cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
11/16/2011 07:28 PM

Tech Trends - Week 11

November 16, 2011

Thursday, Nov. 17 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Jets "over" 23-9 since late '09 prior to Patriots Sun. night, Broncos "over" 22-8 last 30. Broncs 0-4 vs. line at home TY, 3-11 last 14 against points at home. Jets however have only covered one of their last five on road. "Over," based on "totals" trends.



Sunday, Nov. 20 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Dolphins no covers 19 of last 25 at Sun Life Stadium for Sparano but did beat Skins last week. Bills "over" 7-3 last 9 since late 2010. Slight to Bills and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Cincy actually covered all four meetings the last two years vs. Ravens, all of those "under" as well. Marvin Lewis has covered last five on road since late LY. Bengals and "under," based on team and series trends.

Browns only two covers last 17 on board. Jags "under" 7-1 TY. "Under" and Jags, based on "totals" and team trends.

The Raiders have covered first four on road TY and five straight away since late 2010. Also 5-1 last six as a 'dog. Vikings "over" 5-1 last six at the Metrodome. Raiders, especially if dog, and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Lions "over" 18-9-2 since late in 2009, though "under" last three at Ford Field TY. Lions 9-3 vs. spread as host since LY but have dropped last two vs. number at home. "Over" and Lions, based on 'totals" and team trends.

Packers are 14-0 SU and 11-3 vs. points last 14 on board prior to Vikings. Bucs have dropped last three vs. number away from home after 10-1 spread mark previous eleven away. Pack "over" 6-2 last 8 at Lambeau. Pack and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Skins have covered last three in series since LY but no wins or covers last five in 2011. Five of last six "under" in series and Shan "under" 13-3 last 16. Dallas 0-3-1 last 4 as road chalk since LY. Skins and "under," based on series trends.




Sunday, Nov. 20 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Harbaugh 8-0-1 vs. line TY, 49ers 9-0-1 last 9 vs. spread since late 2010. SF 15-5-2 last 22 vs. spread at Candlestick and has covered last five in series vs. Cards. 49ers "over" 6-1 last 7 as host. 49ers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

Pete Carroll surprising 6-1 vs. line last 7 TY and has covered last three on road after 2-9 spread mark previous 11 away. Both games "under" LY; Rams "under" 9-4 last 13 since late 2010. "Under," based on "totals" trends.




Sunday, Nov. 20 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Atlanta 9-5 last 14 vs. points at Georgia Dome. Titans just 3-6 against line last nine as visitor. Falcons, based on recent trends.

Norv 0-4 SU and vs. line last four TY, while Lovie has won and covered last four outings. Bears, based on recent trends.




Sunday, Nov. 20 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Eagles had covered six straight vs. G-Men prior to NY's 29-16 win earlier this year at Linc. Birds 2-6 vs. points last 8 TY, although NY has failed to cover its last three as host. Giants "over" 6-2-1 last 9 at home, Birds "over" 8-2 last 10 away. "Over," based on "totals" trends.




Monday, Nov. 21 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Prior to Jets, Belichick "under" last 3 in 2011 after "over" 20-4 previous 24. Chiefs "under" last 4 TY but have covered their last 3 on road. Slight to Chiefs, based on recent trends.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
11/16/2011 07:30 PM

Jets at Broncos

November 16, 2011

Two AFC teams that entered this season with significantly different expectations aren't too far apart in the record column. The Jets (5-4) head to the Rocky Mountains on Thursday following a shaky performance in a loss to the Patriots, as New York battles Denver. The Broncos (4-5) aren't winning in a pretty way, but have found a way to capture victories in three of four games started by Tim Tebow.

Denver managed to win at Kansas City, 17-10 as three-point underdogs last Sunday in spite of completing just two passes. The unconventional Tebow ran for a score and threw a touchdown pass to Eric Decker to give the Broncos their second consecutive victory to move a game under .500. The Broncos rushed for 244 yards on an eye-opening 55 carries, while John Fox's team improved to 3-0 SU/ATS on the road since moving Tebow into the starting quarterback role.

The Jets have been a streaky team all season long with a two-game winning streak, followed by a three-game skid, then putting together another three-game hot streak. That last stretch came to a screeching halt with Sunday's 37-16 home setback to the Patriots as 2 ½-point favorites. New England outscored New York 24-7 in the second half, including a pair of touchdown passes from Tom Brady, helping put the Pats a full game ahead of the Jets and Bills inside the AFC East race.

New York hasn't look great on the highway this season with a 1-3 SU/ATS mark, even though the Jets dominated the Bills in their last road contest. Rex Ryan's team lost in their only opportunity as a road favorite at Oakland in Week 3, falling 34-24 to the Raiders as three-point 'chalk.' Despite that loss, the Jets own a solid 6-3 ATS mark as an away favorite in Ryan's tenure, while going 2-1 ATS when laying five points or more.

The Broncos remain a factor in the weak AFC West race as Denver sits just one game behind Oakland for the top spot in the division. Denver needs to take advantage of the thin air at Invesco Field as the Broncos have failed to cover in all four home games. The lone home victory came in Week 2 against the surprising Bengals, 24-22, but the Broncos didn't cash as 3 ½-point favorites. In Tebow's only home start since replacing the ineffective Kyle Orton, Denver was blasted by Detroit, 45-10, as the Lions scored three touchdowns on plays of 40 yards or more.

Both teams are without key pieces to their backfield as LaDainian Tomlinson and Knowshon Moreno will miss the game due to knee injuries. Tomlinson, who is already playing sparingly behind Shonn Green, left Sunday's loss to New England with a sprained MCL and will likely be out. The injury to Moreno is significantly more damaging to the Broncos, as the former Georgia standout tore his ACL in the first quarter of Sunday's win at Kansas City and will miss the remainder of the season.

The Jets barely covered as 3 ½-point favorites in a 24-20 triumph at Invesco Field last October. Tomlinson put New York ahead for good with a touchdown run in the final 90 seconds to move the Jets to 5-1 on the season. Coincidentally, the Broncos received a touchdown on the ground from Tebow in the losing effort, as Denver owns a pathetic 5-12 SU and 4-13 ATS mark at Invesco since October 2009.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David breaks down the game from a totals standpoint, "Gamblers could be scratching their heads when trying to handicap Thursday's total. The number isn't that high, yet the current team trends lean to a high-scoring game. Denver has watched all four of its home games go 'over' the number, and New York has seen three of its four road tilts go 'over' the total."

David feels that this contest will be dictated by the running game, "Denver's new ground and pound attack keeps the clock running and the Jets will most likely run the ball too. If you look at the Broncos' schedule, they haven't faced a legit running back and the Jets' Greene is underrated. Don't be surprised to see New York beat Tebow and company at their own game."

The total opened at 42 ½ points and the number has dropped to 40 flat at most spots, while there are several 40 ½ numbers floating out there. The Jets are listed as six-point favorites, as the number is creeping up to 6 ½ at several outfits. The game will be televised nationally on the NFL Network and kicks off at 8:20 PM EST from Invesco Field.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
11/16/2011 07:36 PM

NFL Week 10 through the eyes of an ordinary bettor

Lloyd Christmas had a one in a million chance to swoon Mary Swanson. Tim Tebow had a one in a million chance to succeed in the NFL.

So you're telling me there's a chance.

I’m adopting a new betting commandment called the "Halo Rule". It states: Thou shalt never bet against Saint Tebow.

They said Timmy couldn't throw. He doesn't need to. They said Timmy couldn't run the option. He is. Like I’ve said before, this kid has the hand of God behind him, and the big man upstairs is a southpaw.

Forget about the Oregon Ducks, the Donkeys run the best read option in football. They even sprinkled in some triple option this week ala Georgia Tech.

Is this really going to work in the NFL? Conventional wisdom says the speed will catch up. And you’d think with proper preparation a disciplined defense should be able to contain it.

But Miami, Oakland and Kansas City couldn’t. And the Raiders had a week to prepare. And the Chiefs couldn’t stop a third-string tailback.

The Donks just manhandled two straight division opponents on the road. With the AFC West looking uglier than the NFC West these days, Denver still has a lot of life left.

And as long as Timmy is walking on water, I’m giving them better than a one in a million chance.

Offensive offenses

The only thing that saved me from a winless week was the Browns. They had scored more than 17 points just once all season but for some reason the oddsmakers felt like they were going to put up three touches against an improving Rams defense.

The only way this offense can move the ball is gadget plays. There is no running game, no deep threat and no explosiveness. Everything is vanilla because the personnel is pedestrian.

First, you've got the “Strep-Gate” soap opera starring Peyton Hillis, which has reached Code All My Children. Hillis won’t put on a Browns uniform ever again. And for those of you that aren’t superstitious, the Madden Curse is real.

Then there’s Monterio Hardesty. The guy they want to be the guy, but can't stay healthy.

And what are you going to do about Mohammed Massaquoi? The poor kid still can't see straight after James Harrison tried to decapitate him last year.

Like Cleveland, there are a few teams that have a great chance of playing under their team total every week. The Jags and Skins are certainly in that conversation.

Whether they like to lean on their defense or they lack playmakers, there is a common theme with these offensively inept offenses. They don’t score much and they cash a lot of unders.

Below are three quotes about each of the aforementioned offenses, from a member of the team. I’ll let you guess which quote came from which team (answers on back).

A. “I couldn’t imagine offensively that we’d be this anemic.”
B. “Right now you take a look at the offense and it’s tough to take.”
C. “He's still basically a rookie.”

Horseshit-collar tackle

I take a look at one of the worst calls every week because the trend is too easy to follow. It’s getting so bad these days the refs aren’t even getting them right with the assistance of replay (Victor Cruz fumble at San Fran).

Colt McCoy was rolling to his right with Craig Dahl in pursuit. Dahl momentarily gets a hand on his collar but McCoy gets away and sends a pass downfield. The pass was completed for five yards but then the Browns got 15 tacked on for a horse-collar tackle.

What! How can you call a horse-collar tackle when no one was actually tackled?

Look, I’m glad the Roy Williams Rule is in place. It protects players from severe injury. But Dahl barely slowed McCoy down. He never even got close to tackling him, or injuring him. If he gets fined he should pay the league with a truckload of pennies.

At least justice was served by the football gods. The snap for the go-ahead field goal rolled to the holder and Phil Dawson shanked the boot.

It was a really bad beat if you backed the Browns to win. But that was a really bad call.

The NFL has come to a point where it’s over-protecting players. It’s starting to feel a lot like flag football.

Bonehead of the week

Doesn't Mike Smith remember how much crap Belichick caught for that call against the Colts in ’09?

At least Bill had a reason to go for it. No way were the Pats stopping Peyton Manning again. But the Falcons defense was holding ground and had already forced a three-and-out in overtime.

What does a call like that do to the psyche of a defense? Of course he’s going to say it was all about the offense but do you question the level of confidence your head coach has in you?

I like coaches that gamble. Like a fake punt or a surprise onside kick (Harbaugh you sneaky dog). But going for it on fourth and inches on your own 30 is like walking in the winning run.

Leaning tower of leans

Bengals +7.5 at Ravens - Cincy hung around pretty well with Pitt. And I think the Steelers are better than Baltimore.

Jaguars PK at Browns - Two of those “anemic” offenses square off again. I’ll take the one that has the only superstar in the stadium.

Giants -3 vs. Eagles - Freddy Krueger dressed as John Skelton just murdered the Dream Team.

NFL Record: 26-18-2, 5.43 units

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
11/16/2011 07:37 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 11

NY Jets at Denver
The Jets look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 3 1/2 to 10 points. New York is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Jets favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-4 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 17

Game 307-308: NY Jets at Denver (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 138.098; Denver 124.971
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 13; 36
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 4 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-4 1/2); Under


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 20

Game 415-416: Tennessee at Atlanta (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 131.205; Atlanta 138.122
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 7; 49
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6; 44
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6); Over

Game 417-418: Buffalo at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 127.304; Miami 133.962
Dunkel Line: Miami by 6 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Miami by 1; 43
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-1); Over

Game 419-420: Cincinnati at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 133.547; Baltimore 140.109
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 8; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+8); Under

Game 421-422: Jacksonville at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 128.418; Cleveland 130.199
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 37
Vegas Line: Jacksonville by 1; 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+1); Over

Game 423-424: Oakland at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 129.120; Minnesota 128.148
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+3); Under

Game 425-426: Carolina at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 123.489; Detroit 135.889
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 12 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-6 1/2); Under

Game 427-428: Tampa Bay at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 131.465; Green Bay 142.311
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 11; 52
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 13; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+13); N/A

Game 429-430: Dallas at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 136.157; Washington 125.380
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 11; 44
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7 1/2); Over

Game 431-432: Arizona at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 127.972; San Francisco 139.708
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 11 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 9 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-9 1/2); Under

Game 433-434: Seattle at St. Louis (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 127.713; St. Louis 126.463
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 40
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+2 1/2); Over

Game 435-436: San Diego at Chicago (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 131.644; Chicago 138.189
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Under

Game 437-438: Philadelphia at NY Giants (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 130.007; NY Giants 135.301
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 5 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-3); Under


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 21

Game 439-440: Kansas City at New England (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 127.166; New England 139.858
Dunkel Line: New England by 12 1/2; 54
Vegas Line: New England by 16; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+16); N/A

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
11/16/2011 07:38 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

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Thursday, November 17

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NY JETS (5 - 4) at DENVER (4 - 5) - 11/17/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 42-25 ATS (+14.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 20

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TENNESSEE (5 - 4) at ATLANTA (5 - 4) - 11/20/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (5 - 4) at MIAMI (2 - 7) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
MIAMI is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
MIAMI is 45-68 ATS (-29.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
MIAMI is 66-92 ATS (-35.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
MIAMI is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 2-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 2-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (6 - 3) at BALTIMORE (6 - 3) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (3 - 6) at CLEVELAND (3 - 6) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in a home game where the total is between 32.5 and 35 points since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (5 - 4) at MINNESOTA (2 - 7) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 31-62 ATS (-37.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 25-58 ATS (-38.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 12-32 ATS (-23.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CAROLINA (2 - 7) at DETROIT (6 - 3) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 5) at GREEN BAY (9 - 0) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (5 - 4) at WASHINGTON (3 - 6) - 11/20/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 17-33 ATS (-19.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (3 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (8 - 1) - 11/20/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (3 - 6) at ST LOUIS (2 - 7) - 11/20/2011, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 117-152 ATS (-50.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 84-119 ATS (-46.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 117-152 ATS (-50.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 5) at CHICAGO (6 - 3) - 11/20/2011, 4:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 6) at NY GIANTS (6 - 3) - 11/20/2011, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 145-106 ATS (+28.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 53-31 ATS (+18.9 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 28-49 ATS (-25.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 4-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 21

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KANSAS CITY (4 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 3) - 11/21/2011, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-30 ATS (-20.0 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 141-106 ATS (+24.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
11/16/2011 07:39 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, 11/17/2011

NY JETS at DENVER, 8:20 PM ET NFL Network
NY JETS: 23-8 ATS off home division loss
DENVER: 1-5 ATS off BB road games


Sunday, 11/20/2011

TENNESSEE at ATLANTA, 4:15 PM ET (TC)
TENNESSEE: 37-16 ATS vs. NFC
ATLANTA: 11-2 ATS off SU loss

BUFFALO at MIAMI, 1:00 PM ET
BUFFALO: 15-3 ATS Away after allowing 35+ pts
MIAMI: 8-1 Under this season

CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM ET
CINCINNATI: 6-0 Over in conference games
BALTIMORE: 0-4 ATS vs. Cincinnati

JACKSONVILLE at CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM ET
JACKSONVILLE: 8-1 Under in all games
CLEVELAND: 2-10 ATS in home games

OAKLAND at MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM ET
OAKLAND: 31-62 ATS if line is +3 to -3
MINNESOTA: 10-0 ATS at home off loss by 21+

CAROLINA at DETROIT, 1:00 PM ET
CAROLINA: 1-8 ATS as road dog of 7 pts or less
DETROIT: 6-0 Over off road loss

TAMPA BAY at GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM ET
TAMPA BAY: 17-4 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards L3 games
GREEN BAY: 8-0 ATS at home off 5+ wins

DALLAS at WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM ET
DALLAS: 3-12 ATS off win by 28+ pts
WASHINGTON: 9-1 Under as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO, 4:05 PM ET
ARIZONA: 11-3 Under vs. division
SAN FRANCISCO: 8-0-1 ATS this season

SEATTLE at ST LOUIS, 4:05 PM ET
SEATTLE: 0-8 ATS Away off home win
ST LOUIS: 34-19 Over after allowing 14 points or less last game

SAN DIEGO at CHICAGO, 4:15 PM ET
SAN DIEGO: 6-0 Over Away off home game
CHICAGO: 2-12 ATS off game w/ TO margin of +4 or better

PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS, 8:20 PM ET NBC
PHILADELPHIA: 7-0 Over Away off an Under
NY GIANTS: 0-6 ATS after allowing 6+ yds per play last game


Monday, 11/21/2011

KANSAS CITY at NEW ENGLAND, 8:30 PM ET ESPN
KANSAS CITY: 13-30 ATS vs. AFC East
NEW ENGLAND: 6-1 Over off double digit road win

** (TC) Denotes Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
11/16/2011 07:41 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 11

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 17

8:20 PM
NY JETS vs. DENVER
NY Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of the NY Jets last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games at home
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home


Sunday, November 20

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. GREEN BAY
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. DETROIT
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. MINNESOTA
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Oakland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland
Minnesota is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oakland

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. BALTIMORE
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. WASHINGTON
Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Washington is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Jacksonville's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. MIAMI
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games when playing Miami
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Miami is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home

4:05 PM
SEATTLE vs. ST. LOUIS
Seattle is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games
Seattle is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
St. Louis is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games
St. Louis is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Seattle

4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona

4:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CHICAGO
San Diego is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing San Diego

4:15 PM
TENNESSEE vs. ATLANTA
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee

8:20 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY GIANTS
Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Giants
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games
NY Giants are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing Philadelphia


Monday, November 21

8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 15 of New England's last 20 games


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
11/16/2011 07:42 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Jets (5-4) @ Broncos (4-5)-- Jets off spanking by Patriots, have long trip with short work week; they've won two of last three visits here, including 24-20 win LY. Jets allowed 30+ points in all four losses; they've allowed 13 ppg in wins- they're 1-3 on road, winning only at Buffalo. Denver is 3-1 with Tebow starting at QB, running ball for average of 230 yards/game, but they've lost three of four at home, losing 45-10 to Lions in Tebow's only home start. Over is 5-2 in Jets' last seven games. Denver completed less than 50% of passes in last five games. AFC West underdogs are 5-7 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road favorites are 1-3.

Titans (5-4) @ Falcons (5-4)-- Interesting to see how Falcons bounce back after OT loss to rival Saints last week, their first loss in four games. Atlanta is 2-2 as favorite this year, 1-0 at home- they're 2-2 SU at home. Titans are playing first game this year on artificial turf; they're 2-2 on road, 4-1 as underdogs- they are 1-4 when scoring 17 or less points, 4-0 when they score more. Teams are 2-6 week after playing New Orleans. Tennessee won last five series games, with its last loss in 1990, but they lost only Super Bowl appearance on this field dozen years ago. Last five Atlanta games, last three Titan games stayed under total.

Bills (5-4) @ Dolphins (2-7)-- Buffalo lost last two games 27-11/44-7; they've turned ball over 11 times in losing three of last four games. Miami won last two games after 0-7 start, not allowing a TD on 19 possessions; they had only four takeaways in first eight games, but had two last week. Fish are 4-2 in last six series games, winning two of last three here, by 9-28 points. Last eight Miami games stayed under total; six of nine Buffalo games went over, as have four of five AFC East divisional games. Bills lost their last three road games by 3-3-37 points- they're 3-1-1 as underdog this year. Miami's win last week made them 7-29 vs spread in last 36 games as a home favorite.

Bengals (6-3) @ Ravens (6-3)-- Baltimore is 4-0 at home, 3-1 as home favorite, winning by 28-17-15-3 points, but in last four games, they've lost to two awful teams, and beat Arizona after trailing 24-6, so they're struggling badly. Bengals won three of last four series games, are 4-3 in last seven visits here, losing by 6-7-6 points- they're 4-1 on road, 5-0 vs spread, with only loss 24-22 at Denver. Cincy is only NFL team to win field position battle in all nine games. Ravens lost field position last four weeks, by 12-8-3-14 yards- as opponents started 10 of 43 drives in Baltimore territory. Six of nine Baltimore games went over the total. Bengals forced 33 3/out on opponents' last 69 drives.

Jaguars (3-6) @ Browns (3-6)-- Cleveland would be shooting for .500 here had they not botched center snap on GW FG last week. Browns trail series 9-4 but are 3-2 vs Jaguars since teams haven't been division rivals. Jags allowed 14-7-3 points in their three wins, an average of 23.7 in its losses; Browns scored more than 17 points once this year, and were held to 12 or less points in each of last four (two TDs last 40 drives). Jaguars are 1-4 on road, with only win at winless Colts. AFC South road underdogs are 4-6 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC North home favorites are 5-6-1. Last four Jacksonville games, four of last Cleveland games stayed under the total.

Raiders (5-4) @ Vikings (2-7)-- Minnesota has short week after Monday night tank job at Lambeau; they're 0-6 when scoring less than 24 points, 1-3 at home, despite outscoring those four opponents 82-15 in first half. Oakland is 9-4 in series, splitting six visits to Twin Cities; they're 3-1 on road, with only loss by 3 at Buffalo, when they led 21-3 at the half. NFC North home teams are 6-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. Five of last six Oakland games stayed under the total; three of last four Viking games went over. Raiders had four extra days to prepare for this, having played on Thursday last week. In two games since its bye, Oakland has averaged 8.5/10.5 yards/pass attempt.

Panthers (2-7) @ Lions (6-3)-- Detroit lost three of last four games after a 5-0 start; QB Stafford broke index finger on his passing hand, why is he playing if he is hurt? Detroit scored 24+ points in its six wins, 19-16-13 losses, and they lost their last two home games (2-2 as home fave). NFC North non-divisional favorites are 9-6 vs spread, 5-4 at home; AFC South underdogs are 5-6, 3-4 on road. Six of nine Detroit games went over the total; three of last four Carolina games stayed under. Panthers lost five of last six games, are 1-2 as underdogs on road, losing all three games by 7-5-14 points- this is their first road game in five weeks. Carolina allowed 140.5 rushing yards/game over last four games.

Buccaneers (4-5) @ Packers (9-0)-- Unbeaten Green Bay on serious roll, with six covers in last seven games; Pack is 4-0 as home favorite, winning by 8-26-21-38 points, scoring 19 TDs on 37 home possessions. Pack covered six of last seven games- they scored 45 in both post-bye games. Tampa Bay lost three in row, by 6-11-28 points, with only four TDs on last 36 drives- they've given up an average of 185.7 rushing yards/game in last three games. Bucs are 1-3 on the road, losing by 45-6-11 points, with lone win at Metrodome in Week 2. Six of last seven Buc games stayed under the total; last three Packer games went over. Tampa Bay won last three series games, by 1-9-10 points.

Cowboys (5-4) @ Redskins (3-6)-- Wheels have fallen off for Washington club that lost last five games (0-5 vs spread) scoring one offensive TD on their last 32 drives. Neither QB is any good, so teams play nine in box vs runs and have held Skins to average of 54.6 rushing yards during five-game losing skid. Dallas lost three of four on road, with only win in OT at Candlestick in Week 2; they are 2-3-1 as favorites. Cowboys won five of last six games in series, including 18-16 (-4) Monday night win in Week 3, when teams combined for one TD and four FGs on six red zone drives. Five of last six series totals were 34 or less. Under is 7-1 in last eight Washington games, 4-1 in last five Dallas games.

Cardinals (3-6) @ 49ers (8-1)-- San Francisco won/covered last seven games, as 49ers continue to take ball away- they've had 2+ takeaways in every game but one, and are +13 in turnovers for season. Niners won last four series games, last three by 15+ points- they held Arizona to 9.5 ppg in the four games. Arizona covered last three games, winning last two and blowing 24-6 lead at Baltimore in game before that; Cardinals are 1-4 on road, 3-1 as road underdog, losing on road by 1-3-24-3 points, with a win at Philly- only two of their six losses are by more than four points. Three of 49ers' last four games stayed under total. Underdogs are 0-3-1 vs spread week after playing the Eagles.

Seahawks (3-6) @ Rams (2-7)-- Seattle won 11 of last 12 series games since '04 playoff loss; last meeting was 16-6 home win that clinched NFC West on final day of 2010. Seahawks are 1-4 on road, getting five takeaways (+2) in only win at Giants. Rams won two of last three games, allowing only one offensive TD on last 21 drives; they're favored for first time this year. Jackson is healthy and Rams have run ball for 154.3 yards/game last three weeks. Seattle's turnover ratio is +6 in its three wins, -8 in losses- they have three TDs on 43 drives in their four road losses. Under is 3-1 in Seattle's last four games, 5-1 in Rams' last six. Average total in last four series games, 29.0.

Chargers (4-5) @ Bears (6-3)-- San Diego has fallen apart, going 0-4 since bye, allowing 29.8 ppg (12 TDs/33 drives); they're 1-3 on road, losing by 14-6-3- its only road win was at Denver. Chicago won/covered last four games, scoring an average of 32.5 ppg; they're 3-2 at home, 2-1 as home favorite, winning games at home by 18-5-29-24 points. San Diego has turned ball over 2+ times in each of last five games (-4). Teams split 10 series games, with Bolts losing three of four visits here (only win was 20-7 in first meeting 41 years ago). Three of last four Chicago games went over the total. Chicago has nine INTs in its last three games, after picking off only four passes in their first six games.

Eagles (3-6) @ Giants (6-3)-- Last 3-6 team to wind up in playoffs were the '96 Jaguars, coached by Tom Coughlin, so Eagles aren't dead, but their season is on life support. Philly (-8) lost 29-16 to Giants in Week 3, ending six-game series win streak- they've won last four visits here, scoring 45-38 in last two. Giants are 3-1 at home, 1-2-1 as home favorites, winning in Swamp by 12-3-3 points. Vick has broken ribs; if he can't go, highly suspect Vince Young gets nod. Philly is on road for first time in five weeks; they've split four road games, losing by 4 in Atlanta, 7 in Buffalo. Three of four Eagle road games went over total. Eagles are amazingly 0-6 this season when allowing more than 13 points.

Chiefs (4-5) @ Patriots (6-3)-- Chief QB Cassel (hand) is out for year; former Pitt QB Palko gets first NFL start here, leading team that scored one TD on last 21 drives in losing last two games by 28-7 points. Patriots won four of last five series games; Chiefs lost last four visits here by 30-6-3-7 points, with last win in '90. Patriots lost two of last three games, but are 3-1 at home, winning by 14-9-4 points with a loss to Jets (2-2 as home faves). Six of last seven Kansas City games stayed under total, as did three of last four Patriot tilts. Chief personnel head Pioli had same role in Foxboro during Patriots' championship years. Chiefs covered their last three road games, are 5-1 as an underdog this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
11/17/2011 07:14 PM

Where the action is: Mid-week football line moves

For our weekly look at football lines on the move, we chatted up Todd Fuhrman, race and sportsbook analyst at Caesar's in Las Vegas. Here are some thoughts about why these odds are jumping around.

NCAAF

California at Stanford - Open: -20 Move: -17.5

This line reeks of last week – as in Stanford’s season-altering loss to Oregon.

This could be letdown city for Stanford and even more troubling when you consider it's the annual BIG GAME,” Fuhrman says. “Cal will be amped to take advantage of a Cardinal team who had their title dream's dashed last week against Oregon and one has to imagine Stanford could come out a little bit flat Saturday.”

Miami at South Florida - Open: +1.5 Move: -1

What a weird year it’s been for South Florida. After such a great start, the Bulls were terrible in October and nearly flushed their season down the drain. Now that a win Saturday will still make them bowl eligible, this game against Miami looms a lot larger.

“Miami has struggled away from home this season and now takes on a Bulls team that will see this as a chance to build on a strong Florida recruiting base,” Fuhrman says. “The Canes came up just short versus FSU last week and it's hard to imagine they bring similar intensity this week. Not exactly the public looking to back Skip Holtz's bunch in this game.”

Oklahoma at Baylor - Open: +14 Move: +15.5

The task for the Sooners is simple – win out for a shot at the BCS Championship game. They’ll have tons of supporters (as we’ve already seen by this line move), but this one could be interesting.

“The real question would be over/under 2.5 punts for Oklahoma if you ask me,” Fuhrman says. “RGIII should find plenty of looks downfield but the Bears defense could be in for a long day if OU's weapons are clicking on all cylinders. This has the potential for a good old fashioned shootout and the Sooners have a few more weapons suited for that kind of football game.”


NFL

Philadelphia at New York Giants - Open: -3 Move: -5

As if the Philadelphia Eagles didn’t have enough to worry about already, now Mike Vick has a couple of broken ribs and his status for Week 11’s tilt up in the air. That’s not to mention whatever is going on with DeSean Jackson or the 22.6 points per game the Eagles allow.

“This is pure injury steam around the Michael Vick injury situation,” Fuhrman says. “Even if Vick was 100 percent, I think -3 was way too low to open this number since the public's love affair with Philly has worn off following back-to-back clunkers. The Giants have a very difficult schedule coming up and if they're going to make a run at the division title it’s imperative for them to hold serve at home.”

Jacksonville at Cleveland - Open: 0 Move: -1

This line has been bouncing around pick ‘em since the opening and right now bettors seem to just be siding with the crappy home team as opposed to the crappy visiting team.

“Can either of these teams get to 10?” Furhman wonders. “ Two of the NFL's most anemic offenses won't be keeping the scoreboard operator on his toes this weekend. I figure there's some value with the home team at such a cheap price given the Jags inability to move the football consistently.”

Kansas City at New England - Total open: 48 Total move: 46

The Chiefs were a major offensive question mark with Matt Cassel under center, so now that Tyler Palko is taking the snaps, it’s understandable to see this total drop a bit.

“New England will definitely get their points on Monday but how does K.C. find the end zone?” Furhman asks. “Tyler Palko was once cut from a UFL roster and his biggest claim to fame is beating out Joe Flacco for the starter's job at Pitt during college. Kansas City hasn't moved the ball under Matt Cassel and there's no reason for me to believe they will with the QB change. I know the Pats defense isn't a brick wall but the Chiefs could be lucky to muster double digits this week.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:23731 Followers:32
11/17/2011 07:16 PM

NFL

Thursday, November 17

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Thursday Night Football: Jets at Broncos
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New York Jets at Denver Broncos (+6, 40.5)

THE STORY: There’s usually not much activity on Revis Island, but it will be taken to a new extreme when the Denver Broncos host the New York Jets on Thursday night. Jets coach Rex Ryan banks on teams not throwing at star cornerback Darrelle Revis, and the Broncos will be happy to oblige with their Tim Tebow-led option offense that put the ball in the air only eight times in Sunday’s win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Denver’s new look might be welcomed by the Jets, who were torched by Tom Brady and New England’s aerial attack in a blowout home loss Sunday night.

TV: NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET.

LINE MOVES: The Jets opened as 5-point road faves and were bet down to -4 before action pushed the spread all the way to -6. The total had fallen from 42.5 to 40.5.

WEATHER: Clear skies are in the forecast for Denver, with light winds blowing SW at 6 mph. Game-time temperatures will dip into the mid 40's later in the evening.

ABOUT THE JETS (5-4, 4-5 ATS): New York’s three-game winning streak came to a screeching halt in the 37-16 loss to the Patriots in a showdown for first place in the AFC East. QB Mark Sanchez threw a pair of interceptions and was sacked five times, so the Jets may follow Denver’s lead with a more conventional ground-and-pound running game. With LaDainian Tomlinson likely to miss the game with a sprain knee, New York could feature a heavy dose of RB Shonn Greene and count on its defense to contain the Broncos’ one-dimensional offense. The Jets had allowed 38 points in three previous games before wilting under the New England’s pass-heavy attack.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-5, 4-5 ATS): The pundits keep insisting that Tebow’s throwing motion is not suited for success in the NFL, but it doesn’t have to be in this offense. Denver ran the ball on 55 plays last week, getting 30 carries from Lance Ball, who was forced into action due to injuries to RBs Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno. McGahee is iffy and Moreno is done for the year, so Ball could be in line for another big workload. Tebow had two completions last week, but one was a 56-yard TD to Eric Decker that broke the game open. The Broncos have won two straight and are 3-1 with Tebow as a starter.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Tebow is the only QB in history to throw a TD pass and rush for at least 25 yards in each of his first seven starts.

2. The Jets had won six straight games in November prior to Sunday’s loss that had Ryan cursing at a fan – and apologizing for it the next day.

3. Tomlinson ran for two fourth-quarter scores as the Jets rallied for a 24-20 win at Denver last season.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Denver.
* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Broncos are 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 home games.
* Over is 5-0 in Jets' last five games as road favorites.
* Over is 22-8 in Broncos' last 30 games overall.

PREDICTION: Jets 20, Broncos 13. With only leather helmets missing, the Jets grind out a hard-to-watch victory.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: