Forgot Password?
Back
Pfile Nickname cnotes
  • Posts:24036
  • Followers:30
01/18/2012 10:22 PM
Total Talk - Championships

January 17, 2012


Playoff Recap

The ‘over’ has posted a 6-2 mark through the first eight playoff games and it could easily be 7-1 if the Houston-Baltimore matchup didn’t come to a screeching halt in the second-half. After seeing 30 points posted in the first 30 minutes, the pair combined for three points in the final two quarters.

While that outcome was tough to stomach for some ‘over’ bettors, the toughest beat of the weekend occurred in the Giants-Packers battle. With just seconds left in the first-half, New York added a Hail Mary touchdown as time expired to take a 20-10 lead over Green Bay at the break. Most shops had the first-half total at 27 ½ points.

Similar to the game results, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the first-half of this year's postseason, while the ‘under’ has produced a 5-3 record in the second-half. And, that number could be 6-2 to the ‘under’ if the Saints and 49ers didn’t explode for a 34-point fourth quarter, 28 of them coming in the final four minutes. If San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith doesn’t play hero and stays inbounds instead of scoring (the smart play), you might’ve seen three points instead of 21.

Including the second round results, the ‘under’ stands at 122-119-5 (51%) on the season.

Championship History

Let’s preface this section by saying that past playoff history has meant absolutely nothing this year. The Wild Card and Divisional Playoffs used to trend toward the ‘under’ and we’ve seen nothing but shootouts. Ironically, the Championship round has been geared towards high-scoring affairs. Does that mean we should expect some slugfests this weekend?

Looking at the below tables, you’ll notice that the ‘over’ has gone 15-5 (75%) in the last 20 conference title games.


AFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY
Year Result Total
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, OVER
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, OVER
2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, OVER
2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, UNDER
2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, OVER
2005-2006 Pittsburgh 34 @ Denver 17 41, OVER
2004-2005 New England 41 @ Pittsburgh 27 35, OVER
2003-2004 New England 24 vs. Indianapolis 14 43, UNDER
2002-2003 Oakland 41 vs. Tennessee 24 47, OVER
2001-2002 New England 24 @ Pittsburgh 17 37, OVER

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY
Year Result Total
2010-2011 Green Bay 21 @ Chicago 14 42, UNDER
2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 54, OVER
2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, OVER
2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 @ Green Bay 20 41, OVER
2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, OVER
2005-2006 Seattle 34 vs. Carolina 14 43.5, OVER
2004-2005 Philadelphia 27 vs. Atlanta 10 37.5, UNDER
2003-2004 Carolina 14 @ Philadelphia 3 36.5, UNDER
2002-2003 Tampa Bay 27 @ Philadelphia 10 34, OVER
2001-2002 St. Louis 29 vs. Philadelphia 24 49, OVER


AFC Championship – Baltimore at New England

Line Movement: Depending where you play, this game is hovering between 50 and 51 points, with the majority of betting shops holding steady at 50.5.

Quick Analysis: Assuming both teams can put up 24 points and you grab a number of 50.5, you got yourself a clear-cut ‘over’ winner, right? It’s simple handicapping and let's be honest, it’s real tough to argue against the facts. New England’s offense has put up 30-plus points in 13 of its 17 games, including 45 gainst Denver last week. And before you say Baltimore’s defense is great, let’s delve into those facts too. We understand the Ravens were ranked third in both points (16.6) and yards per game (288), but they haven’t face a dynamic offense or signal caller like Tom Brady all year. The last time Baltimore faced a legit QB, Philip Rivers and the Chargers dropped 34 on the board, rather easily too.

The other side of the total equation is Baltimore, who’s been anything been consistent on offense this season. Last week, bettors watched the Ravens’ attack put up 227 total yards of offense, yet they did score 20 points albeit with two short tracks. Plus the club came up empty with a first-and-goal from the nine-yard line too. The Patriots’ defense is coming off their second-best effort of the season last week when it held Denver to 10 points. Prior to stifling the one-dimensional Broncos, the New England allowed 20 or more points to quarterbacks named Young, Orlovsky, Grossman, Tebow, Moore, Fitzpatrick. Like a lot of other pundits, I’m not sold on Joe Flacco but he’s got weapons and I have to believe he does just as good as the aforementioned QBs.

Trends: Baltimore has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 on the road, while New England has seen the ‘over’ go 6-3 at Gillette Stadium. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the past four meetings between the pair.

Playoff History: The Patriots have played in five conference title games under the Belichick-Brady regime and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2, but the two ‘under’ tickets did take place in Foxborough. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has been in eight playoff games and the 'under' has gone 5-3.

NFC Championship – New York Giants at San Francisco

Line Movement: Unlike the first affair set for next Sunday, this ‘over/under’ has received a ton of interest and it’s safe to say that the oddsmakers put out a bad line. The opener came out at 45 and has since dropped to 42, with a few major offshore outfits adding the hook (42.5).

Quick Analysis: The 49ers defeated the Giants 27-20 in Week 10 at home and the combined 47 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 42, which is the same number as this week’s rematch. The game in mid-November started with five field goals and ended with four touchdowns, three coming in the final quarter. It’s hard to see the Giants (37) and 49ers (36) putting up similar numbers like they did in the Divisional Playoff round, especially with expected precipitation in the Bay Area. Also, defense should play a big factor in the second encounter. Since getting exposed by the Saints (49), Packers (38) and Cowboys (34), the Giants’ defense has allowed an average of 14.6 PPG the last five weeks, which includes the 20 they allowed to the league's best offense in Green Bay last Sunday. San Francisco did allow New Orleans to drop 32 on the scoreboard last Saturday, which was an anomaly. During the regular season, the 49ers defense (13.2 PPG) was impossible to score on at home, with six opponents being held to 17 points or less.

Trends: The Giants saw the ‘over’ go 6-3 on the road, while the 49ers have watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 at home.

Playoff History: Prior to last week’s ‘over’ ticket, Eli Manning watched the ‘under’ go 7-1 in his first eight postseason games. These teams squared off in the playoffs of the 2002 season and San Francisco rallied past New York for a 39-38 victory.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
0 0
Post Comment
Pfile Nickname cnotes
  • Posts:24036
  • Followers:30
01/19/2012 11:18 PM
Caesars Palace Sports Book Weekly Update

Caesars Palace Senior Race and Sports Book Analyst Todd Fuhrman made another trip to the studios at DonBest.com to talk about the latest sports wagering topics.

There is only one major focus this week, of course, as it is Championship weekend in the National Football League.

First up on Sunday will be the AFC Championship game between the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. Currently on the Don Best odds screen at Caesars, the Pats are favored by a touchdown and the total is 49½.

Something is a little off with that spread, however, and Fuhrman is quick to point that out. The Ravens may have been only about a 4-point underdog in the regular season in this same situation. Factor in Tom Brady’s dismantling of the Denver Broncos last week along with Baltimore’s struggle against the underrated Houston Texans and that all adds up to an inflated number.

New England is also working against a pretty strong postseason trend. Teams that score 40 or more points in the playoffs are 3-19 against the spread the following week. Bettors only have to look to last week to find evidence when the New Orleans Saints fell to the 49ers.

Speaking of San Francisco, they will be playing host to the New York Giants at Candlestick Park for the NFC Championship. Right now the total is 42, down from 45, with the Niners -2½.

While anything can happen in the world of sports and sports betting, do not count on that number moving to San Fran -3. If it does move, count on it swinging in favor of the Giants.

Also for this week’s matchup in the NFC, look for rain to be in the forecast which could cause some sloppy footing.

Plenty of chatter is afloat in Vegas about big futures money on the G-Men to win it all but Fuhrman suggests that Caesars will not be heavily affected with that outcome. That being said, New York is last on their list in terms of which team they’re rooting for.

On the flip side of that list, patrons may catch the Senior Analyst rocking a loud purple jersey.

Finally, it’s never too early to look ahead to the future and Caesars already has odds out for next year’s Super Bowl. The Patriots and Green Bay Packers are co-favorites at 7/1 while both Fuhrman and Kenny White had the same idea for a sleeper choice, the Houston Texans at 10/1.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
0 0
Post Comment
Pfile Nickname cnotes
  • Posts:24036
  • Followers:30
01/19/2012 11:23 PM
Look for a Super Bowl rematch in Indianapolis

January 18, 2012


Get ready for the rematch. The Super Bowl rematch, not the Harbaugh coaching family reunion.

For a Super Bowl redux to happen, the New York Giants will need another huge road win, this time at San Francisco. And when they get it Sunday, will they face the Baltimore Ravens, who routed them in the 2001 Super Bowl? Or New England, which had its perfect record shattered by the Giants in the big game four years ago?

Read on for that one.

New York Giants (plus 2 1-2) at San Francisco

It's hard to say who had the more impressive victory last weekend. The Giants (11-7) outplayed, outcoached and outworked the defending champion Packers at Lambeau Field, where Green Bay hadn't lost since early last season. The 49ers showed more passing offense than anyone imagined and won a shootout with one of the league's most prolific offenses, the Saints.

New York forced four turnovers, one fewer than San Francisco, a major factor in their games.

``We always talk about the turnover margin and, of course, that was huge,'' Giants coach Tom Coughlin said. ``We were plus-3. And we felt very much so for a team that only had 14 turnovers over the course of the entire season, that was exceptional. They were a team with plus-24 and really had played from the other side of it all year long.''

The 49ers (14-3) have played from the positive side of it all season, too. They were plus-28, with a miniscule 10 giveaways during the regular season.

So whoever protects the ball will move closer to that trip to Indianapolis.

These rivals have a long history of postseason meetings, including New York's 15-13 win in 1990. Most memorable might be San Francisco's wild 39-38 victory nine years ago after which the league apologized to the Giants for a botched officiating call on the last play.

Their most recent matchup was the 49ers' 27-20 win at Candlestick Park on Nov. 13, the first of four straight losses for the Giants. New York turned it around by winning three of its last four regular-season games to take the NFC East and has gotten healthy.

``I think it probably surprised a lot of people that the Giants and the 49ers are in the NFC championship game,'' Niners first-year coach Jim Harbaugh said. ``In October and November and September, we were trying to win the next game. That's where our focus was.''

The Giants nearly pulled out that November game, and they are vastly improved now. With more balance than the 49ers can muster, they will head to Indy.

GIANTS, 24-13

Baltimore (plus 7 1-2) at New England

The AFC title game shapes up as a classic matchup of imposing offense and immovable defense. In the current NFL atmosphere, with all kinds of points and yardage records being set, the offense has had the edge.

That hardly means the Ravens are incapable of going to Foxborough and repeating their playoff victory there in 2010. That game was decided early when Ray Rice burst through a hole the size of Cape Cod and sprinted 83 yards for a touchdown on Baltimore's first offensive play. The Ravens quickly got another TD, making it 14-0 just five minutes in, and New England never got back in it.

Baltimore didn't get to the Super Bowl that year and has not despite making the playoffs in each of John Harbaugh's four seasons as coach. Harbaugh likes the fact that as a wild card the last three years, the Ravens (13-4) are no strangers to road playoff games.

``It helps, just by the fact that we've done it,'' Harbaugh said. ``Most of our team has been there before, and then those young guys can relate to the older guys, and the older guys can share some wisdom. But it's not going to impact necessarily this game, except to the extent that our guys have been there before and it's certainly not going to be anything new for them. And that's a good thing.''

A very good thing is the way Tom Brady played this season for New England (14-3). He comes off a six-touchdown passing performance against Denver, but comparing the Broncos' defense to Baltimore's is ludicrous.

Still, Brady has a versatile cast, led by All-Pros at tight end (Rob Gronkowski) and receiver (Wes Welker), and his offensive line is solid - a key against Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. The Patriots' defensive weakness is against the pass, not an area the Ravens necessarily excel at.

So look for Giants-Patriots II in the Super Bowl.

PATRIOTS, 27-16

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
0 0
Post Comment
Pfile Nickname cnotes
  • Posts:24036
  • Followers:30
01/19/2012 11:25 PM
Jim, John Harbaugh a win away from Super Bowl

January 18, 2012

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) - When addressing his 49ers this week, Jim Harbaugh can point to the monumental miss in his 15-year NFL career: He came a last-gasp pass short of making the Super Bowl. He still has an out-of-whack right pinkie and noticeable hitch in his step to show for his time in the league.

His big brother, John, never played at football's highest level and instead might motivate his Baltimore Ravens with examples of sacrifices by military members in real-life conflicts.

The Harbaughs, separated in age by all of 15 months, took different paths to the doorstep of the Super Bowl. Now, they're sparking talk of a ``Superbaugh.''

Baltimore plays at New England in Sunday's first game for the AFC title, then San Francisco hosts the New York Giants for the NFC crown. Their parents, Jack and Jackie, plan to watch on television from home in Wisconsin.

While the brothers have spoken during the playoffs, Jim is quick to point out they are each handling business their own way.

``Each situation is different,'' he said. ``There are some similarities, there are some differences. Their situation is similar in some ways, and different in others. We're each going to handle it accordingly.''

John Harbaugh began at the lowest rung of coaching and worked his way up slowly, a former college defensive back at Miami of Ohio whose playing career ended there. He has guided the Ravens' staunch, playmaking defense.

Jim Harbaugh was a star college quarterback at Michigan, a first-round draft pick and eventual Pro Bowler who turned to coaching much later. His thick offensive playbook featuring a version of the West Coast offense can be overwhelming, and Harbaugh has been known to mix in some twists, such as using David Akers to throw a pass on a fake field goal or throwing to a nose tackle-turned part-time fullback.

In last Saturday's 36-32 last-second win against Drew Brees and the favored Saints, Harbaugh even used star defensive tackle Justin Smith for a few plays on offense.

He gets a kick out of the game-planning process and throwing in some new wrinkles each week.

``Really enjoyable. Yeah, it's a fun part of the job, and I think the thing that makes it fun is that the players are really stimulated by that,'' Jim Harbaugh said. ``And we've got smart guys that they want it, they almost need it. And really keeps them on a razor's edge.''

Throughout the season, the Harbaughs talk regularly to share ideas, yet suddenly are in scouting mode with the potential for another history-making matchup next month in Indianapolis. On Thanksgiving night, they became the first brothers to face each other as NFL head coaches.

``It's pretty neat. I'm proud of him,'' John Harbaugh said. ``He's proud of what we're doing.''

Jim considers himself a Ravens fan.

``Had a chance to watch his game, and found myself, as always, pulling very hard for him and his team. Very happy for his success,'' Jim said. ``(I watch) as a brother, as a fan of his team, and also as a possible opponent, yes.''

One thing neither likes during game week is anything they consider nonsense - a distraction to the one and only goal of a victory.

The Harbaughs can be dismissive. They're known to sneer or blow off questions altogether when it comes to injuries or any other tidbit that might give an opponent insight or a possible advantage - perceived or otherwise.

Jim Harbaugh had a roster full of playoff first-timers going into last Saturday's win.

His message: ``Don't overcook it.'' Translation: Stick with what got you here.

John Harbaugh has a postseason-tested roster of men who have been in the big games before. Ray Lewis is still around from the 2001 Super Bowl champion team.

Both possess a laser-like football focus and find unique ways to motivate.

``When he gets fired up, it's fire and brimstone,'' Ravens linebacker Jarret Johnson said of John. ``But for the most part, he reads a lot. He draws a lot from the military. We get a lot of poetry. He uses a lot of different analogies and stuff. I would say he's all over the place. He's a rah-rah guy when he needs to be, and he's also very subtle. Maybe a Shakespeare speech, something like that. He draws inspiration from everywhere.''

Jim has his players buying into a blue-collar mentality, and there are actual blue-collar shirts to fit the theme. Defensive line coach Jim Tomsula wears his regularly around team headquarters.

``It's really been fun to see the sayings that have really grabbed on from the blue-collar aspect,'' Akers said. ``A lot of this country is built on the blue-collar idea.''

Jim Harbaugh always has a story to share. From the one about his uncles who untucked their shirts after a long day's work - he now does the same after each victory - to his own missed opportunity at a Super Bowl, one he figured surely would come again.

In the AFC championship game after the 1995 season, the Colts had the ball on the Steelers 29 on third-and-1, but Harbaugh's Hail Mary throw to the end zone went through Aaron Bailey's hands as time expired. Pittsburgh won, 20-16.

``He just tells us to give it all we have, give it all we've got, go out there and just fight, just fight as a team,'' running back Frank Gore said. ``Think about all the bad times we had here and now we have this opportunity and go take advantage of it. That's what we're trying to do.''

If Jim Harbaugh wins Sunday, he'll be headed back to a city where he is still loved despite not coming through that day. His sister, Joani Crean - whose husband coaches at Indiana - still regularly gets stopped by strangers when she travels to Indianapolis with their stories about her brother, Jim.

Both Harbaughs recall their youths to give examples of what they learned from their coaching father, Jack.

During training camp, John Harbaugh talked about sharing one of those tales with his team.

``The guys laughed. They've heard it before, but when you say, `This is something my dad used to tell me,' boom, it disarms them a little bit. They appreciate it,'' he said.

John also took part in an NFL-USO coaches tour of the Persian Gulf in 2009 and occasionally calls on military personnel to address the team after practice. In turn, in 2010 he spoke to the Army's 1st Cavalry and attended its team-building symposium.

``Those guys have so much at stake. It's hard for us to even look at it and say it's the same, but when they teach their troops, they make sports analogies all the time,'' Harbaugh said. ``I think that's ironic, because we make military analogies all the time.''

His brother has his own methods - and the 49ers have been all in since the start. San Francisco has gone from a 6-10 team last season, one that missed the playoffs for the eighth straight season, to a 14-3 team one win from playing for football's biggest prize.

He is rah-rah to the core. At the same time, he has been known to sleep at team headquarters while ``honkering down'' as he calls it. Harbaugh orders pizza to team headquarters as he and his staff spend hours in the film room studying opponents.

Players walk around wearing T-shirts with Harbaugh's catchphrase ``Who's got it better than us? No-body!'' That one came from his father.

``I'll pick up an article or a news story and you see something in there I'll think, `Hah, where have I heard that?''' said Jack Harbaugh, whose credo was born in his tiny hometown of Crestline, Ohio. ``I was talking to my cousin, Mike Gottfried .. and he said: `You know, it's amazing. I can recall that in Crestline back in the early 1950s.' ... Mike says: `You know what? I can recall that.' We'd be walking out to play. Or we'd be going home at night and we'd look at each other say, `Who's got it better than us? Noooo-body!' And that was a great life.''

Life will be much sweeter for the close-knit Harbaughs if each brother holds up his end of the bargain Sunday. Then, it will be reunion time in Indy with the world watching.

----

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
0 0
Post Comment
Pfile Nickname cnotes
  • Posts:24036
  • Followers:30
01/19/2012 11:27 PM
Giants vs. 49ers: matchups

January 19, 2012


Matchups for the NFC championship game Sunday between the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers at Candlestick Park:

When the Giants have the ball

The Giants scored 394 points and were extremely efficient down the stretch to win the NFC East. They've continued that in the playoffs, mixing in big plays with ball security, getting huge contributions from WRs Hakeem Nicks (88), Victor Cruz (80) and Mario Manningham (82), and just enough rushing from Ahmad Bradshaw (44) and Brandon Jacobs (27).

Eli Manning (10) makes it all work, and has been brilliant for much of the season, even as the Giants (11-7) struggled to get into the postseason. Manning's calm demeanor rubs off on his teammates, and he's become particularly adept on third downs and in fourth quarters. He set an NFL regular-season record with 15 touchdown passes in the fourth period. Manning has been the definition of clutch.

He's also gotten more comfortable with his offensive line, led by G Chris Snee (76) and T David Diehl (66). That line was leaky midway through the schedule, but improved when everyone got healthy.

Coach Tom Coughlin prefers to use the ground game, especially the power run, to set up passes. While Bradshaw and Jacobs have been decent and sporadically broke some long gains, the Giants have profited most on Manning's arm. Look for them to attempt doing so again because the 49ers (14-3) have the league's best run defense, led by All-Pros DT Justin Smith (94), LBs NaVorro Bowman (53) and Patrick Willis (52), the most dynamic defender in this game.

Having seen how well New Orleans did with TE Jimmy Graham last week, New York will get Jake Ballard (85) involved, particularly if he can keep one of the linebackers or safeties occupied. That would force the 49ers to have single coverage on one of the Giants' dangerous wideouts, and all three have shown breakaway ability in such situations.

Still, the Niners, who allowed an NFC-low 229 points, have strong coverage backs in CB Carlos Rodgers (22) and S Dashon Goldson (38), each of whom had six interceptions. San Francisco also might be the best tackling team in the NFL, and S Donte Whitner's (31) hit on Pierre Thomas last week displayed that.

Thanks to rookie Aldon Smith (99) and Justin Smith up front and LB Ahmad Brooks (55) in a turnaround season, the 49ers have a dangerous pass rush. Watch for Aldon Smith on edge rushes and some stunts, and for Justin Smith just about anywhere.

When the 49ers have the ball

If the Niners establish the run with Frank Gore (21), who rushed for 1,211 yards and eight TDs, and can spring backup Kendall Hunter (32) a few times, it will make QB Alex Smith (11) more effective. In by far the best season of his seven-year career, Smith has avoided turnovers, made more precise throws than ever and been patient. He also can use his legs, as he showed with that masterful sweep for a 28-yard TD against the Saints.

Playing it smart on offense is San Francisco's style - out of necessity and thanks to the coaching acumen of Jim Harbaugh. The receiving corps, other than TE Vernon Davis (85), is mediocre. Davis is a special talent and was a game-breaker against New Orleans, bringing himself to tears. If he is able to bring New York's secondary to tears, the Niners will be in great shape.

But safeties Antrel Rolle (26) and Kenny Phillips (21) have shown better coverage skills in the last month than at any previous time, and we might even see CB Corey Webster (23) covering Davis at times.

Smith's O-line is as good as Manning's, with T Joe Staley (74) and C Jonathan Goodwin (59) the standouts. They must neutralize the Giants' potentially overpowering pass rush led by All-Pro DE Jason Pierre-Paul (90), DEs Justin Tuck (91) and Osi Umenyiora (72), and revitalized LB Michael Boley (59). If backup TE Delanie Walker (46) can go after breaking his jaw - he says he will play - it will help the passing game immensely.

The Giants stumbled often in pass coverage for much of the season, but came on in recent weeks against the likes of Tony Romo, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. If Alex Smith has to put up the ball 35 or more times, New York could be in good position to make its second Super Bowl in four years.

Special Teams

The 49ers have an All-Pro kicker in David Akers (2) and punter in Andy Lee (4). Need we say more about their kicking game?

Akers set a league mark with 44 field goals, in part because San Francisco bogged down in the red zone too much. He also has kept his range despite being in his 13th season.

The Niners return game isn't spectacular, although the inconsistent Ted Ginn Jr., who is slowed by a right knee problem, did break two returns for scores. Their coverage squads are very strong.

Lawrence Tynes (9) has made almost as many clutch field goals as Akers, and his kickoffs have improved recently. Steve Weatherford (5) has been terrific in the second half of the season as the punter.

Don't look for the Giants to break many long runbacks; they've gotten little production from anyone they've tried at it. More significantly, they didn't give up any TDs on returns.

Coaching

It's been perplexing for months that many Giants fans were eager for a coaching change, especially when the team hit the meat of the schedule and lost four straight. Coughlin stayed the course, never panicked, made sure his players kept their focus and look where he has them now. For the last four weeks, the Giants have been perfectly prepared, resourceful and more energetic than their opponents.

Harbaugh's first pro season as a head coach has been wildly successful. He changed the attitude in a once-divisive locker room, made his players believe in themselves, and provided a steady presence for the likes of Alex Smith, Davis and WR Michael Crabtree (15). He has a difficult chore coaching against a master such as Coughlin, but Harbaugh certainly won't back down.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
0 0
Post Comment
Pfile Nickname cnotes
  • Posts:24036
  • Followers:30
01/22/2012 01:34 PM
Total Talk - Championships

January 22, 2012

Playoff Recap
The ‘over’ has posted a 6-2 mark through the first eight playoff games and it could easily be 7-1 if the Houston-Baltimore matchup didn’t come to a screeching halt in the second-half. After seeing 30 points posted in the first 30 minutes, the pair combined for three points in the final two quarters.

While that outcome was tough to stomach for some ‘over’ bettors, the toughest beat of the weekend occurred in the Giants-Packers battle. With just seconds left in the first-half, New York added a Hail Mary touchdown as time expired to take a 20-10 lead over Green Bay at the break. Most shops had the first-half total at 27 ½ points.

Similar to the game results, the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the first-half of this year's postseason, while the ‘under’ has produced a 5-3 record in the second-half. And, that number could be 6-2 to the ‘under’ if the Saints and 49ers didn’t explode for a 34-point fourth quarter, 28 of them coming in the final four minutes. If San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith doesn’t play hero and stays inbounds instead of scoring (the smart play), you might’ve seen three points instead of 21.

Including the second round results, the ‘under’ stands at 122-119-5 (51%) on the season.

Championship History

Let’s preface this section by saying that past playoff history has meant absolutely nothing this year. The Wild Card and Divisional Playoffs used to trend toward the ‘under’ and we’ve seen nothing but shootouts. Ironically, the Championship round has been geared towards high-scoring affairs. Does that mean we should expect some slugfests this weekend?

Looking at the below tables, you’ll notice that the ‘over’ has gone 15-5 (75%) in the last 20 conference title games.


AFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY
Year Result Total
2010-2011 Pittsburgh 24 vs. N.Y. Jets 19 38, OVER
2009-2010 Indianapolis 30 vs. N.Y. Jets 17 40, OVER
2008-2009 Pittsburgh 23 vs. Baltimore 14 35, OVER
2007-2008 New England 21 vs. San Diego 12 48, UNDER
2006-2007 Indianapolis 38 vs. New England 34 47, OVER
2005-2006 Pittsburgh 34 @ Denver 17 41, OVER
2004-2005 New England 41 @ Pittsburgh 27 35, OVER
2003-2004 New England 24 vs. Indianapolis 14 43, UNDER
2002-2003 Oakland 41 vs. Tennessee 24 47, OVER
2001-2002 New England 24 @ Pittsburgh 17 37, OVER

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP OVER-UNDER HISTORY
Year Result Total
2010-2011 Green Bay 21 @ Chicago 14 42, UNDER
2009-2010 New Orleans 31 vs. Minnesota 28 54, OVER
2008-2009 Arizona 32 vs. Philadelphia 25 47, OVER
2007-2008 N.Y. Giants 23 @ Green Bay 20 41, OVER
2006-2007 Chicago 34 vs. New Orleans 14 42.5, OVER
2005-2006 Seattle 34 vs. Carolina 14 43.5, OVER
2004-2005 Philadelphia 27 vs. Atlanta 10 37.5, UNDER
2003-2004 Carolina 14 @ Philadelphia 3 36.5, UNDER
2002-2003 Tampa Bay 27 @ Philadelphia 10 34, OVER
2001-2002 St. Louis 29 vs. Philadelphia 24 49, OVER


AFC Championship – Baltimore at New England

Line Movement: Depending where you play, this game is hovering between 50 and 51 points, with the majority of betting shops holding steady at 50.5.

Quick Analysis: Assuming both teams can put up 24 points and you grab a number of 50.5, you got yourself a clear-cut ‘over’ winner, right? It’s simple handicapping and let's be honest, it’s real tough to argue against the facts. New England’s offense has put up 30-plus points in 13 of its 17 games, including 45 gainst Denver last week. And before you say Baltimore’s defense is great, let’s delve into those facts too. We understand the Ravens were ranked third in both points (16.6) and yards per game (288), but they haven’t face a dynamic offense or signal caller like Tom Brady all year. The last time Baltimore faced a legit QB, Philip Rivers and the Chargers dropped 34 on the board, rather easily too.

The other side of the total equation is Baltimore, who’s been anything been consistent on offense this season. Last week, bettors watched the Ravens’ attack put up 227 total yards of offense, yet they did score 20 points albeit with two short tracks. Plus the club came up empty with a first-and-goal from the nine-yard line too. The Patriots’ defense is coming off their second-best effort of the season last week when it held Denver to 10 points. Prior to stifling the one-dimensional Broncos, the New England allowed 20 or more points to quarterbacks named Young, Orlovsky, Grossman, Tebow, Moore, Fitzpatrick. Like a lot of other pundits, I’m not sold on Joe Flacco but he’s got weapons and I have to believe he does just as good as the aforementioned QBs.

Trends: Baltimore has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 on the road, while New England has seen the ‘over’ go 6-3 at Gillette Stadium. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the past four meetings between the pair.

Playoff History: The Patriots have played in five conference title games under the Belichick-Brady regime and the ‘over’ has gone 3-2, but the two ‘under’ tickets did take place in Foxborough. Baltimore coach John Harbaugh has been in eight playoff games and the 'under' has gone 5-3.

NFC Championship – New York Giants at San Francisco

Line Movement: Unlike the first affair set for next Sunday, this ‘over/under’ has received a ton of interest and it’s safe to say that the oddsmakers put out a bad line. The opener came out at 45 and has since dropped to 42, with a few major offshore outfits adding the hook (42.5).

Quick Analysis: The 49ers defeated the Giants 27-20 in Week 10 at home and the combined 47 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 42, which is the same number as this week’s rematch. The game in mid-November started with five field goals and ended with four touchdowns, three coming in the final quarter. It’s hard to see the Giants (37) and 49ers (36) putting up similar numbers like they did in the Divisional Playoff round, especially with expected precipitation in the Bay Area. Also, defense should play a big factor in the second encounter. Since getting exposed by the Saints (49), Packers (38) and Cowboys (34), the Giants’ defense has allowed an average of 14.6 PPG the last five weeks, which includes the 20 they allowed to the league's best offense in Green Bay last Sunday. San Francisco did allow New Orleans to drop 32 on the scoreboard last Saturday, which was an anomaly. During the regular season, the 49ers defense (13.2 PPG) was impossible to score on at home, with six opponents being held to 17 points or less.

Trends: The Giants saw the ‘over’ go 6-3 on the road, while the 49ers have watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 at home.

Playoff History: Prior to last week’s ‘over’ ticket, Eli Manning watched the ‘under’ go 7-1 in his first eight postseason games. These teams squared off in the playoffs of the 2002 season and San Francisco rallied past New York for a 39-38 victory.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
0 0
Post Comment
Pfile Nickname cnotes
  • Posts:24036
  • Followers:30
01/22/2012 01:36 PM
Las Vegas Money Moves

January 20, 2012

It may have taken a few days, but many bettors finally thought logically after last week’s playoff results had sunk in. The initial line posted on the Patriots was somewhat inflated, a number that began perhaps a point too high.
Las Vegas sports books -- some reluctantly -- opened the Patriots as 7-point favorites over the Ravens and saw an immediate reaction by bettors. The number jumped to -7 ½, which was caused by the performances from each team last weekend.

The Patriots steam rolled the Broncos 45-10, covering easily, while the Ravens appeared to struggle against the T.J. Yates led Texans and didn’t cover in their 20-14 victory.

“We went over all the ratings and came up with Patriots minus-6 initially,” said LVH Super Book executive director Jay Kornegay who was one of the first to post the line in town, “but we felt we’d test the waters a little bit with a key number and see where it drove us early on and posted it -7.“

“Our first few bets came in on the Patriots and pushed the number quickly to -7 ½, so we were somewhat justified by the starting number.”

But Kornegay’s initial thought is proving to be correct as the proper price because large Ravens money is starting to come in and has pushed almost every book back to -7 flat.

What we saw last is starting to wear off in the minds of most bettors as they go back to the basics of looking at the straight facts of each squad. What are each team’s strengths and weaknesses?

The Patriots have one of the league’s worst defenses and have blown away mediocre teams all season. Their two toughest opponents, the Giants and Steelers, both beat the Patriots and are the only teams they faced that ended up with winning records.

We just saw a team equal to the Patriots with offensive dominance and similar weaknesses on defense, the Packers, get manhandled at home by the Giants. Defense is proving to be a key cog in football once again, despite being proved wrong all season by dominant offenses rolling through the season with ease.

Tom Brady is one of the elite quarterbacks in the league, but teams that can get pressure on him fare very well and the Ravens put pressure on every quarterback they face.

The big question with your Ravens bet is how much of quarterback Joe Flacco you can stomach. In most of Baltimore’s winning occasions, Flacco has been taken out of the equation. It was only two years ago that the Ravens beat the Patriots 33-14 in a playoff game at Foxboro where Flacco only completed four passes for 34 yards. Running back Ray Rice jumped out big early on and carried the Ravens to a 24-0 lead and the game was history.

For the Ravens to have success this week, most believe Rice will have to be the driving force on offense again and you’ll have to hope you’re not relying on Flacco to make big third-down conversions. Flacco’s own teammate, Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed, even said Flacco gets rattled when pressured which isn’t the type of headline material that the supposed leader of your offense needs to be reading the week before his biggest game of the year.

Ticket counts that include mostly parlays still have the Patriots being bet at a 3-to-2 ratio. However, the straight bet wagers, those that decide when the line will be moved, currently has a slight lean towards the Ravens which means we could be seeing -6 ½ very soon and eventually -6, which was Kornegay’s initial rating.

You may ask why Kornegay didn’t post his initial thought and it’s a pretty simple answer: you have to adjust and adapt to what’s going on. No matter how strong a personal rating may be, the bookmaker has to know his betting public, what the market will dictate and also respect the key numbers.

Had Kornegay opened the game -6, it would have been rapidly bet up to -7 ½ without getting any Ravens money. When/if the line comes down, then he’ll have the majority of his bets on the underdog at +6 ½ with most of the favorite money at -7. 90% of the action on this game will come Saturday and Sunday. If the game lands Patriots winning by 7, he won’t be stung as much as he would have been had he opened with his first inkling.

Weather doesn’t figure to play a factor in Foxboro Sunday with minimal winds and temperatures expected in the in the mid thirties, but it’s a much different story in San Francisco where we can expect rain. It’s raining right now, will be tomorrow and then some more on Sunday. Whether or not it’s an edge is yet to be seen, but Jim Harbaugh has team practicing in the conditions.

The 49ers opened Pick ’em last Sunday against the Giants and was immediately bet all the way up to -2 ½ at the LVH Super Book within an hour. The line hasn’t changed all week, despite most of the small money overwhelmingly coming in on the Giants.

Wynn Resort opened the 49ers -1, just a little after the LVH did, and were bet up to -2 ½ over the same span, but on Thursday they dropped the game down to -2.

The two teams met in Week 10 at San Francisco with the 49ers winning 27-20 as 4-point favorites. Much like this week, the Giants were coming off their biggest win of the year when they knocked off the Patriots 24-20 in Week 9 at Foxboro and then had to travel cross-country to the Bay Area. That Week 10 loss sent the Giants into a four game tailspin.

Bettors have to ask themselves this week what they believe in more, the 49ers model of consistency throughout the year or the current form of the Giants that has essentially won four straight playoff-type games coming in. Quarterback Eli Manning has never looked better in his career, while the 49ers continue to manufacture easy scoring opportunities with aide from a plus-32 turnover margin on the season, including plus-4 last week against the Saints.

Historically, the two teams have been intertwined throughout the playoffs over the last three decades with the 49ers holding a 4-3 mark over the Giants. Some of the all-time great playoff moments have occurred between these two franchises. Unforgettable images such as Jim Burt and Leonard Marshall pounding Joe Montana with viscous hits are routinely replayed. The Giants are 4-0 all-time in conference championship games, including one of those over the 49ers in 1990.

History doesn’t mean much in this game, but seeing those two historically rich teams facing off once again with all the marbles on the line is enough to get any casual fan excited that has watched a football game over the last 30 years. The players change, but the uniforms, cities and fans remain the same.

Perhaps the best value play of the game, if you like the 49ers, is laying -125 (Bet $125 to win $100) on the money-line that the Wynn has offered. For a chance to lay such a small price on a team that has covered the spread in every home game this season, you have extreme value. The value is there, but the hard part is getting the Giants to follow the plan.

Enjoy the games and be sure to check back regularly throughout the next two weeks as I‘ll keep you updated daily on all the Super Bowl line movement and happenings in Las Vegas.



Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
0 0
Post Comment
Pfile Nickname cnotes
  • Posts:24036
  • Followers:30
01/22/2012 01:39 PM
AFC Championship Game

January 21, 2012

Two years after going to Foxboro and eliminating New England from the postseason in the divisional round, Baltimore (13-4 straight up, 8-8-1 against the spread) returns to Gillette Stadium to take on the Patriots in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.

As of Saturday afternoon, most betting shops were listing New England (14-3 SU, 10-7 ATS) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 50. Gamblers can take the Ravens on the money line for a plus-250 return (risk $100 to win $250).

Baltimore has only been an underdog once in 17 games this year. The Ravens went to Heinz Field and won at Pittsburgh by a 23-20 score as 3 ½-point underdogs on Nov. 6.

John Harbaugh’s team advanced to the NFL’s version of the Final Four by capturing a 20-13 win over Houston as a 7 ½-point home favorite last Sunday afternoon. The 33 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 36-point total.

If you had the Ravens and the ‘over’ like me, you were not a happy camper. Baltimore led by a 17-13 count at intermission, so gamblers only needed one touchdown in the final 30 minutes to cash ‘over’ tickets.

Things were looking good in the third quarter when the Ravens had the ball inside Houston’s two yard line on third and goal. However, Ray Rice was stuffed on back-to-back plays during a gusty goal-line stand by the Texans.

Baltimore added a field goal in the fourth quarter and then held off two potential tying drives by Houston late in the final stanza. Ed Reed’s eighth career postseason interception, which tied him for second in NFL history, was key in the final minutes. When the Texans got one last chance, Reed batted down a Hail Mary pass to seal the victory.

He did, however, turn his ankle on the play and limped off of the field. But Reed has practiced this week and has been declared ‘100 percent.’

The same can be said for New England tight end Aaron Hernandez, who reportedly suffered a slight concussion in last Saturday night’s 45-10 demolition of Denver in the AFC semifinals. Hernandez and his fellow TE, Rob Gronkowski, were the catalysts in the blowout win.

Tom Brady, who sliced up the Broncos secondary for an NFL-record five touchdown passes in the first half alone, finished with 363 passing yards and six TDs compared to only one interception.

Hernandez was a factor rushing and receiving, tallying 63 rushing yards on five carries. The University of Florida product, who was an unfathomable fourth-round steal (grand theft!) in the 2010 NFL Draft, had four receptions for 55 yards and one TD. Gronkowski had 10 catches for 145 yards and three TDs.

New England has won eight of its nine home games, going 5-4 ATS. The Patriots have been single-digit home favorites five times, posting a 2-3 spread mark.

The ‘over’ is 12-5 overall for New England, 6-3 in its nine home games. Meanwhile, the Ravens have watched the ‘over’ cash at a 10-7 overall clip. Even better, they have seen the ‘over’ go 6-2 in their eight road assignments.

We should note, however, that this is the highest total the Ravens have had all season. In fact, the previous high was only 44 ½ in a 34-14 loss at San Diego.

Sportsbook.com has a slew of proposition wagers available. For instance, gamblers can bet on the player who will score the first touchdown. Gronkowski is the favorite with 4/1 odds, while Rice, Wes Welker and New England RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis share 6/1 odds. I think Hernandez is worth a shot for a 10/1 payout (risk $100 to win $1,000).

Joe Flacco’s totals for ‘over/under’ bets are 19 ½ (completions), 33 ½ (pass attempts) and 250 ½ (passing yards), while Brady’s are 25 ½ (completions), 36 ½ (attempts) and 320 ½ (passing yards)

Kickoff is scheduled for Sunday at 3:00 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Joe Flacco threw for 176 yards and a pair of touchdowns without being intercepted against Houston. Nevertheless, Reed was critical of his fourth-year QB during a radio interview this week despite the fact that Flacco now has five career postseason victories.

--For the season, Brady has a 45/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Flacco has a 22/12 TD-INT ratio.

--Rice is the key to the Ravens’ offense with his big-play capability running the ball and catching it out of the backfield. Rice has rushed for 1,364 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 4.7 yards per carry. He’s also made a team-high 76 catches for 704 yards and three scores.

--Rice’s totals for props are 21 ½ (carries) and 80 ½ (rushing yards).

--Harbaugh has to be hoping for an unexpected contribution from Lee Evans in Foxboro. The veteran WR was expected to play a key role this year, but Evans never got really got into a groove after missing several games early in the season with injuries. However, he made a big play against the Texans and has the speed to stretch the field.

--The exact same can be said for the Pats’ Chad Ochocinco, who only played one snap last week against Denver.

--Updated NFL futures per Sportsbook.com:
Pats +1220
Giants +325
49ers +325
Ravens +600

--My numbers for the four potential Super Bowl matchups are…
New England -7 vs. San Francisco (48 ½)
New England -4.5 vs. New York (50 ½)
New York -2 vs. Baltimore (46 ½)
Baltimore -4 vs. San Francisco (42)

--The Giants are 6-2 ATS as underdogs this year, going 5-2 both SU and ATS as road ‘dogs with outright wins at Dallas, at Green Bay, at New England, at Philadelphia and “at” the Jets.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
0 0
Post Comment
Pfile Nickname cnotes
  • Posts:24036
  • Followers:30
01/22/2012 01:41 PM
NFC Championship Game

January 20, 2012

The NFC Championship takes place in San Francisco for the first time since the 1997 season as the 49ers look to capitalize off last week's exciting divisional round victory over the Saints. The Giants head cross-country after handing Green Bay just its second loss of the season, but albeit their most devastating blow in a 37-20 rout of the defending Super Bowl champions last Sunday. Now, a spot in Super Bowl XLVI is on the line for a pair of teams that didn't even qualify for the playoffs last season.

For the sixth time since 1996, a conference championship will involve two squads that failed to make the postseason the year before (2008 NFC title game between Cardinals and Eagles last instance). However, San Francisco is obviously the bigger surprise in this spot than New York as the 49ers are in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Jim Harbaugh's club finished off a see-saw shootout by ousting the Saints last Saturday, 36-32 as 3 ½-point home underdogs to advance to the NFC championship.

Alex Smith was thought of as a bust entering potentially his final season as starting quarterback in San Francisco. The former top pick out of Utah threw for a career-high 3,144 yards this season, while tossing only five interceptions (the fewest among QB's with at least 300 attempts). But Smith finally made a name for himself in the final three minutes with the go-ahead touchdown run and eventual game-winning touchdown pass to Vernon Davis in the waning seconds. Smith threw for 299 yards and three touchdowns, while the Niners' defense forced five turnovers for San Francisco's first playoff win since the Steve Mariucci era.

In fact, the Niners eliminated the Giants in the Wild Card round of the 2002 playoffs at Candlestick, 39-38, the last time these teams met in the postseason. San Francisco erased a 24-point deficit to pull off the stunning victory as three-point favorites, the second-largest rally in postseason history. However, the 49ers will face a Giants' club that showcases their own former number one draft pick looking for his second Super Bowl appearance.

The Giants pulled the upset over the top-seeded Packers last Sunday, 37-20 as eight-point underdogs. Manning connected with Hakeem Nicks for a pair of long touchdowns, including a Hail Mary score at the end of the half to give New York a 10-point advantage. The Giants scored 17 points in the fourth quarter to finish off a Green Bay team that had lost only once since Week 15 of last season. With the win, Manning improved to 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the postseason away from home.

New York has been on a roll from an ATS perspective by compiling six covers in the previous seven games since the start of December. Tom Coughlin's squad began the season at 6-2, but had a three-game winning streak halted at Candlestick Park on November 13 in a 27-20 setback to the 49ers. The first six scores came via the field goal as the Niners led 12-6 in the third quarter. The Giants finally crossed the goal line with a Manning touchdown strike to Mario Manningham to give New York a 13-12 advantage heading to the final quarter.

San Francisco burned New York for a pair of touchdowns to run off 15 consecutive points and take a 27-13 lead. The Giants made it interesting with another Manning touchdown to Nicks, but New York's rally fell short as San Francisco cashed as four-point favorites. The victory by the Niners pretty much put the NFC West title away, even though there were seven games remaining in the season.

Both teams weren't convincing from a totals perspective this season, as the Niners finished 9-8 to the 'under,' while the Giants put together a 9-8-1 mark to the 'over.' The 36 points scored by San Francisco last week was the most put up this season, but only the second 'over' cashed at home the past six contests by the Bay. The Giants are riding a 4-1 run to the 'over' the last five road contests, including two matchups with the Packers and Saints.

The weather doesn't seem ideal with a 60% chance of rain on Sunday afternoon, as kickoff temperature is set to be in the mid 50's. The 49ers are listed as 2 ½-point favorites, while the total sits at 42. The game kicks off at 6:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on FOX
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
0 0
Post Comment
Pfile Nickname cnotes
  • Posts:24036
  • Followers:30
01/22/2012 01:45 PM
NFC Championship Preview: Giants at 49ers

NEW YORK GIANTS (11-7)

at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (14-3)


NFC Championship
Kickoff: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -2.5, Total: 42

The Giants try to continue their improbable run when they visit San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.

On Christmas Eve morning, New York was 7-7, having just lost five of six games. But the Giants then ran off four straight victories, including a stunning 37-20 win at 15-1 Green Bay on Sunday. But the task doesn’t get much easier as the 14-3 Niners, who beat the Giants on Nov. 13, await. In that Week 10 matchup, the teams played a back-and-forth affair, with San Francisco scoring two early fourth-quarter touchdowns en route to a 27-20 win. The Giants outgained the 49ers in that game, 395-305. New York QB Eli Manning has won five straight non-home playoff games (SU and ATS), but San Francisco has won seven straight home games (SU and ATS), holding five of those opponents to 10 points or less. Will the Giants continue another magical run to the Super Bowl, or will the defense-first 49ers take care of business at home? The StatFox Pro Football Pass gets you all the insight you need for Sunday's games and, of course, the Super Bowl in Indianapolis.

Both teams played in games that went Over the total last Saturday and this rare five-star FoxSheets trend also backs the OVER for the NFC Championship.

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (N.Y. GIANTS) - after covering the spread in 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (31-4 over the last 5 seasons.) (88.6%, +26.6 units. Rating = 5*).

The Giants have benefitted from huge plays during their four-game win streak, with touchdown passes of 99 yards and 74 yards to Victor Cruz, as well as Hakeem Nicks scores of 72 yards, 66 yards and a 37-yard, first-half-ending Hail Mary in Green Bay. In two playoff games, Nicks has 13 receptions for 280 yards and 4 TD, and he also had a 32-yard TD catch in San Francisco in Week 10. Manning had a strong performance against the Niners that day, completing 26-of-40 passes for 311 yards, 2 TD and 2 INT. In his past seven postseason games, Manning has a 6-1 record with 12 TD and just 4 INT. San Francisco ranked 16th in passing defense during the regular season (231 YPG) and allowed the Saints to net 435 yards through the air on Saturday. This certainly bodes well for New York’s pass-happy attack.

The Giants will not likely be running the ball very much on Sunday. They ranked last in the NFL with 89 rushing YPG during the regular season, including being held to 93 yards on 29 carries (3.2 YPC) in San Francisco Week 10. Ahmad Bradshaw didn’t play that game, but he’s been pretty strong this postseason with 126 yards on 26 carries (4.8 YPC), while adding 43 more yards on eight catches. He’ll need to have an extraordinary game though to chew up yards on a 49ers run defense that has allowed just 75 YPG on 3.5 YPC this season.

San Francisco QB Alex Smith is coming off a tremendous performance against the Saints, completing 24-of-42 passes for 299 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. He also ran for a 28-yard score with 2:11 left to put his team in front. TE Vernon Davis caught two of those touchdowns as part of his monster seven-catch, 180-yard performance, capped off by a game-winning TD catch with nine seconds left in regulation. Davis also caught a 31-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter of the Week 10 matchup that gave San Francisco the lead for good. The duo should have another big afternoon considering New York allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL during the regular season (255 YPG).

But the key to this game could come down to San Francisco controlling the clock with its running game, powered by Frank Gore. The Niners ranked eighth in the NFL in rushing yards (128 YPG), while the Giants allowed 121 rushing YPG (19th in league). Gore was solid against the Saints, rumbling for 89 yards on just 13 carries (6.8 YPC). But he was held in check against New York in Week 10, gaining zero yards on six carries. Backup RB Kendall Hunter rushed for 40 yards on six carries against New York in the November meeting including a 17-yard TD run in the fourth quarter. The rookie Hunter has piled up 172 yards on 34 carries (5.1 YPC) in the past three weeks.

Both teams took advantage of turnovers last week, with San Francisco going +4 against New Orleans, and the Giants sporting a +3 ratio in Green Bay. But the Giants will be hard-pressed to force the Niners into mistakes, as they are coming off a record-setting-low of 10 offensive turnovers for the entire regular season. New York has also done a great job of protecting the football lately with just two total turnovers during its four-game winning streak.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
0 0
Post Comment