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I do as well but keep it limited. One never knows what type of team the coach will have out there and how many quarters he will keep his starters playing if at all. There have been some incredible swings of the final outcome that have taken place in the final few minutes due to motivation factors and even experience just to test the waters to better prepare for regular season situations.
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I really have to watch my money for a while, but I will play some small bets. I usually do play every week, but money is right right now and I would rather save some for the regular season. Always looking forward to some help, so I will be looking forward to your posts.
This is exactly the kind of stuff I am talking about...
this is a good read..
A couple of years ago, Sean Payton and Jim Harbaugh had a war of words after Payton became upset when Harbaugh did not call him before a preseason matchup to discuss the parameters of their non-blitz agreement. Feeling spurned, Payton told then-defensive coordinator and Bountygate czar Gregg Williams to “let the dogs out”, according to Saints radio announcer Jim Henderson.
The point of referencing this incident isn’t to highlight old NFL news or find a reason to mention the Baja Men, but instead to document that agreements to tone down blitzing during the preseason do exist. From a sports betting standpoint, this was arguably the most important factor that influenced me to sell my soul to preseason betting because I had a real-world theory backing my analysis.
Applying this concept to sports betting, I started with a theory that a gentlemen’s agreement to not blitz, or not run complex blitz packages at the very least, leads to more than expected scoring and more preseason games going ‘over’ the total. It’s reasonable to assume that allowing professional quarterbacks, even those viewed as less-skilled, like rookies, third-stringers and Jay Cutler (sorry Bears fans, couldn’t help myself), to stand in the pocket with little or no pressure gives offenses an advantage they’re not afforded in the regular season.
Since 2008, 51.2% of NFL regular season games have gone ‘over’ the total, indicating there is a slight trend towards ‘overs’, yet not enough to cover the juice if assuming a normal -110 vig. However, when analyzing preseason totals over the same span, we found that 55% of games have gone ‘over’ the total.