cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
On 01/27/2012 06:03 PM in NBA

Cnotes Friday's Best Bets NBA-NCAAB !

Miami Heat Welcome Knicks In An NBA Friday Night Fight

The Miami Heat could get superstar Dwyane Wade back on Friday when they host the New York Knicks. This is part of a huge 13-game docket.

There’s also a key game out west with Oklahoma City visiting Golden State. Note that we mentioned a betting trend last week with Western Conference home teams at 70-45-1 against the spread (60.9 percent).

Since then, that number has gone the other way at 12-15 ATS (44.4 percent).

New York Knicks at Miami Heat
8:00 p.m. (ET) on ESPN

New York (7-11 straight up, 4-14 ATS) coach Mike D’Antoni is on the hot seat already. The Knicks are 1-7 SU and ATS in their last eight games, losing at Cleveland on Wednesday (91-81 as 4-point favorites). D’Antoni is known as an offensive guru, but team scoring ranks just 16th (94.5 PPG) and Carmelo Anthony (31.3 percent shooting last five games) is in a major fog.

The unlikely savior could be free agent addition Baron Davis. He’s been out all year with a back injury, but is expected to be the point guard starter when he returns. That’s unlikely to be against Miami as he’s listed as doubtful.

Miami (13-5 SU, 8-10 ATS) has a much bigger injury situation with Wade (ankle). He’s been out the last six games and is questionable for Friday. The Heat are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS without Wade, but failing to cover their last three versus lightweights Detroit (101-98 win), Cleveland (92-85 win) and Milwaukee (91-82 loss).

Coach Erik Spoelstra’s team has been out of sync when Wade has played (5-4 SU and 2-7 ATS), but his presence this time around should be a big boost to the starting lineup. The bench will also look very strong with Shane Battier going back to his normal role.

This is the first meeting between the teams this year. The ‘under’ went 3-0-1 last year and is 8-1 in New York’s road games this season, scoring 93.7 PPG.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors
10:30 p.m. (ET) on NBA-TV

Oklahoma City (15-3 SU, 10-8 ATS) has the best record in basketball and sits only behind Miami and Chicago in NBA Championship future odds. Having its top-6 guys all 27 or younger has really helped in the condensed season.

The Thunder have had a real easy schedule of late. Their last four opponents of New Orleans, Detroit, New Jersey and Washington have a combined 16-58 SU record. They went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in those contests, losing the first one at Washington (105-102) on January 18. The schedule gets much tougher with games at the Clippers and Dallas next.

Golden State (6-11 SU, 8-9 ATS) has played three games (all home) since Stephen Curry returned from his ankle injury. The first two were close losses to Indiana (94-91) and Memphis (91-90), followed by a Portland win (101-93) on Wednesday.

Curry had 32 points last game on 12-of-19 shooting. That was a big improvement on the first two (13-of-33, 15 PPG). He and backcourt mate Monta Ellis (21.9 PPG) need to make sure other teammates get involved if they hope to beat an elite team like Oklahoma City.

Golden State is 4-0 ATS in the last four games against the Thunder, winning the last two at home. This is the first meeting this season.

Key injuries in two more Friday games

Chicago (16-4 SU, 12-8 ATS) hosts Milwaukee (7-10 SU and ATS) in a Central Division battle. The Bulls are 1-1 SU and ATS since losing Luol Deng (wrist). They lost 95-90 as 8½-point favorites to rival Indiana on Wednesday, despite replacement Ronnie Brewer scoring 20 points.

Milwaukee is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three away, beating Houston (105-99), Miami (91-82) and the Knicks (100-86). The Bucks are looking for revenge after going 0-4 SU and ATS versus Chicago last year. They’ll be without center Andrew Bogut (ankle) who was hurt on Wednesday.

Dallas (11-8 SU, 12-7 ATS) welcomes suddenly respectable Utah (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) after just playing each other on January 19. The Mavericks won 94-91 as 2½-point road ‘dogs and have now won and covered 5-straight against the Jazz.

Dirk Nowitzki (knee) was shut down after the Utah game and Dallas is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS in his absence. Lamar Odom is the new starter, but he continues to struggle.

The Jazz had leading scorer and rebounder Al Jefferson (ankle) as a surprise scratch on Wednesday. They lost in overtime (111-106) to Toronto, despite being 10½-point home favorites. He’s questionable Friday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
01/27/2012 06:05 PM

Harvard And Yale Highlight Friday Hoops Schedule

Mention of Harvard and Yale getting together generally conjures up images of a crisp New England autumn afternoon with the Crimson and Bulldogs battling it out on the gridiron. Friday night, however, it's their hoops teams that grab the spotlight on a short college basketball betting schedule.

Harvard, the only ranked team from either poll in action Friday, will make the short trek from Boston to New Haven to meet Yale in a matchup of Ivy League co-leaders. Both teams are 2-0 in conference games, and each won their games by taking out two of the Ivy League bottom feeders twice. The Bulldogs toppled Brown to gain their two conference wins, covering one of the triumphs, while the Crimson recorded the same results against Dartmouth.

Tommy Amaker and Harvard have their sights set on an NCAA Tournament appearance this March. The Crimson were denied that trip last year when they fell to Princeton on a buzzer-beater in what amounted to a one-game playoff after both squads finished the regular season tied with 12-2 Ivy League marks. That loss came on this very floor, with Yale's John Lee Amphitheater chosen as the neutral site for the game. The setback meant Harvard needed an at-large invite to the tournament, an invite that never came to extend their March Madness drought to 65 years and counting.

A big reason why Harvard was forced into that playoff was another defeat at this gym a couple of weeks earlier when a late bucket helped Yale to a 70-69 upset over the Crimson. So in addition to the normal Harvard-Yale rivalry, the Crimson come into this matchup with what amounts to double-revenge with the Bulldogs' home court on their mind.

Harvard enters this one on a four-game win streak, and the last four games with a total each went 'under' with the Crimson 10-3 to the low side for the season. Yale is also riding a four-game string of victories with the last two going 'under.'

MAAC Leaders Take To The Highway

The bulk of Friday's action involves teams from the MAAC, including the trio tied for the conference lead playing on the road. The Iona Gaels, Loyola (MD) Greyhounds and Manhattan Jaspers all have identical 7-2 records in league contests, and it's Iona who will face the toughest opponent on Friday when the Gaels are at Fairfield.

Iona's trip to face the Stags marks the middle of a three-game road trip that began this past Monday with a 65-62 loss at Siena as a 10-point favorite. Fairfield is 5-3 in MAAC play and has won five straight at home vs. Iona since the Gaels last won here in Feb. 2006. This will be a matchup between Fairfield's defense, tops in the MAAC allowing just 62.4 points per game, against an Iona offense that is third in the country scoring at an 83.7 clip.

Loyola will be at Niagara and looking for a little revenge from a 66-61 loss to the Purple Eagles on Jan. 2. The Greyhounds were laying 12 at home to Niagara, and fell apart in the final few minutes when the Eagles closed the game on a 9-0 run.

Manhattan takes a five-game win streak to Canisius, and the Jaspers have been the most consistent team in the league from a betting standpoint. They saw a five-game ATS win streak snapped last Sunday in a 71-64 home win over Niagara who was getting 8½, and the last six Jaspers contests have stayed 'under' the total.

Crimson Not The Only Ballin' Bunch In Boston

Harvard isn't the only school in Boston making some noise on the Hardwood. Boston University has completely turned around its poor start, and the Terriers are on a seven-game win streak as they head to Stony Brook for an America East showdown with the Seawolves. Both teams are 7-1 in conference action, Stony Brook's lone defeat at BU nearly two weeks ago.

Boston University lost its first AEC game at Vermont on Jan. 5, a defeat that dropped the Terriers to 4-11 on the campaign. They've since won the last seven to pull even with an 11-11 overall record. Meanwhile, Stony Brook has responded with three wins since the 61-55 loss at the Terriers who got off to an early 12-point lead in that game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
01/27/2012 06:09 PM

Big Ten Report

January 26, 2012

Each week we will take an inside look at the pulse of College Basketball around the Big Ten and other schools around the Midwest. We will highlight certain trends, hot streaks, cold streaks, and injury updates. A number of things caught our attention as professional handicappers this week. We’d like to share some…
Big Ten

Illinois Fighting Illini: As expected, the Illini suffered a letdown after a huge win over highly ranked Ohio State two weeks ago. First they shot just 34.7% and scored 52 points in a loss at lowly Penn State. Then they dropped their first home game of the season against Wisconsin on Sunday. Center Meyers Leonard (ankle) and guard DJ Richardson are both dealing with injuries right now yet neither is expected to miss any time. Leonard and Richardson combine to average 26.2 points per game and 11.2 rebounds per game and Illinois could really use them at full strength down the stretch.

Minnesota Gophers: The Gophers are climbing their way back into the upper-echelon of the Big Ten with three straight victories (3-0 ATS) after dropping their first four Big Ten conference games. Minnesota has made 52.6% field goals during the three-game win streak while holding opponents to just 35.3%.

Northwestern Wildcats: Northwestern has dropped six of its last eight games and is just 3-6 ATS over its last nine overall. The Wildcats are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS on the road in the Big Ten and they’ve lost all four of those games by an average of 19.5 points per game (three of four losses by 20+ points). Northwestern is converting on just 38.8% of its field goals and allowing opponents to shoot 46.6% in those four games.

Penn State Nittany Lions: Penn State has dropped six of eight conference games so far including three of the last four by double digits. It’s only going to get tougher as PSU recently lost reserve guard Trey Lewis for an indefinite amount of time and forward Billy Oliver has missed the last two games with an illness and it’s uncertain when he will return. The Lions weren’t a deep team to begin with and now their bench is even thinner. PSU could struggle as the next four games on its schedule are; at Ohio State, home vs. Wisconsin, at Iowa, and at Michigan State.

Purdue Boilermakers: Purdue lost another home game on Tuesday against Michigan. The Boilers have now dropped four of the last six games and is 1-5 ATS over that span. They are ninth in the Big Ten in shooting percentage at just 43.7% and last in the Big Ten in free throw percentage at just 63.2%.

Wisconsin Badgers: After losing three straight Big Ten games it looked as though the Badgers would be out of the running for the Big Ten title. Since then, however, Wisco has won four straight games and is back up to fourth place, just a game behind Michigan (3-1 ATS). The Badgers have held the last four opponents to just 38.6% field goals and 30% three-pointers and have also made 59 free throws while opponents have attempted just 58.

News & Notes from other teams around the Midwest

Cleveland State Vikings: The Vikings are tied with Valparaiso atop the Horizon league standings. Starting Saturday, Cleveland State starts a three-game road trip over an eight day span. The Vikes will be favored in each of the three road games as they’re playing teams with a combined record of 22-35. However, they are just 1-5 ATS as a favorite away from home this season.

Dayton Flyers: Dayton continues its ascension up the Atlantic 10 standings despite being without its best player for the past month. Since center Josh Benson was injured, the Flyers are 4-1 SU & ATS. Their offensive philosophy has changed as the Flyers are now using a more up-tempo approach – very successfully. In 14 games with Benson, the Flyers averaged 68.5 points per game and in five games without him, they’re averaging 81 PPG.

Iowa State Cyclones: Iowa State continues to be a valuable team against the spread. The Cyclones have covered five of seven Big 12 games and own a 4-1 ATS mark as an underdog. They have a key pair of games coming up with home dates against Kansas and Kansas State which will determine if ISU is a real contender for a tournament bid. Expect a huge effort from the Cyclones.

Kansas Jayhawks: Be weary of Kansas. The Jayhawks have won 10 straight games dating back to mid-December, but they are getting overvalued by the oddsmakers. They’ve failed to cover three of their last four games and are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a double-digit favorite.

Kansas State Wildcats: Forward Jordan Henriquez has been suspended indefinitely for conduct detrimental to the team. The 6’11” Henriquez averaged 7.1 points and 5.1 rebounds and led the team in blocks.

Marquette Golden Eagles: Marquette has won five games in a row and is 6-1 ATS over its last seven overall. Four of the Golden Eagles’ last five wins have been at home by an average of 13.8 points per game. They’ve found a nice inside presence lately as sophomore forward Davante Gardner has stepped up nicely over the last five games, averaging 13.6 points and 7.6 rebounds per game (averaged just 8.8 PPG and 5.0 RPG over first 16 games).

Missouri Tigers: The Tigers proved their ultimate legitimacy after losing its first and only game in blowout fashion at Kansas State back on January 7th. Since then they’ve won four straight games (4-0 ATS) including a big road win at Baylor last Saturday. All the talk about Missouri focuses on their guards, but forward Ricardo Ratliffe is averaging 21.6 points per game over the last three games. The 6-8 senior had 27 points and eight rebounds in the Tigers' win at Baylor on Saturday and is shooting 77.2 percent on the season!

Murray State Racers: Murray State is now 20-0 and the last remaining undefeated team in the nation. The pressure of the record seems to be weighing on the Racers, however, as they are just 1-4-1 ATS the last six games. They are about to get some good news as coach Steve Prohm says forward Ivan Aska (hand injury) has been cleared to play. The team’s second leading scorer will be a welcome addition.

Wright State Raiders: Wright State is not a strong offensive team. The Raiders rank at or near the bottom of every major offensive category including 332nd in points and 323rd in field goal percentage. Now, their only player that averages double-figures has been unable to practice for the past week because of a calf injury and is questionable heading into Wednesday’s game against Illinois-Chicago.

ATS Tidbits


Bradley is just 1-12 its last 13 games, but 3-0 its last three as a home ‘dog
Evansville is 9-1 ATS its last 10 games
Indiana State is 0-7 ATS its last seven games
Missouri State is 6-3 ATS its last nine and 4-0 ATS its last four as a ‘dog
Oklahoma is 1-6 ATS its last seven games
Wichita State is on a 4-0 ATS run

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
01/27/2012 06:12 PM

Weekend Preview

January 27, 2012

It should be a banner NCAA basketball betting weekend at Bovada because it's the first weekend that is free of NFL games, other than Sunday evening's inconsequential Pro Bowl, since August, and even the NHL schedule is dark this weekend except for its All-Star Game on Sunday as well.

Friday night, as usual, is quiet on the NCAA front with only one ranked team in action: No. 23 Harvard at Yale. There are rarely any BCS conference games scheduled for Fridays - somewhat in deference to high school basketball, much like there is usually only a game or two scheduled for Fridays in college football. Friday does offer bettors a chance to wager on one of the best ATS teams in the nation when Manhattan (14-5 ATS) visits Canisius. Only Middle Tennessee State has more ATS wins.

The action cranks up on Saturday with all but a few Top-25 teams in action and four games available via live play-by-play betting at Bovada.

It starts at 1 p.m. ET when Texas visits No. 7 Baylor on CBS. The Bears are having one of the best seasons in school history but have lost two of their past three. At 13-7 overall, Texas is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament if the Horns don't start winning soon. Texas is one of the worst major conference teams in the nation against the spread at 5-10.

Another Big 12 matchup also will have live betting: No. 5 Kansas at Iowa State at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Jayhawks were supposed to be rebuilding somewhat this season but are in position to win their eighth straight Big 12 title as the only unbeaten in conference play and with a two-game lead over Baylor and Missouri. KU enters on a 10-game winning streak, but this could be a trap game. Iowa State is 0-3 vs. ranked teams this year but has hung close in all three. That includes an 82-73 loss at Kansas a few weeks ago in which ISU led by 3 at halftime. Iowa State hasn't beaten Kansas since February 2005, however.

Next on the live betting schedule is a Big East matchup as No. 10 Georgetown visits Pittsburgh at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Panthers were as high as No. 11 at one point this season in the polls but are at the bottom of the Big East with Providence at 1-7 in conference play. And the only reason Pitt isn't alone in the cellar is it beat the Friars 86-74 on Wednesday to end an eight-game losing streak. Pittsburgh used to be unbeatable at home, losing just 12 times in its first nine seasons at the Petersen Events Center. The Panthers have four straight on their home floor this season.

Finally, the live betting Saturday concludes with Washington at Arizona in Pac-12 action at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Pac-12 could become the first BCS conference to get only one team in the NCAA Tournament, and these two teams have been a big part of the disappointing conference. Pac-12 teams often play the most rugged schedules in a way because they usually play Thursdays and Saturdays.

On Sunday, there is one NCAA game scheduled for live betting: No. 22 Michigan at No. 3 Ohio State at 1 p.m. ET on CBS. The Wolverines have been punching bags of late against their archrivals in the two main betting sports: college football and basketball. But Michigan ended a seven-game losing streak to the Buckeyes in football back in November. The UM basketball team lost three times to OSU last year and has dropped 14 of the past 16 in this series, but this is the best Michigan team in that stretch. However, the Buckeyes have won 37 straight at home, the nation's second-longest streak.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
01/27/2012 06:15 PM

ATS Report -- Good & Bad

January 27, 2012

A month has passed on the young NBA season and we’ll take a look at a few surprises and disappointments so far. More importantly, we’ll identify clubs that have been good and bad against the spread (ATS) as well.


Flying Under the Radar

Minnesota Timberwolves (11-7 ATS)

Don’t let their 8-10 record fool you, these guys are young and hungry and they’ve been dealing with a Michael Beasley injury. Kevin Love might be the best shooting forward in the league and rookie point guard Ricky Rubio is proving all his doubters wrong. Rubio is averaging 11 points and 9 assists a game, and the kid is still adjusting to the tempo of the NBA. Kevin Love has been on fire, averaging 25 points and nearly 14 boards a game. Minnesota has had impressive wins this year over the Spurs, at LA Clippers, and two victories against the defending champions Dallas Mavericks. With Rick Adelman coming in as head coach, this team could easily grow as the season progresses and they could make a run at a playoff spot, just give them some time and look out for these Wolves. Keep an eye on Minnesota when on the road (6-2 ATS).

Denver Nuggets (13-5 ATS)

Maybe not flying as low as Minnesota, but these Nuggets are for real and they can hang with anybody in the league. After Carmelo Anthony left for Broadway last season a lot of bettors wrote off Denver. Too bad for them! It’s an example of a classic knee jerk reaction by the public to fade a team losing a star player. Denver went on a TEAR, going 18-7 overall and 20-4-1 ATS for the remainder of the season. They’ve picked right where they left off last year, going 13-5 overall and ATS. The trade could have been Carmelo for Danilo Gallinari straight up and Denver still got the better deal by freeing up cap space. The Nuggets got rid of everyone else in that trade except for center Timofey Mozgov, they knew where the talent was. I don’t know how head coach George Karl does it but he’s always got a team that can compete with the best of them so don’t make the mistake of undervaluing this Denver team. The Nuggets own the best ATS record (8-2) on the road this sesaon

Disappointments

New York Knicks (4-14 ATS)

Disappointment could be an understatement for the New York Knicks this year. They have, despite their 7-11 record, literally two wins this year, Boston in their home opener and a six-point home win over Philadelphia. Other than that, they have beat absolute nobodies and they’ve suffered losses to some of the bottom feeders of the league in Cleveland, Milwaukee, Phoenix, Charlotte, Golden State and Toronto. I thought it was interesting in comparing what the Nuggets and Knicks have both done since the Carmelo trade: Denver has gone 33-9-1 ATS compared to the Knicks going 17-29 ATS. Last year Denver went 20-4-1 ATS matched to Knicks going 13-15 ATS. This team looks lost and they’re struggling to find their identity.

For the first time ever a Mike D’Antoni team looks boring to watch and his seat has got be getting pretty hot at Madison Square Garden. You know the impatience of New Yorkers and they’re not gonna casually sit by and watch this Knicks team become a dumpster fire. Amare Stoudemire has been in trade rumors now for Orlando’s Dwight Howard and this Carmelo experiment hasn’t been longer than a year and you can already hear the rumblings for change. With Boston down and the possible dismembering of the Orlando Magic, New Yorkers had high hopes for their squad this year. As of right now, they’re a laughing stock and if they don’t quickly turn things around you know it’s only a matter of time before we see some more changes to this Knicks team. Fading New York (1-8 ATS) at MSG has been golden this season.

Los Angeles Lakers (8-11 ATS)

While not nearly as disappointing as the Knicks, the Lakers have looked old and slow to start the year. Everyone questioned the hiring of former Cleveland coach Mike Brown when Phil Jackson stepped down. “Flo” from the Bingo hall would be considered an elite coach if she had LeBron James playing for her. The verdict is still out on Brown. The problem with the Lakers is All-Star Kobe Bryant is no longer as dominate as LeBron and he simply can’t carry the weight of the team as he’s done in the past. The Lakers know they missed out BIG on point guard Chris Paul and the Dwight Howard rumors have gone away. Until these guys pull the trigger on a BIG name I just don’t see them being of relevance this year. Despite beating their neighbor this past week, it’s safe to say they’re not even the best team in LA anymore. The Clippers have taken that title, and they’re young and only getting better. This Lakers team may have peaked a few years ago and I think they’ll continue to be a fade play this year, especially on the road (1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
01/27/2012 06:18 PM

Hoop Trends - Friday

January 27, 2012



SU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Bobcats are 12-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since February 13, 2008 with at most one day of rest when they have lost their last three games SU and ATS.


OU TREND OF THE DAY:

The Jazz are 10-0 OU (16.5 ppg) since January 23, 2005 on the road after a home loss in which their DPS was positive.

USER TREND:

The league is 1-21 Under at home with total 190 or more after playing the Knicks:


CHOICE TOP TREND:

The Knicks are 10-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since April 04, 2010 when they are playing in at least their third straight road game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
01/27/2012 06:21 PM

Friday's Tip Sheet

January 27, 2012


Friday features nearly a full slate of action in the NBA, with 26 of the 30 teams in the league set to hit the hardwood. All but one (Boston) are playing on at least one full day of rest – something that hasn’t happened too often in this cramped version of 2011-12 NBA campaign.
Below is a breakdown of two key notable matchups from a bettor’s perspective:

Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls

If nothing else, the Bucks come into the United Center knowing that the Bulls are not totally invincible on their home floor. Wednesday night, the Indiana Pacers became the first visiting team out of nine to beat the Bulls (95-90) and in the process, give other teams in the league the confidence to know it can be done!

Win, lose or cover?

The Bucks have won three consecutive road games straight up and in that span generated a perfect 3-0 record against the spread – beating New York, Miami and Houston. Overall, the Bucks won/loss and ATS records are an identical match, standing at three games under the .500 mark (7-10), but they have managed to cover four of seven on the road.

The Bulls have mounted a 16-4 record through their first 20 games this season and certainly look like a team with one goal in mind… representing the Eastern Conference in NBA Finals. Their stellar production is attributed on the defensive side of the ball – leading the league in rebounds (45.2 per game) and building a reputation as the stingiest in the league to give up points, at fewer than 86.5 per game. Their ATS record isn’t quite as elite, but nonetheless, it is a very respectable 12-8 (60%).

The numbers are stacked too high against the Bucks to come away with a victory or even a point-spread cover in this matchup. They have only notched one straight up win versus the Bulls in Chicago out of their last 11 tries and have only covered two of its last six games when they play at the United Center.

Look for the Bucks three-game road winning streak to come to an abrupt end tonight, as they will be over-powered on both sides of the ball.

Injury Notes: The Bucks will be without center, Andrew Bogut, as he sprained his left ankle this past Wednesday during the first quarter against the Rockets.

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

The Knicks take their talent to South Beach, but with a 7-11 record, the expectations for this battle fall well short of what we all anticipated prior to the start of the season. On the other side, Miami is living up to its end, producing a 13-5 record – good enough for tops in the Southeast Division.

Win, lose or cover?

The Knicks own a terrible 4-14 record against the spread – easily ranking dead last in the league. They have lost their last seven of eight straight up and against the spread and three of their last four on the road. Simply put, the Knicks just aren’t getting the job done and have been a tough team to invest money in thus far.

The Heat have been winning as of late, producing five victories in the last six games. However, they are falling well short against the spread, covering only three games in their last nine outings, but they are above the .500 mark (ATS) at home… albeit a very modest 5-4 record.

Although pro teams shouldn’t be affected from “looking ahead” to future matchups, I am sure Miami can’t help but to have their sights set on the Bulls this upcoming Sunday; which may have them taking the Knicks and their poor performance a bit lightly. Add to this, they are probably going to be without guard Dwyane Wade (see notes) and you have the makings of an upset, with the Knicks FINALLY getting it done with a point-spread cover on the road against the Heat.

Injury Notes: Dwyane Wade has been absent from the lineup for the past six games with a sprained right ankle, sore left foot and a strained calf muscle. His presence for this matchup is still in doubt. Miami is 8-1 SU this season without Wade. The Knicks' Carmelo Anthony (wrist) has been ruled 'out' for this contest and tomorrow's game against Houston as well.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
01/27/2012 06:24 PM

Red-hot Thunder visit Golden State Friday

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (15-3)

at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (6-11)


Tip-off: Friday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Oklahoma City -4.5, Total: 198

The best team in the Western Conference, Oklahoma City, looks to win its 11th game in 12 tries when it visits a Golden State team entering game four of a six-game homestand.

Most NBA teams have nightmares about guarding Thunder star SF Kevin Durant, but not many have the same anxiety Golden State does. In the past three seasons (11 games), Durant has lit up the Warriors for 33.0 PPG on 50% FG (42% threes). There’s no reason to think he won’t do it again, considering Golden State has the league’s fifth-worst scoring defense (98.5 PPG). The Warriors are 4-10 SU in their past 14 games and have dropped six of seven versus Western Conference opponents. The Thunder (7-2 ATS in past nine games) are 10-2 against the West, scoring 100.3 PPG in these dozen contests. They should also dominate the boards considering Golden State has the fourth-worst rebounding margin in the NBA (minus-3.2 RPG). The pick here is OKLAHOMA CITY to win and cover.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend siding with the Thunder:

Play On - Road favorites (OKLAHOMA CITY) - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more. (64-29 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.8%, +32.1 units. Rating = 3*).

The Over is 7-2 in the past nine Golden State games, and this FoxSheets trend also expects the OVER to occur on Friday.

Play Over - Home teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (GOLDEN STATE) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread against opponent hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread. (60-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (69%, +30.3 units. Rating = 2*).

The Thunder won their third straight game Wednesday, 101-91 over New Orleans. Durant (25.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG) had 25 points, marking his eighth straight 20-point game. He’s shooting 53% FG during this stretch, but only 23% on three-pointers (8-for-35). PG Russell Westbrook (20.4 PPG) continues to struggle this season. He had a subpar outing against the Hornets, making just 4-of-14 shots and committing seven turnovers. His assists (5.6 APG) are way down from last year’s 8.2 APG. Westbrook also shot poorly against Golden State last season (31% FG), but dished out 27 assists in the three meetings. SG James Harden (16.8 PPG) is the other big scorer on the team with 42 points on 12-of-16 shooting in his past two games. PF Serge Ibaka (6.4 RPG, 2.6 BPG) should also have a strong game against the weak interior of Golden State.

The Warriors ended their three-game skid with an impressive 101-93 win over Portland on Wednesday. PG Stephen Curry, who had been 13-of-33 shooting in two games following his return from an ankle injury, scored a season-high 32 points on 12-of-19 shooting (6-of-8 on threes) against the Blazers. Curry has torched the Thunder in his two NBA seasons, averaging 25.9 PPG on 59% FG (54% threes). Last year Curry averaged 32.3 PPG (61% FG, 55% 3-pt FG) in the three meetings with Oklahoma City. SG Monta Ellis (21.9 PPG, 7.2 APG) is looking to bounce back from a horrible shooting night against the Blazers. He scored a season-low four points on 2-of-9 FG, but he did dish out 12 assists while committing only two turnovers. Ellis’ shooting accuracy may not improve on Friday considering he has made just 40.9% FG against the Thunder in the past two seasons. PF David Lee (18.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG) scored 26 points in the win over Portland, but grabbed just five rebounds. He’ll have to be much more of a presence on the glass for Golden State to be successful.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
01/27/2012 06:25 PM

Bulls favored big over Bogut-less Bucks

MILWAUKEE BUCKS (7-10)

at CHICAGO BULLS (16-4)


Tip-off: Friday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Chicago -11.5, Total: 185

The team with the NBA’s most wins takes the floor at the United Center when the Chicago Bulls play host to the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night.

This is a game that will largely be shaped by who is not on the floor. Milwaukee’s best post player and defender Andrew Bogut (11.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG) will be out for a long time after fracturing his left ankle. For the Bulls, Luol Deng (15.9 PPG, 7.5 RPG) will likely be out of commission for this game with a wrist injury that will require surgery at some point down the road. The exciting part about this game will be watching the showdown between dynamic guards Desmond Jennings (20.2 PPG, 5.5 APG) and Derrick Rose (21.1 PPG, 8.3 APG). Jennings has been playing particularly well lately, averaging 26.0 PPG over the Bucks past five contests, in which they have gone 3-2 SU and ATS. The most encouraging betting statistic that favors Milwaukee in this game is playing on one day of rest. In those games, the Bucks are 5-1 ATS. Expecting them to win SU in this game is a bit much, but they have a great chance to cover in this contest as heavy underdogs. Play on MILWAUKEE for the ATS win.

This highly-rated FoxSheets trend also favors the Bucks on Friday:

Play Against - Home teams (CHICAGO) - vs. division opponents, off an upset loss as a home favorite. (61-31 over the last 5 seasons.) (66.3%, +26.9 units. Rating = 2*).

Jennings is a workhorse for the Bucks, playing 36.1 MPG and shouldering the primary scoring and ball-handling duties. Stephen Jackson (13.0 PPG) is the team’s second leading scorer but is wildly inconsistent. He scored 20 points in the team’s upset win over Houston on Wednesday, but zero points in 28 minutes against the Hawks the game prior to that. The main name to watch on Friday night for Milwaukee though, is Ersan Ilyasova (7.8 PPG, 7.4 APG). He has proven in his 22.4 MPG that he has the potential to develop into a solid contributor and will be thrust into a more prominent role for the rest of the season without Bogut. Look for him to have a potential breakout stretch coming up.

Although the Bulls will be without their player who spends the most time on the court, Deng (38.3 MPG), Rose (37.0 MPG) is the most integral part of the team’s offense. Like Jennings, he holds the burden of needing to be the team’s passer and scorer, something Rose has embraced in his NBA career. Without Bogut playing for the Bucks, the way for Chicago to cover is to have a strong night from its interior. Carlos Boozer (15.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG) will have the best chance for that as the Bulls’ best post player. Joakim Noah (7.8 PPG, 8.7 RPG) is also a great rebounder, and could have the opportunity to pull down a double-double in this game. Play against Chicago though, as a heavy favorite.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25157 Followers:33
01/27/2012 06:27 PM

Anthony not expected to play Friday in Miami

NEW YORK KNICKS (7-11)

at MIAMI HEAT (13-5)


Tip-off: Friday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -10, Total: 198.5

The Knicks are off to another disappointing start, but they still have a chance to win a third straight game over the Heat when the teams meet in Miami on Friday night.

These teams played in South Beach last February, just days after the Knicks’ blockbuster trade to acquire Carmelo Anthony. Anthony scored 29 in the 91-86 New York victory that night. But this year’s Knicks are struggling, and Anthony (wrist, ankle) will be sidelined on Friday night. With no starting-caliber point guard on their roster, and their most dynamic scorer out of the lineup, New York stands little chance in this one. MIAMI is the pick to win and cover, and this stat from The FoxSheets illustrates just how bad a bet the Knicks have been this year:

NEW YORK is 4-14 ATS (22.2%, -11.4 Units) in all games this season. The average score was NEW YORK 94.5, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 2*).

Anthony (23.6 PPG on 39.4% shooting, 6.9 RPG) is having his worst season, but New York still has few good alternatives on the offensive end. Fellow All-Star F Amar’e Stoudemire (17.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG) has been equally shaky, averaging just 14.6 PPG on 41.7% shooting during an eight-game stretch in which the Knicks have gone 1-7 (SU and ATS). Rookie PG Iman Shumpert (11.3 PPG, 3.4 APG), who played to rave reviews early in the season, has been atrocious during that stretch, averaging 10.3 PPG on 32.6% shooting with nearly as many turnovers (2.9 per game) as assists (3.3). Bill Walker (5.2 PPG) figures to slide into Anthony’s starting spot. He’s 2-for-9 from the field for seven points through the first two games of New York’s road trip.

The Heat are coming off back-to-back SU wins over inferior opponents, but failed to cover the spread against Cleveland or in Detroit. SG Dwyane Wade (19.6 PPG, 5.4 APG) has missed six straight games with an ankle injury, but after reportedly looking 100% healthy in Wednesday’s shoot-around in Detroit (he was held out of that game as a precaution) he seems to have a very good chance to return on Friday. However, the Heat are just 5-4 SU and 2-7 ATS with Wade in the lineup this season.

LeBron James (29.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 7.1 APG) has had plenty of big nights against the Knicks. Over the past two seasons, he averaged 29.0 PPG on 51.7% shooting, 8.9 RPG and 7.4 APG against New York. PF Chris Bosh (21.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG) has come on very strong of late, averaging 26.7 PPG on 62.9% shooting over Miami’s past six games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: