cnotes Posts:25919 Followers:33
12/15/2011 07:31 PM

Week 15 Preview: Jets at Eagles

NEW YORK JETS (8-5)

at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (5-8)


Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -3, Total: 44.5

The Eagles look to snap a three-game home losing skid when they host a red-hot Jets team seeking its fourth straight victory.

This is a battle of two of the NFL’s most disappointing teams. The Jets are still in the thick of the playoff hunt despite erratic play all season. They’ve not been good on the road, going 2-4 SU and ATS, and they continue to search for an identity on offense. They’ve generated 350-plus yards of offense just once in their past 10 games and have just one win against a current .500 or better team (Dallas 7-6). However, the Eagles are well below .500 at 5-8, and despite scoring 26 points in Miami last week, they only gained 239 total yards (51 rushing) with QB Michael Vick back on the field. But Vick will be tested by a great Jets secondary, and don’t overlook New York’s run defense, which has allowed 100 yards or less to six of its past seven opponents. The pick here is NEW YORK to win on the road.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Jets:

N.Y. JETS are 15-3 ATS (83.3%, +11.7 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was N.Y. JETS 21.1, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 2*).

Despite a pedestrian 299 total YPG during its three-game win streak, New York has piled up 99 points in this time frame. QB Mark Sanchez scored four touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing) in last week’s 37-10 rout over Kansas City, giving him nine scores in three weeks. RB Shonn Greene is also on a roll with 295 rushing yards (5.0 YPC), 96 receiving yards and four touchdowns in the past three games. One bit of bad news for the Jets is that starting SS Jim Leonhard suffered what appears to be a season-ending knee injury last Sunday. The absence of the heady Leonhard will make life easier on Vick and the rest of Philly’s passing game.

The Eagles have to be concerned that the NFC’s leading rusher, LeSean McCoy, was held to 38 yards on 27 carries last week. Couple that with Vick’s unwillingness run (two carries against Miami) in fear of taking a shot to the ribs in the open field, especially since Vick isn’t looking to run anymore. He carried the ball just twice against the Dolphins for nine yards, and showed that being a pocket passer isn’t his style. Vick completed only 15-of-30 passes for 208 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. The Eagles have never lost to the Jets franchise, going 8-0 all-time versus New York.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25919 Followers:33
12/15/2011 07:33 PM

Las Vegas Money Moves

December 15, 2011

The game of the week on paper appears to be Monday night’s key matchup with Pittsburgh (10-3) traveling to San Francisco (10-3). However, if letting the people speak by volume of tickets written on a single game, New England’s (10-3) visit to Denver (8-5) is the overwhelming choice as the must-see matchup of Week 15.
And it doesn’t help the Las Vegas sport books have the Steelers-Niners battle off the board due to the status of Pitt quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s ankle. Roethlisberger is officially listed as ‘probable’ for the game, although Lucky’s sports books -- the one book that has had the game up all week -- currently has a number up as though Big Ben is extremely doubtful.

“From everything I’m reading in the Pittsburgh papers, I’m booking it as if Roethlisberger is not going to play,” said Lucky’s sports book director Jimmy Vaccaro who hails from Pittsburgh. “I’ve seen this play out with him before and not practicing on Wednesday is the first major indicator he won’t be playing. I just told our guys to move quick on the game as more information becomes official.”

Lucky’s opened with the 49ers as 1-point favorites and currently have them at -3 (-120).

Should Roethlisberger not be able to go, the Steelers would have Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon as back-up options which would further take some luster off the match-up.

The 49ers have lost two of their last three games coming in, while the Steelers are currently on a four game winning streak and have won eight of their last nine.

“This is a big game for the 49ers and wrong time of the year for them to start slumping,” said Vaccaro.

Now, back to the Broncos and Patriots. You’d be hard pressed to not have some kind of emotion one way or another on this game because it’s been crammed down our throats all week if watching any sports show or listening to talk radio. The Tim Tebow-fever has swept the nation and people can’t seem to get enough which is why program directors of all kind are keeping the topic on a continual cycle.

The biggest question this week is why the Patriots are 6 ½-point road favorites. The Wynn Resort opened the Patriots -5 ½ and were bet up the ladder with large money a couple times to get to their current number, which answers the why part.

But think about it, just last week the Patriots were -7 ½ at Washington, a team that had lost seven of eight games coming in. This week they are now laying -6 ½ at the home of a team that has won seven of eight.

The public is currently taking the Patriots at a 3-to-2 ratio in ticket counts at the betting windows with the feeling that the Patriots and QB Tom Brady will be a major upgrade in talent from the teams Denver has been beating. Even with the Patriots allowing a league worst 416 yards per game, the Brady factor is what is driving the bets here.

However, Denver hasn’t been too kind to Brady over his career. It’s surprising to see that he is only 1-6 against the Broncos while having dominated just about every other team in the league. The Broncos edge hasn’t just been during the Brady reign, either, as Denver has won 17 of the last 21 meetings.

There are a couple of pivotal games in the NFC East this week beginning with the Cowboys (7-6) who travel to Tampa Bay (4-9) on Saturday for a night game. On Sunday morning the Giants (7-6) play the Redskins (4-9) and then later in the day the Jets (8-5) play the Eagles (5-8). As hard as it may be to fathom, the Eagles still have a chance at winning the division with a few scenarios going their way, which begin with having Dallas and the Giants both losing.

We almost have a Week 17 type of situation here where the Eagles will know what they’re playing for by the time their game starts. Should the Cowboys and Giants both win, it’s all over for the Eagles regardless of what they do Sunday. Unlike Week 17 teams in the playoff hunt, the Eagles have known for some time that their hopes were minimal for about the last two months. Having it become a reality finally shouldn’t be too much of a sting to their performance.

The Eagles opened as -1 ½-point favorites and are now -3 (EVEN). The Cowboys opened -6 ½ and are now -7 and the Giants have stayed steady at the Wynn at -7 (EVEN) with the Hilton having the low number in town at -6 ½.

The Buccaneers are an interesting look this week just because of a similar situation they were in earlier this season. In Week 5, the 49ers pounded the Buccaneers 48-3. The following week the Saints came to town as six-point favorites and Tampa Bay won 26-20. Last week Jacksonville put up 41 and we’ll have to see if the Bucs respond similarly against Dallas with the same type of spread against them as the Saints game.

The Wynn opened the Packers (13-0) at -14 (EVEN) when almost everyone else opened -13 ½. The Wynn is currently -13 ½ while the number is steady at -14 at most shops. There won’t be too many Chiefs (5-8) tickets out there this week, but there is a little question attached to bettors’ minds before making a bet on the Packers due to what happened to wide receiver Greg Jennings (knee) last week. How far ahead will the Packers be before resting their key players to avoid injury? And once they do call the dogs off, does it set up an opportunity for a back-door cover by the Chiefs with a meaningless late touchdown?

Vaccaro doesn’t think all that will matter just because it’s the Chiefs.

“The first thing to consider in this game before we start talking about all the other Packers intangibles is how bad the Chiefs are. They’ve scored 45 points in their last six games and now they have a coaching gone. That team is a mess right now,” said Vaccaro.

“As for the Packers, I think they’re going for it all and embracing the undefeated thing and wouldn’t expect them to change that despite Jennings getting hurt last week. I could see this game quickly going from a 14-3 game to 31-3 rather quickly like what happened to the Raiders last week.”

The Raiders (7-6) opened as one-point favorites against the Lions (8-5), but Detroit money quickly moved the Lions to one-point road favorites.

The Dolphins-Bills game has been off the board at just about every sports book because of the status of Matt Moore who is likely to miss with a concussion. J.P. Losman took all the snaps in Wednesday’s practice for the Dolphins. Lucky’s is the only book in town to have it on the board and offer the game at PICK ’EM.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25919 Followers:33
12/15/2011 07:35 PM

Weary of the West

December 15, 2011

Three weeks of regular season remain in the NFL and while the majority of games late in the year become meaningless, opportunities are still abound.

A particular angle that gamblers follow in the NFL is the time zone trend. Bettors like to fade teams traveling, especially to opposite coasts. I don’t consider a one-hour time zone difference to be a big deal, but when you have teams traveling from East to West coasts and vice versa, then you can see a big difference in play.

When you delve into it further, it’s been said that the tougher of the two trips is going from East to West. It makes sense since clubs in the Pacific Time Zone aren’t used to playing at 1:00 p.m. ET, which would be 10:00 a.m. ET for the West Coast team club. Most would believe it certainly seems a lot harder than playing at 1:00 p.m. PT for the East Coast clubs, right?

The obvious answer is yes, but that hasn’t been the case this season.

The NFL has five teams -- Arizona, Oakland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle-- that play in the Pacific Time Zone.

We checked the numbers and this group has done well when they host teams from the Eastern Time Zone.

Arizona Cardinals
Date Visiting Team Line (Total) Outcome ATS Results
Sept. 11 Carolina Panthers -7 (37) Won 28-21 Push-Over
Oct. 2 New York Giants +1.5 (45) Lost 27-31 Loss-Over
Oct. 23 Pittsburgh Steelers +4 (46) Lost 20-32 Loss-Over




San Francisco 49ers
Date Visiting Team Line (Total) Outcome ATS Results
Sept. 18 Dallas Cowboys +3 (41) Lost 24-27 Push-Over
Oct. 9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 (41) Won 48-3 Win-Over
Oct. 30 Cleveland Browns -9 (38) Won 20-10 Win-Under
Nov. 13 New York Giants -4 (43) Won 27-20 Win-Over




Seattle Seahawks
Date Visiting Team Line (Total) Outcome ATS Results
Oct. 2 Atlanta Falcons +6 (39) Lost 28-30 Win-Over
Oct. 30 Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 (37) Lost 12-34 Loss-Over
Nov.13 Baltimore Ravens +7 (39) Won 22-17 Win-Push
Nov.27 Washington Redskins -3 (37) Lost 17-23 Loss-Over
Dec. 1 Philadelphia Eagles +3 (43) Won 31-14 Win-Over




Oakland Raiders
Date Visiting Team Line (Total) Outcome ATS Results
Sept. 25 New York Jets +2.5 (40) Won 34-24 Win-Over
Oct. 2 New England Patriots +6.5 (55) Lost 19-31 Loss-Under
Oct. 16 Cleveland Browns -7 (45) Won 24-17 Push-Under




San Diego Chargers
Date Visiting Team Line (Total) Outcome ATS Results
Oct. 2 Miami Dolphins -6.5 (45) Won 26-16 Win-Under
Dec. 11 Buffalo Bills -7 (49) Won 37-10 Win-Under



Head coach Norv Turner and the Chargers have underachieved this season – again – yet San Diego is 2-0 both straight up and against the spread against teams from the East.

San Francisco has been solid too, going 3-1 straight up and 3-0-1 against the spread. And, the lone loss could’ve easily been a winner against Dallas in Week 2.

The Cardinals (1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) have struggled the most at home against East Coast clubs, but they managed to save face on the road. Arizona has gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS when playing in the Eastern Time Zone this season and you should make a note that the club heads to Cincinnati next week.

Overall, the squads playing in the Pacific Time Zone have gone 10-7 SU (59%) and 9-5-3 ATS (64%) versus teams from the Eastern Time Zone. Also, the ‘over’ has gone 11-5-1 (63%) in these affairs as well.

So why do we tell you this information?

In Week 15, you have four matchups where teams are traveling from East to West, and two of them will be featured under the lights:

Cleveland at Arizona
Detroit at Oakland
Baltimore at San Diego
Pittsburgh at San Francisco

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25919 Followers:33
12/17/2011 09:30 AM

Baltimore Ravens, San Diego Chargers Sunday Night Football

Ravens RB Ray Rice has rumbled for over 300 yards the past two weeks.
The Baltimore Ravens bring a season-high four-game winning streak to San Diego for a key AFC matchup against the dangerous Chargers on Sunday Night Football. The Ravens (10-3) have played three of their last four games at home and lost in their only other trip to the West Coast earlier this season.

Baltimore’s last loss came at Seattle back in Week 10, 22-17. The Seahawks jumped out to a 22-7 lead on the Ravens in that game, and the Chargers (6-7) have used fast starts to dispose of their past two opponents following a season-high six-game losing streak.

Game time is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by NBC. Baltimore opened as a 1-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen and has been bet up as high as -2½ at some sportsbooks with the total moving from 43 to 44.

San Diego seems to be putting everything together to make a run at the playoffs down the stretch. But it might be too little, too late because either the Ravens or Pittsburgh Steelers will likely lock down one of the Wild Card spots in the conference. The Chargers trail the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos by two games with three games to play.

Baltimore is currently in the driver’s seat in the AFC North after sweeping both meetings with the Steelers, even though both teams share the same record. The Ravens have not faced great competition in their past two games, beating up on the Indianapolis Colts and Cleveland Browns by identical scores. The Colts and Browns are a combined 4-22 this season.

San Diego’s last two wins have not come against winning teams either, as the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars are 9-17 between them. The Chargers were very impressive offensively though in beating them by an average margin of nearly 26 points.

Five of San Diego’s six losses during the skid came against teams with a winning record. The exception was in Week 8 on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs, who pulled off a 23-20 victory in overtime after Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers fumbled the snap on a late drive in regulation that could have led to the game-winning field goal.

Rivers has played much better lately, failing to throw an interception in the past three games after throwing at least one in nine of the first 10. He has also gotten great support from second-year running back Ryan Mathews, who has averaged 121 rushing yards during that same stretch.

The ‘under’ has cashed in San Diego’s last three home games and is 10-1 in the past 11 at Qualcomm Stadium dating back to last season. The ‘under’ is also 3-0 in Baltimore’s last three games overall. The home team is 6-2 against the spread in the past eight meetings between the Ravens and Chargers.

It appears the Ravens will see linebacker Ray Lewis return to action after missing the previous four games with a toe injury. Cornerback Lardarius Webb has been using a walking boot this week as he battles his own injured toe, but coach John Harbaugh said he expects the third-year pro to play this Sunday.

San Diego is reporting only two injuries of note this week, both defensive backups. End Jacques Cesaire (left ankle) is doubtful and safety Darrell Stuckey (groin) is questionable.

The weather forecast for Sunday in San Diego is mostly sunny with a high temperature of 60.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25919 Followers:33
12/17/2011 09:36 AM

NFL odds: Week 15 opening line report

It's Tebow Time up against the Golden Boy and sportsbooks couldn't be happier.

The two NFL icons meet in Week 15’s marquee matchup when the AFC West-leading Broncos host the AFC-East leading Patriots.

“It’s a beauty, ain’t it?” Wynn Las Vegas sportsbook manager John Avello said. “The Patriots are always a popular team but in this matchup there could be equal liking for both.

“There’s no reason not to play Tebow right now – just the way he keeps his team in the game. On Sunday the crowd in the book was yelling, “Tebow! Tebow!” I haven’t heard that for too many players over the years.”

Denver’s miracle overtime win, 13-10 over Chicago, pushed the game for Broncos backers who laid 3 at the Wynn.

Covers.com’s official line was Denver -3.5, dropping Tebow to 6-2 against the spread since taking over at quarterback. The Broncos, however, have won six straight and seven of eight.

Avello opened Sunday’s game at home to the Patriots at -5.5, but the line was quickly bet up to 6. Most books are offering 6 or 6.5.

“If this number were made four weeks ago, you’re looking at 9.5 or 10,” said Lucky’s oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro, who was offering 6.5. “You have to give [Tebow] credit. No matter how you take him apart – good, bad, indifferent, divine intervention – the kid gets it done.”

Pete Korner, founder of The Sports Club oddsmaking service in Las Vegas, sent out 6 to his clients. Korner wanted to recommend 7, but his partners overruled him.

“The teams that Denver has been beaten haven’t exactly been upper-tier teams and they’ve been fortunate to be in low-scoring games,” Korner said. “I don’t think Tebow can generate the offense to stay with New England, because I think New England is going to score 24, 30 points.”

At the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook, the line opened at 6, dropped to 5 and has gone back to 6.

“The action is going to reflect your opinion of Tebow,” SuperBook manager Jay Kornegay said. “A lot of detractors certainly are going to support New England, and people on the other side are going to pick Tebow and this miracle team.

“This game comes down to: Would you rather be lucky than good?” Kornegay added. “Some people would rather be lucky.”

How much is Big Ben worth?

Many books are holding off on posting the Monday night line for Pittsburgh-San Francisco until Ben Roethlisberger’s status is clarified.

If it looks like Big Ben will play through his high ankle sprain, the line will be San Fran -2 or thereabouts. Without Big Ben, Pittsburgh could be as much as a 6-point underdog, oddsmakers said.

Pittsburgh coaches showed what they think of 37-year-old backup Charlie Batch by putting Big Ben back on the field for the second half against Cleveland.

It didn’t matter that Roethlisberger struggled to make handoffs and could not move in the pocket.

“I don’t really blame them,” Kornegay said, noting Batch’s age and rust. “Ben was able to throw a couple of passes from the pocket.

“Obviously, he can’t move and make the normal plays he makes every single game. If he plays, he’s got to be 80 percent at best and that’s also got to be reflected in the spread. You can’t just leave it as, ‘He’s going to play.’”

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Green Bay at Kansas City (13.5, 45.5), Jacksonville at Atlanta (-11, 42.5)

Defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel will coach the Chiefs now that Todd Haley has been fired. The Packers will be without top wideout Greg Jennings, but that just means more opportunities for Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley and Randall Cobb.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Detroit at Oakland (-1, 47.5), Baltimore at San Diego (1.5, 43.5)

The Lions probably would be on a three-game losing streak if the refs hadn’t missed a blatant facemask penalty in the final seconds Sunday against Minnesota.

They’re 2-6 ATS since starting 4-0-1 ATS.

The Ravens are 9-6 ATS as road favorites since coach John Harbaugh took over in 2008, and 29-20-3 ATS in conference games over that span.

BIGGEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Detroit at Oakland (-1, 47.5), Carolina at Houston (-6.5, 46.5), New England at Denver (6, 46), Dallas at Tampa Bay (6.5, 46)

The Bucs have given up 34.8 points per game over their last five, and have an 8-5 O/U mark.

Cam Newton’s talent, combined with his turnovers, has helped Carolina post an 8-5 0/U mark too.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Seattle at Chicago (-4, 36), Cleveland at Arizona (-6.5, 37.5)

The Bears are averaging 11 points in Caleb Hanie’s three starts. However, under coach Pete Carroll, the Seahawks have posted a 9-5 O/U mark as road dogs.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25919 Followers:33
12/17/2011 09:37 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 15

Jacksonville at Atlanta
The Falcons look to take advantage of a Jacksonville team that is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record. Atlanta is the pick (-11) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 12 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-11).. Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 15

Game 301-302: Jacksonville at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 126.002; Atlanta 139.356
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 13 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 11; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-11); Under


SUNDAY, DECEMBER 17

Game 303-304: Dallas at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 130.198; Tampa Bay 121.122
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 9; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6 1/2); Over

Game 305-306: Washington at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 125.318; NY Giants 133.451
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 8; 48
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 7; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-7); Over

Game 307-308: Green Bay at Kansas City (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 143.187; Kansas City 127.773
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 15 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 13 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-13 1/2); Under

Game 309-310: New Orleans at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 139.647; Minnesota 128.248
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 11 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 50
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-7); Under

Game 311-312: Seattle at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 126.644; Chicago 134.045
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 35
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Over

Game 313-314: Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 131.407; Buffalo 124.573
Dunkel Line: Miami by 7; 43
Vegas Line: Miami by 1 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1 1/2); N/A

Game 315-316: Carolina at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 128.517; Houston 141.957
Dunkel Line: Houston by 13 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 6; 46
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-6); Under

Game 317-318: Tennessee at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 131.875; Indianapolis 123.907
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 8; 37
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-6 1/2); Under

Game 319-320: Cincinnati at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 128.082; St. Louis 124.581
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+6 1/2); Over

Game 321-322: Detroit at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 131.491; Oakland 128.908
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1); Over

Game 323-324: New England at Denver (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 138.842; Denver 134.969
Dunkel Line: New England by 4; 43
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 46
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+7); Under

Game 325-326: NY Jets at Philadelphia (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.794; Philadelphia 135.425
Dunkel Line: Even; 47
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3); Over

Game 327-328: Cleveland at Arizona (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.245 Arizona 134.093
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 8; 34
Vegas Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-6 1/2); Under

Game 329-330: Baltimore at San Diego (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 137.469; San Diego 139.420
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 46
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2 1/2); Over


MONDAY, DECEMBER 19

Game 331-332: Pittsburgh at San Francisco (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 138.647; San Francisco 137.795
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 34
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 2 1/2; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+2 1/2); N/A

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25919 Followers:33
12/17/2011 09:39 AM

Saturday, December 17

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DALLAS (7 - 6) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 9) - 12/17/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
DALLAS is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
DALLAS is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DALLAS is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DALLAS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC South division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 18

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WASHINGTON (4 - 9) at NY GIANTS (7 - 6) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 47-28 ATS (+16.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (13 - 0) at KANSAS CITY (5 - 8) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 50-30 ATS (+17.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (10 - 3) at MINNESOTA (2 - 11) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in dome games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (6 - 7) at CHICAGO (7 - 6) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-42 ATS (-26.2 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 2-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 2-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (4 - 9) at BUFFALO (5 - 8) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (4 - 9) at HOUSTON (10 - 3) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
CAROLINA is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (7 - 6) at INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 13) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TENNESSEE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (7 - 6) at ST LOUIS (2 - 11) - 12/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 93-123 ATS (-42.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
ST LOUIS is 41-66 ATS (-31.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
ST LOUIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (8 - 5) at OAKLAND (7 - 6) - 12/18/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 33-63 ATS (-36.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
OAKLAND is 22-43 ATS (-25.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 23-46 ATS (-27.6 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (10 - 3) at DENVER (8 - 5) - 12/18/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 61-38 ATS (+19.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 142-107 ATS (+24.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (8 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 8) - 12/18/2011, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (4 - 9) at ARIZONA (6 - 7) - 12/18/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (10 - 3) at SAN DIEGO (6 - 7) - 12/18/2011, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 19

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PITTSBURGH (10 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (10 - 3) - 12/19/2011, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25919 Followers:33
12/17/2011 09:41 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 15


Saturday, 12/17/2011

DALLAS at TAMPA BAY, 8:20 PM ET
DALLAS: 3-15 ATS as favorite
TAMPA BAY: 14-3 ATS off SU loss as road favorite


Sunday, 12/18/2011

WASHINGTON at NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON: 33-15 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
NY GIANTS: 6-0 Over off road win

GREEN BAY at KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM ET
GREEN BAY: 6-0 ATS vs. "bad team" (win pct of .250 to .400)
KANSAS CITY: 9-0 Under after being outrushed by 75+ yards

NEW ORLEANS at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 7-1 ATS in dome games
MINNESOTA: 5-1 Over at home vs. New Orleans

SEATTLE at CHICAGO, 1:00 PM ET
SEATTLE: 5-15 ATS as road underdog
CHICAGO: 6-0 Under off loss by 6 pts or less

MIAMI at BUFFALO, 1:00 PM ET
MIAMI: 10-0 Under playing with 6 days or less rest
BUFFALO: 9-1 Under in December

CAROLINA at HOUSTON, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 1-9 ATS as road underdog of 7 pts or less
HOUSTON: 6-0 Under in home games

TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM ET
TENNESSEE: 10-2 Under at Indianapolis
INDIANAPOLIS: 0-6 ATS off double digit loss

CINCINNATI at ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 6-1 Over on turf
ST LOUIS: 1-6 ATS in dome games

DETROIT at OAKLAND, 4:05 PM ET
DETROIT: 4-14 ATS as road favorite
OAKLAND: 6-0 Over off non-conf game

NEW ENGLAND at DENVER, 4:15 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 22-8 Over in all games
DENVER: 9-2 Over off an Under

NY JETS at PHILADELPHIA, 4:15 PM ET
NY JETS: 14-3 Over in road games
PHILADELPHIA: 1-5 ATS in home games

CLEVELAND at ARIZONA, 4:15 PM ET
CLEVELAND: 6-0 ATS Away off division game
ARIZONA: 4-14 ATS at home off BB wins

BALTIMORE at SAN DIEGO, 8:20 PM ET NBC
BALTIMORE: 6-0 ATS Away off ATS loss
SAN DIEGO: 9-2 Under at home vs. AFC


Monday, 12/19/2011

PITTSBURGH at SAN FRANCISCO, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
PITTSBURGH: 5-1 ATS off ATS loss
SAN FRANCISCO: 24-9 ATS on Monday Night Football

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25919 Followers:33
12/17/2011 09:42 AM

NFL

Week 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, December 17

8:20 PM
DALLAS vs. TAMPA BAY
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Dallas
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Dallas


Sunday, December 18

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. MINNESOTA
New Orleans is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Minnesota is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. HOUSTON
Carolina is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
St. Louis is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BUFFALO
Miami is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Buffalo
Miami is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 11 games when playing Miami

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. KANSAS CITY
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Green Bay's last 18 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY GIANTS
Washington is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Washington is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games

4:05 PM
DETROIT vs. OAKLAND
Detroit is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Detroit

4:15 PM
NY JETS vs. PHILADELPHIA
NY Jets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road
NY Jets are 15-8 SU in their last 23 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing NY Jets

4:15 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against New England
Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

4:15 PM
CLEVELAND vs. ARIZONA
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 6-13-2 ATS in its last 21 games
Arizona is 8-16 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games

8:20 PM
BALTIMORE vs. SAN DIEGO
Baltimore is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
San Diego is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
San Diego is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games


Monday, December 19

8:30 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25919 Followers:33
12/17/2011 09:44 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

week 15

Cowboys (7-6) @ Buccaneers (4-9)—9 of 13 Cowboy games this year were decided by 4 or less points or in OT, including last four, with Pokes losing last two weeks in agonizing fashion; now they visit freefalling Bucs squad that lost last seven games (1-6 vs spread), giving up 41 unanswered points to bad Jaguar team last week. Dallas won 11 of 14 series games, winning last three by combined score of 85-40; Bucs scored 16 or less points in four of last five series games. Cowboys are 2-4 on road, with both wins coming in OT (@ 49ers/ Redskins); they’re 2-7-1 as a favorite this year, 0-2-1 on road. Bucs are 2-6 as a dog, 1-1 at home. Pokes split last four visits here, winning 34-21 in last visit here, in ’09 opener. NFC East favorites are 6-13-1 vs spread in non-divisional games, 3-4-1 on road; NFC South underdogs are 6-8, 2-2 at home. Four of Bucs’ last five home games stayed under total.

Redskins (4-9) @ Giants (7-6)—Washington lost eight of its last nine games; they’re 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 2-13-23-11 points, with wins at St Louis/Seattle; Skins (+3) upset Giants 28-14 in season opener, getting pick-6 in 3rd quarter that turned tide in even game, ending Giants’ 6-game series win streak. Big Blue was 1-10 on 3rd down in that game. Redskins lost six of last seven visits here, losing last three by 9-6-24 points; they scored 14 or less points in five of last seven series games. Giants are 1-3-1 as home favorite, 3-3 SU, losing last two at home to Eagles/Packers- their comeback win in Dallas last week ended 4-game skid, put them atop weak NFC East, where underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in divisional games this season (under 5-3). Last four Washington games, four of last five Giant games went over the total.

Packers (13-0) @ Chiefs (5-8)—Firing coaches in midseason rarely helps, just creates more work for remaining job-hunting assistants with holidays around corner, so Haley’s departure makes beating unbeaten Pack even dicier proposition. Last true road game of season for Green Bay team that is 4-3 as road favorite, winning away games by 7-10-11-6-7-12-3 points (five of seven foes are playoff contenders). In their last six games, Chiefs have three offensive TDs on 66 drives, with one TD scored on Hail Mary; they’ve scored total of 22 points in last three games at Arrowhead, where they’re 2-4 this year, but 3-0 as underdog, with home losses by 34-28-7-4 points, and wins over Vikings/ Chargers. Over is 6-1 in last seven Packer games, 2-9 in Chiefs’ last 11 contests. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 22-22-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Saints (10-3) @ Vikings (2-11)—Red-hot New Orleans won/covered last five games, are tied for #2 slot in NFC that comes with cherished first round bye, but 49ers own tiebreak, so pressure on Who-Dats to keep winning here. Saints lost last five visits here, with last visit in ’05- their last win in this building was in ’93; NO is 4-3 on road, 2-3 as road favorites, winning away games by 13-3-3-5 points, with losses to Pack/Rams/Bucs. Minnesota lost last five games (1-3-1 vs spread) but got spark from mobile QB Webb last week (had 65-yard TD run) in controversial loss at Detroit. Five of Vikings’ last seven games were decided by six or less points- Minnesota is 5-3-1 as a dog this year, 2-1 at home. NFC North underdogs are 6-4, 1-1 at home. NFC south favorites are 11-9-2, 4-5 on foreign soil. Over is 6-2 in Minnesota’s last eight games, 1-4 in Saints’ last five.

Seahawks (6-7) @ Bears (7-6)—Chicago 0-3 with Hanie at QB after being Tebow-ed in Denver last week, blowing 10-0 lead with 3:15 left; in last two games, Chicago has one offensive TD on 27 drives, with 16 3/outs, going 2-26 on 3rd down. Bears are 4-2 as favorite this year, 3-2 at home. Seattle travels east on short work week after lethargic MNF win; Seahawks won four of last five games, covered five of last six; they’re 7-2-1 in last ten games as an underdog, 3-2-1 as road dog, losing away games by 16-24-3-10, with wins at Giants/Rams. Home side won five of last seven series games, with Seattle losing 35-24 in playoffs here last January, after Hawks had upset Chicago here during season. NFC North favorites are 12-10 vs spread, 8-7 at home. NFC West road dogs are 9-7-1 vs spread. Seahawks’ last three games all went over the total.

Dolphins (4-9) @ Bills (5-8)—Impossible to endorse visitors from South Beach in potentially frigid western NY after they canned Sparano Monday, after Fish had covered six of seven games, winning four of last six SU; Dolphins are 1-5 on road, 4-2 as road underdogs, with three losses by 3 or less points. Miami (-2) hammered Bills 35-8 at home four weeks ago, blocking punt for TD, also scoring on TD drives of 23-4 yards. Series has been swept in nine of last 12 years; Fish lost five of last six visits here, but also beat Bills in Toronto during that time. Free-falling Buffalo lost last six games (1-5 vs spread); after running ball for 138+ yards in five of first seven games, Bills averaged just 80 rushing yards over last four weeks and converted just 17 of last 54 on 3rd down. Bills are 3-2 at home, but their last home win was October 9. Under is 10-1-1 in last dozen Miami games.

Panthers (4-9) @ Texans (10-3)—Not sure how first-time division champ Texans will react to prosperity after being patted on back all week by locals; they had celebration at stadium when team returned home from Cincy last Sunday. One motivating factor to keep playing is first-round bye that they’re currently tied for. Houston won/covered last seven games- they’re 4-1 as home favorites, winning at Reliant by 27-7-10-18-7 points, with only loss to Raiders. Carolina is 4-0 when it allows 20 or less points, 0-9 when it allows more; they’re 2-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 7-5-14-14 points. Panthers haven’t beaten team with winning record this season. Texans won only two series games, 14-10/34-21, with last meeting in ’07. AFC South home favorites are 3-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC South road underdogs are 4-6. Last four Panther games went over.

Titans (7-6) @ Colts (0-13)—Rookie Locker likely to get first NFL start here for Titans, vs awful Indy squad that is 1-5 vs spread at home, losing by 8-3-4-24-14-8 points at Lucas Oil Field; Colts got backdoor covers as double digit road dogs last two weeks, after being 0-7 vs spread in previous seven games. Titans (-9) beat Indy 27-10 at home in Week 8, blocking punt for TD in game where Colts outrushed them 158-96 and outgained them by 78 yards for game, but scored only 10 points on four trips to Titan red zone. Tennessee is 2-3 as favorite this year, all at home; they’re 3-3 at home, winning by 18-27-6 points. Home underdogs are 10-10 vs spread in divisional games, 2-6 in AFC, 0-2 in AFC South. Last seven Tennessee games stayed under the total. Colts allowed 141+ rushing yards in four of last five games, good news for Chris Johnson’s fantasy owners.

Jets (8-5) @ Eagles (5-8)—Philly is 8-0 all-time vs Jets, with five of last seven wins by 7+ points, but this is just second visit here since ’78 by Gang Green (0-4 in Philly, losing by average of 23-12), which won last three games overall, and is in thick of playoff race, while Iggles need lot of help to get in. Jets are 7-0 when they score more than 24 points, 0-4 when they score less, 1-1 when they get exactly 24; Eagles allowed 13 or less points in all five wins, 21+ in all eight losses. Philly is 0-4 vs spread the week following a win this season; they had consecutive wins, but had Week 7 bye in between; Eagles are ghastly 1-5 at home this year, crushing Dallas in Week 8; they’re 3-7 vs spread when favored. NFC East home favorites are 3-9 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road underdogs are 6-4. Four of Jets’ last five games went over total.

Bengals (7-6) @ Rams (2-11)—Cincy’s playoff hopes took jolt with last-second loss to Texans last week, their 4th loss in last five games, now they can take frustrations out on awful St Louis squad that is on short work week after dismal 30-13 loss Monday night. Five of Cincinnati’s seven wins are by 7+ points- they’re 2-3 as favorites, 4-3 SU on road, with wins by 10-10-22-7 points, losing to Broncos-Steelers-Ravens. Rams haven’t covered any of their 11 losses, losing at home by 18-30-7-17-3 points, but they did somehow upset the Saints at home. In six games since beating Saints, Rams have four offensive TDs on 72 drives, with 11 turnovers/28 3-outs. Rams won three of last four series games; Bengals are 0-2 in this dome, with last visit in ’03. Over is 3-0-1 in Bengals’ last four games. Remember, bad teams don’t have much home field advantage.

Lions (8-5) @ Raiders (7-6)—Suh expected back for Detroit in battle of heavily-penalized, contending teams hungry for wins; Lions were +6 in turnovers last week and still almost lost at home to Vikings, which would’ve been unheard of. Detroit is 4-2 on road; they’re only team to beat Tebow, winning 45-10 at Denver in Week 8. Raiders got smoked 34-14/46-16 on road last two weeks, getting outscored 44-0 in first half; they’re 3-3 at home, 1-1 with Palmer at QB, beating Cutler-less Bears last home game. In last three games, Lions have 265 penalty yards, their opponents 121. Lions lost three of four visits here, winning last one 36-21 in ’07. Oakland is 6-1 with 2+ takeaways, 1-5 with less; Lions turned ball over 2+ times in only three of 13 games. Detroit won last two series games by 10-15 points, after losing six of first eight meetings. Three of last four Oakland games went over the total.

Patriots (10-3) @ Broncos (8-5)—Tebow is 7-1 as starter, winning last four games by 4 or less points in inexplicable fashion reminiscent of George Blanda in ’71. New England is 10-3 despite allowing 20+ points in nine games; they’re susceptible to passing attacks, which means they’re safe here for first three quarters. Patriots won last five games, getting backdoored by Orlovsky/ Grossman last two weeks; they’re 5-7 as a favorite, 3-3 on road, winning away games by 14-12-21-18-7, losing at Bills/Steelers. Last time teams met was in ‘09, Denver won in OT, Josh McDaniels strutted around Invesco like Hulk Hogan and Tebow was still in Gainesville; that was Denver’s fourth win in last five series games. Pats lost last three visits here by 8-14-3 points- their last win here was in ’03. AFC East non-divisional road favorites are 3-5 vs spread; AFC West home underdogs are 4-3.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: