That blown cover was part of a 0-13-1 ATS skid for the Wildcats that spanned nearly two months.

Take it: Wildcats Windex

Kentucky dominated the glass in its previous meeting with Louisville, out-rebounding its state rival 49-28, including 14 offensive boards. The Cardinals were beaten on the glass by Florida and New Mexico State, but somehow outworked Michigan State – the best rebounding team in the country – by two rebounds.

The Wildcats average more than 36 rebounds per game in the tournament – 10.5 of those on the offensive glass. Kentucky forwards Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are a handful for Louisville’s four-guard set, and were responsible for 40 of UK’s 49 boards back on Dec. 31.

Leave it: No Russ, No Muss

Russ Smith has shown up in the biggest games of the season for Louisville. He scored 19 points and sparked a late rally against Florida to get the Cardinals into the Final Four. And, back in December, he dropped 30 points on perhaps the best defensive team in college hoops. Smith, a 6-foot sophomore who comes off the bench, went 10 for 20 (including 3 for 8 from 3-point range) to keep UL in the game. He was the only Louisville player in double figures.

But, as much as Smith can help the Cardinals, he can hurt them. He was careless down the stretch versus the Gators, committing two of his four turnovers in the final 2:25 of the game and can sometimes be a blackhole when he gets his hands on the basketball. For a guy who plays just under 21 minutes a game, he uses a team-high 32.5 percent of UL’s possessions. The Cardinals can’t afford wasted possessions versus Kentucky, which over the past two games is averaging 1.35 points every time it touches the ball.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: