cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
On 11/08/2011 08:12 PM in NFL

Cnotes NFL Week # 10 Best Bets 11/10-11/14 !

Trending: NFL Power of the Bye (Nov. 7)

We conclude our series of studying teams’ performances in and out of the bye week. What you’ll see here should open your eyes. Hopefully it will expand your bankroll as well, as all of these powerful ATS or Over-Under trends boast winning percentages of at least 65 percent or at most 35 percent.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-3)

at CINCINNATI BENGALS (6-2)




ROAD TEAMS are 7-2 ATS in the last nine Pittsburgh pre-bye week games. The trend continued last year in Baltimore’s 17-14 win in Pittsburgh with the then-undefeated Steelers having entered the game as a slight favorite. The Steelers defense stopped the Ravens on the ground, limiting them to a total of 70 yards, but Joe Flacco completed 24-of-37 passes for 256 yards and a touchdown. Pittsburgh also came up with two big turnovers, but wasn’t able to turn them into points as kicker Jeff Reed missed two field goals.
Play On: PITTSBURGH ATS

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-6)

at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (0-9)



INDIANAPOLIS is 10-1-1 in its last 12 pre-bye week games, with the lone push among those coming in the Colts’ 27-24 win at Washington as a three-point favorite last season. Indianapolis had looked as if it may run away in the Sunday night game, racking up 294 yards by halftime. The Colts led only 17-7, however, in part because the usually reliable Adam Vinatieri missed two field goal attempts after an 8-for-8 start to the season. Washington never led and ultimately forced the back-door push with a touchdown with less than three minutes remaining.
Play On: INDIANAPOLIS ATS

HOUSTON TEXANS (6-3)

at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-4)



HOUSTON is 6-3 ATS in its last nine pre-bye week games. The Texans failed to cover by the slimmest of margins going into their bye last season, beating the Chiefs, 35-31, in a game in which they were favored by 4½ points.
Play On: HOUSTON ATS

TENNESSEE TITANS (4-4)

at CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-6)



FAVORITES are 7-2 straight up and 6-3 against the spread in Carolina’s last nine post-bye week games, and UNDER the total is 6-2 in the Panthers’ last eight games after their bye. Those trends failed to hold up last season when the 49ers, as a 1½-point favorite, blew a 20-13 lead they held inside of two minutes left in the game, and ended up losing to then-winless Carolina, 23-20. The game’s over/under was 35½.
Play On: CAROLINA ATS & UNDER THE TOTAL

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (2-6)

at GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-0)



MINNESOTA is on a 6-2-1 ATS run over its last nine post-bye week games, and OVER the total is 11-2 in the Vikings’ last 13 games coming off a bye.
Play On: MINNESOTA ATS & OVER THE TOTAL

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
11/08/2011 08:14 PM

Dolphins Home Favorites Over Washington Redskins

Miami is a 3½-point favorite at home this Sunday against the Redskins.
There was a time when a Redskins-Dolphins matchup stopped the American sports public in its tracks.

By comparison, this weekend’s renewal in Sun Life Stadium might not even slow traffic on the nearby Florida’s Turnpike.

Washington (3-5 straight up and against the spread) and Miami (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS) recall some long-ago hostilities on Sunday when clashing on the Dade and Broward County lines. The Don Best odds screen notes that the Dolphins have been posted as early 3½-point favorites at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the total solidly on 37½. Kickoff will be at 1:00 p.m. (ET), with FOX TV providing the coverage.

Mention of the Redskins and Dolphins, however, will always recall their memorable confrontation on January 14, 1973, in Super Bowl VII at the Los Angeles Coliseum. It was the final installment of the Dolphins’ perfect 17-0 season, yet they were surprisingly listed a 2-point underdogs for the contest.

Super Bowl VII was noteworthy in another aspect in that the NFL decided to lift the local TV blackout for the game less than a week before the contest was to kick off. Remember, games were blacked out in those days within a 75-mile radius of the host city. Major market Los Angeles, which was blacked out of the first Super Bowl six years earlier (as had Miami and New Orleans in subsequent title games), was expected to follow suit for Super Bowl VII until the league and NBC decided to lift the blackout.

It’s hard for modern-day fans to believe how much of a hot potato the TV blackout rule was. Even the U.S. Congress, citing no decrease in the live gate for Super Bowl VII, would eventually get involved in the debate, helping to force the NFL to relax its home-city blackout rule. Subsequent to Redskins-Dolphins, the NFL modified its stance on home-city TV blackout rules, imposing a 72-hour cutoff; if a game had been sold out by that point, it could be televised locally.

Thus, the seeds for that TV policy, still in place today, were planted at the Washington-Miami Super Bowl VII. A little-known extra info nugget about the history of matshups between the 'Skins and Fins.

We have always believed that the actual Super Bowl VII contest has been overrated by gridiron historians, however. The fact it was the final installment of the "perfect" season for Don Shula’s Dolphins probably has something to do with the contest rating more highly in all-time SB rankings than it probably deserves.

In truth, Super Bowl VII was mostly a bore, with Miami taking charge in the first half as it moved easily to a 14-0 lead. The only bit of drama came deep in the fourth quarter, when the Dolphins’ Garo Yepremian was attempting a 42-yard field goal with just over two minutes to play that would have given Miami an insurmountable 17-0 lead.

But in one of the more-famous clips from future NFL Football Follies, the kick was blocked and bounced to Yepremian, who first tried unsuccessfully to pass the ball, then instead knocked the ball into the air, from where Washington DB Mike Bass plucked it and ran 49 yards for Redskins’ only score of the day.

George Allen’s Washington, now down only 14-7, got the ball back in the last minute, but like most of the afternoon, could do nothing against Shula’s "No-Name" defense. In the end, the 14-7 scoreline could have flattered the 'Skins. For the day, both teams combined to gain fewer than 500 yards of offense, and Washington never came close to scoring until Bass’ late capitalization on the Yepremian flub-up.

We doubt anyone is going to recall this week’s Redskins-Dolphins renewal 39 hours, much less 39 years, after its conclusion. Although Washington enters the game with three wins compared to Miami’s one, an argument can be made that the 'Skins might be playing worse at the moment than any team in the NFL.

Blame injuries partly for the current malaise in D.C. that has seen Mike Shanahan’s team lose and fail to cover its last four games. Moreover, the 'Skins are not coming close lately, losing by 13 ppg in the slump and scoring only 11 ppg that span. Two of the four TDs scored in the skid have also come in the very late stages of the games against the Eagles and 49ers.

The slump has coincided with a succession of key injuries, in particular to top rusher Tim Hightower and top receiver Santana Moss, who remain sidelined. Not to mention ongoing struggles at QB, which the D.C. press corps had predicted from the summer, when Shanahan opted to let Donovan McNabb walk and instead entrust the unconvincing Rex Grossman and John Beck with those duties.

NFC East insiders suggested a gross miscalculation was committed by Shanahan, who is now paying for a gamble gone bad. Grossman eventually imploded in the October 16 loss to the Eagles, tossing four picks. Beck has not been much better since assuming the starting role the following week against the Panthers, an eventual 33-20 Washington loss.

Indeed, Beck, who began his NFL career with the Dolphins, has not started for a winning team since his college days at BYU.

Fortunately for the Redskins, they are facing what appears to be a beatable foe in the host Dolphins, who scored their first win of the season last week at Kansas City. Although Miami had been coming close to success in preceding weeks, losing in overtime vs. Denver and in the last minutes against the Giants.

Keying the mild uptick has been improvement in the offense, in particular RB Reggie Bush. Perhaps motivated by the knowledge that former flame Kim Kardashian is back on the singles market, Bush has produced his best games in a Miami uniform the past two weeks, rushing for a combined 195 yards vs. Denver and the Giants. Dolphins QB Matt Moore, who replaced injured Chad Henne last month, is also off of his best game, passing for 244 yards and three TDs at Arrowhead.

Before getting carried away, however, Dolphins backers must acknowledge recent underachievement by their favorite team at Sun Life Stadium, where the frontrunning South Florida fans offer only lukewarm support in the best of times, and various transplants always provide more throaty support for the visitors than is heard at other NFL stadiums. Miami has dropped its last seven spread decisions at home and 19 of 24 as host since early in the 2008 season, part of a curious trend under HC Tony Sparano in which the Dolphins have provided mostly-good spread value on the road, and poor value at home.

As for Sparano, his long-term job prospects hardly improved with the win at Kansas City. Indeed, even in success he seems to have angered Dolphins fans who are hoping their team finishes poorly enough to have a chance at the top pick in next April’s NFL Draft, almost assuredly to be Stanford QB Andrew Luck.

Poor Sparano can’t even win for winning these days.


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Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
11/08/2011 08:16 PM

Dolphins Home Favorites Over Washington Redskins

Miami is a 3½-point favorite at home this Sunday against the Redskins.
There was a time when a Redskins-Dolphins matchup stopped the American sports public in its tracks.

By comparison, this weekend’s renewal in Sun Life Stadium might not even slow traffic on the nearby Florida’s Turnpike.

Washington (3-5 straight up and against the spread) and Miami (1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS) recall some long-ago hostilities on Sunday when clashing on the Dade and Broward County lines. The Don Best odds screen notes that the Dolphins have been posted as early 3½-point favorites at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the total solidly on 37½. Kickoff will be at 1:00 p.m. (ET), with FOX TV providing the coverage.

Mention of the Redskins and Dolphins, however, will always recall their memorable confrontation on January 14, 1973, in Super Bowl VII at the Los Angeles Coliseum. It was the final installment of the Dolphins’ perfect 17-0 season, yet they were surprisingly listed a 2-point underdogs for the contest.

Super Bowl VII was noteworthy in another aspect in that the NFL decided to lift the local TV blackout for the game less than a week before the contest was to kick off. Remember, games were blacked out in those days within a 75-mile radius of the host city. Major market Los Angeles, which was blacked out of the first Super Bowl six years earlier (as had Miami and New Orleans in subsequent title games), was expected to follow suit for Super Bowl VII until the league and NBC decided to lift the blackout.

It’s hard for modern-day fans to believe how much of a hot potato the TV blackout rule was. Even the U.S. Congress, citing no decrease in the live gate for Super Bowl VII, would eventually get involved in the debate, helping to force the NFL to relax its home-city blackout rule. Subsequent to Redskins-Dolphins, the NFL modified its stance on home-city TV blackout rules, imposing a 72-hour cutoff; if a game had been sold out by that point, it could be televised locally.

Thus, the seeds for that TV policy, still in place today, were planted at the Washington-Miami Super Bowl VII. A little-known extra info nugget about the history of matshups between the 'Skins and Fins.

We have always believed that the actual Super Bowl VII contest has been overrated by gridiron historians, however. The fact it was the final installment of the "perfect" season for Don Shula’s Dolphins probably has something to do with the contest rating more highly in all-time SB rankings than it probably deserves.

In truth, Super Bowl VII was mostly a bore, with Miami taking charge in the first half as it moved easily to a 14-0 lead. The only bit of drama came deep in the fourth quarter, when the Dolphins’ Garo Yepremian was attempting a 42-yard field goal with just over two minutes to play that would have given Miami an insurmountable 17-0 lead.

But in one of the more-famous clips from future NFL Football Follies, the kick was blocked and bounced to Yepremian, who first tried unsuccessfully to pass the ball, then instead knocked the ball into the air, from where Washington DB Mike Bass plucked it and ran 49 yards for Redskins’ only score of the day.

George Allen’s Washington, now down only 14-7, got the ball back in the last minute, but like most of the afternoon, could do nothing against Shula’s "No-Name" defense. In the end, the 14-7 scoreline could have flattered the 'Skins. For the day, both teams combined to gain fewer than 500 yards of offense, and Washington never came close to scoring until Bass’ late capitalization on the Yepremian flub-up.

We doubt anyone is going to recall this week’s Redskins-Dolphins renewal 39 hours, much less 39 years, after its conclusion. Although Washington enters the game with three wins compared to Miami’s one, an argument can be made that the 'Skins might be playing worse at the moment than any team in the NFL.

Blame injuries partly for the current malaise in D.C. that has seen Mike Shanahan’s team lose and fail to cover its last four games. Moreover, the 'Skins are not coming close lately, losing by 13 ppg in the slump and scoring only 11 ppg that span. Two of the four TDs scored in the skid have also come in the very late stages of the games against the Eagles and 49ers.

The slump has coincided with a succession of key injuries, in particular to top rusher Tim Hightower and top receiver Santana Moss, who remain sidelined. Not to mention ongoing struggles at QB, which the D.C. press corps had predicted from the summer, when Shanahan opted to let Donovan McNabb walk and instead entrust the unconvincing Rex Grossman and John Beck with those duties.

NFC East insiders suggested a gross miscalculation was committed by Shanahan, who is now paying for a gamble gone bad. Grossman eventually imploded in the October 16 loss to the Eagles, tossing four picks. Beck has not been much better since assuming the starting role the following week against the Panthers, an eventual 33-20 Washington loss.

Indeed, Beck, who began his NFL career with the Dolphins, has not started for a winning team since his college days at BYU.

Fortunately for the Redskins, they are facing what appears to be a beatable foe in the host Dolphins, who scored their first win of the season last week at Kansas City. Although Miami had been coming close to success in preceding weeks, losing in overtime vs. Denver and in the last minutes against the Giants.

Keying the mild uptick has been improvement in the offense, in particular RB Reggie Bush. Perhaps motivated by the knowledge that former flame Kim Kardashian is back on the singles market, Bush has produced his best games in a Miami uniform the past two weeks, rushing for a combined 195 yards vs. Denver and the Giants. Dolphins QB Matt Moore, who replaced injured Chad Henne last month, is also off of his best game, passing for 244 yards and three TDs at Arrowhead.

Before getting carried away, however, Dolphins backers must acknowledge recent underachievement by their favorite team at Sun Life Stadium, where the frontrunning South Florida fans offer only lukewarm support in the best of times, and various transplants always provide more throaty support for the visitors than is heard at other NFL stadiums. Miami has dropped its last seven spread decisions at home and 19 of 24 as host since early in the 2008 season, part of a curious trend under HC Tony Sparano in which the Dolphins have provided mostly-good spread value on the road, and poor value at home.

As for Sparano, his long-term job prospects hardly improved with the win at Kansas City. Indeed, even in success he seems to have angered Dolphins fans who are hoping their team finishes poorly enough to have a chance at the top pick in next April’s NFL Draft, almost assuredly to be Stanford QB Andrew Luck.

Poor Sparano can’t even win for winning these days.


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Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
11/08/2011 08:16 PM

AFC West Race Wide Open At Halfway Mark

One team got off the schneid with its first win of the season, another squad remained undefeated and one of the eight divisions ended the first half of the season jammed tight with just a game separating all four squads. When the dust settled at NFL betting windows, road underdogs had won seven of 11 games outright and the 'under' prevailed by an 8-5-1 margin.

Yeah, it's safe to say Week 9 had a little bit of everything for both the fan and the bettor, and it set the standings up for a big second half to the campaign.

The wild, wild west divisions

No doubt one of the biggest stories to come out of the week was turned in by the Miami Dolphins who picked up their first win after seven losses to begin the season. The Dolphins had been close on several other occasions, so seeing them win wasn't exactly a shock. But the manner in which Miami got dubya No. 1 was surprising, 31-3 on the road over the Kansas City Chiefs (-5).

Kansas City's defeat started an 0-3 run for the teams that went into Week 9 tied for the AFC West lead. San Diego dropped its third straight, just falling short of the Green Bay Packers (-5½) in a 45-38 thriller at Qualcomm Stadium. Green Bay's defense returned two early interceptions for touchdowns and Aaron Rodgers had another fine day to help the Packers to an 8-0 mark.

At just about the same time, the Denver Broncos were gashing their way through the Raiders for a 38-24 victory in Oakland. Denver ran for just shy of 300 yards, Willis McGahee accounting for 163 with Tim Tebow adding 118 on 12 totes.

It segues into a huge divisional week for the AFC West where the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers are all 4-4 and Denver is running 3-5. The Raiders and Chargers square off in Thursday's prime-time broadcast, with San Diego listed at -6½ at home. The Broncos will visit the Chiefs on Sunday, Kansas City laying three points after opening -4.

There's not even a hint of a race going on in the NFC West where the San Francisco 49ers are 7-1 and rule the roost with a five-game lead. The Niners (-4) won their sixth straight with a 19-11 decision at the Washington Redskins that left Frisco a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS on the road. Jim Harbaugh's crew will now host what could be a playoff preview against the New York Giants. San Fran is a 3½-point favorite to extend the streak to seven straight wins.

Meanwhile back east...

Speaking of the Giants, Eli Manning directed New York to Week 9's biggest upset in a 24-20 victory at the New England Patriots (-9). A scoreless first half turned into a back-&-forth affair during the final 30 minutes, and the triumph helped the G-Men (6-2) maintain a two-game cushion over the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East.

New England's defeat threw the AFC East into a three-way tie when coupled with the New York Jets (+3) taking care of business at the Buffalo Bills, 27-11. All three are 5-3 on the season and the deadlock will be at least partially broken this Sunday night at MetLife Stadium when Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan pit their teams against one another. The game opened as a pick before New York moved to 1-1½ point chalk. The matchup offers the Jets a shot at some revenge after losing 30-21 at Foxboro in Week 5.

Buffalo will travel to Dallas where the Cowboys are 5½-point favorites in yet another key game on the Week 10 board. Obviously crucial to both clubs' playoff hopes, the matchup begins a tough three-game road trip for the Bills who follow this up with visits to the Dolphins and Jets.

Northern Lights shine bright on Green Bay

Halfway through a perfect season, there's a buzz around the league about the Packers' chances to go through the schedule unscathed. One thing in Green Bay's favor is that schedule which includes just three more road dates (at Lions, Giants and Chiefs) over the final eight games.

There's also a home date with the Lions on the final Sunday of the slate, and the two games with Detroit will go a long way to determining the NFC North standings. The Lions are presently two games behind the Pack with Chicago three back following Monday night's 30-24 upset at Philadelphia (-8).

Detroit will be out to sweep the Bears this week when the Lions make a trek to the Windy City as 1-point 'dogs. Green Bay will host the Minnesota Vikings in the next edition of Monday Night Football with the Packers 13½-point favorites, Week 10's largest spread.

The AFC North is a three-team quagmire with Cincinnati and Baltimore both 6-2 and Pittsburgh a half-game back at 6-3. One of the top surprises this season, the Bengals have yet to face either the Ravens or Steelers, something that will change Sunday when they host Pittsburgh who is favored by a field goal. Cincinnati will then travel to Baltimore in Week 11 before visiting the Steel City in Week 13.

Houston, New Orleans sittin' pretty down south

All three of the New Orleans Saints' defeats have come on the road, making this Sunday's battle in Atlanta crucial to the NFC South race. New Orleans (6-3) holds a slim half-game lead over the Falcons (5-3) who have turned their rough start around with three straight wins and covers.

The clubs took turns beating each other as road underdogs last season, and New Orleans is a slight 1-point favorite at the Georgia Dome for this one.

Houston (6-3) has a 1.5-game lead in the AFC South over Tennessee, and the Texans will begin a two-game stretch in Florida that is interrupted by their bye in Week 11. First up is a trek as 3-point chalk to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It's just the third meeting between the two clubs, and first since 2007.


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Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
11/08/2011 08:18 PM

Tennessee Titans Take On Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers

The Titans have won just one of their last eight contests on the road.
The Tennessee Titans will try to keep their dwindling playoff hopes alive this Sunday with a win on the road against Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers.

Coming off of their bye week, the Panthers are currently favored by 3 ½ over the Titans on the Don Best odds screen. Sunday’s matchup is set to start at 1:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on CBS.

Tennessee (4-4) seemed to be on the way to a 5-3 straight up record up, leading the Bengals 17-7 at the half last Sunday. But the Titans were outscored 17-0 in the second half to give Cincinnati the 24-17 victory.

The loss was Tennessee’s third in their last four games both SU and ATS, and put the Titans two wins behind the Houston Texans (6-3) for first place in the AFC South.

Chris Johnson’s nightmare season continued Sunday as the struggling tailback managed only 64 yards without a touchdown. With Matt Hasselbeck enjoying a career resurgence with the Titans, this team would likely be a legitimate playoff contender if Johnson were playing to his potential; but he hasn’t even come close.

Tennessee currently ranks dead last in the league in rushing with just 70 rushing yards per game.

Carolina (2-6) has played better than its record would indicate with five of the six losses coming by a touchdown or less. The Panthers are 4-1 ATS at home this season, including a 2-1 record both SU and ATS as a home favorite.

Newton has taken no time at all blossoming into a star at the quarterback position, leading the Panthers to the league’s 5th-best passing attack (285.5 yards per game) and 8th-best rushing attack (129.6 yards per game). Carolina’s biggest weakness this season has been the run defense, which ranks 27th in the league surrendering 133.3 yards per game.

Tennessee’s league-worst rushing attack against Carolina’s weak rushing defense is one of the biggest keys to Sunday’s game. If Johnson or backup Javon Ringer can get something going on the ground for the Titans to keep Newton off the field, Tennessee will have a great shot at winning. If Carolina is able to control the tempo, the Panthers should be able to take care of business. Tennessee is 2-0 SU and ATS in games that they have rushed for 90 or more yards.

Dating back to last year, Tennessee is just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road. Carolina is just 4-9 SU in the last 13 games at home, though the Panthers have fared better under Newton at 2-3 SU this season.

The total for Sunday’s game is currently set at 46. Tennessee has leaned slightly towards the ‘over’ on the road this season at 2-1 while Carolina has leaned slightly towards the ‘over’ at home at 3-2.

Current weather forecasts for Charlotte this Sunday include a very slight chance of rain under partly cloudy skies with the thermometer climbing into the mid-60s.


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Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
11/08/2011 08:20 PM

St. Louis Rams Underdogs At Cleveland Browns

The Browns and Rams have each covered the spread just one time in 2011.
The NFL’s two worst teams against the spread, the Cleveland Browns and St. Louis Rams, meet Sunday afternoon in Ohio with both trying to salvage their seasons.

Cleveland is a 1-3 point favorite in the Week 10 NFL odds at Don Best. The total is one of the lowest on the board at 37 ½-points and FOX will have the intra-conference battle at 1:00 p.m. (ET) from Cleveland Browns Stadium.

The Rams are 1-7 straight up and ATS. The former is the poorest mark in the NFC and the latter the worst in the entire NFL. It’s a major step back for coach Steve Spagnuolo, who was thought to have an up-and-coming team after going 7-9 SU last year and almost winning the NFC West.

Spagnuolo is reportedly on the hot seat after St. Louis found a new way to lose yesterday, 19-13 at Arizona as 2 ½-point ‘dogs. Patrick Peterson ran back a punt for 99 yards in overtime and the Cardinals won despite starting John Skelton at quarterback and losing the total yardage battle (383-262). They also blocked a 42-yard field goal at the end of regulation to force OT.

St. Louis quarterback Sam Bradford (ankle injury) returned after missing two games, one of them the only win of the season (31-21 home upset of New Orleans). Bradford looked decent against Arizona (23-of-36, 255 yards), but the team couldn’t get into the end zone, getting three field goals and two safeties.

The 32 combined points scored last game didn’t come close to the 41-point total even with the extra session. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the Rams’ last five games and they’re 31st in the league in scoring (12.5 PPG).

The Rams now have another road game where they’re 0-4 SU and ATS this season. The other three road tilts have been tough foes in Dallas, Green Bay and the NY Giants, with the average score 29-9.

St. Louis’ offense can score on Cleveland. Running back Steven Jackson has averaged 144.5 YPG the last two weeks and the Cleveland run ‘D’ ranks 30th (144 YPG). Bradford should be healthier in his second game back and continue to build chemistry with new receiver Brandon Lloyd (80 yards last week).

The development of Lloyd is even more important with Greg Salas (fibula) out for the year. Receiver Danario Alexander (hamstring) and tight end Lance Kendricks (foot) are questionable.

The Browns (3-5 SU, 1-5-2 ATS) have just one outright cover this year as the three wins have come against bottom dwellers Miami, Indianapolis and Seattle (a combined 3-22 SU).

Cleveland’s last two games have been tough road losses, 20-10 at San Francisco as 9-point underdogs and 30-12 at Houston as 10 ½-point ‘dogs. The Texans game yesterday was a laugher by halftime (24-3) and Cleveland was run roughshod over with 261 rushing yards allowed.

First-year coach Pat Shurmur has an offensive background, so it had to make him sick to see his guys generate just 172 total yards. The team was missing running backs Peyton Hillis (hamstring) and Montario Hardesty (calf), leaving the main duties to Chris Ogbonnaya. He will likely be the featured back again this week.

Look for St. Louis to blitz often on Sunday with little respect for the run game.

Cleveland’s scoring offense (14.9 PPG) is just slightly above St. Louis. Quarterback Colt McCoy isn’t looking look like the long term solution, but the running game isn’t helping (82.1 YPG, ranked 31st) and there aren’t exactly a lot of receiving weapons with tight end Ben Watson the leader (303 yards).

Defensively, the Browns have the top-ranked pass defense in the league (165.3 YPG). However, part of the reason is poor competition and teams also aren’t forced to pass due to the running success.

Cleveland is 2-2 SU and 0-2-2 ATS at home. The Browns' only win the last five games came there on October 23, 6-3 over Seattle as 3-point favorites. The Seahawks offense was completely inept that day (137 total yards) behind backup quarterback Charlie Whitehurst.

These teams last met in 2007 with Cleveland winning 27-20 as 3-point road favorites. St. Louis last played in Cleveland in 2003, winning 26-20 as 5 ½-point favorites. Tim Couch and Kelly Holcomb were the Browns quarterbacks, a duo not much worse than the current situation.

Early weather projections in the ‘Dawg Pound’ are cloudy but reaching the mid 50s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
11/08/2011 08:24 PM

Inside the Numbers - Week 10

November 8, 2011


Thursday, Nov. 10 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

OAK: 14-3 ATS L17 as underdog off loss
OAK: 4-1 'under' L5 overall
SDG: 7-2 ATS L9 November games
SDG: 7-1 'under' L8 home




Sunday, Nov. 13 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

PIT: 5-3 ATS L8 away favorites
PIT: 7-2 ATS L9 vs CIN
CIN: 10-3 ATS L13 home underdogs
CIN: 9-5 ATS L14 vs division

DEN: 4-6 ATS L10 away underdogs
DEN: 5-3 ATS L8 vs KC
KC: 2-5 ATS L7 home favorites
KC: 6-0 'under' L6 vs division

JAX: 1-5 ATS L6 away
JAX: 2-4 ATS L6 off bye
IND: 0-5 ATS L5 overall
IND: 2-7 ATS L9 home

BUF: 1-4-1 ATS L6 away vs NFC
BUF: 8-2 'over' L10 away
DAL: 2-8 ATS L10 home favorite
DAL: 2-6 ATS L8 home vs AFC

HOU: 0-5-1 ATS L6 vs NFC
HOU: 3-6-1 ATS L10 off home win
TAM: 2-9 ATS L11 home underdog
TAM: 2-7 ATS L9 off division game

TEN: 7-2-1 ATS L10 vs NFC
TEN: 5-1 ATS L6 off home loss
CAR: 5-1 ATS L6 home
CAR: 3-6 ATS L9 vs AFC

WSH: 5-2 'under' L7 away vs AFC
WSH: 8-4-1 ATS L13 away underdog
MIA: 3-12 ATS L15 home favorite
MIA: 7-0 'under' L7 overall

NOR: 5-10 ATS L15 vs division
NOR: 4-8 ATS L12 off home win
ATL: 7-3 ATS L10 vs division
ATL: 13-7 ATS L20 home

STL: 0-6 ATS L6 away
STL: 4-2 ATS L6 vs AFC
CLE: 2-8-2 ATS L12 home favorite
CLE: 1-5-1 ATS L6 home vs NFC

ARZ: 1-7 ATS L8 off win
ARZ: 3-7 ATS L10 away underdog
PHI: 1-5 ATS L6 home favorite
PHI: 4-7 ATS L11 off loss





Sunday, Nov. 13 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

BAL: 5-1 'over' L6 away vs NFC
BAL: 3-5 ATS L8 off division win
SEA: 9-4 ATS L13 home
SEA: 0-5-1 ATS L6 vs AFC





Sunday, Nov. 13 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

DET: 6-2 ATS L8 vs division
DET: 6-1 'under' L7 off bye
CHI: 12-4 'over' L16 overall
CHI: 7-2 ATS L9 off away win

NYG: 9-1 ATS L10 away off away game
NYG: 2-5 ATS L7 off away win
SFO: 5-0-1 ATS L6 home
SFO: 6-1-1 ATS L8 off away win





Sunday, Nov. 13 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers
NEP: 2-5 ATS L7 off loss
NEP: 6-2 ATS L8 vs division
NYJ: 9-2 ATS L11 off division game
NYJ: 8-3 ATS L11 vs division





Monday, Nov. 14 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

MIN: 4-1-1 ATS L6 off bye
MIN: 1-6 ATS L7 off win
GBP: 7-1 ATS L8 home
GBP: 8-1 ATS L9 off away win





Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
11/08/2011 08:28 PM

Chargers, Raiders Thursday Night NFL Betting Action

First place in the wide open AFC West is on the line as the San Diego Chargers host the Oakland Raiders this Thursday night.

The NFL Network will broadcast the weeknight affair with the kickoff at 8:20 p.m. (ET). San Diego is currently a 6 ½-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen.

The AFC West was a three-way tie entering Week 9 and remains that way after Oakland lost to Denver, San Diego fell to Green Bay and Kansas City was upset by Miami, leaving the Chargers, Raiders and Chiefs all at 4-4, with the Denver Broncos just one game behind at 3-5. Every division rivalry game will be magnified down the stretch with the AFC West completely up for grabs.

San Diego (4-4) had an entertaining shootout against Green Bay, but still came up just short in the 45-38 loss at home. The loss was the Chargers’ third straight both straight up and against the spread, dropping the Bolts to 2-6 ATS on the season.

Philip Rivers’ performance Sunday (four touchdowns and three interceptions) was a fitting representation of San Diego’s offense this season. The Chargers have the fourth best passing attack in the NFL averaging 294.9 passing yards per game, but Rivers also leads the NFL in interceptions with 14.

San Diego, and Rivers specifically, will need to do a better job protecting the ball down the stretch.

Oakland (4-4) looked to be on the way to a win over Denver last week, but everything unraveled in the second half. In the end, the Raiders lost 38-24 and the run defense gave up a humiliating 299 yards on the ground.

Carson Palmer received mixed reviews in his first start as a Raider, passing for 332 yards and three touchdowns but also throwing three interceptions. Oakland is clearly missing Darren McFadden (out with a foot injury) on offense after losing a second straight game without him.

The former Arkansas standout is listed as questionable for Thursday.

The Raiders swept the season series from the Chargers in 2010, and have covered the last four meetings against the Bolts. San Diego had won 13 straight games against Oakland before last year's defeats and was 11-3 ATS against them in the previous 14 games. Has Oakland turned the tide, or will San Diego regain control of the series this year?

The total has gone ‘under’ in seven of San Diego’s last eight games at home overall and in five of the last six home games when hosting the Raiders. Both teams are 4-4 'over/under' this campaign. The total hasn’t been released yet as bookmakers are likely waiting for an update on the status of McFadden.

A cloudy evening is in the forecast for San Diego on Thursday when the thermometer is expected to be in the low-to-mid 60s for kickoff.


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Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
11/08/2011 08:31 PM

Week 10 Preview: Raiders at Chargers

OAKLAND RAIDERS (4-4)

at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-4)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: San Diego -7, Total: 49

The first Thursday night game of the 2011 NFL season pairs two struggling franchises, each with injured No. 1 running backs, when Raiders match up with the Chargers.

Oakland has dropped two straight games without RB Darren McFadden (foot), who is not expected to be ready when Thursday rolls around. San Diego has lost three straight games, including the last one without RB Ryan Mathews (groin). He is questionable to play on Thursday. After losing 13 straight meetings, the Raiders stunned San Diego twice last year and have a chance to upset an underachieving Chargers team again. San Diego had recovered from a slow start only to see its momentum defused at home in a 28-13 loss to Oakland last year. In that game, the Raiders rushed for 251 yards on 52 carries, controlling the clock for 38:39 and limiting the Chargers to 286 yards of offense. Then-QB Jason Campbell threw 16 passes in that game, so the Raiders don’t necessarily need a big night from Carson Palmer, who has been shaky so far. Even without McFadden on the field, the pick here is for OAKLAND, which is 7-0 ATS in division road games since 2009, to cover the spread.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Raiders:

Play Against - Home favorites (SAN DIEGO) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.5 YPC) against a poor rushing defense (>=4.5 YPC) after 8+ games. (43-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +25.4 units. Rating = 3*).

In six starts under Campbell, Oakland turned the ball over just seven times. But new QB Carson Palmer has already thrown six interceptions in two games. Palmer has completed fewer than 50% of his passes (27-of-56), but he showed some encouraging signs in last week’s loss to Denver, throwing for 332 yards on 9.5 YPA and three touchdowns. WR Jacoby Ford caught five of his six targets for 105 yards and a TD, and rookie Denarius Moore had a dozen balls thrown in his direction, but he only caught four of those. Without McFadden, Michael Bush will once again receive the bulk of the rushing workload. Bush has rushed for 195 yards on 36 carries (5.4 YPC) in the past two weeks, and has also chipped in 45 receiving yards and touchdown.

Oakland’s defense was shredded by Denver last week to the tune of 299 rushing yards on 7.9 YPC. The Raiders now rank fourth-worst in the league with 140 rushing YPG allowed. However, the passing defense held strong during the recent three-game homestand, limiting opposing QBs to a 47% completion rate and 477 passing yards (159 YPG).

San Diego QB Philip Rivers continues to struggle through a miserable season, tallying a league-high 14 interceptions. Rivers is hoping he can change his fortunes against a Raiders team he has beaten eight out of 10 times in his career. Despite the large volume of picks, Rivers ranks fourth in the NFL with 309 passing yards per game. The injury bug has bitten San Diego all season and starting WR Malcom Floyd could miss his second straight game with a hip injury. This comes at an inopportune time considering Floyd caught 13 passes for 285 yards in the two games against Oakland last year. Fellow WR Vincent Jackson has been bothered by a leg injury, but he is coming off his best game of the year, catching seven passes for 141 yards and 3 TD in the loss to Green Bay. The Chargers have not done a good job rushing the football during their losing skid, gaining just 283 yards on 3.9 YPC. They rushed for just 112 yards (3.3 YPC) in the two losses to Oakland last year, showing that an effective ground game will go a long way towards winning.

San Diego’s defense continues to limit opposing air attacks, ranking fourth in the NFL with 192 passing YPG allowed. The Chargers are a pedestrian 18th in rushing defense, giving up 120 YPG.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:24218 Followers:32
11/08/2011 08:36 PM

DON BEST LINEMAKERS POLL - NFL Power Rankings

RANK TEAM RATING LAST

1 Green Bay Packers 101.1 1

2 New England Patriots 98.0 2

3 Baltimore Ravens 97.8 3

T-4 New Orleans Saints 97.3 5

T-4 Pittsburgh Steelers 97.3 4

T-6 New York Jets 96.0 T-6

T-6 Houston Texans 96.0
T-6

8 New York Giants 95.4 12

9 Philadelphia Eagles 94.9 8

10 Detroit Lions 94.6 11

11 San Diego Chargers 94.4 10

T-12 Dallas Cowboys 93.8 T-14

T-12 Buffalo Bills 93.8 9

14 San Francisco 49ers 93.6 16

15 Chicago Bears 93.5 13

16 Atlanta Falcons 93.3 T-14

17 Cincinnati Bengals 92.1 T-17

18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 91.3 T-17

19 Oakland Raiders 90.9 19

20 Kansas City Chiefs 89.8 20

21 Tennessee Titans 89.5 21

T-22 Washington Redskins 89.3 22

T-22 Carolina Panthers 89.3 23

24 Minnesota Vikings 89.0 24

25 Arizona Cardinals 87.9 25

26 Denver Broncos 87.5 T-28

27 Cleveland Browns 87.0 26

28 Miami Dolphins 86.9 30

29 Jacksonville Jaguars 86.4 T-28

30 St. Louis Rams 86.1 27

31 Seattle Seahawks 86.0 31

32 Indianapolis Colts 84.4 32

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: