cnotes Posts:27576 Followers:33
03/15/2012 10:36 AM

UConn Battles Cyclones In Louisville Nightcap

Beware the Ides of March, which apparently came two days early for both the Iona Gaels and Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils.

Two amazing finishes in Tuesday's First Four battles filled in Thursday's matchups in the Louisville pod. Brigham Young rallied from a huge first-half hole vs. a Jekyll & Hyde Iona squad to post a 78-72 win over the Gaels. The Cougars' performance came on the heels of Western Kentucky nipping MVSU 59-58 after the Hilltoppers trailed by 16 with under five minutes to play.

Western Kentucky, the only team with a losing record in this year's NCAA Tournament, now draws overall No. 1 seed Kentucky in an all-Bluegrass State affair on Thursday, one of the South Regional contests being played in Louisville. Brigham Young will next take on Marquette, one of the West bracket contests at KFC Yum! Center.

Here's a quick glance at Thursday's Louisville pod; spreads and totals listed per the Don Best Odds screen around lunchtime on Wednesday.

(6) Murray State vs. (11) Colorado State
TIP-OFF: 12:15 p.m. (ET) CBS
SPREAD: Murray State -4
TOTAL: 135½
PREVIEW: One of three teams from Kentucky in this pod, Murray State should have a huge crowd on hand Thursday to back the Racers. Steve Prohm's kids enter play looking to add to their fantastic 30-1 mark to this point (14-11-2 against the spread), but could get caught looking ahead and past a very dangerous Colorado State squad.

The Rams made some noise in the Mountain West down the stretch with home wins over both New Mexico and UNLV, but succumbed twice to San Diego State over the final two weeks to finish fourth in the 8-team conference. The second defeat vs. the Aztecs came in the MWC semifinals last Friday.

One injury update finds CSU's Greg Smith questionable for the game with an ankle injury. Smith is third on the Rams in scoring (9.7 PPG) and second in rebounding (5.3 RPG).

(3) Marquette vs. (14) Brigham Young
TIP-OFF: 2:45 p.m. (ET) CBS
SPREAD: Marquette -5
TOTAL: N/A
PREVIEW: The Cougars will definitely be feeling their oats going into Thursday's matchup, but Dave Rose's club will also find it far more difficult to dig out of a hole against Marquette than it was with Iona. Brigham Young's win did stop a 4-game ATS slide and marked the sixth consecutive Cougars game to finish 'under' the total.

Buzz Williams' Golden Eagles are going to be eager to rebound from a one-&-done appearance in the Big East Tournament. Marquette begins play Thursday riding a recent 6-2 ATS string with seven of its last nine going 'over' the total.

(1) Kentucky vs. (16) Western Kentucky
TIP-OFF: 6:50 p.m. (ET) TBS
SPREAD: Kentucky -24
TOTAL: N/A
PREVIEW: It's been a great run by Ray Harper and Western Kentucky, but it all comes to an end on Thursday. The Hilltoppers managed just 37 points during the first 35 minutes vs. Mississippi Valley State on Tuesday before the amazing 22-5 run to close the game. Kentucky's defense might keep WKU from reaching 37 points for the entire 40 minutes on Thursday.

The Wildcats ended the campaign in a bit of an ATS rut, covering just two of their final eight games. The Hilltoppers didn't get the cover in Tuesday's games, but remain a solid 13-3 ATS in their last 16, making those two dozen points look very tempting.

Western Kentucky upset the Wildcats in Lexington way back in 2001, the last time the two schools met on the hardwood. The Hilltoppers were getting 13 from the oddsmakers and walloped UK, 64-52.

(8) Iowa State vs. (9) Connecticut
TIP-OFF: 9:20 p.m. (ET) TBS
SPREAD: UConn -1½
TOTAL: 136
PREVIEW: One of the second round's most intriguing clashes finds last year's champions facing one of the biggest surprises this year.

Connecticut seems to have righted its ship after a 3-9 span from mid-January through February (3-8-1 ATS). The Huskies closed with five covers over the last six games and came close to an outright win as 7-point 'dogs in the Big East quarterfinals vs. Syracuse.

Iowa State (22-10 SU, 18-9 ATS) was picked to finish in the second division of the Big 12, only to tie Baylor for third place during the regular season. The Cyclones were just 6-8 outside of Ames this campaign, but a respectable 9-4-1 ATS.

ALBUQUERQUE - PITTSBURGH - PORTLAND

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27576 Followers:33
03/15/2012 10:38 AM

Gonzaga faces WVU Thursday in Pittsburgh

10 seed WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (19-13)

vs. 7 seed GONZAGA BULLDOGS (25-6)


NCAA Tournament - Second Round
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:20 p.m. EDT – Pittsburgh, PA
Line: Even

Gonzaga makes the long flight to Pittsburgh to face a team that is very familiar with the Steel City, the West Virginia Mountaineers.

As the spread would indicate, these are two very evenly matched basketball teams. But over the past five games, Gonzaga has looked to be the superior team, scoring 76.4 PPG on 48% FG, while WVU is scoring a pathetic 62.6 PPG on 37% FG. Defensively, the Bulldogs have limited these past five opponents to 63.2 PPG on 38.5% FG, while WVU has allowed its opponents to shoot at a 48% clip in this same time frame. But the Mountaineers will have more a virtual home game playing so close to campus. Which team will prevail on Thursday night? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

West Virginia should have five or six more victories this year, but it just can’t win close games, as six of its past seven losses have been by six points or less. The offense has been brutal in the past two games in particular, scoring 58.5 PPG on just 32.5% FG. The Mountaineers revolve around Kevin Jones who led the Big East in both scoring (20.1 PPG) and rebounding (11.1 PPG) this season. Jones has been relying on his jumper a bit too much lately, going 4-of-24 from three-point land in his past six contests, including 1-of-8 in the Big East quarterfinal loss to UConn. Jones has scored at least 12 points in every game this season, and is averaging 21.7 PPG and 12.3 RPG in his past three contests. WVU has another dynamic scorer in Darryl “Truck” Bryant (17.2 PPG) whose poor decision-making down the stretch has certainly cost his team dearly. For the season, he has 89 assists and 78 turnovers, which is not the ratio you want from the guy handling the ball so much. He’s had a total of just five assists in his past four games. But the talented senior guard has done a great job driving the lane and getting to the free-throw stripe, going 34-of-41 FT (83%) in his past three contests. Another key to this team is keeping junior C Deniz Kilici (10.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG) on the court. He fouled out of the UConn loss, marking his eighth straight game of 3+ fouls. He has scored just 6.4 PPG on 36.6% FG in his past five contests. This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Mountaineers:

WEST VIRGINIA is 23-6 ATS (+16.4 Units) in a post-season tournament game since 1997. The average score was WEST VIRGINIA 71.9, OPPONENT 67.9 - (Rating = 3*).

The Zags were once the Cinderella darlings of the NCAA Tournament, but they have not enjoyed much success as a greater seed, going 4-8 ATS in this role since 1999. They are 4-10 ATS (29%) in the NCAAs since 2005. Gonzaga has also struggled outside of Spokane this season, going 4-9 ATS in non-home games. But the Bulldogs are a well-rounded team with an ever-improving freshman backcourt of Kevin Pangos (13.8 PPG) and Gary Bell Jr. (10.0 PPG). They also have big bodies in the paint with 7-footer Robert Sacre (11.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG) and athletic 6-foot-7 junior Elias Harris (13.1 PPG, 8.7 RPG) who can score from anywhere. Harris is also an able defender and will probably be matched up on WVU’s star Kevin Jones. The Zags are so tough to guard because they shoot very well from downtown (38% 3-pt FG) with three marksmen shooting over 40% from behind the three-point arc in Bell Jr. (47.4%), Pangos (40.5%) and Harris (40.3%). This three-star FoxSheets coaching trend also likes Gonzaga to prevail.

Bob Huggins is 3-14 ATS (17.6%, -12.4 Units) in road games vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents after 15+ games as the coach of WEST VIRGINIA. The average score was WEST VIRGINIA 63.6, OPPONENT 70.6 - (Rating = 3*)

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27576 Followers:33
03/15/2012 10:39 AM

VCU takes on Wichita State Thursday

12 seed VCU RAMS (28-6)

vs. 5 seed WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS (27-5)


NCAA Tournament - Second Round
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:15 p.m. EDT – Portland, OR
Line: Wichita State -5½

VCU tries to make another long run in the NCAA Tournament, which starts with a matchup against a tough Wichita State team on Thursday night in Portland.

The Rams are catching fire in March again as they have won 17 of their past 18 contests, including a three-game run through the Colonial Athletic Association to begin the month. The Shockers are also hot, going 19-2 since the 2012 calendar year began. But instead of winning the Missouri Valley as the conference’s top seed, WSU was stunned by 12-point underdog Illinois State in the MVC semifinals. Can VCU make another deep run in the NCAA Tournament? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

VCU allows a mere 59.8 PPG on 42.3% FG this season, which helps to compensate for an offense that shoots very poorly (41.0% FG, 33.7% 3-pt FG). Senior swingman Bradford Burgess is the leading scorer (13.3 PPG), but he has shot terribly all season at 36.4% FG. He was a key part to the Rams success in last year’s NCAAs, averaging 15.7 PPG and 7.0 RPG in the six games. Sophomore F Juvonte Reddic (10.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG) was scoring 13.6 PPG during a five-game stretch, but was held to four points on 2-of-5 FG in the win over Drexel in the CAA Championship game. But the main reason that VCU was able to beat the Dragons was due to the play of junior G Darius Theus (8.6 PPG), who lit them up for 16 points, five assists and five steals. This three-star FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the Rams:

Shaka Smart is 27-9 ATS (75.0%, +17.1 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games as the coach of VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH. The average score was VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH 70.8, OPPONENT 63.5 - (Rating = 3*).

Unlike VCU, Wichita State can score in bunches (77.7 PPG, 15th in nation) because it is a tremendous shooting team from all spots on the floor, making 48.5% FG (13th in nation), 37.3% threes and 75.1% free throws. Despite the gaudy numbers, Illinois State held the Shockers to 34.9% FG in their season-ending loss. Senior G Joe Ragland (13.4 PPG, 3.4 APG) had a game-high 17 points (5-of-9 FG) as the only starter that shot better than 50% from the floor. Senior C Garrett Stutz leads WSU in points and rebounds (13.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG), but is coming off a foul-plagued MWC Tournament. He scored just 6.0 PPG on 6-of-13 FG in his 19.5 MPG. This strong FoxSheets trend also likes the Shockers to win and cover.

WICHITA STATE is 9-1 ATS (90.0%, +7.9 Units) in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was WICHITA STATE 74.2, OPPONENT 60.8 - (Rating = 2*).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27576 Followers:33
03/15/2012 10:41 AM

UConn opens 2012 NCAAs versus Iowa St.


9 seed CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (20-13)

vs. 8 seed IOWA STATE CYCLONES (22-10)


NCAA Tournament - Second Round
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT – Louisville, KY
Line: Connecticut -2½

The defending national champions begin their quest for repeat title on Thursday night when Connecticut meets Iowa State in a Second Round NCAA matchup in Louisville.

Both teams have played pretty well down the stretch. UConn is 5-1-1 ATS in its past seven games, nearly beating Syracuse twice, losing by just two points and three points to the Orange. Iowa State has beaten both Kansas and Baylor during a strong season-ending, 12-game run (8-4 SU, 9-2-1 ATS). Can the underdog Cyclones pull out the victory on Thursday night? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

Hall-of-Famer Jim Calhoun is an impressive 16-1 in NCAA Tournament openers as UConn’s head coach. His team's offense has been erratic this season, but the Huskies usually are tough defensively. They allow just 64.1 PPG on 38.4% FG, blocking 6.9 shots per game. Sophomore F/G Jeremy Lamb (17.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG) is the top scorer, but he needs to be more assertive in the offense. He did not score in the second half of the team’s last game against Syracuse, but he came up big last March with 16.2 PPG on 58% FG in the NCAA Tournament. You never know what to expect from PG Shabazz Napier (12.7 PPG, 5.8 APG) who has attempted 3, 4, 18, 2, 18 and 17 shots in his past six games. Napier shot very poorly in the 2011 NCAAs, scoring just 5.0 PPG on 28.6% FG. The talented freshman Drummond is coming off a strong performance against Syracuse, producing 14 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks. This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Huskies:

CONNECTICUT is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CONNECTICUT 68.5, OPPONENT 59.1 - (Rating = 3*).

Iowa State is an excellent three-point shooting team, making 8.9 threes per game on a healthy 38% clip. Scott Christopherson (12.5 PPG) is the marksman at 45% and he has been on a roll with 19.8 PPG in his past six games. But the heart and soul of the Cyclones is sophomore F Royce White who leads the team in points (13.1 PPG), rebounds (9.2 RPG), assists (5.1 APG), steals (1.2 SPG) and blocks (0.9 BPG). He’s averaging 16.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG and 5.7 APG in his past three games. White’s one weakness is foul shooting, as he shoots a dreadful 49% from the line. Senior G Chris Allen is the team’s third double-digit scorer (11.8 PPG), but he is in a shooting slump over his past four games, making just 31% FG. This strong FoxSheets trend also likes the Cyclones to emerge victorious.

Play Against - Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick (CONNECTICUT) - after scoring 55 points or less, with four starters returning from last season. (45-19 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.3%, +24.1 units. Rating = 2*).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27576 Followers:33
03/15/2012 10:43 AM

Colorado tries to keep rolling against UNLV

11 seed COLORADO BUFFALOES (23-11)

vs. 6 seed UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS (27-5)


NCAA Tournament - Second Round
Tip-off: Thursday, 9:55 p.m. EDT – Albuquerque, NM
Line: UNLV -5

After a shocking four wins in four days in the Pac-12 Tournament, Colorado moves onto the NCAAs where sixth-seeded UNLV awaits.

The Buffaloes averaged only 59.8 PPG in their four conference tourney wins, but held all four opponents below 43% FG. Colorado is playing well, but this is the same team that got blown out by 14+ points in five separate Pac-12 games. The high-flying Rebels average 76.7 PPG (24th in nation) and have beaten great teams. But they are also 3-11 ATS in non-home games this year. Can Colorado keep its win streak alive? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Three at Three Pass for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

Colorado took great care of the basketball during its Pac-12 run, with less than 10 turnovers in each of the four contests. It also received huge performances from sophomore F Andre Roberson (11.6 PPG, 11.1 RPG), who was one rebound shy of posting double-doubles in all four games, averaging 14.8 PPG and 10.3 RPG. Senior G Carlon Brown leads the Buffs in scoring (12.6 PPG) and has six straight games of 13+ points. This includes his 15.8 PPG in the four-game Pac-12 tourney run. This team doesn’t shoot particularly well from behind the arc (34.3%), but freshman G Spencer Dinwiddie is deadly from downtown, making 44% of his threes this season, including 4-of-4 in the Pac-12 Championship win over Arizona. This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Buffs:

UNLV is 1-9 ATS (10.0%, -8.9 Units) in road games after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. The average score was UNLV 72.3, OPPONENT 69.6 - (Rating = 3*).

The Rebels are a team that can play with anybody, beating North Carolina earlier in the year. PF Mike Moser averages a double-double (14.1 PPG, 10.6 RPG) and SF Chace Stanback (12.7 PPG) has the ability to take over games with a 46.4% accuracy rate from three-point range and 15 games of at least 15 points this year. Feeding these two frontcourt players is the guard tandem of Oscar Bellfield (5.3 APG, 9.8 PPG) and Anthony Marshall (12.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.5 SPG) who can dominate a game in many different ways. Marshall kept his team in the game in its MWC tourney loss to New Mexico, scoring 19 points, while Bellfield had 13 points, six assists and just one turnover. This strong FoxSheets trend also likes the Rebels to win and cover.

UNLV is 61-36 ATS (62.9%, +21.4 Units) after playing 2 consecutive home games since 1997. The average score was UNLV 73.9, OPPONENT 68.8 - (Rating = 1*).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27576 Followers:33
03/15/2012 10:47 AM

NCAAB
Dunkel

Harvard vs. Vanderbilt
The Crimson look to build on their 3-1-1 ATS record in their last 5 neutral site games. Harvard is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Vanderbilt favored by only 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's picks and all the second round picks of the NCAA Tournament.

THURSDAY, MARCH 15

Game 711-712: NC-Asheville vs. Syracuse (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Asheville 55.517; Syracuse 75.317
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 20; 149
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 17; 145
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (-17); Over

Game 713-714: Southern Mississippi vs. Kansas State (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 61.728; Kansas State 65.976
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 4; 131
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 6; 134
Dunkel Pick Southern Mississippi (+6); Under

Game 715-716: Loyola-MD vs. Ohio State (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-MD 55.301; Ohio State 75.077
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 20; 133
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 17; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-17); Over

Game 717-718: West Virginia vs. Gonzaga (7:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 65.288; Gonzaga 67.359
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 2; 128
Vegas Line: Pick; 132
Dunkel Pick Gonzaga; Under

Game 721-722: Connecticut vs. Iowa State (6:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 69.775; Iowa State 66.363
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 3 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 2; 135
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-2); Over

Game 725-726: Colorado State vs. Murray State (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 60.114; Murray State 65.800
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 5 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Murray State by 3 1/2; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick Murray State (-3 1/2); Under

Game 727-728: South Dakota State vs. Baylor (7:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 63.571; Baylor 73.219
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 9 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Baylor by 7 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-7 1/2); Under

Game 729-730: Colorado vs. UNLV (9:55 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 63.332; UNLV 65.414
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 2; 138
Vegas Line: UNLV by 4 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick Colorado (+4 1/2); Over

Game 731-732: Harvard vs. Vanderbilt (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 63.648; Vanderbilt 67.333
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 3 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 6 1/2; 123
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+6 1/2); Over

Game 733-734: Montana vs. Wisconsin (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 61.622; Wisconsin 72.074
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 10 1/2; 115
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 9; 117 1/2
Dunkel Pick Wisconsin (-9); Under

Game 735-736: VCU vs. Wichita State (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 62.838; Wichita State 71.905
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 9; 138
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 6; 134
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-6); Over

Game 737-738: New Mexico State vs. Indiana (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 65.386; Indiana 70.034
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 4 1/2; 148
Vegas Line: Indiana by 6; 152
Dunkel Pick New Mexico State (+6); Under

Game 739-740: Long Beach State vs. New Mexico (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 65.428; New Mexico 68.484
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 3; 139
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 4 1/2; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+4 1/2); Over

Game 741-742: Davidson vs. Louisville (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 60.947; Louisville 70.027
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 9; 135
Vegas Line: Louisville by 7; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick Louisville (-7); Under

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27576 Followers:33
03/15/2012 10:49 AM

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 15

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SOUTHERN MISS (25 - 8) vs. KANSAS ST (21 - 10) - 3/15/2012, 12:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SOUTHERN MISS is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
KANSAS ST is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LOYOLA-MD (24 - 8) vs. OHIO ST (27 - 7) - 3/15/2012, 9:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 186-146 ATS (+25.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
OHIO ST is 119-88 ATS (+22.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
LOYOLA-MD is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
LOYOLA-MD is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
LOYOLA-MD is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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W VIRGINIA (19 - 13) vs. GONZAGA (25 - 6) - 3/15/2012, 7:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GONZAGA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against Big East conference opponents since 1997.
W VIRGINIA is 94-65 ATS (+22.5 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
W VIRGINIA is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
GONZAGA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CONNECTICUT (20 - 13) vs. IOWA ST (22 - 10) - 3/15/2012, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
IOWA ST is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games this season.
IOWA ST is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
IOWA ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
IOWA ST is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CONNECTICUT is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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COLORADO ST (20 - 11) vs. MURRAY ST (30 - 1) - 3/15/2012, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MURRAY ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
MURRAY ST is 56-87 ATS (-39.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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S DAKOTA ST (27 - 7) vs. BAYLOR (27 - 7) - 3/15/2012, 7:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
S DAKOTA ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games this season.
S DAKOTA ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games this season.
BAYLOR is 19-30 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 19-30 ATS (-14.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
BAYLOR is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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COLORADO (23 - 11) vs. UNLV (26 - 8) - 3/15/2012, 9:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNLV is 26-37 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UNLV is 26-37 ATS (-14.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UNLV is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
UNLV is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HARVARD (26 - 4) vs. VANDERBILT (24 - 10) - 3/15/2012, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
HARVARD is 79-109 ATS (-40.9 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
HARVARD is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
VANDERBILT is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after a conference game this season.
VANDERBILT is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VANDERBILT is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VANDERBILT is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.
VANDERBILT is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
VANDERBILT is 48-76 ATS (-35.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MONTANA (25 - 6) vs. WISCONSIN (24 - 9) - 3/15/2012, 2:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WISCONSIN is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
MONTANA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
MONTANA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VA COMMONWEALTH (28 - 6) vs. WICHITA ST (27 - 5) - 3/15/2012, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
VA COMMONWEALTH is 1-0 against the spread versus WICHITA ST over the last 3 seasons
VA COMMONWEALTH is 1-0 straight up against WICHITA ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW MEXICO ST (26 - 9) vs. INDIANA (25 - 8) - 3/15/2012, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
INDIANA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in non-conference games this season.
NEW MEXICO ST is 29-13 ATS (+14.7 Units) in March games since 1997.
NEW MEXICO ST is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LONG BEACH ST (25 - 8) vs. NEW MEXICO (27 - 6) - 3/15/2012, 4:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW MEXICO is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 23-7 ATS (+15.3 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 22-6 ATS (+15.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW MEXICO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after a conference game this season.
NEW MEXICO is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in non-conference games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
NEW MEXICO is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
NEW MEXICO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAVIDSON (25 - 7) vs. LOUISVILLE (26 - 9) - 3/15/2012, 1:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DAVIDSON is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games after scoring 80 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
LOUISVILLE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) after allowing 80 points or more since 1997.
DAVIDSON is 103-74 ATS (+21.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
DAVIDSON is 65-34 ATS (+27.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KENT ST (21 - 11) at USC UPSTATE (20 - 12) - 3/15/2012, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27576 Followers:33
03/15/2012 10:51 AM

NCAAB
Short Sheet

NCAA Tournament Trends

Thursday, 3/15/2012

UNC-ASHEVILLE vs. SYRACUSE, 3:10 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Consol Energy Ctr. - Pittsburgh, PA
UNC-ASHEVILLE: 8-1 ATS in tournament games
SYRACUSE: 7-4 ATS in 1st Rd of NCAA Tournament

SOUTHERN MISS vs. KANSAS ST, 12:40 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Consol Energy Ctr. - Pittsburgh, PA
SOUTHERN MISS: 0-3 ATS in post-season tournaments
KANSAS ST: 3-0 ATS in 1st Round of NCAA Tournament

LOYOLA-MD vs. OHIO ST, 9:50 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Consol Energy Ctr. - Pittsburgh, PA
LOYOLA-MD: 1-6 ATS in 1st rd Tournament games
OHIO ST: 10-3 ATS as double digit favorite

W VIRGINIA vs. GONZAGA, 7:20 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Consol Energy Ctr. - Pittsburgh, PA
W VIRGINIA: 17-4 ATS in NCAA Tournament
GONZAGA: 10-2 ATS vs. Big East

CONNECTICUT vs. IOWA ST, 9:20 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - KFC Center - Louisville, KY
CONNECTICUT: 17-3 ATS on neutral court
IOWA ST: 18-9 ATS this season

COLORADO ST vs. MURRAY ST, 12:15 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - KFC Center - Louisville, KY
COLORADO ST: 4-0 Over on neutral court
MURRAY ST: 5-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3.5 to 6 points

S DAKOTA ST vs. BAYLOR, 7:25 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - The Pit - Albuquerque, NM
S DAKOTA ST: 18-7 ATS this season
BAYLOR: 0-2 ATS in 1st Round NCAA Tournament games

COLORADO vs. UNLV, 9:55 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - The Pit - Albuquerque, NM
COLORADO: 2-8 ATS in postseason tournaments
UNLV: 1-5 ATS playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest

HARVARD vs. VANDERBILT, 4:40 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - The Pit - Albuquerque, NM
HARVARD: 9-22 ATS in March
VANDERBILT: 0-3 ATS off SU dog win

MONTANA vs. WISCONSIN, 2:10 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - The Pit - Albuquerque, NM
MONTANA: 4-0 ATS in 1st Rd NCAA Tournament games
WISCONSIN: 8-2 ATS vs. non-conference

VA COMMONWEALTH vs. WICHITA ST, 7:15 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Rose Garden - Portland, OR
VA COMMONWEALTH: 9-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament
WICHITA ST: 6-0 ATS as neutral court favorite of 6 pts or less

NEW MEXICO ST vs. INDIANA, 9:45 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Rose Garden - Portland, OR
NEW MEXICO ST: 25-9 Over off an Under
INDIANA: 7-0 ATS vs. non-conference

LONG BEACH ST vs.NEW MEXICO, 4:10 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Rose Garden - Portland, OR
LONG BEACH ST: 6-0 Over as underdog
NEW MEXICO: 22-6 ATS as a favorite

DAVIDSON vs. LOUISVILLE, 1:40 PM - NCAA Tournament - Second Round - Rose Garden - Portland, OR
DAVIDSON: 0-9 ATS Away after scoring 75+ BB games
LOUISVILLE: 7-0 ATS off 3 conference wins

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27576 Followers:33
03/15/2012 10:52 AM

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, March 15

Thursday's games
Day games
Murray State is 30-1, winning its last seven games since its only loss, to Tennessee State; Racers are 4-0 vs top 100 teams, winning at Memphis for its best win of year. Colorado State is lowest-rated MWC team in NCAAs since last time they made tourney, in 2003. Colorado State has four guards starting, so Murray will have chance to exploit them inside. Over last three years, dogs are 10-2 vs spread in 6-11 games. Teams have a common opponent; Rams lost to Southern Miss by 21; Murray beat USM in double OT. Both teams make over 40% behind the arc. Having game in Louisville makes this a Murray State home game.

Since 2006, Conference USA teams other than Memphis are 0-4 in this tournament; Southern Miss faded down stretch, going 3-4 in last seven games; overall, three of their last eight games went OT. Kansas State is favored by 5.5 over USM, biggest spread in 8-9 game since '87; K-State won last three first round games, by 13-20-5 points. Big X favorites are just 5-9 vs spread in first round last three years; since '03, Big X single digit first round favorites are 11-7 vs spread. USM makes only 43.3% of its 2-point shots. Over last four years, underdogs are 12-4 vs spread in 8-9 games. K-State was just 6-6 in its last twelve games.

Since 2003, teams from Southern Conference are 10-2 vs spread in this event, despite '08 Davidson being only team to win during that stretch. Louisville forces turnovers on 23.4% of possessions; Davidson protects ball well, ranking #22 in country in ball security. Over last four years, underdogs are 10-6 vs spread in 4-13 games. Last five years, team that won Big East tournament is 4-1 vs spread in its first NCAA tournament game, but Louisville is 1-5 against spread in first round last six seasons, losing to Cal/Morehead State last two years. Cardinals won four games in NYC last week after going 2-4 in last six regular season games.

Montana won its last 14 games to get here, but Big Sky teams lost their last five tournament games, with four of five losses by 18+ points; Griz only played three top 100 teams this season, losing to Colorado State by 6, Oregon State by 25, beating Long Beach by 2. Wisconsin won its last five first round games, by 13-15-2-4-14 points; they're 7-2 vs spread in last nine first round games, 5-2 when favored. Neither teams subs much but Badgers play 2nd-slowest paced games in country, so that shouldn't be factor. Only NCAA games Big Sky teams covered in last nine years were against fellow western teams, Washington/Nevada.

BYU was down 25 in first half to Iona Tuesday, won by 6, third year in row they've won tournament game, and greatest comeback in tournament history. Marquette is 2-4 vs spread in last six first round games, winning by 8-1-11 points. WCC teams are now 10-5 SU in first round/play-in games, despite being underdog in 11 of the 15 games- they're 6-5 as first round underdog. Favorites are 13-7 vs spread in 3-14 games the last five years. Since 2007, Big East teams that are 1-4 seeds are 13-8 vs spread in first round games. Very tough spot for NYU here, playing afternoon game here, after winning emotional game that ended 38 hours earlier.
Syracuse's title hopes took big blow when Fab Melo was declared out on Tuesday; Orange scored 16 ppg less in three games he missed earlier in season. #1 seeds are 8-4 vs spread in first round games last three years. Since 2004, Big East double digit favorites are 12-7 vs spread in the first round. Orange are 5-2 vs spread in last seven first round games, covering last three. NC-Asheville lost to NC State by 9, North Carolina by 16, UConn by 10, Tennessee by 4- they played #18 non-conference slate in country. Big South teams lost last three games in this round by 31-43-23 points after Winthrop pulled an upset back in 2007.

Long Beach State has junior/four seniors in starting five, their #2 scorer Anderson is expected back here after missing Big West tournament with sprained knee; 49ers lost by 4 at San Diego State in only game against a MWC team. Big West teams are 0-6 in NCAAs last six years, with all six losses by 11+ points (2-4 vs spread). New Mexico won five in row, 12 of last 14 games; they're younger and deeper than Lobos, holding foes to 30.9% behind the arc. 49ers are 18-2 in last 20 games, with losses by combined total of 5 points- they're 0-5 vs top 50 teams, with best win over #59 Xavier. Dogs are 10-6 vs spread in 5-12 games last four years.

In last four seasons, Vanderbilt has been upset in first round three times, as a 4-4-5 seed, a record of ineptitude unequalled in this tournament, so ton of pressure on veteran Vandy squad that had emotional win Sunday over Kentucky (won first SEC title since 1951). Commodores have five seniors in top five players; they make 38.9% behind arc, do Harvard will not be able to just doubleteam Azili. Since 2008, SEC first round faves are 4-9 against spread. Harvard beat LMU/Florida State in pre-season, but they struggled to win Ivy title- they don't shoot or make ton of 3's. Ivy League teams are 1-8 in this round since '03, 3-6 vs spread.

Night games
Young Western Kentucky squad (five freshmen in rotation) has won its last eight games, after rallying back from down 16 with 4:57 in play-in game Tuesday, biggest comeback in last 5:00 of any tournament game in NCAA history. That said, Hilltoppers will get crushed if they play like that against Kentucky squad that blocks 21.3% of its opponents' shots, and allows foes to make only 38.8% of 2-point shots. Wildcats figure to be focused after losing SEC title game, their first loss since Dec 10. Sun Belt teams are 7-4 vs spread as an NCAA underdog the last nine years. Kentucky is 3-4 vs spread in its last seven first round games.

VCU went to Wichita and beat Shockers 68-67 in Bracket Buster game LY, game that propelled Rams to unlikely NCAA bid/spot in Final Four, while Wichita wound up winning NIT. Underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in 5-12 games last three years; CAA teams are 15-5-1 vs spread in last 21 games as an NCAA underdog. VCU lost four starters from LY but their new group leads country, forcing turnovers on 27.4% of possessions. Wichita has two juniors, five seniors in its rotation- they're 9-1 in last 10 games, losing by point in Valley semifinals. Shockers protect ball well. Since 2005, MVC favorites are 4-1 vs spread in this round.

West Virginia will have home crowd on its side in Pittsburgh, but they'll need much better offense to advance; they've really struggled to score at end of games late in season, but they have won first round game in five of last six tournaments. Gonzaga is a young team, with one senior in its top six players; they're 7-2 in first round games last nine years, 5-4 vs spread as tournament underdog. Since 2005, Big East teams seeded 8th or lower are just 2-6 SU. Gonzaga won eight of its last ten games, with two losses by total of five points- they play lot of tough non-conference games, so doubtful they'll be intimidated by Big East opponent.

South Dakota State has four guys who make 40%+ from arc, but its best player shoots only 24.4%-- he is terrific passer who gets inside defense and creates shots for teammates; Jackrabbits won by 19 at Washington in December, so if Baylor doesn't defend arc well, this could get dicey. Summit League isn't bad ball, but their teams are 0-9 in NCAAs the last nine years, covering spread two of last three years. Last three years, Big X double digit favorites are 3-5 vs spread in this round. Baylor is 10-7 in its last 17 games after starting season 17-0; they block lot of shots but are average defending the arc, which is where Jackrabbits can hurt them.

Iowa State has NBA player in White, who shoots 53% from floor, only 49% from line; Cyclones are in tourney for first time since 2005- they beat Providence of Big East by 10 in December, part of a poor schedule they played to build confidence with team of transfers for league play, and it worked, with ISU going surprisingly good 12-7. UConn is 8-12 in last 20 games, but won three of four with Calhoun back on bench- they defend basket well but don't defend the arc so well. Christopherson is a senior guard who could do damage here. Since '05, Big East teams seeded 8th or lower are just 2-6 SU.

Indiana lost PG Jones for season last week; Hoosiers are in tournament for first time since '08- they're 13-0 out of conference, winning by hoop at NC State, beating Kentucky at home. Last four years, underdogs are 9-7 vs spread in 4-13 games, but since 2007, single digit dogs are 5-10 vs spread in this round, double digit dogs 4-1. New Mexico State uses only seven guys, but five are juniors/seniors. Aggies get to foul line more than anyone in country and are #4 team on offensive boards- they hold foes to 32% behind arc, which is important against Indiana team that shoots 43.3% behind arc, second-best in country.

Loyola Md is carrying banner for MAAC after Iona's epic collapse on Tuesday; since 2005, MAAC underdogs are 3-7 vs spread in first round games. Greyhounds have only one senior in their rotation, lost by 24 at Kentucky in their only game vs top 50 opponent. Over last seven years, underdogs are 16-12 vs spread in 2-15 games. Ohio State is just 6-4 in its last ten games, but all four losses were against top 25 teams- they're 9-6 vs spread this season when laying double digits. Since 2003, Big Dozen double digit first round favorites are 4-6 against the spread. Ohio State lost to Siena of MAAC in '09, last first round win for MAAC.

Colorado won four games in four days to get here; UNLV flattened out late in year, losing last four road games, going 5-5 in last 10 games, with last win away from home on January 28. Underdogs are 10-2 vs spread in 6-11 games last three years. Rebels beat Cal by 17, USC by 11 in its two games vs Pac-12 foes. Buffaloes are 1-2 vs MWC opponents, with win over Air Force, losses to Colorado State/Wyoming. UNLV has four seniors in its top eight players; their expectations got raised little bit too high after they upset North Carolina in December. Pac-12 teams are 10-2 in first round/play-in games the last three tournaments.

Friday's games
Day games
Texas is 7-2 in first round games last nine years, with both losses coming as an 8-seed; lowest seed they won as was a 7. Longhorns are 3-4 in last seven games, 4-10 vs top 40 teams- they make only 32.7% behind arc. Cincinnati won seven of its last nine games, losing 50-44 to Louisville in ugly Big East title game. Cincinnati is 6-2 vs top 30 teams, with 56-55 win over Oklahoma in only game vs Big X foe. Four of top seven guys for Texas are freshmen. Big East teams are 12-15-1 against spread when number is less than 4 points; Big X teams are 16-6-1. Over last three years, underdogs are 10-2 vs spread in 6-11 games.

NC State won four of last five games to sneak into field for first time in seven years; they're 5-10 vs top 60 teams.Since '03, ACC teams seeded #6 or worse are still 10-8 SU. San Diego State is back in tourney despite losing four starters from LY's Sweet 16 team; Aztecs started year 18-2, but went 8-5 in last 13 games, with four wins by 3 or less points, or in OT. Over last three years, underdogs are 10-2 vs spread in 6-11 games. ACC favorites of less than 5 points are 7-9 vs spread in non-conference games; MWC underdogs of 4 or less points are 4-8. Since 2003, MWC teams are 8-15 SU in this round, but 4-3 the last two years.

Creighton is a great offensive team; Alabama excels on defense. Bluejays won their last seven games, with four of seven by 2 or less points or in OT. Alabama is 8-8 in its last 16 games after 13-3 start; Mitchell is out for the Tide, which hurts its defense. Tide is 2-6 vs top 40 teams, with both wins way back in November. MVC teams are 12-3 vs spread when number is 3 or less points; SEC teams are 13-9. Bluejays make 42.5% on the arc, 55.5% inside it; they've won 14 road/neutral court games. This game opened at Creighton -2, but now they're +2. Alabama won by 10 over Wichita State, best team in MVC, back in November.

Over last three years, ACC underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in first round; from '03-'08, all 30 ACC entrants were favored in first round. Underdogs are 7-1 SU in 7-10 games last two years, with only fave that won BYU in double OT over Florida two years ago; Gators won 11 games in a row when they allowed less than 70 points, lost last seven in row when they allowed more than 70. Virginia has good defense thats been hurt by Sene being injured; they're 3-5 in last eight games. Florida lost four of its last five games, with two losses to Kentucky. SEC favorites of less than 5 points are 10-4 vs spread; ACC dogs of less than 5 points are 8-12.

Over last six years, #3 seeds are 15-9 vs spread in first round games, as gap has widened between haves/have-nots (11-13 in prior six tourneys). Florida State is first team in 16 years to win four games in same season against UNC/Duke (4-1); they also went 0-2 vs Ivy League teams, as its guards can be erratic. St Bonaventure is in tourney for first time in over decade; they lost to Saint Louis by 24, Temple by 6 in its two games vs top 40 teams- they're 0-2 vs ACC teams, losing to Virginia Tech by 9, NC State by a hoop. ACC favorites of 7 or less points are 10-15 vs spread; Atlantic 14 underdogs of 7 or less points are 20-19-1.

Georgetown lost badly to Ohio U/VCU in first round last two years, so they have monkey to get off back; Hoyas are #5 team in eFG% defense, #1 against 3-pointers (26.6%). Belmont won its last 14 games, against inferior competition; they're 0-4 in NCAAs last six years, losing by 34-25-1-14 points. Atlantic Sun teams are 0-9 in NCAAs last nine seasons, 2-4 vs spread in last six, losing last three years by 10-29-14 points. This game opened at 6.5, was quickly bet down to 3.5. Big East favorites of 5 or less points are 13-14 vs spread. Belmont lost by point at Duke, by 16 at Memphis, their only two games vs top 60 opponents.

Health of Henson's left hand/wrist is primary concern for Tar Heel club that could beat Vermont if they showed up hung over; North Carolina is 2-3-1 vs spread in last six first round games, winning by 28-4-21-39-43-15 points. Vermont held Lamar to 33% in easy win Wednesday, league's first NCAA win since Catamounts upset Syracuse in '05. America East teams are 0-6 in this round last six years, 2-4 vs spread, with last five losses all by 19+ points. ACC favorites of 15+ points are 11-11 against spread this season. Vermont lost to Saint Louis by 19, to Harvard by 7; also lost to South Florida by a hoop and Iona by 1, so they compete.

Norfolk State played Marquette twice at beginning of season, losing by 31 in first meeting, by hoop in rematch; Missouri only plays seven guys and three of them were nursing bumps/bruises at Big 12 tourney last weekend. MEAC teams are 1-9 in NCAA games last nine years (4-6 vs spread), with only win a play-in game; they lost last three years by 38-27-42 points. Mizzou only plays seven guys, but five are seniors; they are #1 in offensive efficiency, making 39.5% behind arc, 56.9% inside it. Norfolk beat Drexel before Dragons got hot, their only win in five games against top 100 teams, with losses by 31-3-13-32 points.

Night games
Interesting contrast with Memphis being much more athletic than much more experienced Saint Louis team led by skilled tactician Majerus, who has stellar record in first round games but hasn't been in tourney in nine years. Since 2003, Atlantic 14 underdogs are 5-7 vs spread in first round of NCAAs; Memphis won five of last six first round games, but is 1-4-1 vs spread as first round favorite. Conference USA favorites of 5 or less points are 11-13 vs spread. Atlantic 14 underdogs of 5 or less points are 12-13-1. Billikens lost to New Mexico by 4 in only game vs top 50 foe; their wins in Anaheim tourney were against teams that had bad years.

Since 2008, double digit favorite from ACC are 5-1 vs spread in opening round; Duke lost two of last three games, getting beat by Florida State in ACC tourney- their last four wins are all by 8 or less points. Lehigh lost both its game vs top 50 teams this season by nine points each. Kelly is a question mark for Blue Devils, who won't need him here, but will in next game. Duke won/covered last three first round games, winning by 42-29-24 points. Patriot League teams are 0-5 in NCAAs since Bucknell won back-back first round games in 2005-06, losing last five years by 10-15-13-16-29 points, but since 2003, they're 6-2 vs spread in this round.

Young Ohio U (no seniors who play) won eight of last nine games, force turnovers on 26.7% of possessions (#2 in country); they lost 77-72 to Louisville back in November, so big stage shouldn't awe them. Michigan won seven of its last nine games- they get 36% of their points on 3's, but Bobcats defend arc well, allowing opponents to make just 30.3% behind arc. MAC teams ars surprisingly bad 1-7 in first round last eight years, but they covered four of last five, losing games by 3-13-13-13 points. Four of Michigan's top six guys are freshmen/sophs; they covered five of last seven games as a favorite.

WCC teams are 10-5 in this round since 2003, despite being underdog in 11 of 15 games; St Mary's was held to 60 or less points in five games it lost this season, scoring 67+ points in 24 of 27 wins. Gaels' defensive ace Holt is expected back here; St Mary's hasn't played in 10 days since OT win over Gonzaga in WCC title game. Boilermakers turn ball over less than any team in country, 13.5% of time. Big Dozen teams are 10-9 vs spread in games where spread is 3 or less points. WCC teams are 7-5-1. Since 2005, Big Dozen teams seeded #8 or lower are 6-10 SU in first round. Purdue is 3-9 vs top 50 teams (Gaels are #44).

NEC teams are 2-9 in NCAAs since 2003; both wins coming in play-in games, but they've covered six of last seven first round games, with five of last seven first round losses by 15 or less points. LIU is 20-2 in last 22 games since starting season 5-6; they're adept at getting to foul line, scoring 25.5% of points from there. Blackbirds make 36.8% behind arc, but Michigan State holds opponents to 29.2% on arc. Since 2004, Izzo is 2-6 vs spread in first round games; Big Dozen double digit favorites are 5-6 in first round. This season, Big Dozen favorites of 15+ points are 14-9-1 vs spread. LIU lost by 16-8 in two games vs top 100 foes.

Xavier was 7-0 when it had big brawl with crosstown rival Cincinnati and had several players suspended; they're 14-12 since then, but did win three of last four games, losing to Bonnies in A-14 semifinals. ESPN's Bob Valvano suggested Monday that Xavier is underachieving team that is finally hitting its stride, while Notre Dame overachieved this season and has finally hit a wall; since 2003, Irish are 3-2 in this round, but 1-4 vs spread, winning by 1-18-13 points. Atlantic 14 underdogs of 5 or less points are 13-14-1 vs spread; Big East favorites of 5 points or less are also 13-14. Irish are 2-3 in last five games, including loss to St John's.

South Florida is a dominant defensive team that crushed Cal Wednesday, leading 36-13 at half; Bulls won 14 of last 20 games after 7-7 start- they held last 11 opponents under 60 points. Temple is 13-2 last 15 games, but first round lost to UMass in A-14 tourney is red flag, especially as Dunphy's postseason history isn't pretty- his long NCAA drought was ended LY, with 66-64 win over Penn State, before double OT loss to a real good San Diego State team in 2nd round. Owls beat Villanova by 11 in only game vs Big East foe- they won all five OT games they played this season. Temple makes 40.2% of its shots behind arc.

Since 2003, Horizon League underdogs are 16-9 vs spread in NCAAs, as Butler covered seven of eight last two years in advancing to Final Fours both years. Detroit is better than average 15-seed; McCallum is an NBA player who is at Detroit because his dad is the coach; Titans are 15-3 in last 18 games after 7-10 start, with Indiana transfer Holman providing beef off bench. Kansas is 3-6 as opening round favorite last nine years, failing to cover last three years in wins by 19-16-10 points. Titans make only 29.5% behind arc; they lost to Notre Dame by 6, Alabama by 8 in only two games they played against top 50 teams.

Other tournament
Kent State lost five of its last seven games, losing three of last four away from home. SC-Upstate lost 75-70 to Toledo of MAC in November.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27576 Followers:33
03/15/2012 10:59 AM

NCAAB

Thursday, March 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA previews & picks: Thursday's West Region action
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No. 13 BYU Cougars at No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles (-6, N/A)

THE STORY: Marquette, making its seventh straight NCAA tournament appearance, puts its No. 3 seed on the line Thursday against 14th-seeded BYU in a West Regional game in Louisville, Ky. The Golden Eagles finished second in the regular season in the rugged Big East, but were upset in the quarterfinals of the league tournament by Louisville. BYU, which pulled off a historic comeback Tuesday by coming from 25 down to stun Iona , is appearing in the Big Dance for the sixth straight year. Both Marquette and BYU advanced to the Sweet 16 last season.

PICK: Golden Eagles


No. 11 Colorado State Rams vs. No. 6 Murray State Racers (-4, 136)

THE STORY: Murray State begins its NCAA tournament journey in its home state on Thursday when the sixth-seeded Racers meet Colorado State in the South Regional round of 64 in Louisville, Ky. Murray State, the last Division-I team to lose this season after its school record 23-0 start, begins postseason play with the best record in the nation and is making its 15th NCAA tourney appearance. The Racers are back in the the Big Dance for the second time in three years. Colorado State, the No. 11 seed, finished fourth in the Mountain West Conference and is making its first NCAA appearance since 2003.

PICK: Racers


No. 13 Davidson Wildcats vs. No. 4 Louisville Cardinals (-7.5, 139)

THE STORY: Louisville has been one-and-done in each of the past two NCAA tournaments and the fourth-seeded Cardinals will try again to get out of the Round of 64 when they meet 13th-seeded Davidson in the West Regional. The Cardinals were upset by Morehead State last season and lost to California in 2010. Davidson is back in the tournament for the first time since nearly reaching the Final Four in 2008. The squad led by Stephen Curry lost by two points to Kansas in the regional final. The Wildcats qualified this time by notching a 93-91 double-overtime victory over Western Carolina in the Southern Conference tournament final. Louisville was in regardless, but won four straight games to win the Big East Conference tournament.

PICK: Cardinals


No. 12 Long Beach State 49ers vs. No. 5 New Mexico (-4, 137)

THE STORY: Two of the better teams in the West square off when fifth-seeded New Mexico and 12th-seed Long Beach State meet in the West Regional. The Lobos are a deep athletic squad that shared the Mountain West regular season title with San Diego State before winning the league’s conference tournament. Long Beach State played a tough non-conference schedule and still needed to win the Big West Conference tournament title to make the 68-team field. Both teams feature a premier player into the Round of 64 game – New Mexico senior forward Drew Gordon and the 49ers do-everything senior guard Casper Ware.

PICK: Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: