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Ohio State vs. Iowa, 01/07/2012 15:00
Point Spread: +11½/-110 Iowa
1 Unit on Iowa Hawkeyes +11.5
Iowa, which enters this contest on a 5-0 ATS run, is playing with a ton of confidence. After taking Purdue down to the wire (79-76 loss), it went on the road and upset Wisconsin and Minnesota. It won't be lacking any confidence today against an Ohio State team it played to a 5-point game at home last season.
While teams have a tendency to endure a letdown following big wins, Iowa has been just the opposite. In fact, it is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 home games following an upset win over a conference rival. It has actually won by an average score of 68.0 to 62.7 in this spot.
Ohio State has been consistently overvalued by odds makers in recent seasons, especially on Saturday's when the books are looking to take advantage of the public's love affair with highly rated team. As a result, the Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 Saturday road games. The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
The Buckeyes, who are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games overall, are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings at Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Big Ten. We'll take the points.