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jack_jones
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Jack's Free Pick Thursday!

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On 03/08/2012 11:35 AM in Cappers
Texas A&M vs. Kansas, 03/08/2012 15:00
Point Spread: +14/-105 Texas A&M

Texas A&M is certainly one of the biggest sleepers heading into the Big 12 Tournament. This team is a lot more talented than the No. 9 seed they have been given. The Aggies battled injuries all season, but they have finally started to get healthy here down the stretch.

Starting F Khris Middleton (12.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and starting PG Dash Harris (5.9 PPG, 4.2 APG) have each missed time due to injury. Both players are back and healthy and making key contributions here down the stretch. Texas A&M was able to get by Oklahoma last night, and I have them giving Kansas a run for their money today.

Texas A&M was supposed to compete for a Big 12 title this season, but injuries have prevented that. The Aggies have played the Jayhawks very tough this year, certainly showing what they are capable of. They lost their first meeting at Kansas 54-64 as a 19-point underdog, and lost their second meeting 58-66 at home as a 10-point dog. After holding Kansas to an average of 65 points/game in their first two meetings, I like their chances of staying within 14 points today.

This play falls into a system that is 39-15 (72.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (KANSAS) - after 8 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (>=80%) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%). The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Jayhawks, not once losing by more than 13 points. Bet Texas A&M Thursday.

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