cnotes Posts:27312 Followers:33
On 08/25/2014 01:02 PM in NCAA Football

Cnote's College Footall Best Bets For August-Sept- Conference Recaps, Trends, Stats!

NCAAF Team Sites
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AIR FORCE- www.airforcesports.com
AKRON- www.gozips.com
ALABAMA- www.rolltide.com
ALA-BIRM- www.uabsports.com
ARIZONA- www.arizonaathletics.com
ARIZ. ST.- www.sundevils.com
ARKANSAS- www.hogwired.com
ARKANSAS ST- www.asuindians.com
ARMY- www.goarmysports.com
AUBURN- www.auburntigers.com
BALL STATE- www.ballstatesports.com
BAYLOR- www.baylorbears.com
BOISE ST.- www.broncosports.com
BOSTON COLLEGE- www.bceagles.com
BOWLING GREEN- www.bgsufalcons.com
BYU- www.byucougers.com
BUFFALO- www.ubathletics.buffalo.edu
CAL- www.calbears.com
C. FLORIDA- www.ucfathletics.com
C. MICH- www.cmuchippewas.com
CINCY- www.ucbearcats.com
CLEMSON- www.clemsontigers.com
COLORADO- www.cubuffs.com
COLO ST. - www.csurams.com
CONN- www.uconnhuskies.com
DUKE- www.goduke.com
E. CAR.- www.ecupirates.com
E. MICH- www.emueagles.com
FLORIDA- www.gatorzone.com
FLORIDA ATL.- www.fausports.com
FLORIDA INT. - www.flusports.com
FLORIDA ST. - www.seminoles.com
FRESNO ST. - www.gobulldogs.com
GEORGIA- www.georgiadogs.com
GEORGIA TECH- www.ramblinwreck.com
HAWAII- www.uhathletics.hawaii.edu
HOUSTON- www.uhcougers.com
IDAHO- www.uiathletics.com
ILLINI- www.fightingillini.com
INDIANA- www.iuhoosiers.com
IOWA- www.hawkeyesports.com
IOWA ST. - www.cyclones.com
KANSAS- www.kuathletics.com
KANSAS ST. - www.k-statesports.com
KENT ST. - www.kentstatesports.com
KENTUCKY- www.ukathletics.com
LOUIS. LAFAYETTE- www.ragincajuns.com
LOUIS. MONROE- www.ulmathletics.com
LSU- www.LSUsports.com
LOUIS. TECH - www.latechsports.com
LOUISVILLE- www.uoflsports.com
MARSHALL- www.herdzone.com
MARYLAND- www.umterps.com
MEMPHIS - www.gotigersgo.com
MIAMI FL. - www.hurricanesports.com
MIAMI OHIO- www.muredhawks.com
MICHIGAN- www.mgoblue.com
MICH ST- www.msuspartans.com
MIDD TENN ST. - www.goblueraiders.com
MINNESOTA- www.gophersports.com
MISSISSIPPI- www.olemisssports.com
MISS. STATE- www.mstateathletics.com
MISSOURI- www.mutigers.com
NAVY- www.navysports.com
NEBRASKA- www.huskers.com
NEVADA- www.nevadawolfpack.com
NEW MEXICO- www.golobos.com
NEW MEXICO ST- www.nmstatesports.com
NORTH CAROLINA- www.tarheelblue.com
NC STATE- www.gopack.com
NO. TEXAS- www.meangreensports.com
NO. ILLINOIS- www.niuhuskies.com
NORTHWESTERN- www.nusports.com
NOTRE DAME- www.und.com
OHIO ST. - www.ohiostatebuckeyes.com
OHIO U. - www.ohiobobcats.com
OKLAHOMA- www.soonersports.com
OKLA ST- www.okstate.com
OREGON- www.goducks.com
OREGON ST- www.osubeavers.com
PENN ST.- www.gopsusports.com
PITT- www.pittsburghpanthers.com
PURDUE- www.purduesports.com
RICE- www.riceowls.com
RUTGERS- www.scarletknights.com/football
SDSU- www.goaztecs.com
SAN JOSE ST- www.sjsuspartons.com
SMU- www.smumustangs.com
SOUTH CAROLINA - www.uscsports.com
SOUTH FLORIDA- www.gobulls.usf.edu
SOUTHERN CAL - www.usctrojans.com
SO. MISS- www.southernmiss.com
STANFORD- www.gostanford.com
SYRACUSE- www.suathletics.com
TCU- www.gofrogs.com
TEMPLE- www.owlsports.com
TENNESSEE- www.utsports.com
TEXAS- www.texassports.com
TEXAS AM- www.aggiesports.com
TEXAS EL PASO - www.utepathletics.com
TEXAS TECH- www.texastech.com
TOLEDO- www.utrockets.com
TROY- www.troytrojans.com
TULANE- www.tulanegreenwave.com
TULSA- www.tulsahurricane.com
UCLA- www.uclabruins.com
UNLV- www.unlvrebels.com
UTAH- www.utahutes.com
UTAH ST. www.utahstateaggies.com
VANDY- www.vucommodores.com
VIRGINIA- www.virginiasports.com
V. TECH- www.hokiesports.com
WAKE FOREST- www.wakeforestsports.com
WASHINGTON- www.gohuskies.com
WASH ST. - www.wsucougars.com
WEST VIRGINIA- www.wvu.edu/~sports
W. MICH- www.wmubroncos.com
WISKY- www.uwbadgers.com
WYOMING- www.wyomingathletics.com

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27312 Followers:33
08/25/2014 01:03 PM

Big 12 college football betting preview: Sooners class of the conference

The Big 12 appears to be Oklahoma’s to lose – according to the futures odds. But don’t tell that to the Sooners’ Texas rivals in Waco and Austin.

Oklahoma Sooners (2013: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: -200
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Sooners: The overwhelming favorites to win the conference are also legitimate National Championship contenders. Oklahoma gets all of its toughest games at home this season, and have the best defense in the Big 12 - one of the best stop units in all of college football.

Why not bet the Sooners: Despite Trevor Knight’s breakout performance in the Sugar Bowl win over Alabama, the Sooners need to get consistent play from the quarterback position. Knight needs to stay healthy (knee). Keep in mind he’s also inexperienced with just five collegiate starts. Oklahoma will likely be favored in every game this season.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5


Baylor Bears (2013: 11-2 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +240
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Bears: Baylor’s offense is dynamic and virtually unstoppable. Quarterback Bryce Petty returns as do most of the skill players from last year’s nation-leading offense that averaged 52.4 points and 618.8 yards per game. Baylor head coach Art Briles has led the Bears to a 30-10 record over the last three seasons.

Why not bet the Bears: Defense. Baylor’s stop unit improved significantly last season, allowing just 23.5 points and 360 yards per game. The Bears gave up 37.2 points and 502 yards per game the season before. They return just four defensive starters this season, so they will certainly regress from their 2013 numbers.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5


Texas Longhorns (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +550
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Longhorns: The Mack Brown era is over as Charlie Strong comes over from Louisville. Texas was stale under Brown and the coaching change is definitely a positive. With 15 returning starters, Strong has the pieces to make Texas relevant again this season. The Longhorns’ defense will keep them competitive in every game.

Why not bet the Longhorns: The quarterback position is a major concern. Texas has rotated quarterbacks in and out over the past few seasons and the offense was never able to get into a rhythm and be consistent. Quarterback David Ash must stay healthy for Texas to win but as of right now, his injury concerns make the Longhorns a wild card.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Kansas State Wildcats (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +900
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Wildcats: Kansas State has a lot of momentum after winning six of its last seven games to closeout 2013. The Wildcats will have a potent offense with QB Jake Waters and all of the playmakers returning. Bill Snyder rarely gets out-coached and with lesser expectations this season, Kansas State will surprise.

Why not bet the Wildcats: The Wildcats return just five starters on defense and they play a tough schedule in 2014. Kansas State will play five Big 12 road games, including trips to Oklahoma, TCU, and Baylor. It also hosts Auburn in mid-September. The defense must replace standouts Ty Zimmerman and Blake Slaughter.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Oklahoma State Cowboys (2013: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +900
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Cowboys: Oklahoma State has been consistent under head coach Mike Gundy. The Cowboys have won eight or more games in six consecutive seasons. The quarterback position is finally stable with J.W. Walsh, and aside from their season opener versus Florida State, the Cowboys’ schedule is manageable until November when they close with the Top 4 choices in the Big 12.

Why not bet the Cowboys: The team returns just eight total starters and its road schedule is brutal in conference play. Trips to TCU, Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma will prove to be too much for the Cowboys to overcome, especially late in the season when injuries and fatigue take their toll.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5


TCU Horned Frogs (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1200
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Horned Frogs: TCU’s defense returns nine starters from a unit that was one of the best in the Big 12 last season. The Horned Frogs will be even better this season with experience, especially since their best players return. Despite eight losses in 2013, TCU was competitive in six of those games while losing by 10 points or less.

Why not bet the Horned Frogs: TCU’s offense is undergoing changes. The Horned Frogs will have a new system under co-offensive coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie. They want to speed things up with an up-tempo attack, but implementing new systems takes time. TCU’s season hinges on its offense.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5


Texas Tech Red Raiders (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2800
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Red Raiders: Kliff Kingsbury’s first season as head coach was successful. Texas Tech won eight games, including a win over Arizona State in the Holiday Bowl. The Red Raiders should build off that success, especially their offense which returns nine starters.

Why not bet the Red Raiders: Texas Tech closed the 2013 regular season by losing five straight games. The defense allowed 38 points or more in every one of those games. The defensive line is inexperienced with JuCo transfers and the overall youth on defense will limit Texas Tech’s season.

Season win total pick: Under 6.5


West Virginia Mountaineers (2013: 4-8 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Mountaineers: Dana Holgorsen’s offensive system has proven to work, but last season was a disaster (26.3 ppg). Things should be much improved in Morgantown in 2014. Quarterback Clint Trickett returns along with plenty of skill players, so the offense should put up better numbers this season.

Why not bet the Mountaineers: West Virginia plays one of the toughest schedules in the country and it’s going to be extremely difficult for WVU to finish with a winning record. The Mountaineers open with Alabama in Atlanta and then face Oklahoma, Baylor, TCU, Texas, and Kansas State over a 10-week stretch.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5


Iowa State Cyclones (2013: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Cyclones: Iowa State has a lot of positives working in its favor. Expectations are extremely low in Ames, so the Cyclones may catch some teams by surprise. The offense is in “remodeling mode” according to new coordinator Mark Mangino. Iowa State has 15 returning starters and its toughest games are at home. Five of its nine losses last season came by eight points or less.

Why not bet the Cyclones: The Cyclones have leveled off under head coach Paul Rhoads. In his first four years, they averaged six wins per season. They bottomed out at 3-9 in 2013. The talent is thin at Iowa State and its conference record will be poor once again.

Season win total pick: Over 3.5


Kansas Jayhawks (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +15000
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Jayhawks: Kansas returns 17 starters this season - the most in the Charlie Weis era. After winning just one game in his first year, Weis was able to get three wins out of the Jayhawks last season. Another step forward isn’t out of the question, especially with an experienced team.

Why not bet the Jayhawks: The Jayhawks have been embarrassingly bad on offense the last two years. They averaged just 18.3 points per game in 2012 and 15.3 points per game in 2013. The Big 12 has some strong defensive teams and unless Kansas’ offense improves dramatically, they’ll finish in the cellar once again in 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27312 Followers:33
08/25/2014 01:04 PM

AAC college football betting preview: Big difference between top and bottom

The American Athletic Conference goes through a shakeup in its second season. The cream of the crop should separate itself fairly early in the campaign with some true bottom-feeders in the mix.

Covers Expert Sean Murphy looks at all 11 AAC teams and give season win total picks for each heading into the 2014 campaign.

Central Florida Knights (2013: 12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Knights: This is where depth pays off. Yes, the Knights lose significant talent from last year's squad, including QB Blake Bortles. But the cupboard is by no means bare. George O'Leary has built this program to last,and the Knights should find themselves at the top of the AAC heap if everything goes according to plan in 2014.

Why not bet the Knights: After a dominant 2013 campaign, the Knights are on virtually every bettor's radar and that could mean they take a hit in the value department this season. In addition to Bortles departure, UCF loses a 1,100-yard rusher and three all-conference offensive linemen.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Cincinnati Bearcats (2013: 9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Bearcats: After getting off to a miserable start in 2013, the Bearcats will be eager to start on the right foot this year. The schedule should allow for that with three of their first four games coming at home, against beatable opponents (the lone road game comes at Ohio State). Expectations aren't all that high this year and that could be a good thing.

Why not bet the Bearcats: The quarterback position remains a big question mark and that's certainly not a positive. Gunner Kiel appears likely to take over the reins, but how the Notre Dame transfer will fit in this offense remains to be seen. Cincy's defense held up well a year ago, but that had a lot to do with its rather weak schedule.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5


Connecticut Huskies (2013: 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Huskies: The Paul Pasqualoni era is fading in the rear-view mirror in Storrs. Forty-one year old Bob Diaco takes over the team and things can only get better, right? After finishing last season on a high note, and with plenty of returning talent, the Huskies could make some noise - provided they can catch a few breaks here in 2014.

Why not bet the Huskies: Experience isn't everything. This was a bad football team a year ago, so it remains to be seen whether the right pieces are in place. The defense looks good on paper but can it hold up if the offense isn't able to consistently sustain drives?

Season win total pick: Over 3.5


Houston Cougars (2013: 8-5 SU, 10-3 ATS)

Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Cougars: Houston is loaded with playmakers all over the field and with QB John O'Korn back in the fold after an encouraging 2013 campaign, the sky is the limit for this team offensively. The defense is loaded with returnees that are comfortable with the 4-3 scheme that will once again be employed.

Why not bet the Cougars: Simply put, the Cougars were one of the best bets in the entire nation last year - a feat that teams are rarely able to repeat. The betting marketplace will likely catch up with Houston in 2014. Will the offense be able to mix things up enough to keep defenses honest?

Season win total pick: Under 8.5


Tulane Green Wave (2013: 7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Green Wave: Tulane suddenly has a little momentum in its corner after reaching a bowl game last season. Head coach Curtis Johnson has turned this program around and will have his players believing that last year was no fluke.

Why not bet the Green Wave: Losing WR Ryan Grant hurts immensely. Not only is Grant gone, but there's no sure thing at quarterback. Defensively, the Green Wave always seem to be facing an uphill battle and 2014 should be no different.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5


Memphis Tigers (2013: 3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Tigers: The rebuild continues in Memphis. While it wasn't apparent on paper, the Tigers did make some positive gains in 2013, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. With a wealth of returning talent, the potential is there for Memphis to lean even more on that defense this year.

Why not bet the Tigers: There are too many question marks on offense, not just at the quarterback position, but all over the field. Maybe this is the year we start to see progress. But I believe too much is going to be asked of the Tigers ground game and they simply don't have the horses to thrive in that regard.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5


East Carolina Pirates (2013: 10-3 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Pirates: For those that have followed this program in recent years, it should come as no surprise that the offense will once again pave the way to any success. The duo of QB Shane Carden and WR Justin Hardy will be one to watch throughout the 2014 campaign.

Why not bet the Pirates: A defense that is bad at the best of times could be even worse in 2014, with only four returning starters. It’s one thing to survive on offense alone in Conference-USA, but doing so in the AAC might be a little tougher. Off a 10-win season, the Pirates won't be flying under the radar.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5


South Florida Bulls (2013: 2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Season win total: 5

Why bet the Bulls: Don't be fooled by last year's poor record, this is a program that is headed in the right direction under the guidance of Willie Taggart. The Bulls played their best football near the end of last season and have a roster loaded with players ready to take a big leap forward in 2014.

Why not bet the Bulls: USF is probably still a year or two away from contending for a bowl. Mike White will likely be the man for the job under center and, while he showed flashes of brilliance a year ago, he's not the type of quarterback that can carry a team.

Season win total pick: Over 5


SMU Mustangs (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Season win total: 4

Why bet the Mustangs: After a truly mediocre 2013 campaign, the Mustangs aren't going to grab much attention from bettors, and that's not a bad thing. June Jones has the personnel in place to get the offense humming again, even with the departure of QB Garrett Gilbert.

Why not bet the Mustangs: SMU's schedule can't get much tougher, opening with back-to-back road games and closing with two of three away from home. The Mustangs first two home games will come against Texas A&M and TCU. They're at least a year away from a breakout campaign.

Season win total pick: Over 4


Temple Owls (2013: 2-10 SU, 8-4 ATS)

Season win total: 2.5

Why bet the Owls: Quarterback P.J. Walker will only get better after showing plenty of potential in 2013. His receiving corps should be improved while the run game will remain the strength of this offense. As bad as the Owls were a year ago, they still posted a solid ATS record and a similar storyline could unfold this season.

Why not bet the Owls: I hate to oversimplify things, but the bottom line is that the Owls aren’t going to win many games. If you like hoping and praying for backdoor covers, by all means, get behind the Owls. But expectations are low for a reason again this year.

Season win total pick: Under 2.5


Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2013: 3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Hurricane: The defense. It's hard to believe, but this program has no choice but to hang its hat on its defense - the polar opposite of what we've been accustomed to seeing from the Golden Hurricane. After a down season, improvement should be in order with the pedigree for success firmly in place in Tulsa.

Why not bet the Hurricane: The offense. After going through some serious growing pains in 2013, there's no reason to expect an immediate rebound in 2014. Losing three offensive linemen and two running backs will further stall the progress of this unit and ultimately keep the Hurricane from breaking through.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27312 Followers:33
08/25/2014 01:04 PM

Independents college football betting preview: Golson golden for Notre Dame?

It’s not hard to predict where the four FBS independents will end up at the conclusion of the regular season. Three look like a lock for bowl berths, albeit none of the four-team playoff variety. The other looks like it will once again finish nowhere near bowl contention. Either way, it should be an interesting year with both new and familiar faces amongst the quartet.

Army Black Knights (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Black Knights: New head coach Jeff Monken hopes to cure what has ailed Army for almost two decades. In four years at Georgia Southern, Monken didn’t know a losing season. On three of those four occasions, his program reached double-digits in the win column. He brings with him the triple-option offense, which he learned at GSU under Paul Johnson. Monken will have a pair of impressive backfield runners in Terry Baggett and Larry Dixon to implement his system. At receiver, the talented Xavier Moss caught 35 passes for 463 yards last season. And no, Monken is not afraid to air it out every once in a while.

Why not bet the Black Knights: Army went 7-6 in 2010 for its only winning season since 1996. It has won a grand total of eight games the past three years and in 13 of its last 16 campaigns it has won no more than three games. A dreadful defense in 2013 gave up at least 21 points in all nine of the Black Knights’ losses, including at least 33 points in seven of the nine. The coaching regime changed, which should be a good thing in the long run but does not bode well for the immediate future as the program looks to establish a new identity.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5


Brigham Young Cougars (2013: 8-5 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Cougars: BYU has posted eight straight winning seasons and hasn’t had a single losing record since Bronco Mendenhall took over in 2005. The Cougars’ running attack should be lethal this year. They return all five starters on the offensive line, quarterback Taysom Hill is one of the nation’s most dangerous dual threats, and running back Jamal Williams is coming off a 2013 campaign in which he rushed for 1,202 yards and seven touchdowns while averaging 5.9 yards per carry.

Why not bet the Cougars: Their experienced backfield notwithstanding, the Cougars have some rebuilding - or reloading - to do. The top three wide receivers from 2013, including all-time leading receiver Cody Hoffman, graduated. Mitch Mathews (23 catches, 397 yards) is their top returnee in that department. On the defensive side of the ball, BYU lost starting linebackers Uani Unga, Tyler Beck and second-round NFL Draft pick Kyle Van Noy. As for the schedule, the Cougars will pay visits to Texas, Central Florida, Boise State, and California.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5


Navy Midshipmen (2013: 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS)

Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Midshipmen: Navy has been one of the most consistent programs in college football, with 10 winning seasons in its last 11 campaigns and borderline domination of its fellow service academies during this stretch. The team’s triple-option offense racked up 33.5 points and 411.3 yards per game last year and returns most of its key pieces, including quarterback Keenan Reynolds. A rising junior, Reynolds is well on his way to becoming one of Navy’s greats. This is the Midshipmen’s final season as independents before moving to the American Athletic Conference in 2015. They will want to send a message to their new foes before joining the fray.

Why not bet the Midshipmen: Although Navy likes to keep the ball on the ground, losing its two best receivers from the 2013 squad doesn’t help. The team’s top two tacklers also graduated, leaving a doubly large void at middle linebacker. A tough early schedule will see the Midshipmen face Ohio State before visiting Temple, so a slow start record wise is a real possibility. They also host Notre Dame and go on the road to meet Air Force.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2013: 9-4 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

Season win total: 9.5 (over +160, under -210)

Why bet the Irish: Brian Kelly has won at least eight games in all four of his seasons at Notre Dame and he has exceeded that mark in each of the last two (12 in 2012, nine in 2013). Everett Golson, who led the Irish to the BCS National Championship Game two years ago, is back from academic suspension to replace Tommy Rees. Notre Dame also has highly-touted freshman Malik Zaire at its disposal in case Golson falters either on or off the field. The Irish don’t play a road game until October 18, so they should be able to get off to a fast start and build some confidence.

Why not bet the Irish: Golson is a year removed from competition and Zaire is obviously unproven at the college level. Even so, quarterback is nowhere near Notre Dame’s biggest question mark. The team will have to overcome a plethora of big losses. In addition to Rees, defensive tackles Louis Nix III and Stephon Tuitt, offensive linemen Zack Martin, inside linebacker Carlo Calabrese, and tight end Troy Niklas -to name just some - are all gone. The Irish once again have a tough schedule with few “gimme” games. Among the tests are vs. Michigan, Stanford, North Carolina, and Louisville, and at Florida State, Navy, and Southern Cal.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27312 Followers:33
08/25/2014 01:05 PM

ACC college football betting preview: Florida State best team, worst bet?

The ACC is one of the nation’s premier conferences, and it gets even stronger with the addition of Louisville this year. You would think a conference with 14 teams would be a little top heavy, but that’s not necessarily the case.

Covers Expert Sean Murphy says why you should bet or fade each ACC program and gives his season win total pick for the upcoming college football campaign:

Florida State Seminoles (2013: 14-0 SU, 11-3 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: -350
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Seminoles: The two-time defending ACC champions are the odds on favorite to win a third straight title, and for good reason. Even after winning a national title, the sky is still the limit for this program. They’re loaded with returning talent – including Heisman winner QB Jameis Winston - and the rest of the ACC should be at least a step behind.

Why not bet the Seminoles: Will there be any value left? The Noles bandwagon is about as full as it can get after a staggering 11-3 ATS campaign a year ago. They’ll be firmly entrenched on everyone’s radar, meaning we’ll see lofty pointspreads on a weekly basis.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5


Louisville Cardinals (2013: 12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +800
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Cardinals: The winning pedigree is firmly entrenched in this program and it enters the new season with a big chip on its shoulder, as it certainly draws its share of critics. The cupboard is never bare at Louisville and new head coach Bobby Petrino will have his squad motivated.

Why not bet the Cardinals: With a new coaching staff will come some growing pains. Losing do-everything QB Teddy Bridgewater certainly doesn’t help matters either, not to mention the fact that the Cards move from the AAC to the ACC.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5


Pittsburgh Panthers (2013: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +5,000
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Panthers: The Panthers got some of their swagger back last season and should pick up right where they left off in Year 2 of the Paul Chryst era. Expect hardnosed, physical football week in and week out as the Panthers won’t back down from anyone in the conference.

Why not bet the Panthers: Is there enough talent on board to compete with the big boys? The Panthers are at least a year away from making a big splash. Putting points on the board consistently could be an issue against the conference’s better defenses.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5


North Carolina State Wolfpack (2013: 3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +6,000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Wolfpack: Things are looking up for the Wolfpack and they should have an upset or two in them once ACC play begins. Injuries played a big role in their struggles a year ago. But as long as they can stay healthy, they can make a major leap and quite possibly win five or six games.

Why not bet the Wolfpack: Playing in the Atlantic Division will be the biggest detriment to Wolfpack success. There’s also the notion that maybe they don’t have the most durable pieces in place after last year’s injury-riddled campaign. Time will tell whether it was a fluke or reality.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5


Syracuse Orange (2013: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +6,000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Orange: Most are down on the Orange, even after they’ve reached a Bowl game in three of the last four years. The program will be a little more settled in the second year of the post-Doug Marrone era and another winning ATS mark is well within reach under the guidance of the underrated Scott Shafer.

Why not bet the Orange: There’s a talent gap between the Orange and the majority of the other teams in the ACC. Recruiting has certainly played a role over the years, as Syracuse simply isn’t the most attractive destination for most blue chip recruits. A few standouts will need to carry the load and that might be asking too much.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5


Boston College Eagles (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +5,000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Eagles: Few were paying much attention, but the Eagles enjoyed a nice bounce-back campaign a year ago and are poised to take another step forward in Steve Addazio’s second year at the helm. How many bettors will be interested in supporting the Eagles without star RB Andre Williams? The lighter the bandwagon, the more value we’ll likely see.

Why not bet the Eagles: It’s going to take some time for the winning culture to truly return to Chestnut Hill. The thinking is that we could see a letdown from the Eagles off a surprisingly strong 2013 season. A difficult schedule will undoubtedly play a significant role.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5


Clemson Tigers (2013: 11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +1,000
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Tigers: If Florida State slips up, Clemson will be right there to take over the ACC throne. The Tigers will once again field an elite squad, thanks to stellar recruiting in recent years. With a number of key pieces moving on to greener pastures, bettors might not be so quick to back the Tigers this year, providing some early season value.

Why not bet the Tigers: QB Tajh Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins won’t be easily replaced. Hopes remain high at the quarterback position, but as with most first-year starters, nothing is assured. The schedule starts tough with September road tests against Florida State and Georgia.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5


Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2013: 4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +17,500
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Demon Deacons: Wake Forest will need to hang its hat on its defense in 2014 and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. The Deacons boast one of the most underrated secondaries in the ACC and are more than serviceable up front. If the offense can pack any sort of punch, they’ll be able to improve on last year’s ATS mark.

Why not bet the Demon Deacons: This is still a program that has its work cut out for it personnel wise. Any success this year would be considered a bonus, as the Deacons are probably looking at another two or three years before they can make any sort of splash in an extremely tough conference.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5


Virginia Cavaliers (2013: 2-10 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +5,000
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Cavaliers: No one is expecting anything from the Cavaliers this season - much like last year when they fell just shy of a .500 mark against the spread. A similar tally is within reach in 2014, meaning there will be spots to back the Hoos. The defense is capable of keeping Virginia from being a complete embarrassment at the very least.

Why not bet the Cavaliers: There’s no question the Cavaliers are going to be an ACC bottom feeder this year, and probably next year as well. If you don’t have a high pain threshold, you’ll probably want to steer clear of a team that won’t put many points on the board on a weekly basis.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (2013: 7-6 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +1,500
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Yellow Jackets: This is a year for the Yellow Jackets to make a move, as the schedule affords them such an opportunity. Of their first 10 contests, only two will come against Top 30 teams from a year ago. I don’t mind supporting teams that bettors aren’t all that high on and Georgia Tech falls into that category in 2014.

Why not bet the Yellow Jackets: This is a team built on potential, but whether the players on the field can reach that high-water mark remains to be seen. There are still a lot of question marks up front on defense and the ACC is an awfully tough conference to work out issues in that department. Quarterback play has been an issue in recent years and that isn’t likely to change this season.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5


Duke Blue Devils (2013: 10-4 SU, 11-3 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +1,200
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Blue Devils: Duke’s schedule starts rather light, with four very winnable games right off the bat. In fact, it never really reached a fever pitch, meaning the potential is there for the Blue Devils to repeat last year’s 10-win performance. The offense should continue to roll along, with continuity where they need it most.

Why not bet the Blue Devils: The Blue Devils defense will continue to hold them back to a certain extent. Any slip ups by the offense won’t go unpunished, as this unit simply can’t afford to be overworked. A letdown is always a possibility off such an impressive 2013 campaign.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


North Carolina Tar Heels (2013: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +800
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Tar Heels: If any team has a chip on its shoulder in the ACC, the Tar Heels are it. They got off to a brutal start last season, but won when it mattered most and enter the new campaign with plenty of momentum after crushing Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl. Larry Fedora’s spread offense will be fun to watch, if not one of the nation’s most high-scoring units. Could be solid Over value with UNC.

Why not bet the Tar Heels: North Carolina’s defense remains a weakness and that’s a problem in the ACC. While the offense will be explosive, it isn’t without a few question marks. After an extended run of success, opponents will most definitely gunning for the Tar Heels in 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5


Miami Hurricanes (2013: 9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +350
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Hurricanes: Miami could be a frontrunner for the Coastal Division title as long as everything goes according to plan. After posting a subpar ATS mark last season, there’s reason to believe the Hurricanes will stay a little further beneath the radar and improve on that record. Roster turnover shouldn’t be a big issue with outstanding depth.

Why not bet the Hurricanes: The Hurricanes have seen their win total improve in each of the last three years. Turning that trick for a fourth consecutive season is a tall task to be sure. The quarterback position needs to be settled - never a good thing. Neither is replacing a pair of anchors on the offensive line.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5


Virginia Tech Hokies (2013: 8-5 SU, 4-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win ACC: +800
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Hokies: The Hokies have the element of surprise working for them coming off two bad seasons (by Blacksburg standards). Even without a proven quarterback, Virginia Tech is still capable of contending for the Coastal Division title. The defense could be downright nasty and if the Hokies catch a few breaks, they could shake up the ACC.

Why not bet the Hokies: The offense has too many question marks to mention. Logan Thomas had his share of issues, but he was better than anyone the Hokies have to work with heading into the 2014 season. The schedule gets tough in a hurry with a road date at Ohio State in Week 2 and a “tougher than it looks” home matchup against East Carolina the following week.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27312 Followers:33
08/25/2014 01:05 PM

Sun Belt college football betting preview: Little league holds big value

The Sun Belt looks like a four-team race for the title, but that means there’s big betting value outside of those contenders in college football’s tiniest conference.

UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (2013: 9-4 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +110
Season win total: 9

Why bet the Ragin’ Cajuns: UL Lafayette is the best team on paper in the Sun Belt coming into the 2014 season. The Ragin’ Cajuns return 17 starters, including quarterback Terrance Broadway, who put up big numbers last season. The offense will be potent once again after averaging 33.8 points per game in 2013. Their defense improved last season and they will move forward once again.

Why not bet the Ragin’ Cajuns: Despite returning 17 starters, UL Lafayette's best playmaker - Darryl Surgent - graduated. Surgent was a solid receiver and an exceptional return man, giving the Ragin’ Cajuns consistent good field position. Losing one skill guy shouldn’t be an issue, but Surgent was a difference maker and ULL will miss his presence.

Season win total pick: Over 9


South Alabama Jaguars (2013: 6-6 SU, 8-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +320
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Jaguars: South Alabama was much better than its 6-6 record last year. The Jaguars were a competitive bunch with five of their six losses coming by seven points or less. With 15 returning starters, South Alabama should have good fortune and win the close games. The Jaguars improved on both sides of the ball in 2013, so this team is on the upswing.

Why not bet the Jaguars: South Alabama’s schedule is brutal down the stretch as three of its last five games are on the road. Trips to Louisiana and Arkansas State in conference play, and a game at South Carolina will be difficult, especially if the Jaguars are fatigued or beset with injuries.

Season win total pick: Over 8


UL Monroe Warhawks (2013: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +450
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Warhawks: UL Monroe plays the quirky 3-3-5 defensive scheme and with nine starters back, the stop unit will be much improved. The Warhawks didn’t get a bowl invite last season despite winning six games, so they will play with a chip on their shoulder, especially since they return 15 starters in 2014.

Why not bet the Warhawks: The loss of quarterback Kolton Browning to graduation leaves UL Monroe with a big hole to fill in 2014. The schedule doesn’t help either as the Warhawks play three road games at SEC opponents and close the season by playing four of their last five games on the road.

Season win total pick: Under 7


Arkansas State Red Wolves (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +450
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Red Wolves: Arkansas State has been a consistent team over the last three seasons. It is 28-11 over its last 39 games, so ASU has developed a winning tradition in Jonesboro. The Red Wolves will have a strong defense that should keep them competitive.

Why not bet the Red Wolves: The Red Wolves return just four starters on offense and they will be playing for their fifth new coach in five years. Blake Anderson moves from offensive coordinator to head coach - a position he’s never held before. At some point, the coaching turnover has to catch up to Arkansas State and 2014 might be the year.

Season win total pick: Under 7


Troy Trojans (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,200
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Trojans: Troy’s offense projects to be explosive this season and as long as it gets consistent play from the quarterback position, the Trojans will be competitive. Their conference schedule is very kind and Troy should be able to take advantage of that, making its a sleeper in the Sun Belt.

Why not bet the Trojans: The Trojans defense has a lot to prove this year after four straight seasons of allowing more than 30 points per game. Troy’s team success hinges on the stop unit. Replacing QB Corey Robinson is also a major hurdle to overcome. He graduated as the Sun Belt’s all-time career leading passer.

Season win total pick: Over 6


Texas State Bobcats (2013: 6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,500
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Bobcats: The Bobcats offense has a very strong rushing attack that can eat clock while paying ball control. They return eight starters, including a ton of experience along the offensive line. Sophomore QB Tyler Jones got plenty of experience last season and natural improvement should occur in his second season.

Why not bet the Bobcats: The Texas State defense returns only four starters and the coaching situation has set it back. Coordinator John Thompson has coached at big-name schools, but he was hired just one week before spring practice. He will implement a 4-2-5 scheme but with inexperienced players, the Bobcats will struggle to stop opponents in 2014.

Season win total pick: Under 6


Georgia Southern Eagles (2013: 7-4 SU, 1-0 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5,500
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Eagles: Georgia Southern has finished the last four years with a winning record. The Eagles won at Florida last season and with 15 returning starters, their transition from FCS to FBS may be a bit easier than normal. Their talent fits in well with Sun Belt opponents.

Why not bet the Eagles: There’s a lot of change going on with Georgia Southern in 2014. Willie Fritz is the new head coach and he’s looking to open up the Eagles’ run-based offense. Depth is also an issue for Georgia Southern as it only has 63 scholarship players (FCS rules) compared to the 85 allowed for FBS teams. The Eagles also play seven of their 12 games on the road this season.

Season win total pick: Under 5


Idaho Vandals (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Vandals: Idaho is taking a step down in class by joining the Sun Belt. The Vandals can only improve off their one-win season and the return of 17 starters is definitely a plus. The lesser competition will give Idaho a major boost and it will be a much improved team in 2014.

Why not bet the Vandals: The Vandals finished dead last in the FBS in scoring defense last season, giving up 46.8 points per game. Things don’t get easier for Idaho as it is now in a conference known for explosive offenses. The Vandals’ offense also needs to step way up as they averaged just 18.2 points per game last year and only 15.8 ppg in 2012.

Season win total pick: Over 3


New Mexico State Aggies (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Aggies: New Mexico State will benefit from playing in the Sun Belt conference. Its schedule was brutal in head coach Doug Martin’s first season. But this year, the Aggies have manageable games that are winnable. The offense will surprise teams and the ability to score points will make New Mexico State better in 2014.

Why not bet the Aggies: Statistically, New Mexico State had the worst defense in the country in 2013. It allowed 44.6 points and 550 yards per game. It returns just five starters to that unit and must learn the new schemes under new defensive coordinator Larry Coyer.

Season win total pick: Over 3


Appalachian State Mountaineers (2013: 4-8 SU, 1-0 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +20,000
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Mountaineers: Appalachian State suffered its first losing season since 1993 after going just 4-8 in 2013. Winning programs tend to bounce back strong off a subpar season, so the Mountaineers will be hungry coming into 2014. With 15 returning starters, including nine on offense, Appalachian State will improve this season.

Why not bet the Mountaineers: The team is moving up from FCS to FBS and it is a young and inexperienced team. Head coach Scott Satterfield is in just his second season and he has little experience as well. Facing better competition every week will prove to be too much for the Mountaineers in their first season in FBS.

Season win total pick: Under 3


Georgia State Panthers (2013: 0-12 SU, 8-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +25,000
Season win total: 2

Why bet the Panthers: After going 0-12 in 2013, there’s nowhere to go but up for Georgia State. Despite going winless, the Panthers lost five games by 10 points or less so they were somewhat competitive and it showed in their ATS record.

Why not bet the Panthers: Georgia State hopes its second year in FBS play will be better. But with only nine returning starters, expectations are extremely low. The Panthers have a weak offense and a terrible defense and anything more than two wins would be considered a successful season in Atlanta.

Season win total pick: Under 2

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27312 Followers:33
08/25/2014 01:06 PM

Pac-12 college football betting preview: Ducks doomed by defense again?

The Pac-12 is a conference loaded with serious college football playoff contenders, Heisman Trophy front runners, and big-name head coaches.

Oregon is the obvious favorite, but Stanford, UCLA, and USC should be hot on the Ducks’ trail if they falter. Six teams look like bowl locks as many as 10 may end up being eligible.

Arizona Wildcats (2013: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2500
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Wildcats: Rich Rodriguez has guided the Wildcats to two straight 8-5 campaigns and is now dealing primarily with his players who are familiar with his system. Wide receiver Austin Hill will be back from a knee injury and the defense was vastly improved in RichRod’s second season.

Why not bet the Wildcats: Arizona was wildly inconsistent last season, with a 26-point drubbing of Oregon in between a home loss to Washington State and a 37-point setback at Arizona State. Quarterback B.J. Benker graduated. Included on the Wildcats’ schedule are games at Oregon and at UCLA.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5


Arizona State Sun Devils (2013: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +600
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Sun Devils: Arizona State surprised its way to the best record in the Pac-12 last season. Three-year starter Taylor Kelly returns at quarterback. The Sun Devils also return receivers Jaelen Strong and D.J. Foster and they get to play UCLA, Stanford, and Notre Dame at home.

Why not bet the Sun Devils: Although the offensive line is somewhat depleted, the main concern -by a mile - is defense. Nine of 11 starters are gone, including third-round draft pick Will Sutton (defensive tackle) and outside linebacker Carl Bradford. Arizona State’s defense already was not very good.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5


California Golden Bears (2013: 1-11 SU, 2-10 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 2.5

Why bet the Golden Bears: Head coach Sonny Dykes is widely regarded as an offensive genius. He simply did not have the horses at his disposal in 2013, his first year at the helm. Quarterback Jared Goff is a highly-touted freshman who will have little pressure on him after last season’s debacle at California.

Why not bet the Golden Bears: Still, Goff is a freshman and may not make a smooth transition to the college ranks without much help around him. The Golden Bears also have a new defensive coordinator, so this is obviously a transition period. Six of their opponents finished the 2013 season in the AP top 25.

Season win total pick: Under 2.5


Colorado Buffaloes (2013: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Buffaloes: Colorado improved in just about every statistical category under new head coach Mike MacIntyre in 2013, including wins (from one to four). Quarterback Sefo Liufau showed promise as a freshman and now has a year under his belt. Fellow sophomore Addison Gillam made 119 tackles at linebacker last season.

Why not bet the Buffaloes: Wide receiver Paul Richardson (83 catches, 1343 yards, 10 TDs) left early and was selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. The Buffaloes are still young and lacking depth. They are likely a year away from bowl contention, which will come when MacIntyre really has his own players in place.

Season win total pick: Under 4.5


Oregon Ducks (2013: 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +115
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Ducks: Somewhat unexpectedly, quarterback Marcus Mariota is back for another season. A legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate, Mariota will once again be supported by a loaded backfield. The Ducks now have a year of experience under head coach Mark Helfrich and they get to play both Michigan State and Stanford at home.

Why not bet the Ducks: As usual, it’s the defense that’s a question mark. For the first time in 15 years, the unit is being led by a new voice following the retirement of coordinator Nick Aliotti. Stanford ran all over Oregon in 2013 and a whole host of key contributors have departed what will be a depleted defensive line.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5


Oregon State Beavers (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3300
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Beavers: Like Oregon, Oregon State has a signal-caller who opted to forgo the NFL Draft. Sean Mannion is back for his senior year after breaking the Pac-12 single-season record with 4,662 passing yards. The Beavers’ defense returns seven starters. They play four of their last five games at home, including versus Oregon.

Why not bet the Beavers: Oregon State will be working with a new offensive coordinator (Danny Langsdorf left for a role with the New York Giants) and must deal with the loss of receiver Brandin Cooks (first-round pick of the New Orleans Saints). Defensive end Scott Crichton also left early and only one starter on the d-line returns.

Season win total pick: Under 6.5


Stanford Cardinal (2013: 11-3 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +500
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Cardinal: The Cardinal have won back-to-back Pac-12 championships and head coach David Shaw - 25-4 lifetime in conference games - is back on board. Quarterback Kevin Hogan and all of his aerial weapons are also returning. The defensive line will be stocked full of seniors.

Why not bet the Cardinal: Running backs Tyler Gaffney and Anthony Wilkerson graduated and a whole host of stalwarts on Stanford’s heralded offensive line are also gone. Shaw may be back, but the Cardinal saw their coordinators and various staff members raided by other programs. The schedule is brutal, with road dates at Notre Dame, Oregon, and UCLA.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5


UCLA Bruins (2013: 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +400
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Bruins: UCLA beat just about everyone it was supposed to last year, aside from a home loss to Arizona State, and is coming off a 42-12 drubbing of Virginia Tech in the Sun Bowl. Do-it-all quarterback Brett Hundley is back for his junior campaign. The Bruins entertain Oregon, USC, and Stanford all at home.

Why not bet the Bruins: Departures from last season’s squad include wide receiver Shaq Evans and linebacker Anthony Barr. Even beyond Barr, the Bruins were further depleted at linebacker and along the defensive line due to graduation. Defensive coordinator Lou Spanos also left for the NFL’s Tennessee Titans.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5


USC Trojans (2013: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +500
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Trojans: Lane Kiffin is out. It’s hard to say that is not a good thing. Steve Sarksian is in. The jury is still out, of course, but he at least has ties to USC (coach from 2005-2008) and did well there in the past. Quarterback Cody Kessler is back in an attempt to soften the blow of receiver Marqise Lee’s departure to the NFL.

Why not bet the Trojans: Sarksian is going to run things differently, starting with a much more up-tempo offense. A veteran offensive line would facilitate such a transition, but instead the head coach will be forced to almost complete rebuild up front. The Trojans lost three of their four best pass rushers from the 2013 squad.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Utah Utes (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +6600
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Utes: Utah should be in good shape at both running back and receiver. Bubba Poole will once again anchor the backfield and Devontae Booker was explosive in spring practice. Dres Anderson was the Pac-12’s leading receiver last season. The Utes will host both USC and Oregon.

Why not bet the Utes: Quarterback could be a position of strength, but right now it is a question mark. Travis Wilson was plagued by physical problems in 2013. The defense has also been depleted by injuries and star pass rusher Trevor Reilly (8.5 sacks last year) graduated.

Season win total pick: Over 4.5


Washington Huskies (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1400
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Huskies: Chris Petersen is one of the most well-respected coaches in the business after an extremely successful stint at Boise State. He takes over for Sarksian. Both the offensive and defensive lines remain largely intact. The Huskies play Stanford and UCLA at home, not to mention borderline guaranteed wins against visiting Georgia State and Illinois.

Why not bet the Huskies: Quarterback Keith Price is gone and it’s not clear who’s going to be taking over for Washington. The defense has major question marks in the secondary. Petersen may be a proven coach, but is some kind of transition period necessary before his program really takes off?

Season win total pick: Under 9.5


Washington State Cougars (2013: 6-7 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Cougars: The Cougars won nine total games in the four years prior to Mike Leach’s arrival. In just two seasons under the offensive mastermind, they have already matched that number. Leach has the program on the rise and it could continue with experience at two of the positions Leach loves most: QB (senior Connor Halliday) and wide receiver.

Why not bet the Cougars: Washington State was one of the most one-dimensional teams last season, averaging only 53.4 rushing yards per game. Improvement will not come easy with three of five offensive linemen having departed. Star safety Deone Bucannon is also gone.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27312 Followers:33
08/25/2014 01:07 PM

Big Ten college football betting preview: Value in middle of conference

The Big Ten may be a new-look conference with 14 teams now in the fold, but the end result should be a similar one with a few absolutely awful teams and a few that could contend for the national championship.

Urban Meyer and Ohio State are hoping to seize what Michigan State took from them last season: a conference title.

Illinois Fighting Illini (2013: 4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Fighting Illini: Tim Beckman is heading into his third year as head coach, which has generally been a good one for the top dog at Illinois. Big things are expected of Oklahoma State transfer Wes Lunt at quarterback. Lunt will have Josh Ferguson (779 rushing yards) back in the backfield.

Why not bet the Fighting Illini: The Illini lost three key receivers, so they are not riddled with veterans who can help Lunt ease into his new role. On the defensive side of the ball, Illinois recorded a total of 15 sacks last season. The unit returns eight starters, but that might not be a good thing.

Season win total pick: Under 4.5


Indiana Hoosiers (2013: 5-7 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Hoosiers: Head coach Kevin Wilson is likely to do away with a two-quarterback system, so Nate Sudfeld will be able to get into more of rhythm. Regardless, the Hoosiers’ offense will be led by running back Tevin Coleman. With a star back and what should be Indiana’s best offensive line in years, Sudfeld will be in position to succeed.

Why not bet the Hoosiers: The Hoosiers are consistently a juggernaut on offense and nothing short of a disaster on defense. They allowed more than 38 points and 500 yards per game last season. A new defensive coordinator is obviously a wise move, but a transition to a 3-4 scheme may take some time. Indiana has only six home games after having eight in 2013.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5


Iowa Hawkeyes (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,400
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Hawkeyes: Iowa is on the rise after a four-win improvement to 8-5 last season. The team returns quarterback Jake Rudock, leading rusher Mark Weisman, leading receiver Kevonte Martin-Manley, and stud left tackle Brandon Scherff. The Hawkeyes do not have Ohio State, Michigan, or Michigan State on the 2014 schedule.

Why not bet the Hawkeyes: Six starters from the 2013 squad are gone, including all three linebackers and all-conference cornerback B.J. Lowery. The departure of NFL third-round draft pick C.J. Fiedorowicz leaves a void at tight end.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Maryland Terrapins (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Terrapins: Maryland has improved from two wins to four wins to seven wins in three years under head coach Randy Edsall. His program will be inspired to get off to a fast start in a new conference and send a message to the Big Ten. Seven starters, including QB C.J. Brown, are back on offense and a whopping nine return on defense.

Why not bet the Terrapins: The ACC was bad last season outside of national champion Florida State, which may explain Maryland’s win total but also could leave the team unprepared for the spike in both competition and ruggedness in the Big Ten. The offensive line is somewhat depleted and the schedule includes dates with Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Michigan.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5


Michigan Wolverines (2013: 7-6 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +900
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Wolverines: Head coach Brady Hoke managed to hire offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier away from Alabama. Nussmeier will have Devin Gardner back in action for the quarterback’s last hurrah in Ann Arbor. On defense, the Wolverines return all three starting linebackers and welcome prized cornerback recruit Jabrill Peppers.

Why not bet the Wolverines: This is the youngest team in Hoke’s four-year tenure at Michigan and the program seems to be stuck in neutral following an 11-win campaign in its first season under Hoke. The Wolverines allowed a nation-worst 114 tackles for loss last year and star offensive tackle Taylor Lewan has left for the NFL.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5


Michigan State Spartans (2013: 13-1 SU, 9-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +400
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Spartans: Michigan State is coming off a dream season in which it won the Big Ten title and the Rose Bowl. Quarterback Connor Cook (MVP of both the conference champion and the bowl game) is back, as is running back Jeremy Langford. The Spartans also boast one of the best duos of defensive ends in the nation.

Why not bet the Spartans: Six starters have departed last year’s defensive unit and just one starting linebacker returns. It’s hard to see the Spartans finishing second and third in the nation in total and scoring defense, respectively, yet again. The schedule includes Ohio State, Michigan, and road trips to Oregon and Penn State.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5


Minnesota Golden Gophers (2013: 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5,000
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Golden Gophers: Minnesota has improved from three wins to six wins to eight wins in three years under head coach Jerry Kill. He is building his program with defense (25th in the nation in scoring defense last season), just like he did at Southern Illinois and Northern Illinois. Much of the offense returns, including leading rusher David Cobb.

Why not bet the Golden Gophers: Philip Nelson transferred and quarterback Mitch Leidner has minimal starting experience. Wide receiver is likely to be a problem following the departure of Derrick Engel. Kill’s health issues are also a concern. Minnesota has to play Michigan and Ohio State from the Big Ten East.

Season win total pick: Under 6.5


Nebraska Cornhuskers (2013: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +550
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Cornhuskers: Quarterback Tommy Armstrong has a year of experience under his belt and he has two of the top skill players in the conference at his disposal in running back Ameer Abdullah and receiver Kenny Bell. Defensive end Randy Gregory led the Big Ten in sacks last season.

Why not bet the Cornhuskers: Bo Pelini has been solid in six seasons, but he has not taken Nebraska to serious national prominence or even legitimate conference contention. The pressure is on in major way right now. Only three starters return on defense. A tough schedule includes games at Michigan State, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5


Northwestern Wildcats (2013: 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +4,000
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Wildcats: Northwestern went just 5-7 last season, but it lost two games in overtime and dropped two more by three points each. Seven starters return on defense and the offense once again features QB Trevor Siemian and RB Venric Mark. The Big Ten schedule lacks both Michigan State and Ohio State.

Why not bet the Wildcats: The Wildcats are coming off a bowl-less season after making it to the postseason in five consecutive years. An offensive line that was bad in 2013 doesn’t project to be much better. Injuries to the defense already mounted during the spring.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5


Ohio State Buckeyes (2013: 12-2 SU, 6-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: -110
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Buckeyes: Quarterback Braxton Miller is back and has speedsters all around him on offense. Urban Meyer has brought in another outstanding recruiting class that should be able to contribute immediately. Ohio State’s defensive line should be scary. The schedule is a friendly one aside from a road trip to Michigan State.

Why not bet the Buckeyes: Ohio State wrapped up its 2013 campaign on a two-game losing streak. Running back Carlos Hyde is gone. So are four starters on the offensive line. Linebacker Ryan Shazier has also headed to the NFL.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5


Penn State Nittany Lions (2013: 7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: N/A
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Nittany Lions: New head coach James Franklin was a proven winner at Vanderbilt. He inherits a rising star at quarterback in sophomore Christian Hackenberg. The road schedule is friendly and PSU gets to play both Ohio State and Michigan State at home.

Why not bet the Nittany Lions: Penn State is still under NCAA sanctions, so depth is a problem and the team is not eligible for the postseason. Franklin has a tough job ahead of him for those two reasons. The Nittany Lions also have only one healthy returning starter on the offensive line.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5


Purdue Boilermakers (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +25,000
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Boilermakers: Purdue has an experienced defense, led by Ryan Russell, Sean Robinson, and Joe Gilliam in the front seven. Track star Raheem Mostert is a home-run threat on offense. The schedule is a good one, with Michigan and Ohio State nowhere to be found and five home games to start.

Why not bet the Boilermakers: The Boilermakers were a horrendous 1-11 in their first year under head coach Darrell Hazell. Purdue’s best player in 2013 was punter Cody Webster. The offensive line remains a huge concern.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5


Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2013: 6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +20,000
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Scarlet Knights: Former Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen is in as offensive coordinator - a post at which he excelled with Georgia Tech. Rutgers returns all five starters on the offensive line. The running back duo of Paul James and Justin Goodwin is also back.

Why not bet the Scarlet Knights: The Scarlet Knights will be making a tough transition from the American Athletic Conference to the Big Ten. There is already a quarterback controversy with Gary Nova and Chris Laviano. Rutgers’ defense was historically bad last season (it also has a new coordinator on that side of the ball) and the schedule is the toughest in school history.

Season win total pick: Under 4.5


Wisconsin Badgers (2013: 9-4 SU, 9-3-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +450
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Badgers: With four starters on the offensive line returning and Melvin Gordon at running back, Wisconsin should boast one of the best ground games in the nation. The schedule is phenomenal. The Badgers’ toughest road game is at Iowa and they won’t face either Ohio State or Michigan State.

Why not bet the Badgers: Head coach Gary Andersen’s first season ended with a sour two-game losing streak. Personnel changes abound, with only a total of eight starters returning. Tanner McEvoy and Joel Stave are relative question marks at quarterback and the front seven on defense is 100 percent new.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27312 Followers:33
08/25/2014 01:08 PM

C-USA college football betting preview: Marshall mighty, but not smart money

Conference USA undergoes a facelift with three programs bailing for bigger and better things in the AAC and two new teams joining the ranks in 2014.

At the top of the C-USA sits Marshall, which is not only a big favorite to win the conference crown but also a sleeper Cinderella to sneak into the new four-team national title playoff system.

Marshall Thundering Herd (2013: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: -200
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Thundering Herd: Marshall is the clear-cut favorite in C-USA East this season, and the favorites to win the overall conference championship. The Thundering Herd return 14 starters, including quarterback Rakeem Cato. They play an extremely easy schedule and there’s a real possibility they go undefeated in 2014.

Why not bet the Thundering Herd: It’s no secret that Marshall will be very good this season, and you’ll have to pay a tax to bet it. The Thundering Herd may be double-digit favorites in every game and there will likely be a spot or two to fade Marshall as the pointspreads get inflated.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5


UTSA Roadrunners (2013: 7-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +300
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Roadrunners: UTSA returns one of the most experienced teams in the country with 20 starters coming back. The Roadrunners have won 15 games over the last two seasons and they are set to breakout in 2014. Head coach Larry Coker won a national championship at Miami and has a great shot of getting the Roadrunners to the C-USA title game.

Why not bet the Roadrunners: Despite 20 returning starters, UTSA does not return its quarterback. Eric Soza was a three-year starter and his loss leaves a major hole to fill. The Roadrunners need to find a suitable replacement, but that’s not a given with inexperienced players battling for the all important QB spot.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


North Texas Mean Green (2013: 9-4 SU, 10-3 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +500
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Mean Green: North Texas has a solid foundation with this being head coach Dan McCarney’s fourth year on the job. The Mean Green possess a strong offensive line and their ability to run the ball and control the clock may be enough to keep them competitive.

Why not bet the Mean Green: The team had a breakout season in 2013 when it went 9-4 and won the Heart of Dallas Bowl. But North Texas will be hard-pressed to repeat last year’s success as it returns just nine starters while playing a tough schedule with five of its final eight games on the road.

Season win total pick: Under 8


Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2013: 8-5 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +750
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Blue Raiders: Middle Tennessee has been a solid team over the last two years, winning eight games each season. It wouldn’t be a stretch for it to repeat that success in 2014, especially since it will have one of the best defenses in the conference.

Why not bet the Blue Raiders: Offense. MTU returns just five starters on offense and the quarterback situation is up for grabs. Head coach Rick Stockstill said he won’t name a starter until the Friday before the season opener and that doesn’t show much confidence in the players battling for the job.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5


Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (2013: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,000
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Hilltoppers: Western Kentucky’s offense projects to be explosive this season with eight starters returning, including QB Brandon Doughty. The new head coach is Jeff Brohm, who was the offensive coordinator last year, so the transition should be a bit smoother than normal.

Why not bet the Hilltoppers: The team is in flux right now with their third new head coach in three years and moving from the Sun Belt to C-USA. The defense also figures to regress sharply with just four starters returning. Western Kentucky lost conference players of the year on both offense and defense to graduation. That leaves the Hilltoppers without their best players on both sides of the ball.

Season win total pick: Under 7


Rice Owls (2013: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,500
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Owls: Rice won the C-USA title last season, so it comes into 2014 with a lot of momentum. The Owls return only 12 starters but they have an experienced roster overall. Rice’s best attribute is its running game and its ability to possess the ball and control the clock make the Owls very competitive in this conference.

Why not bet the Owls: It’s hard to envision Rice repeating the 10-win season of 2013. Rice’s defense also tends to get overwhelmed by strong offenses and that will be the case once again this season. The Owls also must keep QB Driphus Jackson healthy because if he goes down, the season is likely doomed.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5


Florida Atlantic Owls (2013: 6-6 SU, 9-3 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Owls: The team showed a tremendous amount of resiliency after its head coach and defensive coordinator quit midseason. Florida Atlantic won its last four games, so that was positive momentum heading into the offseason. Only 11 starters return, but the Owls could surprise in 2014.

Why not bet the Owls: Florida Atlantic has major question marks along its offensive and defensive lines coming into this season. The Owls lost a total of six starters on those two units, so the line of scrimmage is a big area of concern. The schedule is also tough with their strongest opponents all coming on the road.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5


Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Bulldogs: Louisiana Tech should improve in its second year under head coach Skip Holtz. The Bulldogs also have a new defensive coordinator, Manny Diaz, who did good things at Texas and Mississippi State. The stop unit projects to be very good this year and that makes Louisiana Tech a sleeper in C-USA.

Why not bet the Bulldogs: Last season, Louisiana Tech relied too heavily on running back Kenneth Dixon. The quarterbacks were terrible in 2013 and the Bulldogs must get better production from that unit. The early schedule is brutal with four of their first five games on the road, including non-conference trips to Oklahoma and Auburn.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5


Old Dominion Monarchs (2013: 8-4 SU, 3-3 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +7,500
Season win total: 5

Why bet the Monarchs: Old Dominion is making the jump from FCS to FBS this season. The Monarchs return 17 starters from their eight-win team of 2013, so a successful transition isn’t out of the question, especially since they possess a potent offense that has averaged 36.7 points per game or more over the last three seasons.

Why not bet the Monarchs: With the move up in divisions, Old Dominion will face stronger opponents week in and week out. And that’s not a good thing for a poor defense. Over the last two seasons, Old Dominion has allowed an average of 32.3 points and 436 yards of offense per game.

Season win total pick: Over 5


UTEP Miners (2013: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +15,000
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Miners: UTEP returns 15 starters in 2014 and the Miners will be in the second year of head coach Sean Kugler’s system. The team is built to be a physical running team and if the change in style takes another step forward, UTEP could be a litter better this season.

Why not bet the Miners: There’s still a lot of work ahead of UTEP, especially its implemented 4-2-5 defensive scheme. The defensive line is a key element for that type of defense, but the Miners will have three new starters along the line. The schedule will be difficult to navigate and while UTEP is better than last year, it may not be reflected in the win/loss column.

Season win total pick: Under 4


Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (2013: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +20,000
Season win total: 3

Why bet the Golden Eagles: There’s nowhere to go but up for Southern Miss in 2014 and big improvement is expected. The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and they will be in the second year of head coach Todd Monken’s system. Injuries decimated this team last season but if they stay healthy, they could pull a big upset or two.

Why not bet the Golden Eagles: Southern Miss is an ugly 1-23 SU over the last two years. The offense has been pitiful while only averaging 18.4 points per game and the defense has been a sieve, allowing 39.9 points per game during the long losing slump. The Golden Eagles are also minus-35 in turnover differential the last two years. It’s tough to back a losing team like Southern Miss until it shows improvement on the field.

Season win total pick: Over 3


UAB Blazers (2013: 2-10 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +25,000
Season win total: 2.5

Why bet the Blazers: Sometimes a new voice and a different perspective can change the fortune of a team, and that’s what UAB hopes will happen. The Blazers return 15 starters from a team that was competitive at times last season. UAB has underachieved in recent years, so maybe this is the year it can turn things around.

Why not bet the Blazers: UAB has won three games or less in each of the last three seasons. With new head coach Bill Clark short on experience (Jackson State last year), expectations are extremely low for the Blazers once again. Unless the defense shows significant improvement, UAB will repeat what it’s done over the last three years.

Season win total pick: Under 2.5


Florida International Golden Panthers (2013: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +30,000
Season win total: 2

Why bet the Golden Panthers: Florida International was embarrassingly bad in head coach Ron Turner’s first season. However, with 17 returning starters, the Panthers have the experience to improve in 2014. The early schedule is favorable with their first four games at home, including a pair of FCS opponents to begin the season.

Why not bet the Golden Panthers: They lost by an average of 27 points per game last season, so they were hardly competitive. Florida International’s offense averaged a ridiculously low 9.8 points per game in 2013 and they were shutout three times.

Season win total pick: Over 2

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27312 Followers:33
08/25/2014 01:08 PM

MAC college football betting preview: Coaching changes, QB swaps headline Mid-American

In the calendar years of 2011 and 2012, the MAC went a combined 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS in bowl games. It has since lost seven straight bowls (0-7 ATS), including five last season.

Bowling Green is the clear favorite to win the conference this time around while also giving the MAC its best chance for a bowl win. But there are plenty of other postseason contenders.

Akron Zips (2013: 5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Zips: The Zips won only six games combined in the four years prior to last season, when they suddenly improved enough for a five-win campaign. Quarterback Kyle Pohl and running back Jawon Chisholm are an experienced duo. The defensive will be inexperienced, but it’s hard to bet against veteran coordinator Chuck Amato.

Why not bet the Zips: Akron has stumbled through eight consecutive losing seasons. Both of last year’s starting cornerbacks are gone and only one starter on the defensive line returns. Three starting offensive linemen have departed, which could be problematic in front of a QB who has been error-prone in the past.

Season win total pick: Over 4.5.


Ball State Cardinals (2013: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,500
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Cardinals: Ball State has improved its season win total in every one of the four years with head coach Pete Lembo at the helm. The running game will be featured more prominently in 2014 and that’s a good thing. Jahwan Edwards is the school’s all-time leader in touchdown runs and needs just 697 yards to set Ball State’s rushing record.

Why not bet the Cardinals: Four-year starting quarterback Keith Wenning is gone. So too are three of the Cardinals’ top four receivers. Willie Snead (106 catches, 1,516 yards, 15 TDs) left for the NFL after his junior campaign. Only one starter on the defensive line is returning.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5


Bowling Green Falcons (2013: 10-4 SU, 10-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +125
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Falcons: Dino Babers is in as head coach after being at the helm of the leading offense in the FCS last season (Eastern Illinois averaged 589.5 YPG and 48.2 PPG). Junior quarterback Matt Johnson (3,467 passing yards, 25 touchdowns in 2013) should be one of the beneficiaries. Bowling Green’s defense led the MAC in fewest points allowed last season.

Why not bet the Falcons: The drawback of a first conference championship in 21 years is losing a head coach. Dave Clawson departed for Wake Forest. Three of the four starters in the secondary must be replaced. The interior of the defensive line is also a slight question mark.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5


Buffalo Bulls (2013: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Bulls: Although they lost a few key offensive players, the Bulls return eight starters on that side of the ball, including QB Joe Licata. The offensive line, which brings back all five of its starters, could be the best in the conference. A soft early-season schedule could foster confidence.

Why not bet the Bulls: Buffalo must try to replace MAC Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack and the school’s all-time leading rusher, Branden Oliver. Even beyond Mack, the front seven is depleted. Under head coach Jeff Quinn, the Bulls are 4-27 SU and 8-22-1 ATS against opponents with winning percentages greater than .250.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5.


Central Michigan Chippewas (2013: 6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3,000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Chippewas: The Chippewas open with a weak schedule that includes real opportunities for major-conference wins (vs. Purdue and Kansas). Quarterback Cody Kater is back after missing most of 2013 with a broken collarbone. Wide receiver Titus Davis opted against the NFL. A total of 18 starters return.

Why not bet the Chippewas: Under head coach Dan Enos, the Chippewas are 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS against winning MAC opponents. In 2013, four of their five conference wins came against teams that were either 0-8 or 1-7 in the MAC. A potential quarterback controversy could become a problem.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5.


Eastern Michigan Eagles (2013: 2-10 SU, 2-10 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 2.5

Why bet the Eagles: Chris Creighton boasts an overall record of 139-46 as a head coach, albeit with no experience at the FBS level. Running back Bronson Hill is back after recording the first 1,000-yard season for Eastern Michigan in a decade. The team’s four leading pass-catchers are all returning.

Why not bet the Eagles: A new coaching regime is in, which could be a good thing in the long run but will signal a transition period right now. The Eagles gave up an average of 510.8 yards and 45.2 points per game in 2013. They have recorded only one winning season since 1990 (6-5 in 1995).

Season win total pick: Under 2.5


Kent State Golden Flashes (2013: 4-8 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1,500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Golden Flashes: Quarterback Colin Reardon has a year of starting experience under his belt and he will still have 2013 leading pass-catcher Chris Humphrey and leading rusher Trayion Durham at his disposal. The Golden Flashes boast a solid duo at linebacker in Matt Dellinger and DeVante’ Strickland.

Why not bet the Golden Flashes: Kent State went 11-3 in 2012 under Darrell Hazell but compiled a 4-8 mark in Paul Haynes’ first year at the helm. The Golden Flashes are one of only two MAC teams, along with UMass, without an FCS opponent on the schedule. On defense, the line will need almost a complete overhaul.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5


Massachusetts Minutemen (2013: 1-11 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10,000
Season win total: 1.5

Why bet the Minutemen: Mark Whipple is back on board as head coach, 11 years after his first stint with the Minutemen, during which he won 49 games in six seasons. He will have options at quarterback with sophomore A.J. Doyle and also Blake Frohnapfel, who transferred from Marshall. The Minutemen are leaving the MAC in 2015 so they will be inspired to go out with some sort of bang.

Why not bet the Minutemen: Massachusetts is coming off back-to-back 1-11 campaigns in which the one win came against a team that went winless in the MAC. The defensive line is in shambles and there’s no depth to speak of aside from maybe at quarterback.

Season win total pick: Under 1.5.


Miami (Ohio) Redhawks (2013: 0-12 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +7,500
Season win total: 1.5

Why bet the Redhawks: The good news is that it can’t get any worse. But will it get better? Former Notre Dame offensive coordinator Chuck Martin is in as head coach. Fifteen starters return, which is not necessarily a great thing but at least the Redhawks will have some experience.

Why not bet the Redhawks: Miami (Ohio) has posted three losing seasons in a row, including a bagel last year. Don Treadwell is out, so the Redhawks will have to adjust to a new coaching staff. The 2013 team was dead last in the nation in red-zone offense, second worst in third-down conversions, and third worst in sacks allowed.

Season win total pick: Under 1.5.


Northern Illinois Huskies (2013: 12-2 SU, 8-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +250
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Huskies: Northern Illinois is loaded at running back with Cameron Stingily and Akeem Daniels. The Huskies also boast a talented receiver duo in Da’Ron Brown and Tommylee Lewis. They are 15-0 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 road games.

Why not bet the Huskies: Quarterback Jordan Lynch, who finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting, is gone. The defensive line and secondary also have to be rebuilt. A relatively young team will get a trial by fire with early road dates at Northwestern, UNLV, and Arkansas.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5.


Ohio Bobcats (2013: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2,500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Bobcats: The Bobcats have been consistent winners under former Nebraska head coach Frank Solich, with five consecutive bowl trips. They return seven starters on defense and will be extremely deep in their front seven.

Why not bet the Bobcats: Ohio will need an overhaul on offense following the departure of a star quarterback, two top rushers, five of the top six receivers, and three offensive linemen. Quarterback Tyler Tettleton and RB Beau Blankenship were the team’s undisputed leaders the past few years but are now gone.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5


Toledo Rockets (2013: 7-5 SU, 7-4-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +250
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Rockets: Sixteen starters - including six all-MAC performers - are returning. The Rockets should be dominant in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Kicker Jeremiah Detmer, a Lou Groza Award finalist last season, has converted 36 of 37 field goal attempts over the past two years.

Why not bet the Rockets: Experience will not necessarily mean success on the defensive side of the ball. Toledo allowed more than 420 yards per game last season. Former quarterback Terrance Owens is one of the few starters that have to be replaced.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5


Western Michigan Broncos (2013: 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +4,000
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Broncos: Head coach P.J. Fleck has a year under his belt and probably won’t be as overconfident as he was heading into the 2013 campaign. He brought in a stellar recruiting class more heralded than a handful of Big Ten teams. All-MAC senior cornerback Donald Celiscar headlines an experienced and likely outstanding secondary.

Why not bet the Broncos: Western Michigan won only one game last season and it came via a 31-30 decision after Massachusetts botched a two-point conversion attempt. Freshmen are expected to compete for just about every single starting position on the offensive side of the ball.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: