cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
On 02/20/2012 03:41 PM in NCAA Basketball

Cnotes Monday's Best Bets NCAAB-NBA-NHL !

Disappointing UConn And Villanova Meet Monday

College basketball takes a breather from its huge Saturday card with just 28 games combined on Sunday and Monday. Perhaps the schedule was manipulated to give everyone time to properly honor US Presidents on the Monday holiday in order to reflect on the men who've had extra-marital affairs with White House interns, resorted to break-ins of the opposing party's headquarters, waged wars on invisible weapons of mass destruction, and done their best to generally drive this great country down the drain in debt.

Speaking of character issues, one of Sunday's top matchups involves a team currently experiencing a bit of a roster crisis. The Big Ten clash between the Michigan State Spartans and Purdue Boilermakers will get underway from Mackey Arena in West Lafayette, IN at 1:00 p.m. (ET).

Purdue's task of upsetting No. 7 Michigan State will be made even more difficult after two key contributors to Matt Painter's team were suspended on Friday. Starting guard Kelsey Barlow has been dismissed from the team for the remainder of the season after he and teammate DJ Byrd were involved in an incident at a local bar. Byrd was arrested for public intoxication and suspended for Sunday's game.

The duo has combined to fill a little more than 40 minutes of court time per game for Painter to date, scoring over 16 points and grabbing 5.6 rebounds between them. Redshirt freshman Anthony Johnson (5.1 PPG) and true freshman Jacob Lawson (2.9 PPG) could see more time on the floor Sunday as a result.

Tom Izzo's Spartans enter the game playing about as well as any team in the country the past month. Michigan State has won six of its last seven, covering each of those victories, and taken out three ranked schools during the past four games (Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin).

The squads met in East Lansing about a month ago, and it was all MSU who rolled to an 83-58 rout as 8-point home favorites. Thanks to the Spartans' effort, the 'over' cashed for just the third time in the last nine meetings. Purdue has won and covered four of the last five played in West Lafayette, State's only victory in that span a 53-44 upset as 4-point 'dogs in Feb. 2010.

Sunday evening (6:00 p.m. ET) finds the No. 5 Duke Blue Devils up on Chestnut Hill for an ACC collision with the Boston College Eagles. The game pits teams heading in the opposite direction with Duke coming out on top in 10 of its last 12 while BC has dropped seven of eight.

Duke is flying high after yet another late rally this past Thursday. Trailing North Carolina State by 20 at home nearly midway through the second half, the Blue Devils stormed back for a 78-73 win as 10-point favorites. Sunday's challenge at Boston College is to avoid looking ahead to Thursday's battle down in Tallahassee vs. the Florida State Seminoles. Duke, FSU and North Carolina entered the weekend at the top of the ACC standings with 9-2 league records.

What hasn't been a challenge for the Blue Devils so far is playing on the road. Duke has won all five ACC games away from Durham this season, going 4-1 against the spread, and leads this series with a 13-2 all-time record. Boston College has covered four of the last five played at Conte Forum, including an 80-74 outright win as a 7½-point underdog in Feb. 2009.

Looking ahead to Monday, ESPN will broadcast a doubleheader that tips with a pair of struggling Big East teams at 7:00 p.m. (ET) when the Connecticut Huskies visit the Villanova Wildcats. Both teams were at home for Saturday tilts that were still pending at press. The Huskies were laying 2½-3 points against Marquette and the Wildcats were 2-point underdogs vs. Notre Dame.

It's been a trying season for both UConn and 'Nova who started the weekend in the bottom half of the conference standings. Connecticut (16-9 overall) stood just 6-7 in Big East action and had dropped six of its last eight before the battle with Marquette. Betting the Huskies has been a losing proposition with the defending national champs just 7-13-1 ATS.

Villanova's results have been even worse. The Wildcats were 11-14 for the campaign entering Saturday, 4-9 in conference contests and 5-16-1 ATS.

It's the only scheduled skirmish between the two this season. Last year's meeting in Connecticut saw the Huskies eke out a 61-59 triumph to just miss the cover as 2½-point favorites. The spread victory for the Wildcats was their fifth in the last seven meetings.

That game is followed by a Big 12 battle in Austin between the Texas Longhorns and No. 9 Baylor Bears (9:00 p.m. ET). Each team will have short rest from their matchups on Saturday when Texas was 3-point chalk at Oklahoma State and Baylor was giving up seven at home to Kansas State.

The 'Horns and Bears met in Waco on Jan. 28, a 76-71 win for Baylor who fell a bucket shy of getting the cover as a 7-point favorite. The game did skip past the 140-point scoreboard hurdle, the eighth time in the last 11 meetings for 'over' bettors to cash their tickets.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
02/20/2012 03:44 PM

Betting Notebook

February 20, 2012


Rebel Yell!

My beloved Runnin' Rebels of UNLV (22-6, 6-4 MWC) have hit a brick wall and are currently in the midst of a streak that has seen them cover only one game in their last seven. That lone win was nearly three weeks ago against Colorado State when they laid 14 points at home. Of course, why even mention that it was at home, because if we mention UNLV covering the spread, it has to be at the Thomas & Mack Center.

UNLV has now lost its last three road games and haven't covered a road game in the last seven tries. Without even looking at the spread, or who they're playing, you can just walk up to the betting window when they're on the road and say "I'll take whoever's playing UNLV" and you wouldn't have lost a ticket since Dec. 17 when they beat a ranked Illinois squad as a two-point underdog.

Granted, most of us in Las Vegas had high expectations of UNLV basketball this season after they gave us taste of how good they could be when they upset then No. 1 North Carolina (90-80). We finally felt like Rebel basketball mattered again in the college basketball world after two decades of play slightly above mediocrity. We saw confidence, solidarity and a toughness within the players that hadn't been witnessed since the days of Jerry Tarkanain.

Even when they lost on the road to tough home teams like Wichita State (70-89) and Wisconsin (51-62), it may have deflated Las Vegas' bubble of high hopes a little bit, but it was merely was shrugged off as a learning experience against very good teams that would make UNLV better down the road in conference play. It proved right as the Rebels went on tear over their next seven games, pummeling everyone in their way resembling how teams from the distant past did it.

The two-point loss (67-69) at San Diego State was disheartening, but they battled hard and overcame a bad shooting game with physical play. Although they didn't cover the spread at Boise State and Air Force, they fought back in overtime to get the wins. But in the back of almost every Rebel supporter's mind, there was less confidence when discussing how the supposed magical season would end up.

The anxiety was proven right two weeks ago with a road loss (66-68) at Wyoming and then a week later with a heartbreaking 102-97 overtime loss at TCU, a game the Rebels were up by 17 points in the second half. Solace was taken in the fact that at least they were taken to the brink, played well enough to win along the MWC being the fifth ranked RPI conference in the nation for a reason, every team can ball.

However, Saturday's 65-45 loss at New Mexico shined a light brighter on UNLV's weaknesses more so than any other juncture of the season. After taking a 27-26 lead to half-time, UNLV basically took itself out of the game, and dare I say it, QUIT. I never thought I'd say that about this team with all the hustle they've shown throughout the season. Shoot poorly and miss lots of lay-ups? Yes, I say it all the time, but never QUIT.

Up next for the Rebels are four very winnable games, with only one coming on the road (Colorado State), before the conference tournament begins at the Thomas & Mack.

While I could care less about all the crumpled losing UNLV bet tickets in my pocket, I am concerned about what lesson, if any, the Rebels take from such a crushing loss. If I'm sitting at home disheveled watching the game, how do the players wearing the uniforms feel having been directly responsible for such embarrassment.

Hopefully coach Dave Rice takes it upon himself to ensure the Rebels remember the pain and the exact feeling they had fighting through thousands of rowdy Lobos fans storming the court after their win to get back to the locker room. Remember it, embrace it and use it for good.

Best thing to do: Take a photo of the scoreboard that shows a 20-point loss and post it everywhere in their locker room and practice facility. Hold each player accountable for their role in the loss and then help them improve upon it. If the players know what they did wrong in their worst moment of the season, they'll be more apt not to put themselves individually in the same situation.

I must confess that I am a proud Rebel. I may be a little selfish in my desires to see UNLV advance through the NCAA Tournament, but I wouldn't feel so passionate about their latest loss if I didn't see something in this squad that made me believe they could do some damage in March. I've seen plenty of bad UNLV losses over the years, but this one stung.

I've always been pretty honest with myself regarding the Rebels realistic prospects and now I'm at the point of just hoping for a quick remedy to fix this extremely talented team before the dream is over.

Teams on the Bubble

Miami, Fl. (16-9): The Canes have made easy work of bad ACC teams and had their one shining moment of the season with a win at home against Duke, but they have lost every other game against ranked opponents. They'll have a chance to solidify their resume with a win at home against Florida State this Sunday.

Washington (19-8): They may now be off the bubble with a 12-3 conference record after beating Arizona Saturday, but it's still debatable whether the Pac 12 gets one or two teams. With the way they have turned it up lately, they should get an invite even if they don't win the conference tournament. I watch a lot of Pac 12 games and I must say the quality of the league has gotten a bad rap. If the Huskies make it, they might take some ranked teams down.

Xavier (17-9): They came away with an overtime win over Dayton last Saturday that helps their cause, but they may have to win one, or both, of their remaining road games at U-Mass and Saint Louis to have a shot at getting in.

Northwestern (16-10): While the mid-majors were playing bracket-busters, the Wildcats played their own version of it against another bubble team on Saturday, Minnesota, and won 64-53. Their best win of the year was beating Michigan State, which is now huge considering how well the Spartans are playing.

North Carolina State (18-9): The ACC doesn't carry the weight it once did and the Wolfpack is now 0-6 against ranked teams. They may have to beat North Carolina Tuesday to have a shot at an at-large bid.

Illinois (16-11): They've now lost five in a row, but have huge wins against Ohio State and Michigan State on the year. However, that might not be enough in light of their current form. They may have to beat either Ohio State or Wisconsin on the road to have any shot.

Central Florida (19-7): They may be able to seal their fate with a Feb. 28 win at Memphis. Their only win over a ranked team came in November against Connecticut, who was then No. 4 at the time, but it doesn't look so impressive now.

Minnesota (17-10): Minnesota needed the win against Northwestern Saturday and didn't get there. Despite quality wins against Illinois and at Indiana, their three-game losing streak looks to have them NIT bound unless they win out. It's a tough four game stretch for them: Michigan State, Indiana, at Wisconsin and Nebraska.

Oregon (19-8): They needed Thursday's game at Cal and will now be forced to have to win the Pac 12 tournament to make it.

Colorado State (16-9): They currently sit fourth in the very impressive MWC and come off a win against Wyoming who was a bubble team as well. Their March future rests with what they do in their next three games: Homes games against New Mexico and UNLV and on the road at San Diego State.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
02/20/2012 03:47 PM

Games to Watch

February 20, 2012

The start of this year's NCAA Men's Tournament is a little over a month away and it is crunch time for a number of teams which are either jockeying for position for a top seed or trying to work their way off of the bubble to even get into the big dance. The remaining few weeks of the regular season leading up to the conference tournaments are filled with a number of key contests that will go a long way towards shaping the actual 68-team field.
The following is a brief look at this week's top matchups for each day along with a few facts and figures to help handicap the games.

Monday, Feb. 20 - No. 10 Baylor Bears vs. Texas Longhorns (ESPN)

Baylor has dropped three of its last four games to fall to 22-5 straight-up and 9-5 SU in the Big 12. It is 8-12 against the spread overall and the total has gone an even 10-10 on the year. The Bears beat Texas 76-71 on Jan.28 as seven-point home favorites and are 2 ½-point road underdogs this time around. Texas's recent four-game winning streak came to an end with a 90-78 loss to Oklahoma State this past Saturday as a four-point road favorite. The Longhorns are now 17-10 SU overall and 7-7 SU in conference play. They are 14-2 SU and 4-6-1 ATS at home with the total staying 'under' in seven of the 11 games.

Tuesday, Feb. 21 - No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 23 Mississippi State Bulldogs (ESPN)

Kentucky's tear through the SEC has it a perfect 12-0 SU in conference play and it is 26-1 SU overall. The Wildcats are 10-15-1 ATS this season, but 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. They are 6-4 ATS on the road and the total has stayed 'under' in nine of the 10 games. Mississippi State has lost its last three games and four of its last six to fall to 19-8 SU and 6-6 SU in the SEC. The Bulldogs are 11-14 ATS overall and 6-10 ATS at home this season. They are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games and the total has gone 'over' in their last three games against the Wildcats.

Wednesday, Feb. 22 - No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks vs. Texas A&M Aggies (ESPN2)

Kansas's four-game winning streak has it tied with Missouri atop the Big 12 standings at 12-2 SU. The Jayhawks are 22-5 SU overall and 14-11-1 ATS. They beat the Aggies 64-54 at home on Jan.23, but came nowhere near covering the 19-point spread. They are 6-5-1 ATS on the road this season and the total has stayed 'under' in 11 of the 12 games. Texas A&M is just 4-10 SU in conference play and 13-13 SU overall. It has lost five of its last six games, but hung tough in a 71-62 loss to No.3 Missouri this past Saturday as a seven-point home underdog. The Aggies are 11-9 ATS overall and 6-4 ATS at home. The total has gone 6-4 in the 10 games.

Thursday, Feb. 23 - No. 4 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 21 Florida State Seminoles (ESPN)

Duke will look to avenge an earlier 76-73 loss to the Seminoles as a 10 ½-point home favorite. It comes into this matchup 23-4 SU overall and tied with Florida State and North Carolina at 10-2 SU for the lead in the ACC. The Blue Devils are 12-15 ATS this season and 7-6 ATS on the road. Florida State rolled over North Carolina State 76-62 this past Saturday as a two-point road underdog to boost its overall record to 19-7. The Seminoles are 13-11 ATS overall and 8-5 ATS at home. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games and the total has stayed 'under' in five of their last seven games overall.

Friday, Feb. 24 - No. 13 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (ESPN)

Marquette is 22-5 SU on the year and 11-3 SU in Big East play. The Golden Eagles are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games and have covered in seven of their last nine. They are 13-10-1 ATS overall and 9-4 ATS on the road. The total has gone 'over' in seven of their last nine games overall and in nine of the 13 games on the road. West Virginia is 17-10 SU and 13-11 ATS. It is just 2-5 both SU and ATS in its last seven games and the total has gone 'over' in seven of its last 10 games. The Mountaineers face No.25 Notre Dame this Wednesday night on the road before returning home for Friday night's game.

Saturday, Feb. 25 - No. 7 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 22 Virginia Cavaliers (ESPN)

North Carolina extended its overall record to 23-4 SU this past Saturday with a 74-52 rout of Clemson as an 11 ½-point home favorite. The Tar Heels are now 14-12 ATS on the year and 3-0 ATS in their last three games. They are 5-5 ATS on the road this season and the total has gone 'over' in six of the 10 games. Virginia lost to the North Carolina 70-52 on Feb.11 as a nine-point road underdog and has lost three of its last five games to fall to 20-6 SU and 13-8 ATS on the year. The Cavaliers are 3-5 ATS in their last eight games overall and the total has stayed 'under' in six of their last seven. Virginia is 15-2 SU at home this season but just 5-5 ATS.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
02/20/2012 03:49 PM

UConn seeks key win Monday at Villanova

CONNECTICUT HUSKIES (16-10, 6-8 Big East)

at VILLANOVA WILDCATS (11-15, 4-10 Big East)


Tip-Off: Monday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Connecticut -3, Total: 136½

Connecticut looks to grab an important conference road win to build on an increasingly underwhelming NCAA Tournament resume when it travels to Philadelphia to take on long-time rival Villanova on Monday night.

Usually perennial Big East powerhouses, both ‘Nova and UConn find themselves in unfamiliar territory this season in the bottom half of the conference standings. The Huskies look to bounce back from a 79-64 home loss to Marquette on Saturday—a crucial game in which UConn inexplicably lacked energy and passion. Connecticut has just two road wins all season (2-6 SU, 1-7 ATS), dropping four in a row (SU and ATS), but three of those losses came against teams in the top six of the Big East. Villanova’s struggles are unlikely to improve on Monday, with leading scorer Maalik Wayns (17.8 PPG—3rd in Big East) set to miss his third straight game with an MCL sprain. The Wildcats blew a 20-point lead at home in an eventual 74-70 loss to Notre Dame on Saturday. Villanova has now lost five of its past six games straight up, and hasn’t won ATS in seven consecutive games (0-6-1 ATS). As bad as UConn has been on the road, if the Huskies have any hope of grabbing a bid to the Big Dance, they will find a way to win this one. CONNECTICUT is the pick to beat a short-handed Villanova squad.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the Huskies:

Play On - Road teams as a favorite or pick (CONNECTICUT) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off a home loss. (69-32 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.3%, +33.8 units. Rating = 3*).

UConn’s perimeter defense was exposed against Marquette, allowing the Golden Eagles to shoot 46% (10-for-22) from three-point range. In their last three losses, the Huskies allowed opponents to drain the deep ball at an alarmingly high rate of 49.2 percent (31-for-63). Despite all of the talent in the lineup, UConn still lacks a strong on-court leader. Leading scorer Jeremy Lamb (17.3 PPG) has regained his scoring touch after a midseason slump, scoring 18+ points in each of his past three games on 53% FG. The Huskies will need freshman center Andre Drummond (10.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG) to stay out of foul trouble in this game, after playing just 24 minutes in the loss to Marquette. Connecticut is 5-1 when Drummond posts a double-double this season.

Villanova has struggled mightily this season, and it doesn’t get more deflating than blowing a 20-point lead at home. Like the Huskies, the Wildcats were also haunted by poor perimeter defense against the Irish—allowing Notre Dame to sink nine of its 12 three-pointers in the second half. The ‘Cats have kept games close without Wayns in the lineup—losing by four points in each game—but there simply isn’t enough consistent secondary scoring to win close games. Villanova will need another strong outing from junior guard Dominic Cheek (12.6 PPG), who scored 19 points on 5-of-11 shooting in the loss to Notre Dame. Freshman forward JayVaughn Pinkston (10.2 PPG, 5.3 RPG) will be the X-factor in this game. After scoring a career-high 28 points against Providence two weeks ago, Pinkston dropped a team-high 24 (7-of-18 FG) against the Irish. UConn really struggled guarding versatile Marquette forward Jae Crowder on Saturday, and if Pinkston can hit shots on the perimeter, it will force the Huskies big men to play out of position.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
02/20/2012 03:50 PM

Texas aims for big win over slumping Baylor

BAYLOR BEARS (22-5)

at TEXAS LONGHORNS (17-10)


Tip-off: Monday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -2, Total: 137

Slumping Baylor looks for a big road win when it visits Austin on Monday for a showdown with Texas.

The Bears have lost three of four and are a woeful 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games. But Baylor is 5-2 (SU and ATS) in the past seven meetings with the Longhorns. Who will prevail in this Big 12 matchup on Monday night? For the answer, check out the College Basketball Weekday 6-Pack for picks covering all the big games in college basketball each weekday.

Perry Jones III (13.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG) is the biggest reason for Baylor’s recent slump. The Bears blew a nine-point lead and lost at home to Kansas State on Saturday, 57-56, with little help from Jones III, who fouled out with just four points and four rebounds. Jones has scored five points or fewer in each of his team’s past three defeats. While the Baylor star has slumped, freshman Quincy Miller (12.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG) has stepped up with 16.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG in his past three games. Frontcourt mate Quincy Acy (12.2 PPG, 6.9 RPG) has been the rock of this team, scoring in double figures in 11 of his past 12 games. Pierre Jackson (12.3 PPG, 5.9 APG) has done a nice job manning the point this year. He has 28 assists and 14 turnovers in his past five games, but has made just 7-of-22 FG in his past three contests. This three-star FoxSheets trend also expects the Bears to win on Monday:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (TEXAS) - in a game involving two good defensive teams (63-67 PPG), after a combined score of 155 points or more. (62-27 since 1997.) (69.7%, +32.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Texas is 14-2 at home this season, losing to Kansas and Missouri by a combined four points. But the school is 0-6 against ranked opponents this season, and is coming off a 90-78 loss at Oklahoma State on Saturday. The Longhorns have been a solid defensive team all season (65.9 PPG, 40.6% FG), but they allowed 5-foot-9 OSU guard Keiton Page to score 40 points on 8-of-14 FG and 20-of-20 FT. Offensively, the Horns played pretty well against the Cowboys, shooting 49% FG and making 8-of-16 threes. Freshman Myck Kabongo (10.3 PPG, 5.0 APG) led the team with 22 points (8-of-12 FG) and leading scorer J’Covan Brown (19.7 PPG) added 20 points. Kabongo is averaging 16.0 PPG in his past three contests, but also has more turnovers (15) than assists (12) in this span. Starting with his 32-point night in Waco on Jan. 28, Brown has scored 17+ points in seven straight games, averaging 21.6 PPG in these contests. But he has made more than 50% of his shots just once in this nine-game span and is shooting 41.9% FG this season. Despite leading the conference in scoring, Brown is shooting a woeful 31% FG in Big 12 home games this season. Freshman Sheldon McClellan (11.3 PPG) was a non-factor against Baylor (0-for-4 FG), but he has been a great scorer in his past five games, hitting double-figures in each contest and averaging 14.2 PPG in this span. This three-star FoxSheets trend thinks Baylor’s losing ways will continue:

BAYLOR is 3-14 ATS (17.6%, -12.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BAYLOR 67.5, OPPONENT 62.4 - (Rating = 3*).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
02/20/2012 03:52 PM

Rose expected to return Monday vs. Atlanta

ATLANTA HAWKS (19-12)

at CHICAGO BULLS (25-8)


Tip-off: Monday, 4:05 p.m. ET
Line: Chicago -10, Total: 182½

The Bulls should finally have reigning MVP Derrick Rose back in the lineup when they host Atlanta on Monday.

Rose (22.0 PPG, 7.8 APG) has missed the Bulls’ past five games because of back problems, the last of which was an embarrassing SU home loss to New Jersey as double-digit favorites on Saturday. Can the Bulls cover such a hefty spread with an injured star player? To find out, connect to the NBA Three at Three Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. NBA Pass is coming off a monster week, posting 12-6 ATS record (67%).

The Hawks are in the midst of a five-game road trip to wrap up the season’s first half, and it hasn’t gotten off to a particularly good start. They were beaten handily by the Lakers and Portland, sandwiched around a narrow win in Phoenix (an ATS push). Their backcourt of Joe Johnson (17.7 PPG) and Jeff Teague (12.2 PPG) is struggling right now. Johnson is averaging just 14.3 PPG and shooting 37.5% from the field (22.9% from three) over his past six games. He’s shooting 29.3% on 3-pt FG in road games this year. Teague played well in Phoenix, but then shot 1-for-10 FG, scoring five points in the Portland loss. He’s making just 39.1% of his shots in February.

Atlanta has gotten strong play from PF Josh Smith (16.0 PPG, 9.5 RPG) and SG Willie Green (7.4 PPG) of late, with Smith averaging a team-high 19.7 PPG through the first three games of their road trip while Green has added 14.3 PPG on 61% FG coming off the bench. The Hawks covered in both their early-season games with the Bulls, including a two-point loss in Chicago. This FoxSheets trend thinks Atlanta can cover again:

ATLANTA is 19-7 ATS (73.1%, +11.3 Units) in road games after failing to cover 3 of their last 4 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 95.9, OPPONENT 91.1 - (Rating = 1*).

It looked like the Bulls might be fine without Rose when they beat Boston at home on Thursday. But they followed it up with a debacle against the Nets, losing by 12 to one of the Eastern Conference’s bottom-feeders. PG C.J. Watson (10.4 PPG) has been an erratic fill-in for Rose, averaging 12.0 PPG during this recent five-game absence but shooting just 34.4% from the field and consistently making poor decisions late in games. Chicago’s frontcourt remained strong however, and PF Carlos Boozer (15.6 PPG, 8.4 RPG) and C Joakim Noah (9.6 PPG, 9.6 RPG) will be a handful for the now undersized Hawks. The FoxSheets have a strong trend working in favor of the Bulls:

CHICAGO is 40-20 ATS (66.7%, +18.0 Units) after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CHICAGO 97.9, OPPONENT 88.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
02/20/2012 03:53 PM

Boston looks to end losing skid in Dallas

BOSTON CELTICS (15-15)

at DALLAS MAVERICKS (20-12)


Tip-off: Monday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -6, Total: 182

The slumping Celtics look to get back on track Monday night when they visit a Dallas team licking its wounds after allowing 104 points in New York on Sunday.

Boston has dropped three in row, including two to lowly Detroit, but the team has played well in Big D, winning six straight ATS, including three SU wins in the past four trips. Can the Celtics snap out of their funk and compete against the defending world champions? To find out, connect to the NBA Three at Three Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. NBA Pass is coming off a monster week, posting 12-6 ATS record (67%).

The Celtics couldn’t do much right in Sunday’s 96-81 loss in Detroit, shooting just 44% from the floor and turning the ball over 22 times. Some of that had to do with a frustrated Rajon Rondo (14.8 PPG, 9.5 APG) who was 1-of-6 FG with six turnovers before getting ejected in the third quarter. Rondo’s play will be key for Boston, especially considering he scored 24 points the last time he faced Dallas on Jan. 11, a 90-85 defeat. Kevin Garnett had 16 in that meeting, but his status is uncertain for Monday’s game after not playing Sunday due to personal reasons. If Garnett can’t go, Chris Wilcox (5.3 PPG) will remain in the starting lineup for the fourth time in five games. Wilcox is averaging 14.0 PPG (68% FG) and 8.0 RPG in those three starts this season. This strong FoxSheets coaching trend believes Boston is due for an ATS win:

Doc Rivers is 24-7 ATS (77.4%, +16.3 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses as the coach of BOSTON. The average score was BOSTON 95.8, OPPONENT 96.9 - (Rating = 2*).

Despite allowing the Knicks to score 104 points Sunday, Dallas has been a very good defensive team all season, holding opponents to 91.2 PPG on 41.6% FG. Star PF Dirk Nowitzki (19.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG) battled injuries for the early part of the season, but he is starting to get on a roll with 25.3 PPG on 51% FG in his past nine games. He scored 34 points (11-of-20 FG) in Sunday’s loss. Jason Terry (14.7 PPG), who missed the previous two games due to a quad injury and personal reasons, was able to return on Sunday. He played pretty well with 13 points, seven rebounds and six assists, but shot just 3-of-10 from three-point range. In his past five games versus the Celtics, Terry is averaging 15.6 PPG on just 42.9% FG. Vince Carter (10.9 PPG) usually plays well against Boston, averaging 21.4 PPG in 47 career meetings with the Celtics. The FoxSheets provide a three-star reason to back the Mavericks:

DALLAS is 15-2 ATS (88.2%, +12.8 Units) vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DALLAS 105.3, OPPONENT 91.7 - (Rating = 3*).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
02/20/2012 03:55 PM

Lakers return home to face Portland Monday

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (17-15)

at LOS ANGELES LAKERS (18-13)


Tip-off: Monday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -4, Total: 180

After yet another disappointing effort on the road (12-point loss at Phoenix), the Lakers return home Monday night in search of a fifth straight win at Staples Center when they host the Blazers.

The Lakers are 10-5 ATS at home, while the Blazers are 6-9 ATS on the road, but does L.A. have what it takes to knock off Portland? To find out, connect to the NBA Three at Three Pass for ATS picks covering all the marquee NBA games each day. NBA Pass is coming off a monster week, posting 12-6 ATS record (67%).

Portland is finally back to full strength with the return of PF LaMarcus Aldridge (22.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG), who missed the better part of three games with a sprained left ankle. Aldridge helped spark his team to a 97-77 home blowout of Atlanta on Saturday with 19 points and 10 rebounds in 35 minutes of action. SF Nicolas Batum (13.6 PPG) led all scorers with 22 points, continuing his hot play of late. Batum has 22.8 PPG on 53% FG in his past four games, all starts. He also scored 25 in his team’s last road game with the Lakers last March. PG Raymond Felton (10.1 PPG, 6.4 APG) bounced back from a scoreless (0-for-7 FG) Thursday night against the Clippers and scored 14 points with eight assists against the Hawks. His career numbers versus the Lakers are pretty solid (15.2 PPG, 6.6 APG), but he shot only 3-of-14 FG in the last meeting on Jan. 5, a 107-96 Blazers home win. Speaking of that last meeting, Gerald Wallace (13.8 PPG) tallied a season-high 31 points in that win. But Wallace has struggled on the road this year with just 9.8 PPG on 38.5% FG (25.9% 3-pt FG). The FoxSheets provide a strong trend backing the Blazers:

Play Against - Home favorites (L.A. LAKERS) - an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) against an average defensive team (92-98 PPG), after a loss by 10 points or more. (67-31 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.4%, +32.9 units. Rating = 2*).

Kobe Bryant (NBA-high 29.0 PPG) vented his frustration after Sunday’s 102-90 loss in Phoenix, a game in which his team trailed by 27 points in the third quarter. Bryant turned the ball over 10 times in the defeat, but still finished with 32 points, seven boards and five assists. PF Pau Gasol (16.6 PPG, 10.7 RPG) posted his ninth straight double-double (17 points, 12 rebounds) in the loss, as he has been able to overcome the distractions of swirling trade rumors (which Bryant disapproves of) to average 17.4 PPG and 13.7 RPG in this nine-game span. Gasol averages 17.1 PPG and 9.0 RPG in 36 career meetings with Portland. C Andrew Bynum (16.3 PPG, 12.5 RPG) has double-doubles in eight of his past 10 games, averaging 16.4 PPG and 13.1 RPG during this span. The FoxSheets provide another strong trend favoring the Lakers:

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (L.A. LAKERS) - revenging a road loss vs. opponent against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. (35-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.5%, +21.8 units. Rating = 2*).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
02/20/2012 03:59 PM

Hoop Trends - Monday

February 20, 2012

SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Spurs are 0-12 ATS (-6.8 ppg) since November 21, 2004 as a road favorite after a win in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Trailblazers are 0-10 OU (-10.9 ppg) since January 29, 2002 on the road after a game at home in which they controlled at least 60% of the available rebounds.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

The Magic are 0-9 OU (-13.9 ppg) since December 12, 2007 on the road after a loss in which Dwight Howard had more rebounds than points.

CHOICE TREND:

The Nets are 0-11 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since March 19, 2004 as a dog with no rest after a home loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field.

TODAY’S TRENDS:

The Knicks are 0-12-1 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since December 11, 2006 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
02/20/2012 04:01 PM

Inside the Paint - Monday

February 20, 2012

While this year’s NBA product has been unwatchable at times, the shortened season has created some nice betting cards and tonight is a perfect example. Eleven games are scheduled for the President’s Day holiday, including an afternoon matinee between Atlanta and Chicago, which is nearly untouchable from a gambler’s perspective. The status of Bulls point guard Derrick Rose (back) has been upgraded to 'probable' yet is he really 100 percent? Plus, backing Atlanta off its three-game West Coast swing doesn’t appear to be a sound investment either.

‘Melo returns?

Carmelo Anthony (groin) is listed ‘probable’ for New York’s (16-16 SU, 15-17 ATS) battle against New Jersey (9-24 SU, 14-19 ATS) tonight. The Knicks have won eight of nine (7-2 ATS), which includes impressive win (104-97) over Dallas. Oddsmakers opened N.Y. as a 9 ½-point favorite and it’s fortunate to have New Jersey playing its third game in three nights. If you follow the 3/3 Results, you can see that fading the Nets might be a good option. Then again, the Nets' Deron Williams had 21 points and 11 assists in his first encounter against Jeremy Lin.

Sleeping Giants

San Antonio (22-9 SU, 18-12 ATS) never gets the respect it should but those following the Association know how good the team is. The Spurs have quietly ripped off 10 straight and they’re setting up to compete for another championship during a shortened season (recall 1999). What’s impressive about the recent streak is that six of the wins have come on the road. The final three games of their “Rodeo Trip” won’t be easy and that includes a Monday affair at Utah (15-15 SU, 15-15 ATS). The Jazz have been much better at home (12-5 SU, 11-6 ATS). The Spurs are short favorites (-3) but make a note that Utah is 4-2 ATS as a home ‘dog. However, the Jazz are playing the backend of a two-game set and they’ve gone 4-7 both SU and ATS on zero days rest. San Antonio has won four straight in this series, including a 15-point (104-89) decision on Dec. 31.

Green means Stop

Boston (15-15 SU, 13-17 ATS) is a complete mess and you would think the team gets broken up by the trade deadline. The Celtics have dropped three straight and five of their last six. Kevin Garnett (personal) is ‘out’ for tonight’s battle at Dallas plus Rajon Rondo could be suspended after getting ejected in last night’s embarrassing loss at Detroit (81-96). On Monday, Boston heads to Dallas (20-12 SU, 18-13 ATS) as a six-point underdog. Even though the Mavs had their six-game winning streak snapped at New York yesterday, I thought this line would be higher. Dallas has been solid at home (12-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) and the C’s have been subpar (3-5 ATS) on zero days rest. Due to the line, this might be a pass game.

We meet again

If anybody bet Milwaukee on Friday against Orlando, then accept my apologies. The Bucks were catching 7 ½-points and led 85-77 in the fourth quarter. Sure enough, the Magic close the game on a 17-0 run and win 94-85. Light up the cigar! Tonight, the pair square off again in Milwaukee and both teams are facing back-to-back spots. The Magic (7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS) have been decent on zero days rest, but the Bucks (3-7 SU, 2-8 ATS) have been a good fade. Including Friday’s outcome, Orlando has won the last five meetings against Milwaukee. Total bettors should be aware that Milwaukee has seen the ‘over’ go 11-2 at home.

Opposite Directions

Minnesota (16-16 SU, 18-14 ATS) has won and covered three straight while Denver (17-15 SU, 19-13 ATS) has dropped three in a row (2-1 ATS). Despite key injuries, the Nuggets lost on a buzzer beat to Memphis (102-103) on Friday and then fell in overtime to Oklahoma City (118-124) last night. Denver is listed as a four-point home favorite over Minnesota. Based on this year’s trends, the better play is to back the Wolves on the road (9-4 ATS) and fade the Nuggets at home (7-8 ATS).

Trap of the Night

Phoenix (13-19 SU, 13-19 ATS) showed some toughness last night by hammering the L.A. Lakers 102-90 in wire-to-wire fashion. The win snapped a four-game losing skid for the Suns. Tonight, Washington (7-24 SU, 10-21 ATS) comes to town and the Suns are only giving 5 ½-points. We understand this isn’t the Phoenix team we’ve seen in past seasons and the home record (6-8 SU, 5-9 ATS) isn’t great either. However, Detroit was a six-point favorite over Washington last week and the Wizards won that game. Can the Suns run them out and notch another double-digit win? Sure, but Phoenix is only 4-5 both SU and ATS in back-to-back spots plus the young Wizards haven’t played since Friday.

Late-Night Chasers

Portland at L.A. Lakers: You’ve done well this season if you’ve faded the Lakers on the road (5-11 SU, 4-12 ATS) and backed them at Staples Center (13-2 SU, 10-5 ATS). Los Angeles was beat up at Phoenix (102-90) last night in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. LaMarcus Aldridge returned from an ankle injury on Saturday and the Trail Blazers blasted the Hawks by 20 (97-77). Portland has been tough to back (5-10 SU, 6-9 ATS) on the road but this line (4) seems a little low. The Lakers are normally laying 6 to 7 points in this spot but the matchup favors the visitor here. Portland stopped the Lakers 107-96 on Jan. 5 as a 3 ½-point home favorite.

L.A. Clippers at Golden State: The Clippers have played better on the road (8-6 SU, 7-6 ATS) lately and they beat the Warriors (105-86) at this venue on opening night (Dec. 25). Golden State has dropped three straight, but two of the losses were by two points or less. The total opened 203 at BetOnline.com but has dropped six points to 197. The Warriors have seen the ‘under’ go 11-6 at home this season.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: