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Denver vs. Milwaukee, 01/17/2012 20:00
Point Spread: +3/-105 Milwaukee
NBA FREE PICK: Milwaukee Bucks +3
It might seem like easy money to lay the 3-points on the Nuggets at Milwaukee tonight, but I think it's the Bucks who have the edge in this matchup. Milwaukee comes in off a 82-94 loss at Philadelphia yesterday, but that game was closer than the final score leads on. In fact, I believe it has added great value to the Bucks game tonight.
Milwaukee is a perfect 4-0 at home this season, which includes a 106-103 win over San Antonio as a 2-point underdog. On the flip side, the Bucks have lost all 8 of their road games. The fact that they have played twice as many road games, has the public thinking poorly of this team. That perception allows oddsmakers to list the Bucks as a small underdog at home, even if they think they will win the game outright. Knowing that the public will be quick to jump on the Nuggets, if they really thought Denver was going to win this game they would likely have them favored by more than 3-points.
This isn't a guaranteed system by any means, but one that I have had some success with. There are some valuable trends that add even more value to this play.
Milwaukee is 11-2 ATS in home games off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, while Denver is just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. BET THE BUCKS +3