cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
12/17/2011 09:47 AM

NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 15 betting notes

You know it’s getting late in the NFL regular season when the league starts scattering games all over the weekly calendar. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. This week, we’ve got contests on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. To the poolies cheat sheet we go:

Dallas (-7) at Tampa Bay

Why Cowboys cover: The Cowboys are playing the Bucs, who just gave up 41 points to the awful Jaguars. And the Cowboys have no room to mess around against Tampa after stinging losses to the Cardinals and Giants. At home, the Bucs are in ATS slumps of 6-20 overall and 5-16 when getting points.

Why Buccaneers cover: Well, if they really like Raheem Morris as coach, it would serve them well to show it. The Bucs have dumped seven in a row SU (straight up), going 1-6 against the number over that span. They could be playing for Morris’ job here, so perhaps that’s some incentive. Dallas is just 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 when laying points and 7-18-2 ATS in its last 27 in December.

Total (47): Tampa has given up 24 points or more in every game of its seven-game slide, including 35 or more four times. The over is 18-8 in Dallas’ last 26 overall.

New Orleans (-6.5) at Minnesota

Why Saints cover: They are hotter than a supermodel on the sun, winning and covering five in a row and six of their last seven. Minnesota, meanwhile, has lost five in a row straight up (1-3-1 ATS) and seems to have a QB quandary – rookie Christian Ponder was yanked after a dismal two-plus quarters against Detroit, and Joe Webb nearly pulled off a stunning comeback.

Why Vikings cover: They are 5-1 ATS in the last six of this rivalry and the Saints tend to play down to the level of competition, at 3-11 ATS in their last 14 against losing teams.

Total (50.5): Total has gone low in four of the last five for New Orleans, but the Saints average 31.9 ppg (second in NFL), and the over is 6-1 in Minny’s last seven at home. The over is also 5-1 in the last six Saints-Vikes matchups.

Carolina at Houston (-6.5)

Why Panthers cover: This team is better than its 4-9 SU record suggests. They’ve lost six games this season in which they’ve led or been tied in the fourth quarter. Once Cam Newton figures out how to stop throwing more INTs (16) than TDs (15), they’ll be the real deal. Carolina’s 15-6 ATS in its last 21 December outings.

Why Texans cover: Even with rookie T.J. Yates at QB, they’re still winning and covering, going 6-0-1 ATS during their current seven-game SU run. This team is contending for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, so it has plenty of incentive. The Panthers are on pointspread dives of 4-12 when catching points and 3-9 against winning teams.

Total (45.5): Something’s got to give here. Carolina’s on over runs of 5-0-1 against winning teams, 6-1-1 as an underdog and 7-3-1 on the highway. Houston is on under surges of 5-1 at home and 6-2 as a chalk.

Green Bay (-14) at Kansas City

Why Packers cover: During their eye-popping 19-game SU win streak, they’ve cashed 14 times. That includes four covers as double-digit favorites this season. The Chiefs are in disarray after firing coach Todd Haley on Monday while the Packers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 roadies and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 in December.

Why Chiefs cover: Bad as they are, they’re still a good underdog. They are riding ATS streaks of 7-2 overall, 5-1 as a home pup, and 12-4 when getting more than 10 points. The Packers are 1-5 ATS in the last six as a road chalk of more than 10 points.

Total (46): The Chiefs have scored 10 points or fewer in six straight games and the under has cashed in six of the last seven for K.C. Conversely, the Packers average a league-best 35.8 ppg, with over hitting in six of their last seven games. An average Green Bay outing wouldn’t leave much work for K.C. to reach the over.

Seattle at Chicago (-3.5)

Why Seahawks cover: They’re hot, and Chicago’s not. The Seahawks have won four of last five SU and five of last six ATS. Running back Marshawn Lynch has 109 yards or more in five of last six games, along with six TDs in that stretch. The Bears have lost three straight without QB Jay Cutler.

Why Bears cover: They’re dying for a win to stay in the NFC playoff hunt and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five when laying points. The Seahawks are riding ATS skids of 16-34-2 on the highway and 8-20-1 as road pups.

Total (35.5): Lots of over trends for both teams. Plus, the over has cashed in six overall and the last four in Windy City.

Tennessee (-6.5) at Indianapolis

Why Titans cover: They’d covered five of six before Sunday’s 22-17 loss to New Orleans and they nearly got the outright upset. Winless Indy (4-9 ATS) has failed to cash in its last four at home and the last four inside AFC South. The Titans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 in this rivalry.

Why Colts cover: Tennessee QB Matt Hasselbeck’s status is uncertain due to calf injury. Plus, Indy has covered two in a row, following seven consecutive pointspread setbacks. The Colts are also 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 vs. winning teams.

Total (41): Under has been big for both teams lately, hitting seven straight for Tennessee and five of six for Indianapolis. This division rivalry is littered with unders – 11-2 in the last 13 overall and 6-0 in the last six in Indy.

Washington at N.Y. Giants (-6.5)

Why Redskins cover: As bad as Mike Shanahan’s troops are, losing eight of last nine SU, they’ve at least been a little better lately against the spread by covering three of the last four. They fell just short of pushing Patriots to overtime last weekend. The Redskins also like division play, cashing five of the last six in the NFC East.

Why Giants cover: After knocking off Dallas on the road last week, they are due for a good game at home, where they are just 1-3-1 ATS in the last five. Tom Coughlin’s squad will also be looking for some payback after getting ripped 28-14 at Washington in the season opener.

Total (46.5): The score has played under in seven of the last eight ‘Skins-Giants meetings at the Meadowlands. The over is on runs of 4-0 for Washington and 4-1 for New York.

Miami at Buffalo

Why Dolphins cover: They’ll be inspired by firing of coach Tony Sparano. They covered six in a row before falling to Philadelphia last week. They were due for a little letdown.

Why Bills cover: The Bills have dumped six in a row SU (1-5 ATS) and are due for a decent game at some point.

Total: The under has been the big play for Miami all season, going 10-2-1. The under has also cashed in 10 of Buffalo’s last 11 in December and 8-3 in the team’s last 11 at Orchard Park.

Cincinnati (-6) at St. Louis

Why Bengals cover: Their playoff hopes are dangling by a thread, but this is a good team well overdue for some good luck. They’ve lost four of their last five, but those losses were all by one score or less against playoff-bound teams. St. Louis is the league’s worst team ATS (2-11).

Why Rams cover: Seriously, all the Rams can hope for is that Cincy’s current 0-4-1 ATS funk continues.

Total (38.5): St. Louis averages a league-low 11.8 ppg and the under has cashed in seven of the last 10. However, Cincy’s on several over runs including 8-2 overall and 5-0 as a chalk.

Detroit (-1) at Oakland

Why Lions cover: Defensive stalwart Ndamukong Suh returns from two-game suspension and Detroit needs him to continue its push for a NFC wild-card spot. The Raiders were pummeled over the last two weeks (at Miami and at Green Bay) by a combined score of 80-30. The Raiders are 20-43 ATS in the last 63 in December.

Why Raiders cover: Last week’s loss to the Packers notwithstanding, Oakland’s generally a good bounce-back bet. The Raiders are 7-2 ATS in the last nine off a SU loss and 14-4 ATS in the last 18 off an ATS loss. Detroit’s 1-8-1 ATS in the last 10 as a road chalk.

Total (47.5): The over is on a 7-1-1 run in the Lions’ last nine roadies, 4-0 in the Raiders’ last four overall. The over is also 7-3 at home for Oakland and 5-1 with the Raiders catching points at Coliseum.

New England (-6) at Denver

Why Patriots cover: At some point, the Broncos’ good fortune will go up in smoke. New England is the best team Denver has faced during the Tebow Mania craze, and the Pats have covered eight of their last 11 road games.

Why Broncos cover: Tim Tebow has led Denver to seven wins in eight games. The Broncos have covered in six of those – five from the underdog role. So this game sets up perfect for the Mile High Messiah. The Pats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven when laying points, 1-4 ATS in the last five vs. the Broncos, and 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Denver.

Total (45.5): In Tebow’s eight starts, Denver has scored 18 or fewer points. But New England averages 30.5 points per game and a defense that’s allowed 20 or more points nine times this year. The over is 12-4 in the Pats’ last 16 roadies and in the Broncos’ last 16 at home.

N.Y. Jets at Philadelphia (-3)

Why Jets cover: Clinging to sixth and final playoff spot in AFC, they need this game. They’ve won their last three while cashing in their last two outings. Philly is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine at home.

Why Eagles cover: There’s no pressure here with a playoff sport out of the question, so they can play fast and loose. All the pressure is on the Jets, and Philly’s talent is far better than its 5-8 SU and ATS record indicates.

Total (44): If Jets are playing the over is in play. The Jets have played over in all three games during their current upswing. The Jets also have the over on streaks of 23-8 overall, 13-3-1 with New York set as a pup, and 9-2 with Gang Green pegged as a road underdog.

Cleveland at Arizona (-7)

Why Browns cover: They’re not very good, but they have covered in three of their last four. That’s about all I’ve got in their defense.

Why Cardinals cover: Upended 49ers last week to continue a nice roll in which they’ve won five of six SU and six of seven ATS. Cleveland’s averaging just 13.7 ppg (30th) and could be without QB Colt McCoy (concussion).

Total (37.5): Cleveland’s scoring impotence has led to under streaks of 4-1 overall and 8-3 when the Browns are catching points.

Baltimore (-1.5) at San Diego

Why Ravens cover: This team is gunning for No. 1 seed in AFC playoff chase and has won four in a row by average of more than 11 points per game. The Bolts are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.

Why Chargers cover: They still have a sliver of chance in AFC West, but they’ve got to win outright. San Diego’s a worthy underdog, with ATS runs of 22-9-3 when getting points and 5-1 as a home pup.

Total (44.5): Qualcomm Stadium is the home of unders lately, with total staying low in 10 of the last 11. The Ravens’ defense is yielding just 15.5 ppg (third).

Pittsburgh at San Francisco

Why Steelers cover: Like Baltimore and New England, they’re battling for the No. 1 seed. So this West Coast trip is a huge one for Pittsburgh, which has cashed in the last four following an ATS loss.

Why 49ers cover: Despite upset loss at Arizona last week, they are still No. 1 in the NFL at 10-2-1 ATS and really want to beat out the Saints for the No. 2 seed and a playoff bye. It won’t hurt to be at home, where San Fran has won and cashed in five straight and six of seven this year. In fact, Jim Harbaugh’s troops are 17-6-3 ATS in the last 26 at home. Plus, Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger is hobbled, and star defender James Harrison may be serving a one-game suspension.

Total: The Niners’ defense is No. 1 in the league, yielding a meager 14.0 ppg. Pittsburgh is No. 2 allowing just 15.2 ppg.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
12/17/2011 09:48 AM


Thursday, December 15

NFL Total Bias: Week 15's best over/under bets

Professional handicappers and meteorologists have a lot in common.

Both spend their days analyzing trends and statistics while secretly sneaking into the back room to consult crystal balls as they try to predict the future. Whether they’ll admit it or not, there’s more than a little chance involved in their success rates.

Both are absolutely thankless gigs too. Since it’s your job to get everything right, you only hear about it when you’re wrong.

You have to learn to make the most of your hot streaks while shrugging off the cold spells.

Thanks to global warming (or whatever else you want to attribute it to), we haven’t had to deal with any major weather issues apart from that freak rain storm in Carolina back in Week 3. Usually by this point in the year, we’ve already had a couple of snowstorms to contend with.

I may be in the minority here, but in all honesty I can’t wait until Mother Nature starts waving her magic wand on these games. I’m all for any improvements that makes the NFL more entertaining and marketable, but I’m a traditionalist when it comes to weather.

If you can’t win outdoors, you don’t deserve to win, which makes me begin to take a second look at teams like the Saints, Lions, Falcons, and even the Texans this time of year.

None of those teams should see major weather issues this week and while it still too early to start jumping all over lines based on the long-range forecast, it looks as though the elements could be a factor in at least a few games in Week 15.

Shockingly, it’s expected to be cold and windy in Chicago, with similar conditions in Buffalo and New York to go along with possibilities of snow.

As cold conditions threaten to impact those tilts, I’ve been enjoying a nice December warm front with my total picks. Sure, a 6-0 run isn’t anything to get worked up over, but at least it’s pushed my season record back to the land of respectability.

And I’m happy to enjoy my days in the sun when I can get them.

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7, 47)

Buccaneers tight end Kellen Winslow told reporters earlier this week that if the team canned coach Raheem Morris it would “ruin” the club. I guess “ruin” is a relative term considering the Bucs have to be pretty close to rock-bottom as it is after losing seven straight games.

Nobody can seem to put their finger on what happened to this team, but it’s not rocket science. The Bucs overachieved last year and just aren’t that good this season.

Don’t get me wrong, they’re better than their 4-9 straight up record indicates, but when you’ve allowed at least 30 points in four of the last five, that speaks for itself.

The guy I can’t figure out in this mess is Josh Freeman. While he has had a lot of tipped balls that ended up as interceptions and his receivers haven’t exactly helped him out much, he’s playing well below his potential.

Maybe this is the game he gets back on track to help save Morris’ ass.

Pick: Over

Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 36)

If the Chicago Bears are going to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, they’re going to have to lose this prevent offense. Caleb Haine’s struggling with his decision making, but you need to take at least a few chances to keep defenses honest. He has the arm to get the ball downfield, so let him air it out a bit to stretch the coverage.

Last week’s collapse in Denver was a heartbreaker and you have to wonder how this offense will respond. My bet is we’re probably in for some more Barber-esque bonehead plays.

On the bright side for Bears backers, at least this stretch of offensive impotence will likely get Matt Forte a contract.

Pick: Under

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5, 41)

Something’s fishy with this line and even though I’ve tried to ignore it all week, I can’t get away from it.

I thought for sure we’d see an over/under in the mid-high 30s after Tennessee held New Orleans to just 22 points last week.

And I don’t think it matters much whether Jake Locker or Matt Hasselbeck starts for the Titans. The under is 12-1 in the last 13 games combined between these two teams and even though the Colts' offense has looked better lately, they're going to have a tough time against this defense.

Pick: Under

Last week's record: 3-0
Season record to date: 25-18

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
12/17/2011 09:51 AM


Saturday, December 17

Saturday Night Football: Cowboys at Buccaneers

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+7, 47)

THE STORY: The Dallas Cowboys were less than six minutes from putting a stranglehold on the NFC East race and a playoff berth a week ago. But, as has been the case for much of the season, the Cowboys couldn't stand prosperity, blew a 12-point lead in the final 3 1/2 minutes and dropped a 37-34 decision to the New York Giants, their bitter division rival. So, instead of holding a two-game lead with three to play, Dallas finds itself in a tie with the Giants atop the NFC East as it prepares to visit the reeling Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Saturday night.

TV: NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE: Cowboys -7, O/U 46.5

WEATHER: Cloudy skies and 6-mph winds are in the forecast for Tampa. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 60s.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (7-6, 4-8-1 ATS): Dallas did more than lose a football game against the Giants. Rookie running back DeMarco Murray was lost for the season with a fractured ankle. Murray had ripped off three 100-yard games and helped sparked a four-game winning streak, but his injury puts oft-injured Felix Jones back in the starting lineup. Jones ran for 106 yards on 16 carries against the Giants. QB Tony Romo threw a season-high four TD passes and guided Dallas into position for a game-tying field goal that was blocked. He has thrown for 15 scores and two interceptions in the last six games.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (4-9, 4-9 ATS): Since beating New Orleans on Oct. 16 to move to 4-2 on the season, Tampa Bay has unraveled, losing seven consecutive games. The Buccaneers were pounded at Jacksonville 41-14 last week, and they have absorbed a pair of brutal defeats at home during the skid, falling to Houston (37-9) and NFC South rival Carolina (38-19). Sore-armed QB Josh Freeman has thrown a league-high 18 interceptions after being picked off only six times last season. The defense has been equally inept by allowing an NFC-worst 370 points, including at least 35 points in four of the past five games.


1. Dallas, which has won the last three against the Bucs, signed veteran RB Sammy Morris this week.

2. Tampa Bay has not lost eight straight games since 1987.

3. “It’s great for you guys to scare my family half to death and talk about that stuff all throughout. ... For me, a chance to ruin (Cowboys coach) Jason Garrett’s season, and let you talk about him.” – Bucs coach Raheem Morris on rumors he could be fired.


Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 34, Buccaneers 20. Dallas breezes to snap its two-game losing streak.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
12/17/2011 09:52 AM


Saturday, December 17

Tale of the tape: Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7, 47)


The Cowboys average 24.4 points (10th-most) thanks to a balanced attack. Tony Romo (26 TDs, 9 INTs) has terrific targets in Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Laurent Robinson and Jason Witten. RB DeMarco Murray was lost for the season after fracturing an ankle last week, but Felix Jones can carry the load, as evidenced by his 137 total yards vs. the Giants.

Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman practiced fully this week after playing through shoulder discomfort in the blowout loss to Jacksonville. Even healthy, it’s hard to trust Freeman (12 TDs, 18 INTs), who has regressed in a big way. WR Dezmon Briscoe likely will start opposite Mike Williams with Arrelious Benn dealing with a concussion. LeGarrette Blount averages 5.0 yards per carry but has fumbled five times. The Bucs average 17.8 points (26th-most).

Edge: Dallas


DeMarcus Ware (15 sacks) leads a fierce Dallas pass rush, but the linebackers and secondary are subpar. The Cowboys give up 243.2 passing yards (24th) and 21.6 points per game (16th). Corner Terence Newman is no longer elite or even above average.

Tampa Bay just gave up 41 points to Jacksonville’s pathetic offense. The Bucs rank 31st in points allowed (28.5). Injuries have decimated the defensive front, and Tampa is allowing 4.6 yards per carry. The only good news is that top corner Aqib Talib (hamstring) practiced fully and is expected to start.

Edge: Dallas

Special teams

The Cowboys have failed on crucial field-goal tries at the end of their last two games, with one getting blocked. But Dan Bailey is still 31 of 35 this season.

The Bucs’ Connor Barth is 24 of 26 on field-goal tries, including hitting 2 of 3 from 50-plus yards. Both teams are mediocre in the return game.

Edge: Tampa Bay

Word on the street

"I think he's proven to us that he can carry the ball more. We can throw it to him more. He carried the load (last Sunday night) and did a really nice job for us. And we've got a lot of confidence in him." – Dallas coach Jason Garrett’s on Felix Jones as a workhorse back in the absence of DeMarco Murray.

"The guys, they support me through wins, through losses, through whatever. I know there's a cloud outside the organization, but there's a ray of sunshine in the building." – Tampa Bay coach Raheem Morris, whose job is in jeopardy due to the team’s seven-game skid.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
12/17/2011 09:56 AM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/15/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
12/12/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
12/11/11 15-­13-­0 53.57% +­350 Detail
12/08/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
12/05/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
12/04/11 15-­13-­0 53.57% +­350 Detail
12/01/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
Totals 32-­34-­0 48.48% -­2700

Saturday, December 17

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Dallas - 8:20 PM ET Dallas -7 500

Tampa Bay - Over 47.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
12/17/2011 10:06 AM

Week 15 Preview: Cowboys at Buccaneers



Kickoff: Saturday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -6.5, Total: 47.5

The Cowboys are desperate for a win and there is no better NFC team to be facing right now than the Buccaneers, who have lost seven straight games (1-6 ATS).

The struggling Bucs are once again trying to figure out how to win at home. They’ve lost three straight at Raymond James (SU and ATS), the last two in ugly fashion (outscored by a combined 75-28 by Houston and Carolina). They’re now 5-10 ATS at home over the past two seasons, and their porous run defense figures to have trouble stopping a Dallas running game that was still effective with RB Felix Jones replacing injured DeMarco Murray last week. Considering the new, conservative Tony Romo, that should play into the Cowboys’ hands. The pick here is DALLAS to win and cover.

This FoxSheets give two more reasons to fade the Buccaneers:

TAMPA BAY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 17.7, OPPONENT 26.4 - (Rating = 2*).

TAMPA BAY is 1-10 ATS (9.1%, -10.0 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 13.8, OPPONENT 29.5 - (Rating = 2*).

The Over is a combined 7-3 in the past five games for each team (4-1 Tampa Bay, 3-2 Dallas), and this three-star FoxSheets trend urges bettors to bank on the OVER for Saturday’s game:

Play Over - Home teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. (37-12 over the last 10 seasons.) (75.5%, +23.8 units. Rating = 3*).

The Cowboys must quickly forget about blowing a 12-point lead with under four minutes left in regulation to the division rival Giants. Tampa Bay should oblige, as Dallas has beaten the Bucs in the past three meetings (SU and ATS), including the last matchup in 2009. Romo threw for 353 yards and 3 TD in that game, leading the Cowboys to a 34-21 win. Romo is also coming off a 321-yard, four-touchdown performance against New York where he averaged more than 10 yards per attempt. He now has thrown for 26 TD and 9 INT on the year. After Murray went down with a fractured ankle, RB Felix Jones stepped in and rushed for 106 yards on 16 carries, while adding six catches for 31 yards. He’s in line for another productive night against a weak Bucs run defense (140 YPG, 28th in NFL), that has allowed 160 rushing YPG over the past three contests.

Tampa Bay actually had a 14-0 lead last Sunday before surrendering 41 unanswered points to a Jaguars team that had failed to surpass 20 points in any of their first dozen games. The Bucs turned the ball over seven times and now have 23 giveaways in the past seven weeks. QB Josh Freeman threw two interceptions on Sunday and now leads the NFL with 18 picks on the season. He could easily regain his confidence against a Cowboys pass defense that has surrendered 291 passing YPG in the past four games, which includes allowing Eli Manning to throw for 400 yards. The Dallas run defense has not been as kind, holding opponents to 91 rushing YPG on 3.4 YPC in the past four games. This does not bode well for inconsistent Bucs RB LeGarrette Blount who has three 100-yard rushing games and four games of less than 35 rushing yards.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
12/18/2011 12:21 PM

Sunday, December 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati -7 500
St. Louis - Under 38.5 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +1 500
Buffalo - Under 41.5 500

Washington - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Giants -5.5 500
N.Y. Giants - Over 46.5 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis +6.5 500
Indianapolis - Under 41.5 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Chicago -3.5 500
Chicago - Over 34.5 500

Green Bay - 1:00 PM ET Green Bay -10.5 500
Kansas City - Over 45.5 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +6 500
Houston - Under 45.5 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET New Orleans -7 500
Minnesota - Over 53.5 500

Detroit - 4:05 PM ET Oakland +3 500
Oakland - Over 47.5 500

Cleveland - 4:15 PM ET Arizona -6.5 500
Arizona - Under 37.5 500

N.Y. Jets - 4:15 PM ET N.Y. Jets +2.5 500
Philadelphia - Under 44 500

New England - 4:15 PM ET New England -7 500
Denver - Under 47.5 500

Baltimore - 8:20 PM ET San Diego +1 500
San Diego - Over 44 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
12/19/2011 06:04 PM


Monday, December 19

What bettors need to know: Steelers at 49ers

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 38)

THE STORY: The Pittsburgh Steelers could be without two key players for Monday night’s matchup with the host San Francisco 49ers. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with a severe high ankle sprain that has kept him from practicing through Thursday. Being without the two-time Super Bowl-winning QB is not an appealing thought for the Steelers, particularly when going up against a defense that has surrendered the fewest points in the league this season. Pittsburgh LB James Harrison is expected to miss the contest after he was suspended one game for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Cleveland Browns QB Colt McCoy. The Niners have wrapped up the NFC West, but have lost two of their last three games.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

LINE: 49ers -3, O/U 38. San Francisco is holding steady as a 3-point favorite, while the total opened at 39 and could be found as low as 37.5 Sunday afternoon.

WEATHER: Meteorologists expect clear skies with light winds and a temperature around 52 degrees.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (10-3): Pittsburgh has won four straight to remain in a four-way tie for the best record in the AFC. The Steelers have been dominant defensively since their bye week, allowing a total of 19 points in their last three games. They could be tested without Harrison, who has 8.0 sacks despite missing four games due to injury. Roethlisberger played the second half of a 14-3 win over Cleveland despite the ankle injury, but said the pain feels worse this week. He has not missed a game because of injury since December 2009. Charlie Batch will start if Roethlisberger can’t go.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (10-3): San Francisco blew a 12-point second-half lead in a 21-19 loss at Arizona last week. Stud MLB Patrick Willis sat out his second straight game with a hamstring injury. The Niners have struggled to find the end zone, getting 10 field goals from David Akers in the past three games. RB Frank Gore ripped off five straight 100-yard games earlier in the season, but has been dealing with injuries and has not surpassed 88 yards in his last five. QB Alex Smith is coming off one of his worst games, failing to complete half his passes and throwing for 175 yards.

- Pittsburgh is 9-4 against the spread in its last 13 games as an underdog.
- San Francisco is 8-0 against the number in its last eight as a home favorite.
- The over is 6-2 in Pittsburgh's last eight road games.


1. San Francisco has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 35 contests and is the first team to not surrender a rushing TD in the first 13 games.

2. Pittsburgh has won its last six appearances on Monday Night Football.

3. This will mark only the third meeting between the teams in nine seasons. The 49ers hold a 10-9 all-time series edge.

PREDICTION: Steelers 16, 49ers 13. Even with a hobbled Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh’s offense has a leg up on the Niners.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
12/19/2011 06:06 PM


Monday, December 19

Tale of the tape: Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 38.5)


The big question here is obviously Ben Roethlisberger’s status. He’s still questionable with his high ankle sprain but did manage to complete 16 of his 21 pass attempts last week against Cleveland with two touchdowns and one interception. Pittsburgh’s rushing offense ranks just 17th (114.5 yards per game) with Rashard Mendenhall struggling to replicate last year’s career season. He has just one 100-yard rushing game this year and averages 3.8 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, Frank Gore is carrying the load for San Francisco with 1054 rushing yards and six touchdowns, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. The 49ers rank seventh in rushing offense and have a league-low 10 turnovers this season as Alex Smith completes 61.7 percent of his throws. However, the Niners have scored majors in just 35.6 percent of their red zone trips and Smith has been sacked 18 times over the last three games.

As long as Roethlisberger plays, the Steelers have the decided edge.

Edge: Steelers


The 49ers lead the league in both scoring defense (14 points per game) and rushing yards (70.5 yards per game). They still haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown all year and sit second in the league with 31 takeaways. Last week they held the Cardinals to 55 rushing yards, but John Skeleton did throw for 282 yards and three touchdowns. San Francisco ranks 19th in passing defense, giving up 234.5 yards per game through the air.

There isn’t a soft spot in Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers sit second in total defense and scoring defense (15.2 points per game) while leading the league in passing defense (179.1 yards per game). They have allowed just one touchdown over the last three games and are beginning to force turnovers again. They still have only 14 takeaways on the year, but eight of those have come over that three-game span.

Edge: Steelers

Special teams

San Francisco leads the league averaging 28 yards per kickoff return and sits fourth in punt returns at 12.3 yards per attempt. Ted Ginn Jr. is a major weapon and has already taken a punt and a kick back for touchdowns this year. The 49ers also have a solid edge in the kicking game. David Akers has hit 36 of his 42 field goal tries with a long of 55 yards while punter Andy Lee is tied for first in the league with a 50.7-yard average. Pittsburgh’s Shaun Suisham has hit just 75 percent of his kicks with a long of 49.

Edge: 49ers

Word on the street

“I could see him playing against the 49ers. I guess we won’t know for sure for a couple days, but with a late Monday night game and two more days to rest and rehab I think he’ll be all right to play. And I certainly wouldn’t bet against him.” – Pittsburgh guard Ramon Foster on Ben Roethlisberger’s status for Monday’s game.

"This week, we're going to hurry up and get to the line of scrimmage and get set. We've been a little slow in the last weeks at getting in the huddle, getting a play and getting to the line of scrimmage. We've got to give Alex a chance to see the defense so he can make the calls and give the line a better opportunity to see what's going on before we snap the ball." – San Francisco tight end Delanie Walker.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:31402 Followers:37
12/19/2011 06:10 PM

MNF - Steelers at 49ers

December 17, 2011

For the first time in several weeks, bettors will be looking forward to the Monday night game in the NFL as a pair of 10-3 teams hooks up at Candlestick Park. The NFC West champion 49ers are shooting for a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs at this point, while the Steelers look to overtake the Ravens in the AFC North.

Pittsburgh has plenty to play for at this point, but its two-time Super Bowl winning quarterback is not at 100%. Ben Roethlisberger suffered a high left ankle sprain in a 14-3 victory over the Browns last Thursday, as the Steelers failed to cover as 14-point favorites. Roethlisberger toughed it out to throw two touchdown passes and complete 16 of 21 passes for 280 yards. The Steelers improved to 6-1 at home, while heading into San Francisco with Roethlisberger listed as a game-time decision after being limited in practice on Friday.

The Niners' quest at hosting a second-round playoff game took a serious hit in a 21-19 setback at Arizona last Sunday, as San Francisco couldn't cash as 3 ½-point favorites. Frank Gore's 37-yard touchdown run gave the Niners a seemingly comfortable 19-7 advantage in the third quarter, but Arizona's John Skelton threw a pair of touchdowns to give the Cardinals their third straight victory.

Each team is dealing with issues in their linebacking core, as Pro Bowlers James Harrison and Patrick Willis are not expected to play. Harrison received a one-game suspension by the NFL for his helmet-to-helmet hit on Browns' quarterback Colt McCoy, as the Steelers' standout was denied appeal on his ban against San Francisco. Willis missed the Arizona loss with a hamstring injury, as the Niners' defense faces a Pittsburgh team averaging 371.6 yards/game (12th in NFL).

The Steelers can either be the top seed in the AFC or finish as low as fifth when the playoff picture gets settled on January 1. Pittsburgh has now won 10 or more games in four of Mike Tomlin's five seasons as head coach, but the road hasn't been kind this season from an ATS perspective. The defending AFC North champions have covered only two of six games away from Heinz Field, even though the Steelers are 4-2 SU on the highway.

Candlestick Park has turned into one of the top home-field advantages in the league, as Jim Harbaugh's club is 6-1 SU and 6-0-1 ATS at home. Dating back to October 2009, San Francisco owns a 14-4 SU and 12-3-2 ATS the last 18 games by the Bay, while the lone loss this season came in overtime to the Cowboys back in Week 2. The stingy San Francisco defense has shut down opponents at home by allowing 10 points or less four times, but those efforts came against St. Louis, Arizona, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay.

Playing NFC foes has been a strong suit for the Steelers over the years, including a 2-0 SU/ATS mark this season. Pittsburgh has compiled a 5-2 SU/ATS record since the start of 2010 in interconference matchups, but one of those losses came in February's Super Bowl defeat to Green Bay. Meanwhile, the Niners are 4-2 SU/ATS against AFC competition in this same time span, including victories over the Bengals and Browns this season.

San Francisco isn't used to play under the Monday night lights recently, putting together a 4-0 ATS and 2-2 SU record since 2008. The Niners split a pair of games last season, including a 25-22 loss as five-point home underdogs to the Saints in Week 2. The last time the Steelers visited Candlestick Park in 2003, the Niners pulled off a Monday night victory, 30-14 as four-point favorites.

From a totals perspective, each team is 7-6 to the 'under,' while the Steelers are riding a three-game 'under' streak. The Niners are in the midst of a 6-2 'under' run, including 'unders' in three of the previous four home contests. Pittsburgh has been involved in more 'overs' away from Heinz Field with a 4-2 'over' ledger in six road contests.

The Niners are listed as three-point home favorites, as the game was off the board most of the week due to Roethlisberger's status. The total is set between 38 ½ and 39, while gametime temperatures look to be in the mid-50's. Things kick off at 8:30 PM EST from Candlestick Park, as the game will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: