cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
09/06/2011 07:31 PM

NFL
Dunkel


Week 1

New Orleans at Green Bay
The Saints look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games in Week 1. The Saints are the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Packers favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+4). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 8

Game 451-452: New Orleans at Green Bay (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 136.421; Green Bay 138.186
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 1 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 4; 47
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+4); Over

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 11

Game 453-454: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.591; Baltimore 141.085
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 5 1/2; 34
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-2 1/2); Under

Game 455-456: Detroit at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 134.380; Tampa Bay 133.905
Dunkel Line: Even; 43
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 41
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+1); Over

Game 457-458: Atlanta at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 137.202; Chicago 132.597
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2 1/2); Under

Game 459-460: Buffalo at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 125.508; Kansas City 130.019
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 4 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 6 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+6 1/2); Under

Game 461-462: Indianapolis at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 129.096; Houston 136.103
Dunkel Line: Houston by 7; 49
Vegas Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-5 1/2); Over

Game 463-464: Philadelphia at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 134.710; St. Louis 131.608
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3; 45
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 4 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+4 1/2); Over

Game 465-466: Cincinnati at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 125.374; Cleveland 132.442
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 7; 34
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 36
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-6 1/2); Under

Game 467-468: Tennessee at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 126.596; Jacksonville 132.529
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 6; 40
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (-3); Over

Game 469-470: NY Giants at Washington (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 132.738; Washington 132.034
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1; 37
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Under

Game 471-472: Carolina at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 117.611; Arizona 127.536
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10; 42
Vegas Line: Arizona by 7; 37
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-7); Over

Game 473-474: Seattle at San Francisco (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 124.046; San Francisco 131.233
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6; 38
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6); Under

Game 475-476: Minnesota at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.720; San Diego 137.967
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 6; 44
Vegas Line: San Diego by 9; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+9); Over

Game 477-478: Dallas at NY Jets (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 133.972; NY Jets 136.873
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 3; 39
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 4 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+4 1/2); Under


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 12

Game 479-480: New England at Miami (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.880; Miami 130.760
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Over

Game 481-482: Oakland at Denver (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 129.522; Denver 135.102
Dunkel Line: Denver by 5 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 40
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3); Under

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
09/06/2011 07:31 PM

NFL
Short Sheet


Week 1

Thursday, 9/8/2011

NEW ORLEANS at GREEN BAY, 8:30 PM ET NBC
NEW ORLEANS: 6-0 Over Away if total is 45.5 to 49
GREEN BAY: 24-12 ATS all games


Sunday, 9/11/2011

PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
PITTSBURGH: 59-39 ATS as underdog
BALTIMORE: 5-9 ATS at home vs. Pittsburgh

DETROIT at TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM ET
DETROIT: 10-2 ATS vs. NFC
TAMPA BAY: 3-11 ATS in home games

ATLANTA at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 22-11 ATS in all games
CHICAGO: 15-4 Under as underdog

BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 4-1 ATS as road dog of 3.5 to 7 pts
KANSAS CITY: 13-28 ATS vs. AFC East

INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 12-4 Over in road games
HOUSTON: 5-10 ATS in home games

PHILADELPHIA at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 6-0 Over in conf road games
ST LOUIS: 1-7 ATS vs. Philadelphia

CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 26-46 ATS 1st month of season
CLEVELAND: 11-5 ATS at home vs. Cincinnati

TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 9-2 Over if total is 35.5 to 42
JACKSONVILLE: 3-6 ATS as favorite

NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON, 4:15 PM ET
NY GIANTS: 12-3 Over Away 1st 2 wks of season
WASHINGTON: 10-24 ATS at home 1st month of season

CAROLINA at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
CAROLINA: 0-6 ATS as road dog of 7pts or less
ARIZONA: 72-46 Over on turf

SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:15 PM ET
SEATTLE: 2-13 ATS as road underdog
SAN FRANCISCO: 13-3 Over at home if total is 35.5 to 38

MINNESOTA at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 1-9 ATS as an underdog
SAN DIEGO: 18-6 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points

DALLAS at NY JETS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
DALLAS: 13-3 Over in all games
NY JETS: 4-14 ATS at home 1st 2 wks of season


