cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
01/01/2012 10:41 AM

Top 5 NCAAF Trends

KANST
ARK Under is 8-0 in ARK last 8 Bowl games.

KANST
ARK Under is 8-0 in ARK last 8 bowl games.

FLA
OHIST OHIST are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

FLA
OHIST Over is 7-0 in FLA last 7 vs. Big Ten.

NEB
SOCAR Under is 7-0 in NEB last 7 neutral site games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
01/01/2012 10:45 AM

MONDAY, JANUARY 2

Game 247-248: Penn State vs. Houston (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 91.199; Houston 99.323
Dunkel Line: Houston by 8; 52
Vegas Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-5 1/2); Under

Game 249-250: Michigan State vs. Georgia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 100.686; Georgia 106.720
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 6; 47
Vegas Line: Georgia by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-3 1/2); Under

Game 251-252: Nebraska vs. South Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 97.574; South Carolina 94.573
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 3; 51
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 2 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (+2 1/2); Over

Game 253-254: Florida vs. Ohio State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 91.473; Ohio State 92.755
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Florida by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+2 1/2); Over

Game 255-256: Wisconsin vs. Oregon (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 107.209; Oregon 114.843
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 7 1/2; 65
Vegas Line: Oregon by 6; 72
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-6); Under

Game 257-258: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 107.590; Oklahoma State 116.255
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 8 1/2; 70
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 3 1/2; 74
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-3 1/2); Under

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
01/02/2012 11:15 AM

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Ticket City Bowl

Penn State’s starting QB is out because a WR gave him a concussion in a locker room fight; been tough couple months for Nittany Lions, who have interim coach who is likely to be job hunting Tuesday. State is 9-3 but lost two of last three games, getting whacked 45-7 in finale at Wisconsin- they’re 1-2-1 as an underdog this year. 12-1 Houston got crushed 49-28 in C-USA title game, after being hopeful of landing in BCS bowl; they’re 10-3 vs spread as a favorite this year, but they did allow 34+ points in five games. Cougars lost four of last five bowl games, allowing 42+ points in three of four losses- their only was against Air Force. Penn State is 3-2 in last five bowls, despite being underdog in four of five games- they allowed 17 or less points in the three wins, 38-37 in losses.

Outback Bowl

Michigan State-Georgia both lost conference title games; State scored 31+ points in its last five games behind senior QB Cousins; they’re 3-2 as underdogs this year. Georgia started season losing to Boise/South Carolina then won 10 straight, holding eight of those 10 opponents to 17 or less points- they’re 8-2 as favorites this year. Spartans lost their last five bowl games, with four losses by 10+ points; they lost 24-12 (+8.5) to Georgia in Capital One Bowl three years ago; Spartans allowed 41-49 points in last two bowls. Dawgs had their bowl winning streak snapped LY; they had won last four bowl games, scoring 35 ppg. Last seven years, SEC teams are 5-2 vs Big Dozen teams in this game. Big Dozen teams are 17-15 as bowl underdogs since ’06, but are 0-2 this year. SEC bowl favorites are 19-13 vs spread last six years, 1-2 this year.

Capital One Bowl

Nebraska scored 34+ points in six of first seven games, then tailed off to 20.6 ppg in last five games; Cornhuskers are 3-4 as underdogs under Pelini, 0-2 this year- they allowed 48-28-45 points in their three losses. South Carolina was 6-1 once they cut troubled QB Garcia, replacing him with sophomore Shaw; Gamecocks held five of last six I-A opponents to 13 or less points, covering four of last five as a favorite. SEC teams been favored over Big Dozen teams in last eight Capital One Bowls, but lost five of last seven SU; Nebraska is 3-2 in its last five bowls but won its last four Florida bowls; they lost 17-14 to Auburn last time they played an SEC team in a bowl. South Carolina lost four of last five bowls, scoring 10-7-17 points in losing last three, all by 9+ points; last time Spurrier faced Huskers in a bowl, his Florida team lost 62-24 in ‘97.

Gator Bowl

Shadow of Urban Meyer hovers over Florida-Ohio State game; Meyer recruited most of these Gators, will coach OSU next year. Florida lost six of last seven games vs I-A foes after 4-0 start; favorites are 9-2 vs spread in their games this year, with Gators 4-2 as a favorite. Buckeyes lost last three games, allowing 38.7 ppg, but they covered last four tries as an underdog. OSU perked up after late October bye week, scoring 27.6 ppg in last five games. Florida scored 24-51-37 points in winning its last three bowls, but those Gators aren’t these Gators; Florida (+7) beat Ohio State 41-14 in national title game five years ago. Buckeyes won last two bowls 26-17/31-26, beating Arkansas of SEC LY, but that was with Tressel on sidelines. Underdogs covered four of last five Gator Bowls. Average total in OSU’s last five bowls is 52.4. Why are these teams playing in this good a bowl?

Rose Bowl

Since 1993, Pac-12 teams other than USC are 1-9 in the Rose Bowl. Oregon won 1917 Rose Bowl over Penn, but hasn’t won it since; they scored 36.1/47.0 ppg in Kelly’s first two seasons, but lost 26-17/22-19 in bowl games; they haven’t won game under Kelly when opponent had more than week to prepare. 11-2 Wisconsin scored 31-29 points in its two losses, giving up last-minute TD passes in both games; this is first time all season they’re an underdog. Badgers are bowl underdog for sixth year in row, losing three of last four; they’ve scored 20 or less points in last five bowls, losing this game LY 21-19 to TCU. Underdogs covered five of last seven Rose Bowls. Only teams to beat Oregon this year were LSU/USC, arguably two of best five teams in country.

Fiesta Bowl

Oklahoma State scores a ridiculous amount of points, averaging 49.3 ppg; their only loss came in OT at Iowa State on night after a plane crash killed the women’s basketball coach at OSU, which had to be sobering factor. Cowboys are 8-3 as favorites this year, 3-0 if laying single digits- they’re 3-2 in last five bowls (favorites 4-1 vs spread), scoring 31+ points in four of five games. Stanford was 11-1, losing 53-30 at home to Oregon; they’re underdog for first time this year. Cardinal is in third straight bowl, splitting last two; they’ve lost three of last four bowls overall. In 24 games these teams played this year, only once did either side score less than 30 points (Stanford 28-14 over Notre Dame). Underdogs covered four of last five Fiesta Bowls, with average total in those games 59.2 ppg. Last college game for Cardinal QB Luck and OSU’s 27-year old QB Weeden.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
01/02/2012 11:18 AM

NCAAF

Monday, January 2

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College football betting: Monday's bowl previews and picks
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TICKETCITY BOWL

Penn State vs. Houston (-7, 56.5)

STORYLINES:

1. Houston comes in looking to shake off blowing a chance to play in a BCS bowl. No. 17 Houston won its first 12 games, only to stumble badly in a 49-28 loss to Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA championship game.

2. Likewise, No. 23 Penn State comes in looking for focus. The Nittany Lions season was derailed by the controversy surrounding former assistant coach Jerry Sandusky that ultimately led to the firing of legendary coach Joe Paterno. Penn State lost two of its final three games and were beaten soundly by Wisconsin, 45-7 in their regular-season finale.

3. On the field, the enticing match-up occurs when Houston has possession. Cougars quarterback Case Keenum passed for 5,099 yards and 45 touchdowns this season, fueling the top-rated passing attack in the country for an offense that averaged 50.8 points per game. He’ll take his shot against a Penn State defense ranked fifth in the nation against the pass and allowed just 15.7 points per contest.

4. As if Penn State hadn’t suffered enough off-the-field distractions, quarterback Matt McGloin may not play after suffering a concussion and seizure during a fight with receiver Curtis Drake in the locker room on Dec. 16. Backup quarterback Rob Bolden has worked with the starting offense in practice.

PREDICTION: Houston 35, Penn State 14. As well as the Nittany Lions defend the pass, Keenum has too much talent to be hemmed in all game, and Penn State will struggle to move the ball against Houston’s defense.




GATOR BOWL

Florida vs. Ohio State (2, 44)

STORYLINES:

1. Two programs that met for the BCS national championship just five years ago stumble into the Gator Bowl looking to salvage a winning season. When Florida beat Ohio State 41-14 for the 2006 BCS title, Urban Meyer patrolled the Gators sideline. Now he’s poised to take over a Buckeyes program still reeling from NCAA rules violations that cost former coach Jim Tressel his job.

2. Neither Ohio State nor Florida is accustomed to being this bad on offense. The Gators never found any consistency this season, finishing 102nd out of 120 FBS schools in total offense. Ohio State was worse, ranking 107th in the nation.

3. Ohio State freshman quarterback Braxton Miller averaged 90.4 yards rushing in his final five games and passed for 11 touchdowns. He’ll be challenged by a Florida defense that finished ninth in the nation in total defense and ranked 20th against the pass.

4. Florida senior quarterback John Brantley threw three interceptions against Florida State in the regular-season finale, before leaving with a concussion. Freshmen quarterbacks Jeff Driskel and Jacoby Brissett, both of whom struggled when called upon this season, could see time if Brantley falters.

PREDICTION: Ohio State 17, Florida 14. Meyer’s future beats Meyer’s past as the Buckeyes have more offense than the inconsistent Gators.




CAPITAL ONE BOWL

Nebraska vs. South Carolina (-2.5, 45.5)

STORYLINES:

1. Both teams have lost the coordinators of their strong defenses to head coaching jobs, as South Carolina's Ellis Johnson is headed to Southern Mississippi and Nebraska's Carl Pelini is taking over at Florida Atlantic.

2. The Gamecocks rank fourth in the nation in total defense (268.9 yards per game) and are especially tough against the pass (133.0 yards per game), so the Huskers will need to lean on their strong running game even more than usual. Leading rusher Rex Burkhead (1,268 yards, 17 TDs) has been nursing a sore ankle but is expected to play.

3. Both teams boast versatile quarterbacks. South Carolina's Connor Shaw passed for 1,218 yards with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions and added 483 rushing yards and seven touchdowns after taking over for Stephen Garcia. Nebraska's Taylor Martinez was the starter all season and passed for 1,973 yards with 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions to go with 837 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground.

4. South Carolina has never beaten Nebraska, losing all three meetings, the most recent in 1987. Gamecocks coach Steve Spurrier is winless against the Huskers, too, including a 62-24 loss in the 1996 Fiesta Bowl that gave Nebraska the national title over Spurrier's Florida team.

PREDICTION: South Carolina 33, Nebraska 24. Even without Johnson, the Gamecocks defense will be the best unit on the field, and that will be the difference in the fourth quarter.




OUTBACK BOWL

Michigan State vs. Georgia (-3, 50.5)

STORYLINES:

1. This is not the bowl game that either of these schools wanted. Both Georgia (SEC) and Michigan State (Big Ten) missed out on a trip to a BCS Bowl with losses in their respective conference championship games.

2. The Outback Bowl will mark the college finale for the most successful class in Spartans history, led by quarterback Kirk Cousins and wide receiver B.J. Cunningham. The two have hooked up for 12 touchdowns this season and will have plenty of pro scouts watching to see how they perform against SEC-level speed.

3. Georgia coach Mark Richt will be looking to cap a season of redemption with a victory. The embattled coach had plenty of fans calling for his job when the Bulldogs started out with back-to-back losses. Ten straight wins and the SEC East title has quieted those calls.

4. Michigan State has lost five straight bowl games, including a 24-12 setback against Georgia in the 2009 Capital One Bowl. The Spartans were trounced by Alabama, 49-7, in the Capital One Bowl last January. Georgia will be playing in its 10th straight bowl game and looking to bounce back after a 10-6 loss to Central Florida in the Liberty Bowl last season.

PREDICTION: Georgia 28, Michigan State 21. The SEC has dominated the Big Ten in bowl games recently, including a 3-0 mark last season. The Bulldogs will continue the conference reign.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
01/02/2012 11:20 AM

NCAAF

Monday, January 2

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Rose Bowl betting preview: Oregon vs. Wisconsin
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Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon Ducks (-6, 72)

ROSE BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Oregon coach Chip Kelly has taken his team to the Rose Bowl, National Championship Game and Rose Bowl again in the last three years. He is still looking for his first win. The Ducks have not won a Rose Bowl since 1917.

2. Wisconsin is coming off a win in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game and will test its sixth-ranked scoring defense (17.0 points) against Oregon’s third-ranked scoring offense (46.2 points). The Badgers have been exposed in the secondary at times, and few teams boast more speed than the Ducks.

3. Badgers running back Montee Ball was a Heisman Trophy finalist and needs one touchdown to tie Barry Sanders (39) for the all-time single-season record. Ball, who scored four times in the Big Ten Championship Game, has recorded 2,014 yards from scrimmage this season.

4. Oregon has its own former Heisman finalist at running back in LaMichael James, who is at 1,856 yards from scrimmage despite missing two games. James was recently announced as a finalist for the Paul Hornung Award, honoring the most versatile player in major college football.

TV: 5 p.m. ESPN.

LINE: Oregon -6. A couple shops on the Strip opened with the Ducks giving 5 points but just about every sportsbook is offering Oregon -6 now. The total opened at 71.5 and got bet up to 72.

ABOUT OREGON (11-2, 8-1 Pac-12): The Ducks had the chance to jump into a second National Championship Game but dropped their season-opener to LSU and lost any momentum they had toward the No. 2 slot when they were knocked off by USC, 38-35, on Nov. 19. But Oregon bounced back and won the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game, 49-31, over UCLA and totaled 98 points in its final two games. The Ducks play at a breakneck speed, using a no-huddle as their base offense and relying on quickness at each of the skill positions.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (11-2, 6-2 Big Ten): The big difference between last year’s squad that dropped a 21-19 decision to TCU in the Rose Bowl and this edition is quarterback Russell Wilson. The graduate student took little time to get used to his new teammates and was a Heisman Trophy candidate himself for much of the season. Where the Badgers used to be a one-dimensional running team, Wilson has opened up the playbook by passing for 31 touchdowns and ranking second nationally in quarterback rating. Wisconsin has closed with five straight wins, during which Wilson has thrown for 12 touchdowns and no interceptions.

TRENDS:

The Badgers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games and 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.

The Ducks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites and 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.

The under is 10-2 in Ducks' and Badgers' last 12 combined bowl games.

PREDICTION: Oregon 42, Wisconsin 34. A shootout suit’s the Ducks, who will get Kelly his first bowl win with the school.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
01/02/2012 11:20 AM

NCAAF

Monday, January 2

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Rose Bowl betting preview: Oregon vs. Wisconsin
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Wisconsin Badgers vs. Oregon Ducks (-6, 72)

ROSE BOWL STORYLINES:

1. Oregon coach Chip Kelly has taken his team to the Rose Bowl, National Championship Game and Rose Bowl again in the last three years. He is still looking for his first win. The Ducks have not won a Rose Bowl since 1917.

2. Wisconsin is coming off a win in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game and will test its sixth-ranked scoring defense (17.0 points) against Oregon’s third-ranked scoring offense (46.2 points). The Badgers have been exposed in the secondary at times, and few teams boast more speed than the Ducks.

3. Badgers running back Montee Ball was a Heisman Trophy finalist and needs one touchdown to tie Barry Sanders (39) for the all-time single-season record. Ball, who scored four times in the Big Ten Championship Game, has recorded 2,014 yards from scrimmage this season.

4. Oregon has its own former Heisman finalist at running back in LaMichael James, who is at 1,856 yards from scrimmage despite missing two games. James was recently announced as a finalist for the Paul Hornung Award, honoring the most versatile player in major college football.

TV: 5 p.m. ESPN.

LINE: Oregon -6. A couple shops on the Strip opened with the Ducks giving 5 points but just about every sportsbook is offering Oregon -6 now. The total opened at 71.5 and got bet up to 72.

ABOUT OREGON (11-2, 8-1 Pac-12): The Ducks had the chance to jump into a second National Championship Game but dropped their season-opener to LSU and lost any momentum they had toward the No. 2 slot when they were knocked off by USC, 38-35, on Nov. 19. But Oregon bounced back and won the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game, 49-31, over UCLA and totaled 98 points in its final two games. The Ducks play at a breakneck speed, using a no-huddle as their base offense and relying on quickness at each of the skill positions.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (11-2, 6-2 Big Ten): The big difference between last year’s squad that dropped a 21-19 decision to TCU in the Rose Bowl and this edition is quarterback Russell Wilson. The graduate student took little time to get used to his new teammates and was a Heisman Trophy candidate himself for much of the season. Where the Badgers used to be a one-dimensional running team, Wilson has opened up the playbook by passing for 31 touchdowns and ranking second nationally in quarterback rating. Wisconsin has closed with five straight wins, during which Wilson has thrown for 12 touchdowns and no interceptions.

TRENDS:

The Badgers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games and 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games overall.

The Ducks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites and 2-5 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.

The under is 10-2 in Ducks' and Badgers' last 12 combined bowl games.

PREDICTION: Oregon 42, Wisconsin 34. A shootout suit’s the Ducks, who will get Kelly his first bowl win with the school.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
01/02/2012 11:21 AM

NCAAF

Monday, January 2

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Fiesta Bowl betting preview: Stanford vs. Oklahoma State
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Stanford Cardinal vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5, 73)

TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL STORYLINES

1. In a consolation title game of sorts, the two next-best contenders for the BCS title -- and two of the top five scoring offenses in the nation -- will square off. The third-ranked Cowboys have an extra large chip on their shoulder, feeling they deserved a shot at top-ranked LSU rather than the rematch opportunity granted to Alabama.

2. It's most likely the final college game for Stanford QB Andrew Luck, who is expected to be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft if he leaves after his junior year. Luck should be able to exploit an Oklahoma State defense that allows 265.6 passing yards per game, 102nd in the nation.

3. The Cardinal have been tough against the run, ranking fifth in the nation at 90.0 yards allowed per game, but that might not do them much good against the Cowboys. Oklahoma State does most of its damage through the air -- the Cowboys rank second in the nation with 386.2 passing yards per game.

4. The Fiesta Bowl has endured a tumultuous 2011 that featured a scandal involving improper gifts and travel bowl employees granted to politicians, resulting in the firing of longtime president and CEO John Junker.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE: Oklahoma State -3.5. You might want to bet the favorite now if you like Okie State because this line doesn't appear to be going down. Oddsmakers opened up this spread at Stanford +3.5 but in the last day or two we've seen some 4's and even a 4.5 pop up. The total has been bet down from 75 down to as low as 73 at some locations.

ABOUT STANFORD (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12): The Cardinal didn't show any noticeable dropoff after losing coach Jim Harbaugh to the NFL, as first-year coach David Shaw led them to a second consecutive BCS bowl. They beat Virginia Tech 40-12 in last year's Orange Bowl. Much of the success can be attributed to Heisman Trophy runner-up Luck, who has passed for 3,185 yards with 35 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Stanford was never really in contention for the BCS title game after a 53-30 loss to Oregon on Nov. 12, because it doesn't have many impressive wins. The Cardinal beat three ranked teams -- Washington, Southern California and Notre Dame -- but none was higher than No. 20 at the time of the game and only the Trojans are still ranked.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (11-1): The Cowboys have the best argument that they should be in the championship game, but a 37-31 overtime loss to Iowa State was just ugly enough to keep them out, even after they rebounded to crush rival Oklahoma 44-10 in the regular-season finale. So it's with some disappointment that their school-record sixth consecutive bowl game comes in Arizona, rather than New Orleans. Star WR Justin Blackmon (1,336 receiving yards, 15 TDs) and 28-year-old QB Brandon Weeden (4,328 yards, 34 TDs, 12 INTs) lead the offense that ranked third nationally in total yards (557.0 per game) and second in scoring (49.3 points per game), but RB Joseph Randle is a handful, too. Randle quietly amassed 1,193 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns.

TRENDS:

The Cardinal are 7-0 ATS in their last seven non-conference games and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.

The Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Pac-12 teams and 49-19-2 ATS in their last 70 games when giving points.

The under is 13-3-1 in Stanford's last 17 games as an underdog and 6-1-2 in Okie State's last nine games against teams with winning records.

PREDICTION: Oklahoma State 41, Stanford 35. Teams left on the bubble of the national championship game can go either way, but the Cowboys seem motivated to prove they were unjustly overlooked.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
01/02/2012 11:25 AM

NCAAF

Monday, January 2

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Penn State - 12:00 PM ET Houston -5.5 500
Houston - Under 56.5 500

Michigan State - 1:00 PM ET Georgia -3.5 500
Georgia - Under 50 500

Nebraska - 1:00 PM ET South Carolina -2 500
South Carolina - Under 46.5 500

Florida - 1:00 PM ET Florida -2 500
Ohio State - Under 44 500

Wisconsin - 5:00 PM ET Oregon -6 500
Oregon - Under 72 500

Stanford - 8:30 PM ET Stanford +3.5 500
Oklahoma State - Over 74 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
01/02/2012 11:39 AM

Rose & Fiesta Previews

January 1, 2012

Wisconsin is returning to the Rose Bowl for a second straight season. This time around, the Badgers will take on Oregon from out of the Pac-12.

As of Sunday evening, most betting shops had Oregon (11-2 straight up, 6-5-2 against the spread) installed as a six-point favorite with a total of 72. Gamblers can take Wisconsin to win outright for a plus-190 return (risk $100 to win $190).

Brett Bielema’s team came up short in Pasadena last year, dropping a 21-19 decision to TCU. But the Badgers did cover the number as three-point underdogs.

TCU was in the Rose Bowl because Oregon was in the BCS Championship Game. The Ducks, who lost to Ohio St. in the Rose Bowl two years ago, are in a BCS game for the third straight year under Chip Kelly.

Oregon lost its opener to LSU by a 40-27 count at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, but it responded with nine consecutive victories to get back into the national-title picture. However, thoughts of returning to the BCS Championship Game were shattered on Nov. 19 when Southern Cal went into Eugene and emerged with a 38-35 win as a 16 ½-point underdog.

Kelly’s team won its regular-season finale with a 49-21 win over Oregon St. in annual Civil War battle. The Ducks were favored by 28 so side bets were a push.

The following week, Oregon beat UCLA 49-31 in the inaugural Pac-12 title game but the Bruins took the cash as 31-point underdogs.

Junior quarterback Darron Thomas enjoyed another stellar year, throwing for 2,493 yards and 30 touchdowns compared to only six interceptions. Even though junior RB LaMichael James missed a couple of games, he still rushed for 1,646 yards and 17 TDs with a 7.4 yards-per-carry average.

De’Anthony Thomas lived up to the hype as a true freshman, producing 1,838 all-purpose yards with nine TD catches and five rushing scores. Kenjon Barner also rushed for 909 yards and 11 TD and had a pair of TD receptions.

Wisconsin (11-2 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) got an early Christmas gift in August when Russell Wilson, a transfer from North Carolina St., decided on Madison ahead of Auburn. Wilson didn’t disappoint, leading the Badgers to victory in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game while putting up dazzling numbers.

Wilson completed 72.5 percent of his passes for 2,879 yards with an amazing 31/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Wilson can also scramble and rushed for 320 yards and five TDs.

Montee Ball had a monster campaign, rushing for 1,759 yards and 32 TDs. Ball’s presence helped set up Wilson’s play-action opportunities and, in turn, teams had to be reluctant to stack the box to stop Ball out of fear of Wilson’s aerial accuracy. This combination resulted in a dynamic offensive unit that averaged 44.6 points per game.

Wisconsin’s losses came in back-to-back road games in late October. After winning their first six games by 31 points or more, the Badgers lost 37-31 at Michigan St. on a Hail Mary pass to end the game. Seven days later, they lost 33-29 at Ohio St.

Since then, Wisconsin has won five in a row, including a 42-39 revenge victory over the Spartans to win the Big Ten title. However, we should note that the Badgers are in the midst of a 2-5 ATS slide after failing to hook up their backers in the win over MSU as 9 ½-point favorites.

Both schools saw the ‘over’ finish with a 9-4 overall record. The ‘over’ has hit in four consecutive games for Oregon and eight of Wisconsin’s last 10 outings.

ESPN will have the telecast at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

The Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, AZ., will take center stage in the prime-time slot, featuring Oklahoma St. and Stanford in an 8:30 p.m. Eastern showdown on ESPN.

As of Sunday night, most spots had the Cowboys listed as four-point favorites with the total in the 74-75 range. The Cardinal is available on the money line for a plus-155 payout.

Oklahoma St. (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) finished the regular season in style, trouncing arch-rival Oklahoma by a 44-10 score as a 3 ½-point home ‘chalk’ in the Bedlam game in Stillwater. Joseph Randle and Jeremy Smith combined to rush for 270 yards and both had two rushing TDs apiece. The OSU defense held OU to a season low in points thanks to two interceptions of Landry Jones.

Mike Gundy’s squad was in prime position to get to the school’s first BCS Championship Game. But on Nov. 18 in Ames, the 10-0 Cowboys blew a 10-point halftime lead in a 37-31 double-overtime loss at Iowa St.

Brandon Weeden threw for 476 yards and three TDs against the Cyclones, but he also had three costly interceptions. For the year, Weeden passed for 4,328 yards with a 34/12 TD-INT ratio.

Weeden had the benefit of one of the nation’s premier WRs in Justin Blackmon, who made 113 catches for 1,336 yards and 15 TDs. Randle rushed for a team-high 1,193 yards and 23 TDs.

Like OSU, Stanford (11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS) was also unbeaten into the month of November. On Nov. 12, though, Oregon came to Palo Alto and ruined the Cardinal’s national-title hopes by cruising to a 53-30 win as a three-point underdog.

Although Andrew Luck didn’t get his team to New Orleans and he came up short in the Heisman Trophy voting, he still had a great junior year and is a lock to go No. 1 in this year’s NFL Draft.

Luck completed 70-percent of his passes for 3,185 yards with a 35/9 TD-INT ratio. RB Stepfan Taylor gave the offense balance with his running ability, finishing with 1,153 rushing yards and eight TDs. Tyler Gaffney added seven rushing TDs while averaging 6.4 YPC.

Coby Fleener led Stanford in TD grabs with 10, while Griff Whalen hauled in a team-high 49 receptions for 664 yards and four scores. Chris Owusu had 35 catches for 376 yards and two TDs before sustaining a second concussion that’s kept him out of the last three games. Owusu is ‘doubtful’ for the Rose Bowl.

The ‘under’ is 6-4-2 overall for Oklahoma St., cashing in each of its last three games. The Cowboys have had five totals in the 70s with the ‘under’ going 3-2 in those instances.

Totals have been an overall wash for Stanford (6-6), but the ‘over’ is 4-2 in its last six games. This is the highest total the Cardinal has seen this year. The ‘over’ hit in its lone game with a total in the 70s.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Wisconsin and Stanford are both in their first underdog situations of the season.

--Oregon lost outright in its lone single-digit favorite spot, falling to LSU as a three-point ‘chalk.’

--Oklahoma St. is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a single-digit favorite this year.

--In this recent report from SportsByBrooks, Brooks implies that Urban Meyer might be participating in Ohio State’s preparation for its Gator Bowl showdown vs. Florida. If so, that would be such an Oscar Weiner type move.

--South Carolina is 1-4 in bowl games during Steve Spurrier’s tenure. The Gamecocks will try to end a three-game losing streak in the postseason when it faces Nebraska on Monday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
01/02/2012 11:47 AM

Big 10 Bowls - Part II

December 22, 2011

Ten of the 12 Big Ten teams are headed to bowl games this season, including a pair of squads heading to BCS bowls. Apparently, Vegas oddsmakers don't like the Big Ten's chances as seven of the 10 squads are underdogs. Since 2009, the Big Ten is 8-9 straight up and 10-6-1 ATS in bowl games. In BCS bowls in that span, the Big Ten is 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS.

TicketCity Bowl from Dallas
Matchup: Penn State Nittany Lions (+5.5) vs. Houston Cougars
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ESPNU, 12:00 p.m. ET)

Houston had a golden opportunity for an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl; all the Cougars had to do was beat Southern Miss in the Conference USA championship game. Houston responded with its worst performance of the season. The Cougars had season-lows in yards and points and record setting QB Keenum had his lowest rated game of the season. It will be difficult for the Cougars to be motivated for this upcoming game in the TicketCity Bowl. Especially considering that head coach Sumlin's name has been thrown around as the hottest name on the market for open coaching candidacies.

On the other side, Penn State endured arguably the worst mid-season scandal/story in the history of College Football. Longtime head coach Paterno was fired and the Nittany Lions sputtered to a 1-2 finished after starting the season 8-1. Because of the rumors of the scandal, more prestigious bowls passed on PSU and the Lions ended up here. Like Houston, it will be difficult for players to be motivated to play here after aspirations of a bigger Bowl.

QB Keenum shattered virtually every NCAA passing mark - career yards, career touchdown passes and total offense - as he threw for more than 5,000 yards for the third time in his career, along with a career-high 45 touchdown passes. However, this team hasn't faced a defense on caliber with Penn State's. PSU has the 10th best defense in the nation and 5th best scoring defense. The closest comparison would be Southern Miss' 31st ranked defense that held Houston to its lowest point & yard total this season.

Something to consider: Penn State has failed to cover 11 of its last 14 games overall and is just 1-5-1 ATS its last 7 as an underdog. Houston is 7-1 ATS its last 8 games but is 1-4 ATS its last five Bowl games.

Gator Bowl from Jacksonville
Matchup: Ohio State Buckeyes (+2) vs. Florida Gators
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ESPN2, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Buckeyes and Gators are used to playing in bigger postseason games, but a matchup between two storied programs like Florida and Ohio State (teamed with the recent news that former Florida coach Urban Meyer will coach next season at OSU) will certainly be motivation enough for both of these squads.

We mentioned above that Meyer will take over coaching the Buckeyes next season, but interim coach Luke Fickell will finish up this season by coaching the Bowl game. The extra month of practice should certainly help this young Buckeyes team, particularly quarterback Braxton Miller. The Big Ten freshman of the year showed strong promise and improvement while starting the final eight games, including his 335-yard, three-touchdown performance in the season-ending loss at Michigan.

The immediate concern for the Buckeyes is finding ways to score against a Gators defense that finished ninth in the nation in total defense. Ohio State had the worst passing attack in the Big Ten while Florida held opponents to fewer than 167 pass yards per game and allowed just 13 passing touchdowns all season.

After starting 4-0, Florida lost six of its next eight games and didn't beat anybody that finished the regular season with a winning record. The 6-6 mark is Florida's worst regular-season finish since 1987. The Gators averaged just 334 yards per game (102nd nationally) and averaged just 13 points per game against FBS opponents during the final eight weeks of the season.

Something to consider: Florida has won four of its last five Bowl games, including last year against Big Ten Penn State and in 2006 against Ohio State in the BCS Championship. Florida has failed to cover eight straight games while OSU has covered four straight as an underdog.

Capital One Bowl from Orlando
Matchup: Nebraska Cornhuskers (+2.5) vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ESPN, 1:00 p.m.)

Nebraska's first season in the Big Ten had its ups and downs, but with a win here in the Capital One Bowl the Huskers would get to 10 wins and this season can be seen as a success. South Carolina had two narrow losses this season, a three-point defeat to Auburn and a closer-than-the-score-indicates 16 point loss to Arkansas.

Offensively the Huskers are pretty one-dimensional. QB Martinez and RB Burkhead lead the nation's 13th best rush-offense and have combined for 2,105 rush yards and 24 touchdowns. Martinez has never been a huge threat through the air, throwing for less than 2,000 yards and completing just 56% (12 TD and 7 INT).

South Carolina lost arguably the top RB in the nation when RB Marcus Lattimore injured his knee in week seven against Mississippi State. South Carolina's offense was averaging 36 points per game with Lattimore in the lineup, but sputtered to just 22 points per game the final six games without him. QB Shaw took over when SC dismissed starting QB Garcia midseason. Shaw performed well, completing 66% with 12 TD and 6 INT the final seven games.

Defensively the Gamecocks have the clear advantage in this game. South Carolina has the 4th best defense in the nation, 2nd best pass defense, and 13th best scoring defense. The strength is in the defensive line, where defensive ends Ingram, Clowney, and Taylor have wreaked havoc on opposing QB's all season long (combined 19.5 sacks this season).

Nebraska's Blackshirts has shown the ability to be a shutdown defense (allowed just three points to Big Ten Legends champ Michigan State), but were thoroughly dominated by the Big Ten's two best offenses in Michigan and Wisconsin. Wisconsin put up 48 points while Michigan put up 45 (both 20+ point losses for Nebraska).

Something to consider: South Carolina is 1-4 straight up and against the spread in its last five Bowl games. Nebraska is having an eerily similar finish as last season when it lost three of its final four games, including its Bowl game, after a 9-1 start. This season the Huskers are 2-2 the last four games (1-3 ATS) after a 7-1 start.

Outback Bowl from Tampa
Matchup: Michigan State Spartans (+3.5) vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ABC, 1:00 p.m.)

Michigan State will try and rebound after a heartbreaking loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship, coming up short of the Rose Bowl for the second consecutive season. Last season Sparty didn't respond well in the Capital One Bowl, losing 49-7 to Alabama. Georgia also lost in its conference championship game, losing 42-10 to #1 LSU. The Bulldogs finished with their first 10-win season since 2008 and look for their fifth Bowl win in the last six years.

Offensively, the Spartans have surged since a three-point performance on October 30th at Nebraska. Since then, Sparty is averaging 38.6 points in the past five games. QB Cousins has completed 67% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions over that span. The rush-offense has been surprisingly non-existent for most of the season. MSU ranks just 76th nationally with 143 rush yards per game.

These two squads are very similar defensively. Both squads rank in the top five of total defense and in the top 15 against both the run and the pass. Both squads are off of disappointing efforts as each allowed 42 points in the conference championship losses. Both squads can get after the opposing QB. Georgia was second in the SEC with 34 sacks while MSU led the Big Ten with 41 sacks.

Something to consider: MSU is 0-4 in Bowl games (1-3 ATS) under head coach Dantonio. That includes two double digit losses to SEC schools, including a Capital One Bowl loss to Georgia in 2008. Georgia outgained the Spartans 337-236 and the Bulldogs held Sparty to just 31 rush yards on 34 carries. MSU has the experience factor as QB Cousins and WR's Cunningham and Martin all played in that game.

Rose Bowl from Pasadena
Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers (+5) vs. Oregon Ducks
Date: Jan. 2
TV/Time: (ESPN, 5:00 p.m.)

Wisconsin makes its second consecutive trip to the Rose Bowl for the first time since 1998-99 after last year's 21-19 loss to TCU. Oregon will make its second trip to the Rose Bowl in the last three seasons after a 26-17 loss to Ohio State in the 2009 edition. Both will be highly motivated for a different result here.

Both of these offenses couldn't be more different in scheme and style, yet so similar statistically. Oregon runs a fast-paced, no-huddle spread offense to perfection, averaging 515 yards (6th nationally) and 46 points per game (3rd). Wisconsin is more methodical at it uses a mammoth offensive line and an extremely efficient balance of run & pass to chew up the clock and keep the defense guessing. Wisconsin averages 477 yards per game (15th) and 45 points per game (4th).

Wisconsin has the 8th best defense in the nation and 6th best scoring defense. It was a bit exposed against the Spartans in the Big Ten Championship. MSU used its speed and quick hitting plays to rack up 471 yards and 39 points against UW. The Badgers' best defense, in this game, could be its offense. Their offensive line could wear on the smaller Ducks, and the ground game led by Montee Ball - who needs just two touchdowns to set the single-season FBS record - will help keep Oregon's offense off the field.

Something to consider: Oregon coach Chip Kelly has only lost six times in his three years at Oregon. In five of those losses, high-quality teams had extra time to prepare their defenses, including the last two Bowl games. Wisconsin has covered five of its last seven Bowl games - all as an underdog.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: