jack_jones Posts:79 Followers:1
On 01/24/2012 12:24 PM in Cappers

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday!

Cleveland vs. Miami, 01/24/2012 19:30
Total: -110/+202½ Over

I believe oddsmakers have set the bar too low tonight with the total set in the Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat game. These are two of the worst defensive teams in the league in terms of points given up. Miami likes to run at a fast pace, and they'll control the tempo at home.

The Heat are scoring 105.4 points/game on the season and allowing 97.5 points/game. They have been lighting up the scoreboard at home, scoring 108.4 points/game in Miami. Cleveland gives up 99.0 points/game this season, so they'll have their hands full in trying to slow down Lebron and company.

The OVER is 5-0 in Cleveland's last 5 games overall. They have played little to no defense in their last three games. The Cavs gave up 105 to Golden State, 114 to Chicago and 121 to Atlanta. That's an average of 113.3 points/game during this span. That doesn't bode well for the Cavaliers considering they'll be facing the league's highest-scoring team.

Miami is a perfect 10-0 to the OVER in their last 10 games as a home favorite over 12.5 points or more. I'm seeing an average combined score of 210.9 points/game in this spot. The Heat are 12-3 to the OVER in their last 15 home games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game. The OVER is 11-1 in Cavaliers last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Bet the OVER in this game Tuesday.

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