02/14/2012 05:10 PM
Tuesday's Tip Sheet
February 14, 2012
How teams respond off a loss can often be tough to gauge, especially in college basketball. Talent and experience are key factors in rebound games but the opponent and environment still leaves many questions unanswered. Bettors are looking at close to two dozen matchups on the college hardwood tonight and the featured games have teams facing bounce-back situations.
All early lines provided by BetOnline.com, who has openers out quicker than all other betting shops. See for yourself in our Live Odds applet!
No. 14 Florida (19-6 SU, 9-10 ATS) at Alabama (16-8 SU, 9-11 ATS)
The Gators were humbled not once but twice last week. On Wednesday, the school dropped a 20-point decision at Kentucky and followed that loss with its first home defeat of the season on Saturday to Tennessee, 75-70.
Even after dropping two in row, Florida opened as a 4 ½-point road favorite over Alabama and the number has moved to 5 ½ due to multiple suspensions for the Crimson Tide.
Forwards JaMychal Green (14.1 PPG) and Tony Mitchell (13.1 PPG) are still listed as ‘out’ against UF. The team is expected to have guards Trevor Releford (12.4 PPG) and Andrew Steele (5.8 PPG) in the backcourt.
None of the four played in Alabama’s 67-58 loss to LSU on Saturday. The Tide has been a solid bet at home (10-2) this season, and the two losses came to quality opponents in Georgetown and Vanderbilt.
As a visitor, Florida has struggled to a 2-5 record and one of the wins came against South Carolina, who is 1-9 in SEC play. More importantly, the Gators are 1-3 as road favorites with the lone cover coming against the aforementioned Gamecocks. The Gators won’t have Will Yeguete and guard Mike Rosario in the lineup due to injuries. The pair has combined for 12 PPG and seven boards off the bench this season.
The opening total started at 129, which seems a little low. Florida chucks from the outside early and often and Alabama is on a 7-3 run to the ‘over.’ Plus, the ‘over’ is on a 5-0 run in the last five head-to-head meetings. Still, Alabama will be without 27 PPG in the frontcourt but that could open up the paint on both sides of the ball.
No. 6 Ohio State at Minnesota
The Buckeyes looked as bad as they could last Saturday and they were handed a 10-point loss (48-58) at home to Michigan State. Ohio State’s offensive numbers were the worst of the season, as it shot 26.4 percent from the floor and just 2-of-15 (13%) from 3-point land.
The loss snapped Ohio State’s six-game winning streak (5-1 ATS) but there were some telling signs that a setback was coming. The team wasn’t sharp in a road win over Wisconsin (58-52) and they certainly didn’t come to play against Purdue (87-84) last Tuesday.
Fortunately for head coach Thad Matta, his squad has been solid off a loss this season. In the three previous occasions, Ohio State won by 24, 31 and 17 points in the rebound spot. It should be noted that two of the wins came against South Carolina Upstate and Nebraska, the other against Indiana. And, all three of those encounters were in Columbus.
Tonight, the Buckeyes head to Minnesota. The Golden Gophers are considered a “Bubble Team” but they can make or break their case to the selection committee over the next six games. After tonight’s battle against Ohio State, Tubby Smith’s team heads to Northwestern before three ranked tilts against Michigan State, Indiana and Wisconsin.
The Gophers came up short to Wisconsin (61-68) in overtime on Saturday after rallying from a 13-point deficit. Against the Badgers, Minnesota was a one-point home ‘dog and tonight its catching seven points, which tells you the level of class Ohio State is in.
Minnesota has been an underdog six times this season and has produced a 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS mark, with just one of the losses by double digits.
Mike Moser and UNLV haven't been a solid bet on the road. (Getty Images)
OSU has won four straight (3-1 ATS) in this series, including both meetings last season. The ‘over’ is 3-1 during this span, with the Bucks putting up 80 or more points in three of the victories.
No. 22 Virginia (19-5) has had a nice season but the school appears to be more of a bully than a contender. They have one good win (Michigan) on paper and pardon the expression, two decent road losses to Duke (58-61) and Florida State (52-70). The Cavaliers are off a loss to UNC (52-70) on Saturday, which was their second straight setback on the road. Tonight, UVA heads to Clemson, who snapped a three-game losing streak on Saturday with a win over Wake Forest (78-58). The Cavs beat the Tigers 65-61 on Jan. 31 at home, but failed to cover as 7 ½-point favorites. Clemson was leading at the break in that game and the oddsmakers have made it a short (-1.5) unranked favorite here.
Creighton (21-5 SU, 13-9 ATS) was the class of the Missouri Valley Conference before its recent three-game losing streak. The Blue Jays were outclassed at home on Saturday to Wichita State (68-89) and now head on the road to Southern Illinois this Tuesday. Fortunately, they’ve owned the Salukis recently, winning eight straight (6-2 ATS) including a 90-71 win on Jan. 15. Creighton opened as a seven-point road favorite.
If there is a school to watch outside of Kentucky and Florida in the SEC, it could be Mississippi State (19-6 SU, 11-13 ATS). The Bulldogs have some nice non-conference wins on their resume against Texas A&M, Arizona and West Virginia but it also has tough losses, including an overtime setback at home on Saturday to Georgia, 70-68. On Tuesday, Miss State will play four of its next five on the road and the home tilt sandwiched between is versus top-ranked Kentucky. The first opponent is LSU, who’s been decent at home (9-3). The line opened at a Pick ‘em, which says something as well.
Gamblers looking for a letdown spot could turn their attention to UNLV (22-4 SU, 10-12 ATS). The Rebels just beat San Diego State (65-63) on Saturday in a heated affair and now have to travel to TCU tonight. In road only games, UNLV has gone 5-4 SU and 1-7 ATS, which includes a 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS ledger in conference battles. Not to mention, the two wins both came in overtime as well. The Horned Frogs (14-10 SU, 8-11 ATS) aren’t a basketball powerhouse but they’re getting a nice chunk of points and they have won six straight in Fort Worth.
Finally, if you want a solid mid-major matchup to watch on Tuesday, then check out VCU (22-5 SU, 14-11 ATS) and George Mason (21-6 SU, 9-15 ATS). The two schools are tied with Drexel for the Colonial lead at 13-2. Mason hasn’t lost at home (13-0) this season but VCU brings an 11-game winning streak into the affair, five of the victories coming on the road. Fittingly, the game opened Pick ‘em.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: