cnotes Posts:25161 Followers:33
On 01/08/2012 09:20 PM in NFL

Cnotes NFL Divisional Best Bets 1/14-1/15 !

Division Openers

January 8, 2012

Saturday, Jan. 14
New Orleans at San Francisco (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Line: Saints -3.5 (47)

Movement: All of the major offshore outfits (Pinnacle, Greek, CRIS, 5Dimes) sent out New Orleans -3 with the money being flat (EVEN) or listed at (-125). The total came out at 46.5 and was pushed up to 47 at most shops.

Notes: Will gamblers give the points with New Orleans again? It's hard not to bet on the Saints, considering the team has won and covered nine straight games. It shouldn't be easy, considering San Francisco went 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS from the Bay Area and the lone loss came by three points, an overtime decision to Dallas (24-27) in Week 2. New Orleans went 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road this season. The Saints have won six straight (4-2 ATS) against the 49ers, with their last meeting coming (25-22) in the 2010 season on MNF. San Francisco hasn’t won or been to a playoff game since 2002, when they rallied past the N.Y. Giants for a 39-38 victory. Make a note that Saints QB Drew Brees has never won a road playoff game in his career, unless you count the Super Bowl victory over the Colts, which was played in South Florida.

Denver at New England (CBS, 8:00 p.m. ET)

Line: Patriots -13.5 (51)

Movement: New England opened at -13 and the hook was added quickly. 5Dimes opened 14, jumped to 15 ½ real quick. The total started at 51 dropped to 49 ½ and danced back to 51.

Notes: After a slow start, New England ran past Denver in Week 15 for a 41-23 road victory. The Pats covered as seven point favorites and the combined 64 points easily jumped ‘over’ the closing number (47). The Patriots went 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS at home this season, with the lone loss coming to the N.Y. Giants (20-24) in Week 9. New England was 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season. Prior to the win over Pittsburgh (29-23) in the Wild Card round, Denver was 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS versus playoff teams. The Broncos went 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS on the road, but were 5-1 with Tim Tebow as the starting quarterback. Bill Belichick and the Patriots have lost their last three playoff battles, including the last two at home.

Sunday, Jan. 15

Houston at Baltimore (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Line: Ravens -7.5 (35.5)

Movement: Depending on who you like and where you play, you could shop for a good number here. Baltimore opened at -7 in Las Vegas and offshore. The lowest number you can get right now is 7.5 but there are 8s and even 9s as of Sunday evening. The total got slammed from 38.5 to 35.5 points, where it seems to have settled.

Notes: These two squads have met five times and Baltimore has come away with victories in all five (4-1 ATS), including an encounter this season. Baltimore stopped Houston 29-14 in Week 5, covering as a seven-point home favorite. The Ravens only led 16-14 after three quarters, but they also saw five drives end with field goals. Baltimore was a beast at home this season, going 8-0 (4-3-1 ATS). Meanwhile, Houston was a respectable 5-3 both SU and ATS on the road. Baltimore has never lost a playoff opener since John Harbaugh has taken over as coach in 2008. Ironically, this will be the first postseason game at home for the Ravens under Harbaugh.

New York Giants at Green Bay (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)

Line: Packers -8.5 (52)

Movement: This is another number that has some solid range. The opener was sent out at 9.5 at both Greek and Wynn, but 5Dimes opened 11, which has dropped to 10. The consensus is sitting at 8 ½ but there are a couple 9s (EVEN) out there. The total opened at 51 and has jumped up to 52 at the majority of shops.

Notes: The Packers held off the Giants 38-35 for a road victory in Week 13, but they failed to cover as seven-point favorites. Green Bay averaged 40 points per game at Lambeau Field, which help the team produce an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS mark. New York was 5-3 both SU and ATS as a visitor this season. Gamblers have some good coaching trends for this matchup. Tom Coughlin is 5-3 in the postseason with the G-Men and that includes a 4-1 road record (5-0 ATS) outside of New York. And for the Packers, Mike McCarthy is 7-0 versus the number with a bye week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25161 Followers:33
01/08/2012 09:22 PM

Saints marching on to San Francisco

January 8, 2012

METAIRIE, La. (AP) - The New Orleans Saints are still undefeated at home and have lost just three times all season, so it might be a bit of nitpicking to say their performances on the road could be a potential downfall.

At least, coach Sean Payton feels that way, saying that's just people trying to find something wrong with his team.

After beating Detroit 45-28 in the Superdome in the NFC wild-card round, the Saints will travel to No. 2 seed San Francisco for their game next Saturday.

And of New Orleans' three road losses this season, two were on natural grass, the surface they'll play on at Candlestick Park, where the 49ers went 7-1.

However, receiver Robert Meachem says earlier road losses helped prepare them for this moment.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25161 Followers:33
01/08/2012 09:24 PM

Watt's play propels Texans to next round

January 8, 2012

HOUSTON (AP) - The Houston Texans see J.J. Watt make disruptive plays in practice all the time.

The 6-foot-5, 288-pound rookie defensive end is constantly swatting passes, and even intercepting a few. He finally hung onto one when it counted, in the biggest game of the year.

Watt's game-changing interception return for a touchdown on Saturday propelled the Texans (11-6) to a 31-10 win over Cincinnati and set up a matchup with Baltimore (12-4) in the next round of the playoffs.

``That was a huge momentum lift for us,'' linebacker DeMeco Ryans said. ``When J.J. got the touchdown, the confidence level rolls, everyone is excited and we continued to feed off that. J.J. provided for us that huge play that just catapulted us to take it to the next level.''

The 10-year-old Texans won their first playoff game, and now have the daunting task of facing Ray Lewis and the Ravens on their home field. Baltimore is 8-0 at M&T Bank Stadium this season, including a 29-14 win over Houston in Week 6.

They'll be underdogs, but history is actually on their side.

The Texans are one of six teams to join the NFL since the merger with the AFL in 1970. All six won their postseason debut, and the previous five (Carolina, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Baltimore and Seattle) all went on to reach the championship game in their respective conference. The Ravens won the Super Bowl after the 2000 season.

Following a resounding victory on Saturday, the Texans believe they can do it, too.

``We made history,'' Watt said. ``We're excited about another chance to make history up there in Baltimore.''

Houston limped into its first postseason after three straight losses to end the regular season, and many indications pointed to a quick exit. The Bengals controlled the clock and much of the first half on Saturday, though the Texans rallied to tie it at 10-all.

Then Watt, the Texans' first-round draft pick and a cornerstone of the rebuilt defense, leaped to snag Andy Dalton's pass and chugged 29 yards for a touchdown, sending the record crowd of 71,725 into a frenzy.

The Texans dominated the second half, with Andre Johnson catching a 40-yard touchdown pass from rookie T.J. Yates and Arian Foster punctuating the victory with a signature 42-yard TD run, tiptoeing down the sideline and easily pushing away Bengals safety Chris Crocker.

Yates looked as poised and sharp as he has in weeks, though he only completed 11 passes for 159 yards. And Johnson finally seemed like himself again, after missing nine games in this historic season with hamstring injuries.

``I'm just glad the hamstrings didn't talk to me,'' Johnson said.

Drafted in the first round of 2003 out of Miami, Johnson is the lone holdover from the middling stretch before coach Gary Kubiak took over, when the Texans mostly languished at the bottom of the AFC South, a favorite opponent for Peyton Manning and the Colts.

Johnson savored his shining moment on Saturday, then immediately started looking ahead to the next one.

``I can remember when I was a rookie like it was yesterday,'' Johnson said. ``It has been nine seasons, and it has gone by really fast. The college days were fun, and I was able to play in a couple of big games. But all I am thinking about is what is next for this organization.

``So we go to Baltimore next week, and we are going to try to go up there and do what we did (Saturday).''

Johnson missed the previous meeting with the Ravens with a right hamstring injury that required minor surgery. It was also the Texans' first game after star outside linebacker Mario Williams tore a chest muscle.

Houston led 14-13 in the third quarter, until the defense collapsed and the Ravens pulled away in the fourth. Foster mustered only 49 yards rushing, and the Texans were held to season lows in points and yards (293).

``They have been an excellent team all year long,'' Kubiak said of the Ravens. ``You have to go play at their place. So we understand. We went there earlier in the season, and we'll have to play as good as we can possibly play.''

The Texans said after Saturday's game that their late-season swoon actually benefitted them, because it reset everyone's focus. Suddenly, the team's confidence is restored and a return trip to Baltimore doesn't seem so intimidating.

``We've been there before, and it's not going to be anything new,'' linebacker Brian Cushing said. ``I'm sure it'll be a bit louder, with the playoff environment. They'll be excited, coming off a bye. But we'll be ready. Going up there, it's going to be a fun, exciting challenge. We're ready for it.''

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25161 Followers:33
01/08/2012 09:34 PM

NFL divisional playoffs odds: Opening line report

We talked to sportsbook oddsmakers to get their thinking behind opening lines for the NFL divisional playoffs.

No. 3 New Orleans Saints at No. 2 San Francisco 49ers, 4:30 p.m. Saturday

Wynn Las Vegas opening line: Saints -3 (-120), 46.5

BetOnline.com line as of late Sunday: Saints -3.5, 47

Wynn sportsbook manager John Avello expects another flood of Saints money.

"We were thinking 3 and then we went to -3 (-120) after Saturday's performance," Avello told Covers.com after the Saints broke the postseason record with 626 total yards in their 45-28 thrashing of Detroit. "I don't know how we keep bettors off this team right now. I bet you I'll be at 3.5 pretty soon.

"The public loves the Saints, they see this offense and they just think they can score at will," he continued. "They're going to overlook the Niners because that team hasn't been in the playoffs in a while. They're the No. 2 seed, but in reality everybody believes the Saints are the No. 2 seed. I just think we're going to need San Fran. But we'll see how it turns out."

New Orleans has won and covered nine straight. With Drew Brees breaking records on a weekly basis, the Saints have averaged 44.3 points over their last four games.

Lions-Saints just soared over a record total for an NFL playoff game. Still, Avello said he opened Saints-Niners at 46.5 for two reasons: San Fran's No. 2-ranked defense (14.3 points allowed per game) and the style the Niners must play.

"San Fran cannot get into a shootout," he said.

No. 4 Denver Broncos at No. 1 New England Patriots, 8 p.m. ET Saturday

Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opening line: Patriots -13.5, 50.5

BetOnline.com line as of laste Sunday: Patriots -13.5 (-120), 51

Some books already moved to 14.

Jay Kornegay, director of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook, expects to follow suit.

“Looks like the money is going to push it to 14, but the question is where does it go from that point?” he told Covers.com.

Kornegay gave Denver its props, especially for its play-action passes, but noted the Broncos faced a depleted version of the Steelers on Sunday.

“It was a great win, but I’m not really sold on the Denver Broncos making a run to the Super Bowl,” he said.

When New England visited Denver on Dec. 18, the Pats rallied from a 16-7 deficit to win 41-23, covering as 7-point favorites. The game sailed over the 47.5 total.

Tom Brady threw for 320 yards and two TDs, and tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski combined for 13 catches and 182 yards.

No. 3 Houston Texans at No. 2 Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. Sunday

Caesars Palace opening line: Ravens -7.5, 38.5

Wynn Las Vegas opening line: Ravens -7, 38.5

BetOnline.com line as of late Sunday: Ravens -9 (+115), 37.5

Oddsmakers didn't overreact to Houston's 31-10 wild card win over Cincinnati.

"I'm still not sold on the Texans," Todd Fuhrman, senior race and sports analyst for Caesars Entertainment, told Covers.com. "The game wasn't nearly as lopsided as the final score indicated."

He opened Texans-Ravens at 7.5 because "the Ravens coming off a bye is worth at least one full point, and I think the hook will give us better balance than opening at just a TD."

Offshore books that opened the game at 7 quickly moved higher as Baltimore money poured in.

Avello also wasn't swayed by the Texans' first-ever playoff win.

“Arian Foster looked pretty good, that’s for sure,” he said. “But the Texans played at Baltimore in the middle of the season, the line was 7 and they lost by a couple touchdowns. It’s going to be tough for the Texans, and for T.J. Yates. He’ll find the going much more difficult.”

Avello based his opening line primarily on power ratings.

“I really don’t vary much by going with a lot of opinion at this point,” he said. “Our ratings say 7. The total has got to be on the low side. You can’t think there’s going to be a whole lot of scoring, not with the way the Ravens play at home. I think we’re where we need to be.”

It’s a matchup of Top-5 defenses. Baltimore allows 16.6 points per game (3rd), Houston 17.4 (4th).

When the teams met in Week 6 in Baltimore, Houston led 14-13 in the third quarter. But the Ravens dominated from that point, winning 29-14 as 7-point favorites. The score fell a half-point shy of the 43.5 total.

Joe Flacco threw for 305 yards, Ray Rice ran for 101 and Baltimore held Houston’s vaunted ground game to 3.7 yards per carry.

Matt Schaub quarterbacked the Texans that day. This time it will be the rookie Yates facing Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and company.

Yates played efficiently on Saturday, going 11 of 20 for 159 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions. He did throw one ill-advised pass Chris Crocker should have picked off.

Foster, who ran for 153 yards Saturday, was held to 49 yards on 15 carries in the Oct. 16 loss in Baltimore.

No. 4 New York Giants at No. 1 Green Bay Packers, 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday

Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opening line: Packers -9, 51.5

BetOnline.com line as of late Sunday: Packers -9 (-105), 51.5

Offshores that opened anywhere but 9 quickly fell into line.

At first glance this seems like a big number. The Giants dismantled Atlanta on Sunday, their defense not allowing a point. And New York nearly upset Green Bay in Week 13.

But oddsmakers aren’t buying that it’s 2007 all over again.

“The Packers are going to be a little more creative than the Falcons,” Kornegay told Covers.com. “The Giants played well but I’m not going to get too excited about them because they haven’t put a string of good games together all year.

“Green Bay still remembers what happened a few years back [losing the NFC championship game 23-20 at home to New York],” he continued. “The Falcons were very conservative and didn’t make the right adjustments. We know the Packers are better coached than that.”

Kornegay said a total of 51 would “be on the short side and we’ll probably stay on the high side throughout the week, unless weather comes into play.”

In Week 13, these teams played a thriller at MetLife Stadium. Green Bay won 38-35, failing to cover as a 7-point favorite. The game went over the 53.5 total by nearly 20 points.

They combined for 53 first downs and nearly 900 yards of offense.

Although it was their fourth straight loss, the Giants took heart from pushing the then-undefeated Super Bowl champs to the limit.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25161 Followers:33
01/08/2012 09:37 PM

Top 5 NFL Trends

NO
SF NO are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

NO
SF NO are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.

NO
SF NO are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.

NO
SF NO are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

NO
SF NO are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25161 Followers:33
01/08/2012 09:39 PM

Divisional Playoff Preview: Saints at 49ers

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (14-3)

at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (13-3)


NFC Playoffs - Divisional Playoff Game
Kickoff: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -3, Total: 47

The Saints try to win their 10th straight game when they visit former division rival San Francisco with a berth in the NFC Championship Game at stake.

This will be a classic battle of offense versus defense. The 49ers defense is elite against the run, but they struggled to stop the pass when facing the league’s top quarterbacks. Dallas (432 yards), Philadelphia (416), Detroit (293), N.Y. Giants (311) and Pittsburgh (330) all moved the ball in the air against a secondary that’s more about creating turnovers than limiting yards. Saints QB Drew Brees could take full advantage of that. San Francisco will try to control the clock with its power running game against a Saints defense that doesn’t defend the run well (4.9 YPC allowed). Who will win this matchup of the top two ATS records in the league, New Orleans (13-4 ATS, 77%) or San Francisco (11-4-1 ATS, 73%)? The StatFox Pro Football Pass was 3-1 ATS during Wild Card Weekend. Click here to get all the insight you need for this game and throughout the NFL playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl.

The past four Saints games have all gone Over the Total, with an average of 64.5 points per game. This three-star FoxSheets trend also favors the OVER for Saturday’s game.

Play Over - Any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a top-level team (>=75%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season. (26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).

These teams met in Week 2 of the 2010 season, when the pre-Jim Harbuagh Niners were embarking on another disappointing year. They outplayed the Saints, holding Brees to 254 passing yards and out-gaining New Orleans 417-287. San Francisco led 14-9 early in the second half, but four turnovers did them in a 25-22 loss.

Brees has been incredible this season with 5,942 passing yards (350 YPG), 49 TD and 14 INT including his brilliant performance against Detroit last week (33-of-43, 466 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT). New Orleans piled up an NFL playoff record 626 total yards in the win over the Lions. But the Saints are a different team away from their home turf (27.2 PPG, 4-4 ATS). But Brees has just 9 TD and 6 INT on grass surfaces this year, compared to 40 TD and 8 INT on turf. However, Brees has had no problem controlling the winds at Candlestick Park, completing 59-of-77 passes (77%) for 590 yards, 6 TD and 0 INT in two career games in San Francisco. But Brees doesn’t have to win this game all by himself with a rushing attack averaging 175 YPG on 5.3 YPC in the past four games. Three different players rushed for 45+ yards against the Lions: Pierre Thomas (66 yards, 8.3 YPC), Darren Sproles (51 yards, 5.1 YPC) and Chris Ivory (47 yards, 3.6 YPC). This versatile ground game will be key against a 49ers team that led the NFL with 77 rushing YPG allowed.

The Saints allowed 380 passing yards in their win over Detroit last week, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing considering they are 7-0 ATS after allowing 300+ yards in their previous game this year. But the 49ers don’t try to beat teams through the air, attempting the second-fewest passes in the league this season (28.2 attempts per game). San Francisco quarterbacks have thrown only five interceptions all season, but have been sacked 44 times (7th-most in the NFL). QB Alex Smith has played nearly every snap, and has been much more effective in his home stadium (99.8 rating, 7.75 YPA, 12 TD, 3 INT) than he was on the road (82.7 rating, 6.46 YPA, 5 TD, 2 INT). Smith is 0-3 all-time against the Saints though, sporting a 65.0 passer rating (6.17 YPA, 3 TD, 5 INT).

San Francisco is an unbeaten 7-0-1 ATS at home this season and 9-1 ATS on a grass surface. Much of that has to do with a rushing offense chewing up 128 rushing YPG (8th in the NFL) led by Frank Gore’s 1,211 yards on 4.3 YPC. In the past two meetings against the Saints, Gore has 194 rushing yards (5.4 YPC), 87 receiving yards and 2 TD. Rookie Kendall Hunter has also stepped up in the past two games, rushing for 149 yards on 28 carries (5.3 YPC).

Another reason the 49ers have 13 wins this year, is due to their lack of turnovers. They have the fewest giveaways in the NFL (10), including a current ride of five straight games without an offensive turnover. And the defense has forced 12 turnovers during this turnover-less streak. The Saints also take care of the football very well, finishing tied for the fourth-fewest giveaways in the league (17).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25161 Followers:33
01/09/2012 06:53 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Division Round

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Saturday, January 14

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NEW ORLEANS (14 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (13 - 3) - 1/14/2012, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (9 - 8) at NEW ENGLAND (13 - 3) - 1/14/2012, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 144-108 ATS (+25.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 89-64 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 62-38 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 15

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HOUSTON (11 - 6) at BALTIMORE (12 - 4) - 1/15/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (10 - 7) at GREEN BAY (15 - 1) - 1/15/2012, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games this season.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home lined games this season.
GREEN BAY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field this season.
GREEN BAY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 54-31 ATS (+19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Division Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 14

4:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing New Orleans

8:00 PM
DENVER vs. NEW ENGLAND
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


Sunday, January 15

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. BALTIMORE
Houston is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Baltimore is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

4:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. GREEN BAY
NY Giants are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
NY Giants are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25161 Followers:33
01/09/2012 06:55 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Division Round

Saturday, 1/14/2012

NEW ORLEANS at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:30 PM ET FOX
NEW ORLEANS: 12-3 ATS as favorite
SAN FRANCISCO: 0-6 ATS off division win

DENVER at NEW ENGLAND, 8:00 PM ET CBS
DENVER: 5-1 ATS in New England
NEW ENGLAND: 25-8 Over in all games

Sunday, 1/15/2012

HOUSTON at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET CBS
HOUSTON: 7-18 ATS Away off home win
BALTIMORE: 55-36 ATS as home favorite

NY GIANTS at GREEN BAY, 4:00 PM ET FOX
NY GIANTS: 6-0 Over off 3+ wins
GREEN BAY: 7-1 Over in home games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25161 Followers:33
01/10/2012 10:49 PM

Saints And 49ers Collide In San Francisco

The red-hot New Orleans Saints head to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in this thrilling playoff divisional round matchup Saturday.

New Orleans is currently a 3½-point road favorite on the Don Best odds screen. Saturday’s game is set to start at 4:30 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on FOX.

Both the Saints and the 49ers finished the regular season with 13-3 records, but San Francisco locked up the No. 2 seed by way of a stronger conference record tiebreaker. How much of a factor will venue play in this one? New Orleans is virtually unbeatable at home, amassing a 9-0 SU and ATS record in New Orleans while going 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS on the road. The Saints also have history looming over their heads as they have never won a road playoff game in four tries.

Drew Brees and company hope to eradicate that black cloud hanging over the franchise. Brees carried the Saints to an easy 45-28 win over Detroit last week with a nearly flawless performance, passing for 466 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.

No team in the NFL is hotter than the New Orleans Saints. The Saints have won nine straight games, both SU and ATS, and have scored over 40 points the last four times out. Detractors will point out that all four of those games were inside of domes, and it is clear that the Saints play their best football indoors, but weather shouldn’t play much of a factor in Saturday’s contest with sunny skies and temps in the upper-50s for kickoff.

If the Saints struggle on offense, it will likely have a lot more to do with the Niners’ stingy defense.

San Francisco finished up their season 11-4-1 ATS, failing to cover as a 12½-point favorite on the road against St. Louis in their regular season finale. The 49ers put an ugly loss to Arizona behind them to close out the season with three straight wins, including the convincing 20-3 win over Pittsburgh at home on Monday Night Football.

The 49ers finished 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS at Candlestick Park this season, and the home crowd should be pretty revved up for the team’s first playoff game since 2002. San Francisco ranks second in the NFL in scoring defense allowing just 14.3 points per game, and fourth in total defense allowing 308.2 yards per game. Jim Harbaugh’s smash-mouth defense has worked very well this season, and has had an extra week to rest and prepare for this game.

It comes down to a textbook offense vs. a stonewalling defense and which team can control the tempo. If the 49ers take charge of the line of scrimmage, make Drew Brees uncomfortable and run the ball well with Frank Gore on offense, they have a great shot at winning outright. If New Orleans’ offense continues to roll like it has for the last four games, Alex Smith and the 49ers have little chance of keeping up.

New Orleans is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six games against San Francisco. The total has gone ‘under’ in eight of San Francisco’s last 11 games but has gone ‘over’ in each of New Orleans’ last four games. Saturday’s total is currently set at 47.

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cnotes Posts:25161 Followers:33
01/10/2012 10:54 PM

Broncos And Tebow Big 'Dogs At New England Patriots

The never-say-die Denver Broncos hope to continue their miracle season when they visit the New England Patriots in a divisional round matchup on Saturday night.

Don Best has the just-released NFL odds and New England is a big 13½-point favorite with a total of 50½-51. CBS regains its normal AFC coverage at 8:00 p.m. (ET) from Gillette Stadium.

The Broncos (9-8 straight up, 8-9 against the spread) have the entire football world buzzing after their latest ‘Mile High Miracle,’ a 29-23 overtime win over Pittsburgh as 7½-point home ‘dogs. An 80-yard pass from Tim Tebow to Demaryius Thomas on the first play of OT was the dramatic conclusion. Tebow had 316 passing yards with three completions over 50 yards.

The win snapped the Broncos’ 3-game losing streak, both SU and ATS, although they previously backed into the AFC West title. Tebow was getting bashed in the national media after averaging 146.3 passing yards in those three losses, with many calling for a position change to fullback.

One of those losses came at home versus New England on Dec. 18. The Broncos dominated the Pats in the first quarter with 167 rushing yards. However, three second quarter turnovers turned a 16-7 lead into a 27-16 halftime deficit. Tebow and company were forced to play catch-up, not their strength, losing 41-23 win as 7-point home underdogs.

New England (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS) coach Bill Belichick would never admit it, but he was the president of the Tebow fan club for at least one week. Belichick would much rather face Denver than Pittsburgh, who could have easily shredded the league’s 31st-ranked pass defense (294 YPG) even with Ben Roethlisberger on a bum ankle.

Belichick’s bunch earned the AFC’s top seed by virtue of the NFL’s third-ranked scoring offense (32.1 PPG). Playing a very physical Steelers team that went to the Super Bowl last year, and won it three years ago, would be anything but a reward.

The Patriots have far more pressure on them. They’ve lost the last two years in opening home playoff games to Baltimore (33-14) and the New York Jets (28-21) laying 3½ and 9½ points respectively. New England has dropped three straight playoff games overall including the crushing 2008 Super Bowl loss to the Giants (17-14) to ruin a perfect season.

Brady threw an early interception in that Jets game that turned momentum around. He also had three picks versus the Ravens. He’s mostly bothered by strong pass rushes up the middle so Denver needs to use that strategy and not just rely on the outside rush of Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil.

The offensive game plan for New England could be no-huddle from the outset, getting Brady in rhythm and trying to force Denver to play from behind. Defensively, New England will not cheat up on the run like Pittsburgh, taking away the big pass from Tebow and forcing him to throw underneath. The inaccurate quarterback only completed 10-of-21 passes against Pitt and was 46.5 percent in the regular season (ranked last).

The Broncos feel they would have won the first meeting if not for turnovers and there is some merit in that. They want to run the ball first and foremost to keep Brady off the field. Their big matchup problem defensively is the young safeties against New England’s tight end combo of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

The bye week should be a big boost for the Patriots as long as they don’t come out flat. The extra time has allowed offensive guard Logan Mankins (knee) and tackle Sebastian Vollmer (back) to both be probable after missing time.

The extra rest is also good for linebacker Brandon Spikes and safety Patrick Chung, who each returned last game. Spikes is a very good run stuffer on early downs and Chung has been missed in the secondary most of the year. The team has experimented with Devin McCourty at safety next to Chung, but that leaves the corner position an even bigger question.

Denver has a lot of young legs and fatigue shouldn’t be a factor despite losing a day of preparation. Receiver Eric Decker (knee) is not expected to play and safety Brian Dawkins (neck) questionable at best. The veteran Dawkins is needed against this high-octane offense.

Denver is 5-1 SU and ATS on the road with Tebow starting, but lost 40-14 at Buffalo in the last one right before Christmas.

New England is 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) at home this year, but 0-5 ATS in its last five home playoff games. The ‘under’ is 7-1-1 in its last nine divisional games.

Early weather predictions are clear, but in the 20s. The night game is an advantage for New England as the sometimes quiet Gillette Stadium should be rowdy with the extra tailgating time.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: