Jack's Free Pick Friday!
0 Reply | 463 ViewsOn 12/23/2011 01:43 PM in Cappers
Point Spread: +11/-105 Marist
Marist should not be catching double-digits against Pennsylvania tonight. These two 5-6 teams are a lot more evenly-matched than this line would indicate. The clear value in this one is with the road underdog Red Foxes.
Pennsylvania is in a huge letdown spot tonight, and they are likely to be rusty as well. After playing UCLA last time out, the Quakers will go on to play Davidson and Duke following this game. That makes this an "in-between" game and a definite "look-ahead" spot. Plus, Pennsylvania hasn't played since December 10th, and that will certainly work against them.
The Quakers are actually getting outscored at home this season. They have played a fairly easy schedule too, with only three true road games compared to seven home games. Marist has played a more difficult schedule, playing six road games compared to five home games.
This play falls into a system that is 29-6 (82.9%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams as an underdog or pick (MARIST) - average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG), after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more.
The Quakers are 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 non-conference games. Pennsylvania is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Marist is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Red Foxes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Quakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after a loss by 6 points or less. Bet Marist Friday.
To see more of Jack Jones's plays click here.