cnotes Posts:24928 Followers:33
On 08/30/2014 12:37 AM in NFL

Cnote's NFL September Best Bets-Trends-Stats Etc !

AFC Preseason Wrap
August 28, 2014
Buffalo Bills: It's going to be interesting to see how E.J. Manuel handles his second season's ups and downs since the potential for permanent scarring appears great. He's already been booed off the field at halftime in the preseason home opener, criticized by Bills legend Jim Kelly and seems to be primed for a scapegoat role if there is no improvement in year two of the Doug Marrone era. After falling behind 24-0 in the dress rehearsal against Tampa Bay, he responded out of the break by going 5-for-5 on a touchdown drive. He'll need to display that type of resilience all season since it's clear that his history of injuries, inconsistency and the fact most didn't view him as a first-round pick has already depleted Buffalo's patience.

Miami Dolphins: Consistency is going to be the key for Ryan Tannehill in a new-look offense that ambitiously seeks to control pace and will require a high level of execution for them to surprise. Despite struggling against Dallas, he's got the weapons in place to make the Dolphins a factor if Mike Wallace does his job in stretching the field and Brian Hartline, Brandon Gibson, rookie Jarvis Landry and tight end Charles Clay come through in their roles, but that's not the issue. The biggest variable will come when center Mike Pouncey returns from offseason hip surgery, because there will be adjustments timing-wise for an offensive line that carries question marks. Samson Satele has done a nice job filling in during preseason and Miami won its last division title with him snapping the ball to Chad Pennington in '09, but this promises to be a far more aggressive pace he'll have to manage and he's got a less experienced passer making the decisions.

New England Patriots: Developing chemistry with new tight end Tim Wright is going to be among Tom Brady's chief objectives as the regular season approaces. He obviously knows what to expect with freakish Rob Gronkowski when the All-Pro is back at full strength, but developing another weapon out of his team's newest acquisition will make the Patriots all the more formidable early. Not only will it take some pressure off Gronk's comeback, but sets up another potential pairing of elite pass-catching tight ends given Wright's physical gifts and potential. He came on strong midway through rookie season in Tampa Bay, catching at least four passes in eight of his last 13 games while steadily increasing his activity and understanding of the offense. Ideally, he'll make a great red zone target and answer critics wondering how he could be worth surrendering veteran mainstay Logan Mankins.

New York Jets: It appears that the Jets are showing Stephen Hill just how displeased they are with his lack of development by exposing him in the final preseason game. There's nothing against the passive-aggressive approach considering what a disappointment he's been, but the cap hit they would have to take to cut the former second-round pick appears too great given what he can potentially fetch down the road via trade if a suitor comes knocking. As things stand, Hill certainly didn't take the step forward the Jets were hoping he would to help stretch the field to ease the workload for Geno Smith and Eric Decker, forcing David Nelson and Jeremy Kerley into larger roles. So, yeah, count on New York relying on its running game heavily.

Houston Texans: Ultimately, quarterback play remains the primary topic of conversation in Houston as another season approaches. While that does say something about how positive prized rookie Jadeveon Clowney's first impression was, excitement will be tempered if Ryan Fitzpatrick fails to be serviceable. After a dreadful opener, he found a rhythm, demonstrating improvement and seeking out Andre Johnson often in the dress rehearsal against Denver. Local product Case Keenum and rookie Tom Savage will also stick after competent play the past few weeks, but it's tough to forecast the position being a strength and it offers little consolation that former starter Matt Schaub seems to have a dead arm out in Oakland. The Texans will reunite with him out West in Week 2.

Indianapolis Colts: You know offensive line issues have crept up when you're seriously considering adding Richie Incognito to the roster. The headaches started almost immediately with center Khaled Holmes suffering a significant high ankle sprain in the preseason opener and continued with other nagging injuries springing up and inconsistency predictably plaguing key young linemen. It's no coincidence that the Colts entered the fourth and final preseason game winless, but it's also no secret that playing Andrew Luck four quarters is going to smooth out a lot of warts. How effective (and healthy) Holmes is in his projected return during Week 1 will determine a lot, especially with no time to settle in with games against Denver and Philadelphia up first. Incognito could help upgrade the interior line with his experience if he's right, but that obviously carries risk.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Blake Bortles isn't expected to see more than a drive or two, so don't expect to ride the rookie QB in the Jaguars preseason finale against Atlanta. Head coach Gus Bradley and his staff are putting more importance on picking a No. 3 quarterback between Ricky Stanzi and rookie Stephen Morris. Nothing against those two, but it would have been nice to for Bortles to play about a half against Atlanta, especially given the excitement he's generated among season ticket holders stuck with this fourth preseason game. The No. 3 overall pick is not going to get any game reps for the foreseeable future come regular season, but the Jaguars do intend on giving him extended reps during game week, cutting into starter Chad Henne's preparation time. How that delicate balance is struck will be more important than wins and losses.

Tennessee Titans: There are a lot of questions surrounding a team still trying to round out its depth, but it was a promising sign to see Jake Locker fare so well, as he finished with a passer rating of 119.9 in completing 70 percent of his attempts with no turnovers. Rookie Zach Mettenberger has led all NFL quarterbacks in passing yardage, so at the very least, it appears Ken Whisenhunt putting an emphasis on creating depth at receiver has done wonders for the confidence of his quarterbacks. Primary backup Charlie Whitehurst has missed time with a finger issue but is well-versed in the system from his time with Whisenhunt in San Diego. The early success of Locker in picking up a new system put the Titans on the short list of potential surprise teams.

Baltimore Ravens: Despite concern over RB Bernard Pierce's ability to be healthy for week 1 due to a mild concussion and Ray Rice's two-game absence, the biggest long-long-term obstacle remains the secondary. With Jimmy Smith and Lardarius Webb missing so much time already, odds are they won't be sharp early during the regular season even if they managed to get back without missing any games. Asa Jackson, Chykie Brown, Dominique Franks and newcomer Derek Cox have to hold down the fort and for a team that sees the Bengals and Steelers in a four-day span in their first two regular-season games.

Cincinnati Bengals: Even if he'd never gotten his headline-grabbing, cap-friendly contract and been left out to dry, Andy Dalton would've still been the subject of scrutiny in 2014. This preseason shows he's answering the bell, a good thing since the Bengals season is going to hinge entirely on him breaking through the ceiling. What this last month has also shown is that the Bengals can't afford to get him hurt. Backups Jason Campbell and AJ McCarron have been hurt most of the way and would provide a drastic downgrade if anything ever happened to the Red Rifle. It will be on him and AJ Green to get the season off to a good start at Baltimore. A Joe Flacco-like response to pressure would go a long way, so it seems like a fitting opening test.

Cleveland Browns: Banishing Josh Gordon for a full season is a damaging blow for everyone associated with the franchise, especially Gordon. With the NFL sticking to its stance, the star receiver will have to set up a close circle around him to stay out of trouble and meet conditions for reinstatement in a year's time. As for the Browns, they lose out on having an elite target to help Johnny Manziel develop later on this season, because at some point come November, the former Heisman Trophy winner will probably be starting. Without Gordon, who often played security blanket for all the quarterbacks this preseason, it's inevitable that Manziel's improvisational skills will be put to use more often and we'll witness whether he's learned enough not to get himself killed.

Pittsburgh Steelers: LeVeon Bell and LeGarrette Blount will not only play in the final preseason game against Carolina, but are also unlikely to miss time this season over their recent arrests for marijuana possession since the league will wait out the judicial process. If the offensive line stays healthy, the Steelers could have a monster year on offense and plan on complementing the unit with an aggressive, attacking defense. Playing four of their first six on the road may temper their approach, but this team looks capable of proving they're done with 8-8 seasons right out of the gate.

Denver Broncos: Losing top linebacker Danny Trevathan for a month and Wes Welker's unfortunate latest concussion overshadowed everything else in an otherwise productive August, but neither setback currently appears season-altering. Barring complications, Trevathan will be back at full strength by the postseason, but their receiver's dilemma is far more complicated. It remains to be seen whether the Broncos pull back on sending Welker on his more dangerous patterns or conserve him for the more challenging games, but it would appear that Demariyus Thomas' presence, the emergence of Julius Thomas and arrival of Emmanuel Sanders takes pressure off rushing Welker back or placing too heavy a load on him early. Second-round pick Cody Latimer has looked impressive as a route-runner and blocker, so another quality option has emerged for Peyton Manning.

Kansas City Chiefs: Jamaal Charles didn't need a ton of preseason work as it is given the load that awaits, so news that his bruised foot feels fine and he'll be 100 percent for the opener is reassuring. Andy Reid's system reduces the number of conventional handoffs, but Charles still got over 17 carries per game for the second straight season while more than doubling his targets out of the backfield to finish with a career-high 70 receptions. With Dwayne Bowe suspended for the season opener, he'll be the offense, thrust right in against Tennessee despite the lack of in-game reps. Charles got a season-high 22 carries at Tennessee last year, rushing for 108 yards and a TD while adding five catches. Knile Davis wrapped up the backup gig, while capable options Joe McKnight and Cyrus Gray will vie for time but may both make the team due to their versatility.

Oakland Raiders: Matt Schaub's elbow trouble has Raiders management crossing their fingers, fans hoping for rookie Derek Carr to get on-the-job training anx overachiever Matt McGloin potentially in line to start as many games as he did last season. He's expecting to be fine for the season opener against the Jets, but there's no question that hopes he'd be in for a revival after an awful ending in Houston have taken a hit. It would be best if he's able to overcome this slow start since it would keep Carr from being thrown into the fire and give the Raiders a veteran presence under center to try and set a confident offensive tone alongside veteran backs Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew.

San Diego Chargers: Don't sleep on Philip Rivers appears to be the theme here. He had an efficient August, completing 15-of-18 passes in limited action, adding a touchdown against the 49ers defense to tidily wrap up in-game preparations. He'll have weeks to study the Cardinals defense and knows he's got the freshest Antonio Gates we've seen in years, not to mention his emerging tight end protégé Ladarius Green, Swiss Army knife Danny Woodhead, Vincent Brown, Malcom Floyd and last year's breakout star, Keenan Allen. The Chargers will open in Arizona and then host the same Seahawks that squashed them 41-14 two weeks ago, so we'll know quickly whether they're ready to take a step forward in Year 2 under Mike McCoy.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24928 Followers:33
08/30/2014 12:40 AM

NFC Preseason Wrap

August 29, 2014


Dallas Cowboys: Dez Bryant provided the highlights in preseason, often looking unstoppable. He even got himself a new contract just to keep him happy. At least owner/GM Jerry Jones knows where his bread is buttered. If Tony Romo has any hope of overcoming the first few weeks after offseason back surgery, he'll need Bryant locked in and productive, so Jones did his part. He's also tried to dampen expectations, calling the season an uphill battle when addressing fans at the kickoff luncheon. You would think the Cowboys went undefeated in the preseason or something.

New York Giants: Eli Manning completed another pass in the fourth preseason game, matching his output in Games 1 and 2 combined. It went for 0 yards. So there's that. There were obviously positives to draw upon from the team's first unbeaten August since 2006, but the new West Coast offense isn't one of them, at least among the starters. There were some near-misses from Manning to Victor Cruz, so the answers probably start with stretching the field through him to help gain some confidence, help other guys find a rhythm and get this attack some teeth.

Philadelphia Eagles: The starters shined against Pittsburgh, pulling away for an easy win in the Week 3 dress rehearsal. The guys most likely to be cut trounced the Jets future cast-offs, basically running up the score because they were fresher and executed better. Philly has this exhibition thing down. New coach Chip Kelly's did a nice job in his second preseason and didn't have to deal with as many distractions as he did in his maiden voyage, so there's no reason the Eagles shouldn't be stronger with Jeremy Maclin back and most of the roster familiar with their coach's formations and philosophies. Nick Foles wasn't as sharp in games as many would've liked, but his familiarity with the system should lead to an improvement, too. If he regresses or gets hurt, super backup Mark Sanchez looms as an unlikely safety net so long as he retains his regained confidence.

Washington Redskins: Kirk Cousins outplayed Robert Griffin III. There's no denying that. RG III remains the more dynamic choice, but the fact team observers like Joe Theismann aren't alone in their opinion that the more conventional Cousins is a better fit for a team with a standout running back and dynamic receiving threats seems like a debate that won't be going away. Every loss will be met with what-ifs, so the only way for Griffin to stop the chirping will be to win. Most have conveniently forgotten that Cousins struggled mightily last season, throwing four touchdowns against seven interceptions and finishing with a QB rating of 58.4. That doesn't seem to matter, and won't, if Griffin falters. No NFC team has a more compelling and potentially divisive quarterback situation.

Atlanta Falcons: Steven Jackson is a 31-year-old running back who wanted no part of participating in preseason games, so there is no real concern that he did August his way. What does bear watching is whether he's lost any further juice from where he left off last December, when he at least looked like he could still contribute at a reasonably high level. His first season in Atlanta was a lost cause, seeing him tear his hamstring in Week 2 after an encouraging debut at New Orleans, slowly regaining his form after rushing back to return six weeks later. There was some burst displayed there at the end, at least enough to be encouraged about the possibility he can again be a 1,000-yard back, but his streak of consecutive seasons reaching that benchmark ended at eight. Odds are he's done being that type of back, but it's important that he's easing back into a return. He'll likely need a few weeks under his belt to see whether he can knock off the rust from this preseason's hamstring issue, but it's too early to write him off just because he's decided to return on his timetable. Backup Jacquizz Rodgers and FSU products Antone Smith and Devonta Freeman have looked capable thus far and may all be a factor in the season opener at New Orleans given the need to keep Drew Brees off the field.

Carolina Panthers: Panthers got to see Cam Newton, though clearly limited and rusty, move around some. Considering where we were coming into this month, that's probably a victory. They were right to be especially cautious after his ankle surgery, but needed to see glimpses of Superman. Quite frankly, they were few and far between and he fractured a rib, never fun, but he gained the confidence he'll be able to function when the lights come on. His throws were off and there will be timing issues until he fully sheds the rust, but the unproven wide receiving corps fared reasonably well, too, especially rookie Kelvin Benjamin. There's hope this season won't yield a drastic decline, but a lot has to come together, including the new-look offensive line that didn't look so hot.

New Orleans Saints: The Saints were counting on Kenny Stills being their deep threat since they got so many other intriguing options working the middle of the field. Rookie Brandin Cooks is the team's fastest weapon, but his lack of size means he's better suited to turn short passes up field as opposed to going up to get it over an opposing corner. Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and Robert Meachem can each be wildly productive, but don't stretch a defense like Stills, who aggravated a quad injury that has kept him out most of training camp. Joseph Morgan or rookie Brandon Coleman may find themselves in Stills' role until he's able to go.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Adding guard Logan Mankins to lead the offensive line may wind up being more important than the drafting of top WR Mike Evans or the acquisition of new QB Josh McCown. That's no exaggeration, since there are other capable players on the roster at those positions, but the Bucs were going to see their season go down the tubes due to their porous interior line. Tampa's offensive pieces are young, which means Mankins walks into an immediate leadership position due to his championship pedigree and experience. If he's got a chip on his shoulder over being dumped by the Patriots, that would be ideal. His presence could mean at least a couple more wins than they would've managed without him, making him critical to Lovie Smith's restoration project.

Chicago Bears: Preseason results don't matter, but sometimes individual plays do. It just depends which ones you choose to accentuate. It was impressive to see Jay Cutler run a masterful two-minute drill down 28-0 in the dress rehearsal game at Seattle, beating Richard Sherman on a nice route run by Brandon Marshall and hitting Martellus Bennett on a gorgeous back shoulder throw just short of the goal line. He even executed in getting Dante Rosario a short touchdown that was nullified, but then struggled with timing on the next snap and carelessly threw an interception to complete a horrid half. Good Cutler has thrived more of late, but bad Cutler still exists. The Bears season will ride on whether Cutler continues that upward trend in Marc Trestman's system or reverts to being counterproductive. Week 1 supplies an interesting wrinkle in that new Bills backup Jordan Palmer will be supplying key information to his new coaches and teammates, placing additional pressure on Cutler to be judicious.

Detroit Lions: Rookie linebacker Kyle Van Noy, a second-round pick from BYU, was already opening eyes in camp and preseason games with his instincts and athleticism, but had surgery for a sports hernia and should miss at least a couple of games. At some point this season, Van Noy was likely to emerge as a three-down player on the outside, so it remains to be seen whether this is an obstacle halo overcome or a setback that helps spoil his potential first-year impact. Considering all the close games the Lions played last season because they failed to get stops, his contributions could make a major difference.

Green Bay Packers: Eddie Lacy had a brilliant camp, complete with shining in the preseason games he participated in. After 1,178 rushing yards as a rookie, it's likely he's in for a monster year behind what's expected to be a stronger offensive line if they stay healthy. Aaron Rodgers has never had a better running back next to him, so it's going to be telling to as to where this offense is against the NFL's best defense on the road in Seattle come Thursday night. There's no shame in struggling, but if they manage to win or march up and down the field in a loss, the potential for this attack would be frightening.

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings are encouraged by their defensive improvement and Adrian Peterson being healthier than he was last season, but the Matt Cassel-Teddy Bridgewater QB battle remains the most riveting thing to watch from this bunch. To their credit, both had excellent camps, putting together the level of competition they would have loved to have seen in Cleveland, so you get the sense that the rookie's grasp of the offense is strengthening and he'll be a factor at some point. Making a call on when to turn the team over to the young guy appears to be Mike Zimmer's biggest impending call as a first-year head coach.

Arizona Cardinals: Veteran John Abraham was a major surprise last year, displaying great form with 11.5 sacks and four forced fumbles after coming over from Atlanta. He's 36 years old and didn't report to training camp until mid-August due to a DUI and subsequent stint in rehab, so there are more questions than there already would be about an aging defender, although it's unknown whether he'll miss games this season as the judicial process plays out. He'll start at weakside linebacker as he did a season ago, but it remains to be seen whether he can remain a consistent force.

St. Louis Rams: Shaun Hill has put together decent numbers in his career, but hasn't prepared his mind for the task of being the starter from week-to-week since 2010. Matthew Stafford's rise and durability has limited him to four games and 16 pass attempts over the past three regular seasons, so Hill's approach and ability to put games, good or bad, behind him to focus on the next one, will determine how successful he'll be in replacing Sam Bradford. It bears mentioning that the former No. 1 overall pick did look impressive before his latest ACL tear, complicating the Rams plans at QB going forward. Hill may not be more than a stopgap, but he'll presumably have the whole season to prove himself given the presence of Austin Davis and rookie Garrett Gilbert behind him.

San Francisco 49ers: The perception has been that the 49ers were planning to limit Frank Gore's workload as he enters his 10th season, but he's coming off a season where he had the third-highest total of carries in his career and looked fresh a drive spry this August. Rookie Carlos Hyde and LaMichael James are going to get work, but Gore should still be a significant part of the offense, especially early given the instability displayed early from Colin Kaepernick and the offensive line.

Seattle Seahawks: We'll get to see what Percy Harvin's effect on Russell Wilson and this offense truly is. After one regular-season game where he caught a single pass, he was used primarily as a decoy in the postseason, remaining relatively quiet coming up with the exception of a couple of explosive plays. Harvin told reporters that he's as healthy as he's been since "maybe before college," though the Seahawks are smartly still easing him back given his history of hip and leg injuries. If he's right, he's the home run hitter that's been lacking in this attack, so they may score a few more points and cover a few more spreads.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24928 Followers:33
08/30/2014 12:41 AM

Trends to Watch - September

August 26, 2014


It’s official. The pig is in the air.

That means it is now September and with it an array of NFL handicapping team trends are suddenly in play for fans and ‘trendsvestites’ alike.

Listed below are some of the best and worst team performances during the opening month of September. Team breakdowns include records at home, away, as a favorite, as an underdog, and in division games. All results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

Remember, as the late, great Howard Cosell once said, “What’s right isn’t always popular. What’s popular isn’t always right.”

Play accordingly.

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): The Detroit Lions have been fast starters at home with a 27-16 ATS record in the opening month of the season will play host to the New York football Giants (9/8) and Green Bay (9/21).

Keep an eye on (Bad): Here we have home teams that frustrate wagering home fans. Cincinnati is the worst of the bunch at a miserable 13-25 ATS and they will face Atlanta and Tennessee in Week’s 2 and 3.

Jay Gruden will attempt to break the negative cycle in Washington at 15-26 ATS when Jacksonville (9/14) and the Giants (9/25) arrive to face the team without an approved nickname any more.

Arizona will have two shots to better a 13-22 ATS record with San Diego in the desert on the opening Monday night and San Francisco 13 days later.

AWAY TEAMS

Bad: It has not mattered if Sam Bradford has been hurt or not or any other Rams quarterback for that matter, St. Louis has been a superior ‘play against’ road team at 14-29 ATS. Because of an early bye on this year’s schedule there is just one chance to bet against the Rams: at Tampa Bay (9/14).

Keep an eye on (Bad): This has been a mystery for years why Pittsburgh has been a bad bet at 14-27 ATS, never quite ready to begin the season. Let’s see how they do a short week at Baltimore (9/11) and 10 days later at Carolina.

As good as Detroit has been at home this month, that’s how bad they are away from home at 16-27 ATS. Keep a watchful eye on them at Carolina (9/14) and two weeks later in the New Jersey vs. the Jets.

FAVORITES

Keep an eye on (Good): The defending NFL champions Seattle are moneymakers out of the gate at 27-15 ATS and should be favored all three times against very good competition, facing the Packers, at San Diego and a rematch with Denver in the first three weeks. Given the fact they are 17-1 SU and 13-5 ATS at home the past two seasons behind QB Russell Wilson they will be hard to fade at CenturyLink Field.

Bad: September has been a very bad month for several teams when listed as favorites. Let’s start with Carolina at 7-17 ATS and since they are lacking perimeter playmakers, they could be in trouble during the initial three weeks of the year being anticipated as favorites.

Most likely Arizona (7-16 ATS) will only be favored once and that is the opener with the Chargers. Presuming Sam Bradford can go, the Rams (12-24 ATS) are a Week 1 home favorite versus Minnesota, but Week 3 when Dallas is on the shores of the Mississippi River is up in the air right now.

Keep an eye on (Bad): As mentioned, the Bengals will have two home tilts and will be doling out points and with an 11-21 spread record in that role. You might have to look to the other side.

UNDERDOGS

Good: Especially in the Tony Romo era, betting against Dallas has been profitable. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have been money as underdogs the first three to four weeks of the season at 23-10 ATS. While we don’t know for certain, there is a possibility the Boys could be dogs the entire month facing San Fran (9/7) at Tennessee (9/14), at St. Louis (9/21) and when Drew Brees and company comes to Big D on the final Sunday of September. Watch closely.

Bad: Pittsburgh’s pathetic road record has translated into crummy results as an underdog at 9-20 ATS. Those two away outings to visit the Ravens and Panthers could mean more ‘play against’ opportunities for NFL bettors.

DIVISION

Good: Kansas City has annually fared well against AFC West rivals early with a 22-11 ATS mark and makes the trip to Denver in Week 2 to see if they can make their good fortune continue.

Keep an eye on (Bad): If you think you have seen Cincinnati’s name a lot as a ‘play against’ squad in this treatise you are correct. And they fit again in AFC North action making the trip over to Baltimore on Sept. 7 with a 12-20 ATS record in division action.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24928 Followers:33
08/31/2014 11:40 PM

NFL Power Rankings: Week 1

NFL Power Rankings

Current Rank Last Week Change Team W-L-T

(ATS) Power Rating Team Comments

1 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -7 Seattle
The past two defending Super Bowl champions (Giants, Ravens) both lost outright in their first game on Thursday but Seattle is 6-0 ATS in their last six as a home favorite of seven points or less.

2 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -4.5 San Francisco
San Francisco's defense took a hit with the suspension of linebacker Aldon Smith, but the 49ers went 6-0-1 ATS last season as road favorites and are 6-0 Over under Jim Harbaugh the first two weeks of the season.

3 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -4 Green Bay
Green Bay opens the season with three road games in their first four including a huge test at Seattle opening night. The Packers are 2-5 ATS as road dogs the last two years but they are 4-1 ATS their last five Thursday games.

4 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -3.5 Denver
Peyton Manning will be out for revenge after losing to his former team last season. Denver is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while going 8-0 Over first 8 games last season.

5 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -3.25 New Orleans
The Saints early schedule is a good one as their first 7 games are against teams that failed to post a winning record last season. New Orleans went 0-4 ATS last year as road favorites and the home team has covered 5 straight in this series.

6 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -3 New England
New England is again a big favorite to win the AFC East for a sixth straight season. The Patriots were just 2-7 ATS on the road last year and the home team and the under has cashed the last four meetings.

7 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -2 San Diego
According to reports, the Chargers offense is clicking under new OC Frank Reich so they could be a dangerous sleeper if the defense improves. San Diego was 5-1-1 ATS last season as a road underdog.

8 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -1.5 Philadelphia
After closing 7-2 last year, the Eagles are the favorites in what seems to be a weak NFC East. They are a big chalk here but they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games as double-digit favorites.

9 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -1.25 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs each of the last two years following 8-8 seasons but the early schedule sets up very well so it won't start 0-4 again this year. The Steelers have covered five straight divisional games.

10 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -1 Baltimore
Baltimore has a great home field edge, going 39-9 during the regular season under Jim Harbaugh. The Ravens are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 as a home favorite of 7 points or less in the Harbaugh era.

11 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) -0.5 Kansas City
The Chiefs need to put the playoff debacle against Indianapolis behind them but the early schedule is tough with Tennessee being the only easy game through the first six. Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in their last five at home.

12 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 0 Cincinnati
Cincinnati has made the playoffs the last three years only to lose in the first round each time but it is again the favorite in the AFC North but not by much. The home team has won eight of the last nine meetings.

13 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 0.5 Chicago
This is the second year in the system under head coach Marc Trestman and after improving last season, things could be even more explosive this year. Chicago is 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 home games.

14 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 1 Arizona
It will be tough for the Cardinals to post double-digit wins once again playing in a brutal division and a tough out of conference schedule on top of it. Arizona has covered its last four season openers.

15 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 1.5 Atlanta
Atlanta went 4-12 last season, its first losing campaign under Mike Smith but seven losses were by a touchdown or less so it could be a value team this year. The under is 5-0 in their last five meetings in Atlanta.

16 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 2 Carolina
The Panthers will again rely on their defense to repeat in the NFC South which no team has ever done. Carolina has gone 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog and hasn't covered a season opener since 2008.

17 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 2.25 Indianapolis
The Colts are ranked as low as they are because they have been outgained in yardage each of the last two years but an easy schedule can reverse that. Indianapolis is 0-6 ATS in their last six season openers but has covered six straight vs. Denver.

18 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 2.5 St. Louis
The Rams suffered a big loss with Sam Bradford going down for the season after playing only seven games last season so it is up to Shaun Hill now. St. Louis is 21-9 Over their alst 30 games as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

19 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 2.75 Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is the sleeper team in the NFC South with head coach Lovie Smith taking over and buoyed by a very easy schedule. The Buccaneers are 13-29-1 ATS in their last 43 home games.

20 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 3 N.Y. Giants
After missing the playoffs the last two years, the schedule is on the side of New York as a win here could lead to a 5-0 start. The Giants are 0-7 ATS in their last seven Monday night games as underdogs of four or more points.

21 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 3.25 Detroit
Jim Caldwell takes over for a Detroit teams that has lost 17 of its last 24 games but it is loaded on both sides of the ball. The Lions have covered five of their last six as Monday night favorites.

22 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 4 Tennessee
Tennessee has not been to playoffs in five years but that could change this season under new head coach Ken Whisenhunt as it plays the second easiest schedule in the league. The Under is 6-1 in the Titans last seven season openers.

23 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 4.5 N.Y. Jets
The Jets have missed the playoffs the last three years after going to back-to-back AFC Championships but it will be tough to compete in the AFC East. New York went 3-0 ATS as a home favorite last season.

24 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 4.75 Minnesota
New head coach Mike Zimmer comes into town with a roster full of talent and Minnesota was better than last season's record shows with four losses by four points or less. Minnesota is 4-0 Over its last four road games.

25 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 5 Washington
The Redskins took a huge step back last season and head into Houston riding an eight-game losing streak while covering just two of those. Jay Gruden looks to turn it around fast but the Redskins are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

26 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 5.25 Jacksonville
Jacksonville could top the list for most improved team after closing last season a respectable 4-4 and the Jaguars are loaded with young talent. The Over is 5-2 in the Jaguars last seven road games.

27 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 5.75 Dallas
Expectations are not very high for Dallas this season and that could be a good thing but it faces a very tough opening test here. The Cowboys are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games but did go 2-0 ATS as a home dog last year.

28 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 6 Miami
Head coach Joe Philbin is on the hot season after a 15-17 start his first two years and the Dolphins may be undervalued in this spot with a lot of potential. Miami is 9-1 Under in their last nine games against division opponents.

29 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 6.25 Buffalo
Three straight 6-10 finishes for the Bills have been frustrating but they have been involved in some tough losses the last two years so things could get better. Buffalo has covered seven of its last nine season openers.

30 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 6.5 Houston
Things can only get better for Houston after losing its last 14 games last season which included nine losses by a touchdown or less. The Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six as a favorite over the last two seasons.

31 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 6.75 Cleveland
The quarterback controversy in Cleveland is over for now but a poor start could have us see Johnny Football quicker than expected. The Browns have won a total of seven games in the AFC North over the last six years.

32 same 0-0-0
(0-0-0) 8 Oakland
The Raiders are the worst team in the NFL until they prove otherwise. Playing a schedule featuring 11 games against teams with a wining record last year doesn't help. The Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the AFC.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24928 Followers:33
09/01/2014 02:47 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Green Bay at Seattle
The Packers open the season against the defending champion Seahawks on Thursday night and come into the contest with a 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 Thursday games. Green Bay is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+6). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4

Game 461-462: Green Bay at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 133.926; Seattle 137.164
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 3; 41
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6; 45
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+6); Under


SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7

Game 463-464: New Orleans at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 137.138; Atlanta 130.846
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 2 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-2 1/2); Over

Game 465-466: Minnesota at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 130.652; St. Louis 132.054
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 6; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6); Over

Game 467-468: Cleveland at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.022; Pittsburgh 138.425
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 15 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6); Over

Game 469-470: Jacksonville at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 124.816; Philadelphia 133.483
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 8 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 11; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+11); Over

Game 471-472: Oakland at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 120.602; NY Jets 135.250
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 14 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 5; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-5); Over

Game 473-474: Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 134.095; Baltimore 131.442
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2 1/2); Under

Game 475-476: Buffalo at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 124.013; Chicago 133.118
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 9; 52
Vegas Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-6 1/2); Over

Game 477-478: Washington at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 119.942; Houston 125.013
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5; 49
Vegas Line: Houston by 2 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-2 1/2); Over

Game 479-480: Tennessee at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 129.971; Kansas City 132.518
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 6; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+6); Under

Game 481-482: New England at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.356; Miami 129.666
Dunkel Line: New England by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: New England by 4; 47
Dunkel Pick: New England (-4); Over

Game 483-484: Carolina at Tampa Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.830; Tampa Bay 134.051
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 35
Vegas Line: Carolina by 1; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1); Under

Game 485-486: San Francisco at Dallas (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 141.550; Dallas 130.068
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5; 51
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-5); Under

Game 487-488: Indianapolis at Denver (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 136.352; Denver 140.289
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4; 50
Vegas Line: Denver by 7 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7 1/2); Under


MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 8

Game 489-490: NY Giants at Detroit (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 123.754; Detroit 139.788
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 16; 42
Vegas Line: Detroit by 4 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-4 1/2); Under

Game 491-492: San Diego at Arizona (10:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 140.461; Arizona 140.268
Dunkel Line: Even; 41
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3 1/2); Under

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24928 Followers:33
09/01/2014 02:48 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GREEN BAY (8 - 8 - 1) at SEATTLE (16 - 3) - 9/4/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, September 7

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (12 - 6) at ATLANTA (4 - 12) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (5 - 10 - 1) at ST LOUIS (7 - 9) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 98-134 ATS (-49.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 23-41 ATS (-22.1 Units) in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND (4 - 12) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 92-61 ATS (+24.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-24 ATS (+19.6 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JACKSONVILLE (4 - 12) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 7) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OAKLAND (4 - 12) at NY JETS (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (11 - 6) at BALTIMORE (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-2 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (6 - 10) at CHICAGO (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 32-51 ATS (-24.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON (3 - 13) at HOUSTON (2 - 14) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (7 - 9) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 6) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (13 - 5) at MIAMI (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 160-121 ATS (+26.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (12 - 5) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 12) - 9/7/2014, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (14 - 5) at DALLAS (8 - 8) - 9/7/2014, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (12 - 6) at DENVER (15 - 4) - 9/7/2014, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, September 8

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (7 - 9) at DETROIT (7 - 9) - 9/8/2014, 7:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.
DETROIT is 23-44 ATS (-25.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 48-72 ATS (-31.2 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (10 - 8) at ARIZONA (10 - 6) - 9/8/2014, 10:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in dome games since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24928 Followers:33
09/01/2014 02:48 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Packers @ Seahawks-- Seahawks won/covered 10 of their last 11 home openers, including last five in row; under is 11-1-1 in their last 13 home openers. Home side won seven of last eight series games; Pack is 2-3 in last five games here, losing last visit in ’12 on awful call by replacement refs on last play of game. Green Bay lost 14-12/34-28 in last two road openers; they allowed 30+ points in last three series openers. Packers had been 17-7-1 as road dog under McCarthy until LY, when they were 1-3, 1-2 with sub QB’s playing. Since ‘07, Pack is 11-6 as non-divisional road dogs. Since ‘05, Seahawks are 31-16-1 as home favorites, 12-5 under Carroll, 6-3 vs. non-division foes.

Saints @ Falcons-- Saints won six of last seven meetings in this underrated rivalry, with five of last six wins by 6 or less points; they’ve won six of last eight visits here, with last four wins by 4 or less points. NO covered only one of last seven road openers (3-4 SU), with five of last six going over total. Atlanta won last six home openers and nine of last 10 (9-1 vs. spread). Saints are 6-4 in last ten AFC South road games, with only one win by more than 4 points- its been four years since they won a divisional road game by more than 7 points. Falcons are 11-6-1 vs. spread in NFC South home games under Smith; they were -7 in turnovers LY, after being +35 the three years before that.

Vikings @ Rams-- Zimmer’s first game as head coach comes vs. veteran Ram defense that has 105 sacks in two years under Fisher (#1/#3 in NFL) and upgraded at DC this year with Gregg Williams back on job. Frazier was 8-5 vs spread as a non-divisional road underdog in three years as Minnesota HC; Vikings are 2-8 in last ten road openers, losing last four (1-2-1 vs. spread); they won last two games with Rams 38-10/36-22, but none of these coaches, few of these players took part in those games. Rams lost six of last seven openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Fisher; St Louis is 4-3 as home favorite under Fisher- they were +8 in turnovers LY, just second time in last seven years they had positive ratio.

Browns @ Steelers-- Pittsburgh has treated Browns like a pinata, winning 19 of 20 meetings, last three by 14-16-13 points; Cleveland lost last nine visits here, last six by 11+ points- they scored two TD’s on 24 drives in two games vs. Pitt LY, but now there is new coach/GM in Cleveland; they were 3-0 when Hoyer started LY; he passed for 321 yards in only road start, at Minnesota. Steelers are 10-8-1 as divisional home favorites under Tomlin; they went 8-8 SU in each of last two years, are -27 in turnovers last three years, so there is pressure on them. Steelers won 10 of last 11 home openers, covering seven of last nine, with last five staying under the total.

Jaguars @ Eagles-- Philly is just 9-23 vs spread at home the last four years, 9-17 as home favorite, 0-2 when laying double digits; they won 28-3 in Jacksonville four years ago, its first series win in four games; Jags won 13-6 here in ‘06, their only visit to Linc. Eagles lost six of last eight home openers, winning by 1-35 points (0-5 vs. spread in last five); their last two home openers were decided by total of four points. Jags lost five of last six road openers (2-4 vs. spread); seven of their last ten road openers stayed under total. Jax is 5-15 vs. spread in last 20 games vs. NFC teams; Iggles are 7-13 in their last 20 vs AFC squads. Over last five years, Week 1 double digit favorites are 3-4 against the spread.

Raiders @ Jets-- Jets blocked punt for TD, led 20-3 at half in 37-27 (-3) win over Oakland LY, Raiders 4th loss in row here, and 11th win for home side in last 14 series games. Raiders started 0-1 in ten of last eleven seasons; they’ve lost three of last four road openers, losing by 25-22-4 points. Gang Green won four of last five home openers, with three of last four decided by 3 or less points- they’re 5-16 vs. spread in last 21 home openers, but covered last two. Raiders are 10-15 as dogs under Allen, 7-8 on road (2-14 SU). Jets are 12-16-1 as single digit favorites under Ryan. Over is 10-4-1 in Oakland’s last 15 road openers, 2-4 in Jets’ last six home openers.

Bengals @ Ravens-- Ravens had only three offensive TD’s on 29 drives vs Bengals LY, all on drives of 53 or less yards; they were outgained by 345 yards in two series meetings LY, but now Cincy has two new coordinators (Zimmer/Gruden are HC‘s), while Kubiak is upgrade over Caldwell as OC for Baltimore offense. Home side won eight of last nine series games; Bengals lost last four visits here, by 6-7-31-3 points. Baltimore won its last nine home openers, covering seven, with all nine wins by 7+ points. Cincy started 0-1 five of last six years; they lost five of last seven road openers. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Raven openers, 5-0 in Bengals’ last five road openers.

Bills @ Bears-- Buffalo signed Bears' old backup QB Palmer last week, does that give them edge here? They're 4-15-1 as road underdog last three years; they’re 0-5 at Soldier Field, with four losses by 17+ points- their last visit here was a 40-7 loss in ‘06. Chicago is 7-4 overall in series, with last meeting 22-19 Bear win in Toronto in ‘10. Bills lost eight of last ten road openers, covering one of last four- they’re 6-5 vs. spread as a dog in road openers. Chicago won last five home openers (1-3-1 vs. spread in last five as favorite in HO). Since ‘07, Bears are 13-22-3 as home favorites, 1-3-2 under Trestman, but they’re 5-1-2 in last eight games vs. AFC foes. Over last nine years, Buffalo is 12-21-3 vs. spread vs. NFC teams. Over is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last five road openers, 3-0 in Bears’ last three home openers.

Redskins @ Texans-- Houston went 2-14 LY, losing last 14 games after going 24-10 in previous 34, so they changed coaches, traded for Mallett Sunday, so current QB Fitzpatrick is lame duck starter; Texans won last four home openers, covering three, scoring 30+ points in all four- six of their last nine home openers stayed under total. Washington lost five of last six road openers, but is 6-3 vs. spread as dogs in road openers, with four of last five going over total. Since ‘09, Texans are 5-12-3 vs. spread when facing NFC foe- they were 0-4 as home favorites LY, after being 20-14 the six years before that. Redskins won 31-15 in only visit to Reliant in ‘06; Texans won in OT in last series meeting, in ‘10. Jay Gruden is rookie NFL head coach, but had 93-61 record as a HC in Arena Football, winning two titles.

Titans @ Chiefs-- Whisenhunt was 16-20-2 as road dog with Arizona, but 4-0-1 vs. spread in road openers there; Titans won two of last three visits to Arrowhead, in series where visitor won four of last five meetings. 11-5 Chiefs were +18 in turnovers LY, after 2-14 Chiefs were -24 year before; regression is expected. Since ‘07, KC is 5-19-1 vs. spread as home fave; Reid covered once in his last eight home openers, Chiefs are 1-6-1 vs. spread in their last eight. Tennessee covered five of its last seven road openers. Under is 18-3-2 in Chiefs’ last 23 home openers, 14-3 in Titans’ last 17 road openers. Chiefs (-2.5) won 26-17 at Tennessee LY, scoring TD on special teams fumble, scoring only one TD, three FG’s on seven drives in Titan red zone.

Patriots @ Dolphins-- Miami installed new, faster offense this offseason; Pats played Eagles in preseason, who run that very offense. Dolphins lost seven of last eight series games, upsetting Pats 24-20 (+1) in Week 15 LY; NE won five of last seven visits here, with four of five wins by 14+ points. Patriots won first meeting nine of last ten years; they’re 6-2 in last eight road openers (5-3 vs. spread). Dolphins lost six of last eight openers, but are 2-0 in home openers under Philbin and 5-1-1 vs. spread as home dogs. Miami is 9-14-1 vs spread in division games the last four years. Over last decade, Patriots are 16-8-2 as road favorite in division games, 57-31-5 as single digit favorite overall. Fish’ last five home openers went over total.

Panthers @ Buccaneers-- Carolina started last five seasons 0-1; they scored 10-7 points in losing last two season openers. Panthers lost last five road openers (0-5 vs. spread)- they were favored last two years. Lovie Smith went 29-19 his last three years coaching Bears; playoff losses got him fired,, but he is a huge upgrade at HC for Bucs, who had only one TD on 20 drives vs. Carolina LY, with three TO’s, eight 3/outs. Panthers swept series 31-13/27-6, outrushing Bucs 282-114. Carolina won three of its last five visits here. Bucs covered three of last four games as home dog in HO’s; they’re 5-4 SU in last nine. Five of last six Carolina road openers went over total.

49ers @ Cowboys-- 49ers are 19-5-2 as single digit favorite under Harbaugh, 10-4 as road favorites, 3-0 in season openers, winning by 16-8-6 points, while scoring 33-30-34 points. Dallas usually opens on road; since ‘88, they’re 5-3 SU when season opener is at home- they won last three home openers by total of 13 points. Cowboys covered last five tries as dog in home opener, but last such game was in ‘02. Since ‘06, Dallas is 6-2 as home underdog, 4-1 under Garrett. Cowboys won last three series games by 3-13-3 points, but haven’t met since ‘11, Harbaugh’s second game with 49ers. Five of last seven Dallas home openers went over total. 49ers are just 6-7-1 vs spread on carpet under Harbaugh.

Colts @ Broncos-- Denver was 6-0 LY before losing 39-33 at Indy in Week 7; they had 12 penalties, three turnovers (-2) and ran for just 64 yards in game they trailed 26-14 at half. Colts had 11-yard edge in field position; only one of their four TD’s was on drive longer than 50 yards. Indy lost three of last four road openers, with all three losses by 10+ points; the last six years, they’re 0-6 vs. spread in Week 1 games. Manning is 9-5 vs spread in home openers; Denver is 22-3 SU in last 25 home openers, covering four of last five; this figures to be emotional day, with declining health of Bronco owner Bowlen. Over is 5-1-1 in Denver’s last seven Mile High openers.

Giants @ Lions--Giants started 0-1 last three years; they’re lost three of last four road openers, with 12 of last 14 going over total. Detroit lost six of last seven games LY, one of which was 23-20 (-9) Week 16 debacle to Giants; Big Blue’s two TD’s were on 49-yard drive and defensive score. Lions outrushed them 148-41, still lost; that doesn’t happen a lot. Big Blue won last three series games by total of 17 points; they won last five visits to Motor City. Lions have new coaches, Giants have new offense that struggled to gel in preseason. Lions won last three home openers, scoring 36.3 ppg; they’re 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine HO’s, with last four going over total. Last three years, Giants are 11-6 as road underdogs.

Chargers @ Cardinals-- San Diego is 9-3 in last dozen series games, winning last three by 8-7-31 points; they won three of four visits here, but haven’t been in desert since ’02, before dome opened. Chargers are 8-3-1 as road underdogs last two years; they covered three of four vs. NFC LY, after being 0-8 previous two seasons. Bolts won four of last five Week 1 road openers; five of their last seven road openers went over total. Cardinals were 5-1-1 as favorites in Arians’ first year, after covering only five of previous 20 games when favored. Arizona won six of last seven home openers (5-2 vs. spread); they‘re 6-1-1 vs. spread in Week 1 last eight years. Why did these teams meet in preseason LAST WEEK?

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24928 Followers:33
09/01/2014 02:49 PM

NFL

Week 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, September 4

8:30 PM
GREEN BAY vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games
Seattle is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games at home
Seattle is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay


Sunday, September 7

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games at home
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. MIAMI
New England is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
New England is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Miami is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing New England

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. HOUSTON
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
Houston is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. KANSAS CITY
Tennessee is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Tennessee is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Kansas City is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Tennessee

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games when playing Oakland

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. PITTSBURGH
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. PHILADELPHIA
Jacksonville is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games
Jacksonville is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games
Philadelphia is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. CHICAGO
Buffalo is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 7 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
St. Louis is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 9 of St. Louis's last 13 games at home

4:25 PM
CAROLINA vs. TAMPA BAY
Carolina is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 12 games

4:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. DALLAS
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Dallas's last 12 games at home

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing Denver
Denver is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games at home
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games


Monday, September 8

7:10 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DETROIT
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Detroit is 3-9 SU in their last 12 games when playing NY Giants

10:20 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24928 Followers:33
09/01/2014 02:50 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 1

Thursday, September 4

Green Bay at Seattle, 8:30 ET
Green Bay: 2-7 ATS as an underdog
Seattle: 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24928 Followers:33
09/01/2014 02:50 PM

NFL Opening Line Report: Books staying high on Seahawks

With Labor Day weekend drawing to a close, it’s a sure sign of two things: Summer is pretty much finished, and the NFL is just getting started.

While Week 1 odds have been on the board since the spring, action hasn't really heated up until recently. And we’ve got some sterling Week 1 matchups right out of the gate, most notably in the Thursday night opener, with the Green Bay Packers traveling to Seattle to take on the Super Bowl champion Seahawks in the primetime spotlight.

The opening number at most sportsbooks was Seahawks -5 to -6. Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag said his place stuck with the higher line.

“We opened with the Seahawks a solid 6-point home favorite, and we haven’t moved off that number,” Stewart tells Covers. “This game has seen great two-way action, and from all indications, we won’t have to move off this number, but maybe we’ll move the juice from time to time.”

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (-7)

The defending AFC champion Broncos hope to bounce back from an embarrassing Super Bowl performance and ride Peyton Manning’s arm to another big year.

The line opened at Denver -7 back in April and is still ranging from 7 to 7.5 at most books. CarbonSports opened at 7.5 and hasn’t been nudged in either direction for the Sunday night contest.

“While we saw decent Colts money come in early, all the late money has been on the Broncos,” Stewart says. “The reason for that late money: the Broncos and Peyton Manning have looked very sharp in the preseason and bettors believe they’ll carry that into Week 1 of the regular season. We tend to agree with those bettors and have been shading our line toward the Broncos.”

San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Dallas Cowboys

The Niners are having all sorts of off-the-field issues, with linebacker Aldon Smith getting smacked with a nine-game suspension last week for violating the league’s personal conduct policy, followed by defensive lineman Ray McDonald’s arrest early Sunday morning on domestic violence charges.

But San Francisco is holding steady as 5.5-point chalk for Sunday afternoon’s tilt at AT&T Stadium. The line for this game was among those taking the biggest jump since numbers went up in April.

“San Francisco opened a solid 3-point road favorite, and that number proved to be way too short as all the early action was on the 49ers,” Stewart says. “We didn’t stay on three very long - it was probably one of our very first moves when we hung Week 1 lines back in April.

“We went to 3.5 and eventually blew through four and got to 4.5. That’s an enormous move for an NFL game, but with news coming out about Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee going down for the year, we wanted to get aggressive with this game. As more and more money showed for the 49ers, we eventually got to 49ers -6, which is our current number.”

New England Patriots (-4.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Pats were a banged-up team with not much of a defense last season, yet came up just a game short of the Super Bowl.

With stud tight end Rob Gronkowski back, along with a better defense that includes a much improved secondary, Stewart said the money is piling in on New England. That’s taken a line that started at Pats -3 and pushed it to -4.5 in most spots, and even -5 at CarbonSports, for Sunday’s game.

“We got to -3.5 in early June, by late July we got to -4.5 and eventually to Patriots -5,” Stewart says. “So far, 80 percent of the action is on the Pats. Since we got to -5, we did book some sharp action on the Dolphins. But it wasn’t enough to move off (-5). Our exposure on the Patriots is significant enough to where we definitely want to write more action on the Dolphins, regardless of if it’s sharp.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: