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Atlanta vs. Indiana, 01/11/2012 19:00
Point Spread: -2½/-105 Indiana
The Indiana Pacers are showing awesome value tonight as small home favorite over the Atlanta Hawks. I'll pull the trigger on an underrated Pacers team that has yet to lose at home this year. The only reason they are a small favorite tonight is because they are coming off a bad road loss.
Indiana has managed to open 6-3 this season despite playing six of their first nine games on the road. They are coming off a 10-point road loss at Philadelphia, which really isn't a bad loss considering how well the 76ers have played in the early going. The Pacers are 3-0 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 13.7 points/game.
While I believe the Pacers are underrated this year, I also feel that the Hawks are a bit overrated right now due to their 7-3 start. This is a team that did not do much in the offseason, whereas the Pacers brought in several key players, including David West and George Hill. Indiana is the definition of a "team" with seven players averaging double-digits scoring.
This play falls into a system that is 58-24 (70.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home teams (INDIANA) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. The Pacers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. The favorite is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Bet Indiana Wednesday.