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Cnotes preseason thread with stats-trends- qb rotation etc. !!
HERE IS YOUR QB ROTATION DURING PRESEASON SOMETHING GOOD TO KNOW.....THE STARTERS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF GAMES USUALLY GO 1 OR 2 SERIES THEN OUT TO THE BACK UPS.
Preseason Report - NFC
July 25, 2014
Coaches · AFC · NFC
Head Coach: Jason Garrett
Quarterback Rotation: Tony Romo, Brandon Weeden, Caleb Hanie, Dustin Vaughan (Rookie West Texas A&M)
Garrett and the Cowboys have not fared well in the preseason going 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 regular preseason games. Plus a total trend to watch for this preseason is that the Cowboys seem to just want to go thru the motions in their final game as the UNDER has gone 3-1 the last four years.
New York Giants
Head Coach: Tom Coughlin
Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Ryan Nassib, Curtis Painter
A solid money-making trend has shown up for the Giants as of late as Tom Coughlin in the past four years has seemed to put no effort in the Giants dress rehearsal game as the Giants are 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. This year’s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 22 against the Jets.
Head Coach: Chip Kelly
Quarterback Rotation: Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley, G. J. Kinne
There is not too much to look at for any preseason trends for head coach Chip Kelly. In his first year the Eagles went 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. However, the OVER went 3-1 in those games, which is something to keep an eye on as the Eagles preseason begins. Also, one thing that carried over from the Reid era is that the Eagles again lost their first preseason game which makes them 1-8 against the spread in the last nine opening preseason games. Philadelphia’s preseason opener this year is on Aug. 8 at Chicago.
Head Coach: Jay Gruden
Quarterback Rotation: Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy
Some solid trends going for the Redskins that Jay Gruden may went to build on. Washington went a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in last year’s preseason games, and they also have been money in their dress rehearsal games the last four years going 4-0 against the spread. This year’s dress rehearsal game for the Redskins is on Aug. 23 at Baltimore.
Head Coach: Marc Trestman
Quarterback Rotation: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen, Jordan Palmer, David Fales (Rookie San Jose State)
In Trestman’s first year as head coach of the Bears – his prior offensive coordinator experience paid off as three of the four Bears games saw the OVER connect. In their dress rehearsal game against the Raiders the Bears scored a whopping 34 points. So let’s look for more wide-open play from Chicago as we head into this year’s preseason.
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell
Quarterback Rotation: Matthew Stafford, Kellen Moore, Dan Orlovsky, James Franklin (Rookie Missouri)
In the past two preseasons the Lions saw the OVER go a money making 6-2 – something I feel will continue with Caldwell now the Lions new head coach. Let’s not forget Caldwell tutored a pair of quality quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco – So offense is his forte. Just keep an eye on how the Lions come out offensively in their early preseason games.
Green Bay Packers
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy
Quarterback Rotation: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, Chase Rettig (Rookie Boston College)
Mike McCarthy and the Packers used to have a great preseason trend where the OVER hit at a super high rate – however the oddsmakers have finally caught up with this trend and now overvalue the OVER posted in the Green Bay games – resulting in the UNDER going 6-2 in the past two preseasons. So I would recommend that you take advantage of these high posted totals and lean towards the UNDER going forward. Plus another trend to watch this preseason is that the Packers have lost their opening preseason game the past four years. This year’s opener is on Aug. 9 at Tennessee.
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer
Quarterback Rotation: Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater (Rookie Louisville)
With Mike Zimmer taking over as coach of the Vikings, look for defense to be the forefront this preseason as Zimmer has been a defensive coordinator the last 14 years in the NFL. In his last two seasons as coordinator of the Bengals the UNDER was the easy winner in the Bengals dress rehearsal games. Look for this to continue this year in the Vikings dress rehearsal game on Aug. 23 at Kansas City.
Head Coach: Mike Smith
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, T.J. Yates, Sean Renfree, Jeff Mathews (Rookie Cornell)
One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game. In the last nine years, the Falcons have gone 8-1 outscoring their opposition 203-88 not counting the 2011 abnormal preseason. This year’s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 23 when they play Tennessee at home. After last year’s down season I really look for the Falcons to be very motivated coming into this dress rehearsal game and use it as a starting point to get the season on a winning note. However if we take a look at the whole body of work for the Falcons over the past two preseasons we will see that they have lost seven of their eight preseason games played – with their only win coming in the above mentioned dress rehearsal game. And one last thing about Atlanta here is that in their first preseason game the past three years they have been dominated losing all while allowing 34, 31, and 28 points, which also made all three of these games fly OVER the posted total.
Head Coach: Ron Rivera
Quarterback Rotation: Cam Newton (Injury- Ankle), Derek Anderson, Matt Blanchard, Joe Webb
A couple of trends have started to develop with Rivera settling in as head coach in the preseason for the Panthers. First off Rivera seems to want to look good in his dress rehearsal game going 2-0 the past two years. While in the fourth and final game, Rivera seems to just want to get this game over with as the UNDER has been the winning play the past two years. Both of these preseason finales have been against the Steelers which they finish up again on Aug. 28.
New Orleans Saints
Head Coach: Sean Payton
Quarterback Rotation: Drew Brees, Ryan Griffin, Luke McCown, Logan Kilgore (Rookie Middle Tennessee State)
A strong preseason trend we can follow with the Saints as their high octane offense sure gears up as the preseason progresses. In the past four seasons the Saints have seen the OVER go a perfect 8-0 in their last two preseason games (Week 3 & 4) of the year with 51, 57, 60, 41, 51, 61, 54, and 45 points scored. This year the Saints finish up with Indianapolis on Aug. 23 and Baltimore on Aug. 28.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Head Coach: Lovie Smith
Quarterback Rotation: Mike Glennon, Mike Kafka, Josh McCown, Alex Tanney
In his last two years in Chicago Lovie Smith had winning preseasons going 6-2 against the spread. I can see him wanting to get a winning attitude right off the bat in Tampa Bay – so let’s look for the Buccaneers to be a team to bet this preseason. Plus the Buccaneers used to be one of my favorite trend plays in the preseason as they were 6-2 against the spread in their first preseason game – this might be something to look into as Smith will want to win his first game as the Buccaneers head coach, especially in front of the home crowd on Aug. 8th against the Eagles.
Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Quarterback Rotation: Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, Logan Thomas (Rookie Virginia Tech)
Only one year of stats for Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians for us to look at, however Arizona went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in its four preseasons games from a year ago, with the UNDER also going 3-1. Something to keep an eye out for as this year’s preseason begins.
Whether its preseason or regular season games, Jim Harbaugh wants to win every time his team takes the field. This sure has been a solid money maker the last two preseasons as the 49ers have gone 6-2 both straight up and against the spread. It is also important to post here that in this same timeframe San Francisco has seen the UNDER be the right play on both of their first two preseason games the past two years – while just the opposite is true as in their dress rehearsal game and final preseason game the OVER was the winning play. Making for a solid 8-0 run for us to look forward to this year.
Head Coach: Pete Carroll
Quarterback Rotation: Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, Terrelle Pryor, B. J. Daniels
Usually we like to fade the Super Bowl champions in the proceeding preseason – as how can a team be up for these early meaningless games. However if there is one exception it’s sure the Seahawks under Carroll – as Seattle is a money making 11-1 both straight up and against the spread the past three years. Top rated preseason trend in effect here especially when you throw in this year’s quarterback rotation.
St. Louis Rams
Head Coach: Jeff Fisher
Quarterback Rotation: Sam Bradford, Shaun Hill, Garrett Gilbert (Rookie SMU), Austin Davis
In his return to coaching Jeff Fisher has already shown us a trend that can help make us some money this preseason – as the OVER has gone 6-2 in the eight preseason games the Rams have played with Fisher calling the shots. The one other trend I found was that Fisher sure tries in the Rams dress rehearsal game where St. Louis is a perfect 2-0 ATS with both of these games being played on the road – this year’s dress rehearsal game is on the road again as the Rams visit Cleveland on Aug. 23.
Quarterback Rotation: E.J. Manuel, Jeff Tuel, Dennis Dixon, Thad Lewis
Doug Marrone enters his second season as Buffalo’s head coach. He’s been in the NFL for seven years, from 2006-08 he served as the offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints after a four-year span as the offensive line coach of the New York Jets (2002-05). With this being only Doug Marrone’s second year as a Head Coach: we don’t have much to go on for his preseason trends – however I’ve isolated something that may give us a solid play for the Bills this preseason. Since he's still a fairly new head coach, I can see Marrone wanting to impress the home crowd in his first home game this preseason and this is backed by a strong recent trend for the Bills in the preseason – as Buffalo is 4-0 against the spread in their first home preseason game of the year last four years.
New York Jets
Head Coach: Rex Ryan
Quarterback Rotation: Geno Smith, Michael Vick, Matt Simms, Tajh Boyd (Rookie Clemson)
The Jets have been consistent in their first and last preseason games over the last four years. Rex Ryan has never put any effort in the Jets opening preseason game, evidenced by their 0-4 against the spread. While in their last preseason game of the year Ryan and the Jets defensive coaches sure take the day off as the Jets have seen the OVER go 4-0 since 2010. So right off the bat here we have a perfect 8-0 trend on the Jets to keep an eye on this preseason.
Head Coach: Joe Philbin
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin, Brock Jensen – (Rookie - North Dakota State)
This will be Philbin’s third year as head coach of the Dolphins, after going over his first two preseason campaigns, it’s very apparent that he puts very little effort into winning these meaningless games. In his first nine preseason games the Dolphins are a woeful 1-8 against the spread with their only win coming against the hapless Jaguars. So let’s make the Dolphins a definite fade this preseason.
New England Patriots
Head Coach: Bill Belichick
Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Garoppolo (Rookie - Eastern Illinois)
Here is one of my top rated preseason plays, and it focuses on coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Belichick has never liked to give anything away to his opponents – just look at one of his press conferences to see what I mean – well something shows up in the preseason every year from New England that we can take advantage of. Week 3 of the preseason is when all teams do their dress rehearsal for the season with all starters on both sides of the ball playing into the third quarter. Well again Belichick doesn’t want his regular season Week 1 opponent to get any films to look at so he doesn’t take this game seriously – and it show shows up in the point spread logs as the Patriots over the past six seasons are a dismal 0-6 against the spread in this situation. Just to give you an example of how strong this is in last year’s dress rehearsal against the Lions, the Patriots were crushed 40-9 as one-point underdogs. So mark down Aug. 22 on your calendar as the Patriots host Carolina in their dress rehearsal game this year.
Head Coach: Mike Pettine
Quarterback Rotation: Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel (R Texas A&M), Tyler Thigpen, Connor Shaw (Rookie South Carolina)
With Pettine’s specialty being defense – let’s keep an eye out on the Browns UNDER this preseason – as he may concentrate on what he knows best trying to build the team. Another strong trend that has developed for Cleveland is its dress rehearsal games. The Browns are 0-3, losing all of these games both straight up and against the spread with the UNDER also going 3-0. One other note – when you see that Johnny Football will be getting the majority of the playing time in any of these Cleveland preseason games – I feel the Browns will be a solid bet – as his style will be perfect to easily move the ball up and down the field especially against the substitutes.
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin
Quarterback Rotation: Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, Landry Jones, Brandon Kay (Rookie Cincinnati)
The new CBA rules sure took its effect on the Steelers in last year’s preseason – with Tomlin not being able to incorporate his usual intense training camp, and it showed on the field as the Steelers went 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. Something to watch for as the preseason starts this year. Plus the Steelers are on a 0-4 run in their preseason home games over the past two years all as a favorite, and 1-7 ATS overall.
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis
Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, Jason Campbell, AJ McCarron (Rookie Alabama), Matt Scott
With the Bengals being a consistent playoff team – Lewis doesn’t take these preseason games too seriously – however a strong trend has developed in the Bengals first home preseason game over the past four years – where the Bengals are a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread – so it sure looks like Lewis wants to win this first home game for the fans. The Bengals first home game this year is on Aug. 14 versus the Jets.
Head Coach: John Harbaugh
Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Keith Wenning (Rookie Ball State)
Here we have another team that has been effected with the new CBA rule changes – Harbaugh and the Ravens used to be a strong bet in the preseason as they mostly played low-scoring games making the UNDER the way to go. However with the less intense training camp routines now in place, the Ravens have seen the OVER go a money making 7-1 the past two preseasons. Strong trend to watch for again this year!!!
Head Coach: Bill O’Brien
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Tom Savage (R Pittsburgh)
O’Brien’s offensive experience may help us make some money with the Texans this preseason – As I found that Houston as seen the OVER be the winning play in their first preseason game the last 4 years. Plus the Texans have seen the OVER go 6-2 the past two years. So let’s look for some high-scoring games form the Texans this preseason.
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano
Quarterback Rotation: Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish
With Pagano as head coach, the Colts sure like to play a very wide-open game in their first preseason game of the year – as over the past two years a combined average of 52 points have been scored. And what a perfect opponent to open up with this year as the Jets, who have watched the OVER go 4-0 in their preseason games from a year ago. This year’s opening preseason game against the Jets will be played on Aug. 7.
Head Coach: Gus Bradley
Quarterback Rotation: Chad Henne, Blake Bortles (Rookie UCF), Ricky Stanzi, Stephen Morris (Rookie Miami)
The Jaguars have lost their dress rehearsal game in 2011 and 2012, and Gus Bradley sure continued this trend in his first year as head coach in 2013 as the Jaguars gave up 34 points against the Eagles in another double-digit loss. Let’s look for this strong trend to continue this season as Jacksonville pays a visit to Detroit on Aug. 22 for their dress rehearsal game. Plus, I have to add here that the Jaguars sure weren’t ready to play in their opening preseason game with Bradley as they were dominated at home against the Dolphins 27-3. Jacksonville’s first preseason game this year is on Aug. 8 against the Buccaneers (Tampa Bay is one of my strongest preseason plays as its a money making 6-2 ATS in its first preseason game) a perfect fit here against an underachieving Jaguars squad.
The Titans lost three of their four preseason games last season – this may be something to watch for again this year – as in his last year as the head coach of the Cardinals back in 2012, Whisenhunt went a perfect 0-4 against the spread. Plus Whisenhunt in his final two years as head coach in the preseason saw six of his last eight games go OVER the posted total.
Head Coach: John Fox
Quarterback Rotation: Payton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert, Bryn Renner (Rookie North Carolina)
Strong trend has developed since John Fox has taken over as the head coach of the Broncos, as Denver has come out strong in their opening preseason game going a perfect 3-0 with all three wins as an underdog. This preseason the Broncos open up against the Super Bowl champions Seahawks – who may have the Super Bowl hangover coming into this preseason. Plus the opposite is sure true in the Broncos dress rehearsal game under Fox where Denver has failed to cover the spread in all three games. This year’s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 23 against Houston.
Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 6-23 against the spread over the past seven years. I definitely look for more of the same this year as I look for Andy Reid to continue the tradition in Kansas City of not caring about these preseason games. Take a close look at the Chiefs first preseason game this year as Reid is 1-8 against the spread in his last nine opening preseason games in Philadelphia and Kansas City. Kansas City opens up this year at home against Cincinnati on Aug. 7.
Head Coach: Dennis Allen
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Schaub, Derek Carr (Rookie Fresno State), Matt McGloin, Trent Edwards
Allen has continued the Raiders losing ways in the preseason already losing six of the Raiders eight preseason games with him calling the shots. Plus no matter whom the head coach is of Oakland they always seem to finish the preseason on a down note – as in the past seven years they are a perfect 0-7 against the spread in their last preseason game of the year. This year’s finale for the Raiders is on Aug. 28 against the Seahawks at home.
San Diego Chargers
Head Coach: Mike McCoy
Quarterback Rotation: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Brad Sorensen
Now in his second season in San Diego, you can’t forget that Mike McCoy came from Denver where he was the offensive coordinator for the high powered Broncos offense. I’m curious to see what numbers the oddsmakers put up on the San Diego totals this preseason. As last preseason the Chargers under McCoy saw the OVER go 3-1. With McCoy’s offensive background watch for San Diego to continue their high scoring ways this preseason.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
Betting on the NFL preseason is one of the most profitable endeavors you can partake in this football season. The secret to making money in the preseason is the ability to know which coaches are trying to win and which coaches are just going through the motions. That factor in itself will give you a huge edge over the sportsbooks year after year.
Also, I can't say it enough but you also need to be familiar with the history of each team in August. Plus, keeping an eye out on each team's preseason quarterback rotations will also make you turn a nice profit in the preseason. Without further adieu, let's start handicapping!
As mentioned above coaching is key and you should be aware of this year's head coaching changes:
This season we have seven coaching changes coming into the 2014 season.
Here is this year’s list:
Cleveland Browns - Mike Pettine - Pettine joins the Browns after spending 2013 as the defensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills and the 2009-12 seasons as the defensive coordinator for the New York Jets.
Detroit Lions - Jim Caldwell - He was a head coach or coordinator in three Super Bowls with Indianapolis (XLI and XLIV) and Baltimore (XLVII) and won two Super Bowl titles (Indianapolis and Baltimore).
Houston Texans - Bill O’Brien comes in as the new head coach for the Texans – O’Brien was a member of the Patriots' coaching staff from 2007 where he rose from offensive assistant his first season to wide receivers coach in 2008 and then quarterbacks coach from 2009-10 prior to his promotion to offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach in 2011. He spent the last two year as the Penn State head coach.
Minnesota Vikings – Mike Zimmer takes over as the Vikings new head coach - A veteran defensive coordinator, Zimmer enters his 21st season on an NFL sideline, the past 14 working as defensive coordinator for Cincinnati (2008-13), Atlanta (2007) and Dallas (2000-06).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Lovie Smith is the new Tampa Bay head coach –Smith joins the Buccaneers after having spent nine seasons as the Chicago Bears head coach.
Tennessee Titans - Ken Whisenhunt is the new Tennessee head coach - Whisenhunt brings 17 seasons of NFL coaching experience to the Titans, including six years (2007-12) as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals.
Washington Redskins - Jay Gruden is the new Washington head coach – Gruden has been the Bengals offensive coordinator the past three seasons.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
It's never too early to start thinking about football again! The opening lines for Week 1 of the NFL were released this week and while we're still a month away from kickoff, we've already got football on our brains. We're offering our thoughts and analysis on Week 1 betting lines below.
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 2014
SEATTLE (-5) vs. Green Bay - Total: 45
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 7, 2014
ATLANTA (-2) vs. New Orleans - Total: 52
ST. LOUIS (-5) vs. Minnesota - Total: 46
PITTSBURGH (-5) vs. Cleveland - Total: 41
PHILADELPHIA (-11) vs. Jacksonville - Total: 52.5
NY JETS (-4.5) vs. Oakland - Total: 39.5
BALTIMORE (-2.5) vs. Cincinnati - Total: 43.5
CHICAGO (-6.5) vs. Buffalo - Total: 49
HOUSTON (-2.5) vs. Washington - Total: 46.5
KANSAS CITY (-5.5) vs. Tennessee - Total: 44
MIAMI (+3.5) over New England - Total: 47
TAMPA BAY (+2.5) vs. Carolina - Total: 40.5
DALLAS (+3.5) vs. San Francisco - Total: 48.5
DENVER (-7) vs. Indianapolis - Total: 55.5
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2014
DETROIT (-4) vs. NY Giants - Total: 45.5
ARIZONA (-3.5) vs. San Diego - Total: 44.5
*Home teams in BOLD
Green Bay (+5) may be a strong play on the opening night of the season. The Packers were a playoff team last year despite playing without star quarterback Aaron Rodgers for half the season. Rodgers returned in Week 17 and GB won the NFC North and lost to San Francisco in the Wild Card round on a 49ers game-winning field goal as time expired. Green Bay is 5-2 SU & ATS in season-opening games with Rodgers at the helm and the defending Super Bowl champions are just 2-3 ATS in the opening game of the season, losing the last two games outright (NY Giants in 2012 & Baltimore in 2013). The last defending Super Bowl champion to win its season opener was the Green Bay Packers in 2011. This line may be a little too high.
Another line that may be too high is the Denver (-7) over Indianapolis. The Broncos went to the Super Bowl a season ago and this line may be inflated due to that fact alone. Indy is off of a strong year in which it won the AFC South and a playoff game. The Colts, behind stud quarterback Andrew Luck, are a young squad that is ever-improving. They were one of only three teams to beat the Broncos last year as they handed Denver its first loss of the season on Sunday Night Football on October 20th. They get another shot at the Broncos in primetime and this could be another closely contested game.
Philadelphia owns the highest opening week line (-11) at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Eagles had a lot of things go right for them in 2013 - a weak NFC East, Nick Foles throwing 27 TD and only 2 INT - and they finished the season 7-1 and notched a playoff berth (lost at home to New Orleans in the Wild Card round). Jacksonville closed out the season 4-4 after an 0-8 start. The Jags showed solid improvement under first year coach Gus Bradley and the arrow is definitely pointing up. They closed out the season on a 4-1 ATS run on the road while Philly was just 4-4 SU & 3-5 ATS at home last season. This could be a solid situation for a play on the road underdog.
The lowest total in Week 1 is in the NY Jets-Oakland matchup at 39.5 points. Offensively it makes sense as the Jets averaged just 18.1 PPG (29th in the NFL) while the Raiders were just slightly better at 20.1 PPG (24th in the NFL) last season. However, neither of these teams were very strong defensively. The Jets were 19th in points allowed and the Raiders were 29th in points allowed. Who is going to stop the other?
- The OVER is 29-18-1 in Week 1 games over the last three seasons
- Week 1 double digit favorites are 4-6 ATS over the past eight seasons
- Week 1 Monday Night Football favorites are 6-10 ATS over the past eight seasons
- There is no discernible advantage to blindly betting underdogs in week one as the favorites have just a slight 65-62-1 ATS advantage over the past eight seasons
SOLID EARLY BETS
Arizona (-3.5) over San Diego
The Cardinals were 6-2 at home last season, losing only to Seattle and San Francisco, arguably the two best teams in the NFL in 2013. They had dominating wins over playoff squads Carolina (by 16 points) and Indianapolis (29 points) while adding solid wins over St. Louis (20 points) and Atlanta (14 points) for good measure. San Diego snuck into the playoffs with a 9-7 record last year after winning its final four games but could have a difficult time opening the season on the road here.
New Orleans (+2) over Atlanta
New Orleans won both meetings with Atlanta last year and is 8-2 SU against the Falcons since 2009. Atlanta endured a disastrous season in 2013 and while many tab the Falcons to be much improved in 2014, this is a tough way to kick off the season. The Saints ranked in the top five in both total offense and total defense last season. They won at Philadelphia in the Wild Card round and gave eventual Super Bowl champion Seattle a run for their money in the Divisional round. This is a solid underdog situation here.
UNDER 48.5 Dallas vs. San Francisco
The 49ers had just one game last year where the total was set higher than 48.5 (Week 11 at New Orleans). San Francisco allowed just 16.3 PPG over the final nine games of the season, including playoffs, and not one of those opponents exceeded 24 points. Dallas' defense was the worst in the NFL in yards allowed in 2013. They haven't done anything to improve that unit this offseason so it's a good bet that it'll be bad again. However, with San Francisco's run-heavy offense and solid defense, we don't expect that these two will be involved in a shootout.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
2013 Record: 12-4
Postseason: Lost 26-16 to Denver in AFC Conference Championship
Off YPG: 384 (7th)
Def YPG: 373 (26th)
Points scored: 444 (3rd)
Points allowed: 338 (10th)
2014 Total Win Analysis: LVH Total Win Opening Line - 10.5
Hard not to look to the OVER 10.5 wins here with the Patriots. Only once in the 13 years they've had Tom Brady as the starting QB have the Patriots not reached double digit wins. The one time they did not reach at least 10 wins was back in 2002 when they finished the year 9-7. Since 2002, Brady & Company have won 14, 14, 10, 12, 16, 11, 10, 14, 13, 12 and 12 regular season games. We don't see any reason that changes this year. They should easily win the fairly weak AFC East again in 2014. The Pats have remarkably won 34 of their last 43 division games dominating their AFC East counterparts (Jets, Bills, and Fins). They have a fairly tough draw in non AFC East games facing the NFC North and AFC West. However, we have them currently favored in at least 13 games this year. They definitely need to shore up their rush defense (30th in the NFL) to be a serious contender, but with their potent offense and weak division, we have to take them OVER 10.5 wins.
-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 8-8, 9-7
-- Patriots & Jets have gone OVER the total 8 of the last 9 times they've faced each other. The two teams have topped 50 points in 5 of those 9 games and they've averaged 49.5 points during that stretch.
-- The OVER has cashed in at a rate of 33-15-1 the last 49 times the Patriots have been tabbed a home favorite.
-- Not a bad idea to take New England after a SU loss. The Pats are 36-6 SU and 30-12 ATS when coming off a loss.
-- Patriots have mopped up on the AFC East with a 40-27-1 ATS record in division play since 2003. That's the 3rd best ATS division record during that time behind only Pittsburgh & Green Bay.
-- New England has not been a play on team in the playoffs as of late. They are just 9-14 ATS in the NFL post-season since 2003.
Player & Team Notes
-- Since taking over as the starting QB early in the 2001 season, the Patriots are 148-43 in regular season games with Tom Brady under center.
-- Brady was only 16th in the NFL in QB Rating last year behind such names at Sam Bradford, Alex Smith, & Josh McCown.
-- New England is 34-9 SU their last 43 division games (Buffalo, NYJ, and Miami).
-- Pats opened as a 3.5 point favorite @ Miami in Week 1. The Fins (-2.5) beat New England 24-20 at home in last year.
-- The Patriots rush defense (30th in the NFL) gave up 100 or more yards to 13 of their 16 regular season opponents last year topped by Denver's whopping 280 rushing yards on November 24th.
-- New England has put up 20 or more points in 55 of their last 62 games (regular season & post-season included).
-- Patriots have been in the top 4 in the NFL in turnover margin for the last 4 seasons. They have had a + turnover margin for the last 8 years.
2014 Total Win Analysis: LVH Total Win Opening Line - 7
We think the Jets will have a hard time topping 7 wins so we lean UNDER here. Despite finishing with 8 wins last season, we think the flyboys were overrated. They were -97 in point differential and were outgained by 17 YPG. Those aren't the numbers of a team that finished at .500. They are playing into a very tough schedule this season (9th toughest SOS) facing the NFC North & AFC West. They won most of their tight contests a year ago going 5-1 in games decided by a TD or less. On the flip side, when they lost, they lost big most of the time with 7 of their 8 losses coming by at least 10 points. That tells us this team was very close to having 5 or 6 wins rather than 8. QB Geno Smith struggled last year (25 turnovers and only 55% completions) and while we expect him to get better, we peg him as turnover prone again and average at best this year. The defense is decent but the offense is one of the worst in the NFL. We don't see the Jets getting back to 8-8 or better this season.
-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 9-6-1, 9-7
-- Jets & Patriots have gone OVER the total 8 of the last 9 times they've faced each other. The two teams have topped 50 points in 5 of those 9 games and they've averaged 49.5 points during that stretch.
-- Jets have been tabbed an underdog in 24 of their last 25 meetings with New England. Flyboys have won 7 of those games outright as a dog (lost 17 of them outright).
-- Jets are 19-5-2 ATS @ Miami dating back to 1988.
-- Jets are just 17-25-1 ATS the game following a SU loss.
-- NYJ are 13-5 ATS as a double digit dog dating back to 1992 - 4-0 ATS in that role the last 2 seasons.
Player & Team Notes
-- Jets added Michael Vick to the mix at QB in the off-season.
-- NY also added WR Eric Decker from Denver to try and give their QB, whoever it might be, some more weapons on the outside.
-- QB Geno Smith had the worst passer rating last season (66.5) of any eligible QB in the NFL (at least 224 attempts).
-- Smith also ranked 35th in pass completion percentage (55%) ahead of only Case Keenum and Brandon Weeden (at least 224 pass attempts).
-- Jets leading receiver last year, Jeremy Kerley, had just 43 receptions. To put that in perspective, 23 NFL teams had at least THREE players on their team that caught more than 43 passes - including 3 teams that had FIVE players catch more than 43 balls.
-- NYJ finished 6th in the NFL in rushing last year at 135 YPG. They added Titan RB Chris Johnson in the off-season in hopes to put a game breaker in the backfield. Johnson is coming off knee surgery and didn't participate in mini camps but should be full go by fall camp.
2014 Total Win Analysis: LVH Total Win Opening Line - 6.5
We'd have to lean towards the OVER here. Last year the Bills suffered a midseason injury to rookie QB EJ Manuel. Despite playing in his first year, Manuel led Buffalo to a 2-2 record in his first four games with 5 TD and just 3 INT. Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel played in Manuel's place and combined for just 5 TD and 6 INT in seven games (2-5 record). Along with Manuel in his 2nd season, there's a lot to like about Buffalo this year. RB's Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller are both back after leading the way for an offense that averaged 144 rush yards per game, good for 2nd in the league. Defensively the Bills have one of the top defensive lines and pass-defenses. They ranked 2nd in the NFL in sacks and 2nd in interceptions. They drafted arguably the top playmaker in the draft at No. 4 overall in wide receiver Sammy Watkins. They plan on running a more up-tempo offense and with dual threat Manuel under center getting the ball to Watkins & Spiller; they have the right pieces to make it work. Buffalo has the 14th toughest schedule in the NFL for 2014. Most of their non-division road games are manageable as Denver is the only road game against a playoff team from last year. They get Green Bay, Kansas City, and San Diego at home.
-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 8-8, 10-6
-- Ranked dead last in the NFL with a 12-19-1 ATS (38.7%) mark on the road since 2010
-- Just 24-32-2 ATS (42.9%) as an underdog since 2009 - ranked 29th in the NFL over that span
-- Best in the NFL with a 36-25-1 ATS record (59%) as a favorite since 2003
-- Home cooking: 5-1 last year as a home underdog and 6-2 ATS overall at home
-- The Bills are just 7-17-1 ATS vs. New England since 2000; 4-9-1 ATS at home and 3-8 ATS at NE
-- Buffalo is 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS the last nine games against the New York Jets
-- Unlike the poor trends against NY Jets & New England, Buffalo is a solid 13-7 ATS the last 20 games against Miami Dolphins
Player & Team Notes
-- Ranked 2nd in the NFL in sacks last year with three players recording double digit totals (Mario Williams, Jerry Hughes, and Kyle Williams)
-- Only Super Bowl Champion Seattle had more interceptions than Buffalo last year (Seattle had 28 while Buffalo had 23)
-- Expect Buffalo to continue to split carries with Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Neither topped 1,000 yards but Buffalo still had the 2nd best rush offense in the NFL with 144.2 rush yards per game
-- Rookie QB EJ Manuel had at least one touchdown pass in all but one game that he started last year (not counting the Cleveland game that he was injured in) but Buffalo still ranked 30th in touchdown passes
-- Rookie LB Kiko Alonso is the best playmaker on the defensive side of the ball and unfortunately, he's out for the season due to an ACL injury.
-- Hired former Detroit head coach Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator
-- Traded leading receiver Stevie Johnson to the 49ers
2014 Total Win Analysis: LVH Total Win Opening Line - 8
The Dolphins had a season of ups and downs in 2013. They started 3-0 and then lost six of eight. They then won three in a row to get to 8-6 in prime position for a playoff berth before dropping the final two games against Buffalo and N.Y. Jets by a combined score of 7-39, narrowly missing out on a Wild Card spot. They expect to be better on both sides of the ball after finishing just 27th on offense and 26th on defense. Second-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill saw solid growth in his production last year with 3,913 yards (60.4 percent) with 24 TD. He'll have to work on limiting his turnovers as he had 17 INT last year. A good portion of blame can go to his offensive line, a unit that gave him sporadic protection a year ago and allowed him to be sacked an NFL-high 58 times last year. After the Jonathan Martin/Richie Incognito hazing scandal last year, Miami had to let both linemen go. They signed OT Branden Albert from Kansas City and drafted OT Jawuan James and OT Billy Turner to shore up interior offensive line issues. Miami has the 12th hardest strength of schedule rating heading into 2014 and it doesn't shape up well. Divisionally they get New England twice while New York and Buffalo figure to me much improved from last year. They face the NFC North this season and also have tough matchups against Baltimore, San Diego, and Denver. The Dolphins might be better that 2013 on paper, but how much better? Against that schedule it'll be difficult for Miami to exceed eight wins. We're leaning towards the UNDER on this one.
-- 2013 ATS-O/U Record: 9-7, 7-8-1
-- Miami is 13-6-2 ATS the last 21 home games (61.9%)
-- That includes a 5-1-1 ATS mark the last two years as a home 'dog (83.3%)
-- Miami rank 4th best in the NFL since 2010 with a 23-16-1 ATS record in non-division games
-- The Dolphins are 2nd best in the NFL since 2008 as a road underdog with a 24-14-1 ATS mark
-- Despite being generally solid at home, Miami is just 2-12-2 ATS at home vs. division-rival the Jets since 1998
-- They are also a poor 7-13 ATS the last 20 games vs. division-rival Buffalo
Player & Team Notes
-- Ranked 26th in the NFL with just 90 rush yards per game and 27th with just 8 rushing touchdowns.
-- Signed Knowshon Moreno to compete for starting RB job. Moreno, who rushed for 1,038 yards with Denver last year, also caught 60 passes for 548 yards
-- They ranked 20th against the pass last season, but they only allowed 17 passing touchdowns (3rd). They also intercepted 18 passes (10th) and had 42 sacks (11th)
-- Fired General Manager Jeff Ireland and named Dennis Hickey general manager (formerly part of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers front office)
-- Fired offensive coordinator Mike Sherman. Named former Philadelphia QB Coach Bill Lazor as his replacement
-- Signed Cortland Finnegan from St. Louis to compete for the no. 2 cornerback job opposite Brent Grimes
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
Betting 101: Best ways to safely handicap the NFL preseason
So you want to bet NFL preseason football, do you?
Steering bettors away from the NFL’s unpredictable exhibition schedule is like trying to convince high school kids to wait until marriage, if you know what we mean. You aren’t going to convince them otherwise so you might as well preach about safe sex - or in this case safe betting habits.
We break down the best ways to handicap the NFL preseason slate and hope you don’t lose your shirt – and pants – by the time Week 1 rolls around:
The great thing about the NFL preseason is that books and bettors are on the same level. Coaches don’t reveal their plans until usually the day before a game, and by that time odds have been up for a while. If you catch an online presser or read a quote from a coach spilling the beans on his starters’ playing time, you can quickly get down before the lines adjust.
Research is everything for preseason capping. Find out how many snaps the first teamers will get, what the focal point of the offseason is – offense or defense – and wager accordingly. Also, keep an eye on camp injuries or how veteran players are treating the tune-up games. Some star players go through the motions in August and ones limited by injuries won't risk going all out before the real games start.
A team that is trying to establish some momentum on the ground will likely run the ball a lot – therefore keeping the clock ticking and the final score Under the total. If a team is trying to fill roster spots in the secondary and is plugging in rookies and inexperienced player in its pass defense, than perhaps look at the other team to air it out and exploit those weaknesses.
Much the way starting pitchers make up 90 percent of baseball handicapping, quarterbacks hold a similar value when betting on the preseason. It’s the most important position on the field and can single handedly make or break your bets.
Finding a team with depth at quarterback is the key for success during the exhibition schedule. The No. 1 passer will likely only take a handful of snaps in the first two games of the preseason, turning the offense over to the backups.
Look for teams with an experienced backup under center. Many clubs have veterans and former starters on the roster, guys who won’t be freaked out by the NFL’s big stage like rookie QBs and wet-behind-the-ears free agents. These vets can keep the chains moving and often excel against an opponent’s second and third-tier defense.
New coaches and schemes
The preseason is summer school for many NFL teams transitioning their playbook, whether that be with a new head coach, coordinator or just an overall flip in the way they do things.
New head coaches aren’t necessarily a red flag. They can often feel a little pressured to win in the preseason in order to impress the front office and fan base, which can give some teams added betting value. New coordinators, on the other hand, are working in different plays and schemes, which usually come with a learning curve.
Read up on how teams are adjusting to new systems and offenses, especially if there is a dramatic shift in gears, like speeding up with no-huddle attacks or going from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. When these teams take on established coaches, who have implemented their systems for a while, there can be value going against those new faces on the sideline.
Come the regular season, the infamous 3-point spread is everywhere. And while a field-goal line is a key number in football betting, it loses some of its stature in the preseason.
Teams are more likely to go for a two-point conversion or try their luck on fourth-and-short in the preseason than play it safe. Not only do the games not matter, but a fourth down gamble or two-point attempt is an extra set for the offense as it works toward the regular season.
Depending on how those rolls of the dice play out, the final score can either be closer than three points or well over it. It’s rare to see a preseason spread of more than three points with most bouncing between 1-2.5 points.
Week to week
For those looking to bet the closest facsimile of Week 1 action during the preseason, you may want to pass on the first two weeks of exhibitions and save your marbles for Week 3. That’s when starting players tend to log the most time, working the majority of the first half and sometimes into the third quarter.
Week 1 and 2 often has first teams playing limited snaps – depending on the team’s situation – and Week 4 is pretty much a craps shoot. Coaches are making their final cuts, players are fighting to stay on the roster, and the coordinators are tightening the final nuts and bolts of their playbooks.
For those bettors who like a challenge, Week 4 of the preseason could be the trickiest week of the entire NFL schedule – preseason, regular season and playoffs – to wager on.
Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: