Lehigh +3.5 over Xavier. We're expecting the Mountain Hawks to at least keep it within the numbers tonight in Greensboro, N.C. Our analysis
has this game lined as a pick'em at best (even). If you think that Lehigh beating #2 seeded Duke was just a fluke, consider thinking again. Lehigh, led by the nation's fifth best scorer in C.J. McCollum, is a perfect 5-0 ATS this year in all lined games vs winning teams. They have the mental toughness it requires to win a NCAA Tournament Game straight up as an underdog. They believe they can win, and their talent's not stopping that. Statistically, they outscore, outdefend, and outbench the Musketeers. In their last five, they've averaged 77.2 points/game on 46.7% shooting, while outscoring foes by an average of 8.8 points/game. Xavier enters this game just 2-8-1 ATS in their last eleven, where they are 6-5 SU. They've averaged 67.2 points/game on 45.3% shooting in their last five games. But they're outscoring their opponents by an average of just 2.2 points/game in those five. Xavier's game plan will focus around stopping McCollum, but we don't see them succeeding where Duke failed. There's always the looming possibility of a let-down after such an emotional upset victory, but we don't see one today. The Mountain Hawks are 6-0 at the window in their last six games when catching points, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. The Musketeers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when laying 0.5-6.5 points, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU victory. We suspect the "let-down" will be with Xavier tonight. We'll grab the points with Lehigh, and put our faith in Coach Reed to keep the troops focused on the task at hand.
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