01/24/2012 09:38 PM
Belmont and East Tenn. are not the norm with a blowout score in the second half. In fact...my observation has been that more often than not they score a little less than the first half.
With that said, you have to look at one thing....what the total was for the game in the first place. If the total was set at say 135, and the two teams score 50 points combined for the first half, by an average that means 100 points will score for the game. BUT.............one or both teams will step up the second half to improve and/or protect the lead/play catch up to get closer. My opinion is that the first half both teams are feeling eachother out (unlike Spooky with his genitals). They talk at the half with the coach to change their game plan and hopefully improve.
But then you run into two great teams that matchup well with their defenses and offenses. If you have 2 good teams that are close at the half say something like 35-32 and the total for the game was set at 145. The line for the second half is at 72 points, that means an expected total of 140 for the game....5 points under the expected total for the game. What I see is both defenses stepping up to go under for the second half. But you HAVE to know/understand how the teams are.
On the other hand, if you have two real bad teams that have no defense and the score at the half is 30-25 with a total set for the game at 130...I am going to take the over. They had a crappy first half and will step up. it makes real sense to consider what the total for the game was set at in the first place.
Usually Vegas is NOT all that far off from the line. Yes there are blow outs, or low scoring games when it was expected to be high scoring. There are a ton of variables that can factor in.
In the case of the game you are referring to, I wouldn't get near it.
There is so much to take into consideration with second half plays. I have been studying this for years, and there are several people in the forum that know my second half plays which by and large are winning picks. I could write a book on this subject since there are so many things to consider. Feel free to ask me more, I am happy to help.
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