I have my eye on the Dolphins game against the Cowboys at Dallas. I also favor Miami as a good bet and I'll tell you why in a second.
First let's look at the pros and cons of both teams:
Pros: The Cowboys are going into Thursday's game in 1st place atop the NFC East tied with the Giants, after New York's loss against the Eagles. Dallas (6-4) is on a roll, if things go right this will be their first four game winning streak since 2007. QB Tony Romo is 18-2 in his career in November, hasn't been making many mistakes and executing well overall. The team is 5-0 against the spread in their last 5 games in Week 12 as well. This seemingly gives an edge to "America's Team," being the favorite at -7.
Cons: Dallas' overtime win against the Redskins on Sunday wasn't impressive. In fact, they struggled against a team that has a six game losing streak with an offense that was missing most of its playmakers. With their 4-1 surge, it's not hard to imagine the team falling prey to overconfidence, even if Coach Jason Garrett has instilled a sense of "trying to be great today" throughout the season.
Pros: Miami is hot (no pun intended); after dropping their first 7, they've clawed their way up with 3 impressive wins including a blowout against the Bills last Sunday (35-8). QB Matt Moore, once labeled a backup a best, has been showing the play and desire of a top passer in the last 3 games, "I just want to keep playing well and winning," Moore said, after completing 14 of 20 for 160 yards and 3 TDs. If the Dolphins keep doing what they're doing, it stacks the odds in their favor for this game.
Cons: Albeit its dramatic win on Sunday, the Bills weren't coming into the game at their strongest and lost some of their key players during the game, including Fred Jackson. As linebacker Jayson Taylor put it commenting on their win against Buffalo, "We're not sitting here saying, "Holy cow, we played pretty good. It's a great win. They all are. I've never seen a bad one. But we're not really bouncing off the walls about it." It's hard to see the Dolphins going the long run, even if they end up winning all their upcoming games and finish at the 9-7 mark. Taking on the Cowboys at home is not an easy feat, no matter how you look at it and the Dolphins could just be catching a lucky break.
It'll be interesting to see which team has a stronger desire to win. Will the Cowboys take it and move on to face an easy game against the Cardinals or will the Dolphins prove that the 3 game winning streak wasn't just a fluke?
I'm taking the Dolphins on this one.