11/17/2011 07:01 PM
College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 12
Southern Miss Eagles at UAB Blazers (+23, 62.5)
Why Southern Miss will cover: USM is 7-1 ATS in its last eight, and UAB is outmatched in every phase, ranking in the bottom 25 in every defensive category.
Why UAB will cover: The Blazers may not win, but they can come close enough, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight. A passing game that ranks 54th has kept them around.
Points: USM should score big, and UAB is a good catch-up team.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Tech Hokies (-10.5, 47)
Why North Carolina will cover: The Hokies are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine. Virginia Tech likes to run, and UNC is 18th nationally at stopping it. The offense is good enough to keep the team in the game.
Why Virginia Tech will cover: The defense has stifled better offenses and the Hokies average 226 yards passing and 207 yards rushing, putting a lot of pressure on a mediocre UNC unit. Plus, who’s going to go against the Hokies at home, at night?
Points: The over has hit in three of UNC’s last four and is 3-1-1 for VT lately.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (+26.5, 66)
Why Oklahoma State will cover: The Cowboys are on a roll ATS, 8-1 in their last nine. The offense, which ranks No. 2 in scoring and passing, has overwhelmed everyone, and ISU isn’t particularly great at stopping it. The Cyclones are 2-6 ATS in its last eight Big 12 games.
Why Iowa State will cover: The Cyclones can run the ball, averaging 183 ypg. Keeping OSU’s offense off the field is critical.
Points: Despite the high-scoring offense, the under has been the trend for OSU games, as well as ISU.
Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans (-28.5, 53)
Why Indiana will cover: Michigan State prefers to throw more than run and Indiana, if it has a strength, it’s pass defense.
Why Michigan State will cover: MSU ranks 12th or higher in every defensive category, so it’s a mystery how the Hoosiers will get into the end zone. The Spartans offense has scored 28 or more four of the last five weeks.
Points: The over has hit in IU’s last five and in three of MSU’s last four.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines (-2.5, 50.5)
Why Nebraska will cover: The Huskers are 12th in rushing and the defense has improved by leaps and bounds lately.
Why Michigan will cover: The Wolverines, meanwhile, are 13th in rushing. But unlike Nebraska (66th), Michigan is adept at also stopping the ground game, ranking 36th.
Points: The under is 6-2 when Michigan has been a favorite and has hit four straight for both teams. There’s going to be a lot of running the rock.
Wisconsin Badgers at Illinois Fighting Illini (+14, 52)
Why Wisconsin will cover: The Badgers control their own Big Ten destiny, and appear back on track after a two-week hiccup. They rank No. 4 in scoring (46.5 ppg) and No. 6 in scoring defense (15.8 ppg). They do half that well and they’ll cover.
Why Illinois will cover: The Illini has been solid at slowing down opponent rushing attacks. If they can do it and get their own ground attack going, anything can happen.
Points: The over has hit in six of the last eight meetings, though the under has hit in Illinois’ last four.
Kentucky Wildcats at Georgia Bulldogs (-30.5, 48)
Why Kentucky will cover: The Wildcats must win their final two games to become bowl eligible. They should at least give it their all. The defense is good enough to hang around.
Why Georgia will cover: Georgia should stifle UK’s offense in every way and its own balanced offense may simply be too much. The Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall and as favorites.
Points: The under is 5-2 in UGA’s last seven but the over is 4-1 in UK’s last five.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Duke Blue Devils (+10.5, 55)
Why Georgia Tech will cover: Duke can only move the ball through the air, and GT’s defensive strength is slowing the pass (16th). Duke’s depth isn’t conducive to Tech’s punishing run attack.
Why Duke will cover: Four of Duke’s seven losses have come by 10 points or less. The team passes a lot.
Points: The under is 10-2-1 in Duke’s last 13 and hit in four straight for GT before last week’s over (by 1.5 points).
SMU Mustangs at Houston Cougars (-19.5, 77.5)
Why SMU will cover: While not as explosive as Houston, SMU can throw the ball (18th in passing) and has the potential to erupt.
Why Houston will cover: Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last five despite spreads of 24 or more the last four. The Cougars score fast and often and don’t let up.
Points: Houston has scored 56 or more four straight games, and SMU can do its part when it’s on.
Clemson Tigers at North Carolina State Wolfpack (+7.5, 52.5)
Why Clemson will cover: The Tigers have the firepower on offense to run away from the Wolfpack. And once they get a lead, their 20th-ranked pass defense will do the rest.
Why North Carolina State will cover: Clemson lost and barely won in its last two games after the strong start; perhaps NC State found a chink that can help keep the game close. The road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings, for what it’s worth.
Points: The under is 4-0 in NC State last four.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes (-6.5, 39)
Why Penn State will cover: All distractions aside, the Lions’ defense stills ranks No. 3 in scoring (12.9 ppg) and No. 5 against the pass (167.7 ypg).
Why Ohio State will cover: The Buckeyes had won three in a row before last week’s debacle at Purdue. Still, OSU appears on the way up, and Penn State certainly does not.
Points: Both teams struggle mightily on offense, but that number is pretty low. The over has hit in OSU’s last three.
Colorado State Rams at TCU Horned Frogs (-33, 58)
Why Colorado State will cover: While the Rams haven’t been great, they’ve been in all but one game this season (Boise St.).
Why TCU will cover: TCU is 23rd in rushing (208 ypg), while CSU is 113th at stopping it. CSU is 2-9 ATS in its last 11.
Points: The over is 8-2 in TCU’s last 10, and is unlikely to be slowed on this day.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks (-13, 53.5)
Why Mississippi State will cover: MSU’s defense is a solid 14th against the pass, matching up with Arkansas’ offensive strength. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last four.
Why Arkansas will cover: The Razorbacks’ offense has run around the competition lately, and the team is 4-2 ATS in its last six. An underrated defense ranks 30th in points allowed, and MSU struggles to score anyway.
Points: The under is 6-2 in MSU’s last eight, but the over is 6-2 in Arkansas’ last eight.
Boston College Eagles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-24.5, 47.5)
Why Boston College will cover: The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. B.C. will try to run the ball, shortening the game.
Why Notre Dame will cover: Notre Dame has no major strengths, but no major weaknesses, either. Boston College’s defense is ordinary, but the offense has been unproductive. Notre Dame faced similar spreads in two of its last three games, and covered both.
Points: The under is 5-0-1 in B.C.’s last six, and Notre Dame’s defense has improved of late.
LSU Tigers at Mississippi Rebels (+28.5, 46.5)
Why LSU will cover: Ole Miss has given up on the season and its coach, who has resigned effective at the end of the season. It’s hard to imagine the Rebels’ anemic offense scoring on the Tigers’ second-ranked defense.
Why Mississippi will cover: Maybe LSU comes in bored. Or maybe the Rebels’ new QB and RB – the usual starters are suspended – provide some spark.
Points: The under has been hitting for both teams of late.
Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State Seminoles (-17, 47)
Why Virginia will cover: The Cavs have covered in four of their last five, led by a ground game that milks the clock and a defense that’s allowed 13-21 points in five of the last six.
Why Florida State will cover: The Seminoles’ strengths — pass offense, run defense — match up perfectly with Virginia’s weaknesses — pass defense, run offense.
Points: The under is 7-1 in Virginia’s last eight, 3-0 in FSU’s last three and 8-0 in the last eight meetings.
Boise State Broncos at San Diego State Aztecs (+18.5, 55.5)
Why Boise State will cover: The Broncos have something to prove after the last-second loss to TCU. The Aztecs are 1-5 ATS in their last six.
Why San Diego State will cover: Boise State is faltering, 0-3 ATS in its last three. And the Aztecs do average 190 rushing and 218 passing per game.
Points: Boise State is due to for another breakout, and the over is 5-0 in its last five. SDSU can score, too.
USC Trojans at Oregon Ducks (-15.5, 67)
Why USC will cover: USC is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 on the road, and while Oregon’s run offense is great (fifth), USC’s run defense (eighth) is also strong. The Trojans’ passing game has the potential to overpower anyone.
Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks are 5-1-1 ATS, including last week’s beatdown of Stanford. USC’s pass defense is 100th, and Oregon’s offense will prevent the Trojans from focusing on one thing.
Points: It could be an entertaining shootout.
Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (+15.5, 75)
Why Oklahoma will cover: Oklahoma’s offense is just as powerful, and more balanced, than Baylor’s, and the defense is light years better. The road team is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Why Baylor will cover: Baylor’s passing offense is sixth nationally (357 ypg), while OU is 71st at stopping it. The Bears are just 1-3 on the road, but undefeated at home.
Points: Both teams should struggle to stop the other. The over is 6-1-1 for Baylor and 5-2 in OU’s last seven.
Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns (-9.5, 53.5)
Why Kansas State will cover: No ranked team has been more disrespected by the pollsters than K-State, but the Wildcats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine. The team can run the ball (22nd) and stop the run (26th), and it’s worked.
Why Texas will cover: The Longhorns are even better at running the ball (15th) and stopping the run (10th), and are at home, at night. Plus, Texas can also throw the ball and play pass defense, something K-State has been unable to do with consistency.
Points: Both teams can score, but both like to use a clock-draining ground game to do it.
California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal (-19, 55.5)
Why California will cover: Stanford still struggles to slow the pass, which is Cal’s strength on offense. The Bears are decent across the board on defense. Not great, but decent.
Why Stanford will cover: Stanford had covered every game until last week’s loss to Oregon. The Cardinal is stronger on both sides of the ball than the Bears, and should come out fired up.
Points: While Stanford has been hitting the over, the under is 7-0 in Cal’s last seven.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: