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Bowling Green vs. Michigan State, 12/17/2011 19:00
Point Spread: +19/-110 Bowling Green
1 Unit on Bowling Green +19
This is a game Bowling Green has had circled since getting embarrassed by 35 points at Michigan State last year. With 4 starters and 7 of 8 top scorers back who experienced that loss, I fully expect this motivated Bowling Green squad to give the Spartans a much better challenge this time around.
The Falcons have covered the spread in 5 of 7 lined games this season and have a quality win over Temple. It's also worth noting the Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
The Spartans are a poor 9-20-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a home favorite and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 13.0 points or more. In addition, plays against favorites of 10 or more points that check in with 8 or more consecutive wins, provided they are playing on 5 of 6 days' rest, are 80-41 ATS since 1997. Teams fitting into this situation have been favored by an average of 16.9 points but have only won by an average of 14.9 points. We'll bet Bowling Green.