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junkmansports
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Saints at Packers

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On 09/08/2011 08:13 AM in NFL
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-4, 47)

THE STORY: A high-octane matchup between the past two Super Bowl winners kicks off the season when the New Orleans Saints visit the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night. Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to three playoff road wins en route to a Super Bowl victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers last season. The Saints' hopes of repeating were dashed with a stunning playoff loss at Seattle.

TV: NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET

ABOUT GREEN BAY (2010: 10-6, 2nd, NFC North): Rodgers capped a spectacular season by throwing for nine touchdowns and rushing for two more in four postseason games. He gets two big weapons back in RB Ryan Grant and TE Jermichael Finley, who missed much of last season due to injuries. Linebacker Clay Matthews (13.5 sacks) leads a defense that ranked second in the league with 15.0 points allowed per game. Green Bay led the NFC in sacks (47) and interceptions (24) last season.

ABOUT NEW ORLEANS (2010: 11-5, 2nd NFC South): With a running game that was decimated by injuries, QB Drew Brees tossed 33 scoring passes but had a career-high 22 interceptions last season. The Saints moved to rectify that issue by drafting former Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and signing San Diego's Darren Sproles to take the place of Reggie Bush. They also added a lot of mass on the other side of the ball in defensive tackles Shaun Rogers and Aubrayo Franklin.

LINE MOVES: The Packers opened as high as 5-point favorites but have been bet down to -4. The total opened around 47 and has seen slight movement as some books.

EXTRA POINTS:

* The similarities between Saints coach Sean Payton and Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy are striking. Both men are the same age (47) and are starting their sixth season with their respective clubs, with Payton (49-31) owning one more win than McCarthy (48-32). They were hired six days apart in January 2006 and each man is the 14th coach in the history of their franchises. Oh, and both have a Super Bowl ring as head coach.

* Saints defensive end Will Smith was suspended for the first two games of the season for using a banned diuretic in a weight-loss supplement. The suspension was originally levied by the NFL in 2008, but dragged through the courts for over two years.

* The teams haven't played since November 2008, when the Saints steamrolled Green Bay 51-29 behind 323 yards and four TD passes from Brees.

TRENDS:

- Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
- Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 1.
- Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.
- Under is 9-3 in Saints last 12 games in Week 1.
- Under is 6-1 in Packers last seven games in Week 1.

PREDICTION: Packers 37, Saints 34. Rodgers and Brees will light up the scoreboard, but the home-field advantage and a stauncher defense will allow Green Bay to barely fend off New Orleans. Not to mention they have a more reliable kicker in Mason Crosby.
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