SPOOKY EXPRESS BOWLING FOR DOLLARS SELECTION AND ANALYSIS THREAD
BCS Championship Game
Alabama vs. LSU
Monday, January 9, 8:30 pm
All hail the SEC. Again. Yuk. LSU and Alabama were awarded a spot in this game mainly because they hail from the nation’s premier college football conference. The Tigers have earned their spot by virtue of huge non conference wins over Oregon and West Virginia as well as their SEC West and overall SEC titles. Alabama is a controversial participant in this championship game. They were essentially voted in despite the fact that they finished second in the SEC West, have no marquee non conference wins (other than beating a mediocre Penn State squad) and that they already lost to LSU once this year. It has also been said that Alabama’s selection has more to do with generating television ratings than it does of actually pitting the two most deserving teams against one another. This game marks the first time in the 13-year history of the BCS that two teams from the same conference will play for the title. This game is a rematch of a heavily-hyped regular matchup back on Nov. 5. LSU won that game, 9-6, in overtime at Tuscaloosa in a game that was obviously dominated by defense. The teams mustered just 534 combined yards and four turnovers in a snoozer. All of the scoring came from the kickers: LSU’s Drew Alleman went 3-for-3 with his field goal attempts while Alabama’s Cade Foster and Jeremy Shelley combined to go just 2-for-6. The books have set on of the lowest totals in BCS Championship Game history and the bobblehead media is predicting another low-scoring contest. With perhaps the two best defenses in the country, which are both littered with future pro players, that is a reasonable expectation. If history and matchups are indicators then this one should be both low scoring and tight. The last two LSU-Alabama games have been decided by a field goal (both LSU wins) and four of the last six meetings have been determined by a touchdown or less.
Both teams have punched their way to this title game on the strength of a dominating defense and a power running game.
This game features two of the most talented rosters in all of college football and several future NFL players. However, the focus heading into this game is squarely on the marquee coaching matchup of Nick Saban against Les Miles. The Crimson Tide lost the initial matchup this season despite having a distinct home field advantage. But now the tables are turned even though this is supposed to be a “neutral” site. LSU is playing in its backyard in Louisiana and should expect to benefit from a very pro-Tigers crowd.
The spread on this game has really undergone an interesting movement. LSU opened as a one-point favorite in this game and has taken nearly 70 percent of all of the betting action in this game. But the line has actually gone the other way, with Alabama currently a one-point favorite, according to college football odds. That is a reverse line movement and indicates all of the sharp movement is down on the Crimson Tide.
Last year I was one of the few guys predicting a low-scoring BCS Championship Game between Oregon and Auburn. The total was set at 74.0 and everyone was expecting a shootout between two of the most explosive offenses in the country. But I was right, and the 41 total points made it the second-lowest scoring title game in a decade. This year I think I am going in the opposite direction. I think that this game is going to defy the public expectations – which is another defensive slugfest – and I think that this game that possibly destroys the total. I believe that both coaches will be a bit more aggressive offensively and that we could see some scoring out of either of the defenses or the special teams units. I have Alabama winning this game by 4 points and grabbed the early point and have not stopped taking points anytime I can with Alabama. It really should be a great game and looking towards it but honestly I still feel it should be Oklahoma State playing LSU for the Championship. Roll Tide. Next Year its Fight On USC!
ALABAMA/LSU OVER 40 POINTS (Opinion)
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