Monday, 9/12/2011

NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI, 7:00 PM ET ESPN
NEW ENGLAND: 12-2 Over as favorite
MIAMI: 7-0 Over at home 1st half of season

OAKLAND at DENVER, 10:15 PM ET ESPN
OAKLAND: 29-61 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
DENVER: 82-52 Over as a home favorite

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
09/06/2011 07:33 PM

NFL


Week 1

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 8

8:30 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. GREEN BAY
New Orleans is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home


Sunday, September 11

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 12 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Houston is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 13 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Detroit
Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Detroit

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CHICAGO
Atlanta is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Chicago
Atlanta is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
St. Louis is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
Cincinnati is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 12 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games when playing Buffalo
Kansas City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee

4:15 PM
SEATTLE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
CAROLINA vs. ARIZONA
Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 15 games
Arizona is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SAN DIEGO
Minnesota is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
San Diego is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

4:15 PM
NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
NY Giants are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing Washington
NY Giants are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games on the road
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Washington is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants

8:20 PM
DALLAS vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Dallas's last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing Dallas
NY Jets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games at home


Monday, September 12

7:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 10 of New England's last 11 games
New England is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New England
Miami is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against New England

10:15 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 8 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games at home
Denver is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
09/06/2011 11:52 PM

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 1

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Thursday, September 8

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NEW ORLEANS at GREEN BAY - 9/8/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 134-99 ATS (+25.1 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, September 11

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PITTSBURGH at BALTIMORE - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 59-39 ATS (+16.1 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT at TAMPA BAY - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
0 of 0 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA at CHICAGO - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO at KANSAS CITY - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS at HOUSTON - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA at ST LOUIS - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 142-101 ATS (+30.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 83-113 ATS (-41.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (4 - 12) at CLEVELAND (5 - 11) - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 99-132 ATS (-46.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 55-79 ATS (-31.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE - 9/11/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON - 9/11/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 4-0 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA at ARIZONA - 9/11/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 2-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE at SAN FRANCISCO - 9/11/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA at SAN DIEGO - 9/11/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS at NY JETS - 9/11/2011, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, September 12

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NEW ENGLAND at MIAMI - 9/12/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 90-65 ATS (+18.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 90-65 ATS (+18.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 136-104 ATS (+21.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 41-23 ATS (+15.7 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND at DENVER - 9/12/2011, 10:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 29-61 ATS (-38.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
09/06/2011 11:54 PM

NFL
Write-Up


Week 1

Saints @ Packers— Last 12 Super Bowl winners also won their season opener the next season (8-2-2 vs spread). Green Bay won/covered its last four home openers, with three of the four wins by six or less points; four of their last five home openers stayed under the total. Pack is 9-5-1 as home favorite last two years. Saints are 4-8-1 as road underdogs last four years. New Orleans won five of last six season openers- they’ve covered seven of last ten as an underdog in their first road game of the season. Saints are 2-8 in Wisconsin, 1-2 at Lambeau (Pack used to play some home games in Milwaukee). Adding Sproles for Bush gives Saints big upgrade at RB. Home favorites from NFC North are 16-10-1 in non-divisional games the last two years.

Steelers @ Ravens— Last 12 Super Bowl losers are 0-12 vs spread in their season opener the next season (2-10 SU). Baltimore won its last six home openers (over 4-1-1). Just second time in last nine years Steelers opened on road; since 1988, they’re 4-4 SU in Week 1 road openers, but they did start 1-0 last four years (all at home), allowing only 13.3 ppg. Pittsburgh won two of last three visits here, with only loss in OT; they’re 6-2 in last eight series games, beating Ravens in playoffs two of last three years. Pitt covered seven of last nine as a road underdog; since ’04, they’re 11-2 vs spread as dog of 3 or less points. Baltimore covered just two of last nine as divisional home favorite. Five of last six Steeler road openers stayed under total; over is 4-1-1 in Baltimore’s last six home openers.

Lions @ Buccaneers—Road team is 24-6-2 vs spread in Bucs’ games last two years, with Tampa Bay 3-12-1 in last 16 home games (2-2-1 as favorite, 1-10 as dog). Tampa Bay is 7-3 in last ten series games, with five of last seven decided by 4 or less points; Lions are 2-3 in last five visits here, winning 23-20 in OT LY. Detroit is 12-9-2 as road underdog last three years. Bucs won three of last four home openers, allowing 14 or less points in all three wins- under is 5-2-1 in their last eight home openers. Detroit is 2-8 in last ten road openers (3-7 vs spread), with five of last six going over total. Last four years, Bucs are 11-7-1 as single digit favorite. Home favorites from NFC South are 18-10-2 vs spread in non-divisional games the last two years.

Falcons @ Bears – Atlanta lost last four road openers, scoring 7.8 ppg; they lost opener 15-9 in Pittsburgh LY even though Big Ben didn’t play for Steelers. Since 2005, Falcons are 6-2 as non-divisional road favorite. Home side won seven of last nine in series; Atlanta lost last five visits here, dropping 6-0/16-3 decisions in last two. Chicago won five of last six home openers, with three of last four staying under total. Falcons’ last win here was 1983- their last seven road openers stayed under the total. Since ’08, road favorites from AFC South are 11-8-1 in non-divisional games. Home dogs from NFC North are 9-5 in non-divisional games the last two years. Loss of veteran C Kreutz to Saints is big blow for Chicago OL.

Bills @ Chiefs— Cassel practiced Monday, is now expected to play. Chiefs are 1-5-1 as non-divisional home favorite since ’07; over last five years, NFC West home favorites (excluding San Diego) are 8-26-1 vs spread outside their division. Over last three years, AFC East road dogs are 24-14 vs spread as road underdogs in non-divisional games. Bills are 15-9 vs spread on road the last three years (11-8 as road dog), 6-2 vs spread in last nine road openers. Since 1993, under is 16-1-1 in Kansas City home openers, with last nine staying under total; Chiefs are just 4-7 SU in last 11 home openers, 2-5-1 vs spread as favorite in home openers. Buffalo won three of last four in series, losing 13-10 in OT LY; three of last four series totals were 26 or less. Teams split their last six meetings here. Six of Buffalo’s last seven road openers stayed under total.

Colts @ Texans— Looking like Manning isn't playing here, which will send spread skyward. Now or never for Gary Kubiak, with Wade Phillips expected to improve defense, and Indy crippled with either Collins/Painter trying to do the impossible and replace #18. Last two years, home favorites are 9-6 vs spread in AFC South divisional games, with Texans covering four of last six divisional home games. Since 2006, Colts are 9-3 as an underdog. Indy won nine of last 11 road openers, losing 34-24 (-1.5) here LY, just second win for Texans in 18 series games. Colts are 7-2 in nine visits here, with average total in last six, 55.2. Nine of last ten series totals were 47+. Since 1988, Colts are 1-8-1 vs spread as underdog in their road opener.

Eagles @ Rams— Philly is just 3-3 in last six season openers, with last three road openers going over total; they’re 19-13 vs spread on road last four years, 7-4 in last 11 tries as road favorite. Rams lost last four home openers, are 1-7-1 vs spread in last nine; they’re 21-34 as underdogs last four years. Since 2007, St Louis is 7-14 as non-divisional home dog, but were 3-2 LY. Eagles won three of last four series games, with average total 28.5. St Louis is running new offense with increased depth at RB; Eagles are running new defense. Interesting to see if Bradford is allowed to throw downfield more in new offense.

Bengals @ Browns— Losing Palmer at QB, replacing him with rookie Dalton is a uniquely Bengal-like move, refusing to trade the vet QB, even though a trade would help them recoup some value. Cleveland is 1-11 in home openers, losing last six (scored 14 or less points in five of those six)- they’re 0-3 vs spread as a favorite in home openers, 2-6 in last eight games as home favorite, but Browns do seem to be more harmonious with Holmgren running franchise and young QB McCoy showing promise under center. Cincinnati won last four Battles of Ohio, with three of four decided by three or less points; Bengals are 5-3 in last eight visits here, but 13-19 vs spread on road the last four years.

Titans @ Jaguars— Jacksonville is just 8-16 vs spread at home last three years, amid rumors team could be moving to LA; they’re 4-6 in last ten tries as divisional home favorite. New coach, new QB for Tennessee squad that covered last four season openers, winning three of last four road openers. Titans are 6-3 in last nine series games, winning three of last four visits here- they covered five of last six as AFC South road dog. Titans’ last four series wins were all by 7+ points. Jaguars are 10-2 vs spread in last dozen openers, 8-3 in last 11 home openers, but they’ve lost three of last four SU. Under is 10-5-1 in Jaguar home openers, 12-2 in Titans’ last 14 road openers.

Giants @ Redskins—Did any NFL team have worse offseason than Giants, who lost key players without adding anyone of substance, except former 49er C Baas? That said, Big Blue is 9-1 in last ten series games, winning last six in row, holding Redskins to 14 or less points in five of those six games. Giants won their last five visits here by average score of 29-16- they scored 30+ points in four of last five road openers, but haven’t won a Week 1 road game since ’99 in Tampa (0-3 since). Since ’88, Giants are 8-2 vs spread as Week 1 favorite- their last seven road openers went over the total. Redskins won eight of last nine home openers, winning last four; seven of last eight stayed under total (only one of eight totals went over 35).

Panthers @ Cardinals- Arizona traded for Kolb in July, Carolina has a new head coach and three suspects at QB, with rookie Newton probably the best choice, so hard to imagine lot of great offense here. Carolina is 8-3 in last 11 series games, winning last seven in regular season, including last four visits to desert. Redbirds won four of last five home openers, as new domed stadium has given them home field edge at long last, but they’re just 3-7 as home favorite last two years. Very tough to lay points in Week 1 after chaotic offseason, but coaching change of Fox to Rivera doesn’t help the Panthers at all. Four of last five Arizona home openers went over total. Panthers lost six of last eight openers, but both wins were on road.

Seahawks @ 49ers—Both teams have huge questions at QB; can Jackson be the man in Seattle, and just who is the man by the Bay? Home side won last four series games, with Seattle 11-5 in last 16 overall, despite losing last two visits here, 23-10/40-21. 49ers are 10-4-2 as home favorite since ’08; Seattle is 6-19 as road underdog since ’07. Carroll-Harbaugh rivalry figures to intensify here; Harbaugh’s Stanford team once upset Carroll’s Trojans as 42-point underdog in one of biggest college upsets ever. 49ers won five of last six home openers; they’re 6-1-1 vs spread in last eight, with four of last five staying under. Seattle lost its last four road openers, with last three losses by 24-13-17 points; they’re 0-6 vs spread in last six. Home favorites are 18-10 vs spread in NFC West divisional games the last four seasons.

Vikings @ Chargers— Would you lay 8.5 points with Norv Turner in September? Didn’t think so. Expect Minnesota to try and pound ball with Adrian Peterson, taking pressure off new QB McNabb. Vikings are 5-8-1 as road dogs last three years; since 2005, they’re 8-15-1 vs AFC teams. Since ’06, Chargers are 24-14-1 as home favorite, 12-6-1 in last 19 vs non-divisional foes; they’re 17-10-1 vs NFC teams last six years. Under is 5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven road openers, but seven of Chargers’ last eight home openers went over. Vikings lost two of three visits here, with only win 33-31 thirty years ago.

Cowboys @ Jets— Since 1992, Gang Green is 3-16 vs spread in home openers, losing four of last five SU, scoring average of 13.8 ppg in last six- they’re 2-7 in last nine tries as a favorite in home openers. Over last four years, Jets are 8-15-1 vs spread as home favorite (8-8 in non-division, 0-7-2 in divisional games). Since 2003, Cowboys are 12-18-2 vs AFC teams, but are 10-4 in last 14 games as non-divisional road dog. Dallas is 7-2 in series, winning 34-3/17-6 in last two renewals of seldom-played series; Pokes are 5-1 vs Jets here, with only loss in 1990, when they were awful. Over is 12-3 in Cowboys’ last 15 road openers. Not sure its that relevant, but Rex Ryan’s brother Rob is new defensive coordinator for Dallas.

Patriots @ Dolphins— Hard to endorse a team that got booed by its own fans during training camp practices, and I’m not talking about the Patriots. Belichick is 12-5 in last 17 series games, winning three of last four here, with all three wins by 20+ points- average total in last six series games is 52.8. Since 2004, Pats are 26-13 vs spread as a road favorite, 14-5 vs AFC East foes. Miami lost seven of last eight home openers (0-5 vs spread in last five). Miami is 6-9 vs spread as a home dog last four years. Six of Miami’s last nine home openers went over. This is first time in six years Patriots’ first road game isn’t against the Jets.

Raiders @ Broncos— Oakland hasn’t won season opener since ’02, but they won last three visits here and waxed Broncos twice LY, 59-14/39-23; since 2003, Raiders are 29-35 vs spread on road. Denver is 12-27-1 vs spread at home last five years. Fox is terrific coach, but was awful in home openers at Carolina (1-7 vs spread in last eight, 1-6 in last seven SU); Broncos are on 11-game win streak in home openers (9-3 vs spread in last 12 Week 1 home openers). Over is 9-3 in Raiders’ last dozen road openers. Over last five years, road teams are 37-22-1 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Only game this week where both head coaches are in first game with this team.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
151rum Posts:908 Followers:13
09/07/2011 01:43 PM

took the saints last week at +5...and the over 47...like both those...also took seattle+6....i have a thing about opening lines of 5 or 5.5,, been a thing of mine for years and it covers at a good rate and also has the dog winning outright at a decent %..this is based on the line opening at that...and home dogs are even better...this week n.o./seattle/and carolina were the 3 opening at those numbers..we will see it they fare...and it being 1st week see how it goes....the spread of 5 or 5.5 is a weird line for nfl...been doing this for about 10 yrs, always wondered why 5? and before the 2pt conversion even.....so just something to track....i know its done well last few yrs......gl 151

You’ve got to get to the stage in life where going for it is more important than winning or losing.
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
09/07/2011 06:20 PM

Chicago Bears Underdogs At Atlanta Falcons

The ’under’ has cashed in each of the last seven meetings between the Falcons and Bears.
Two NFC playoff teams from a year ago will try to build on that success in their 2011 regular-season opener when the Atlanta Falcons visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday at Soldier Field. Both teams overachieved in earning the top two seeds last season before ultimately losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. The Falcons are sitting as 3-point road favorites according to the Don Best odds screen while the total is 41.

Atlanta finished with the conference’s best record in 2010 at 13-3 but was crushed by Green Bay 48-21 at home in the divisional round of the playoffs. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers shredded the Falcons secondary for 366 yards and three touchdowns on his way to becoming Super Bowl XLV MVP.

Rodgers knocked the Bears out of the playoffs a week later after they finished 11-5 and won the NFC North, outplaying Chicago’s Jay Cutler, who will be looking to put a disastrous performance in that 21-14 loss behind him.

Cutler has improved his footwork and lost some weight in the offseason in hopes of taking the next step in his development. He will be the signal caller in offensive coordinator Mike Martz’s system for the second straight year and looks to increase his touchdowns and cut back his interceptions off a solid season, which ended with him hurt on the sidelines after he suffered a knee injury against Green Bay in the NFC Championship.

The Bears surrendered an NFL-worst 56 sacks last year and selected offensive tackle Gabe Carimi in the first round of the draft to help solve their problems on the line. However, they also lost starting center Olin Kreutz to the New Orleans Saints and will have to deal with an Atlanta defense that added defensive end Ray Edwards, who signed as a free agent from the Minnesota Vikings.

Edwards is very familiar with Chicago and could be a factor in this game.

The Falcons also recently signed veteran cornerback Kelvin Hayden and safety James Sanders to bolster their defense, and they should be more explosive on offense as well with the addition of rookie wide receiver Julio Jones. Injury-plagued wideout Harry Douglas could help too if he can return to the form of his rookie year back in 2008.

Jones and Douglas give quarterback Matt Ryan a couple more weapons in addition to the reigning NFL receptions leader in Roddy White.

Atlanta finished 0-4 in the preseason, but few are concerned considering a lot of emphasis was put on quickly developing Jones into a playmaker. The Falcons have won the last two meetings with the Bears both straight up and against the spread, but both of those games were at home.

Atlanta's recent covers broke a Chicago 5-0-1 ATS streak, and the ‘under’ has cashed in the last seven games between them.

The weather forecast for the Windy City on Sunday calls for a high temperature of 79 degrees under mostly sunny skies.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
09/07/2011 06:31 PM

Buffalo Bills At KC Chiefs NFL Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills have covered six of the last seven matchups against the Chiefs.
Following a disappointing preseason during which they finished as one of three winless teams in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs will begin the 2011 NFL regular season with a clean slate on Sunday when they host the Buffalo Bills.

Usually, failing to win a game in the preseason would not be much of a concern, especially considering the Chiefs made the playoffs last year. But they also suffered some key injuries that could impact whether or not they return to the postseason.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by CBS. Kansas City is listed as a 6-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen with a total of 39 ½.

The defending AFC West champions went 10-6 last season but averaged just 10.5 points in four preseason games and saw starting quarterback Matt Cassel suffer a rib injury in the finale at Green Bay. Cassel is expected to start, but they are very thin at the position with only veteran Tyler Palko and rookie Ricky Stanzi behind him.

The team also lost starting tight end Tony Moeaki for the season due to a knee injury after he was one of Cassel’s top targets a year ago with 47 catches for 556 yards and three touchdowns.

Defensively, Kansas City figures to be just as solid as last season, and the unit may be counted on to limit the opposition even more if the offense continues to struggle. Safety Eric Berry is in just his second year for the Chiefs but is already considered one of the best at his position while linebackers Derrick Johnson and Tamba Hali are also elite players.

Buffalo did not fare much better in the preseason at 1-3, but the team is also not coming off a playoff year. The Bills finished 4-12 last season, showing some promise in going 2-2 in their last four games.

However, their last two games came against the AFC East’s two best teams and resulted in two losses by a combined score of 72-10.

Despite showing a need for a franchise quarterback over the past few years, Buffalo has selected players at different positions recently in the NFL draft to fill other holes. Ryan Fitzpatrick starts his third season under center for the Bills and will have running backs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller splitting carries behind him in the backfield. Spiller was the team’s first-round draft pick last year and saw limited action, carrying the ball 74 times for 283 yards while Jackson saw a majority of the work with 222 carries for 927 yards.

The Bills selected defensive end Marcell Dareus out of Alabama with the third overall pick this year, and they are hoping he will be able to team with linebackers Shawne Merriman and Nick Barnett to give them a bit of a mean streak. They have played outstanding defense in the last two meetings with Kansas City over the past two years, both of which were played at Arrowhead Stadium.

Buffalo went 1-1 straight up in those games but covered each of them against the spread. In fact, the Chiefs are just 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings with the ‘under’ going 8-1 in the past nine.

The weather in Kansas City on Sunday is expected to be mostly sunny and warm with a high temperature of 84 degrees.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
09/07/2011 06:32 PM

Cincinnati Bengals Visit Cleveland Browns Week 1

The Cincinnati Bengals are 15-22 when playing the Browns in Cleveland.
A pair of AFC North rivals square off in Week 1, as the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Cleveland Browns Sunday afternoon at Cleveland Browns Stadium. The opening kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 (ET) and will be televised on CBS.

The betting odds show Cleveland opening up as a 3-point home favorite and since moving to nearly a touchdown in most spots. The total has made a 2-point move downwards to its current standing of 35 ½.

Both teams covered the number on their home turf in last year’s series, as the Browns captured a 23-20 win as 1½-point underdogs on Oct. 3, while the Bengals earned revenge in a 19-17 victory as a slim 1-point favorite.

This particular meeting will mark the sixth time the Buckeye State rivals have opened regular season play against each other with Cleveland holding in a 3-2 advantage. In fact, the Browns are 5-4 all-time when opening up against a divisional opponent.

Second-year quarterback Colt McCoy assumed the starting role for Cleveland under center during the preseason, dropping three consecutive games straight up and against the spread. The Browns startd the preseason with a 27-17 victory over the Green Bay Packers as 2½-point home favorites.

McCoy played in eight games in 2010 and completed 135-of-222 passes for 1,576 yards with six touchdowns to go alongside nine interceptions.

He will have the luxury of handing the ball off to running back Peyton Hillis, who earned the distinction of being placed on the Madden 2012 cover during the offseason. The former Arkansas Razorbacks runner gained a team-high 1,177 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns last year.

Bettors will definitely be wary of backing the Browns due to not playing a single game as a home favorite of 3½-7 points over the last two seasons. The ‘over’ is 9-7 in their last 16 contests playing in front of the Dawg Pound.

Cincinnati leads the “Battle of Ohio” by a 39-36 count in the previous 75 meetings, but has tallied a lackluster 15-22 mark when playing as the road team. The Bengals are 7-9 ATS in their last 16 games away from home.

Head coach Marvin Lewis begins his ninth season at the helm and is looking to bounce back from a disappointing 4-12 finish during the 2010 season.

A new-look team will be under his direction in Cincinnati, including two fresh faces offensively. The Bengals selected quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green in this year’s draft to replace veterans Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco respectively. It’s going to take time for the duo to develop, as the offense mustered up just 47 combined points in four preseason games, finishing with a 1-3 SU and ATS mark.

The ‘under’ is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two franchises, while the underdog has ended up with the cash in seven of eight.

Weather forecasts are calling for game-time highs in the low-70s and a 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
09/07/2011 06:34 PM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Host Detroit Lions

Warm and muggy with a chance of rain is in Sunday’s forecast for Tampa Bay.
The Detroit Lions were the toast of the 2011 NFL preseason by beating the spread in all four games and will now aim to extend their regular-season win streak to five games.

Tampa Bay just missed the 2010 playoffs by finishing the year with a 10-6 straight up record and will begin its third season under the direction of coach Raheem Morris.

The two teams square off at Raymond James Stadium Sunday, with the opening kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. (ET), and will be broadcast to television viewers on FOX.

Tampa Bay was sent out in the betting odds as 3-point home favorites once the NFL lockout was lifted, but that number been bet down to one and even a pick 'em in some spots due to Detroit’s preseason exploits. The total has stayed relatively stable near its current standing of 41.

The Buccaneers will be led offensively by third-year starter Josh Freeman, coming off a 2010 campaign that saw him toss 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. He is also somewhat of a dual-threat in the pocket and finished second in the league in rushing yards by a quarterback.

On the other side of the ball, it’s questionable whether a pair of defensive end selections in this year’s draft will improve a Bucs defense that ranked 31st in the NFL against the pass. Adrian Clayborn and Da’Quan Bowers will be coming off the edges and join 2010 third overall pick, Gerald McCoy.

Bettors will find that the Buccaneers are 3-11 against the spread in home games over the past two years, while the total is evenly split at 7-7 'over/under' in that span.

Detroit will be seen as an offensive juggernaut by the betting public after scoring 30 or more points in three of four exhibition contests. The entire season rests on the right shoulder of third-year signal caller Matthew Stafford.

The former No. 1 pick has played just 13 career games under center due to injuries, but just finished off a stellar preseason. He completed over 77 percent of his passes and tossed five touchdowns without throwing an interceptions.

Stafford didn’t participate in Detroit’s 23-20 win as 3 ½-point road underdogs last year when the Lions punished the Buccaneers on the ground by gaining 181 yards on 28 carries. Lions head coach Jim Schwartz is hoping to apply more pressure to Freeman this year, as he connected on 21-of-32 pass attempts for 251 yards and a touchdown in giving a spirited effort.

Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh will be leading the effort to get after the Buccaneers quarterback and will be joined by right defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch. The duo will not have first-round pick Nick Fairley by their sides, as the former Auburn Tigers star has been ruled out with a foot injury that he suffered during the preseason.

It may not matter who makes it on the field in this one, as the Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in Tampa Bay.

Weather forecasts are suggesting game-time highs to reach the low-90s in the Tampa Bay area and a 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: