cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
On 12/11/2011 09:36 AM in NFL

Cnotes Sunday's NFL Best Bets !

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/08/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
12/05/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
12/04/11 15-­13-­0 53.57% +­350 Detail
12/01/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
Totals 16-­18-­0 47.06% -­1900

Sunday, December 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +3 500
Jacksonville - Under 41 500

New England - 1:00 PM ET New England -9 500 ( BLOW OUT )
Washington - Over 47.5 500

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati -3 500 ( Bengals Maul Texans )
Cincinnati - Over 38.5 500

Kansas City - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +10.5 500 ( DOG OF THE DAY )
N.Y. Jets - Under 36.5 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +9.5 500
Detroit - Over 46.5 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee +3.5 500
Tennessee - Under 50 500

Philadelphia - 1:00 PM ET Miami -3 500
Miami - Under 45.5 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis +16.5 500
Baltimore - Over 41.5 500

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +1.5 500
Carolina - Under 47 500

Chicago - 4:05 PM ET Chicago +3.5 500
Denver - Under 35.5 500

San Francisco - 4:05 PM ET San Francisco -3.5 500
Arizona - Over 39.5 500

Oakland - 4:15 PM ET Oakland +11.5 500
Green Bay - Under 51.5 500

Buffalo - 4:15 PM ET San Diego -7 500
San Diego - Under 48 500

N.Y. Giants - 8:20 PM ET N.Y. Giants +4.5 500
Dallas - Over 50.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
12/11/2011 10:18 AM

Sunday’s betting tips: Falcons all over the under

Who’s hot

NFL: The Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last six overall and the under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 overall.

NFL: The 49ers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 overall and the under is 6-1 in their last seven overall.

NFL: The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and the under is 7-0 in their last seven overall.

NHL: The Rangers are 12-4 in their last 16 overall and the over is 4-1 in their last five overall.

NCAAB: California is 4-0 in its last four home games and the under is 7-1 in its last eight overall.

Who’s not

NFL: The Falcons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four overall and the over is 0-8 in their last eight overall.

NFL: The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five against the AFC.

NFL: The Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four overall and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine against the NFC North.

NHL: The over is 1-6 in the Sharks’ last seven against the Western Conference and 1-4 in their last five road games.

NCAAB: Detroit is 3-12-3 ATS in its last 18 road games.

Key stat

13 – Number of rushing touchdowns scored by Panthers’ rookie Cam Newton, a single-season record for a quarterback (previously held by Steve Grogan with 12). Newton has rushed 100 times for 518 yards and has passed for 3,297 yards with 13 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Carolina hosts the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. In Week 6 at Atlanta (a 31-17 loss), Newton rushed for one score but threw three picks and was held to a season-low 44.6 passer rating.

Injuries that shouldn’t be overlooked

The Eagles are playing only for pride now, but they may be playing without wide receiver Jeremy Maclin on Sunday at Miami. Maclin (hamstring) was downgraded to questionable on Saturday. He is traveling with the team but nobody can count on him suiting up.

In another Saturday development, St. Louis QB Sam Bradford (ankle) practiced for the first time this week. However, he participated merely on a limited basis and he is still listed as questionable for Monday night's NFC West contest against Seattle.

Biggest game on the slate

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48.5)

Notable quotable

“The fact that he was in a fender-bender? How guys drive and things like that.… Let's worry about him on the field. Ndamukong is a hard-working guy and he hasn't had any kind of issues with the law, including this one. Let's worry about him on the field and get him back playing well. He's under a microscope, but that's too much of a microscope.” – Detroit Lions’ head coach Jim Schwartz on Suh’s recent car crash. Suh will miss Sunday’s home game against Minnesota, the second in his two-game suspension for stomping on Packers’ lineman Evan Dietrich-Smith.

Tips and notes

The Colts obviously haven’t won any games and they are hardly covering any spreads, either. They are 3-9 ATS this season and 1-7 ATS in their last eight overall. But something will have to give on Sunday at Baltimore. The Colts, who are getting a whopping 16.5 points, are 7-0 ATS their last seven against the Ravens and 4-0 ATS in their last four in Baltimore. Obviously this is a much different Indy team, but will 16.5 be enough to keep the streak going?

UNC-Greensboro is not off to a good start and it won’t get any easier on Sunday at Florida State. The Spartans are 2-7 (2-5 ATS) and 0-6 (1-4 ATS) on the road. In two games against major-conference competition they lost 92-63 at Tennessee and 86-45 at Georgetown. Keep an eye on the health of FSU forward Terrance Shannon, though. Shannon (8.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg) is questionable with a shoulder injury.

Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and Patrick Sharp are the top three point-scorers for the Blackhawks and those three have been especially on fire of late. Toews went point-less on Thursday but he still has seven goals and 13 points in his last seven games. Kane has seven assists and eight points in his last five. Sharp has eight goals and 11 points in his last seven. The Sharks will have to brace themselves for another Chicago onslaught.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
12/11/2011 10:19 AM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in Hilton handicapping contest, which has 517 contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........Steelers (20), Browns (21) played on Thursday, so we'll leave them out of this......

T5) Seattle Seahawks 109
T5) Houston Texans 109
4) Tennessee Titans 136
3) San Francisco 49ers 138
2) Atlanta Falcons 144
1) New Jersey Giants 164

T25) Jacksonville Jaguars 40
T25) Buffalo Bills 40
27) Carolina Panthers 39
28) Baltimore Ravens 25
T29) Minnesota Vikings 22
T29) St Louis Rams


****************


Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Some bowl knowledge for you to peruse.......

13) Earlier this week I said I’d look this up; over the last five years, double digit faves are 7-10 vs spread in bowl games, with five dogs winning SU.

12) I had to check this twice, but its true; over the last five years, teams from the Big Dozen Conference (Ohio State/Michigan/Penn State etc…) have been the underdog in 30 of their 37 bowl games; they’re 3-4 when the favorite, 17-13 as the dog (9-4 last two years).

11) Over last three years, SEC teams are 6-0 in bowls against Big X Conference (Texas/Oklahoma, etc) teams; last Big X win was Missouri’s 38-7 win over Arkansas in 2007, and starting next year, Mizzou will be an SEC team, too.

10) Underdogs are 29-13 vs spread in ACC’s last 42 bowls, with ACC clubs 7-15 as a favorite, 14-6 as an underdog.

9) Surprisingly, Big East teams are 20-8 in bowl games the last five years, but they’re also 9-0 vs C-USA/MAC teams, so they’ve been cleaning up in second-tier bowls. Still, 11-8 against everyone else is pretty good.

8) Over the last five years, Big X teams are a terrible 13-26 vs spread in bowls, 9-16 when favored, 4-9 when getting points. Something to think about when Baylor-Texas-Oklahoma schools take the field.

7) Somehow, Conference USA gets six bowl bids a year, probably because their schools are all in the South, near where the bowl games are. Anyway, C-USA teams are 11-19 in their last 30 bowls, 1-14 vs SEC/Big Dozen/Big East schools, 5-0 vs MAC teams, which tells you a lot about the MAC.

6) MAC teams lost 17 of their last 21 bowls; over last three years, they’re 2-11-1 vs spread in bowls. Guess all that weeknight TV exposure they had in October/November didn’t help.

5) MAC teams are 5-15-1 vs spread in those 21 bowls, 3-11 as the dog.

4) In last five years, there hasn’t been a bowl between a Big East/Big Dozen team; is there a reason for this or just a coincidence?

3) Mountain West teams won 14 of their last 19 bowls, covering eight of last 12 as a bowl underdog.

2) Over last five years, SEC teams are 18-11 vs spread when laying points in bowls.

1) Underdogs are 13-7 vs spread in WAC’s last 20 bowls, with WAC favorites covering two of last nine tries. Dogs dominated WAC’s league schedule the entire season this fall, so that makes some sense.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
12/11/2011 10:20 AM

NFL odds: Week 14 opening line report

Philadelphia, the preseason Super Bowl co-favorite, can’t get its top receiver to run hard or go over the middle.

Washington coach Mike Shanahan, supposedly an offensive guru, staked his reputation on Rex Grossman and John Beck.

The Giants have lost four straight, part of an annual second-half collapse, and are reduced to claiming moral victories.

Dallas coach Jason Garrett intentionally took the ball out of his offense’s hands with the game on the line Sunday at Arizona, choosing not to run another play from the Cardinals’ 31-yard line.

He then unintentionally iced his own kicker by calling time. Dan Bailey nailed the 49-yard field goal that didn’t count, and missed the one that did.

Does anyone want to win the NFC Least?

It sounds far-fetched, but at one point many thought this division would send three teams to the playoffs.

NFC East teams have either underperformed or just aren’t very good. None has a winning record ATS.

And they haven’t feasted on the purportedly weaker NFC West. Excluding St. Louis, NFC West teams are 7-5 SU and 9-2-1 ATS against the NFC East. The West is still 7-9 SU and 9-6-1 ATS if you include the hapless Rams.

“The Eagles have been a total flop,” MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told ***********. “The Giants? You figure ‘em out. Even though they lost Sunday, they put up the best fight versus Green Bay as anyone has all season.

“Dallas was just getting by even when they were winning,” he added. “To me, it didn’t look like they had it all together. It all makes for a fun game Sunday night.”

That’s when Dallas (7-5) hosts New York (6-6) with the division lead at stake. Books opened the Cowboys as 3 or 3.5-point favorites.

Todd Fuhrman, Caesars Palace senior race and sports analyst, said he opened the game at 3.5 “to see if we can take a little Giants money.

“I think the public will come in on Dallas,” he continued. “The Giants could come in a little bit flat and this is a good situational spot to back Dallas. I’m curious to see if the sharper bettors will lay the hook.”

The Giants will struggle to shake off the disappointment of narrowly missing a landmark win, Fuhrman said, adding that he views Dallas as the division’s only playoff team.

Despite their mediocrity, the Giants and Cowboys will draw more money than any other Week 14 game. Action is likely to be split fairly evenly.

“You’ve got two teams with such fervent fan bases,” Fuhrman said. “It’s one of those marquee games we look forward to.”

BIGGEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-16.5, 41), Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-13.5, 38.5)

The Colts were surprisingly competitive at New England, covering easily as 20.5-point underdogs. But they lost top corner Jerraud Powers to a dislocated elbow.

Incidentally, Fuhrman said he didn’t post a prop on Indy going 0-16 because he didn’t think anyone would bet “No.”

The Browns are 4-8 ATS as road dogs since the start of last season.

SMALLEST SPREADS OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville (-1.5, 38), Atlanta at Carolina (3, 48), Houston at Cincinnati (-3, 37.5), Philadelphia at Miami (-3, 44)

Michael Vick says he’ll play against the Dolphins, though he won’t be 100 percent. The Eagles sure can use the spark.

But no team has been hotter ATS than the Dolphins. Miami has covered six straight by an average of 14 points, going 4-2 SU.

BIGGEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Oakland at Green Bay (-11, 53)

The Packers are averaging 35 points, and eight of their 12 games have gone over the total. At home, Green Bay has posted a 4-1 O/U mark. The over is 7-5 in Oakland’s games, including 4-2 when the Raiders go on the road.

Carson Palmer (9 INTs in 6 games) remains susceptible to turnovers, another factor that could jack up the score.

SMALLEST TOTALS OF THE WEEK

Chicago at Denver (-3.5, 35.5), Kansas City at N.Y. Jets (-9, 36.5), Houston at Cincinnati (-3, 37.5)

The Bears offense is a mess without Jay Cutler and Matt Forte. This total already dropped a point. Denver has played four unders in Tim Tebow’s seven starts.

The over is 9-3 in Bengals’ games this season, including 4-1 at Paul Brown Stadium.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
12/11/2011 10:21 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 14

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Thursday, December 8

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CLEVELAND (4 - 8) at PITTSBURGH (9 - 3) - 12/8/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
PITTSBURGH is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 11

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INDIANAPOLIS (0 - 12) at BALTIMORE (9 - 3) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (9 - 3) at CINCINNATI (7 - 5) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 49-72 ATS (-30.2 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (7 - 5) at GREEN BAY (12 - 0) - 12/11/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 23-45 ATS (-26.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (5 - 7) at NY JETS (7 - 5) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (2 - 10) at DETROIT (7 - 5) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 3-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (9 - 3) at TENNESSEE (7 - 5) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 38-16 ATS (+20.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (4 - 8) at MIAMI (4 - 8) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 40-60 ATS (-26.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (9 - 3) at WASHINGTON (4 - 8) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 94-67 ATS (+20.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 48-29 ATS (+16.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (7 - 5) at CAROLINA (4 - 8) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 43-23 ATS (+17.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 8) at JACKSONVILLE (3 - 9) - 12/11/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (10 - 2) at ARIZONA (5 - 7) - 12/11/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 5-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (7 - 5) at DENVER (7 - 5) - 12/11/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-27 ATS (-21.7 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
DENVER is 43-25 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
CHICAGO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
DENVER is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) against NFC North division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (5 - 7) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 7) - 12/11/2011, 4:15 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (6 - 6) at DALLAS (7 - 5) - 12/11/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 12

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ST LOUIS (2 - 10) at SEATTLE (5 - 7) - 12/12/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
ST LOUIS is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
ST LOUIS is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) against conference opponents this season.
ST LOUIS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 4-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 4-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
12/11/2011 10:22 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 14

Thursday, 12/8/2011

CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH, 8:20 PM ET NFL Network
CLEVELAND: 7-1 Under L8 Wks
PITTSBURGH: 10-22 ATS as double digit favorite


Sunday, 12/11/2011

INDIANAPOLIS at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
INDIANAPOLIS: 1-7 ATS L8 games
BALTIMORE: 10-2 ATS at home after gaining 400+ total yds

HOUSTON at CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM ET
HOUSTON: 2-10 ATS off SU dog win
CINCINNATI: 1-10 ATS as home favorite

OAKLAND at GREEN BAY, 4:15 PM ET
OAKLAND: 6-0 ATS Away off ATS loss
GREEN BAY: 6-0 ATS off 2 game road trip

KANSAS CITY at NY JETS, 1:00 PM ET
KANSAS CITY: 11-2 ATS off road game
NY JETS: 39-66 ATS at home off Away game

MINNESOTA at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
MINNESOTA: 13-28 ATS Away after gaining 400+ yds
DETROIT: 7-0 Over off road loss

NEW ORLEANS at TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS: 8-0 Over Away if total is 45.5 to 49
TENNESSEE: 38-16 ATS vs. NFC

PHILADELPHIA at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
PHILADELPHIA: 32-17 Under after allowing 30+ pts
MIAMI: 9-0 Under playing w/ 6 or less days rest

NEW ENGLAND at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
NEW ENGLAND: 9-0 Over after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game
WASHINGTON: 58-38 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

ATLANTA at CAROLINA, 1:00 PM ET
ATLANTA: 0-7 ATS after allowing 17 points or less in 3 straight games
CAROLINA: 19-4 Under off road division win

TAMPA BAY at JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 7-0 ATS after allowing 150+ rush yds BB games
JACKSONVILLE: 6-16 ATS off ATS loss

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA, 4:05 PM ET
SAN FRANCISCO: 10-1-1 ATS in all games
ARIZONA: 3-14 ATS at home off BB wins

CHICAGO at DENVER, 4:05 PM ET
CHICAGO: 8-27 ATS in December road games
DENVER: 17-1 Over at home after allowing 300+ pass yards

BUFFALO at SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM ET
BUFFALO: 11-1 ATS Away off 3+ losses
SAN DIEGO: 2-9 ATS if 50+ total pts scored last game

NY GIANTS at DALLAS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
NY GIANTS: 22-10 ATS Away after allowing 30+
DALLAS: 3-14 ATS as favorite


Monday, 12/12/2011

ST LOUIS at SEATTLE, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
ST LOUIS: 16-6 Under in road games
SEATTLE: 0-6 ATS off win by 14+

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
12/11/2011 10:23 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Browns (4-8) @ Steelers (9-3)—Pittsburgh won 14 of last 15 series games, with last four wins all by 13+ points; Browns are 0-7 here, with six of seven losses by 11+- they scored 14 or less points in last six series games. Steelers won seven of last eight games; they’re 5-1 at home, 3-2 as home favorites, winning at Heinz by 24-21-4-8-28 points, with only loss to Ravens. Browns lost five of last six games; they’re 1-3 as road underdogs, losing on foreign soil by 7-10-18-3 points, with only win at winless Indy. Teams are 8-2 vs spread (2-0 as favorites) week after playing the Bengals. Home teams are 2-5-21 vs spread in AFC North divisional games (over is 5-2-1 in those games). Under is 6-2 in Cleveland’s last eight games, 3-1-1 in Steelers’ last five. Browns are 0-7 when they allow 20+ points.

Chiefs (5-7) @ Jets (7-5)—KC put newly-acquired QB Orton in for start of 2nd quarter at Chicago last week; he dislocated index finger on passing hand the first play, so Palko was back under center- he completed 38-yard Hail Mary on last play of half, just Chiefs’ 2nd TD on last 54 drives, as KC snapped 4-game skid. Chiefs won three of last four away games; they’re 4-2 as road underdog, losing away games by 45-3-31 points. Jets are 7-1 when they score 24+ points, 0-4 when they don’t; they’re 3-3 as home favorites, winning in Swamp by 3-29-18-6-4 points, with loss to Patriots. AFC East non-divisional home favorites are 7-5-1 vs spread. Home side won four of last five Chief-Jet games, with three of last four decided by 4 or less points. Last seven KC games stayed under total; seven of Jets’ last ten went over.

Colts (0-12) @ Ravens (9-3)—Winless Colts are back in town they deserted 28 years ago; Indy won nine of last 11 series games and eight in row, but Manning was under center for those games, not Orlovsky, who was terrific in garbage time last week, but helped dig Colts 31-3 hole before that. Indy is 1-7 vs spread in last eight games; they’re 2-4 as road dogs, losing away games by 27-7-10-55-17-7 points. Last time Colts started drive on plus side of field was Week 3; over their last seven games, they’re -14 in turnovers. Ravens are 4-1-1 as home favorites, winning at home by 28-17-15-3-7-10 points. AFC South road underdogs are 4-6 vs spread in non-divisional games. Teams are 1-9 SU (1-2 as favorites) the week after playing Cleveland; underdogs are 2-2 the week after playing New England. Three of last four Raven games stayed under the total.

Texans (9-3) @ Bengals (7-5)—First NFL road start for rookie QB Yates, but Texans won/covered last six games, allowing only three TD’s on 47 drives in last four games. Houston is 4-2 on road, losing at Saints/Ravens; all four wins were by 10+ points. Bengals lost three of last four games, with all three L’s to Steelers/Ravens; Cincy is 3-2 at home, losing to Steelers/49ers- they’ve got only four takeaways in last five games (-4) after taking ball away 11 times in first eight games (+3). Home side won three of last four series games, with Houston winning last two meetings, 35-6/28-17. Teams are 8-3 SU (3-2 as dogs) week after playing Atlanta; teams are 3-7 SU (0-4 as favorites) week after playing Pittsburgh. Under is 7-2 in last nine Houston games; 2-5-1 in last eight Bengal tilts.

Raiders (7-5) @ Packers (12-0)—Green Bay playing for history now, only four wins away from 16-0 season; they’re 13-5 vs spread during this epic win streak, 4-1 as home favorites this year, winning at Lambeau by 8-26-21-38-9 points. Oakland is on road for 4th time in last five weeks; they’ve won three of last four games, are 3-1-1 as road dogs, losing by 20 at Miami, 3 at Buffalo on foreign soil (4-2 SU). Pack won last five series games, with four of the five wins by 13+ points; Raiders lost last three visits here, by 28-4-31 points, after winning first three visits. AFC West road underdogs are 5-7-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC North home favorites are 8-6. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread week after playing Miami; favorites are 2-2 week after playing the Giants. Four of last five Oakland games, five of last six Packer tilts went over total.

Vikings (2-10) @ Lions (7-5)—Frustration mounting for playoff-starved Detroit squad that’s been beating itself with immature play; Lions lost five of last seven games after 5-0 start, during which time they beat Vikings 26-23 in OT at Metrodome, after trailing 20-0 at half. Detroit scored 24+ points in all seven wins, 19 or less in every loss; they’re 3-2 as home favorites, winning at Ford Field by 45-11-14 points, but they’ve lost three of last four at home, Hapless Vikings lost last four games, giving up 32.8 ppg; they’re 2-2-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 7-5-29-38-10 points, with a win at Carolina. Lions have 22 penalties for 189 yards in last two games; is NFL sending them message for not disciplining their players themselves? Five of last seven Minnesota games went over the total. Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games.

Saints (9-3) @ Titans (7-5)—New Orleans is 6-0 at home, scoring 39.8 ppg, just 3-3 on road, allowing 26.5 ppg with losses to Rams/Bucs, two of worst teams in NFL; Saints are 2-2 on grass, outscoring foes 109-105. Tennessee won three of last four games, running ball for 389 yards last two weeks, as Johnson suddenly found his form- they were averaging 77.3 yards/game on ground up until then. Titans are 4-2 at home, losing to Texans/Bengals; they’re 5-1-1 vs spread as underdogs this year. Titans won last four series games, with three wins by 15+ points; last Saint series win was in 1993. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 9-11-1 vs spread, 3-4 at home; NFC South road favorites are also 3-4. Last six Tennessee games, three of last four Saint games stayed under. Saints won/covered last four games since awful loss in St Louis.

Eagles (4-8) @ Dolphins (4-8)—Two teams with same record going in opposite directions; Miami won four of last five games after 0-7 start, outscoring foes 89-31 in winning last three home games, allowing two garbage-time TD’s in last 33 home possessions- they’re 3-0 as a favorite this year. Eagles lost four of last five games, giving up 10.1/9.1 yards/pass attempt in last two games- they’re expected to get Vick back under center here, but they lost his last two starts, too. Philly has had edge in field position only four times this year, but they lost three of those four games- they played last Thursday- underdogs that lost the previous Thursday are 0-2 vs spread this year. Under is 3-1-1 in Miami’s last five home games. NFC East non-divsional underdogs are 5-8 vs spread, 4-5 on road. AFC East home favorites are 7-5-1.

Patriots (9-3) @ Redskins (4-8)—New England won last four games (3-1 vs spread), scoring 31+ points in all four games (15 TDs on last 41 drives); Patriots are +8 in turnovers (9-1) in those games- they’re 4-2 on road, with all four wins by 12+ points (losses at Bills/Steelers). Redskins lost seven of last eight games, dropping last four at home by 7-8-3-15 points. Skins led Jets with 5:00 left last week, but gave up three TDs in x:xx and lost 34-19. Washington won six of last eight series games but lost 52-7 at Foxboro in last meeting, vs 18-1 Pats, who lost only two visits here, 22-17 in ’03, 24-22 in ’81. Favorites are 1-4 vs spread week after playing the Colts; underdogs are likewise 1-4 week after playing the Jets. Last two weeks, AFC teams have won eight of ten against NFC opponents. Brady vs Grossman is severe QB mismatch.

Falcons (7-5) @ Panthers (4-8)—Atlanta won four of last five series games, beating Carolina 31-17 (-4) at home in Week 6, with +3 turnover ratio leading to +13 edge in field position; they’ve won last three series games by 21-21-14 points, are 7-4 here, but this series has also been split four of last five years. Falcons were held to 14 or less points in four of their five losses; barring a monsoon, Carolina ain’t holding them under 14. Carolina won last two games, scoring 27-38 points; they’re 2-4 at home, beating Jaguars/Redskins. Panthers are 3-2 as underdogs this year, but eight of their ten losses are by 5+ points. NFC home underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in divisional games. Home teams are 5-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Last eight Falcon games stayed under total; last three Carolina games went over.

Buccaneers (4-8) @ Jaguars (3-9)— Tampa Bay lost last six games (1-5 vs spread), Jaguars lost last three and are on short week with smaller coaching staff after last week’s firings; they gave up last 24 points of game in sloppy home loss to Chargers Monday night. Tampa Bay is 1-3 as a favorite this year, 1-5 away from home, with only win in Week 2 at Minnesota when they trailed 17-0 at half. Jags have three TD’s on last 31 drives, scoring 12.3 ppg in losses last three weeks by 4-7-24 points. Jaguars won three of four series games, with all four decided by 7 or less points; Bucs lost both visits here, 29-24/17-10. Bucs allowed 365 rushing yards last two weeks, good news for fantasy owners who have Jones-Drew. Usually bad teams don’t respond well after losing national TV game, but if Freeman is still out for Bucs, who knows?

49ers (10-2) @ Cardinals (5-7)—Niners clinched division last week, but real prize is first round bye, so they’ve got to keep going here, vs Arizona team they beat 23-7 (-9.5) at Candlestick three weeks ago. 49ers outgained Arizona 431-229, outrushed them 164-80, forced five turnovers (+4) and converted 8-21 3rd down plays in that game, but that was with Skelton, not Kolb under center for Cards. Redbirds won four of last five games, covered five of last six; they’re 3-2 at home, with 32-20 loss to Steelers only home loss by more than 4 points; they’re 1-2 as home dog this year. SF has started 26 drives in enemy territory, compared to six for opponents; they’re +18 in turnovers, Arizona is -8. 49ers won last five series games, with last four by average score of 28-7; Niners won last two visits to desert, 20-16/27-6.

Bears (7-5) @ Broncos (7-5)—Denver now 6-1 with Tebow starting at QB, winning last three weeks by 4-3-3 points; if game is close late, Broncos have supreme confidence in ability to pull game out. Can’t say same for Bears, who lost both of Hanie’s starts by 5-7 points; he’s thrown six INTs in two starts, converted only 6 of 25 3rd down plays and looks lost. Chicago had turned ball over only 12 times in Cutler’s 10 starts. Denver won/covered last five games; in four of their 12 games this year, the first Bronco TD was scored by defense/special teams. Bears won last two series meetings 19-10/37-34; four of last five series totals were 29 or less. Four of last five Chicago games went over total; three of Denver’s last four stayed under. Maybe return to Rocky Mountains will help Hanie (went to school at Colorado State) some here.

Bills (5-7) @ Chargers (5-7)—San Diego snapped 6-game skid Monday night on road vs anemic Jaguars, averaging 10.5 yards/pass attempt, getting them within two games of top spot in AFC West, but Chargers lost last three home games, by 7-7-3 points- their last home win was October 2. Bolts have severe injury issues on OL, playing on short week could be problem. San Diego is 3-5 as favorite this year, 1-4 at home. Buffalo lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread); they’re 2-2-1 as road dog, losing away games by 3-3-37-27-4, with Week 1 win at Arrowhead. Home side won seven of last eight series games; Bills lost last four trips here, by 33-2-3-38 points- their last win here was in ’81. AFC East road underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in non-divisional games. Underdogs are 0-6 vs spread this season the week after playing Tennessee.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
12/11/2011 10:24 AM

NFL

Week 14

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 8

8:20 PM
CLEVELAND vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cleveland's last 8 games
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 12 games when playing Cleveland


Sunday, December 11

1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. CINCINNATI
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 9 games
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Minnesota is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
Atlanta is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Carolina's last 18 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 17 of New England's last 23 games
New England is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. TENNESSEE
New Orleans is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. MIAMI
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 12 games on the road
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Miami is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. BALTIMORE
Indianapolis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing Indianapolis

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
NY Jets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home
NY Jets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games

4:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco

4:05 PM
CHICAGO vs. DENVER
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Chicago

4:15 PM
OAKLAND vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:15 PM
BUFFALO vs. SAN DIEGO
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo
San Diego is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

8:20 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DALLAS
NY Giants are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
Dallas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home


Monday, December 12

8:30 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SEATTLE
St. Louis is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
12/11/2011 10:25 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 14

Cleveland at Pittsburgh
The Browns look to take advantage of a Pittsburgh team that is coming off a 35-7 win over Cincinnati and is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games following a win of more than 14 points. Cleveland is the pick (+14) according to Dunkel, which has the Steelers favored by only 12. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+14). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 8

Game 101-102: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.829; Pittsburgh 138.625
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12; 41
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 14; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+14); Over


SUNDAY, DECEMBER 11

Game 105-106: Indianapolis at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 120.175; Baltimore 141.201
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 21; 36
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 16; 41
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-16); Under

Game 107-108: Houston at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 140.007; Cincinnati 134.869
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5; 42
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+3); Over

Game 109-110: Oakland at Green Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 129.088; Green Bay 143.007
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 49
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 11; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-11); Under

Game 111-112: Kansas City at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 123.060; NY Jets 135.460
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 12 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 9; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-9); Over

Game 113-114: Minnesota at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.179; Detroit 131.561
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: Detroit by 8; 48
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+8); Under

Game 115-116: New Orleans at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 135.913; Tennessee 134.324
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 4; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+4); Over

Game 117-118: Philadelphia at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 132.662; Miami 134.139
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Miami by 3; 45
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Under

Game 119-120: New England at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 140.147; Washington 128.318
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 8; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-8); Over

Game 121-122: Atlanta at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 135.025; Carolina 134.186
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 46
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+3); Under

Game 123-124: Tampa Bay at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 121.455; Jacksonville 122.669
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 38
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+1); Over

Game 125-126: San Francisco at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 137.076; Arizona 131.812
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 5 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-3 1/2); Under

Game 127-128: Chicago at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 131.045; Denver 133.090
Dunkel Line: Denver by 2; 33
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 35 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Under

Game 129-130: Buffalo at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 124.612; San Diego 136.381
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 12; 49
Vegas Line: San Diego by 6 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-6 1/2); Over

Game 131-132: NY Giants at Dallas (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 129.305; Dallas 131.471
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 2; 46
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3 1/2); Under


MONDAY, DECEMBER 12

Game 133-134: St. Louis at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 119.480; Seattle 134.089
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 14 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Seattle by 5; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-5); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:25726 Followers:33
12/11/2011 10:26 AM

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we chatted up Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NFL

Indianapolis at Baltimore: Open: -15 Move: -16.5

Last week the Colts opened as three-touchdown underdogs against New England and managed to cover just their third pointspread of the season with a late surge. That was likely at the forefront of everybody's mind early this week.

"Linemakers overreacted to the Colts backdoor against New England and started this number a little too short," Fuhrman says. "The opening price said the Ravens were +6 on a neutral against the Patriots which I'd argue isn't true at all and bettors agreed as they bet this game up immediately. I think we see years of Ravens frustration taken out on the Colts, making this one a lay it or don't play it scenario."


New England at Washington Open: +7 Move: +8.5

You just know Bill Belichick was drooling over the last few weeks of the regular season when it came out. After getting by the Colts last week, the Pats finish off with at Washington and at Denver before closing out at home against Miami and Buffalo.

"Patriots lines need to be inflated by at least 1.5 points each week as they finish out their schedule against league bottom feeders," Fuhrman says. "Even with the uptick over a TD I think Redskins money will be hard to come by all week long. Come game day, I'm already full aware that I'd be sporting a Rex Grossman jersey - if I owned one."

Buffalo at San Diego Open: -6.5 Move: -7

A show of hands of anybody who is actually surprised Philip Rivers and the Chargers finally showed up after their season is already heading down the drain? Easily the most frustrating team to handicap this season.

"Are the Chargers back after Monday Night or are the Bills that bad? I think it's a combination of both right now," Fuhrman says. "Every game from here on out will require postseason intensity from the Bolts, while the Bills have been in free fall during this recent losing skid and continue to struggle sustaining any defensive consistency."

Philadelphia at Miami Open: over/under 44 Move: 45.5

We'll never know if Philadelphia's season would have played out any different if Michael Vick didn't get hurt, but at least we'll get another look at this club with him taking the snaps. That in itself is drawing some action on this matchup.

"Vick factor in full force for this total move," Fuhrman says. "He may not move the pointspread much right now with all the other Eagles injuries but his erratic play can lead to points for both his team and opponents. Interesting to note that the 1.5-point move takes it across a key number when handicapping totals, so I expect some buyback later in the week.

NCAAF

Army vs. Navy Open: over/under 56.5 Move: 57.5

No significant movement yet on the annual Army-Navy game that goes Saturday afternoon. Keep a close eye on this one though. With no other college games on the board and the pointspread sitting at Navy -7, heavy action could move this game either way.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: