cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
03/14/2012 06:18 PM

Las Vegas Money Moves

March 14, 2012


Out of the 30 NCAA Tournament games posted at Wynn Las Vegas, only two of the favorites have been bet up to a higher spread with all the others either staying flat or dropping. Of course that could all change as we get closer to game time. Most of the line movement thus far has been from Sharp money looking for the best value of their sides.

Wynn Las Vegas sports book director Johnny Avello has seen a lot of changes cycle through the betting world in his 25 years of setting odds, but has noticed a major change the last six years in the tournament.

“Things have a changed a lot in regards to the quality of teams. The lower seeds have gotten better and the higher seeds have come back to the pack,” says Avello. “You no longer see the 16 and 15 seeds getting 30 or 29-points in a game.”

“I just posted the Kentucky game at minus-25 against Western Kentucky which is four points higher than any of the top seeds.”

Of the top eight seeds, Missouri (-21) is the highest spread with Syracuse down from -18 to -15 ½ because of the news that defensive superstar Fab Melo won’t be playing. The first bets on Missouri game came against them as bettors took the opener of +22 with Norfolk State.

Part of that trend may be because the higher ranked teams have star players that have no intention of sticking around, going to class and developing team chemistry. Whereas some of these smaller schools have kids that have played together three or four years created great continuity. This is how we get the George Mason’s, Butler’s and VCU’s into the Final Four.

Because of the small-lesser known schools have a better shot than years past, professional bettors have been jumping on board with the underdogs looking for the right Cinderella.

“This is a normal process for sharp money,” Avello says, “They’re looking for the best value and it says a lot when their first bets are taking the points.”

The only favorites that have moved up have been UNLV and Michigan State. The Rebels got immediate action laying minus-5 against Pac-12 Champion Colorado. The Spartans, fresh off their Big-10 Championship, moved from an opener of -18 ½ to -20 against LIU-Brooklyn.

The biggest move has seen Harvard money come strong against Vanderbilt. Vandy opened as 8 ½-point favorites and now sits at -5 ½.

Montana action has come in almost as strong. The Grizzlies opened as 11 ½-point ‘dogs to Wisconsin and currently sit at +9.

Again, the bulk of the action will come on Thursday and Friday and in most cases, favorites will be bet by the public who sit and watch the games at the sports book all day. In most cases, these types of bettors play each game close to tip-off with the amount of their wagers dependent upon how they’re day has gone thus far.

If it’s a winning day, the wager is higher than their normal unit bet. If it’s a bad day, the bets are smaller as a trip to the ATM is usually required. In each case, the emotions of the wins and losses are put to extremes thanks to a long a day of drinking.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
03/14/2012 06:20 PM

Cinderella Squads

March 14, 2012

Over the past few years, Butler and VCU have changed the game.

Consider it a product of the one-and-done era, where top teams are forced to reload by incorporating new talent each season, but mid-majors have not so quietly closed the gap by developing chemistry and cohesion, seeing it translate into unprecedented results this time of year.

It's because of this that a 9-year-old can win your bracket pool. My 3-year-old daughter had Richmond making a run last year due to her fascination with spooky spiders. The unheralded A-10 school reached the Sweet 16.

Neighboring VCU had a longer run, shocking the world by getting all the way to the Final Four, which of course begs the question, who's going to do it this year?

As a rule, there's no way a Top-8 seed should ever qualify as a Cinderella, especially if they don't suffer the same disadvantages of typical mid-majors. That means Wichita State is out, as is MVC roommate Creighton, led by a national Player of the Year candidate in Doug McDermott. If you're the defending champion, underachieving all season and winding up a No. 9 seed doesn't qualify you for a slipper fitting, either. Sorry, UConn.

Here are the eight teams who do meet the admittedly stringent criteria:

SOUTH

Slipper favorite: #10 Xavier - This team absolutely performed below expectations, since the Musketeers were being trumpeted as Final Four candidates prior to their brawl with Cincinnati. Once that adversity hit, the Musketeers wound up fractured. Too many individuals attempted to do their own thing, disrupting the chemistry that keyed the strong start. Xavier looked to be working its way back late in the season, reaching the A-10 Tournament final and allowing Mark Lyons to spark a comeback against Dayton in the quarterfinals as opposed to letting it all ride on Tu Holloway's shoulders. Star freshman Dezmine Wells rose to the challenge and senior center Kenny Frease asserted himself more and started knocking down free throws. Beating Notre Dame won't be easy, but is certainly doable. Taking down Duke in Greensboro would be a chore, but Ryan Kelly might have to sit out the weekend, improving Xavier's chances of reaching the Sweet 16.

Slipper candidate: #12 VCU - No rule against back-to-back Cinderella status, right, Butler? Shaka Smart's Rams can dream about consecutive Final Four appearances given their draw. If they can get past the Shockers, playing Indiana way out in Portland guarantees a fair shot at the Sweet 16. Bradford Burgess, one of the stars of last year's run, will have to lead them. VCU throws off teams with its constant pressure and has enough 3-point shooters capable of getting hot and significantly altering a bracket.

WEST

Slipper favorite: #12 Long Beach State - There aren't many point guards better than Casper Ware in these NCAAs, so when you have a head of the snake as proficient as that senior, you always have a chance. The 49ers went 15-1 in Big West play and rolled through the conference tournament without top forward Larry Anderson, who was resting a knee injury. He's expecting to play against New Mexico, boosting the chances of a team that played seven NCAA Tournament participants during the regular season. Head coach Dan Monson has had success this time of year and is one of the most unheralded talents in his profession, while the region also helps, since an upset of the Lobos means a likely date with Indiana, which is roughly 2,000 miles from home.

Slipper candidate: #9 Saint Louis - Rick Majerus has put together a veteran team that prides itself on defense and being tougher than you are. Forward Brian Conklin might as well be playing with a hard hat on, while Australian Cody Ellis is one of the more versatile athletes in this tournament. If guards Kwamain Mitchell and Mike McCall can hit enough shots, the Billikens will be a tough out.

MIDWEST

Slipper favorite: #13 Ohio - D.J. Cooper is another point guard whose game you have to see to appreciate, so expect him to surprise those who haven't. He's small, generously listed at 5-foot-11 but a few inches shorter, but has a fearless game and typically gets himself and teammates going. He'll give freshman Trey Burke all he can handle in the Bobcats opener, especially if his supporting cast is knocking down shots. Nick Kellogg, the son of CBS analyst and former NBA player, Clark, is one of the deadliest shooters in the country. The sophomore guard knocked down 77 3-pointers and shot 42 percent from beyond the arc, never shying away from a big moment. If Ohio can shock Michigan, beating the Temple-Cal/USF winner is manageable.

Slipper candidate: #14 Belmont - Speaking of 3-pointers, the Bruins utilize the game's great equalizer as well as anyone in the country and have already established themselves as one of the teams you don't want to see pop up in your pairing. The A-Sun champs become Georgetown's nightmare, so it's no surprise shrewd oddsmakers have made the Hoyas a four-point favorite in what screams, trap line. Belmont opened the season losing to Duke, 77-76, and feature three players who have hit at least 40 3-pointers. One of them, Ian Clark, is a guard who can stand out in any conference in the country.

EAST

Slipper favorite: #12 Harvard - Ending a drought of 66 years between Ivy League titles, Harvard isn't just happy to be in the NCAA Tournament. Not only does Tommy Amaker know what he's doing, he brings in a veteran team that packs size, solid guards and obviously, intelligence. The Crimson are 26-4 and held Florida State to 41 points when the teams met in the Bahamas way back in November. As nice as a tropical getaway might sound, Harvard can actually head home to the Boston regional if it can slip past Vanderbilt and the Wisconsin/Montana winner, supplying more Cinderella ammunition.

Slipper candidate: #11 Texas - The Longhorns aren't your typical longshot, especially since guards J'Covan Brown and Myck Kabongo are likely to play at the next level. Still, Texas was overshadowed by a handful of Big 12 teams and needed a late push just to earn an at-large bid. With Cincinnati up first and a date against the FSU/St. Bonaventure winner promised after that, Rick Barnes' squad has a path they can navigate if they play to their potential.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
03/14/2012 06:23 PM

Consensus Final Four

March 14, 2012

Filling out the NCAA Tournament brackets is always a head-scratcher as the toughest part is figuring out the upsets and who will make the Final Four. The championship in April takes place at the Superdome in New Orleans, as top-ranked Kentucky seems like a team that will be playing in the Big Easy. However, the road is anything but easy for several of the top teams, including Syracuse, Michigan State, and North Carolina. We caught up with some of VegasInsider's college basketball handicappers to see their recommendations for the Final Four.

Nine of the 11 handicappers polled picked Kentucky to represent the Southeast Regional, as the Wildcats would likely have to knock off two of these three impressive teams (Indiana, Baylor, and Duke). Jimmy Boyd feels that the Wildcats have too much firepower for their competition, "Kentucky is perhaps the best defensive team in the nation. It ranked 10th in the country in field goal percentage defense (39.1 percent) last season when it made a Final Four run and coach John Calipari has gotten even more out of his team this year. The Wildcats lead the country in field goal percentage defense, only allowing their foes to shoot 36.8 percent. Freshman phenom Anthony Davis is a big reason why. He averages 10.1 rebounds a contest and 4.6 blocks per game. He has the ability to guard smaller players on the perimeter and is great in help defense. Davis has also established himself as a versatile scoring threat."

Meanwhile, the team that knocked off Kentucky in the SEC championship is turning into a hot pick to make the Final Four. Brian Edwards believes that this is Vanderbilt's year to make a run to New Orleans, "In terms of crowd noise, that's basically a road win over the Wildcats, whose rabid fan base always descends on the annual event (which took place in New Orleans). The Commodores had already waged a pair of 40-minute slugfests against a UK team that's the tourney's No. 1 overall seed and is widely considered the most talented team in America. Kevin Stallings has a senior-laded squad that's been snake-bitten in the last two NCAA Tournaments, losing at the buzzer to Murray St. two years ago and in the final minute to Richmond last season. Therefore, hunger won't be an issue for Vandy, nor will confidence after the win over Kentucky.

Tony Stoffo sees Missouri as the team that will cut down the nets after taking home the Big 12 tournament championship before heading to the SEC next season, "The Tigers are a guard-driven, up-tempo offense. Their super dynamic guard play will get them past Michigan State into the Final 4. Missouri doesn't turn the ball over as they are seventh in the country in fewest turnovers per game at 10.5. I really like their quickness and perimeter play with Dixon, English, Pressey, and Ratcliffe in the inside. Add in that there isn't much size in their bracket - ensures that they move on. Plus with the chemistry that they have makes them my surprise Tournament Champion here this year."

From the sleeper standpoint, there are several clubs that can pull off surprises and advance past the first weekend. Joe Nelson believes that New Mexico will make some noise in the West regional as a five-seed, "The Mountain West was a very tough conference this season and New Mexico came out on top in both the regular season and in the conference tournament. The efficiency numbers on both sides of the ball are excellent and the Lobos are 25-4 in the last 29 games (not to mention going 22-8 ATS on the season). New Mexico will be the only real contender in a loaded West region that is geographically a western team and they would have a substantial venue advantage if they can get to Phoenix for the Sweet 16 (possibly vs. 1 seed Michigan State)."

Meanwhile, St. Louis has made tremendous strides inside the Atlantic-10, while picking up a nine seed in the West Regional. Bruce Marshall feels that the Billikens can go very far in this tournament, "Reminiscent of Rick Majerus' best Utah teams, with solid defense, good backcourt leadership in Kwamain Mitchell (much like Andre Miller provided for Majerus at Utah), and an inside presence in Brian Conklin (though not as big as Michael Doleac from Majerus' Utah final team, Conklin plays bigger than his 6-6 size on the blocks). The Billikens can control the pace on anybody. If the Bills get by Memphis in the first round they likely get Michigan State, a game likely played into the 50's and a very tough matchup for the Spartans. Past that, SLU would eventually have to get by Mizzou or Marquette (one of Majerus' former employers from his hometown) and would be able to slow down either and make it a very uncomfortable game for the Tigers or Golden Eagles."

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
03/14/2012 06:26 PM

Thursday Afternoon Games

March 14, 2012

The second round of the NCAA Tournament begins on Thursday with a full card of 16 games to wager on. We'll take a look here at the eight day contests, including three Big East teams taking the court (Syracuse, Marquette, and Louisville). The day begins in Louisville with one of the nation's biggest surprises looking to keep up their magical season.

[11] Colorado State vs. [6] Murray State (-4, 135 ½) - 12:15 PM EST

The Racers enter the tournament with a resounding 30-1 record, while claiming both the Ohio Valley regular season and conference tournament titles. Murray State is roughly a four-hour drive from KFC Yum Center in Louisville, where the Racers' second round game takes place against Colorado State. The Rams claimed an at-large berth out of the Mountain West at 20-11, as CSU cashed in seven of its final eight games of the season. Colorado State won only two of its nine games away from Ft. Collins in MWC play, including losses at Boise State and TCU. Murray State's lone loss came to Tennessee State in early February, as the Racers compiled a 9-3 ATS record as a single-digit favorite this season.

[9] Southern Miss vs. [8] Kansas State (-5, 133 ½) - 12:40 PM EST

In one of the more intriguing matchups on Thursday, the Wildcats and Golden Eagles will play for the right to likely take on top-seeded Syracuse in the third round. K-State handled Missouri twice, while also knocking off Baylor in Waco as 7 ½-point underdogs. Frank Martin's club put together a 7-9 ATS ledger in the favorite role, while failing to cover in the 3-5 pointspread range against West Virginia, Texas, and Oklahoma. Southern Miss didn't cash tickets in its final seven games of the season, even though six of those contests came in the 'chalk' role. The Golden Eagles did push the pace with a 10-2 'over' run the final 12 games, while scoring at least 75 points six times.

[13] Davidson vs. [4] Louisville (-7 ½, 138 ½) - 1:40 PM EST

This will be a rough wake-up call for the Wildcats and Cardinals, who tip things off at 10:40 AM local time at the Rose Garden in Portland. Louisville grabbed the Big East tournament crown with an ugly victory over Cincinnati, capping off a run of four wins in four days. The Cardinals are in the Big Dance for the sixth straight season, while trying to win their opening game after losing the last two against Cal (2010) and Murray State (2011). Davidson captured the automatic berth after winning the Southern Conference title, as the Wildcats finished 19-2 in conference play. Four seasons after making a run to the Elite Eight, Davidson's signature victory this season came at Kansas as 13-point 'dogs, avenging the loss to the Jayhawks that preventing the Wildcats from going to the Final Four in 2008. The Wildcats fell to Wichita State, Vanderbilt, and Duke in non-conference play, but all three games finished 'over' the total.

[13] Montana vs. [4] Wisconsin (-9, 118 ½) - 2:10 PM EST

The first game in Albuquerque isn't a sexy one by any stretch, as the grind-it-out Badgers battle Montana. Wisconsin fell to eventual Big 10 champ Michigan State in the semifinals of the conference tournament, but Bo Ryan's team has won 12 of their past 16 games. However, the Badgers aren't profiting over the last 20 contests by posting a 7-13 ATS mark, while going 2-5 ATS the last seven games as a favorite. Montana is back in the tournament for the first time since 2010 as the Grizzlies claimed the Big Sky title, while winning each of its final 14 games. The signature non-conference victory for Montana came against Long Beach State, who is a 12-seed in the West Regional. The Grizzlies own a 15-5 ATS record in their previous 20 lined games, while three of the non-covers came as double-digit favorites.

[14] BYU vs. [3] Marquette (-6) - 2:40 PM EST

The Cougars pulled off a historic tournament triumph by overcoming a 25-point deficit in Tuesday's 78-72 rally over Iona as two-point favorites. BYU makes the short trip from Dayton to Louisville as the Cougars take on a Marquette squad that finished the season at 25-7. The Golden Eagles were a profiting machine early January by posting a 12-5 ATS mark, while going 6-2 ATS in this stretch as a single-digit favorite. BYU took advantage in its first season as a member of the West Coast Conference by compiling a 26-8 record, including a 13-5 conference ledger. The Cougars are in the midst of a 2-5 ATS run, which includes the comeback victory against Iona, while going 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season.

[16] UNC-Asheville vs. [1] Syracuse (-15, 147) - 3:10 PM EST

The Orange is the top seed in the East Regional, but Jim Boeheim's team will be without its center Fab Melo for the entire tournament due to eligibility issues. Syracuse should take care of business against a UNC-Asheville club that claimed the Big South title with a victory over VMI in the conference championship game. The Bulldogs average 81 points per game, while busting the 80-point mark eighteen times this season (including a six-game stretch during conference play). Syracuse lost only two games all season against Notre Dame and Cincinnati, as the Orange struggled down the stretch covering numbers by putting together a 2-7 ATS record the last nine games.

[12] Long Beach State vs. [5] New Mexico (-4, 137) - 4:10 PM EST

The Lobos are one of the hottest ATS teams as of late by covering 12 of their last 14 games, while taking home the title of the Mountain West tournament. New Mexico will have its hands full against Long Beach State, who won both the Big West regular season title and tournament championship at 25-8. The 49ers picked up 18 victories in 19 tries against conference foes, including a 7-2 ATS run down the stretch. New Mexico finished a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS as a favorite of five points or less this season, including wins over tournament teams UNLV, San Diego State, and New Mexico State.

[12] Harvard vs. [5] Vanderbilt (-5 ½, 122 ½) - 4:40 PM EST

Two of the brainier schools in the tournament meet up at the Pit in New Mexico for an intriguing matchup between the SEC and the Ivy League. The Commodores upset top-ranked Kentucky to claim the SEC tournament crown as 7 ½-point underdogs, 71-64. Vandy has dropped its opening game in the NCAA tournament in the last three tries, including a three-point loss to Richmond last March. The Crimson finished off a spectacular season with a 26-4 mark and their first appearance in the Big Dance since 1946, when the field was composed of only eight teams. Harvard stumbled to a 3-8 ATS finish, but all 11 of those games came in the 'chalk' role. The Commodores closed the season at 8-3 ATS, including covers against Kentucky and Florida.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
03/14/2012 06:29 PM

NCAAB
Dunkel

South Florida vs. California
The Bears look to take advantage of a South Florida team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 neutral site games. California is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bears favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: California (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's picks as well as the first and second rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 14

Game 593-594: Manhattan at Albany (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 54.025; Albany 50.831
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 3; 141
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 1 1/2; 144 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-1 1/2); Under

Game 595-596: Yale at Fairfield (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 53.553; Fairfield 59.989
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 6 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 8 1/2; 124
Dunkel Pick Yale (+8 1/2); Over

Game 597-598: Bowling Green at Oakland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 54.651; Oakland 55.902
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: Oakland by 4; 153 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+4); Under

Game 625-626: Vermont vs. Lamar (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vermont 54.911; Lamar 59.384
Dunkel Line: Lamar by 4 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Lamar by 3; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Lamar (-3); Over

Game 627-628: South Florida vs. California (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 63.961; California 68.180
Dunkel Line: California by 4; 116
Vegas Line: California by 2 1/2; 115
Dunkel Pick California (-2 1/2); Over

Game 629-630: Minnesota at LaSalle (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 64.407; LaSalle 66.228
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 2; 132
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 3; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick Minnesota (+3); Under

Game 631-632: Central Florida at Drexel (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 59.320; Drexel 63.719
Dunkel Line: Drexel by 4 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Drexel by 7 1/2; 124
Dunkel Pick Central Florida (+7 1/2); Over

Game 633-634: Northern Iowa at St. Joseph's (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Iowa 56.134; St. Joseph's 67.904
Dunkel Line: St. Joseph's by 12; 128
Vegas Line: St. Joseph's by 6 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick St. Joseph's (-6 1/2); Under

Game 635-636: Valparaiso at Miami (FL) (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 57.806; Miami (FL) 65.470
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 7 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 10 1/2; 135
Dunkel Pick Valparaiso (+10 1/2); Under

Game 637-638: Bucknell at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bucknell 57.376; Arizona 68.122
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Arizona by 8 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick Arizona (-8 1/2); Over

Game 639-640: Nevada at Oral Roberts (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 57.414; Oral Roberts 65.102
Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 7 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: Oral Roberts by 5 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick Oral Roberts (-5 1/2); Over

Game 641-642: Illinois State at Mississippi (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois State 61.114; Mississippi 65.393
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 4 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 6 1/2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick Illinois State (+6 1/2); Under

Game 649-650: Wofford at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 50.192; Pittsburgh 61.261
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 11; 125
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 13 1/2; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick Wofford (+13 1/2); Under

Game 651-652: Quinnipiac at Pennsylvania (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Quinnipiac 53.546; Pennsylvania 61.379
Dunkel Line: Pennsylvania by 8; 136
Vegas Line: Pennsylvania by 4; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick Pennsylvania (-4); Over

Game 653-654: Delaware at Butler (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Delaware 52.607; Butler 63.693
Dunkel Line: Butler by 11; 128
Vegas Line: Butler by 9; 132
Dunkel Pick Butler (-9); Under

Game 655-656: North Dakota State at Wyoming (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 51.883; Wyoming 60.155
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 8 1/2; 127
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 10; 123
Dunkel Pick North Dakota State (+10); Over

Game 657-658: Western Illinois at Oregon State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 55.132; Oregon State 61.131
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 6; 133
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 11 1/2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick Western Illinois (+11 1/2); Over

Game 661-662: Buffalo at American (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 58.293; American 52.968
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 2 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick Buffalo (-2 1/2); Under

Game 663-664: North Dakota at Drake (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 47.752; Drake 58.422
Dunkel Line: Drake by 10 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: Drake by 13 1/2; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick North Dakota (+13 1/2); Under

Game 665-666: Rice at UL-Lafayette (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 57.151; UL-Lafayette 51.573
Dunkel Line: Rice by 6 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Rice by 1; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick Rice (-1); Over

Game 667-668: UC-Santa Barbara at Idaho (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Santa Barbara 60.561; Idaho 57.452
Dunkel Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 3; 133
Vegas Line: UC-Santa Barbara by 1; 136
Dunkel Pick UC-Santa Barbara (-1); Under

Game 669-670: CS-Bakersfield at Utah State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Bakersfield 48.230; Utah State 56.569
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 8 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Utah State by 11; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick CS-Bakersfield (+11); Over

Game 671-672: CS-Fullerton at Loyola Marymount (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Fullerton 54.496; Loyola Marymount 58.033
Dunkel Line: Loyola Marymount by 4; 152
Vegas Line: Loyola Marymount by 7; 147
Dunkel Pick CS-Fullerton (+7); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
03/14/2012 06:30 PM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 14

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LAMAR (23 - 11) vs. VERMONT (23 - 11) - 3/14/2012, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VERMONT is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
LAMAR is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.
LAMAR is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
LAMAR is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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S FLORIDA (20 - 13) vs. CALIFORNIA (24 - 9) - 3/14/2012, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 39-24 ATS (+12.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CALIFORNIA is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
S FLORIDA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) on Wednesday games this season.
CALIFORNIA is 21-43 ATS (-26.3 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
CALIFORNIA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
CALIFORNIA is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Thursday, March 15

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SOUTHERN MISS (25 - 8) vs. KANSAS ST (21 - 10) - 3/15/2012, 12:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SOUTHERN MISS is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
KANSAS ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LOYOLA-MD (24 - 8) vs. OHIO ST (27 - 7) - 3/15/2012, 9:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 186-146 ATS (+25.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
OHIO ST is 119-88 ATS (+22.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
LOYOLA-MD is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
LOYOLA-MD is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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W VIRGINIA (19 - 13) vs. GONZAGA (25 - 6) - 3/15/2012, 7:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GONZAGA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against Big East conference opponents since 1997.
W VIRGINIA is 94-65 ATS (+22.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
W VIRGINIA is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
GONZAGA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONNECTICUT (20 - 13) vs. IOWA ST (22 - 10) - 3/15/2012, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games this season.
IOWA ST is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
IOWA ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
IOWA ST is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CONNECTICUT is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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COLORADO ST (20 - 11) vs. MURRAY ST (30 - 1) - 3/15/2012, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MURRAY ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
MURRAY ST is 56-87 ATS (-39.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

S DAKOTA ST (27 - 7) vs. BAYLOR (27 - 7) - 3/15/2012, 7:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S DAKOTA ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games this season.
S DAKOTA ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games this season.
BAYLOR is 19-30 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 19-30 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLORADO (23 - 11) vs. UNLV (26 - 8) - 3/15/2012, 9:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNLV is 26-37 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UNLV is 26-37 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UNLV is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
UNLV is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HARVARD (26 - 4) vs. VANDERBILT (24 - 10) - 3/15/2012, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
HARVARD is 79-109 ATS (-40.9 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
HARVARD is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
VANDERBILT is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
VANDERBILT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VANDERBILT is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VANDERBILT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.
VANDERBILT is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
VANDERBILT is 48-76 ATS (-35.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MONTANA (25 - 6) vs. WISCONSIN (24 - 9) - 3/15/2012, 2:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
MONTANA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
MONTANA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VA COMMONWEALTH (28 - 6) vs. WICHITA ST (27 - 5) - 3/15/2012, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
VA COMMONWEALTH is 1-0 against the spread versus WICHITA ST over the last 3 seasons
VA COMMONWEALTH is 1-0 straight up against WICHITA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW MEXICO ST (26 - 9) vs. INDIANA (25 - 8) - 3/15/2012, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
INDIANA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games this season.
NEW MEXICO ST is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in March games since 1997.
NEW MEXICO ST is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LONG BEACH ST (25 - 8) vs. NEW MEXICO (27 - 6) - 3/15/2012, 4:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW MEXICO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
NEW MEXICO is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
NEW MEXICO is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
NEW MEXICO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAVIDSON (25 - 7) vs. LOUISVILLE (26 - 9) - 3/15/2012, 1:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DAVIDSON is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
DAVIDSON is 103-74 ATS (+21.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
DAVIDSON is 65-34 ATS (+27.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KENT ST (21 - 11) at USC UPSTATE (20 - 12) - 3/15/2012, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
03/14/2012 06:32 PM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 14

Wednesday's Play-in NCAA games
Lamar-Vermont both have coaches in first year at their school; Lamar is one of most experienced teams in country- they were #3 Southland seed, Vermont was #2 in its league, and won true road game to get automatic bid. Southland teams are 2-9 in tournament last nine years, with UTSA winning play-in game LY, its only previous appearance in game. This is first play-in game for America East, which is 1-9 in NCAAs over last nine years, with lone win Vermont's win over Syracuse in '06. Cardinals have five seniors in their rotation; four of top six Vermont players are freshman/sophs. Lamar plays the #121 pace, Vermont #282.

Pac-12 gets killed in media, but since 2007, their teams are 17-7 in first round games (10-2 last three years); Cal Bears won last 16 games when they allowed less than 70 points- they've lost three of last four games, a red flag. South Florida plays great defense, hideous offense; they're very relieved to be here, after being one of last teams announced Sunday nite. Bulls scored less than 60 points in last seven games, splitting their last six. USF turns ball over 22.9% of time, shoot 31% from arc, play #342 pace, so they play ugly games. Three of Cal's top five guys are freshmen or sophs. Three of USF's top six guys are seniors.

Other three tournaments
Short notes on the games in the other tournaments, where motivation is a great x-factor.

Manhattan @ Albany-- MAAC road teams are 4-8 vs spread when line is 3 or less points. Albany split pair with MAAC teams this year, with win over Rider by 9, losing at Siena by 4.

Yale @ Fairfield-- Yale lost its last three road games, by 15-7-21 points. MAAC home favorites are 5-8 against the spread.

Bowling Green @ Oakland-- MAC road underdogs of 6 or less points are 7-10 against spread. Oakland is 0-2 vs MAC teams this year, losing by by 2 to Ohio, by 15 to Western Michigan.

Minnesota @ LaSalle-- Atlantic 14 home favorites of less than 6 points are 11-6 vs spread. Big Dozen road underdogs of 6 or less are 7-3.

Central Florida @ Drexel-- Dragons are one team that feels they should be in NCAAs; CAA home favorites of 7 or less points are 7-8. UCF lost its last four road games, by 4-9-29-31 points.

Northern Iowa @ St Joe's-- MVC road underdogs of 7 or less points are 13-10. A-14 home favorites of 7 or less points are 14-7 vs spread.

Valparaiso @ Miami-- Valpo lost its conference final on its home court; one of its big men was hampered by leg injury. ACC double digit home favorites are 18-16 vs spread.

Bucknell @ Arizona-- Bucknell lost final of its conference tournament on their home court. Arizona lost finals of Pac-12 tourney by a basket. Pac-12 teams were 4-0 vs spread in games played last night.

Nevada @ Oral Roberts-- ORU had won 20 of last 21 games before they got upset in semis of Summit League tourney. WAC road underdogs of 7 or less points are 9-6 vs spread.

Illinois State @ Ole Miss-- Redbirds lost in MVC finals, after upetting Wichita State in semis. SEC single digit home favorites are 9-8 vs spread.

Wofford @ Pitt-- SoCon road underdogs of 10-21 points are 12-19 vs spread this season. Panthers had their worst season in over a decade-- they went 6-15 in their last 21 games.

Quinnipiac @ Penn-- Quakers lost on last day of Ivy League season; it kept them from having playoff game with Harvard. Quinnipiac is #1 offensive rebounding team in country- they beat Yale by 6, in only game against an Ivy League team this season.

Delaware @ Butler-- CAA single digit road underdogs are 9-19 against the spread. Have to question Butler's will to be here after playing for a national title in each of the last two seasons.

North Dakota State @ Wyoming-- MWC home favorites of 7+ points are 17-10 against the spread. Bison lost nine of their last 13 games.

Western Illinois @ Oregon State-- Leathernecks lost Summit League final in OT; they play tough defense, while Oregon State wants to run. Pac 12 double digit home favorites are 17-21 against the spread.

Buffalo @ American-- MAC road teams are 8-13 vs spread if number is 4 or less points. Buffalo's last three games were won by 3 or less points.

North Dakota @ Drake-- Bulldogs went 5-8 in their last 13 games; they shoot only 64.7% from foul line. MVC double digit home favorites are 7-7 vs spread.

Rice @ UL-Lafayette-- Underdogs are 13-6 in C-USA road games when spread is 3 or less points. Ragin' Cajuns beat Central Florida 61-60 in their only game against a C-USA team this season.

UCSB @ Idaho-- Gauchos lost Big West final late Saturday night, now have long road trip up to Idaho, where its probably little colder than Santa Barbara. WAC home teams are 6-10 vs spread if number is 5 or less points.

CS-Bakersfield @ Utah State-- WAC double digit home favorites out of conference are 8-0 against the spread. Bakersfield is 0-5 vs WAC teams this seasonl with three of the five losses by 13+ points.

Fullerton @ LMU-- Titans handed Long Beach its only conference loss, then got upset by UC-Irvine in first round of Big West tourney, just as LMU did in WCC tournament, losing to San Francisco. Fullerton makes 40.4% behind arc; they've won eight of their last ten games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
03/14/2012 06:33 PM

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 14

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. LA SALLE
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
La Salle is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
La Salle is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home

7:00 PM
WOFFORD vs. PITTSBURGH
Wofford is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Wofford's last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
BOWLING GREEN vs. OAKLAND
Bowling Green is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Bowling Green's last 7 games on the road
No trends available

7:00 PM
YALE vs. FAIRFIELD
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Yale's last 5 games on the road
Yale is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Fairfield's last 5 games at home
Fairfield is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home

7:00 PM
MANHATTAN vs. ALBANY
Manhattan is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Manhattan's last 5 games on the road
No trends available

7:15 PM
CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. DREXEL
Central Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Central Florida is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Drexel's last 6 games
Drexel is 19-1 SU in its last 20 games

7:15 PM
NORTHERN IOWA vs. SAINT JOSEPH'S
Northern Iowa is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Northern Iowa is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Saint Joseph's last 7 games
Saint Joseph's is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home

7:30 PM
QUINNIPIAC vs. PENNSYLVANIA
No trends available
Pennsylvania is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Pennsylvania is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:30 PM
BUFFALO vs. AMERICAN
Buffalo is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
No trends available

7:30 PM
VALPARAISO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Valparaiso's last 5 games on the road
Valparaiso is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 12 games at home

8:00 PM
NORTH DAKOTA vs. DRAKE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Drake's last 10 games
Drake is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home

8:00 PM
DELAWARE vs. BUTLER
Delaware is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Delaware's last 6 games on the road
Butler is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Butler's last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
RICE vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
Rice is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Louisiana-Lafayette is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Louisiana-Lafayette's last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
BUCKNELL vs. ARIZONA
No trends available
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Arizona is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games

9:00 PM
NORTH DAKOTA STATE vs. WYOMING
No trends available
Wyoming is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home
Wyoming is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games

9:00 PM
SOUTH FLORIDA vs. CALIFORNIA
No trends available
California is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of California's last 6 games

9:00 PM
CS BAKERSFIELD vs. UTAH STATE
No trends available
Utah State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing CS Bakersfield
Utah State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

9:15 PM
NEVADA vs. ORAL ROBERTS
Nevada is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nevada's last 5 games on the road
No trends available

9:30 PM
ILLINOIS STATE vs. MISSISSIPPI
Illinois State is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Illinois State is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Mississippi's last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Mississippi's last 9 games

10:00 PM
WESTERN ILLINOIS vs. OREGON STATE
No trends available
Oregon State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Oregon State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

10:00 PM
SANTA BARBARA vs. IDAHO
Santa Barbara is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Idaho
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Santa Barbara's last 6 games on the road
Idaho is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Santa Barbara
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Idaho's last 6 games

10:00 PM
CS FULLERTON vs. LOYOLA MARYMOUNT
CS Fullerton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
CS Fullerton is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Loyola Marymount is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Loyola Marymount is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
03/14/2012 06:35 PM

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 14

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NCAA preview & pick: Vermont vs. Lamar
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Vermont Catamounts vs. Lamar Cardinals (-3, 129)

THE STORY: Pat Knight never reached the NCAA tournament while coaching at Texas Tech but the son of legendary Bobby Knight led the Cardinals into the Big Dance with a rout of McNeese State over the weekend. The younger Knight ripped his team’s seniors a couple of weeks ago and then watched them roll through the Southland Conference Tournament to earn a spot in the NCAA for the first time since 2000. There they’ll play America East perennial power Vermont (which shocked Syracuse as the 13-seed in 2005 for its only NCAA tournament victory) in a battle of 16-seeds in a first-round game at Dayton, Ohio on Wednesday. The Catamounts have reached the NCAA tournament five times. The winner plays No. 1 seed North Carolina on Friday.

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, truTV. LINE: Lamar -3

ABOUT LAMAR (23-11): The Cardinals won their conference championship as the third seed but may have caught a break as their opponent in the final, McNeese State, knocked off the No. 1 seed Texas-Arlington. Still, Lamar avenged a 12-point regular-season loss to win the finale in convincing fashion getting 26 points from Mike James. Knight drew national headlines when he said his seniors were “stealing money by being on scholarship.” After they won the Southland title his critics called it brilliant motivation for the high-scoring Cardinals who average nearly 74 points per game.

ABOUT VERMONT (23-11): The Catamounts needed two overtimes to survive a semifinal round in the America East tournament against lowly Hartford which started the season at 0-13. First-year coach John Becker then preached defense in its conference title game matchup with Stony Brook and the Catamounts responded with a 51-43 victory despite scoring just five points in the final 10 minutes of the game. Becker’s squad displayed a ton of poise becoming just the fourth team in the tourney’s history to win the championship on the road and it did so in front of a raucous sold-out crowd of over 4,200. Vermont’s last NCAA appearance was in 2010 and all of its bids have been since 2003. They’ve won 14 of their last 15 games overall.

TRENDS:

- Lamar is 5-1 against the spread in its last six.
- The over is 10-2 in Vermont's last 12 non-conference games.
- Vermont is 2-5 against the spread in its last seven as an underdog.

PICK: Lamar

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
03/14/2012 06:36 PM

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 14

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NCAA preview & pick: South Florida vs. California
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South Florida Bulls vs. California Golden Bears (-3, 115)

THE STORY: A pair of teams squarely on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday will meet in a first-round contest Wednesday night at Dayton, Ohio. California was the lone at-large selection from the Pac-12 Conference and now hopes to run the ball against defensive-minded South Florida in a matchup of contrasting styles. The Bulls apparently punched their ticket to the dance with a solid two-game run in the Big East tournament and will be making their first appearance in the NCAA tourney since 1992. The winner of the battle of 12-seeds advances to Nashville to face No. 5 Temple on Friday.

TV: 9:10 p.m. ET, truTV. LINE: California -3

ABOUT CALIFORNIA (24-9): Cal’s loss to eventual Pac-12 tournament champion Colorado made for some anxious moments for the Bears which were viewed as the conference’s top team throughout the regular season but faded down the stretch. Cal finished second to Washington (which did not get an NCAA bid) in the regular season at 13-5 and is led by Pac-12 Player of the Year Jorge Gutierrez, a fearless competitor who admitted he succumbed to pressure late in the year. Cal isn’t deep but its starting five is formidable. The Bears have reached the NCAA three of the past four years and need a strong game from sharp-shooter Allen Crabbe who buried 81 3-pointers this season. The Bears, however, limp into the tourney losers of three of their last four games.

ABOUT SOUTH FLORIDA (20-13): The Bulls finished 12-6 in the Big East to earn a first-round bye in the conference tourney and then posted a much-needed win over Villanova in their first game at MSG. South Florida nearly reached the final falling to Notre Dame in overtime in the semifinals after it blew a lead late in the game. South Florida averages just 59 ppg (Cal scores 71.7) and USF doesn’t have a single player averaging in double figures. The Bulls are 0-2 all-time in NCAA play. South Florida has won seven of its last 10 games but was 1-6 against teams who were ranked in the top 25 at the time of those meetings.

TRENDS:

- The under is 9-1 in California's last 10 neutral-site games.
- South Florida is 7-3 against the spread in its last 10.
- The under is 22-6 in South Florida's last 28.

PICK: Bulls

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: