spooky Posts:4088 Followers:294
On 12/04/2011 12:20 PM in NCAA Football

SPOOKY EXPRESS BOWLING FOR DOLLARS SELECTION AND ANALYSIS THREAD

ITS THAT TIME!!!!!!
BOWLING FOR DOLLARS!


SPOOKY EXPRESS AND BOWL SEASON


Many of you know I started posting my bowl game selections over 10 years ago and that is how it all began at the forums.
Never have had a losing bowl season since 1977 and not about to start now. Record speaks for itself.
Have had some unbelievable outstanding seasons and a few average years but always have showed a profit.
This is the only time I truly crunch numbers and play more with the numbers than my head.

Will start posting some opinions in the next week.
I am just going to make 1 thread for the analysis, write ups, thoughts for each of the games that go along with the rankings and another thread for my game time updates, selections and wagers.

These will once again be MY PLAYS and my opinion.
I really dont care if you follow or not. Not looking to debate my selections.

The totals (Over/Unders) will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments effect the game.
I will post my power ratings, my dog plays and some money line plays if you care.

Happy Holidays and best of luck.
--------------------------------------------------------------
BOWL SELECTIONS, EXPLANATIONS AND SUGGESTIONS.


First off, as the odds change so can the selection. Obviously the Best bets will not change dramatically.
Also will play MONEY LINE Parlays with some teams that are favored to win but not cover by much.

You are not going to get a selection for every game, but using some consistency and going with what YOU believe in, will bring home the $$$.

Home of the Spooky Express
Stop by to sign up for BetDSI and Bookmaker
Click here to sign up for WAGERWEB


Click here for all your fantasy sport needs:
FANDUEL.COM
DRAFTKINGS.COM


Click here for all your Amazon products:
SHOPWITHSPOOKY.COM

  • Last 7 Days Record: 30-22-2
  • Last 30 Days Record: 97-85-3
  • All Time Record: 1817-1253-41
  • 05/31/2012 03:58 PM

    won a tournment last nite and didnt get paid they told me to contact u [email protected]

iggy Posts:37 Followers:1
12/04/2011 12:26 PM

Guys,

This is the best thread each year. In fact, its my TRIPLE CHOCOLATE OTHER POSTER THREAD

Pay attention to it.....

--Iggy

spooky Posts:4088 Followers:294
12/04/2011 12:27 PM

For those interested in POWER RATINGS.

The lower the number the stronger the ranking.

A huge THANK YOU to Bobalou for all her assistance in crunching the numbers this year.


TEAM / RANK

Alabama 106

Boise State 114

Wisconsin 133

LSU 147

Georgia 157

Stanford 159

Michigan 183

Arkansas State 184

Southern Miss 186

Michigan State 191

Florida State 192

TCU 204

BYU 212

Temple 217

Virginia Tech 218

South Carolina 228

Ohio 229

Houston 230

Oklahoma 232

Nevada 246

Notre Dame 247

Texas A&M 252

Oregon 252

Arkansas 252

Texas 257

California 266

Cincinnati 266

West Virginia 272

Toledo 277

Missouri 280

Nebraska 281

Clemson 290

Illinois 291

Vandebilt 293

Georgia Tech 294

Oklahoma State 294

Utah State 303

Rutgers 306

San Diego State 307

Florida 308

Florida International 309

Louisiana Tech 311

Ohio State 312

Tulsa 315

Mississippi State 317

Penn State 318

Virginia 319

North Carolina 320

Air Force 323

Northern Illinois 329

SMU 336

Northwestern 337

Pittsburg 341

Arizona State 344

Western Michigan 345

Baylor 352

Louisville 358

Iowa 358

NC State 369

Utah 373

Wyoming 380

Kansas State 382

Purdue 384

LA-Lafayette 388

Wake Forest 405

Washington 423

Iowa State 449

Auburn 449

UCLA 456

Marshall 509

Home of the Spooky Express
Stop by to sign up for BetDSI and Bookmaker
Click here to sign up for WAGERWEB


Click here for all your fantasy sport needs:
FANDUEL.COM
DRAFTKINGS.COM


Click here for all your Amazon products:
SHOPWITHSPOOKY.COM

  • Last 7 Days Record: 30-22-2
  • Last 30 Days Record: 97-85-3
  • All Time Record: 1817-1253-41
bobalou Posts:4909 Followers:142
12/04/2011 01:12 PM

Can't Wait - Love this thread and have watched the picks all 10 years !



Click here to Stop by The Home of The Spooky Express

Click here to sign up at BetDSI; Bookmaker and/or WAGERWEB



At my age Rolling out of Bed in the morning is easy!
Getting back up off the floor is a different story!


spooky Posts:4088 Followers:294
12/08/2011 04:32 PM

BOWL SELECTIONS

IN ORDER OF TEAMS SELECTED TO WIN BY THE MOST POINTS.

(POINTSPREADS ARE NOT INVOLVED)

THIS IS USED TO DETERMINE MONEY LINE PLAYS, CONTESTS AND PLAYS NOT INVOLVING POINTSPREADS.


TEAM / Power Difference / Team They are Playing

Boise State 23.0 Arizona State

Florida International 20.0 Marshall

Illinois 16.5 UCLA

Temple 16.3 Wyoming

Rutgers 14.3 Iowa State

Arkansas State 14.2 Northern Illinois

Stanford 13.5 Oklahoma State

Virginia 13.0 Auburn

Arkansas 13.0 Kansas State

Oklahoma 12.6 Iowa

Wisconsin 11.9 Oregon

TCU 10.7 Louisiana Tech

BYU 10.3 Tulsa

Mississippi State 8.8 Wake Forest

Houston 8.8 Penn State

Texas A&M 8.5 Northwestern

San Diego State 8.1 LA-Lafayette

Georgia Tech 7.9 Utah

Ohio 7.4 Utah State

Baylor 7.1 Washington

Southern Miss 6.0 Nevada

Florida State 5.5 Notre Dame

South Carolina 5.3 Nebraska

Toledo 4.6 Air Force

Alabama 4.1 LSU

Missouri 4.0 North Carolina

Western Michigan 3.9 Purdue

Michigan 3.5 Virginia Tech

Georgia 3.4 Michigan State

Cincinnati 2.7 Vandebilt

West Virginia 1.8 Clemson

Louisville 1.1 NC State

Texas 0.9 California

SMU 0.5 Pittsburgh

Ohio State 0.4 Florida

Home of the Spooky Express
Stop by to sign up for BetDSI and Bookmaker
Click here to sign up for WAGERWEB


Click here for all your fantasy sport needs:
FANDUEL.COM
DRAFTKINGS.COM


Click here for all your Amazon products:
SHOPWITHSPOOKY.COM

  • Last 7 Days Record: 30-22-2
  • Last 30 Days Record: 97-85-3
  • All Time Record: 1817-1253-41
spooky Posts:4088 Followers:294
12/08/2011 04:34 PM

I will post the early recap for some of you that have not followed in years past or like their annual reminder.
As the odds change so can the selection.

Obviously the Best bets will not change dramatically.

There will be in the coming weeks more analysis and capping for each game along with some totals (Over/Unders) which will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments effect the game.
At the beginning is where I jump on some early lines which stand out and get the best value for the wager. I may completely reverse my thinking as time goes by, but for now I let the numbers do the talking and everyone that has seen or followed Spooky this millennium can corroborate how solid they usually are.

ANYTIME A TEAM IS PICKED TO WIN OUTRIGHT AND ALSO COVER WITH THE POINTS MAKES THEM A PLAY. NO LOOKING BACK, NO THINKING ABOUT IT.

In another week if not sooner I will have some plays that absolutely stand out and will post them early.

There will also be some live underdogs. So be ready.

These teams are picked to win and they are getting points. Money Line Dogs. Get them while they are hot.

Don’t be afraid when the pointspread moves. It is done so emotionally. QB gets hurt, RB gets suspended, who cares. The points will be adjusted. These selections are not based on 1 or 2 games but an entire season. Remember since 1977 this has not lost.

Just use some judgement and as we get closer the plays will become clearer and Spooky will let you know.

If you like a Pro game, start making small parlays with them on the best bets. By the time game time comes around you should have tons of action on the later games and that creates tons of profit!!!!

Since many ask about the way I mess with the strengths of each play, this is a synopsis of what I do.

I will usually rank them 1 thru 5 smileys with the 4 and 5 smileys very infrequently.
If there is no smiley listed than you can consider that anywhere from an opinion to 1 smiley.
When playing on the totals I will almost always consider it an opinion. For the simple reason that I crunch numbers during bowl season and the side has a value outside of what is my opinion. The total is basically my opinion (which is what I do the remaining months of the year). The total is totally subjective. I usually will make the total play anywhere from 1/4 to 1/2 of the listed play. So if I am playing 300 on a game then the total would be anywhere from 75 to 150 if we were to put a numerical dollar value on it.

Please remember this is what I do, I am not getting paid to determine your money management or what you should be doing. Certainly you can play everything equal or you can follow the smileys. This is just my Bowl Express and sharing with everyone what I am dong for the most part.

Home of the Spooky Express
Stop by to sign up for BetDSI and Bookmaker
Click here to sign up for WAGERWEB


Click here for all your fantasy sport needs:
FANDUEL.COM
DRAFTKINGS.COM


Click here for all your Amazon products:
SHOPWITHSPOOKY.COM

  • Last 7 Days Record: 30-22-2
  • Last 30 Days Record: 97-85-3
  • All Time Record: 1817-1253-41
spooky Posts:4088 Followers:294
12/08/2011 04:40 PM

This is where I get started early on.

Here will be all the team strengths indicating what teams are the strongest plays based solely on the system and based on the current pointspread.


As the odds change so can the selection.

Obviously the Best bets will not change dramatically.

There will be in the coming weeks more analysis and capping for each game along with some totals (Over/Unders) which will be posted much closer to game time since weather and other developments effect the game.

These teams listed here are picked to win and they are getting points. Money Line Dogs.
Here are some we are looking at early on.
Ohio, Western Michigan, Louisville, Cincinnati, West Virginia, SMU, and Alabama all are dogs that are picked to win outright but not as strong to go balls to the wall at this point other than.....

Virginia +1

There are quite a few outstanding money line dogs this year but there are a couple more that stand out and willl possibly be the play of the year. They will win outright and probably by double digits

Wisconsin +7


Stanford +4

These teams are picked to win outright with a significant advantage. Right now is where I jump on some early lines which stand out and get the best value for the wager. I may completely reverse my thinking as time goes by, but for now I let the numbers do the talking.

Temple -6

Florida International -4

Boise State -13

Rutgers -1

BYU -2

Illinois -3

Arkansas -7

Arkansas State -1



Home of the Spooky Express
Stop by to sign up for BetDSI and Bookmaker
Click here to sign up for WAGERWEB


Click here for all your fantasy sport needs:
FANDUEL.COM
DRAFTKINGS.COM


Click here for all your Amazon products:
SHOPWITHSPOOKY.COM

  • Last 7 Days Record: 30-22-2
  • Last 30 Days Record: 97-85-3
  • All Time Record: 1817-1253-41
spooky Posts:4088 Followers:294
12/08/2011 04:47 PM

New Mexico Bowl
Temple vs. Wyoming

Saturday, Dec. 17, 2:00 pm
ESPN


Here’s The Deal … You might not cancel your holiday shopping plans for the New Mexico Bowl, but after the lack of college football games since the end of the regular season, this one should be worth the time and energy. Temple has unofficially become the best non-BCS team over the last three years that hasn’t won anything.
On the plus side, the three-game winning streak to close out the year showed the team could rally and was enough to earn a second bowl bid in three seasons. With a pounding rushing offense, one of the nation’s most productive defensive fronts, and a scoring defense that allows fewer than 14 points per game, this is a good, sound team that pushed Penn State in a 14-10 loss and with three of the four losses coming by four points or fewer.
As stunning as Temple’s turnaround was a few years ago, Wyoming’s 2010 season was almost as impressive.

The Cowboys seemingly had nothing coming off a 3-9 season. It’s top quarterback, Austyn Carta-Samuels, took off, there was massive turnover on both sides of the ball, and outside of the 44-0 aberration over Colorado State to close things out, there wasn’t anything to suggest that this would be the program’s best season since going 8-3 in 1998.
Yes, beating Weber State, Texas State, Bowling Green, UNLV, New Mexico, and Colorado State was enough to form a nice base of wins over cupcakes, but the Cowboys won on the road at San Diego State and Air Force and weren’t awful in losses to TCU, Nebraska, and Boise State. There was a meltdown against Utah State, but for the most part this was a fun and exciting team that rallied behind Freshman All-America quarterback Brett Smith and managed to win three of its final four games to finish third in the Mountain West.
If the Cowboys and Owls each play up to their capabilities, this should be a very good, very competitive kickoff to the bowl season.

The running game for Temple is among the most productive in college football, and the Wyoming defense is one of the worst in the country against the run. The Cowboy defensive front is big at all four spots, and the linebacking is active and is great at getting around the ball, but it isn’t the fastest group around and it’s had a nightmare of a time with any quarterback that can run. The only teams that didn’t run well on Wyoming are the ones that couldn’t run on anyone.
The Owl offensive line has been devastating and the 1-2 rushing punch of Bernard Pierce and Matt Brown should be able to go ballistic. Wyoming doesn’t have the defensive front to be able to hold the Owls to under 250.

Defensively, helped by a strong pass rush that led the MAC with 32 sacks and is able to generate consistent pressure. Wyoming’s line has been good in pass protection, but the passing game isn’t explosive or particularly efficient. Temple’s secondary is fast and active, leading the MAC in yards allowed and second behind Kent State in pass efficiency defense. To win, Wyoming will have to run the ball, but Temple has the MAC’s best run defense.

Wyoming does not make many mistakes. Temple is a tight team when it comes to penalties and turnovers, but Wyoming is even better. Temple doesn’t have any passing game whatsoever, throwing for fewer than 100 yards in four of the final six games of the season. The air attack might be effective when it has to be, and it doesn’t turn the ball over, there’s absolutely nothing for the Cowboy secondary to fear. Partly due to the mobility of Brett Smith the Wyoming quarterback, the UW offensive line has been terrific in pass protection allowing just 11 sacks on the year. Even though he’s a freshman, Smith doesn’t make poor decisions and he’s great at getting the ball out of his hands in a hurry. He should be able to neutralize the Temple pass rush with quick hitters and taking off when needed.

Temple will run for 300 yards and will control the game and the clock, will keep the chains moving, the offense will have enough balance to get by, and the defense will come up with the stops it has to have. Spooky is looking at Temple to win this game by a bit more than 2 touchdowns. I never like to go too crazy early in bowl season and it always takes a bit of time to determine what to expect. Will come back with any total opinion as we get closer to the game but right now we are starting to play on Temple minus the points.


TEMPLE -6

TEMPLE/WYOMING OVER 50 POINTS (OPINION)

Home of the Spooky Express
Stop by to sign up for BetDSI and Bookmaker
Click here to sign up for WAGERWEB


Click here for all your fantasy sport needs:
FANDUEL.COM
DRAFTKINGS.COM


Click here for all your Amazon products:
SHOPWITHSPOOKY.COM

  • Last 7 Days Record: 30-22-2
  • Last 30 Days Record: 97-85-3
  • All Time Record: 1817-1253-41
spooky Posts:4088 Followers:294
12/08/2011 04:49 PM

Idaho Potato Bowl
Utah State vs. Ohio

Saturday, Dec. 17, 5:30 pm
ESPN

The Bobcats lean more toward the run as they run the ball approximately 60% of the time (558 rush attempts vs 401 pass attempts). Some good news for Bobcats fans is that they score more points on the road then they do at home (33.7 ppg to 27.8). If you are looking for an achilles heel of this Bobcats team look no further than their red zone offense.

Utah State almost took the College Football world by the throat in their opener against defending National Champion Auburn. Led by Freshman QB Chuckie Keeton the Aggies jumped out to a 21-7 lead and lead by 10 points with just three and a half minutes left before the Tigers staged an improbably comeback. From that point USU went on to lose four of their next six and looked like they were in for a long season. As luck would have it, the schedule turned and they faced only one team over the last five games that would finish the year with a winning record. The Aggies took advantage and won their last five games including quality wins over Nevada and Hawai'i.

Make no mistake about it, Utah State wants to run the football (the Aggies will run the ball twice for every time they pass). The previously mentioned freshman QB from Houston, Chuckie Keaton, had a nice season before suffering a nasty injury in the game against Hawai'i. Keaton is expected back for this game. Another player to watch in the Aggies ground attack in Junior RB Robert Turbin.
While it's maybe one of the least sexiest match-ups in all the bowl season, this game actually features a few guys that are strongly being considered as later round picks and potential fringe starters at the NFL level.

This feels like a pretty even match-up from where I sit but the numbers are showing that Ohio will win this game by a touchdown and along with the fact that I believe their is power in Solich. So you are giving Ohio a few points and they should win the game by a touchdown, kind of makes me thing this works out to be our first money line dog. Dont like to go too big early in bowl season with almost 3 dozen games ahead of us but I think Utah State makes a few mistakes and Ohio takes advantage. Lets go Bobcats. Please remember these numbers were posted more than 10 days ago on the analysis page early in this thread. I told everyone to grab the plays early and then take it from there. Perfect example of grabbing 3 points when I posted it and then deciding later if you want to middle the number.


OHIO +3

Home of the Spooky Express
Stop by to sign up for BetDSI and Bookmaker
Click here to sign up for WAGERWEB


Click here for all your fantasy sport needs:
FANDUEL.COM
DRAFTKINGS.COM


Click here for all your Amazon products:
SHOPWITHSPOOKY.COM

  • Last 7 Days Record: 30-22-2
  • Last 30 Days Record: 97-85-3
  • All Time Record: 1817-1253-41
spooky Posts:4088 Followers:294
12/08/2011 08:03 PM

New Orleans Bowl
San Diego State vs. UL-Lafayette

Saturday, Dec. 17, 9:00 pm
ESPN


The San Diego State Aztecs head into the Superdome this Saturday night as a road favorite in a neutral-site game when they take-on the hometown UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns in this year’s New Orleans Bowl.
The Aztecs failed to cover the spread in four of their final six games to finish 5-7 against the spread. The total went ‘over’ in two of its final three games, but was an even 6-6 on the year.
One thing the Aztecs have been able to do very well this season is run the ball.
They have also done a good job at finding the end zone with an average of 28.8 points a game this season, including putting-up a total of 101 points in their last three games.

UL Lafayette closed out the season with two straight losses, but covered the spread as a double-digit road underdog in both.
The loss to Red Wolves dropped their final record in the conference to 6-2 SU and the total went ‘over’ in eight of their 12 games this season.
This is another team that is no stranger to the end zone with an average of 32.3 points a game. The 21 points scored against Arkansas State was just the third time all season that UL Lafayette failed to score at least 30 points in a game.
The problem has been a defense that has trouble keeping its opponents out of the end zone as well. The Ragin’ Cajuns finished the regular season ranked 83rd in the country in points allowed; giving-up an average of 29.8 points a game.

As mentioned before, both these teams know how to put points on the board, and given the fast track at the Superdome that should be once again be the case come Saturday night. Home field advantage should also be a factor with UL Lafayette basically playing this game in their own backyard.

On all these write ups I will come back closer to game time to make a final determination and any opinions on the total. But looking at the game I see San Diego State winning the game by more than a touchdown and they are the better team so lets go from there. And regardless of the line I always buy down or up if it falls on the 1/2 point.


SAN DIEGO STATE -4

SAN DIEGO STATE vs. UL LAFAYETTE OVER 59 POINTS (OPINION)

Home of the Spooky Express
Stop by to sign up for BetDSI and Bookmaker
Click here to sign up for WAGERWEB


Click here for all your fantasy sport needs:
FANDUEL.COM
DRAFTKINGS.COM


Click here for all your Amazon products:
SHOPWITHSPOOKY.COM

  • Last 7 Days Record: 30-22-2
  • Last 30 Days Record: 97-85-3
  • All Time Record: 1817-1253-41