steve_janus Posts:310 Followers:5
On 03/09/2012 11:48 PM in Cappers

NBA FREE PICK: Miami Heat -9

Indiana vs. Miami, 03/10/2012 19:30
Point Spread: -9/-110 Miami

The Indiana Pacers are getting a lot of love from the media after a great first half, but this team is no where near the Bulls or the Heat in the Eastern Conference. They put together a nice six game winning streak, but those wins came against the likes of New Jersey, Charlotte, New Orleans, and Golden State. They followed up the winning streak with a 20-point loss at Chicago and then lost by 5-points at home to Atlanta as a 7.5-point favorite.

They really don't match up well with Heat and it's shown in their first two games this season. Miami won 118-83 at home on Jan. 4 and 105-90 at Indiana on Feb. 14. Most of the Pacers offense is ran through perimeter players, which is what the Heat defense specializes against. Indiana doesn't have the post players that can take advantage of the Heat's lackluster interior defense.

The Heat will be motivated to get this win after watching the Bulls drop a game on Thursday. Miami trails Chicago by 1.5-games for the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. The 9-point spread might seem like a lot to lay, but the Heat should easily win this game by double-digits.

The Heat are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. BET MIAMI!

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