bulldog Posts:919 Followers:9
On 01/24/2012 07:30 PM in NCAA Basketball

why do team score so many morein 2nd half in ncaa baskets

anybody have any answers here? know about close games there is fouling but seems like even games not close they score 10 to 20 more in most games in 2nd half. not this way in nba. just last night in a game which was not close and no overtime belmont and east tennessee state scored 39 in 1st half and a staggering 113 in 2nd half.
do not understand why.

jb Posts:1581 Followers:74
01/24/2012 09:38 PM

Belmont and East Tenn. are not the norm with a blowout score in the second half. In fact...my observation has been that more often than not they score a little less than the first half.
With that said, you have to look at one thing....what the total was for the game in the first place. If the total was set at say 135, and the two teams score 50 points combined for the first half, by an average that means 100 points will score for the game. BUT.............one or both teams will step up the second half to improve and/or protect the lead/play catch up to get closer. My opinion is that the first half both teams are feeling eachother out (unlike Spooky with his genitals). They talk at the half with the coach to change their game plan and hopefully improve.

But then you run into two great teams that matchup well with their defenses and offenses. If you have 2 good teams that are close at the half say something like 35-32 and the total for the game was set at 145. The line for the second half is at 72 points, that means an expected total of 140 for the game....5 points under the expected total for the game. What I see is both defenses stepping up to go under for the second half. But you HAVE to know/understand how the teams are.

On the other hand, if you have two real bad teams that have no defense and the score at the half is 30-25 with a total set for the game at 130...I am going to take the over. They had a crappy first half and will step up. it makes real sense to consider what the total for the game was set at in the first place.

Usually Vegas is NOT all that far off from the line. Yes there are blow outs, or low scoring games when it was expected to be high scoring. There are a ton of variables that can factor in.

In the case of the game you are referring to, I wouldn't get near it.

There is so much to take into consideration with second half plays. I have been studying this for years, and there are several people in the forum that know my second half plays which by and large are winning picks. I could write a book on this subject since there are so many things to consider. Feel free to ask me more, I am happy to help.

If it wasn't for sports, I'd have nothing look forward to
jb Posts:1581 Followers:74
01/24/2012 09:50 PM

Here's a prime example of what I am talking about.

I took Ga. tech +2 for the game. At the half Ga. Tech is down by 13 points. I just don't see a blowout here by Miami-Fla.
I am taking Ga. Tech -2 for the second half. If they lose by 10 points, I win the second half. In my opinion Ga. Tech will outscore Miami by 10 points in the second half.

If it wasn't for sports, I'd have nothing look forward to
jimmythegreek Posts:10957 Followers:378
01/25/2012 08:00 PM

Look at Kentucky and Georgia yesterday. 37 total points in the second half after a low scoring first half. Georgia uses virutally almost all of the shot clock and even though Kentucky can beat you several ways, they play good defense and also spend a lot of time using the shot clock while finding a high percentage shot. I expected a low scoring game and it fell under by a good 29-30 points of the posted total.

Every game but the Michigan/Purdue matchup fell way under the total on Tuesday night, and that over only made it by 4 points. Extraordinary considering in low scoring first halves as JB said depending on the matchup and the rhythm that certain teams can come out firing for the final 20:00. However if I am watching a 35-32 halftime game where the total is 145 I am going to expect the second half to be somewhere more around 77-78. Probably flirting with 79 or 80 if it's Duke, North Carolina, Baylor or a Creighton. One of the higher scoring teams are going to dictate likely a more offensive flow and as bulldog pointed out with fouling the game could go over thanks to clutch free throw shooting or simply a way to extend the game.

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bobalou Posts:5011 Followers:145
01/25/2012 09:31 PM

THANKS GUYS!!

GREAT INFO!!!!!



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aakj Posts:2684 Followers:15
01/26/2012 10:21 AM

late fouls adds up for some of the 2nd half points