steve_janus Posts:310 Followers:5
On 02/23/2012 01:11 PM in Cappers

NCAAB FREE PICK: Duke -1.5

Duke vs. Florida State, 02/23/2012 19:00
Point Spread: -1½/-105 Duke

There is no way I'm passing up on the Blue Devils as a 1.5-point favorite, especially when Duke is out for revenge from a shocking home loss to Florida State earlier this season.

If you don't think the Blue Devils are showing some great value in this game, just look at how they were a 6-point underdog at North Carolina. A game in which they won outright 85-84. I think Florida State will be able to keep this game close, but I look for Duke to pull away in the second half.

When Florida State upset Duke 76-73 at home earlier this season, they shot a ridiculous 54.0% from the field, easily their best mark in conference play. Duke on the other hand shot just 39.7%. I think Florida State's defense will keep Duke around 40%, but I don't see them shooting over 50% on offense in this one.

The Blue Devils are an amazing 13-4 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. As good as Florida State has been at home, they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. BET DUKE!

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