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Philadelphia vs. Arizona, 04/25/2014 21:40
Total: -106/+9½ Over
Roberto Hernandez can change his name from Fausto Carmona, but he can't change his pitching fortunes. He's one of the worst starters in the major leagues as is Josh Collmenter, a converted reliever.
These two No. 5 type starters tangle today at hitter-friendly Chase Field where Arizona has a 5.38 home ERA.
Hernandez's ERA this season is a fat 5.75. He has gone from Cleveland to Tampa Bay to Philadelphia during the last three seasons. Only once during the last seven years has he posted an ERA under 4.89.
Collmenter is brutal, too, with a 4.50 ERA. He's best suited for long relief. This will be his third start of the year. Collmenter's first two starts were against the Mets and Dodgers where he gave up a combined seven runs in 10 innings for a 6.30 ERA.
The right-hander is 0-1 with a 5.68 ERA in two lifetime starts against the Phillies. Philadelphia's current roster bats a collective .355 against Collmenter. The over has cashed five of the last six times the Phillies have faced a righty on the road.
The Diamondbacks have surrendered the most runs in baseball by a wide margin. The Phillies give up the third-most runs in the National League. Both bullpens are atrocious. The Phillies entered yesterday's action with the highest bullpen ERA in the majors.
Add it together and you have two crappy starters backed by two horrendous bullpens in a hitter's park. The offenses are much stronger than the pitching. So there's no reason why double-digits can't be reached.
Fresh off cashing his MLB Total of the Month on Thursday with the over in the Phillies-Dodgers game, long-time sharp Stephen Nover is happy to offer this free selection. Stephen also has his NBA Game of the Week going today. Stephen is 24-14-1 on his last 39 paid/free NBA plays for 63 percent. Put Stephen's expertise, hot hand and high winning percentages to work for you.