dietz Posts:238 Followers:1
On 05/15/2014 10:56 AM in General

PREAKNESS STAKES 2014

Second stage of the Triple Crown which happens to be the least attractive race of the 3. Yes, it sets up the grand stage for a triple crown winner and really gets the buzz going if the winner of the Kentucky Derby can get this race under his belt, but from a gamblers perspective this race is the worst of all 3 races..

over the past 10 years here are the AVG. $2 wager pay outs-------
WIN - $7.20
EXACTA- 98.10
TRIPLE _$510.50
SUPER -$5,139.30
PICK 3 - $142.90

Cash is cash, but nothing compared to Derby pay outs and with this race having a 3/5 morning line favorite I do not see the pay outs being drastically off the mark, especially not higher.

RAIN IS FORCASTED FOR ALL DAY FRIDAY. I WILL NOT HAVE ANY WAGERS FOR FRIDAY, BUT THIS COULD AFFECT THE BIG DAY ON SATURDAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE DAY PANS OUT. PAY ATTENTION TO CLOSING HORSES AND SPEED HORSES ESPECIALLY IN LATER RACES AS THE TRACK DRIES OUT. ALSO, LOOK FOR HORSES THAT MTO (MAIN TRACK ONLY) IF THEY GET IN AND TRACK GETS DRIER THE LESS THE CHANCE FOR THEM TO WIN. I LIKE TURF TO DIRT HORSES ESPECIALLY IF THE TRACK DRIES OUT


HORSES - in post position order..

I am not going to do a huge write up like the derby for each horse, but will shed my opinion on each one.

DYNAMIC IMPACT - Speed horse who gets the 1 st post position. Not a death threat like the Derby, but I don't see this horse having an impact in the end. If he breaks clean could set the pace for the race. To me, not a factor in the end.

GENERAL A-ROD - jockey change to Javier Costellano makes this horse a player. Javier has ridden this horse in Gulfstream and gets the call to come back. I think Javier wanted this mount in Derby, but got stuck on another mount who should have been scratched. This horse has a bad trip in the Derby and had ability to rate and hang. Good chance to be in the money.

CALIFORNIA CHROME - Odds on favorite at 3/5 and should be. You will here people say it was slowest Derby in years and is beatable. Not in this race. The stewards had a meeting with jockeys before the Derby race, said to take it easy out there. The track is in fast form and 20 horses all going at once is very dangerous (some horses cost over half million). There were races with less horses prior to the derby that went in 22.4 and 23.6. CALIFORNIA CHROME runs 22.4 in Santa Anita in his sleep and still pulls away with ease. He could have done the same in the Derby. Espinoza stood up on this horse before he even crossed the finish line, horse was not taxed at all. MONSTER.

RING WEEKEND - Cant get a feel for this horse, just cant. Has speed, but can he hold the speed compared to others or fend off closers in the end. I like other horses in hear.

BAYERN
- Could be setting the pace with DYNAMIC IMPACT. Interesting to see how the track is running as the day goes on. I expect it to be fast, but it could be a soft/face which means the track will be posted as fast cause it is dry, but it still has moisture deep in it. Very fast horse who came in second to C. CHROME before, but was way back.

RIA ANTONIA - Filly going up against the boys. I do not think this horse has a chance. Figures do not add up compared to the top 4 in here. Would be surprised to see it 6th or higher in the end.

KID CRUZ - stepping up to the big boys here, but this horse has some closing kick big time. Has closed in races where 1/2 mile was in 46.2 and 50.6 - no matter what the pace, he can close. Ran on this track in a minor stakes race and won. My feeling is this is an exotic wager horse who likes this surface, best race ever came on this very track. Could get 40-1 on him. Rider is track local and best.

SOCIAL INCLUSION- out of the Derby but in for this..and he will be bet. This is a very young horse going up against some mature 3 year olds. He hung in there with SAMRAAT and UNCLE SIGH and ended up 3rd, but what did either of those horses do in the Derby. I can see this horse hanging around, but not winning.

PABLO DEL MONTE- was in the Derby if he wanted, but owner and trainer said no. Decided to save him for the Preakness. He is a pace setter with lightning speed up front, but when was the last time you saw a lightening bolt last 2 minutes.

RIDE ON CURLIN - This horse could have had the worst trip in the derby. Just constantly behind horses and checked 3 x. Once open he was running. Trainer drops Calvin Borel and picks up Rosario. Could be a wise wise move. He will have his choice of how to run the race with nobody out side of him. Could have been in top 3 in derby and I think he will be over looked in this.


WAGER

There will not be much money to be made here unless you hit exotics hard. I think CALIFORNIA CHROME wins and wins for fun.
This horse has not been fully ridden in a race yet. I mentioned earlier that Victor Espinoza stood up on him before he even finished the race. He was barely touched to move forward. If he wants he can run out in 22.5 and put all others to bed. I do not see anyone catching him...............until BELMONT. hint

$10 Triple - CALIFORNIA CHROME - RIDE ON CURLIN - ALL ($80 wager)
$10 exacts BOX CALIFORNIA CHROME- RIDE ON CURLIN


I like RIDE ON CURLIN in exotics. This horse had a terrible Derby trip, but with only 9 other horses he will get a nice trip to rate and close. He will have work cut out for him with Social Inclusion and some front runners, but this horse is a good steady horse who will be over looked.

I do like KID CRUZ for triple and Super. This horse can close and close fast. The pace will have to set up for him, but I see it happening with DYNAMIC IMPACT-SOCIAL INCLUSION-BAYERN-PABLO DEL MONTE. One of these 2 will end up in a speed duel and force others to run which could set up for late running KID CRUZ and RIDE ON CURLIN.

The two most mature horses in the field are CALIFORNIA CHROME and RIDE ON CURLIN.......they have 10 or more races under their belts, some horses in here only have 4. Horses change after every race, especially baby 3 year olds.

Maybe we can hit this race again. This is my outlook and good luck if you choose to follow.

PS. Pay attention to the track....pouring rain on Friday. See how the mid races on Saturday play out....do horses close or do front runners win. this will be key going into the Preakness Stakes, but CHROME still wins.

sharpsquare Posts:2137 Followers:5
05/15/2014 06:24 PM



Always appreciate your input and info on the races , thanks for posting !

dietz Posts:238 Followers:1
05/15/2014 09:45 PM

Thanks Sharpsquare..... I heard a story that Cal. Chrome had a cough after morning jog.... Not sure what to think. Wet
Weather, dampness... Does horse get asthma.? Have to wait n see. Came from CA with perfect weather never damp.
Watch n listen as to how he is doing.

bamajohn Posts:621 Followers:17
05/17/2014 12:09 PM

Great write up Dietz. Placing wagers in am and gonna watch at the house today. Playing some exotics but gotta throw Cali chrome in there. Good luck pal

ROLL TIDE
dietz Posts:238 Followers:1
05/17/2014 10:06 PM

Not a bad day!