NFL TEAM TECH TRENDS TO WATCH!
Following is a quick team-by-team look at recent NFL pointspread and "totals" trends through last weekend.
Arizona...Cards have covered a couple of times on the road this season, but their extended spread marks as a visitor are still subpar (4-11 last 15 away since late 2009). Arizona has been a reliable "over" play for the past six years, posting a 66-42 "over" mark since 2005 (16-9-1 last 26 since late 2009). Atlanta...Falcons stirring in recent weeks with three straight covers. Despite dropping first three vs. line on road this season, Atlanta still 11-5 vs. spread as visitor since middle of 2009 campaign. Baltimore...Although Ravens are unbeaten straight up in four outings as host in 2011 (3-1 vs. line in those games), Baltimore has been decidedly average against the number at home since early in the 2009 campaign, covering only half of its 18 games on the board as host. They've fared well, however, in recent games vs. AFC North rival Cleveland (Ravens 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 vs. line against Brownies since 2008; next meeting Dec. 4). Buffalo...Bills only 4-7 vs. spread in Orchard Park since HC Chan Gailey arrived last season. They have covered 7 of their last 9 as a road dog since early last season, however.
Carolina...Panthers showing a bit more life since rookie QB Cam Newton arrived on scene, now "over" 5-3 halfway thru 2011 campaign after going "under" 15-7-1 previous 23 at the end of the John Fox regime. "Cam-o-lina" has also covered 4 of its last five as a dog this season and is 6-1 vs. the spread its last seven vs. Saints (next meeting Jan. 1). Chicago...Bears trending "under" (28-19-2 last 49 prior to Eagles Monday) since midway in 2008 campaign, especially on road (8-1-2 "under" last 11 away from Solider Field before Philly). Cincinnati...Bengals a revelation in first half of 2011 and have won and covered their last five, also 7-1 vs. spread their first eight in 2011. But Cincy still just 2-10 as Paul Brown Stadium chalk since 2009 (1-1 in 2011). Cincy also "over" 4-0-1 away this season. Cleveland...Browns on an extended pointspread funk, just 2-14 vs. line last sixteen since mid 2010.
Dallas...Cowboys are 6-1 as a dog since HC Jason Garrett relieved Wade Phillips of duties last season. But they're also 2-8 as a home favorite since 2010 (2-4 in role for Garrett). Dallas "under" last 4 in 2011 after "over" 16-4 in 20 games prior. Denver...Broncos are "over" 23-7 since late in the 2009 campaign. Denver also hasn't covered at home in four tries this season and is just 3-11 vs. spread its last 14 as host. Detroit...Lions 18-5-1 vs. spread since beginning of 2010 campaign, and 8-1-1 last ten away fro Ford Field. They're also "over" 6-0-1 their last seven on road. Green Bay...Packers 14-0 SU and 11-3 vs. spread last 14 since late 2010, as well as 8-2 vs. spread mark last ten away from home.
Houston...Texans "under" 6-3 this season since arrival of d.c. Wade Phillips (and two of those "overs" were very narrowly so). Houston also 5-1 vs. spread last six at Reliant Stadium, although they're just 3-7 vs. the number their last ten away (2-2 in 2011). Indianapolis...Sagging Colts 0-9 SU and 2-7 vs. line this season minus Peyton Manning. Who said Indy was a one-man team? Jacksonville...Low-scoring Jags "under" 7-1 this season after "over" 12-5 previous 17 games. Kansas City...Chiefs' recent 5-game cover streak ended last week by Miami. KC also "under" 7-2-1 last 10 at Arrowhead.
Miami...Dolphins continue "inside-out" spread form under HC Tony Sparano, now 20-8 vs. spread last 28 away since early 2008, with no covers last seven or 19 of last 24 at Sun Life Stadium. Dolphins also "over" 13-6 last 19 at home, while "under" last five and 11 of last 13 away. Minnesota...Vikings "over" 7-2 last nine as host. New England...Patriots were "over" 20-4 in 24-game stretch until mid-October when they began current three-game "under" run. New Orleans...Saints have been formful in 2011, covering all four at Superdome and dropping four of five vs. line on road. New Orleans just 2-8 vs. number last 10 away from Superdome. Note Saints have bounced back with covers after first three SU losses in 2011.
NY Giants...Tom Coughlin is 23-7 vs. number his last 30 as an underdog dating to early 2006. NY Jets...Rex Ryan's bunch surprisingly "over" 23-9 its last 32 games since late in the 2009 campaign. Jets on mild uptick at moment with thee straight wins and covers after last week's win over Bills. Oakland...Raiders have covered first three tries as a road underdog this season and are 7-3 vs. line their last ten in role. Oakland also 7-2 SU and vs. line last nine vs. AFC West foes since 2010 (though no covers last two TY after Denver loss). Philadelphia...Andy Reid just 4-7 his last 11 as Linc chalk since late in 2009 campaign. Birds have also just covered 5 of their last 13 at home entering last Monday's game vs. Bears. File this away for next year, but Reid also now 13-0 SU after bye weeks since taking assuming Philly job in 1999. Eagles also "under" 6-2 last eight at home.
Pittsburgh...Steelers 10-5 vs. spread at Heinz Field since 2010. Once-pronounced "over" trend at home has flattened lately (now 9-7 "under" last 16 as host). Steelers also 6-0 vs. number off a SU loss since last season. San Diego...Chargers 3-8 their last 11 as road chalk since late in the 2009 season, with two of those covers against outmanned Denver. San Francisco...Maybe the NFL's top storyline of 2011, with 49ers 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 vs. spread for first-year HC Jim Harbaugh. San Francisco is also 14-5-3 vs. spread at Candlestick Park since midway in the 2008 season (post-Mike Nolan). Seattle...Pete Carroll has quietly covered 5 of his last 6 in 2011. Seahawks also 8-4 vs. spread at newly-renamed Century Link Field since Carroll arrived in 2010, and "over" 8-3 last 11 as host.
St. Louis...Rams recently broke a 7-game spread losing streak that extended to the end of the 2010 season. Rams also "under" 5-0-1 last six away and "under" 9-4 last 13 overall. Tampa Bay...Bucs have covered 2 of first 4 at home this season, but please note 5-17-1 mark vs. line last 23 at Raymond James Stadium since late in the 2008 campaign. Tampa Bay also no covers last three away this season after covering 10 of its previous 11 on road. Tennessee...Titans 2-6 vs. spread their last 8 away from Nashville. Tennessee also just 2-5 its last 7 as chalk. Washington...Skins sinking with no wins or covers last four in 2011. They're also "under" 6-2 this season and "under" 12-3 their last 15 since midway in the 2010 campaign. Washington, however, has covered 6 of last 7 vs. hated Dallas after late September Monday cover at Arlington; Skins see Cowboys next Nov. 20.