cnotes Posts:24902 Followers:33
09/07/2011 06:35 PM

Jaguars Open Season Against Rival Tennessee Titans

The ’under’ is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Titans and Jaguars.
Professional football is finally back and Sunday’s first week of NFL action includes an AFC South grudge match between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. (ET) from EverBank Field.

The Jags were a 3-point favorite when some huge news came down the pipe, causing the line to go off the board. On Tuesday, just five days before the team’s opener, the Jaguars released veteran starting quarterback David Garrard.

There are now a wide variety of odds, but the Don Best odds screen currently has Jacksonville -2½ with a low total set at 37.

Head coach Jack Del Rio and GM Gene Smith, who is doing a masterful job in his third year rebuilding this roster, made it clear that this decision was purely football related. It should not be ignored, however, that Garrard would have made around $8 million had he been on the roster on Sunday.

Instead, eighth year journemany Luke McCown out of Lousiana Tech will get the start in Week 1.

This has an eerily similar feel to the very situation when Garrard first became the starter back in 2007, taking over for Byron Leftwich who was surprisingly let go. The Jaguars actually went on to defeat the Steelers in Pittsburgh during the playoffs that season.

Jacksonville has a couple of the factors that many thought would be important coming out of a lockout. They have a veteran head coach, both coordinators returning and McCown has at least been in their system for two years.

Owner Wayne Weaver has already stated that if the Jags do not make the playoffs, Del Rio will be gone. Rookie Blaine Gabbert is the QB of the future; McCown starts Week 1. Time will tell how long Gabbert holds the clipboard.

On the Tennessee side there is a rookie head coach, a new QB and their entire offseason was highlighted by a holdout from their best player, Chris Johnson.

Tennessee’s top-2 passers from a year ago are gone and that might be best. However, the Titans picked up a QB on the backside of his career in Matt Hasselbeck. With Hasselbeck, the Titans get a player who can play lights out (as in the Seahawks’ improbable victory over the Saints in last year’s playoffs), but also one who has not thrown more TDs than interceptions in any of the last three seasons. The Titans' rookie QB-in-waiting is former Washington Huskies star Jake Locker.

Of course, they are a running team and the offense will revolve around Johnson. He will start this game but it is yet to be seen how he will play after being out for the entire preseason.

Someone who has been working hard is star running back Maurice Jones-Drew. MoJo suffered from a knee injury throughout 2010 but did not do anything about it until the last couple weeks when Jacksonville’s playoff hopes were on life support. The coaching staff left him and defensive end Aaron Kampman out until Week 4 of the preseason, staying on the safe side with their rehab from injury.

These teams have long been about running the ball and defense. However, in 2010 defense was a problem for both as the Titans and Jags were No. 26 and No. 28 in total ‘D,’ respectively.

Tennessee had an underrated free agent signing in linebacker Barrett Ruud as well as drafting another, Akeem Ayers from UCLA.

Jacksonville put a major emphasis on the defensive side signing a ton of solid, key free agents including linebackers Paul Posluszny and Clint Session, safety Dawan Landry and nickel-back Drew Coleman. Safety play for the Jaguars may have been one of the biggest issues of any NFL team a year ago. They were San Diego Chargers special teams bad.

Last year’s No. 10 pick in the 2010 draft, defensive tackle Tyson Alualu, has been the best looking player on the Jaguars in practice and the preseason. He could have a breakout year. Add Kampman back to the mix along with an extremely good and underrated player in their other DT, Terrance Knighton, and this defensive line may wreak havoc.

This series has been odd of late. In the past four games, the teams have split wins evenly and every game was a double-digit victory. Furthermore, they each won at home in 2009 and each won on the road in 2010.

One of the best trends to look at in this game is that Jacksonville is 10-2 against the spread in their last 12 season openers. Each team has multiple trends shading to the ‘over’ but the 'under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Temperatures should be about 85 degrees with a chance of thunderstorms at kickoff. Even if the weather is not beautiful, the return of NFL Sundays sure is.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24902 Followers:33
09/07/2011 06:37 PM

Professor prefers Philip

September 7, 2011

MVP Prop Play

Here is a prop play that is loaded with line value. San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers to win the Most Valuable Player! Right now you can get at least 12/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $1,200) at some betting shops. Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have won two MVP’s each in the last four years. Rivers has a real shot this season. I believe that his main competition is coming from another pair of gunslingers in Green Bay’s Aaron Rogers and New Orleans’ Drew Brees.

San Diego’s 9-7 record last season was a fluke that was caused by atrocious special teams play. With the receiving core that Rivers has, he should put up some HUGE numbers in the weak AFC West. Last season, the Chargers were swept by the Raiders. This season, they will be primed for revenge and Nnamdi Asomugha is not in the Raiders’ secondary anymore. The Denver Broncos have a terrible defense and Kansas City is in for a butt-kicking because the Chiefs had the nerve to win their division last season.

The Chargers lost three games last season when they were more than seven-point favorites. Why? Because they came out of the locker room flat and overconfident and they featured their rushing and short passing game. They lost 20-17 to the Rams laying eight, 28-13 laying 13 to the Raiders and 34-20 to the Bengals laying 7 ½-points. In the first quarter of these three games the Chargers were outscored 31-0. That’s right! They were outscored 31-0 in the first quarter despite the fact that they were laying more than a TD. Hopefully, head coach Norv Turner will learn that you have to let this team play THEIR game even against weak opponent. They have to CRUSH weak opposition EARLY in the game. They have to come out firing. When you come out passively, it just gives the underdog hope. Turner has to loosen the reins on this team and let them fly. Norv needs to channel the ghost of Don Coryell and let Rivers throw the ball on virtually every down.

The Chargers will be underdogs only twice this season – at New England in Week 2 and at New York against the Jets in Week 7. The Patriots will be off a Monday Night Football affair with the Dolphins AND the Jets will be also be coming off a MNF divisional battle with the Dolphins. Teams have usually suffered the week after battling the Dolphins and this should give Rivers the edge. In addition, Rivers and the Chargers will have an extra week to prepare for the Jets' defense since Week 6 is San Diego’s bye.

Another reason why we lean toward Rivers is that the Chargers’ defense is much better than that of the Colts or the Patriots. This means that the Chargers’ offense will spend more time on the field and, hence, have more scoring opportunities.

Philip Rivers led the league in passing yards in 2010 despite the fact that he had 117 fewer attempts than Drew Brees and 138 fewer attempts than Peyton Manning.

Finally, the Chargers have a QUALITY offensive line that has been playing together for some time now and in pass protection, this is important.

This is a nice price for a Pro-Bowl QB that has the consensus best set of receivers in the entire league.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24902 Followers:33
09/07/2011 06:39 PM

Back the Pack, Fade Pitt?

September 7, 2011

After a long summer and short offseason due to the lockout, the NFL regular season will kickoff Thursday with Green Bay hosting New Orleans in the primetime opener from Lambeau Field. The battle between the defending champions from the last two years should be intriguing since both clubs are considered public favorites.
So do you bet on the Packers, who ripped off four straight wins and covers during last year’s Super Bowl run and hope the momentum carries over to this year? Or do you hope that the Saints get back on track after getting upset to Seattle as 9 ½-point road favorites in the first round of last year’s playoffs?

In late April, the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book opened Green Bay as a five-point favorite and the number has been hovering between four and 4 ½-points this week.

Even though some clubs play poorly as the hunted rather than the hunted, the Super Bowl champions haven’t fallen too quickly from the pedestal, especially in their Week 1 openers!

Eleven years and counting now, the defending champion has won its opener, which might not come as a big surprise to you since they’re usually at home and listed as a favorite as well. What might impress you is the champions mark against the spread over this stretch, which stands at 8-2-1.

Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2010)
Year SB Winner Opponent Result
2011 Green Bay New Orleans
2010 New Orleans (-4.5) Minnesota 14-9 (Cover)
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) Tennessee 13-10 (Non-Cover)
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) Washington 16-7 (Cover)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) New Orleans 41-10 (Cover)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) Miami 30-20 (Cover)
2005 New England (-7.5) Oakland 30-20 (Cover)
2004 New England (-3) Indianapolis 27-24 (Push)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) Philadelphia 17-0 (Cover)
2002 New England (PK) Pittsburgh 30-14 (Cover)
2001 Baltimore (-10) Chicago 17-6 (Cover)
2000 St. Louis (-7) Denver 41-36 (Non-Cover)


Looking at the table above, gamblers can see that the Saints were able to keep the streak going last year with a 14-9 victory over the Vikings. Some gamblers may’ve gotten a push (-5) or a loss (-5.5) but the closing number (4.5) came down after Brett Favre laced it up for Minnesota.

Can the Saints snap this streak and capture the road win on Thursday? Host of the VI Power Hours and handicapper Brian Edwards doesn’t have a good feel on the game but is looking at the total.

He said, “New Orleans made a few off-season changes after losing at Seattle in last year’s playoffs. The Saints got rid of Reggie Bush and added Darren Sproles, while also drafting RB Mark Ingram, who gives them a bruising back that can do damage between the tackles. These changes should help Drew Brees and Sean Payton’s lethal aerial attack. One negative for New Orleans in Week 1 will be the absence of pass-rushing specialist Will Smith, who is suspended for two games.”

“Green Bay basically stood pat with its roster and had no major defections. Therefore, once again, the Packers have as much talent as any team in the NFL. They have an excellent chance to repeat if Aaron Rodgers, who is just entering his prime, can stay healthy.

Maybe my opinion will change later in the week, but right now the side is a pass for me. Even though 47 is a high number, I’ll be giving the ‘over’ some major consideration with two of the NFL’s top-five QBs on the field.”

Green Bay was 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS at home last season, while New Orleans was 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS on the road. Keep in mind that five of the six wins by the Saints came against non-playoff teams.

Another team that was solid to back on the road in 2010 was Pittsburgh, who went 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS, the lone loss coming against the aforementioned Saints (10-20).

The Steelers’ success on the road this season might start out slow, especially if the Super Bowl loser trend continues in Week 1. The situation has been just as strong as the above angle that focuses on Green Bay and sometimes more valuable not just for the opening week but the entire season.

Gamblers have watched the loser of the last year’s Super Bowl go 2-10 SU and 1-10-1 ATS in Week 1 over the past 12 seasons.

Super Bowl Loser - Week 1 History (1999-2010)
Year Loser Opponent Line Result
2011 Pittsburgh at Baltimore
2010 Indianapolis at Houston -2.5 Loss 27-34
2009 Arizona vs. San Francisco -6.5 Loss 16-20
2008 New England vs. Kansas City -16 Win 17-10
2007 Chicago at San Diego +6 Loss 3-14
2006 Seattle at Detroit -6 Win 9-6
2005 Philadelphia at Atlanta -1 Loss 10-14
2004 Carolina vs. Green Bay -3 Loss 14-24
2003 Oakland at Tennessee +3 Loss 20-25
2002 St. Louis at Denver -3 Loss 16-23
2001 N.Y. Giants vs. San Francisco +3 Loss 13-16
2000 Tennessee at Buffalo PK Loss 13-16
1999 Atlanta at Minnesota +4 Loss 14-17 (Cover)


Pittsburgh will travel to Baltimore on Sunday and the number has been bouncing all around, with the Ravens listed as short favorites between one and two points at most books. Is the line right?

Edwards explains, “This could be the first of three head-to-head meetings between Baltimore and Pittsburgh this season. I like what the Ravens did with the acquisition of WR Lee Evans, who can stretch the field with his speed. There’s been a lot of preseason talk about Baltimore’s defense starting to age, but I’ll still happily take Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs on my squad. Plus, the Ravens get cover corner Domonique Foxworth back after he missed last year with an injury. If the number stays south of three, I lean to Baltimore at home.”

Pittsburgh did take two of three from Baltimore last season, including a 31-24 win in the playoffs. Despite that, most gamblers following this head-to-head rivalry are well aware that nine of the last 10 meetings in this series have been decided by seven or less, including six outcomes by four or less.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24902 Followers:33
09/07/2011 06:41 PM

Saints at Packers

September 7, 2011

The NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the last two Super Bowl champions hooking up at Lambeau Field. The Packers start their title defense against a Saints' team that was upset in the Wild Card round against the 7-9 Seahawks. The pressure lies on Green Bay's shoulders in the opener as the Pack tries to prove that last year's run to a championship wasn't a fluke.

In spite of losing six games last season, Mike McCarthy's squad never dropped a contest by more than four points. The Packers won six straight elimination games down the stretch en route to their title, including home victories over the Giants and Bears in the final two weeks of the regular season just to make the playoffs. Green Bay took care of business as short road underdogs at Philadelphia and Atlanta in the first two rounds of the playoffs, while winning as favorites over Chicago in the NFC Title game and Pittsburgh in Super Bowl XLV.

The Saints experienced the thrill of a first Super Bowl triumph in February 2010, but the hangover was evident this past season as New Orleans started 4-3. Sean Payton's club reeled off six straight wins, while settling for second place in the NFC South behind Atlanta at 11-5. Unfortunately, the Saints needed to travel cross-country for a Wild Card matchup at Seattle, even though the Seahawks were below .500. New Orleans squandered an early 10-0 lead and lost outright, 41-36 as 10-point road favorites, bringing their Super Bowl defense to a grinding halt.

For as little as preseason means (especially this season), the Packers bounced back from an opening week loss at Cleveland to capture three straight wins. However, Green Bay went 2-2 in the 2010 preseason on its way to a Super Bowl title. On the flip side, the Saints split their four preseason games, including a trouncing of Oakland on national television in Week 3 by a 40-20 count as 4 ½-point favorites.

New Orleans is making its first trip to Lambeau Field since Drew Brees' first season with the Saints in 2006. The Saints grabbed a 34-27 victory in Week 2 as two-point favorites, as New Orleans began that season at 5-1. Green Bay couldn't return the favor when the two teams met on a Monday night at the Superdome in 2008 when the Saints obliterated the Packers, 51-29 as one-point 'chalk.'

The defending Super Bowl champion has fared well since they started their season on Thursday nights back in 2004. In each instance, the home team has come out on top, while compiling a 5-1-1 ATS record with the only teams failing to cash tickets being the 2004 Patriots and the 2009 Steelers. VegasInsider.com's Chris David chronicles this fantastic trend right here, which actually stretches all the way back to 2000 with the defending champion winning 11 straight times in the following season openers.

The Saints own a 4-1 SU/ATS mark in season openers under Payton, with the lone loss coming on a Thursday night at Indianapolis to start the 2007 season (Colts in the defending champ role). The Packers have matched the Saints' prowess in season openers with a 4-1 SU/ATS ledger under McCarthy, while winning four consecutive Week 1 contests since getting blanked by the Bears at home in 2006.

The Packers are listed as a four-point favorite at most sportsbooks with several places moving Green Bay to 4 ½. The total is set at 47 ½ across the board, as the game can be seen nationally on NBC at 8:30 PM EST.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24902 Followers:33
09/08/2011 06:48 PM

NCAAF


Thursday, September 8

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Saints at Packers: What bettors need to know
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New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-4, 47)

THE STORY: A high-octane matchup between the past two Super Bowl winners kicks off the season when the New Orleans Saints visit the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night. Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to three playoff road wins en route to a Super Bowl victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers last season. The Saints' hopes of repeating were dashed with a stunning playoff loss at Seattle.

TV: NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET

ABOUT GREEN BAY (2010: 10-6, 2nd, NFC North): Rodgers capped a spectacular season by throwing for nine touchdowns and rushing for two more in four postseason games. He gets two big weapons back in RB Ryan Grant and TE Jermichael Finley, who missed much of last season due to injuries. Linebacker Clay Matthews (13.5 sacks) leads a defense that ranked second in the league with 15.0 points allowed per game. Green Bay led the NFC in sacks (47) and interceptions (24) last season.

ABOUT NEW ORLEANS (2010: 11-5, 2nd NFC South): With a running game that was decimated by injuries, QB Drew Brees tossed 33 scoring passes but had a career-high 22 interceptions last season. The Saints moved to rectify that issue by drafting former Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and signing San Diego's Darren Sproles to take the place of Reggie Bush. They also added a lot of mass on the other side of the ball in defensive tackles Shaun Rogers and Aubrayo Franklin.

LINE MOVES: The Packers opened as high as 5-point favorites but have been bet down to -4. The total opened around 47 and has seen slight movement as some books.

EXTRA POINTS:

* The similarities between Saints coach Sean Payton and Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy are striking. Both men are the same age (47) and are starting their sixth season with their respective clubs, with Payton (49-31) owning one more win than McCarthy (48-32). They were hired six days apart in January 2006 and each man is the 14th coach in the history of their franchises. Oh, and both have a Super Bowl ring as head coach.

* Saints defensive end Will Smith was suspended for the first two games of the season for using a banned diuretic in a weight-loss supplement. The suspension was originally levied by the NFL in 2008, but dragged through the courts for over two years.

* The teams haven't played since November 2008, when the Saints steamrolled Green Bay 51-29 behind 323 yards and four TD passes from Brees.

TRENDS:

- Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
- Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Saints are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 1.
- Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as favorites.
- Under is 9-3 in Saints last 12 games in Week 1.
- Under is 6-1 in Packers last seven games in Week 1.

PREDICTION: Packers 37, Saints 34. Rodgers and Brees will light up the scoreboard, but the home-field advantage and a stauncher defense will allow Green Bay to barely fend off New Orleans. Not to mention they have a more reliable kicker in Mason Crosby.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24902 Followers:33
09/08/2011 06:53 PM

Thursday, September 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 8:30 PM ET New Orleans +4.5 500

Green Bay - Under 47.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24902 Followers:33
09/08/2011 07:08 PM

Week 1 Tip Sheet

September 8, 2011

The Week 1 NFL card provides bettors with 13 games on Sunday, as seven playoff teams from last season kick off their season at 1:00 PM EST. There are several key contests involving clubs that both made the second round, including the Falcons battling the Bears while the Ravens host the Steelers. We'll begin with the team that has caught everyone's eye in this brief offseason as the Eagles showcase their talents in Eastern Missouri.

Eagles (-4 ½, 43) at Rams - 1:00 PM EST

Philadelphia made headlines with a multitude of big-name signings following the lockout, as the Eagles look to capitalize off last season's NFC East title. Andy Reid's squad was a coin-flip proposition against the number last season by finishing 8-9 ATS, while not covering three straight games at any point. It will not be an easy task for Philadelphia as it takes on a St. Louis team that made a drastic improvement in 2010.

The Rams won more games last season (7) than they did in the previous three years combined (6), while pulling off three outright home underdog wins in the first six weeks of the season. St. Louis' offense wasn't outstanding, but the defense held seven of its first eight opponents to 18 points or less, turning the Rams into one of the best 'under' bets in the NFL. The Rams can't afford to get behind the eight-ball in the weak NFC West with four of their first five games coming against teams that won at least 10 games last season.

Steelers at Ravens (-1 ½, 36) - 1:00 PM EST

These two AFC North powers have seen each of their previous seven meetings decided by seven points or less, while Pittsburgh took two of three matchups from Baltimore last season. The Steelers are seeking their ninth straight opening week victory, including a 6-2 ATS mark in this stretch. The Ravens, meanwhile, cashed in just three of eight home games in 2010, while losing at home to Pittsburgh, 13-10 as three-point favorites.

Mike Tomlin's club hasn't been listed as an underdog many times in his four-year tenure, owning a 6-6 ATS record when receiving points. Regardless of the result on Sunday, the Steelers should cruise the next six weeks with matchups against the Seahawks, Colts, Texans, Titans, Jaguars, and Cardinals prior to a showdown versus the Patriots on October 30 at Heinz Field.

Falcons (-3, 40 ½) at Bears - 1:00 PM EST

Chicago finished one game short of the Super Bowl thanks to a 21-14 loss to the eventual champion Packers in the NFC Title game, as the Bears welcome in the highly-touted Falcons. Atlanta has yet to win a playoff game with Matt Ryan at quarterback, but the Falcons are expected to do big things once again in 2011 after covering 11 of 17 games last season.

Three of the first four games are away from the Georgia Dome for the Falcons, as Mike Smith's team looks to capitalize off a 6-2 ATS mark on the highway last season, including a 5-1 ATS ledger as road 'chalk.' The Falcons are making their first trip to Soldier Field since 2005 when the Bears pulled out a December victory, 16-3 as 3 ½-point favorites. Chicago has won five of its previous six home openers under Lovie Smith, including twice as short underdogs against Detroit (2005) and Pittsburgh (2009).

Bills at Chiefs (-6, 40) - 1:00 PM EST

Kansas City captured the AFC West title by taking care of its business outside of the division with an 8-3 SU/ATS mark. Four of the Chiefs' first five opponents are non-division foes as Todd Haley's club welcomes in the Bills to Arrowhead Stadium. Buffalo pushed Kansas City to the limit last October by cashing as seven-point favorites in a 13-10 overtime setback.

In spite of starting last season with eight consecutive losses, the Bills managed to cover five of their final eight games down the stretch, including outright wins at Cincinnati and Miami. Somehow, the Bills are pointspread gold in the opening week of the season with Week 1 covers in five of the last six seasons. The Chiefs aren't a great play as favorites under Haley by posting a 4-7 ATS record when laying points, even though Kansas City went 3-3 ATS as home 'chalk' last season.

What else to watch for:

The Giants head into Washington looking to beat the Redskins for the sixth straight time at FedEx Field in one of the four late kickoffs. Seven of the Redskins' eight home games last season were decided by six points or less, while holding five opponents at home to less than 17 points.

The Seahawks won the NFC West with a 7-9 record, but most of that damage was done at Qwest Field. Seattle picked up just two victories on the highway, dropping its road record to 5-20 SU since the start of 2008. Amazingly, 19 of those 20 losses have come by double-digits as the Niners enter Sunday's opener as five-point favorites.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24902 Followers:33
09/08/2011 07:16 PM

Las Vegas Money Moves

September 8, 2011

It was almost like betting heaven watching all the initial betting action on the college football lines Monday afternoon, the first of it's kind in this young season. Each book's opening lines immediately tell you where the numbers will go, and who they wanted to take their first bet on, but to actually watch it all unfold for the first time this year was invigorating.

Football season is upon us and we'll be at full throttle all weekend beginning Thursday night with the Saints/Packers and Arizona/Oklahoma State all the way through the double-header Monday night football action. The overload of football is going to come in strong and heavy doses, so be prepared and stay hydrated.

Last week was the first slate of college football play on the field, but the lines had been up for three months making the week of their first game not as intense at the windows with a late money push coming on game day.

Pro football has the same type of situation this week where their games have been open since April so there wasn't really any rush to the bet windows other than trying to get action on the Texans as it became more apparent that Peyton Manning would not start for the first time in his career.

But at what point is it that the drop off from not having Manning is too much? Most sportsbooks have settled on the Texans being an 8 ½-point favorite after initially opening it -6 ½ when news broke that he likely wouldn't play. The early line had the Colts as a 1-point favorite before knowing the severity of Manning's neck problems. We're talking almost a 10-point swing here....for one player? That is crazy! It's unheard of -- and likely too overpriced -- but how else are you going to sell Kerry Collins to the public?

Sportsbooks that have tested the waters with Houston -9 have quickly got action on the Colts, so we know that is threshold. Most sportsbook directors feel the game is way too high, but have reacted quickly with moves on low limits as the bets have come in. The feeling amongst many of the books is that the line should be around -6 ½, but at this point they're just moving with the action. As we get closer to kickoff, it wouldn't be a surprise to see heavy action come in on the Colts when the game is taken out of the circle, or limited action.

If you're a sharp bettor with an opinion on the game, why would you waste your valuable opinion for sportsbooks to follow for a mere $2,000 when you can wait and get $20,000 on it?

As for the value of Manning, he is without a doubt the most valuable player to any team, but probably is still worth only seven points. He has taken a mediocre team the last few seasons and routinely made them a championship caliber squad just because of how well he operates the offense on the fly.

His impact will also be felt on an emotional level with his teammates. It's much easier to play well and wait for the other team to make mistakes when you're always ahead or in close games. What's going to happen if the Colts get down to a team they have virtually owned knowing they don't have No. 18 back there to lead the charge back. Kerry Collins is a serviceable quarterback, but he hasn't had time to mesh with the team and even had the Colts star receiver, Reggie Wayne, being vocal about him being named the starter in preseason.

Sharp moves of the week include the Steelers, Rams and Saints. The public plays will continue to be with the Browns, Texans, Falcons, Eagles, Giants, Cardinals and Patriots.

The surprise off the public list this week is the Chargers as it looks like last season is still stinging with many of their backers. Reports have seen pretty balanced action, or at least far less one-sided than most Charger games, with the Vikings finding some supporters in hopes of Norv Turner remaining Norv Turner this season.

Here's a look at the biggest movers in pro football through Thursday compared to the Las Vegas Hilton's initial week one opening lines of April 23:

The Ravens opened -3 (EV) against the Steelers and are now -1 ½.

The Buccaneers opened as 3-point home favorites against the Lions, got early Lions money and have now bounced around from -1 ½ to -2 where it sits now.

Chicago opened as 1-point favorites and are now +3 (-120) against the Falcons.

Kansas City opened -6 ½ against the Bills, dropped to -5 ½ and then bet back up to -6.

Cleveland opened -3 (EV) against the Bengals and quickly moved up to -6 ½.

Jacksonville was a -2 ½ home favorite against Tennessee, went up to -3, and then off the board when David Garrard was released. It went back up as Jacksonville -2 and has stayed there showing the lack of respect for Garrard and also showing the impact of great QB's when comparing Manning.

Arizona opened as a 3-point home favorite against Carolina and were quickly bet up to -7 after watching Kolb and Fitzgerald play catch in the pre-season.

The 49ers were -6 ½ against the Seahawks and have been bet down to -5.

San Diego opened -10 ½ and were bet against early down to -9 and finally -8 ½ where it sits now.

The Jets opened -4 and were bet up to -4 ½, then got action on Thursday forcing a move to the dead number of -5 ½, skipping -5 altogether.

New England opened -3 ½ and has been bet up to -7.

Denver opened as -1 ½ home-favorites and were moved to -3 on a combination of bets and air moves due to Broncos looking much improved and the Raiders looking awful in pre-season.

College Football Moves of the Week:

Wisconsin got early sharp action at -19 ½ and was bet up to -21 where it sits now against Oregon State.

Kentucky moved from -11 ½ to -13 in their home against Central Michigan.

SMU opened as a -17-point home favorite against UTEP and moved quickly up the ladder to -20 until finding some takers dropping it back to -19 where it sits now.

Tulane has found a lot of sharp play at +14 all the way down to +11 ½, where it sits now, for their home game against Tulsa.

East Carolina has been bet on for their home game against Virginia Tech taking +20 all the way down to +17 ½ where it sits now.

Washington was mysteriously put up as a -3 ½-point favorite in what looks kind of like a shady opening number that many sports books followed and was quickly bet up to -6 against Hawaii where it sits now.

Stanford found some early action at -20 ½ at Duke, but sharp action took the +21 dropping the game back down where the public will continue to lay Stanford.

Florida has been bet from -21 ½ to -23 in their home game against UAB.

USC opened -10 in their home game against Utah have been bet against down to -8 ½.

Ball State sharp action came fast at +22 ½ for their road game at South Florida and currently sits at -20.

Vanderbilt was a surprise pick'em for their home game against Connecticut, and even more surprisingly, was bet up to a 2-point favorite. UConn money has showed a little and it currently sits at Vandy -1 ½.

Arkansas State has moved from -13 ½ to -15 against Memphis.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24902 Followers:33
09/08/2011 07:33 PM

NFL Tech Trends - Week 1

September 6, 2011

Thursday, Sept. 8 - NBC, 8:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

NO at GB

The Saints have won and covered last three and five of past six openers. Although NO only 3-6 vs. line away LY and 6-7 as dog since 2007. Pack has won and covered last four openers, however. Pack also “under” 12-6 LY. Tech edge...slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends.



Sunday, Sept. 11 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Pitt at Balt

Pitt 5-1-1 vs. line last 7 meetings and has covered last three in series at Baltimore. Mike Tomlin 9-4 as dog since 2007. John Harbaugh has won and covered his last three openers. Steelers, based on series trends.

Detroit at Tampa Bay

Old rivals from the days of the former NFC Central. Lions were pointspread demons last season when covering 13 of 16. Detroit also “over” 12-6-2 in last 20 games. Lions also 7-1 vs. line last 8 vs. TB since 2000. Bucs have offered poor spread value at home since Raheem Morris took over in 2009, just 2-5-1 at Raymond James Stadium LY, 3-12-1 since 2009. Back a bit further, TB 3-15-1 against spread last 19 at home. Lions and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Atlanta at Chicago

Falcons 6-2 vs. line away LY and now 14-6 against number last 20 on road. Lovie just 1-3 vs. number last four openers. Falcons, based on team trends.

Buffalo at Kansas City

Bills actually 5-3 vs. line away LY and 9-5 vs. spread last 14 as visitor. Buffalo has also covered the last three years vs. KC and the last four meetings overall since 2005. Chiefs covered 5 of 8 at home LY but had recorded poor 6-17 spread mark at Arrowhead from 2007-09. Bills, based on team and series trends.

Indy at Houston

Colts have only covered one of last five at Reliant Stadium, and that was with Peyton Manning available. Indy 10-5-1 vs. line away since ‘09, but again, that was with Peyton Manning. Indy “over” 7-1 away LY and 12-5 “over” on road since ‘09. Kubiak “over” 13-5 last 18 since late ‘09, and “over” 11-1 last 12 in series. “Over” and Texans, based on series trends.

Philly at St. Louis

at Philly “over” 7-1 on road LY. Note Andy Reid just 2-3 as road chalk LY. Rams 7-4 as dog and 10-6 overall vs. number in 2010. Rams and “over,” based on team trends.


Cincy at Cleveland

Pat Shurmur debut at Cleveland. Browns just 2-6 vs. spread at home LY for Mangini. Note that Cincy has lost and failed to cover its last 3 openers, and Marvin Lewis 4-8 vs. spread last 12 on road. Browns have won and covered 3 of last 4 hosting Bengals. Slight to Browns, based on series trends.

Cincy at Cleveland

Mike Munchak Tennessee debut. Titans have won and covered 3 of last 4 visits to J’ville. Jags 4-1 as chalk for Del Rio LY after 7-18 mark previous 25 in role. “Unders” 6-2 last 8 in series (including five of last 6 meetings), although Jags “over” 13-6 last 19 overall since late ‘09. Slight to Titans, based on team and series trends.




Sunday, Sept. 11 - All games to start at 4:15 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

NYG at Washington

at NYG 7-2-1 vs. line last 10 meetings, although G-Men only split vs. number against Skins LY. The Shan covered last 4 on board in 2010. Shan “under” 5-3 at FedEx Field LY and Skins “under” 21-11 at home since ‘07, and “unders” 6-2 last 8 in series. Coughlin historically good as road chalk, 2-1 LY and 13-5 in role since late ‘06. “Under,” based on “totals” trends.


Carolina at Arizona

Ron Rivera debut at Carolina. Panthers were 4-12 vs. line LY for John Fox and 2-6 on road against spread. Carolina was also “under” 20-12-1 in the last 33 games of the Fox regime. Panthers also won and covered each of past two years vs. Cards. Whisenhunt only 1-5 as chalk LY after 7-2 mark in role two previous years. Cards “over” 7-2 last 9 at Glendale. Slight to Cards, based on recent Panther negatives.

Seattle at San Fran

Jim Harbaugh SF debut. Teams have split the last two years with home team winning and covering all four outings. 49ers 11-5-1 vs. line last 17 on board at Candlestick. Pete Carroll just 2-7 vs. spread on road LY, also “over” 7-2 away. Seattle “over” 25-13 its last 38 as visitor. 49ers and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

Minnesota at San Diego

Norv has failed to cover opener the past three years, although Bolts were 6-2 vs. spread as host LY and 8-3-1 vs. line last 12 at Qualcomm. Vikes 2-6-1 vs. line away from home LY in very difficult 2010 campaign. Slight to Chargers, based on team trends.




Sunday, Sept. 11 - NBC, 8:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Dallas at NY Jets

Cowboys 3-6 vs. line last nine as visitor but were 5-2 as dog LY and 7-3 in role since ‘09. Dallas also “over” 13-3 LY. Rex Ryan nothing special vs. spread at home (8-8 since 2009), and Jets “over” 12-4 LY and 16-5 last 21 as well. “Over” and Cowboys, based on “totals” and team trends.




Monday, Sept. 11 - ESPN, 7:00 & 10:15 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

NE at MIA

Belichick crushed Sparano in the two meetings LY (41-14 & 38-7), although he had dropped 4 of previous 5 vs. points against Dolphins. Belichick “over” 6-2 away LY and also “over” 15-3 last 18 since late ‘09. Sparano 2-6 vs. line at home LY as Dolphins continue to provide no spread value at home (14-34 last 48 dating to late 2004). Patriots and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.


OAK at DENVER

Hue Jackson Oakland debut, John Fox Denver debut. Raiders destroyed Broncos in both games LY and have covered five straight in Denver. Oakland 8-2 vs. spread last 10 in series. “Overs” 6-2 last eight meetings. Broncos only 4-9 vs. line last 13 at home. Raiders and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.




Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24902 Followers:33
09/08/2011 07:36 PM

Battered Giants Travel to Face Washington Redskins

The Washington Redskins have lost the last six meetings vs. the New York Giants.
The New York Giants' upcoming season could not look bleaker with the tremendous free agent moves made by their NFC East rivals in Philadelphia and Dallas. After losing multiple players to injuries and not making a single acquisition this offseason, the Giants' NFC chances do not seem very good.

The summer went a little bit better for the Washington Redskins mostly because of their additions of safety O.J. Atogwe from the St. Louis Rams and new multi-skilled running backs in Roy Helu Jr. and Tim Hightower.

The Redskins and Giants begin their season this Sunday at FedEx Field in Maryland, with the opening kickoff set for 4:15 p.m. (ET) and the game scheduled to be broadcast on FOX.

New York was sent out in the betting odds as 3-point road favorites right about the time the NFL lockout was lifted and that number has not moved since then. The total has stayed virtually stable at its current 37½-point mark as well.

New York has knocked off Washington six straight times dating back to 2008, but the Giants will have their hands full with a Redskins defense that will be eager to create turnovers.

Both the Redskins and Giants missed out on the playoffs in 2010 mostly due to their problems holding on to the ball in key situations. Eli Manning threw a career-high 25 interceptions last season, and if the Giants are going to overcome their early season injuries they will need Manning to conquer his turnover issues very quickly.

After a full offseason of battling, Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan ended up choosing the more experienced quarterback in Rex Grossman to face the Giants on Sunday afternoon. Grossman had been fighting for the starting position during the preseason with former Dolphins and BYU quarterback John Beck, who lost time due to an injury and the length of the lockout also working against him.

The Redskins lost their last five regular season home games and will have their hands full with a powerful Giants offense that has improved on the offensive line.

The issue at the moment for the Giants is their depth at the cornerback position. Top draft pick Prince Amukamara is expected to be out until at least October with a broken foot, but that is the least of their problems with Terrell Thomas, Bruce Johnson and Brian Witherspoon all suffering season-ending injuries in the preseason.

The Giants will be going into the start of the 2011 season with six men already on injured reserve and three others out indefinitely, and that does not even include Osi Umenyiora who has already been ruled out of Sunday’s game while still recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery.

Weather forecasts are suggesting game-time highs to reach around 75 degrees with a high chance of isolated thunderstorms throughout the day into early evening in the D.C. area.

With the weather projected to look gloomy for kickoff, this may end up being a sloppy start to the NFL season for both of these teams.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: