cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
On 11/14/2011 11:28 PM in NCAA Football

Cnotes Week # 12 CFB Best Bets 11/15-11/19 !

Top-Ranked LSU On Road At Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss has covered 11 of the last 14 meetings against LSU.
It has been a frustrating season for the Ole Miss Rebels, but all of the frowns in Oxford will turn upside down if the team can pull off one of the biggest upsets of the year on the NCAA football betting odds in their home finale against the LSU Tigers.

Saturday's SEC West showdown is set for 7:00 p.m. (ET) at Vaught Hemingway Stadium, and you can watch this one live on ESPN.

The Bayou Bengals (10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS) are ranked No. 1 in the land by just about all accounts, including here in our Don Best Linemakers Poll. They are three wins away from the BCS National Championship Game, and theoretically, this should be nothing more than a bump in the road before the regular season finale against the Arkansas Razorbacks at home next week.

The Tigers have played remarkable defense this year, allowing 253.2 YPG and 10.7 PPG. Both marks are No. 2 in the country behind their division rivals, the Alabama Crimson Tide. In games against non-Top 25 opponents though, the defense has really stepped it up, allowing just 7.2 PPG, and the unit has only allowed a grand total of three touchdowns in those six games.

The offense looked shaky last week against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in the first half, but in the end, the team put 42 points on the board, the sixth time in the last seven games in which LSU has scored at least 35.

It's difficult to see how the Rebels (2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS) will be able to get anything going against this defense. The team ranks No. 113 in America at 297.7 YPG, and it only scored seven points at home against the suspect Louisiana State Bulldogs just last week.

This is going to be the final home game in the tenure of head coach Houston Nutt, who will step down after next week's Egg Bowl against the Mississippi State Bulldogs. He hasn't won a conference game this year, and has yet to have a truly successful season since coming from Arkansas Razorbacks.

The Tigers make their living on the ground with a rushing attack that is putting up 197.4 YPG. Spencer Ware, Michael Ford and Alfred Blue are combining to average 31.7 carries per game for 152.6 YPG. All three of them have six touchdowns.

The Ole Miss rush defense allowed 389 rushing yards in the comparable game against Alabama, and the Rebels are allowing 210.1 YPG.

If you're grasping for reasons to like the Rebels on Saturday, just look at recent history. This was only a seven-point game in Baton Rouge a year ago, and LSU's victory was the first win in this series for the men in purple and gold since 2007.

Ole Miss is 11-3 ATS against the Tigers since 1997, and a respectable 6-8 SU in those games as well.

Still, the oddsmakers have made no bones about which team is the better in this game. The No. 1 team in the land has opened up favored by 28½.

Expect nice weather on Saturday for the Mississippi home finale. Temperatures are expected to dip into the low-50s at night, but the forecast is calling for clear weather and a minimal chance for rain.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/14/2011 11:30 PM

Oregon Faces USC Trojans In Potential Letdown

The Oregon Ducks' dream of a second-straight national title bid is alive and well, but they can’t afford any letdown hosting the USC Trojans on Saturday night.

Oregon has opened as a surprisingly big 15-point favorite at Don Best. The total is still to be released and ABC will broadcast from Autzen Stadium in Eugene at 8:00 p.m. (ET).

The Ducks (9-1 straight up, 6-3-1 against the spread) were one of the biggest winners in college football last week, both literally and figuratively. They shocked previously undefeated Stanford 53-30 as 2 ½-point road ‘dogs and moved up from No. 7 to No. 4 in the BCS with Boise State also losing (36-35 TCU) for the first time.

Coach Chip Kelly’s team (+1000) is now tied for fourth in the updated national title odds along with Oklahoma, trailing LSU (-140), Alabama (+160) and Oklahoma State (+450),

Ironically, Oregon’s only loss this year was the season opener against LSU in Arlington, Texas. The final score was 40-27, with self-inflicted wounds of four turnovers and 12 penalties. A loss by undefeated LSU (not likely) or Oklahoma State (more likely) would give serious national title hopes to the 1-loss teams.

The Ducks first need to focus on their own game. The 53 points at Stanford was their most since Week 4 and increases the season average to 46.7 PPG (third nationally). Heisman favorite Andrew Luck was forced into three turnovers, including two interceptions.

The running game had 232 yards against Stanford and is fifth nationally (291.8 YPG). Running back LaMichael James leads the nation at 150.9 YPG and Kenjon Barner (643 yards) is also dangerous. Quarterback Darron Thomas can run when needed and is an underrated passer, although he’s often under 20 throws.

USC’ run defense is eighth in the county (100.4 YPG), but isn’t used to facing this kind of all-out ground assault.

Oregon has a 21-game home winning streak (12-7-2 ATS), last losing in 2008. The ‘over’ is 3-2 at home this year and 19-6-1 in its last 26 there.

USC (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) is ranked No. 18 in the AP, but flying under the radar nationally by being in the same conference as Oregon and Stanford. Southern Cal is also not eligible for a bowl game or the Pac-12 championship due to NCAA violations.

The Trojans aren’t letting sanctions ruin their season. They had an impressive 40-17 home win over Washington last Saturday as 11-point favorites. It was the second time this season quarterback Matt Barkley was held under 200 yards passing, but they were happy with that with 252 rushing yards (148 by junior Curtis McNeal).

Coach Lane Kiffin’s young team is now 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) since a bad loss at Arizona State in late September. The only recent defeat was a 56-48 triple OT affair against Stanford. That was a ‘bad beat’ ATS failure as 7 ½-point ‘dogs. The defense has really come around, surrendering just 18.8 PPG in regulation the last five games.

USC has also won and covered its last three road games at Colorado (42-17), Notre Dame (31-17) and California (30-9) and is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 away dating back to last year.

The question for Kiffin is how will the team handle the trip to Eugene? USC should have success with the nation’s 23rd ranked passing attack (278.4 YPG). However, staying balanced is key with the running of McNeal and senior Marc Tyler.

All-American Oregon cornerback Cliff Harris is listed as questionable after multiple suspensions this year. He hasn’t played since October 22, but would be a big boost against Barkley and company.

Oregon won at USC 53-32 last year as 6-point favorites, putting up an incredible 600 total yards (312 rushing, 288 passing). The home team was 4-0 SU and ATS in the previous four meetings.

The Don Best Linemakers Poll has Oregon ranked fifth (120.1), up a spot from a week ago, and USC 19th (110.9). The 15-point spread does look a little big based on these rankings, even with home field considered.

Weather conditions call for rain all workweek, continuing Saturday with snow showers possible as temps dip into the 30s. That’s a big detriment to the visitors who prefer the balmy temperatures of Los Angeles.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/14/2011 11:32 PM

Stanford Cardinal Off Loss To Host California Bears

The Stanford Cardinal will look to bounce back from a crushing loss to Oregon last week when they host the California Bears this Saturday in one of college football’s oldest rivalries.

Stanford is currently a 20-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen. Saturday night’s game will be televised nationally on ESPN, and will kick off at 10:15 p.m. (ET).

Known as the “Big Game,” the Cal vs. Stanford dates back to 1915 and is the 10th oldest rivalry in college football. Of course, this year’s “Big Game” won’t be nearly as big as it would have been if Stanford hadn’t lost to Oregon.

That defeat not only ended Stanford’s BCS National Championship hopes, but in all likelihood the Cardinal's Pac-12 championship hopes as well with Oregon just one win away from clinching the North Division.

Stanford (9-1) still has something to play for down the stretch, though. Currently ranked No. 8 in the AP Top 25, the Cardinal could still earn an at-large bid to a BCS bowl if they finish the season with wins over California and Notre Dame.

Turnovers killed the Cardinal against the Ducks. Stanford held Oregon to under 400 yards of total offense, but couldn’t overcome five turnovers, including an Andrew Luck interception returned for a touchdown. The 53-30 loss at home was not only Stanford’s first straight-up loss of the season, but also their first loss against the spread as they fell to 9-1 ATS.

California (6-4) earned bowl eligibility last week with a win over Oregon State at home. Cal is 3-1 both SU and ATS over the the last four games, and has outscored its opponents 53-13 during the last two weeks.

The road has not been kind to the Bears this season as they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS away from Berkley. California has scored just 22 points per game on the road this season and given up 34.5 points per game on the road, compared to 32.5 points for and 14.3 against at home.

The “Big Game” has gone California’s way in recent years. While Stanford won last year 48-14 at Cal, the Bears are still 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games against the Cardinal. California is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games on the road against Stanford, including a 34-28 win as a 7-point underdog in its last trip to Palo Alto.

For California to be successful this week, the defense will need to step up against the run. Cal’s rushing defense was decimated in the last two road games against UCLA (294 rushing yards against) and Oregon (365). Stanford averages 215 rushing yards per game.

Each of the last three contests between Stanford and Cal have gone ‘over’ the total, but the previous six contests before that had all gone ‘under’. The total has gone ‘under’ in each of California’s last seven games.

Early forecasts call for sunny skies during the day in the Palo Alto area to turn cloudy after sunset. There's a 20 percent shot at rain with temps in the low-50s at kickoff before falling into the upper-30s.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/14/2011 11:33 PM

Clemson Tigers Visit North Carolina State Wolfpack

The Clemson Tigers have already clinched a spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game heading into a road meeting with the North Carolina Wolfpack on Saturday. The Tigers (9-1, 6-1 ACC) captured the conference’s Atlantic Division title for the second time in three years with a 31-28 home victory against Wake Forest last week while the Wolfpack (5-5, 2-4) must win both of their last two games to become bowl eligible.

Game time is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by ABC.

Clemson opened as a 9-point road favorite according to the Don Best odds screen but has failed to cover the spread in two straight games, including a narrow win over the Demon Deacons at home last Saturday.

The Tigers needed a 43-yard field goal from kicker Chandler Catanzaro to beat Wake Forest as time expired. Catanzaro had missed a 30-yarder with 1:42 left that could have resulted in the game-winner, but he still managed to come through for his teammates when they needed him the most. Clemson closed as a 16 ½-point favorite and was fortunate to be in position to win the game after trailing the Demon Deacons 28-14 with 5:59 left in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, North Carolina State has alternated wins and losses in four straight games following a 14-10 setback at Boston College last week. The Wolfpack were 1 ½-point road favorites and have covered just one of their five road games this season.

That will be a tough task for North Carolina State since the team has lost the last seven meetings with the Tigers, who are 2-3 against the spread in the past five. Last year, Clemson rallied back for a 14-13 home victory against the Wolfpack after trailing 7-0 at halftime. The Tigers were 4-point favorites in that game and routed N.C. State 43-23 in their previous trip to Raleigh in 2009.

North Carolina State's last win in this series came in 2003, a 17-15 decision as 5-point home favorites.

One player who has played extremely well for the Wolfpack this season is cornerback David Amerson, who leads the NCAA with 10 interceptions, which is also a school record. Amerson picked off BC quarterback Chase Rettig last week and will now focus on holding Clemson’s Tajh Boyd in check after he threw for 343 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions against Wake Forest.

The weather forecast for Saturday calls for a high temperature of 62 under partly cloudy skies.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/14/2011 11:38 PM

Upsets force books to adjust

November 14, 2011

All season long, Scott Wolf of the LA Daily Press has been voting Boise State No. 1 in the AP Poll until last week when TCU went for a gutsy two-point conversion at the end of the game to beat the Broncos 36-35 on the road. The win ended Boise State’s record 65-game winning streak at home and gave them only their fourth loss since 2007, all of which have come by three points or less. It also ended a reign of publicity, or rather mockery, of Wolf’s lone vote. LSU is now the unanimous No. 1 team in the nation in the writers’ poll, the first time everyone has voted the same since 2008 when it was Texas in the top spot.

The last few years, teams like TCU and Boise State have always evoked contrarian thinkers -- those who want to go against the SEC grain -- saying they deserve a shot at the national title. In Wolf’s case, he really didn’t have any backing for his No. 1 vote all season other than saying Boise State deserved a shot because they consistently beat everyone put in front of them. Fans along the West Coast agree to a certain degree just because they feel left out of the East Coast bias equation that always seems to favor SEC teams.

So who does the anti-SEC establishment cheer for now? Who is the underdog that will garner support like TCU and Boise State has the last few years? How about the undefeated Houston Cougars.

Houston is currently one of three undefeated teams and have a BCS ranking of No. 11 (.5673 average), a ranking that if held up would get itself into a BCS bowl. By being the C-USA champions and in the top-12, Houston would make it as a non-automatic qualifying conference.

Meanwhile, Boise State with its loss looks like they’re going from the BCS mix all the way to the Poinsettia Bowl, which is a shame considering unranked Cincinnati from the Big East gets an automatic bid. The Big East doesn’t have one team ranked in the BCS Top-25.

As for Houston, it’s not out of the woods yet. In fact, the toughest part of its schedule is about to come. The school plays SMU this week with pressure of having the ESPN Game Day crew on campus (there aren’t very many marquee games this week) and then have to travel to Tulsa, who are tied with the Cougars at 6-0 in the West division. Should the Cougars get through all of that, they'll face No. 20 Southern Miss (9-1) in the conference title game.

The bottom line for Houston, just like TCU and Boise State over the years, is that the Cougars have handled everything in front of them and have compiled the No. 1 passing and scoring offense in the nation in doing so.

While it might be too outlandish to suggest they should play for the BCS Championship, if being one of only two undefeated teams in the nation, there will be some excitement of seeing them face off against a team from a major conference. If things all unfold their way, Houston would be facing Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.

Here’s a look at the Possible BCS Bowl matchups based on where they are now:

BCS National Championship: LSU vs. Oklahoma State
Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Houston
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Stanford
Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Cincinnati

Las Vegas Hilton BCS Odds

LSU is the 5/7 favorite (Bet $70 to win $50) followed by Alabama (8/5), Oklahoma State (9/2), Oklahoma (10/1), Oregon (10/1), Arkansas (20/1), Clemson (30/1) and Stanford (60/1). Judging by the odds, it appears that Jay Kornegay and the Hilton crew have a lean towards Oklahoma beating Oklahoma State in two weeks and aren’t ruling out the possibility that Arkansas might beat LSU next week.

They could have extended risk on Alabama keeping the odds low, but outside looking in, it appears they believe we’ll see an LSU-Alabama rematch for the title game. If thinking Houston can somehow get past all the red tape and have all kinds of decisions fall their way the next two weeks, you can get them as part of the FIELD at 1000/1.

Sports Books enjoy another College Football Saturday

The Las Vegas sport books had a good week of college football with a tough schedule for players to figure out. The favorites went 28-27-2 over the week with 16 of the underdogs winning outright. The liability coming into the weekend made it an uphill to climb with the four favorites all covering in Thursday and Friday night games, but one of the 16 upsets on the day found a way a few to eliminate that risk.

Right out the gate Saturday morning, Purdue (+7) and Pittsburgh (+3) winning was a bad decision for most players. Most bettors felt that Boise State (-15) would shine in their first real test of the season since its season opener against Georgia, but instead became one of the biggest upsets of the day.

The Mountain West also provided three other upsets that helped the books with San Diego State (-13 ½) losing to Colorado State, Air Force (-16) losing to Wyoming and UNLV (-7) falling at New Mexico. With Air Force, the books not only beat the small public play, but also sharp money.

Mississippi State (+18 ½), Washington State (+12) and Colorado (+10 ½) were also good decisions for the house.

Surprisingly, on the most heavily bet game of the day, the public wasn’t on the favorite. Oregon (+3) to the OVER (66) was the most popular combination and it got there quite easily as the Ducks speed overwhelmed Stanford on their home turf.

This week we don’t have a “Game of the Year” and it’s hard to even tell what the game of the week is. But there are quite a few intrastate rivalry games and others that play for trophies across state lines that should spark some interest.

The books have had their way the last couple of weeks, so it’s time to turn the tables. Stay focused and most of all, you should be confident when going to the windows. If you’re indecisive on a game, don’t play it. Just because it’s on TV doesn’t mean it has to be played.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/14/2011 11:40 PM

Pac 12 Notebook

November 14, 2011

Week 11 Rewind

The outcomes in the Pac 12 this past weekend were different than the last two weeks where only one game was decided by single digits each week.

This week none were!

The game that everyone was anticipating ended up being competitive for a half. Oregon took care of Stanford by 23 points (53-30) despite getting outgained 400-387. The Ducks took advantage of five Stanford turnovers and turned three of those into touchdowns. The Cardinal has now lost just twice in 23 games, both coming against Oregon.

Colorado picked up its first ever Pac 12 victory with a resounding 48-29 win over Arizona. The Buffaloes racked up 500 total yards, only the second time they have gained at least 500 yards this season. Colorado held the Wildcats to 60 yards rushing on 23 carries (2.6 ypc) while its own offense ran for 273 yards on 45 carries (6.1 ypc).

USC outgained Washington 426-244 and allowed just one drive of more than four plays in the first half. The Trojans jumped ahead 30-3 as they returned the opening kickoff of the second half for a touchdown and eased off the pedal for a 40-17 win. USC is averaging 39.8 points per game in its last six games after averaging 25.5 PPG in its first four games.

After falling into the situation of controlling its own destiny, UCLA returned to its old form and was shellacked 31-6 at Utah. The Bruins actually outgained the Utes 295-291 but were hurt with two interceptions, two fourth down failures and a missed field goal that resulted in 175 'empty' yards.

California became bowl eligible with a rather easy 23-6 win against Oregon State. The Golden Bears outgained the Beavers 424-270 and it was the rushing advantage that was most prominent. California rushed for 296 yards on 46 carries (6.4 ypc) while the Beavers were held to 27 yards on 21 carries (1.3 ypc).

The biggest upset took place in Pullman as Washington State took down Arizona State 37-11 as an 11 1/2-point underdog. The Cougars outgained the Sun Devils 598-411 as freshman quarterback Connor Halliday threw for 494 yards and four scores. It should be noted however the game was played on a snowy field.

Pac 12 South Debacle

As mentioned, UCLA controlled its own destiny in the Pac 12 South but a loss at Utah made the division even more of a mess. The Trojans are ineligible so even though they are in first place, it means nothing.

A few hours after the UCLA loss, Arizona State lost which put the Bruins back in the drivers’ seat. UCLA holds the tiebreaker over the Sun Devils because of the head-to-head win but the Bruins close the season at USC so winning out is not likely.

The Sun Devils last two games are at home so they have a good shot at a strong finish.

Don't forget about Utah though. The Utes close with games against Washington State and Colorado so should they win out and both UCLA and Arizona State lose once, the Utes will face the North Division winner in the inaugural Pac 12 Championship.

Going Bowling

Six of the 12 teams in the conference are bowl eligible with Utah and California locking up spots this past weekend. They join Oregon, Stanford, Washington and Arizona State as the only teams eligible for the postseason.

UCLA needs one more win while Washington State needs two more wins to join the group. The Cougars upset of Arizona State kept them alive and they must win out with a home game against Utah this week and then facing Washington in the season finale in the Apple Cup.

That game is not a true road game as it takes place at Qwest Field with Husky Stadium undergoing renovations.

"We've been talking about this, particularly the last few weeks," Cougars head coach Paul Wulff said, "to continue to improve our aggression, to continue to play at a high level for four quarters and to play with more attitude on a consistent basis."

He may need his team to win out in order to save his job.

Game of the Week

The game of the week has the second highest point-spread of the six conference games on Saturday but it has the makings of a good one.

USC is playing very solid despite the fact it is not eligible for any postseason games. The offense is clicking at a high caliber right now and it will need to continue that in order to keep up with Oregon.

You only need to look back to last season to prove that as USC took the lead on the Ducks early in the third quarter 32-29 but Oregon ran off 24 unanswered points to end the game as the Trojans offense stalled with two turnovers on downs, an interception and a punt in their final four possessions.

The one edge for USC is a possible letdown by Oregon following the win at Stanford.

The Ducks are listed as 14 1/2-point favorites.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/14/2011 11:42 PM

NIU aims for 6th straight victory Tuesday

BALL STATE CARDINALS (6-4)
at NORTHERN ILLINOIS HUSKIES (7-3)

Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Northern Illinois -19

Northern Illinois goes for its sixth straight win on Tuesday when it hosts a Ball State team that has piled up four consecutive ATS victories (3-1 SU).

The Huskies are rolling on offense, tallying 45.2 PPG in MAC play, while the Cardinals have amassed 99 points in the past three games. Considering both teams are horrible defensively (NIU: 438 YPG, 33.4 PPG and Ball State: 491 YPG, 33.0 PPG), this has all the makings of a shootout. And this plays into the hands of the team with the better quarterback, and that advantage clearly belongs to NIU with Chandler Harnish (20 TD, 4 INT) over BSU’s Keith Wenning (15 TD, 9 INT). The Cardinals are 13-5 ATS (72%) on the road since 2009, but the Huskies are 11-3 ATS (79%) in conference play over the past two years, and are 9-3 SU (7-5 ATS) in the past dozen meetings with Ball State. The spread is hefty, but expect NORTHERN ILLINOIS to cover it on Tuesday night.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Huskies.

Play Against - A road team (BALL STATE) - after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game against opponent after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games. (54-17 over the last 10 seasons.) (76.1%, +35.3 units. Rating = 4*).

After not throwing a single touchdown pass during a three-game stretch, Wenning has picked up his game, tossing 8 TD with 944 passing yards (315 YPG) in the past three contests. Senior WR Briggs Orsbon has three of those touchdowns as part of 25 catches for 238 yards in the past three games. Despite the four-game ATS win streak, the Cardinals defense has allowed 523 total YPG and 30.8 PPG in these four contests. The reason they are hanging in ball games is because of an opportunistic defense that has forced 10 turnovers in the past four weeks. But the Huskies don’t give the ball up much, with just one turnover in the past three games.

NIU’s defense has been nothing to boast about either, but it has been far better at home (22.0 PPG, 293 YPG) than away (40.2 PPG, 536 YPG) this season. Harnish has been eating up yardage both running and passing during the five-game win streak, totaling 1,670 yards (1,025 passing, 645 rushing) and a dozen touchdowns. He has also played pretty well in his career against Ball State, completing 24-of-31 passes (77%) for 307 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT in the past two meetings (both wins).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/15/2011 07:14 PM

Tuesday, November 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Ball State - 8:00 PM ET Ball State +18 500

Northern Illinois - Under 72.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/15/2011 07:26 PM

Boston College At Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will host the Boston College Eagles this Saturday in their final home game of the season at South Bend.

Notre Dame is currently a 24½-point favorite over the Eagles on the Don Best odds screen, up a half-point from the opener. Saturday’s game is set to start at 4:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on NBC.

While the Fighting Irish just barely cracked the AP Top 25 at No. 24 this week and failed to crack the BCS Top 25, the Don Best Linemakers Poll gave them their share of respect at No. 13 (tied with Virginia Tech in that spot). Boston College is unranked.

Notre Dame (7-3) has strung together three straight wins (2-1 ATS) after suffering its last loss against USC. Last week against Maryland, the offense had a big day with Tommy Rees passing for 296 yards and two touchdowns and Jonas Gray rushing for 136 yards and two touchdowns in the 45-21 win.

One of the key’s to Notre Dame’s 508-yard day against Maryland was an up-tempo, no-huddle offense. Brian Kelly’s offense has clearly started to take form as the season has gone on; the Irish averaged 24.3 points per game through their first four games and have averaged 39.8 points per game over their last six.

Boston College (3-7) picked up its second win in the last three games this past Saturday, narrowly holding on to a 14-10 win at home against North Carolina State as a 1½-point favorite.

The Eagles have been completely anemic on offense all season long. They rank 113th in the country in scoring offense with just 18 points per game, and if you take away the 45-17 win over FCS opponent Massachusetts, that number falls to 15 points per game. For Boston College to put up a fight this week, the Eagles will need to find a way to run the ball on Notre Dame’s suspect rushing defense.

In last year’s matchup against Notre Dame, Boston College managed only five rushing yards and lost 31-13. The Eagles are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against Notre Dame, but Notre Dame appears to be turning the tables on the rivalry as they’ve won in each of the last two meetings between these two teams and are a decisive favorite this week.

Still, the Irish shouldn’t sleep on this game or get caught looking ahead to Stanford next week; Boston College is 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against Notre Dame in South Bend.

Each of the last four games between Notre Dame and Boston College have gone ‘under’ the total, with this week's number starting at 47 points. Due to Boston College’s dreadful offense and solid defense, the Eagles have gone ‘under’ the total in all nine of their games against FBS opponents this season.

Weather could play a role in this one with a 30 percent chance of showers in the forecast. Afternoon temps are expected to just creep into the 50s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:27327 Followers:33
11/15/2011 07:27 PM

Arkansas, Mississippi State in SEC Betting Clash

Whenever two teams from the SEC West get-together, NCAA football betting fans flock to the game, knowing that it is going to be an intense, physical contest. This week's clash should be no exception, as the Arkansas Razorbacks put their BCS bowl hopes on the line against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

This matchup from War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock is the showcase SEC game on CBS, and will be shown live at 3:30 p.m. (ET).

Mississippi State (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) knows that it needs one more win to qualify for a bowl game this season. The likelihood is that the Bulldogs will get that victory next week against the Ole Miss Rebels in the Egg Bowl, but they would love to leave nothing to chance by pulling off the upset in this one.

Don't confuse this team for your average .500 squad, though. MSU hung in there with the Alabama Crimson Tide for the full 60 minutes last week before dropping 24-7.

Expect to see a rotating quarterback system used by head coach Dan Mullen in this one. Chris Relf, Tyler Russell and Dylan Favre all saw time against the Crimson Tide, and all three should once again take snaps to try to keep up with Arkansas' potent offense.

If the Bulldogs are to win this game though, it is going to be because of their defense. Though they allowed 386 yards to the Crimson Tide, they did a nice job bending without breaking in their own territory, forcing the visitors to try to kick field goals instead of getting touchdowns.

This has really been the theme all season long for Mississippi State. The defense is allowing 353.0 YPG, No. 40 in the country, but because of its strong play in its own territory, particularly in the red zone, the Bulldogs rank No. 17 in scoring at 19.2 PPG allowed.

It is a safe bet that the Razorbacks (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) hope to score more than 19 points in this one if they are going to continue their march towards the BCS. They have only had one game this year – in Tuscaloosa, no less – in which they have scored fewer than 29 points, and they have scored at least 42 in half of their games.

The men to really keep an eye on in this offense are Dennis Johnson and Jarius Wright.

Wright has at least four catches in all but one of his games this year, and already has four 100+ yard efforts. He has found the end zone 10 times on the campaign, including four scores in the last three games.

Johnson started getting more carries four weeks ago against Ole Miss, and hasn't looked back since that point. He has tallied 395 yards and three TDs over his last four games, and he has pitched in as a receiver for an average of 36.9 YPG since the start of October as well.

Last year, the Hogs were able to escape from Starkville with a 38-31 overtime victory. Though Mississippi State has only won one game in this series in the last decade, these two teams have split the last 10 meetings from an ATS vantage point.

The home team is 8-1 ATS over the last nine meetings, but the underdog is 11-5 ATS in the last 16.

Four straight between these SEC West rivals have exceeded the total.

On Saturday, the Razorbacks are laying 13 points in Little Rock. The total has held firm since the start of the week at 53½.

There is a modest 30 percent chance of rain on Saturday afternoon in Little Rock, but if Mother Nature holds off, it should be a nice day. Expect temperatures in the mid-60s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: